Do not be afraid of robots bringing gifts

What does global warming have to do with it?

Economists, the Ministry of Labor and sociologists, almost interrupting each other, are sounding the alarm: in the next ten to twelve years, almost half of the country's able-bodied population may be left without work. And it’s not the authorities or even the damned “corrupt” opposition that are to blame for all this, but Robots. Yes, yes, those most amazing man-made creations from the cartoons of our childhood, capable of doing many operations better and faster than us, doing any menial work.

The other day, a special study was published on the subject of how mass robotization can affect the labor market. Characteristically, it was not held anywhere in Skolkovo, or at least the Novosibirsk Academgorodok, but at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. According to her, already by the 2030 year, Russia, due to large-scale robotization, is threatened by unemployment of such proportions that half the country will fit to work either in China or even further. At RANEPA, as many as 45,5% of current employees were counted, whose competencies would simply be irrelevant. Academic experts have no doubt that all these people have to either leave the labor market or retrain.

It doesn’t even bother, but is outraged that the results of a very controversial study are presented as if everything predicted will happen literally overnight. It turns out a "horror story" abruptly global warming. In fact, the reality, of course, will be the same as with digitalization and computerization, which swept the whole world fairly quickly, but in general with it, the whole world, to agree.

Personnel that will decide everything

The IT field, programming, mobile communications and a truly colossal gaming industry have become our everyday reality for some ten to fifteen years. And it didn’t scare anyone. Moreover, in all these areas, not even millions, and not tens, but hundreds of millions of jobs appeared, which not only young, grown-up cadres with pleasure, but also people by no means teenagers, took pleasure in.

Specialists from the RANEPA, on behalf of whom the author of the work personally presented the research data, Stepan Zemtsov, acting head of the RANEPA laboratory of business research, made quite a few well-founded conclusions. Of which, however, for some reason not the most reasonable forecasts grow.

It was unlikely that it would be worth mixing the conversation about robots and robots with theses on how many people would be “at risk of digitalization and automation” in one bottle. According to the authors of the study, there will be 20,1 million of them. Also until 2030 of the year? Apparently, yes. In this case, only 2 million a year, which, compared with what we have done these days with pensioners and retirees, is nothing at all.

Stephen Hawking didn’t scare the future with robots, but scares Russian scientists

But it’s hardly worth arguing with such a set of figures in the survey data and in-depth academic analysis of the RANEPA.

Robots can be entrusted with most of the work in the hotel and restaurant business (73% of employees here are at risk of automation), manufacturing (60%), agriculture and forestry (58%), retail (53%) and mining (51 %).

Stepan Zemtsov admits that the mere fact of the ability to automate or robotic a particular type of activity in practice does not mean that one or another employee will be replaced literally tomorrow.

It’s correct to speak specifically about the susceptibility of automation. The process is greatly stretched in time, there is the opportunity to relearn, change their functions.

It is by no means accidental that we recalled above the IT sphere and programming. In these sectors, the need for retraining did not at all cause tragedies; rather, it was something like a personnel revolution. With all indications of robotization, the situation will be exactly the same, especially since someone will have to produce these robots, and then service them.

Is it time to be afraid?

The importance of the global forecast made by RANEPA experts is that it allows you to work ahead of schedule, for the future, creating tools, economic mechanisms, and finally, the legal framework that will help meet the future “world of robots” fully equipped. After all, of course, it is important to ensure a truly massive influx of the latest technology precisely in those areas of the economy where it is not just the most profitable and where it will save people from working in difficult, harmful conditions.

From conversations about metro trains without drivers, even in Russia they are getting down to business. The Yandex company began practical tests of unmanned taxis. In banks, operationists are everywhere replacing terminals, in hotels at the reception - machines. So, is it time to be afraid?

But the robot vacuum cleaner is no longer able to scare anyone

There are very, very big doubts about this. Everything that would be done by man was made out of a desire to make life easier. But all this led to the fact that there was only more work. And resources are getting smaller. So do not be afraid right, but stop and think.

Moreover, the development of technology makes us not so much think about whether the machine will take work, but look for a more interesting and attractive scope of application of our own skills. Which, in which case, and take a short time.

Appropriate tax and other incentives are needed so that robots can be launched into the notorious waste recycling and other environmental programs. Robots simply can not do, solving the problem of radioactive waste disposal.

Therefore, one cannot but pay attention to the fact that robots will be especially in demand among other things in mining. This is a completely special area, where in a number of industries without robots it is simply impossible to talk about any real progress.

It is no coincidence that such attention is now being paid to robotics, for example, at Norilsk Nickel. And it seems that it is by no means accidental that the young residents of a number of northern Russian cities in recent years have collected almost all possible prizes at international competitions and competitions in robotics.

Strange, but somehow not too much while spoiling us the news from the field of robotics from such "advanced points" as Skolkovo or Rusnano. But this only convinces us that many times voiced by many authors of the Military Review, doubts about their effectiveness are still valid.

Comments

[Svarog]

already by 2030, Russia, due to large-scale robotization, is facing unemployment of such proportions that half the country will fit to work either in China or even further. The RANEPA counted as much as 45,5% of current employees whose competencies would simply be irrelevant.

So it’s not a matter of robots, but of the government .. everything goes to the point that work will be harder and harder, and if you don’t take measures, it will either revolt with the revolution or simply all die out quietly, officials and robots will remain ..

[Mestny]

But officials are not people?
You do not ease the glow. Hold rallies. After all, if there is no government, there will be no robots.
This is exactly what your overseas minded people need.

[Svarog]

Quote: Mestny

This is exactly what your overseas minded people need.

My like-minded people are socialists / communists and I’m glad to talk to such people even if they are from overseas ..

Quote: Mestny

Hold rallies. After all, if there is no government, there will be no robots.

So there is no purpose to live without a government, another question is that it should think about the overwhelming majority of its population, and not about a cooperative ..

But officials are not people?

People of course, unless I wrote that they are not people ..

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Svarog

these are socialists \ communists

And even the monarchists! The fact is that globally it does not matter what views you hold, the fact is whether you are a patriot of your country. Local, Kisa, and many others are just patriots of the government, whose merits are stable stagnation. And for some reason it seems to me that this is their work, for which they get paid.

[Svarog]

Quote: Ingvar 72

And even the monarchists!

Yes, in general, you can find a common language with everyone, who is honest and objective. And the local, kitty and others who completely ignore objectivity and reduce everything to absurdity, this is just for the money, otherwise it is difficult to understand. Moreover, it is noticeable that funding has been greatly increased, and the fact that the worse it gets, the more cats and locals are "drowned" for power is also striking.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Ingvar 72

are just patriots of a government whose merit is stable stagnation

Do you even know the meaning of the word "stagnation"?

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Sergey1987

Do you even know the meaning of the word "stagnation"?

I am yes. And you?

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Ingvar 72

I am yes. And you?

I, too, yes, but you seem to not, otherwise they would not have written this nonsense.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Sergey1987

otherwise they would not have written this nonsense.

So far, your words are Achineas, completely devoid of meaning, and absolutely not tied to the topic. People like you are always trying to find fault with the words, not the essence of the comment. You even got it ridiculous. I have an economic "tower", and I know the meaning of the word "stagnation" for sure. I advise you to score in the search engine "stagnation definition", and you will be happy.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Ingvar 72

People like you always try to find fault with the words, not with the essence of the comment.

I did not find fault with the word, but with its use.
Do we have stagnation in production and trade? Have we increased the number of unemployed? Has our salary decreased? Read what stagnation is in the economy, you are an economist. Okay, I'm an engineer and somehow I know this.
Do you know that there is monopolistic and transitional stagnation? According to the idea, the monopolistic one should suit you. You want everything state to be. Stagnation arises as a result of the dominance of monopolistic associations, eliminating competition as an engine of economic development; manifests itself in the trends of economic stagnation, which primarily covers the area of ​​production in which monopolies dominate.

[Ingvar 72]

Stagnation in production? Yes. Absolutely no high-tech industries. Those units mentioned on the site are made, they practically do not play a role.
The number of unemployed has increased, at least follow the statements of government officials.
Salaries have not decreased, but prices have risen.
So all the same, stagnation.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Ingvar 72

Stagnation in production? Yes.

Can then list the factories that have reduced working days?

Quote: Ingvar 72

Absolutely no high-tech industries. Those units mentioned on the site are made, they practically do not play a role.

I’m wondering, do they have a role to play?

Quote: Ingvar 72

The number of unemployed has increased, at least follow the statements of government officials.

Are you kidding, 4,8% is your big unemployment?

Quote: Ingvar 72

Salaries have not decreased, but prices have risen.

For your information, the economist does not have a planned, but a market economy; therefore, prices will always rise, due to inflation, and especially when the ruble becomes cheaper. But there are no sharp price increases in the Russian Federation.

Quote: Ingvar 72

So all the same, stagnation.

So all the same, no.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Sergey1987

Can then list the factories that have reduced working days?

I can list the factories from which thousands of people have been cut, while not reducing the working week.

Quote: Sergey1987

Are you kidding, 4,8% is your big unemployment?

Yes, the rest are self-employed.

Quote: Sergey1987

there are no sharp price increases in the Russian Federation.

Come on? Since the 14th year, price increases have been almost 100 percent.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Ingvar 72

I can list the factories from which thousands of people have been cut, while not reducing the working week.

List, only now you did not think for what reason you reduced it?

Quote: Ingvar 72

Yes, the rest are self-employed.

What kind of figure is the rest? And the fact that they are self-employed does not mean that they are unemployed. If I hire a programmer who works on freelance, this does not mean that he is unemployed.

Quote: Ingvar 72

Come on? Since the 14th year, price increases have been almost 100 percent.

Give an example?

[Cat man null]

Quote: Ingvar 72

I have an economic "tower" ...

... which does not stop you from carrying wild game regularly

Your age is known, you got your "tower" in the year 97 - 98, during the "late Bor Yeltsin" ... the best time to get an economic education, oh ... well, if you haven't bought it before, of course

Quote: Ingvar 72

People like you always try to find fault with the words, not with the essence of the comment.

Man, you always say this when you have nothing to answer. Not tired yet?

Pipes, shackle, pipes ... pipes - yours

[Ingvar 72]

Again you are Kitty depicting a small northern bird. Or do you have a new trend - a fly fly? You should be on time to appeal. That tree, then the cat, then the dog. And now they have imagined themselves to be a fly muzhukhuk.
And in the comments there is still nothing on the topic.

[Cat man null]

Quote: Ingvar 72

in the comments everything is still nothing on the topic

Well, why ... about your highly economic education, for example

Pipes, buddy, pipes ... my condolences

[Ingvar 72]

No kitty, you have no topic. They tried to decompose my education, no more. Yes, it was a long time ago, but I remember a lot. And this has a very distant relation to the topic. Poorly staged definitions of the word stagnation?

[Cat man null]

Quote: Ingvar 72

Poorly staged definitions of the word stagnation?

Easy. On a concrete example. The character, boasting a tower in economics, is trying to teach everyone and everything here, with exorbitant aplomb - while working as a plumber ...

This is real stagnation, buddy

[Ingvar 72]

This is not the stagnation of Kees, this is the degradation of your personality. For in other words your flood does not name.

[A good one]

Quote: Cat Man Null

Quote: Ingvar 72

Poorly staged definitions of the word stagnation?

Easy. On a concrete example. The character, boasting a tower in economics, is trying to teach everyone and everything here, with exorbitant aplomb - while working as a plumber ...

This is real stagnation, buddy

And in those days in each kindergarten there was a legal and economic branch from Moscow, such as in those days he occupied the kindergarten corridors and the girls were bullying the thigh and titted girls, that is, "classmates", and the kids only dreamed of kindergarten.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: TokarevT

Greetings! They forgot to mention Ser-gay1987 in this series. Look, he has already hatched with a comment on the word "stagnation".

An old friend.))) As usual, the forces were enough for two lines.

[depressant]

And they, officials, are special people. Moreover, representatives of the variety "government official". Here, for example, Siluanov:
"There is a lot of money in the budget, the budget is in surplus, the National Welfare Fund is growing. There are 28 trillion rubles on the deposits of companies, but there is no economic growth."
So why do you need us, dear people, if there is no economic growth? To optimistically report to us about this? In a professional sense, you look like you were randomly picked up from the street.
The most that you can offer us is economic growth of a maximum of 1,7% per year, and this despite the fact that the United States grows by 3-4% annually, China - by 6-7%.
But I have the impression that this miserable growth, if it takes place at all, is not due to, but contrary to you and your fuss. It just happens, it exists simply because something else is being mined from the earth somewhere and the exchange is working. It is doubtful that robot kills jobs, but it is certain that you are killing them with your endless reforms, reorganizations and rearrangements of yourself and your own kind within the existing political system, and the real sector of the economy is certainly beyond your competence.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: depressant

"There is a lot of money in the budget, the budget is in surplus, the National Welfare Fund is growing. There are 28 trillion rubles on the deposits of companies, but there is no economic growth."

There is economic growth, but it is not high. And the budget with the fund does not apply to economic growth.

Quote: depressant

The most that you can offer us is economic growth of a maximum of 1,7% per year, and this despite the fact that the United States grows by 3-4% annually, China - by 6-7%.

Of course - for now. 2014 certainly influenced. No one imposed sanctions on the PRC and the United States. That's only in the 00s could offer 10% growth. And you do not forget the difference in population.

[depressant]

Seryozha, I didn’t say about 28 trillion, Siluanov said that. It is he who correlates them with the possibility of economic growth, not me. And I can only ask questions. If with such a supply of money Siluanov allows serious economic growth, so where is he serious? What is stopping you?

[Sergey1987]

Quote: depressant

And I can only ask questions. If with such a supply of money Siluanov allows serious economic growth, so where is he serious? What is stopping you?

Lyudmila will not have serious economic growth in a day, and even in a year. Today there will be no 2% GDP growth, and 10% tomorrow, as in the mid-00s, even if oil prices jump to 150 dollars. By the way, where did you read or watch Siluanov’s interview where does he say that thanks to the budget and the fund we will have great economic growth? In most European countries, there is a surplus budget and economic growth. Growth is already going on and will become more, the more investments there will be, both internal and external. Measurement of economic growth is carried out by calculating the GDP growth rate of the countries of the world for the production of GDP (at the market value of all final goods and services produced domestically for a certain period of time, taking into account inflation). The more we consume, the more we will produce. The better our products are, the more we will trade them.
Due to this, there will be growth.

[Constructor68]

Svarog, your like-minded people are not socialists / communists, but those who are in the rain, Novaya Gazeta and others like them. Such a liberoid public. It really hurts like carbon copy

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Svarog

So it’s not a matter of robots, but of the government .. everything goes to the point that work will be harder and harder, and if you don’t take measures, it will either revolt with the revolution or simply all die out quietly, officials and robots will remain ..

I look at you in any article and on any topic for the ears of the government attract. How does the government relate to the introduction of robots and automation of processes in production?

[Mainbeam]

It is outrageous that the results of a very controversial study are presented as if everything predicted will happen literally overnight

This will practically happen. As far as the previous generation was not able to use computers, so it lags behind in gadgets. And the pace is only growing. It was about 10 years with computers. It’s been 2-3 years with cellular computers. Now children 5-6 years old use gadgets more quickly than 25-30 year olds.

At the Izhevsk car plant, 7 people were laid off 8-6.000 years ago (the numbers are not accurate, the memory is not eternal). And where did they go? Taxi drivers and builders. Is it easy for an adult to adapt? How many leaders of the older generation have adapted to the capitalism of "perestroika"?

[img]https://i.mycdn.me/i?r=AzEPZsRbOZEKgBhR0XGMT1RkAJBWJ8ZEUJptXJmpmVi26KaKTM5SRkZCeTgDn6uOyic[/img]

So, I think, everything will happen overnight. Why? Yes, because they don’t talk about it. The Germans began to drag production from China, transferring plants to robotization. This is already a few years. And when did you find out about this trend?

[Svarog]

Quote: MainBeam

The Germans began to drag production from China, transferring plants to robotics. This is already a few years. And when did you find out about this trend?

We have nothing to drag from China, we will buy robots in China or in Europe, we need robots for oil ..

[Mainbeam]

It just seems.

I remember how dumplings began to be made NOT by hand. Isn't that robot?
Or the packaging of bulk products with automatic machines in the early 2000s

People are crowded out not only from highly skilled production.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: MainBeam

It just seems.

The whole nature of mankind is based on the idea of ​​facilitating labor and cheapening production. Stick digger - hoe - spade - excavator.

[nikvic46]

Alexander: It’s not always that people are fired due to the fact that production has become more intelligent. There are many reasons.

[depressant]

I listened to the lecture from beginning to end, tired. The mad scientist is charming. Thanks, MainBeam.
I already knew a lot, however - somehow separately, and connected together greatly impressed. I believe that the population in our country will be divided. Some will agree to be completely controlled "" (term) on imputed income, others will want to remain human. But refuseniks will have to live where they cannot be reached.
You will have to listen to the lecture again and take notes. In general, a bad future awaits us. But, I think, not as soon as Kurzweil predicts.

[faterdom]

By the way, this is curious: all our economists can be replaced by one artificial brain, and he will not steal, make biased conclusions and statements, buy expensive cars and yachts, and, most importantly, he will adhere to the assigned strategies and goals, and not change them five times on the day. And this is the path to prosperity in the economy.
And he does not need the reporting of all the accounting departments and branches of the State Bank there, he will know about all transactions instantly. The allocation of funds to combat fire or flood will occur in 0,0001 ms, and not in 14 months, as it is now.
Equipped with the instruction “don't raise the retirement age - until I’m an artificial brain” he will not change his mind in 12 years.
And Siluanova can be retired as soon as he reaches 65 years old. And before that - just dismiss by OSHM, let him as a "pre-retirement look for a job."

[sergo1914]

About the robot cleaner. Maybe he scare. Our rabbit from the filler sprinkles a parapet around the perimeter of the cage and tries to pretend to be a rag. The robot buzzes, waves its side brush terribly and tries to get into the cage. In general, it shows aggression.
PS xiaomi roborock s50

[Mordvin 3]

Quote: sergo1914

The robot buzzes, waves its side brush terribly and tries to get into the cage.

As it was with one, she turned on the entot vacuum cleaner, so the cat huddled behind the sofa, they barely pulled it out of there.

[Operator]

In the conditions of our country, robots are, first of all, "killers" of Central Asian guest workers, and only then of low-skilled workers with Russian passports.

In the future, due to the reorientation of the education and retraining system, it is possible to send a part of the released people to quasi-creative professions - designers, stylists, as well as to the public service system, etc. But highly qualified scientists, engineers, programmers, doctors, teachers, economists, lawyers, financiers, managers, military, security officials, as well as musicians, artists, etc. (whose work cannot be robotized by definition) according to its IP level, it can become no more than 10% of the population of any country.

And this distribution does not depend on the total population and weakly depends on the IP level of parents in connection with the probabilistic nature of the transmission of intellectual abilities by inheritance.

What to do with the remaining 90% is a big question (for example, to specialize them in the production of surrogate children and at the same time make them ardent consumers of everything and everything - consumer goods, pop music, fashion gadgets, social networks, etc.)

[Cat man null]

Quote: Operator

... according to its IP level, it can become no more ... ... weakly dependent on the IP level of the parents ...

Maybe IQ?

[Operator]

Sorry, professional deformation is, of course, IQ.

[Mainbeam]

This will not work.
And it's stupid to fight progress.

The topic is interesting, but the article is about nothing.
Superficial. Primitive.

[Svarog]

Quote: MainBeam

This will not work.
And it's stupid to fight progress.

That's right, but progress needs to be used for the benefit of people, not a handful of individuals .. The only question is. Imagine a company with 1000 employees and 800 of them decided to replace them with robots. The owner of the enterprise is the winner, and 800 employees are looking for work that does not exist. And why is such progress? Like it or not, but progress only with a socially oriented state is possible and from there it would really benefit.

[Mainbeam]

Quote: Svarog

with socially oriented

I agree. But this is too idealistic.

As far as I know, even at the modern level of production, it is possible to provide ALL people on Earth with all the necessary (housing, water, food, gadgets ...) in Africa, in India ... This does not happen. Believe that someone will try for me? No one will be.

Take for example health. This is business, not help. Rockefellers are not sitting on oil, but on pharmaceuticals. At the same time, they plan and in a long-playing mode manipulate social processes in such a way as to transfer medicine purely to chemistry.

So will someone be kind enough to provide paradise on earth?

[Mcar]

Quote: Svarog

Business owner wins

If the "owner" in the sense of a) a capitalist and b) robotization is universal, then he is not a winner, but a loser.

The humor is that surplus value, in other words profit / unpaid labor / gain from the robot, is not taken. It’s possible from a person, but from a robot?

[Galleon]

Children with education will find work: now they repair gadgets, then they begin to repair robots. The niche of work is not very capacious, but it is always interesting to repair complex equipment.
WO witnesses will not let me lie that often my remarks are filled with social skepticism, but for some reason this topic turns me on to some bright future. Imagine: taxis are robots. They behave appropriately on the road, don’t climb onto the sidelines, like the current ones, they don’t break about money or where to carry it - all according to the price list. Imagine robots officials. No special skills are needed: only databases, laws, registries in memory and on the side of the printer. Or even without a printer - put his social card, and the certificate / permission / certificate is already on it. Unprecedented labor productivity! Entire buildings and neighborhoods in cities are being freed. You do not need personal cars and increased pensions (with all the Rosgvardiyskim boots on the tailbone - and on the flight). Only the Government - and somewhere down there the remains of the people, by barrels of burning garbage. Who works 4 days, who two (for the top damn it - they pump pumps, the pipes buzz). Only robot repairmen and robots themselves work. And without any pensions. Straight Isaac Asimov and Ray Bradbury.

[Gardamir]

Imagine robots officials. No special skills are needed: only databases, laws, registries in memory and on the side of the printer. Or even without a printer - put his social card, and the certificate / permission / certificate is already on it.

[Rec]

Quote: Galleon

Only robot repairmen and robots themselves work.

And at one fine moment the repairer comes up with a thought: "Let me fix the program to this robot taxi driver so that he can take me faster". And away we go.

[kuznec]

I do not see the logical ending of the robot. At the beginning of the process, everything is clear - one bourgeois replaced 80 ％ workers with robots, then another ... They are satisfied, save on salaries. And then? When do most of the bourgeoisie get hooked? Where and to whom will they sell cars or pans if people are without work and, accordingly, without money?
And the pictures from Soviet science fiction come to my mind, where robots work hard, and a person is engaged in self-development and creative work. And I suspect that in a purely technological / economic aspect, mass robotization without changing the social paradigm, or, if you want, the socio-economic formation, is impossible.

[region58]

Quote: kuznec

mass robotization without changing the social paradigm, or, if you want, the socio-economic formation is impossible.

I support. Technical progress is much faster than changing human thinking. If we assume that the replacement of people by robots will occur now, then few will be engaged in self-development and creative work. I suspect that most will stupidly drink beer and beat each other's faces. Unfortunately...
PS If a little aside - thoughts come, that maybe the Soviet Union was ahead of its time ... people were not ready ...

[Galleon]

Quote: Operator

Robots in our country are primarily "killers" of Central Asian migrant workers

The robot - the killer of migrant workers - it's cool !!

[Alex66]

Least of all I am afraid of robots, a man who is much more dangerous is a capitalist who, out of greed only, that I will not eat something to eat, will not allow people to live and work normally. They and macaroni enough for what they pay. And the problem of excess labor is solved simply by the development of science, a decrease in the retirement age, you just need not to be greedy like our government.

[Galleon]

The article has an incorrect title. If robots come in order to deprive people of work, they do not bring gifts. They take away work - the source of existence, and for many they tear the strings from which the rope of the meaning of life is woven. For life without work does not have fullness, and God commanded to work. Based on this, the title of the article is like a sheep skin on a wolf. On the iron wolf.
For some reason, I remember Ned Ludd associates.

[Ros 56]

I remember from school how in Luddites they broke looms in England so as not to be left without a piece of bread. Now, of course, not the Middle Ages, they will come up with something socially, but no one knows how it really will be.

[Van 16]

To be honest - while it's fantastic. What are 10-12 years old? No, of course, somewhere there will be robots, but just somewhere. At the bulk of enterprises, the main fleet of machine tools is 20,30 years old or more, updating is extremely slow, they are simply being repaired, and the maximum is modernization. So, while the robot itself has a very vague term.

[boni592807]

Van 16 September 17, 2019 16:42 p.m. NEW.
To be honest - while it's fantastic. What are 10-12 years? ... So, while the robot itself has a very vague term.

Colleague, in the "difficult" Soviet years, 1978, worked at the head plant of the military-industrial complex of the Moscow region. in the exhibition center of the plant
About the machines in the workshops - it was the same thing, but there was an accelerated filling of CNC machines (areas for gaining experience), they worked at the plant's CC, thought and talked about the ACS at the plant. With the creation of its own ACS in each workshop, which was tied up and constantly exchanging information with Central ACS plant. Everything is based on its hardware, software and cooperation of social countries (EU machines). And robotics was not something transcendental, like Jules Verne's "Nautilus" in those days in France and the WORLD. If there was a problem, it was that the United States had dual-use products available to consumers, everything is closed here. Therefore, the United States benefited from this, much was (became) cheaper.
About the cactastrophic absence from the USA ?! Answer YOURSELF, as in THIS case, our "Buran" flew on autopilot, and the United States flew to the last on "Shuttle" with manual control. Not bad Lagged behind, really WHO ?!
The most important question, but what BECAUSE.
In the USSR and the CMEA countries, they planned to reduce the working day, making it possible in the future to put on the development of the intellectual, cultural, physical potential of the citizens of the USSR. Because it is the most important resource of any state. "Cadres are everything!"
Why, the United States began by any means to "pull" technologies, specialists, projects from the USSR and the CMEA countries, gradually tearing apart the CMEA and the USSR. And also Japan did not hesitate to study the journal "Science and Life", "Technology of Youth", etc.
For the USSR, these journals were a "rupar" to share scientific perspectives, to offer smart ideas and rationalizations. Many tried to think, dream and develop their own interesting. "People to see and show themselves", it was COOL, its own developed and assembled machine, any technique. I invented the main one myself, took what I have and made a CANDY with new properties, convenient and practical! Each house had its own craftsmen, this was the norm for the majority.
R.S. The current idea of ​​robotics, this is really a fantasy of the WEST (Bradbury).
How do Nosov's books "Dunno from the Flower City" differ from "Dunno on the Moon". Reading in this sequence, what a PERSPECTION ?!
Somehow, it was.

[Van 16]

I absolutely agree with you. That is how it was. In numbers, I could be wrong, for a long time it was, but about the same enterprise, 87, for the year put into operation more than 100 new CNC and OC machines. But now it’s not there, the same enterprise, I simply don’t own all the numbers, but here’s one workshop - over the past 10 years, one machine was launched. One! For ten years! The rest, the very ones, 30 ++ are simply patched. All this is sad.

[Amateur]

If a robot capable of becoming a public figure were created, he would be the best of them. Following the Laws of Robotics, he could not do harm to people, he would be a stranger to tyranny, bribery, stupidity and prejudice. And having served for some time, he would have resigned, although he is immortal, because it would be unthinkable for him to upset people by letting them know that they are controlled by a robot. ...
And the great Beyrle was just a robot?
“Oh, we'll never know.” I think yes. But when he decided to die, he ordered his body to be destroyed, so now it is impossible to prove anything. And then - what's the difference?
“Well, you know ...”
“You also share prejudice against robots.” But in vain. He was a very good president ...

A. Azimov. "I am robot"

[Engineer]

In principle, IT robotics will still lead to increased unemployment. Already now many banking posts are under threat. I personally heard from one deputy edirast: we do not do automation in Moscow because of the threat of increasing unemployment. It was said not on the sidelines, but in front of a wide audience.
In general, I read good material on this topic back in the 2000s. Industrial automation replaces five people with three higher qualifications (engineers, adjusters, programmers, testers). In this case, the replaced five fall down in the social aspect. And three people who replace them increase their social status, but not as much as they could because their work often does not require constant participation and can be done on a part-time basis or under a fixed-term contract. Now there is a wave of IT robots, but I think that the trends are similar.
It is IT robotization that will determine the trends in this area. IT not only plays an integrating role in automation processes, but also produces a product that often does not require hardware and replaces people, for example, a bot-seller of banking services. All these robotic manipulators and warehouse robots - loaders are secondary. And that is why our further lag is predetermined, primarily due to the lag in the field of AI, and the lag in the field of investments (first of all, private ones, for a number of reasons they are much more effective)
As for the hopes for our young talents in the field of robotics, they do not seem entirely justified to me. Firstly, the achievements of our young amateurs are exaggerated, and secondly, the profession of an "iron" engineer (not a programmer and not an oilman) is now relatively unpromising in Russia for a long time.

[Karabas]

I personally heard from one deputy edirast: we do not do automation in Moscow because of the threat of increasing unemployment.

Even as they do. It is important to clarify how. In Europe (why it’s there, then I’ll tell you) IT is quickly organized. In this sharaga, the newly-born European punks (and now not the punks, but the board of directors) are gathering in the crowds from the street their undeveloped people (not even of the junior level, but often even those who have no sideways). Naturally, they cannot build any automation, and therefore, in order not to lose their bread place (and salaries are not very bad there, even for Europe) they place orders on freelance sites for a penny (because they give a lot from their salaries n the toad smothers), to which only Indians or students agree, who write the code (as they know how). Naturally, after the deployment of the project, a lot of problems arise, up to complete inoperability, it doesn’t matter! This is even good! Here we are already in place quickly organized the same sharaga to correct errors and shortcomings.
Oh yes, now why in Europe and not in Nigeria for example. The fact is that in Europe, solid banks and a wonderful laundry for laundering gray incomes have been organized for many years. Netherlands for example. After the laundry of Belgium and the Netherlands, it is almost impossible to attract udirasta for theft of budget funds.

[depressant]

Karabas, that's right, I heard about this.

[nikvic46]

If a robot works on the street, then it must be created with a correction for our climate. We do not take into account the temperature regime. After all, some equipment will not work until you create favorable conditions for it. All this noise is like a kind of "guillotine" that will cut the acts the former state-va. And what to cut when they are no longer there. And all with a serious look of experts say "This is the law !!!".

[Gardamir]

Firstly about migrant workers. About five years ago, in our yard, every house had a Tajik (a profession such as working as a Tajik). But time goes on and many do not notice that there are fewer janitors in the yards, now there is one janitor for three houses, officials are cutting money in their pocket. And people from the south go to work as doctors, to the police, to the tax, to officials. Go through the cabinets, Hambartsumyan, Mammadov, Mirzaev.
Now, with regard to professions, I came across a most curious article about the professions of the future, an online therapist, a city farmer, a weather management engineer, a designer of cyberorganisms, a builder of underwater cities, a developer of medical robots, and a creator of digital doubles. And I haven’t written it all yet.

[bober1982]

Comparison of Hawking with our scientists is inappropriate, this all black holes in the universe were looking for and rallying against the military (any), which he was afraid of robots, he himself looked like them.

[Rust]

Quote: faterdom

By the way, this is curious: all our economists can be replaced by one artificial brain, and he will not steal, make biased conclusions and statements, buy expensive cars and yachts, and, most importantly, he will adhere to the assigned strategies and goals, and not change them five times on the day. And this is the path to prosperity in the economy.
And he does not need the reporting of all the accounting departments and branches of the State Bank there, he will know about all transactions instantly. The allocation of funds to combat fire or flood will occur in 0,0001 ms, and not in 14 months, as it is now.
Equipped with the instruction “don't raise the retirement age - until I’m an artificial brain” he will not change his mind in 12 years.
And Siluanova can be retired as soon as he reaches 65 years old. And before that - just dismiss by OSHM, let him as a "pre-retirement look for a job."

Very nice comment on the article. 24 plus would put.

[parusnik]

Robotization is good, but not with a capitalist social formation, production robots are a private means of production, not a public one .. The owner of the means of production will receive superprofits, but he will share this superprofit with this ..

[Kontrik]

Well, Russians have their own specifics in robotics .. We ALWAYS put Russian soul into them!

Normal robot, it’s so hard to deal with him hehe
Well, Fedya is his own on the board .. He can protect his constructor if that .. hehe from screaming that everything is lost and Russia is a wild country etc.

[Karabas]

Everything that would be done by man was made out of a desire to make life easier.

Here it is worth clarifying what kind of person. Scientists and engineers. Why do they need it? To make life easier? Well, you could say that, if you do not die of hunger is considered a relief. Whose benefit then? It turns out those who initially had money. Then why do they sound the alarm? Finally, their dream will come true to get rid of the hated electorate who is always always dissatisfied. There will be robots that will serve them and a handful of them, with pools of coke and a bunch of nipples for chocolate life (or vice versa, they don’t have a lot of options for luxurious life from century to century).

[depressant]

The topic does not leave me. She is scary.
Colleagues remember Isaac Asimov and Ray Bradbury. Both are some of my favorite writers. Disassembled into pieces because of the cheapness of the publication and carefully packed for this reason in a plastic bag, the book "I am a robot" is in front of me on the shelf. Immediately - Azimov's book "At the beginning" of the 90th year of publication. In it, the writer examines the Bible - in vain? And here, on the shelf, is the most beloved one - "Waves Extinguish the Wind" by the Strugatskys. So, in it the Strugatskys mention two technological counter-revolutions, and the heroes of the work behave as if no chips were inserted into their brains, they are people! But the social system is not like the capitalism of the current bottling.
And I'm wondering if the ruling elite will become a slave to the "cloud" for the sake of immortality. Who will be whose slave? Programmers are slaves to the government, or vice versa. In Hollywood, the topic has been researched for a long time, new ideas are being picked up there. The other day I saw a wonderful film "Alita" (not a TV series). The main question is how to remain human, even if you are a robot. The professor from the video he watched, who is accustomed to speaking not so much in his native language as in English, calls the bulk of humanity the way it should become in the future, in a word used by liberals in relation to us, calmly using it already as a working term ...
And my colleagues here admire. Like, we will replace the government with artificial intelligence, and we will be happy. Will be. Because it’s not the government that will be replaced, but the brains that will set us up with chips, so much so that we will always be happy. And we will agree. Because without a chip in the head you can’t buy food. We can’t get to the subway platform without a ticket.

[faterdom]

Quote: depressant

Because it’s not the government that will be replaced, but the brains that will set us up with chips, so much so that we will always be happy. And we will agree.

Well, yes, that's the trick. The question is who will control whom: are we robots or are they meaningless. Due to the fact that we ourselves, using both biotechnology and IT, will be both at the same time.
As happens now with computers and smartphones - look around! Can you confidently say who controls whom? Especially if you have to drive in a big city, then in relation to many pedestrians, and drivers too, not everything is so simple (as one "officer's daughter" used to say).

[depressant]

It was not possible to learn how to drive a car)) But it once came off in computer races, preferring an inert heavy Ford to versatile, almost inertia-free Japanese cars ...
But how right you are!
Now, I’m watching: a young mother is walking, and a three-year-old baby is hobbling behind, at a distance of four meters — the mother forgot about him! Because she buried herself in a smartphone and, in a state of complete loss from reality, crosses the road. I take the baby by the handle, translate after her. In response to the remark - a misunderstood look. And this is all the time. And here is the video: the baby still does not know how to speak, but with might and main presses the buttons of the smartphone. And then parents - both in smartphones. The company at the table - everything in smartphones!
Yes, the new features are attractive. But a person remains a person if he works with his hands - fine motor skills, different from typing a text. If he studies, thinks, has the skills and ability to make simple things, if he is concerned and responsible. If you overcome the danger.
What will a person turn into if worries and anxieties disappear?
But so many want it.

[faterdom]

Here you have the ready IT zombies. Which is grown for the second generation. This is now still contact with a smartphone requires at least minimal, but effort - to move a finger, to drive with one’s eyes. But these shortcomings will be eliminated soon.

[nikvic46]

Yes. The picture is gloomy. This is not the first time I have heard "The new state owes nothing to the citizen."
And it is not the liberals who say this, but the honorary members of our society. Does it mean that the state is giving up these powers, but the duties remain to the citizen? This is strange to hear. The mentality of the people is partially eroded. Shamanism, witchcraft and all sorts of nonsense have become annoying subjects of discussion at different levels. If this continues, then most of our society will be left behind. Regardless of whether science develops or not.

[Basarev]

So that's great. It will just be possible to stop letting in migrants, and the existing nerus will be expelled from the country all and all and replaced with robots. And for Russians, the best jobs are at the top of the pyramid of surplus value.

[Lighten]

Affort fails. The topic needs to be studied more deeply. Googled "collaborative robots" the same robot but which does not need to be programmed. For example, a robot welder - showed point A to point B and he himself will make a seam that will pass through and X-ray. Movers are laying napalas and a lot of work operations. We have it slowed down due to the fall of the RFP. But after the arrival of robots for 500. Tysh r. It's already cheaper to take a robot than a human.

[bird]

it looks like a discussion in England in the 19th century that when traveling on a steam locomotive, people will break their necks as they have to actively twist their heads)) But seriously, for example, we almost did not notice that the staff of accountants in companies dropped to almost 1 person, in just 10-15 years old. there is no cry from the army of unemployed specialists. This is a positive point. But the negative - "all the rough work will be done by robots" SHISH! people are doing the rough work now. carry away, repair, "wipe", lubricate. and there is no progress. As you know, it was a milkmaid who became an automatic milking operator. there was a cleaner became - the operator of the cleaning complex.