Military Review

Matter of chance. Is America Bored Without World War II?

48
It turned out that now two messages to the world are being simultaneously discussed: the American analyst Graham Allison and his Russian colleagues Sergey Karaganov and Dmitry Suslov.




From the back of Thucydides


Allison, an expert on American national security, wrote a book about the fatal inevitability of war in a situation where one state grows political power and the other loses it. He counted 16 such cases in storiesstarting with the ancient Greek Peloponnesian wars of the Greek historian Thucydides. He called this sacramental situation "the trap of Thucydides," and slams it - this is a surprise! - any accident like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914. Or deliberate provocation?

Scientifically, this is called a conflict between the hegemonic state and the aspirant state, it turns out, on hegemony. Stalin said best of all about this conflict in the joke attributed to him: “Both are worse!” Allison analyzes in his book the emerging conflict between the US hegemon and the candidate China, but Russia is also nearby. It turns out that China and Russia are declared pretenders to hegemony, and if anyone blames the US hegemon for aggression, then both China and Russia can also be accused of aggression as “pretenders to hegemony”. “Both are worse!”

Our answer to Thucydides


Karaganov and Suslov wrote the report “A New Understanding of Multilateral Strategic Stability”, ignoring the postulate of Thucydides-Allison on the theoretical aspiration of Russia as a pretender to establish its hegemony. The authors of the report believe that the harsh actions of Moscow in Ukraine only stopped the expansion of the United States, breaking the wonderful picture of the world of American hegemony from Francis Fukuyama, also an American political scientist.

The conflict in Ukraine is caused by the US desire to “impose its own rules on Russia,” and the Kiev Maidan does not smell by any chance. The struggle in Ukraine goes more than for Crimea, for the Donbass and for Ukraine: it goes for changing the behavior of the United States, its policy of ultimatums to the world, which they have been practicing for more than 20 years on the basis of hegemony, amended international law. Allison, starting from Thucydides, declares this conflict to be Russia's claim to hegemony, and this brings the theoretical justification for "Russian aggression" on the pages of world fake news. Feel the difference between these two messages to the world!

According to Graham Allison, the Peloponnesian Wars of Ancient Greece, which was described by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, still remain relevant. Now, if the ancient Greeks had atomic weaponwould they apply it? Perhaps, yes, and Thucydides would not exist then, not to mention Allison. Fortunately, Thucydides did not write about us. Therefore, if the United States abandons its mania of world domination, then Allison will not need any Thucydides. If the USA ceases to demand from Russia and China to “change its behavior” and lie under America, under the threat of war, through blackmail and ultimatums, it will be possible to consider the role of the case at the beginning of the war.

On the role of American political scientists


Once, Francis Fukuyama announced the “end of history” and the victory of American liberalism loudly and to thunderous applause from the world, now another American political scientist explains to us how Fukuyama was mistaken. Then some other political scientist will explain to the world Allison’s mistakes. In our opinion, all of them are trying to theoretically justify the all-goodness of US world domination. In practice, today Washington is not allowed to solve it in an American way, China and Russia, or Russia and China, it does not matter. This is the bin of Thucydides-Allison about the hegemonic state and the candidate states.

Essentially speaking, the historian Thucydides, the political scientist Allison, justifies the start of a new world war, which no one wants, but thucydides circumstances and the case cannot be undone. What does Allison's thucydidic strategy mean practically? The United States does not give up claims to world domination, they plan a world war, Allison’s theory convinces the world that the United States does not want war, but it can still begin by accident, according to Thucydides.

Essentially speaking, we see an attempt to justify the start of a future war from the aggressor, an attempt to turn arrows on Thucydides and His Majesty the case, because we must not forget: Graham Allison is a US citizen, and aggressors usually give out a planned provocation as an “accident”. In fact, Allison justifies the start of a world war that could become nuclear!

So the story is texted


Allison declares all world wars, or those approaching them in scale, such as the Crimean War of the 19th century, a matter of chance: no one wants to fight - and here you are! Even the Peloponnesian Wars of Ancient Greece: Athens against Sparta. And who is Athens today, and who is Sparta? And in the Second World War? And in the US Vietnam War, in the Middle East US wars, in the bombing of Yugoslavia by the United States and NATO?

In fact, Allison, starting with Thucydides, rewrites history under the next political order of the United States: supposedly no one ever wants to fight, and the United States too. No, there are always those who really want to fight, and there are more than enough candidates for the role of Hitler today. Allison declares that they are not. But there are circumstances: some countries rise, others lose their political influence, and in what here news? The news in the doctrine of Graham Allison: to blame the responsibility for all wars on circumstances and chance, and the ruling elites, prime ministers and presidents have nothing to do with it.

War history


Natalia Basovskaya, our famous historian who specialized in Western Europe, once bitterly stated: “The history of mankind is the history of wars, we are the civilization of war.”

But nuclear weapons eliminated world wars between great powers and deprived us of this most important value and strategy. With the 1945 of the year, the history of the great world began (local wars do not count here), but the great powers still cannot find any other value and strategy. How do they feel in this great world? They fall into boredom and degradation of the elites, fall into "strategic parasitism", according to Sergey Karaganov.
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  1. NF68
    NF68 18 September 2019 15: 14
    +4
    It is advisable to fight with the wrong hands. We are out of business. And that’s it.
    1. AU Ivanov.
      AU Ivanov. 18 September 2019 15: 20
      +3
      And on foreign territory.
      1. NF68
        NF68 18 September 2019 15: 21
        +2
        Quote: AU Ivanov.
        And on foreign territory.


        By itself. Otherwise, why bother to start these wars.
        1. Tatar 174
          Tatar 174 19 September 2019 05: 31
          +2
          Quote: NF68
          It is advisable to fight with the wrong hands. We are out of business. And that’s it.

          Quote: AU Ivanov.
          And on foreign territory.

          Quote: NF68
          By itself. Otherwise, why bother to start these wars.

          It's not about that ... Except for one thing, "We are not in business.", And all this is just business and nothing personal. This is how Americans like to say in films and probably in life. This business and competitors must be removed as you like, but so that they disappear, and any plausible excuse can be found. So they are looking for an excuse.
        2. SERGEY SERGEEVICS
          SERGEY SERGEEVICS 19 September 2019 10: 48
          0
          Quote: NF68
          Quote: AU Ivanov.
          And on foreign territory.


          By itself. Otherwise, why bother to start these wars.

          In order to get money from the sale of weapons, one could receive, in this case, they muddied everything for this.
        3. Alber
          Alber 24 September 2019 19: 25
          0
          Quote: NF68
          Quote: AU Ivanov.
          And on foreign territory.


          By itself. Otherwise, why bother to start these wars.


          Nevertheless, international Zionofascism is trying to draw Russia into some kind of conflict, constantly provoking it. For them, any war is a profit. Gesheft
      2. Evil echo
        Evil echo 18 September 2019 19: 31
        0
        Well, on their own hands, they won’t be able to defend themselves. If the aggressor comes, then it will not work out, everyone will get it.
        1. AU Ivanov.
          AU Ivanov. 18 September 2019 19: 35
          0
          That’s the aggressor’s need, as long as he doesn’t descend, to bend with the wrong hands and on foreign territory.
          1. Evil echo
            Evil echo 19 September 2019 21: 31
            0
            It seems to me that everything is somewhat more complicated. This requires not only funds and a strong will, but some kind of foresight of the future. It is easy to find and arm "alien hands", it is hard to control where these arms are turned.
            1. Chaldon48
              Chaldon48 23 September 2019 01: 58
              0
              Who will look for the wrong hands to put nuclear weapons in them. The United States is training German pilots, but they are unlikely to decide.
        2. NF68
          NF68 19 September 2019 16: 19
          0
          Quote: Evil Echo
          Well, on their own hands, they won’t be able to defend themselves. If the aggressor comes, then it will not work out, everyone will get it.


          But with the wrong hands you can well harm others.
    2. Muddy Seeing ORACLE
      Muddy Seeing ORACLE 18 September 2019 18: 17
      +3
      And with the wrong hands, and we are not chapels. It was all this already, and it will be again, it is war that is the essence of our civilization, whether we want it or not. Our world has stagnated for 75 years, and progress has stagnated since the middle of the XNUMXth century, so it's time for the little brother to prepare ...
    3. SERGEY SERGEEVICS
      SERGEY SERGEEVICS 19 September 2019 11: 03
      0
      Quote: NF68
      It is advisable to fight with the wrong hands. We are out of business. And that’s it.

      They also get good money from this, for selling weapons to these countries.
  2. Sergey Averchenkov
    Sergey Averchenkov 18 September 2019 15: 18
    +4
    I was always interested - will these fucking political scientists go to war?
    1. Sayan
      Sayan 18 September 2019 16: 35
      +3
      No, of course, chatting is not in the trenches to sit or go on the attack)
      1. Evil echo
        Evil echo 18 September 2019 19: 35
        0
        There were other people far from war
        https://russia.tv/brand/show/brand_id/10321/
      2. brat07
        brat07 19 September 2019 03: 14
        0
        Quote: Sayan
        No, of course, chatting is not in the trenches to sit or go on the attack)

        I think in World War III there will be no trenches and bayonet attacks.
        What will happen?
        And there will be "local" wars. And for the United States, preferably by someone else's hands. "Their gut is thin."
        And the theater will take place on the territory of Eurasia. IMHO.
      3. ccsr
        ccsr 19 September 2019 10: 59
        0
        Quote: Sayan
        No, of course, chatting is not in the trenches to sit or go on the attack)

        They are just not afraid of trenches, because they themselves will not sit there. Their fear of a different order - the inability to survive in a nuclear war makes their minds more sane, which is why if we want to survive as a civilization, we need to constantly invest in creating weapons that are superior to what the enemy has - the United States and China.
    2. mark2
      mark2 18 September 2019 19: 30
      +4
      Of course they won’t. Not for that, they finished printers, harvards and oxwords. The mob goes to slaughter. But people who have invested huge loot in themselves no. They will work on the moral basis of immoral acts.
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 19 September 2019 07: 34
        0
        Quote: mark2
        Of course they won’t. Not for that, they finished printers, harvards and oxwords. The mob goes to slaughter. But people who have invested huge loot in themselves no. They will work on the moral basis of immoral acts.

        Exactly. I am glad that there are people who understand this.
      2. serg v stock
        serg v stock 24 September 2019 13: 23
        -1
        A bunch of people, having graduated from harvards, oxwords, etc., have fought and will fight, otherwise rapid degeneration. The most primitive examples are the grandson of Queen Lisa, the son of Thatcher. It is only on skis that they beat their heads against stones, and then into a straightforward coma. Western elites are much more viable than our summer friends.
  3. faterdom
    faterdom 18 September 2019 15: 22
    +5
    the strangest thing is that we attach importance to the ravings of these political scientists, especially American ones! After all, American! And how are they smarter and better than the same Vadim Karasev, or, remember by night, Kovtun?
    1. Evdokim
      Evdokim 18 September 2019 19: 10
      -1
      Quote: faterdom
      And how are they smarter and better than the same Vadim Karasev, or, remember by night, Kovtun?

      These ukropolitrechuny as a selection of winners of the Shnobel Prize of eternal peace and love on earth for each other. wassat
  4. Egor53
    Egor53 18 September 2019 15: 48
    +4
    In the event of any, even non-nuclear, strike against the United States, this country will fall apart in a matter of months. At least 50 million (with the richest) Americans will leave the country at the first blows to infrastructures. The dollar will collapse once every 10.
    Americans are extremely cowardly. I lived in the United States for 1,5 years, and I know this country pretty well.
    The patriotism of Americans is limited only by hanging flags.
  5. Rwmos
    Rwmos 18 September 2019 15: 59
    +4
    The problem is. that sociology is sociology, but there are also factors that can be measured in numbers.
    America is unable to fight even the current wars. Not enough corny troops. On local, I note, wars! For a global war. with a competitor - no conventional troops, even more so. Then there are two phrases - "war is the continuation of politics by other means" and "politics is a concentrated expression of economics." Clausewitz and Lenin. In other words, it makes sense to fight if there is a profit, and this is possible only in a conventional war. Not to mention the fact that such a war between nuclear powers will still develop into an atomic one, where there will be no profit due to the lack of surviving states. the United States simply has NO funds for the war, however, China and Russia too.
    Well, and what kind of war? Local conflicts by proxy - are and will be. By the way, this is a long-standing difference between the confrontations of modern times - since the onset of nuclear weapons, wars have become indirect between states - and this is already an accomplished fact. Hello to Allison.
    1. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 18 September 2019 17: 14
      +1
      "" "" 2.5.6. At the same time, it would be erroneous to consider the new state of the military-strategic landscape stable. The main danger is the possibility of a military conflict between nuclear powers, including unintended and non-nuclear, with further, more likely than in the past, escalation to the level of global nuclear war. The prerequisites for such a conflict and situations due to which it could have occurred have become much more recent. In particular, such a conflict may result from:
      • cyber attacks against SPRN satellites and critical infrastructure, including from third countries and non-state players;
      • technical error SPRN;
      • dangerous miscalculations and errors in the US interpretation of the nuclear doctrines of Russia and China and vice versa, capable of provoking a nuclear war (for example, erroneous assumptions are made that Russia will not deliver a strategic nuclear strike against the United States in the event of a non-nuclear missile attack on Russia or the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons against it ; or that Russia will use non-strategic nuclear weapons as soon as it begins to lose in a non-nuclear war on foreign territory, and that this should be compensated by non-strategic US nuclear weapons on mobile carriers);
      • getting out of control of regional tensions and the use of military force at the local and regional level using non-nuclear weapons (Baltic, Black and South China Sea; American experts consider the military conflict between Russia the most likely scenario for a war between Russia and the United States with nuclear escalation and the Baltic countries);
      • collisions of military ships and aircraft due to dangerous proximity;
      • accidental or deliberate local military clashes in regional conflicts (Venezuela, Syria).
      • getting out of control of the military situation in Europe in the case of the deployment of American medium- and shorter-range missiles in Central and Eastern Europe and low-power nuclear weapons on strategic carriers near Russian borders; similar developments in Asia;
      • drawing nuclear powers into military conflicts in the immediate vicinity of their borders (USA and China around North Korea, Russia and the USA around Ukraine).

      2.5.7. We repeat: due to the ever-increasing interweaving of nuclear and non-nuclear, strategic and non-strategic weapons, it will be more and more difficult to prevent the non-nuclear military conflict between Russia-USA and China-USA from escalating into a global nuclear war. These same factors further reduce the chances — and even illusory ones — to limit nuclear war to a “tactical” or local level “” (REPORT New understanding and ways to strengthen multilateral strategic stability S. A. Karaganov, D. V. Suslov)
      1. Rwmos
        Rwmos 18 September 2019 17: 24
        0
        I repeat, for such a scenario, the first step is needed - a local conflict. And on him the US stupidly has no troops !!! That is why what follows is a pure theory.
        Example: How CAN attack the base in Syria the USA? The air force there is not enough to break through air defense, and it will not destroy this base. A missile strike has already been seen in Syria - zero effect. There is simply nothing physically to carry out an army, ground operation, if the goal is to destroy !!! base, and thereby achieve profit in the conflict by taking control of Syrian oil.
        So. all that can be done in Syria with the base of the Russian Federation of the USA is to inflict LIMITED DAMAGE on a single raid, with a guaranteed response. No profit (base not liquidated) - conflict is impossible
      2. serg v stock
        serg v stock 24 September 2019 13: 36
        0
        A lot of bukaff. Do you seriously think that the above text reflects reality? For example, what should the United States and China not divide to strike each other with heat and light? And what should they share with Russia? Capitalism, my friend, you need to make money, for this you can fuck Syria or Egypt. Latin America is not yet plowed.
  6. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 18 September 2019 16: 05
    -2
    But nuclear weapons eliminated world wars between great powers and deprived us of this most important value and strategy.
    But nonsense. They fought a lot. Korea, Cuba, Vietnam ... the battlefield was ours. feel
    The history of the great world began in 1945 (local wars do not count here),
    And so, ali porridge is not bite? feel
    but the great powers cannot find any other value or strategy.
    But we do not mind, blow, yes slurp (according to Suvorovsky)
    How do they feel about this great world? Fall into boredom and degradation of elites, fall into "strategic parasitism"
    Bast, either about the priest, or about Yerema ... feel
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. Sergey39
    Sergey39 18 September 2019 16: 51
    +2
    And the ancient Greeks came up with democracy. Which did not stop them from combining it with slavery.
  9. To be or not to be
    To be or not to be 18 September 2019 16: 54
    +1
    http://svop.ru/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/REPORT_Rus_1.pdf
    REPORT
    New insights and ways
    multilateral
    strategic stability
    S.A. Karaganov, D.V. Suslov
    55 pages, not a word in the report on the Thucydides trap and about Ukraine, I missed blindly (there are a lot of letters) ..
    1. parusnik
      parusnik 18 September 2019 17: 23
      +1
      Yes, where does this report come from? laughing
  10. Pavel57
    Pavel57 18 September 2019 16: 56
    +1
    Humanity does not change. And the reason is the essence of man.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 18 September 2019 17: 22
    +2
    The conflict in Ukraine is caused by the US desire to “impose its own rules on Russia,” and the Kiev Maidan does not smell by any chance. The fight in Ukraine is more
    .... Again about the sea .... smile I noticed ... whatever the author writes, the theme is Ukraine, the USA .. Trump .. smile ... I've always been surprised ... constantly in articles, they don’t even write about this author to Russia. They force Russia, but they almost never write why? ..
  12. Catfish
    Catfish 18 September 2019 17: 32
    +2
    America bored without world war


    "- I'm bored devil ...
    - What to do, Faust ... "

    (C) A.S. Pushkin request
  13. Retvizan 8
    Retvizan 8 18 September 2019 18: 37
    0
    ... "America is bored without a world war" ...
    It’s just that they’ve never received muslims.
  14. evgen1221
    evgen1221 18 September 2019 19: 02
    0
    A generation of Americans brought up at one center of power with their own propaganda of their own exclusivity will naturally force the theory to fit the desired result - the United States is the best, without leadership and hegemony of the states, kayuk for all and without our peacekeeping missions in Iraq and the rest the whole world will turn into chaos . No other research results are foreseen or considered because America Call is still on the list.
  15. O. Bender
    O. Bender 18 September 2019 20: 27
    0
    The Americans themselves will not succumb to the mess, they will send satellites, and only then it can be. Assessing the benefits and losses, as it was in the Second World War, it was the Second World War and not WWII.
  16. evgeniy.plotnikov.2019mail.ru
    evgeniy.plotnikov.2019mail.ru 18 September 2019 23: 45
    0
    I did not read the messages. I will discuss the article by Kamenev. What kind of ,, history of the great world ,,? The US state and its allies destroyed the state of the USSR and its allies (no long ago GDR, SFRY, Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc.) Celebrated the victory, issued a medal and awarded the sacrament. Including the well-known living villain and the traitor to the Motherland. Nuclear weapons weren’t used? It couldn’t be! The citizens of the USSR with increased radiation were definitely not familiar? They didn’t die massively from radiation sickness? Or it was, it was,? Experts say that there are some questions on Chernobyl to the United States. Only who will ask them? ,, He exploded ... ,, What a world? America is a beautiful country of a freedom-loving and hardworking American people. But the US STATE is partly controlled by ordinary nonhumans, (by the way, the current
    the owner of the White House is definitely not one of them) who organized, for example, World War II, the Cold War, the war on terrorism. Millions of slain! And they are TOTALLY different. Do not agree with them. You need to fight with them, and not with the country of America. Adequate intelligence agencies working for the benefit of PEOPLE should, pointwise, solve the problems of peace and war, and not the missiles ,, Voivode ,, (,, Iskander ,,, ,, Petrel ,,, ,, Dagger, etc.) War neither Russians, nor Jews, nor Americans, nor Chinese need ... Wars are needed for those for whom people are raw materials, for example, for the production of soap. Or ladies' gloves. Or perfume. Theories and messages are wonderful. And who will stop the Ghoul?
  17. UrraletZ
    UrraletZ 19 September 2019 08: 11
    0
    sergey karaganov, if the war starts, then where will you run to - in London or in New York, go to where your money is hidden?
    1. ccsr
      ccsr 19 September 2019 11: 02
      0
      Quote: UrraletZ
      sergey karaganov, if the war starts, then where will you run,

      He changed his shoes long ago - now he is a "patriot", and he will not run anywhere, because he knows that everything will be destroyed there too.
  18. SERGEY SERGEEVICS
    SERGEY SERGEEVICS 19 September 2019 10: 57
    0
    Is America Bored Without World War II?
    Naturally, whoever doubted this, or money would have flowed, a river could flow to them, and so simple.
  19. 1536
    1536 19 September 2019 13: 58
    0
    Aha, and the world war cannot be without the USA? Does this mean the end of ping-pong diplomacy and panda diplomacy? Is "the beginning of history" coming, a new era - shid? And the US manufacturing workshop has become an independent plant that will lead all of humanity into the future?
    If so, then the PRC should now be preparing to cast grandiose monuments from bronze, which they will put on the territory of the liberated States in honor of the victory over the obscurantism of capitalism, to sew a red flag to hoist it over the Capitol in commemoration of the greatest victory.
    And what about Russia?
    Practice shows that usually, before "throwing down America's glove," the aggressor tries to do away with Russia first. The question is, who is the aggressor? And isn't it time to secretly lay a dozen or so low-yield nuclear bombs along the border with its eastern neighbor? So, just in case ...
    So, in a logical way, you come (or are you being led?) To the understanding that our main "friend and partner" is the United States. Who would doubt that. And in order to match the "partner" you need "restructuring 2.0". And no war! As the Pole Brzezinski said there: "The world will develop at the expense of Russia." The Poles know a lot about this. And all this fuss after such words is nonsense in vegetable oil.
    As required.
  20. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 20 September 2019 09: 17
    0
    Well, the author (as usual) did not very well understand the American. Longing ... In general, the main American message is the NEED for world hegemony. Like, without the hegemony of anyone over everyone else, history is generally impossible. And the Americans can be understood! They put absolutely everything on hegemony.
    At the same time, with the main feature of the American way of life, namely, with no restrained, insane, unquenchable greed, to satisfy which there are no barriers and obstacles, and in the brief moment of real hegemony, and before it, during the times of growing influence, America heaped such that they, in fact, have no way from the top.
    It is worth the hegemony to slip out of your hands, and under the weight of debts, both monetary and material, as well as those that need to be paid in blood, America will simply disappear. And anyone with an American passport will be caught all over this small ball in order to at least take it to organs, and at the very least - to take him, his family and the rascal dog into indefinite slavery to pay off at least part of the claims.
    You will remember here and Fukuyama, and Thucydides, and anyone else. For the United States, a world war, in which debts will be burned along with the creditors, is practically the only way. Of course, you can try to "make great again." But I doubt something ...
  21. Alexey G
    Alexey G 21 September 2019 00: 46
    0
    Great article! Really curious. Thanks to the author
  22. Tektor
    Tektor 24 September 2019 17: 47
    0
    Only the day before yesterday I listened to Dragan's new predictions for 2020 ... It will be very tough. There will be two situations on the brink of war: at the very beginning of the year and the very end ... Dragan predicts the collapse of the states at the end of 2020 ...
  23. Murad Suleymanov
    Murad Suleymanov 29 September 2019 02: 56
    0
    When I read or hear about the possibility of a world war, I wonder who and against whom will start this war? Here in the article they write that the United States started wars against Vietnam, Iraq, in Yugoslavia the United States and NATO "fought")) But is it not already clear that they are fighting only with those who a priori are not able to give them an adequate rebuff !? Let's take the DPRK as an example, why, while the Koreans clearly ignore the demands of the Americans, do they not fight Korea? After all, the Koreans reacted with disdain to Trump's threats and all their show-offs with naval maneuvers near the coast of Korea were perceived mockingly, disregarding!)) So what ??? It’s ridiculous to imagine that they would even dare to think about a war against Russia! So take it easy! Not when the Yankees dare to attack Russia, the gut is thin and the point plays and sweats with fear !!!!!!
  24. neoshef
    neoshef 29 September 2019 11: 08
    0
    Karaganov correctly said that there should not be any quantitative restriction on any weapon. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the fear of conflict.