Will the European Union survive in 2020?
A step away from Brexit
Today, the world is shuddering at the multitude of events that were scary to even think about yesterday. We are somehow imperceptibly accustomed to the fact that nuclear weapon can be applied during some kind of local conflict. We talk without too much excitement about a war, for example, between the United States and Iran, although we understand that such a war, in its destructive power and consequences, will cause damage no less than World War II. Especially considering the presence in the region of states with nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants. Our calm is simply amazing.
One of the events, which can in many ways “turn the world around”, should happen very soon. Great Britain nevertheless decided to leave the European Union. The same Brexit, about which many have already forgotten, should be carried out on October 31 of 2019 of the year. To understand the essence of Brexit, you need to plunge into history.
It’s a paradox, but today very few even remember the original name of the EU. Not to mention what it was created for. So, the reasons for creating a union of European states lie in the simple human desire of Europeans to live richer, in the desire to somehow equalize the standard of living in Europe in order to stop the migration of the population from poor countries to rich ones.
Simply put, European economy monsters have decided to integrate the economies of poor countries into a single system. This is not the altruism of the rich. This is a sober calculation. Germany, France and the UK received a huge market for their own goods, the rest of the countries significantly raised the standard of living of their citizens. Hence the name of the union: EEC (European Economic Community). By the way, at the first stage the tasks were completed in full.
But then events began to occur that the "rich" of the EEC really ceased to like. True, by this time the EEC has become simply the EU. The countries that rich Europeans contained (and still do) today began to "open their mouths." A great example of this behavior is Poland. The country, which until recently was a poor relative of Germany and France, today claims to have a leading role in the camp of the Young Europeans, pulling the Baltic states, Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries towards itself.
In addition, at some point, these countries simply became a ballast, hampering the development of the economy of “old” Europe. Industry in poor countries was “killed,” and industry opportunities in rich countries were physically limited. At some point, “old Europe” began to simply feed the new EU members.
In my opinion, the last straw of British patience was the new Europeans, the countries of the former socialist camp, which initially joined the EU precisely as ballast, as the core at the feet of a sailor who died in the sea. Which led to the depreciation of the euro and a decline in living standards in rich countries.
And if you add to this a “natural disaster” in the form of millions of new migrants who have invaded European countries and are completely unwilling to integrate into European life, unwilling to work and comply with European laws, the situation becomes almost hopeless. It was then, in 2016, that a referendum was held on Britain's exit from the EU.
Wallet punch
Admittedly, the referendum in Britain was held brilliantly. To achieve the desired result, the ruling conservative party used all available resources. Both legal and illegal. The way the campaign was conducted for the UK exit from the EU has already been included in the political science textbooks of the world's leading universities.
Conservatives "hit the saint" for every Briton - a wallet! Like, we pay a lot of money from your taxes on the maintenance of lazy peoples. Peoples who simply do not want to work. Agree that for the majority of citizens who are not burdened with thoughts about politics, such an argument will cause just anger. “I want the government to spend my taxes on my country, on me! ..”
The vote was a shock for many Britons. More precisely, the country was divided into two irreconcilable camps. Half, more precisely, a little more than half of the citizens of Great Britain voted to leave the EU. Around 52%. Thus, the Brexit mechanism was launched. Great Britain, with its traditional conservatism, began to thoroughly prepare for exit from the EU.
Understanding the severity of the choice came later. When economists and politicians began to calculate the consequences of Brexit. When Scotland and Northern Ireland announced a possible secession from the UK, which meant the collapse of the country. When economists in the media talked about the most complex, multidimensional and unprecedented problems in the economy associated with leaving the EU. Understanding has come, but late.
In Britain itself, parliament gave the go-ahead to exit the EU. Queen Elizabeth signed the relevant law. There remained a ghostly hope for Germany and France, which by force of their authority could change the order of withdrawal from the European Union, which is clearly spelled out in the Lisbon Agreement. But Paris and Berlin pretended not to understand London. No progress has been made regarding the Lisbon Agreement.
The Age of B. Johnson
What about Brexit today? Will the collapse or reformation of the EU be launched, or will the situation be dragged down? Alas, according to the actions that we are observing today, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will close the question of leaving the EU for Britain. And close it completely. This is evidenced not only by Johnson's personal ambitions, but, again, by English conservatism.
It is clear that Boris Johnson really wants to become a modern Churchill. He wants to do something epoch-making. Such as to "go down in the history of Great Britain." By the way, this is what many analysts say. But it seems to me that the matter is not in Johnson's personal ambitions. The situation is much more complicated and dangerous. The political structure of the state is at stake!
He saves the political system of Great Britain, more precisely, one of the foundations of this system. The conservative party, which suffered a crushing defeat during the local elections and the European Parliament in the spring of 2019, when the suddenly emerging Brexit party (the British equivalent of the Ukrainian Servant of the People) was several times ahead of the conservatives.
Today the situation in London is extremely tense. Johnson states that he will no longer ask for any delay in Brexit. These statements led to a split in the Conservative Party. Scotland is already openly declaring separation from Britain.
Forward to the future
Now briefly about the future, to completely close the topic.
If Boris remains the prime minister and does not ask for a postponement, the EU will decide. The term? 31 of October is the last day. So, the EU announces the introduction of hard Brexit from 1 on November 2019. True, there are options. Brexit may be administered for a short time. But this is only if the EU (read: Germany and France) wants to “dump” the final decision on Britain.
But there is a second option. Ghostly, but there. The option of changing the Prime Minister of Great Britain. In fact, this feint of British politicians is quite possible. Considering that even in the camp of Johnson’s fellow party members, there was a split in connection with his actions ... In this case, new negotiations with the EU on the transfer of Brexit are quite possible. Cause? Conducting a second referendum on this issue! But the postponement that the UK can give is not so long. Only 4 months.
In general, if we talk about the prospects for Britain and the European Union in the near future, the situation is critical. “Old Europe” is really tired of the growing appetites of small countries and, quite possibly, it will soon go to reform the EU or return the union to the EEC format.
The change in the political situation in the world simply could not but affect Europe. What this ultimately leads to is not yet clear ...
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