Military Review

Two probable scenarios for the start of a nuclear war are called in Russia

149
The military confrontation between Russia and the United States may end in a nuclear conflict even if the parties do not want to use it. There are two more likely scenarios for starting a nuclear war. This was told by the head of the Center for International Security IMEMO RAS, Academician Alexei Arbatov, according to RIA News".


Two probable scenarios for the start of a nuclear war are called in Russia


According to the academician, neither Russia nor the United States will go for the deliberate use of nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict, as they understand the consequences of its use and that there will be no winners in such a war. However, there are two more likely scenarios for starting a nuclear apocalypse. According to Arbatov, one cannot disregard the usual technical failure, as a result of which missile attack warning systems will work. If one of the parties responds to a false alarm with a real blow, this may lead to the start of a full-scale nuclear war. Also, this may not be a technical failure, but a provocation organized by terrorists.

The second scenario of the outbreak of a nuclear war involves the escalation of a local military conflict into a global one, when one side, anticipating its loss, uses tactical nuclear weapons to de-escalate, but this does not stop the second side, which also uses nuclear weapons.

The side that will start to lose may decide to use nuclear weapons to a limited extent to stop the conflict and carry out the so-called de-escalation. But in response to this use, the other side will also use nuclear weapons, and so the exchange of attacks will increase along the stairs of escalation: first from the tactical level, then from medium range, and then strategic

- explained Arbatov, adding that the termination of the INF Treaty only "exacerbates the situation."


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  1. prior
    prior 15 September 2019 07: 36
    +7
    "According to Arbatov, one cannot discount the usual technical failure."

    Well, if no one wants to negotiate - you give a technical glitch!
    There is no doubt even who is the first to use tactical nuclear weapons in the event of a local nuclear conflict.
    Of course, Russia, really gentlemen Americans ?!
    1. Leeds
      Leeds 15 September 2019 08: 52
      +2
      The main message: if a friendly gang starts to squeeze somewhere, and they all already have a lot of disgusting F-35, useless Javelins and other tin, then they will see a nuclear mushroom.

      3-th option: reaching the level in missile defense technologies when a retaliatory strike is impossible or practically impossible.
      1. My doctor
        My doctor 15 September 2019 10: 26
        +9
        Quote: Leeds
        3-th option: reaching the level in missile defense technologies when a retaliatory strike is impossible or practically impossible.

        3rd option: reaching a level in missile defense technologies. when it will seem that, retaliation impossible or virtually impossible
      2. Olgovich
        Olgovich 15 September 2019 10: 27
        +2
        Quote: Leeds
        3-th option: reaching the level in missile defense technologies when a retaliatory strike is impossible or practically impossible.

        what a big difference for the earth is that 1,5 thousand (or 3 thousand in the case on both sides) of nuclear charges will explode not over the United States, but over the Pacific Ocean? recourse
        1. maxim947
          maxim947 15 September 2019 10: 30
          +5
          There are two scenarios for the war, but the result is still the same.
          1. Boa kaa
            Boa kaa 15 September 2019 10: 57
            +4
            Quote: maxim947
            There are two scenarios for war

            Mr. Arbatov, apparently, considered the possibility of starting a DB with the use of nuclear weapons only at the Central Election War. But there are other bottlenecks that can act as a fuse for TMV! For example, there are at least 2 "sweet couples": India-Pakistan and Israel-Iran ... Behind each of them is a "sponsor" from the great powers, and none of them will allow infringement of their interests. Therefore, if a vigorous land mine hits, it will be too late to "drink Borjomi": It is easy to release a nuclear genie from storage, but it will be difficult to drive it back there ...
            There is a hotline between the Kremlin and the White House with a red telephone ... Maybe it’s better to call than to sit in an underground shelter for a century?
        2. Vadim237
          Vadim237 15 September 2019 12: 21
          -5
          The infrastructure will survive, and if it survives, then everything else will live and it will be easier to deal with the consequences.
          1. Olgovich
            Olgovich 15 September 2019 12: 41
            +1
            Quote: Vadim237
            The infrastructure will survive, and if it survives, then everything else will be live

            if there is nobody to live, then there is nothing to live
          2. NordUral
            NordUral 15 September 2019 20: 37
            +1
            You are a joker, Vadim.
        3. Beringovsky
          Beringovsky 15 September 2019 14: 29
          -4
          So already soldier
          More than two thousand nuclear tests were carried out, including on land and at sea.
          And nothing, we live.
          1. NordUral
            NordUral 15 September 2019 20: 39
            0
            They are separated in time by decades.
          2. Olgovich
            Olgovich 16 September 2019 08: 53
            0
            Quote: Beringovsky
            So already soldier
            More than two thousand nuclear tests were carried out, including on land and at sea.
            And nothing, we live.

            The same power ?! On a surface? belay
            Do not talk nonsense.
        4. Doliva63
          Doliva63 15 September 2019 16: 34
          0
          Quote: Olgovich
          Quote: Leeds
          3-th option: reaching the level in missile defense technologies when a retaliatory strike is impossible or practically impossible.

          what a big difference for the earth is that 1,5 thousand (or 3 thousand in the case on both sides) of nuclear charges will explode not over the United States, but over the Pacific Ocean? recourse

          Well, the Earth will survive. And even Sapiens as a species does not die out.
          1. Olgovich
            Olgovich 16 September 2019 08: 59
            0
            Quote: Doliva63
            Well, the Earth will survive. And even Sapiens as a species does not die out.

            So I also write: "What's the difference for the Earth?" yes
            There are many versions with the Sapiens, but it is true that the Stone Age is the best perspective.
            Or Homo insipiens
            1. Doliva63
              Doliva63 16 September 2019 19: 16
              0
              Quote: Olgovich
              Quote: Doliva63
              Well, the Earth will survive. And even Sapiens as a species does not die out.

              So I also write: "What's the difference for the Earth?" yes
              There are many versions with the Sapiens, but it is true that the Stone Age is the best perspective.
              Or Homo insipiens

              No, that is not true. Modern civilization, although considerably reduced, will not go anywhere.
              1. Olgovich
                Olgovich 17 September 2019 10: 17
                0
                Quote: Doliva63
                No, that is not true. Modern civilization, although considerably reduced, will not go anywhere.

                Life will show! hi
                1. Doliva63
                  Doliva63 17 September 2019 18: 50
                  0
                  Quote: Olgovich
                  Quote: Doliva63
                  No, that is not true. Modern civilization, although considerably reduced, will not go anywhere.

                  Life will show! hi

                  But I hope not to live up to this. laughing
                  Without me, please).
                  1. Olgovich
                    Olgovich 18 September 2019 09: 20
                    0
                    Quote: Doliva63
                    But I hope not to live up to this.
                    Without me, please).

                    let's live to our natural years and WITHOUT cataclysms. hi
        5. DDT
          DDT 16 September 2019 14: 57
          0
          Great one! Better let it be over America. Then at least the Ocean will suffer less as an ecosystem and life will probably recover faster. stop
        6. 3danimal
          3danimal 16 September 2019 20: 54
          0
          Awesome. No one will notice. Another hurricane.
      3. Vadmir
        Vadmir 15 September 2019 15: 23
        +2
        3-th option: reaching the level in missile defense technologies when a retaliatory strike is impossible or practically impossible.
        The whole history of armaments says that in the competition shell-armor (sword-armor), the shell always wins, although there were short-term exceptions, but in the end the shell still gets its way.
      4. DDT
        DDT 16 September 2019 14: 55
        0
        Well, then Vanguard and Poseidon will go into battle. The last argument of the kings so to speak. wink
        1. 3danimal
          3danimal 16 September 2019 20: 59
          0
          But the usual ballistic missiles, with a flight time of 30 minutes, do not suit you?
          "Poseidon", even when put into service, will reach the other side in a few days. When in the country that sent him, and on the coast, the goal will be bright from nuclear conflagrations.
          Sudden application? The answer will be the same ballistic and aviation, even before arrival.
    2. Nychego
      Nychego 15 September 2019 10: 04
      +1
      Quote: prior
      There is no doubt even who is the first to use tactical nuclear weapons in the event of a local nuclear conflict.
      Of course, Russia, really gentlemen Americans ?!

      Both sides can. It depends exactly on the course of hostilities in the theater of operations.

      True, I think the beginning of the slaughter of nuclear nucleons by Russia is less likely - among the Amers, neither children nor capital are held hostage, unlike the Roselites.
    3. 3danimal
      3danimal 16 September 2019 20: 53
      0
      The first to apply is the weaker and more defeated side.
  2. Graz
    Graz 15 September 2019 07: 37
    +16
    Also, this may not be a technical failure, but a provocation organized by terrorists.
    _____________________________
    far-fetched, most likely the system has been duplicated many times and there are several independent sources of warning of a missile attack
    the main thing is not to oversleep as June 22, it’s better for me to deliver a preemptive strike first
    1. Olgovich
      Olgovich 15 September 2019 10: 32
      +2
      Quote: Graz
      the main thing is not to oversleep as June 22, it’s better for me to deliver a preemptive strike first

      I agree. And that’s exactly what we are called for. and June 22 and August 1: they NEVER should happen again. Enough!
  3. aszzz888
    aszzz888 15 September 2019 07: 37
    +6
    In any case, it is necessary to negotiate, not to fight. Any nuclear strikes will lead to irreversible consequences on the planets Earth. FOR ALL.
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 10: 11
      -8
      Quote: aszzz888
      FOR ALL.

      More capsa, because you are the only one so smart here.
    2. Vadmir
      Vadmir 15 September 2019 15: 30
      +2
      In any case, it is necessary to negotiate, not to fight.
      And how can you come to an agreement with someone who understands only submission and dictate as a treaty?
      Any nuclear strikes will lead to irreversible consequences on the planets Earth. FOR ALL.
      That's just what allows countries to live their own way, not obeying the world gendarme.
    3. Doliva63
      Doliva63 15 September 2019 18: 42
      0
      Quote: aszzz888
      In any case, it is necessary to negotiate, not to fight. Any nuclear strikes will lead to irreversible consequences on the planets Earth. FOR ALL.

      The capitalists have one contract - "the law of the jungle", the rest is empty lyrics. So there is only one scenario - whoever finds a reason to press the button first is right, because, as you know, the winners write history.
  4. Hagalaz
    Hagalaz 15 September 2019 07: 40
    +5
    Well, the divisional political instructor was telling us these scenarios as far back as in politicformation. So it’s not new.
  5. Van 16
    Van 16 15 September 2019 07: 42
    +3
    I would really like, of course, that would do without this, without these last scenarios.
    1. Destiny
      Destiny 15 September 2019 07: 48
      +8
      It will not cost .. Always the side that will be faced with the edge of its defeat in the war will apply the entire arsenal of available weapons, including nuclear weapons.
      1. Olgovich
        Olgovich 15 September 2019 10: 34
        -1
        Quote: Destiny
        .Always the side that will be faced with the edge of its defeat in the war will use the entire arsenal of available weapons, including nuclear weapons.

        as if yes, but chem. weapons in WWII was practically not used, even by Germany, its legislator ....
        1. max702
          max702 15 September 2019 12: 19
          +3
          Quote: Olgovich
          as if yes, but chem. weapons in WWII was practically not used, even by Germany, its legislator ....

          There was no point; unlike nuclear weapons, chemistry would not have changed anything! unless it would aggravate the fate of Germany .. But nuclear weapons are another matter when there is an understanding that everything and everything will be destroyed, there’s nothing to lose and fear, you’ll die anyway and you’ll drag the enemy behind yourself .. Chemistry is incapable of this ..
          1. Olgovich
            Olgovich 15 September 2019 12: 37
            -5
            Quote: max702
            unlike nuclear weapons, chemistry would not change anything!

            OM blow to cities - how is it very different from nuclear weapons?
            1. max702
              max702 15 September 2019 12: 44
              +1
              Quote: Olgovich
              OM blow to cities - how is it very different from nuclear weapons?

              Are you kidding me? belay
              1. Olgovich
                Olgovich 15 September 2019 12: 56
                -2
                Quote: max702
                Quote: Olgovich
                OM blow to cities - how is it very different from nuclear weapons?

                Are you kidding me? belay

                what's the joke? belay
                1. max702
                  max702 15 September 2019 13: 04
                  +3
                  Quote: Olgovich
                  Quote: max702
                  Quote: Olgovich
                  OM blow to cities - how is it very different from nuclear weapons?

                  Are you kidding me? belay

                  what's the joke? belay

                  How would you familiarize yourself with the damaging factors of nuclear weapons and chemical weapons .. You compare the incomparable ..
      2. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 15 September 2019 11: 10
        +4
        Quote: Destiny
        .Always the side that will be faced with the edge of its defeat in the war will use the entire arsenal of available weapons, including nuclear weapons.

        If the "side" is sure of a non-response, it will apply, but if there is a threat to get a splash back, it will seriously think ... yes
        Remember the history of WWII - even such a villain as Adik did not dare to use XO, although the Germans had plenty of it. Because he knew - after that, the Allies would flood chemistry with the very eyeballs!
        But the "crap" did not hesitate to throw the Kid and the Fat Man on the Japs, because they knew for sure: there would be no response! And they behaved in a completely different way with the DPRK, when Kim said that the response would come without fail and repeatedly! And immediately Donya was blown away and said that Kim is "a great guy".
        Hence the conclusion: you need to have "weighty arguments" in a dispute with a bandit, and not good peaceful intentions.
      3. 3danimal
        3danimal 16 September 2019 21: 07
        +1
        Imagine that nuclear weapons appeared in Nazi Germany before the defeat. But its use would “untie” the hands of the allies (also owning it). To what extent would the use of nuclear weapons be in the interests of ordinary Germans (a non-insane dictator)? There are adequate parties to which we can capitulate (allies), but there are none (Reich, Japan of those years).
        Chemistry was not used, because it (in that form) was ineffective.
    2. Graz
      Graz 15 September 2019 07: 48
      +7
      without delimiting spheres of influence. nuclear war has a very high percentage of probability
      1. Van 16
        Van 16 15 September 2019 07: 50
        +2
        Yes, it’s all clear, but I would like to hi
      2. Dude
        Dude 15 September 2019 08: 42
        +2
        Quote: Graz
        without delimiting spheres of influence. nuclear war has a very high percentage of probability

        And the leaders of the past understood this, both on our part and on their part. Not everyone, of course, but understood.
  6. 1536
    1536 15 September 2019 08: 03
    -1
    With the scripts clear. They were written at the RAS back in the 1980 years. In the troops, even KShU (command post exercises) carried out how the conflict between NATO and the SVD (Warsaw Pact countries) develops into a nuclear war. And what conclusions should be made? The same as the dads of today's academicians did at the end of the 1980?
    1. Dude
      Dude 15 September 2019 08: 43
      +5
      And what conclusions should be made? The same as the dads of today's academicians did in the late 1980s?
      God forbid! belay
    2. 3danimal
      3danimal 16 September 2019 21: 10
      0
      Is it possible to learn more?
  7. Amateur
    Amateur 15 September 2019 08: 06
    +7
    USA vs Russia. How two great countries will fight
    Today, 05:00, I. Polonsky

    There are two more possible scenarios for the start of a nuclear war. This was announced by the head of the Center for International Security of the IMEMO RAN, academician Alexei Arbatov, RIA Novosti reports. Today, 07:26, Unsigned.

    1. Aren't there too many "popular" articles in one day?
    2.Academician Alexey Arbatov. The son of GA Arbatov, one of the "gravediggers" of the USSR.
    Ex-chairman of the KGB of the USSR V. A. Kryuchkov:
    G.A. Arbatov worked under various leaders of the country. They were satisfied, respected. But after a series of his speeches, I realized that this is not the person who can benefit our state, which strengthens our relations with America not on an equal footing, as they say, but by surrendering our positions. By the way, he actively opposed our army [21].
  8. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 15 September 2019 08: 06
    +2
    The war - according to the classics - the continuation of the economy by other means. If (when) the dollar starts to fall, the hegemon will apply all methods to keep it afloat. Yes, and now he does not really think about the consequences.
    1. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 15 September 2019 09: 39
      +4
      “Politics is a concentrated expression of the economy.” - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
      "War is the continuation of politics by other means. From the work" On War "(part 1, 1832) by the Prussian military theorist General Karl von Clausewitz (1780-1831). In the original: War is nothing more than the continuation of politics, with the involvement of other means. "http://liva.com.ua/carl-clausewitz.html
    2. 3danimal
      3danimal 16 September 2019 21: 13
      0
      Do not read the "yellow pages": there are no prerequisites for a collapse. Not a single strong player needs this. All this exists only in the inflamed imagination of conspiracy theorists.
  9. midshipman
    midshipman 15 September 2019 08: 21
    +2
    Often had in the early 80s to go to the CP of our Armed Forces. Even then, all the important objects of the United States were under the specific sights of our ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. Do not forget to eat the Yellowstone volcano in the USA. One nuclear bomb in it and the US will be eliminated naturally. So God punished them for their atrocities.
    1. Dude
      Dude 15 September 2019 08: 38
      +4
      Do not forget to eat the Yellowstone volcano in the USA. One nuclear bomb in it and the US will be eliminated naturally
      Not tired of posting this fierce nonsense ?!
      No one, absolutely no one can with due certainty scientific to calculate what it will lead to, and whether, in general, it will lead to any significant result, but every third person considers it his duty to write it ...
      Suggest to bang? (with)
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 15 September 2019 11: 29
        +2
        Quote: Dude
        Not tired of posting this fierce nonsense ?!

        Well, why immediately - "nonsense" !? No.
        There, dear Jew, Yakov Kedmi, in the blue eye of Solovyov, stated in all seriousness that a GRAVITY weapon was created in Russia ... It is a hundred times worse than nuclear weapons and any other WMD! Therefore, it’s impatient — Yellowstone will tremble not childishly at its application and will flood magma with your beloved States from sea to sea (as the Psheks dream) ... laughing
        But to keep the peace - so unparalleled efforts are needed and there is almost no profit from this. Whether it's a race to the death (in terms of weapons!) Here you have super profits and hegemony on a silver platter with stripes. yes
        Somehow, however.
        1. Dude
          Dude 15 September 2019 12: 10
          0
          There, dear Jew, Jacob Kedmi, ..
          Dear Jew Jacob Kedmi, along with competent things, sometimes carries such a blizzard that you already hear tongue yes
          In addition, dear midshipman far from conspiracy theology and science fiction, he offers:

          One nuclear bomb
          , not even shoot the ICBMs, but very old school! good laughing
          1. Boa kaa
            Boa kaa 15 September 2019 18: 02
            -1
            Quote: Dude
            extremely old school!

            Monsieur, though you are a GUY (!) But could not "decipher" in the public, human, WHAT did you want to tell us with this?
            If not difficult - TRANSLATE, plz! bully
            1. Cat man null
              Cat man null 15 September 2019 18: 32
              +2
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              If not difficult - TRANSLATE, plz

              Quote: Dude
              old school

              From old school - old school.

              Used, usually approvingly, to refer to someone or something that is old-fashioned or traditional

              Everything is simple request
              1. Boa kaa
                Boa kaa 15 September 2019 18: 45
                -1
                Quote: Cat Man Null
                From old school - old school.

                Roma, thanks - admonished!
                But the dude wrote the Cyrillic alphabet, not the Latin alphabet ...
                Maybe I understood what ... And I just thought: maybe someone ate a guy? and he suddenly became ill? laughing
                1. Cat man null
                  Cat man null 15 September 2019 18: 58
                  +1
                  Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
                  And just thought: maybe a guy ate someone? and he suddenly became ill?

                  This is not the worst case yet ... but I had to talk about work with the marketer ... pah, marketers belay

                  No, they, of course, are useful guys ... but to listen to them - even with me, who, ahem, have some experience communicating with English speakers, the brain wedged in the first place laughing

                  And they say something basically like Russian, which is characteristic what
                  1. Boa kaa
                    Boa kaa 15 September 2019 19: 46
                    0
                    Quote: Cat Man Null
                    And they say something basically like Russian, which is characteristic

                    Nah, Rum, you are deeply mistaken at their expense!
                    It is they who defecate in Russian with imported words! Type - cultural beasts, "the highest grade", and you - soviet immaturity ...
                    "Managery", in one word, what to take from them, the poor! In a decent establishment, they do not know how to use a knife and a three-pronged fork ... and in the same place ... the descendants of Sobakevich ... climb into the higher "society".
                    In short - LET'S RIDE here! And to learn and "cultivate" is not "hochut"!
            2. Dude
              Dude 15 September 2019 18: 55
              0
              . If not difficult - TRANSLATE, plz! bully

              Respected KAAThis will not bother me at all!
              From the English - old school (old school) - use bombs, not missiles, t. To respected midshipman wrote about bombs. More precisely, about the only one.))
              Just a joke on my part
      2. Doliva63
        Doliva63 15 September 2019 18: 54
        -1
        Quote: Dude
        Do not forget to eat the Yellowstone volcano in the USA. One nuclear bomb in it and the US will be eliminated naturally
        Not tired of posting this fierce nonsense ?!
        No one, absolutely no one can with due certainty scientific to calculate what it will lead to, and whether, in general, it will lead to any significant result, but every third person considers it his duty to write it ...
        Suggest to bang? (with)

        Why wouldn’t it go crazy? Is someone bothering you? If you are lucky, we will become planetary hegemons. But no, we’ll stay in the ass, nothing will change.
        1. Dude
          Dude 15 September 2019 19: 03
          0
          Why wouldn’t it go crazy? Is someone bothering you? If you're lucky, planets
          It may, of course, be lucky, but is it worth it to rely on?))
          Yes, and just tired of the constant mention of Yellowstone, as an analogue of the coming of St. George ... hi
    2. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 15 September 2019 10: 01
      +2
      Quote: midshipman
      Do not forget to eat the Yellowstone volcano in the USA. One nuclear bomb in it and the US will be eliminated naturally. So God punished them for their atrocities.
      If a nuclear bomb, then the path will no longer be natural. So it’s better to rely on nature. And yet, yes, that Yellowstone slept.
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 10: 16
        -9
        Quote: Nyrobsky
        If a nuclear bomb, then the path will no longer be natural. So it’s better to rely on nature. And yet, yes, that Yellowstone slept.

        Nyrobsky, but is it nothing that then the same hard-working people will suffer in their masses as ours, fooled by propaganda?
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 15 September 2019 10: 21
          +1
          Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
          but nothing that then they will suffer in the mass of the same hard-working people as we have duped by propaganda?

          Can you oppose something to nature? No. I can not, too. But you can’t argue against the elements, and she (the elements) is absolutely on the drum whoever the workaholic or the oligarch dies there. The bottom line is that it is not necessary to provoke its early awakening by conducting nuclear tests or exchanging nuclear strikes, because everyone will be the loser.
          1. IS-80_RVGK2
            IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 10: 34
            -5
            Quote: Nyrobsky
            The bottom line is that you do not need to provoke its early awakening by conducting nuclear tests or exchanging nuclear strikes, because everyone will be the loser.

            The bottom line is that I see no reason for your bloodthirstiness, well, apart from your stupidity in this matter, of course.
        2. Doliva63
          Doliva63 15 September 2019 18: 57
          +1
          Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
          Quote: Nyrobsky
          If a nuclear bomb, then the path will no longer be natural. So it’s better to rely on nature. And yet, yes, that Yellowstone slept.

          Nyrobsky, but is it nothing that then the same hard-working people will suffer in their masses as ours, fooled by propaganda?

          Since when is foolishness a mitigating circumstance?
          1. IS-80_RVGK2
            IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 20: 19
            0
            Quote: Doliva63
            Since when is foolishness a mitigating circumstance?

            Since the German people have not multiplied by zero.
            1. Doliva63
              Doliva63 16 September 2019 18: 43
              0
              Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
              Quote: Doliva63
              Since when is foolishness a mitigating circumstance?

              Since the German people have not multiplied by zero.

              I lived side by side with the German people for 9 years - normal people, sauerkraut with vodka and fat are consumed no worse than us laughing And according to your logic, all of us for Gorbi and AlcoEltsin, too, must be taken under the root of the lime - how many people died then, although there was no war!
    3. ccsr
      ccsr 15 September 2019 10: 28
      -2
      Quote: midshipman
      Do not forget to eat the Yellowstone volcano in the USA. One nuclear bomb in it and the US will be eliminated naturally.

      Firstly, it still has to fly there, and secondly, it is not a fact that the volcano will react to a regular charge of 400-500 kt, because such a charge is simply not enough to start tectonic processes.
      But that’s not even the point - until the volcano wakes up, we ourselves will rake in to the fullest of their duty forces, because we do not have a missile defense system capable of protecting the whole country, except for the Moscow region. So this scenario does not work - it does not guarantee us survival.
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 15 September 2019 11: 44
        0
        Quote: ccsr
        she still has to fly there,
        Do you doubt it? In vain! And secondly, VVP that for the sake of a catchphrase to the whole world told tales about "POSEIDON"? Well, this does not need to "fly"!
        Quote: ccsr
        It’s not a fact that the volcano will react to a regular charge in 400-500 ct, because such a charge is simply not enough to start tectonic processes.
        Lord And then 400-500 CT your fantasy does not work? Maybe they heard something about monoblocks in 10 Mt!? or other combat equipment options for heavy ICBMs?
        Quote: ccsr
        we ourselves will rake in to the fullest from their duty forces, because we do not have a missile defense system capable of protecting the whole country,
        These forces on duty were given to you! We will obviously have to answer not to the injection of the "forces on duty", but to the Moscow State University !!! And far from DSs will be involved in it!
        Quote: ccsr
        such a scenario does not work - it does not guarantee us survival.
        Our territory guarantees us survival! What can not be said about any other country in the world. yes
        1. Dude
          Dude 15 September 2019 12: 20
          0
          "POSEIDON"? Well, this does not need to "fly"!
          Exactly, he is at the Yellowstone Caldera will sail! laughing
          1. Boa kaa
            Boa kaa 15 September 2019 14: 44
            +1
            Quote: Dude
            he will sail to the Yellowstone Caldera!

            Of course not sail! But half the material will stir up - for sure! You look, and the cork from the caldera will be knocked out ... And there and everything else from the super-volcano will pour, sprinkle! This did not occur to the head, by chance? no? It's a pity... bully
            1. Dude
              Dude 15 September 2019 15: 26
              0
              Quote: BoA KAA
              Quote: Dude
              he will sail to the Yellowstone Caldera!

              Of course not sail! But half the material will stir up - for sure! You look, and the cork from the caldera will be knocked out ... And there and everything else from the super-volcano will pour, sprinkle! This did not occur to the head, by chance? no? It's a pity... bully

              Well, if you are thinking of using Poseidons against targets deep in the mainland, then the flag is in your hands, as they say. You, right in the best traditions of Psaki with the 6th fleet off the coast of Belarus laughing
              No, I understand, it’s a day off, and all that, but you’ll be more careful there, do not aggravate without measures, otherwise I’ll look at your head for what’s coming lol No matter how sick tomorrow, smile
              1. Boa kaa
                Boa kaa 15 September 2019 15: 38
                +1
                Quote: Dude
                if you’re thinking of using Poseidons against targets deep in the mainland, then you’ll have the flag in your hands,

                1. There is a good eastern proverb: "The last straw breaks the back of a camel!" (c) And here are 50 megaliths in one package ... Someone can give a guarantee that this will not be the only pebble that will cause an avalanche of eruption?
                2. Yes, you, as I look, are philosophical about everything! then comment, plz, this picture:


                1. Dude
                  Dude 15 September 2019 17: 18
                  +2
                  comment, plz, this picture
                  And what is there to comment, actually? Though already in 3 pictures?
                  On the top there are zones of predicted destruction from never (except one) bombs that did not exist. Well, the author of the drawing was amused, drew multi-colored circles and wrote the terrible figures as much as a whole 1000 Mt (the lip is not a fool). Leisure activities with a touch of gigantomania wassat
                  The second is an image of an imaginary tsunami.
                  The third, and not at all - a trace of radioactive contamination.
                  Well, if you operate on the categories of the Nuclear Map site, then of course you have to hit Mr. Cheyenne with torpedoes, and with the help of ICBMs fire AUG laughing good
                  Have fun.
                  What does Yellowstone have to do with something memorable?
                  Told you - tie))
                  1. Boa kaa
                    Boa kaa 15 September 2019 17: 51
                    0
                    Quote: Dude
                    Of course, torpedoes need to hit Mr. Cheyenne, and with the help of ICBMs fire AUG
                    "Wonderful are your deeds, Lord!" (from)
                    In Cheyenne, in addition to torpedoes, there is something to have fun. So, do not hesitate: who should be - they will work! But at the expense of ICBMs on the AUG - you are not far from the truth ... At least as a means of delivery to the OP area, it may well work. I'm not talking about the P-27K memorable and DF-21D Chinese bottling ...
                    Quote: Dude
                    Told you - tie

                    Colleague, your perseverance alarms me!
                    A joke repeated twice leads to certain thoughts ... Is not it?
                    1. Dude
                      Dude 15 September 2019 18: 48
                      0
                      In Cheyenne, in addition to torpedoes, there is something to have fun
                      Respected Udav, so I tell you what Taldych, sorry for the Basurm word! drinks
                      Something, I think, either we misunderstood each other, or overdid it with irony hi
                      About the Chinese exercises, about the re-incanation of R-27 you mentioned - I agree! The PKBR has potential, though there are problems - guidance, the first thing that comes to mind, but I think you are aware of the problems. (He said without irony.)
                      . Colleague, your perseverance is alarming me! ..

                      Colleague, do not worry - everything is under control wink But, thanks for participating!;)
                      1. Boa kaa
                        Boa kaa 15 September 2019 19: 03
                        +1
                        Quote: Dude
                        Thank you for participating!

                        And you, Serge, do not get sick! drinks
                      2. Dude
                        Dude 15 September 2019 19: 07
                        +1
                        Thank!! I am glad that we are in a similar position, and eliminated the slight misunderstanding! drinks Good evening to you!
                      3. Boa kaa
                        Boa kaa 15 September 2019 19: 32
                        0
                        Quote: Dude
                        Good evening to you!

                        Thank. And I wish you the same! hi
                  2. ccsr
                    ccsr 15 September 2019 21: 05
                    0
                    Quote: Dude
                    Well, the author of the drawing was amused, drew multi-colored circles and wrote the terrible figures as much as a whole 1000 Mt (the lip is not a fool).

                    I think that some illiterate wrote it - there are no such charges in nature, it is strange that this figure is given.
        2. Dude
          Dude 15 September 2019 12: 25
          +1
          ... 10 MT monoblocks!? or other combat equipment options for heavy ICBMs
          ... also do not guarantee super-eruptions and other blackjack with girls.
          For such gifts, IMHO, in the United States there are more necessary goals than an innocent National Park wink
          Our territory guarantees us survival! What can not be said about any other country in the world

          It is debatable - the distribution of the population and climatic conditions, in most of the country, for staff members is more profitable.
        3. ccsr
          ccsr 15 September 2019 12: 26
          +2
          Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
          Do you doubt it?

          I doubt that everything can be solved with one bomb, because our bombers have cruise missiles that can be shot down on approach.
          Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
          Lord And then 400-500 Kt your imagination does not work?

          I leave you fantasies - I somehow had no time for them when I really appreciated our probable adversary, at least with regard to the carriers of nuclear weapons on the European theater of operations.
          Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
          These forces on duty were given to you! We will obviously have to answer not to the injection of the "forces on duty", but to the Moscow State University !!! And far from DSs will be involved in it!

          Cap hacking cost us dearly in 1941, but then there was no nuclear weapon. Now, such kookies may not leave us any chance of survival after the start of a nuclear war.
          Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
          Our territory guarantees us survival! What can not be said about any other country in the world.

          The arrival of the "nuclear winter" will not leave a chance even for those who will live after a strategic nuclear war with our participation, so I leave optimism for the naive.
          1. Boa kaa
            Boa kaa 15 September 2019 15: 09
            0
            Quote: ccsr
            because our bombers have cruise missiles that can be shot down on approach.
            As one friend of mine said: "The penguin can be seen from the flight!" (from) laughing
            If you are going to the States ... this-this ... with the help of YES and their KRBD, and not with "strands" from the Strategic Missile Forces, then what to talk about with PENGUIN? request
            Quote: ccsr
            when I really evaluated our potential adversary, at least in terms of nuclear weapons carriers on the European theater of operations.
            And where did they have there, at least BRDS? or (God forbid!) ICBMs? But TA and OTR may not break through air defense / missile defense on a theater of war, and the object too ... So, closer to the realities of STRATEGY and OI, finish with tactics, colleague!
            Quote: ccsr
            after strategic nuclear war
            Pancake! Yes you, I’ll look - an innovator! Introduce new concepts into SIOI! fellow
            Global (universal) vigorous war ... I know.
            Limited (local) ... passed ...
            But the STRATEGIC vigorous war - for the first time I hear!
            Although the intention is clear: like - by analogy with "OPERATIONS" ... but that's just the scale ... of this .... OPERATION and WAR - are incomparable!
            You at least catch the difference, "strategius" you are our homebrew !? laughing
            And besides - go for it! We all need the Gridasovs: without them, life becomes gray and boring ... there’s nothing to laugh, to mock; without them it becomes! laughing
            GOOD LUCK.
            1. ccsr
              ccsr 15 September 2019 20: 49
              0
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              If you are going to the States

              It's not me who is going to, but another author thought so - at least read the text carefully before clever.
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              And where did they have there, at least BRDS?

              For example, in my time there was a squadron of MRBM "S-3" with headquarters in Apte - is that enough for you to begin with?
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              So, closer to the realities of STRATEGY and OI, finish with tactics, colleague!

              How do you know what real level I had in different years of service?
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              Pancake! Yes you, I’ll look - an innovator! Introduce new concepts into SIOI!

              No innovation - countries with strategic nuclear forces can wage war using only nuclear weapons against other countries. They studied it under the king of peas, but you probably missed classes on command training.
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              You at least catch the difference, "strategius" you are our homebrew !?

              Don’t be clever - your flight immediately became clear to me, since you even did not hear anything about the European RMDS.
              1. Boa kaa
                Boa kaa 16 September 2019 20: 58
                0
                Quote: ccsr
                in my time there was a squadron of MRBM "S-3"
                The 95 squadron was disbanded in 1996: in 1996, the 1 group, and in 1996 the second group.
                Quote: ccsr
                what was my real level
                Yes, this is just understandable from the opus about the attack on the United States by YES ...
                Quote: ccsr
                No innovation
                Well, don't be shy! And your discovery of a "strategic" nuclear war! It is something!!!
                Quote: ccsr
                you even did not hear anything about the European RMDS.
                We didn’t take it seriously into account: in 1966, France left the NATO military organization (though in 2009 it returned) And the French planned to use S-3 against the GDR, which caused a violent reaction from the West Germans ... So, you could not strain ...
                There is more that about M20, M45 and M51 you did not remember anything ... But also European SLBMs!
                1. ccsr
                  ccsr 17 September 2019 12: 27
                  0
                  Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
                  The 95 squadron was disbanded in 1996: in 1996, the 1 group, and in 1996 the second group.

                  And what changes this - I still found Pershing in Europe. Whether or not there is an RMSD in Europe, the question was, and as it turned out, you do not know this.
                  Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
                  Yes, this is just understandable from the opus about the attack on the United States by YES ...

                  I don’t know what you mean, so do not put a shadow on the wattle fence, and specifically express yourself.
                  Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
                  Well, don't be shy! And your discovery of a "strategic" nuclear war! It is something!!!

                  This is not a discovery - there were several scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons, ranging from the detonation of nuclear mines on the German border. You are simply not in the subject, and you have no simpler ideas about this, which is why this discovery is for you.
                  Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
                  We did not take it seriously into account: in 1966, France left the NATO military organization (although in 2009 it returned) And the French planned to use S-3 against the GDR, which caused a violent reaction from the West Germans ...

                  No need to lie - their flight range was such that they not only hit Moscow, but also many industrial areas of the European part of the USSR.
                  A monoblock warhead TN 61 with a thermonuclear charge of 1,2 Mt was used. The warhead was equipped with a fuse, providing air and contact detonation.
                  ... The maximum range of the S-3 missile was brought up to 3700 km. The probable circular deviation was declared at the level of 700 m. During the flight, the rocket rose to a height of up to 1000 km.

                  https://topwar.ru/103152-ballisticheskaya-raketa-sredney-dalnosti-s-3-franciya.html
                  By the way, who is this "we" who did not take into account the European carriers of nuclear weapons?
                  Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
                  There are more that about M20, M45 and M51 you did not remember anything ..

                  Do not show your denseness - their BF and Black Sea Fleet were monitored, they had the strength and means for this and they reported their results. Or maybe you do not know who is responsible for what in the armed forces? By the way, if you have already decided to "enlighten" me about the European theater of operations, then why did they not remember Great Britain?
  10. Kontrik
    Kontrik 15 September 2019 08: 41
    +7
    I read the article .. And it only sounds in my head!
    We don’t want war, but we won’t even kneel ... If we have to, we have no other choice .. Indeed, according to Western plans, Russia should not exist and Russians are first and foremost .. They are already saying this in plain text.
    1. Olgovich
      Olgovich 15 September 2019 10: 44
      +1
      Quote: Kontrik
      If we have to bang, we have no other choice ..

      «And why do we need such a world if Russia will not be there? "V. Putin

      And he is right!
  11. AB
    AB 15 September 2019 09: 20
    +1
    How old, can one reason about the same thing? Everyone has long been aware of the possibility of an unintended nuclear strike. Once upon a time, measures have been taken to eliminate such cases. And again, the scientist makes predictions. Who is he telling this to? He tells us. The country proclaiming not a nuclear strike first! Those. he gradually suggests, before responding to the registered launch of missiles towards Russia, to wait until they fall on the heads of our citizens. Well, well, and this is an academician of the RAS ...
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 15 September 2019 11: 49
      +3
      Quote: AB
      Well, well, and this is an academician of the RAS ...

      At one time we joked about his dad: "Humpbacked, Georgy Arbatov, only the grave will fix it!" Papanya is in purgatory, and his son continues the "humpback" work, merging our doctrine under the Yankes ...
      In truth: "an apple from an apple tree ..."
  12. mark2
    mark2 15 September 2019 09: 36
    0
    Aren't there too many "widespread" articles in one day?
    2.Academician Alexey Arbatov. The son of GA Arbatov, one of the "gravediggers" of the USSR.

    Autumn has arrived. Those who returned from the holidays began an autumn aggravation.
  13. Vitaly Tsymbal
    Vitaly Tsymbal 15 September 2019 09: 38
    -2
    Scripting is creativity, not scientific analysis and calculation. The voiced script has been known since the 20th century. And Hollywood has already shot a "bunch" of films based on this scenario. Why this article appeared on VO is not clear. It would be much more interesting to get specific information about modern bomb shelters than to repeat "hackneyed scenarios" again. Claims not to academician Arbatov, but to those who form the information and semantic policy of the MILITARY REVIEW,
  14. To be or not to be
    To be or not to be 15 September 2019 09: 44
    +5
    “Charles Kupperman, Trump’s new national security adviser, is on the line.

    He was a member of the Reagan administration (executive director of the General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament) and made the following statements in the TOT PERIOD - of course, that was a long time ago, but he reveals the logic of reasoning perfectly:

    1. In a nuclear war, it is entirely possible to defeat in the classical way; reasoning about it as a total destruction is groundless.

    2. If, for example, US losses can be limited to 20 million people against 150 million, the US will be able to recover and become stronger than the enemy

    3. The United States needs to strengthen planning and civil defense, use reinforced materials in construction - this will reduce the damage from the massive exchange of nuclear strikes with Russia, and accelerate recovery.

    4. Let the recovery take even 15 years. So what? Look at the speed of Europe's recovery after WWII. Or, for example, take a look at Hiroshima - the city went into operational mode only 3 days after we bombed it. "Https://aftershock.news/?q=node/788859&full
    However .... if advisers are taken with such thoughts, then .. ????
    1. Alex Justice
      Alex Justice 15 September 2019 11: 02
      0
      If, for example, US losses can be limited to 20 million

      This means that America will fall to the level of Mexico and will be one more Latin American country in terms of living.
  15. Bshkaus
    Bshkaus 15 September 2019 10: 03
    -2
    Aw, horror stories again.
    During World War II, even such "aces" as Hitler and Stalin (here the comparison is solely as two leaders at the head of two states possessing a powerful military machine, and not according to political or some other criteria) did not dare to apply OV when the enemy stood on the approach to the capital (that Stalin is 2m, that Hitler is 41m). So no one will use nuclear weapons either.
    Of course, they will object to me now and say that the United States dropped bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. BUT!!! They knew 100% that this would be unpunished, and besides, it was a pure act of intimidation of everyone and everything (including the USSR).
    Now this number will not pass:
    firstly, there are no longer scared.
    secondly, everything will be bad, and the instinct of self-preservation remains even among the most stubborn, and fortunately the USA and the Russian Federation do not suffer from fanaticism.
    1. Olgovich
      Olgovich 15 September 2019 11: 06
      -1
      Quote: Bshkaus
      During World War II, even such "aces" as Hitler and Stalin (here the comparison is solely as two leaders at the head of two states possessing a powerful military machine, and not by political or some other criteria) did not dare to apply the OV when the enemy was on the way to the capital (that Stalin is 2m, that Hitler is 41m).

      The USSR could not apply, for the answer was inevitable, and against the new German agents, he did not have gas masks.
      Churchill delivered an ultimatum to Hitler, pointing out that the use of OM against the USSR would be regarded as its use against England, which would entail its massive use against German cities. It scared the Germans deadly
      1. Bshkaus
        Bshkaus 15 September 2019 13: 27
        0
        Churchill delivered an ultimatum to Churchill

        That's right, and most importantly in all of this - result
        For some reason it seems to me that if a particularly violent patient appears in a hospital (in the world) (a country that wants to use nuclear weapons), then the whole world will "calm down" him without saying a word. Where it is possible with a kind word and pacification, where it is impossible, they simply liquidate it. radiation is such a thing - he does not know state borders and does not understand his / hers. And who wants to suffer because of some kind of psycho?
        In any case, I have had many conflicts in my life when someone from violent (for example, drunk) tried to start sorting out relationships.
        In such cases, I always turn to a more sober friend with the question of whether he understands that his comrade, in the case of a fight, is, to put it mildly, ineffectual, so I will fight with him, and not with a drunk man.
        Practice shows that in such cases, even if she was sober and so violent, too violent, friends begin to calm him down - this is a natural process.
  16. ccsr
    ccsr 15 September 2019 10: 17
    +2
    According to Arbatov, one cannot disregard the usual technical failure, as a result of which missile attack warning systems will work. If one of the parties responds to a false alarm with a real blow, this may lead to the start of a full-scale nuclear war.

    It’s some kind of amateurish nonsense, because the warning system is the very last stage of the response of our armed forces leadership to the attack, after they have already received information from strategic intelligence systems about preparations for delivering such an attack by the enemy. I immediately recall the myth about the actions of one lieutenant colonel from the KP of the warning system about the attack, which supposedly prevented the world from the third world war, when there was a false positive in computer systems. In general, another tale for the illiterate is to hide the preparations for a nuclear war, it is simply impossible, if only because of the evacuation of the highest official structures of our enemy and the preparation of their armed forces to repel a retaliatory strike.
    The second scenario of the outbreak of a nuclear war involves the escalation of a local military conflict into a global one, when one side, anticipating its loss, uses tactical nuclear weapons to de-escalate, but this does not stop the second side, which also uses nuclear weapons.

    Again, some amateurish nonsense - why should we get into a local conflict with the Americans, using tactical nuclear weapons at first, if we know that we must immediately destroy them using the full potential of the strategic nuclear forces so that we ourselves are not destroyed. And to imagine that because of some Papuans we will begin to use tactical nuclear weapons against the Americans, it can only occur to a sick person. Even in Yugoslavia, when our army was not at its best, Western commanders didn’t have to destroy our paratroopers after a march to Pristina - this is the best evidence that Western military professionals are well aware of the power of our army and will never climb on rampage .
    In general, it is less necessary to listen to people like Arbatov - these pseudo-scientific "academicians" are still dreamers, and often they have no idea at all how everything works in the armed forces.
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 10: 58
      -1
      Quote: ccsr
      Again, some amateurish nonsense - why should we get into a local conflict with the Americans, using tactical nuclear weapons at first, if we know that we must immediately destroy them using the full potential of the strategic nuclear forces so that we ourselves are not destroyed.

      You didn’t understand what he was talking about. Nuclear weapons will be used by the losing side to stop the victor without bringing to a global nuclear war.
      Quote: ccsr
      And to imagine that because of some Papuans we will begin to use tactical nuclear weapons against the Americans, it can only occur to a sick person.

      And where does he talk about the Papuans?
      1. ccsr
        ccsr 15 September 2019 11: 47
        0
        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        You didn’t understand what he was talking about. Nuclear weapons will be used by the losing side to stop the victor without bringing to a global nuclear war.

        It’s just that you’re off topic, that’s nonsense that the Americans or we will be the losing side in the local conflict and use nuclear weapons. In today's Syria, or earlier in Vietnam they used it?
        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        And where does he talk about the Papuans?

        And where did you see a local conflict in our territory?
        1. IS-80_RVGK2
          IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 12: 59
          -3
          Quote: ccsr
          It’s just that you’re off topic, that’s nonsense that the Americans or we will be the losing side in the local conflict and use nuclear weapons. In today's Syria, or earlier in Vietnam they used it?

          So what? Does this somehow prove the impossibility of using nuclear weapons? Do you recall Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
          Quote: ccsr
          And where did you see a local conflict in our territory?

          Are you there in your mind where I spoke about the local conflict in our territory? It is clear that he is arguing with his own voices in his head, yet another insane self-conceit.
          1. ccsr
            ccsr 15 September 2019 20: 33
            0
            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            So what? Does this somehow prove the impossibility of using nuclear weapons? Do you recall Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

            No, because then there was no second nuclear power with intercontinental missiles.
            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            Are you there in your mind where I spoke about the local conflict in our territory?

            Well, name at least roughly where Russia could use the armed forces against the American army - at least name the region, and our interests, in order to understand why the hell would we use nuclear weapons against them.
            Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
            It is clear that he is arguing with his own voices in his head, yet another insane self-conceit.

            Blown away?
            1. IS-80_RVGK2
              IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 20: 41
              -1
              Quote: ccsr
              No, because then there was no second nuclear power with intercontinental missiles.

              So what? PRO to help you.
              Quote: ccsr
              Well, name at least roughly where Russia could use the armed forces against the American army - at least name the region, and our interests, in order to understand why the hell would we use nuclear weapons against them.

              Yes, anywhere, but most likely in eastern Europe.
              Quote: ccsr
              Blown away?

              Schoolboy?
              1. ccsr
                ccsr 15 September 2019 21: 29
                0
                Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
                Yes, anywhere, but most likely in eastern Europe.

                "Anywhere" it means that you could even come up with anything - the "theoretician" is strong. We do not need the defeat of Eastern Europe at all - it is important for us, first of all, to hit the continental territory of the United States. Anything else you dream up?
                Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
                Schoolboy?

                Of course.
        2. Alf
          Alf 15 September 2019 20: 52
          0
          Quote: ccsr
          It’s just that you’re off topic, that’s nonsense that the Americans or we will be the losing side in the local conflict and use nuclear weapons. In today's Syria, or earlier in Vietnam they used it?
          Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
          And where does he talk about the Papuans?

          And where did you see a local conflict in our territory?

          Military doctrine of Russia.
    2. Doliva63
      Doliva63 15 September 2019 19: 15
      -1
      Quote: ccsr
      According to Arbatov, one cannot disregard the usual technical failure, as a result of which missile attack warning systems will work. If one of the parties responds to a false alarm with a real blow, this may lead to the start of a full-scale nuclear war.

      It’s some kind of amateurish nonsense, because the warning system is the very last stage of the response of our armed forces leadership to the attack, after they have already received information from strategic intelligence systems about preparations for delivering such an attack by the enemy. I immediately recall the myth about the actions of one lieutenant colonel from the KP of the warning system about the attack, which supposedly prevented the world from the third world war, when there was a false positive in computer systems. In general, another tale for the illiterate is to hide the preparations for a nuclear war, it is simply impossible, if only because of the evacuation of the highest official structures of our enemy and the preparation of their armed forces to repel a retaliatory strike.
      The second scenario of the outbreak of a nuclear war involves the escalation of a local military conflict into a global one, when one side, anticipating its loss, uses tactical nuclear weapons to de-escalate, but this does not stop the second side, which also uses nuclear weapons.

      Again, some amateurish nonsense - why should we get into a local conflict with the Americans, using tactical nuclear weapons at first, if we know that we must immediately destroy them using the full potential of the strategic nuclear forces so that we ourselves are not destroyed. And to imagine that because of some Papuans we will begin to use tactical nuclear weapons against the Americans, it can only occur to a sick person. Even in Yugoslavia, when our army was not at its best, Western commanders didn’t have to destroy our paratroopers after a march to Pristina - this is the best evidence that Western military professionals are well aware of the power of our army and will never climb on rampage .
      In general, it is less necessary to listen to people like Arbatov - these pseudo-scientific "academicians" are still dreamers, and often they have no idea at all how everything works in the armed forces.

      Falling down, colleague! Do you still think that someone is conducting serious reconnaissance against our "partners"? I do not believe in this. There is no one and there is no need.
      1. ccsr
        ccsr 15 September 2019 20: 53
        0
        Quote: Doliva63
        Do you still think that someone is conducting serious reconnaissance against our "partners"? I do not believe in this. There is no one and there is no need.

        You think so in vain - not like in the days of the USSR, but even now cabbage soup is not being sacked, since our IL-20 is in Syria. Do you think that Tartus is important to us, and not the electronic intelligence center, which was in the days of the USSR?
        1. Doliva63
          Doliva63 16 September 2019 18: 56
          0
          Quote: ccsr
          Quote: Doliva63
          Do you still think that someone is conducting serious reconnaissance against our "partners"? I do not believe in this. There is no one and there is no need.

          You think so in vain - not like in the days of the USSR, but even now cabbage soup is not being sacked, since our IL-20 is in Syria. Do you think that Tartus is important to us, and not the electronic intelligence center, which was in the days of the USSR?

          Well, judging by his fate and the lack of replacement - not very important. However, I have not been following events for a long time. I just have a categorical rejection of everything non-Soviet. Maybe I'm biased.
          1. ccsr
            ccsr 16 September 2019 19: 10
            0
            Quote: Doliva63
            Well, judging by his fate and the lack of replacement - not very important.

            Fate is not an indicator, especially since the number of Il-20m located there cannot be judged if the air squad arrived, or maybe not one.
            Quote: Doliva63
            I just have a categorical rejection of everything non-Soviet.

            Believe me, many people continue to work honestly and create new equipment, as well as work on it.
            1. Doliva63
              Doliva63 16 September 2019 19: 30
              0
              Quote: ccsr
              Quote: Doliva63
              Well, judging by his fate and the lack of replacement - not very important.

              Fate is not an indicator, especially since the number of Il-20m located there cannot be judged if the air squad arrived, or maybe not one.
              Quote: Doliva63
              I just have a categorical rejection of everything non-Soviet.

              Believe me, many people continue to work honestly and create new equipment, as well as work on it.

              Yeah. Have you not read how the "left" rockets were made on Novator and on ZiK? Working honestly under capitalism is nonsense. Here they "work" only for the "grandmother". Honesty is a thing of the past. Our reality is that money is everything.
              1. ccsr
                ccsr 17 September 2019 12: 03
                0
                Quote: Doliva63
                Our reality is that everything is money.

                And in Soviet times, not a single prototype without money was made.
                Quote: Doliva63
                Honesty is in the past.

                S-400 was developed and done by our compatriots. Do you think they have no concept of honesty?
                I think that we need to really look at today's life, even if you and I do not like it. And to think first of all that we should not disappear in the heat of the struggle for the self-improvement of Russian people.
                1. Doliva63
                  Doliva63 17 September 2019 19: 03
                  0
                  Quote: ccsr
                  Quote: Doliva63
                  Our reality is that everything is money.

                  And in Soviet times, not a single prototype without money was made.
                  Quote: Doliva63
                  Honesty is in the past.

                  S-400 was developed and done by our compatriots. Do you think they have no concept of honesty?
                  I think that we need to really look at today's life, even if you and I do not like it. And to think first of all that we should not disappear in the heat of the struggle for the self-improvement of Russian people.

                  To the money account. Colleague, you would take a look at the economics of socialism, or something. And we will disappear not "in the heat of the struggle for self-perfection of the Russian people", but in the heat of the next redistribution of the global market. The golden time of the country is the 30s-60s. Economic growth unavailable in the West and confidence in the future.
                  1. ccsr
                    ccsr 17 September 2019 20: 34
                    -2
                    Quote: Doliva63
                    At the expense of money. A colleague, would you be interested in the economy of socialism, or something.

                    I paid for R&D - so I don’t have to tell me anything about it.
                    Quote: Doliva63
                    And we will disappear not "in the heat of the struggle for self-perfection of the Russian people", but in the heat of the next redistribution of the global market.

                    There have already been times in our history when we destroyed each other long before the Great October Revolution, and it is very unfortunate if we forget about it. And we can not take into account the global market - we are self-sufficient, and we have everything.
                    Quote: Doliva63
                    and confidence in the future.

                    Confidence in the future gives us only ONE institute of our armed forces - on-duty strategic nuclear forces. Everything else we can neglect.
  17. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 15 September 2019 10: 20
    0
    "Maybe we bang, comrade warrant officer? We bang, we will definitely bang, but then." (x / f "DMB"). Naturally, there is no reason for a sane person to start a nuclear war, but the second option
    The second scenario of the start of a nuclear war involves the escalation of a local military conflict into a global
    not so unlikely.
  18. Vadim237
    Vadim237 15 September 2019 10: 22
    -1
    Russia needs to develop and implement its national missile defense - the existing A 235 and C 500 will not be enough for this, the more they have restrictions on intercepting ICBM warheads.
    1. Alf
      Alf 15 September 2019 20: 55
      0
      Quote: Vadim237
      Russia needs to develop and implement its national missile defense -

      ABM stuff is very expensive, is there any money for it in modern Russia?
      I really want this system to stand around every city, but knowing the realities of modern Russia, there is little hope for this ...
  19. IS-80_RVGK2
    IS-80_RVGK2 15 September 2019 10: 32
    0
    The unwanted academic has decided to play cap?
  20. Operator
    Operator 15 September 2019 10: 38
    +1
    Lesha Zhorikovich Arbatoff still offers to give up.
  21. dirk182
    dirk182 15 September 2019 11: 59
    -1
    Lord, how did all these foretellers and analysts get it. Hit, then hit. We will answer. These articles
    and plots have already become a necessary attribute of modern Russian media. Apparently, a bad example of the programs "Time Will Show" and "60 Minutes", where the theater of the absurd reigns, is contagious. Now all kinds of "experts" in the field of politics, geopolitics, stylistics are racing towards a "possible conflict". If everything is so, maybe we'd better start restoring the shelters ??? And not with tongues
  22. ugol2
    ugol2 15 September 2019 13: 29
    +4
    That case when the situation is stalemate. And without nuclear weapons it is impossible, otherwise TMV will begin tomorrow, and nuclear weapons are too dangerous.
    No one can offer a way out of this situation.
    1. Vadmir
      Vadmir 15 September 2019 15: 43
      +2
      And without nuclear weapons it is impossible, otherwise TMV will begin tomorrow
      Agree
      and nuclear weapons are too dangerous
      Since 1945, we somehow live in the Nuclear Era and continue to live calmly (well, maybe not calmly).
      This is the paradoxical case when the more weapons, the less chance of war.
  23. NERV
    NERV 15 September 2019 13: 44
    -4
    So Russia was the first of the INF Treaty. What are these threats for?
    1. Vadmir
      Vadmir 15 September 2019 15: 45
      +1
      So Russia was the first of the INF Treaty
      Really ?!
  24. zenion
    zenion 15 September 2019 14: 01
    0
    It can start with the explosion of a single nuclear bomb. May start with explosions of two nuclear bombs. It can begin by throwing stones, feces and severed hands and feet, already baked.
  25. Popov Konstantin Ivanovich
    Popov Konstantin Ivanovich 15 September 2019 14: 42
    0
    The funniest thing SCENARIOS wassat suicide. Will they get an Oscar for these scripts? And the audience, in the sense of the survivors will be? what
  26. Rus2012
    Rus2012 15 September 2019 15: 40
    +1
    Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
    if a vigorous mine hits, it will be too late to "drink Borjomi": It is easy to release a nuclear genie from storage, but it will be difficult to drive it back there ...

    ... there is still an unaccounted for 3 option, the provocation of the "deep government" - the detonation of a nuclear land mine on their territory, which they "highlighted" will impose on Russia. And this automatically triggers the logic of a nuclear war.
    1. Sergey M. Karasev
      Sergey M. Karasev 16 September 2019 05: 15
      0
      To do this, the "deep rulers" need to be 99 (9)% confident in victory, otherwise it will be a particularly sophisticated version of collective suicide. But they do not have such confidence and are unlikely to appear.
  27. Kibl
    Kibl 15 September 2019 16: 14
    0
    The main thing is not quantity, but quality ......
  28. iouris
    iouris 15 September 2019 16: 31
    -2
    In 1991, the Perimeter system malfunctioned, but no one knows how it works. But the results are evident.
  29. Rus2012
    Rus2012 15 September 2019 17: 03
    0
    Quote: iouris
    "Perimeter" crashed


    "Dead hand" - cannot fail from the word "absolutely" ...
    Failure can be given only by single primary devices, the operation of which is repeatedly duplicated, tripled, checked / rechecked.
    1. Doliva63
      Doliva63 15 September 2019 19: 25
      -1
      Quote: Rus2012
      Quote: iouris
      "Perimeter" crashed


      "Dead hand" - cannot fail from the word "absolutely" ...
      Failure can be given only by single primary devices, the operation of which is repeatedly duplicated, tripled, checked / rechecked.

      I don't know if "primary devices" exist today at all. And a failure and a mobile phone can give. But you can reboot it. But you can reboot the communication system in the FIG Perimeter when "if that". It seems to me that for 20 years the Russian Federation has had one strategy in this matter - if that is what, 5% of our warheads will be enough for everyone. That is what we live.
      1. ccsr
        ccsr 15 September 2019 21: 13
        0
        Quote: Doliva63
        It seems to me that for about 20 years the Russian Federation has had one strategy on this issue - if so, 5% of our warheads that will fly will be enough for everyone. That is how we live.

        It’s hard to say exactly how long it will fly, but thirty years ago the Americans considered it unacceptable for them to hit 100 nuclear charges of 500 kt or more on their territory, because this would lead to complete chaos even because of the secondary consequences of such an attack.
        I think that this will always restrain them, while we are able to provide them with this. The main thing is cheap and cheerful.
  30. Aqr009
    Aqr009 15 September 2019 20: 20
    0
    The third option is possible if weapons are created that are superior to nuclear, but not so toxic.
  31. ric
    ric 15 September 2019 20: 24
    0
    Somehow Putin said why peace is needed if Russia does not exist in it. Russia will apply ya.o. when it will threaten her with complete destruction. Khrushchev also told the Americans that in the USSR there is a 100 megaton bomb, if the USSR would face an imminent death, then this bomb would be used even if the globe was split.




    .
    1. Alf
      Alf 15 September 2019 20: 58
      +1
      Quote: ric
      Somehow Putin said why peace is needed if Russia does not exist in it. Russia will apply ya.o. when it will threaten her with complete destruction.

      Where do the children of Putin, Medvedev, Peskov live?
      1. Mordvin 3
        Mordvin 3 15 September 2019 21: 15
        +1
        Quote: Alf
        Where do the children of Putin live

        One in the Netherlands seems to be, and the second jumped out to marry a Korean.
        Quote: Alf
        Medvedev

        Yes, hell knows them ...
        Quote: Alf
        peskova

        In Paris, like ... recourse
        1. Alf
          Alf 15 September 2019 21: 16
          +1
          That's it. Involuntarily I recall a joke about Saratov ...
    2. ccsr
      ccsr 15 September 2019 21: 22
      0
      Quote: ric
      Khrushchev also told the Americans that in the USSR there is a 100 megaton bomb, if the USSR would face an imminent death, then this bomb would be used even if the globe was split.

      Nikita Sergeevich at one time received the nickname "Nikita the Miracle Worker" - we did not have such charges then, because on Novaya Zemlya they experienced a smaller charge.
      But what was really in the SA, now you can see in the museum
      1. DDT
        DDT 16 September 2019 14: 53
        0
        You are wrong, there was a charge. It was "reduced", otherwise, as Khrushchev himself said, "in Moscow the glasses would have blown out." laughing
        1. ccsr
          ccsr 16 September 2019 18: 53
          0
          Quote: DDT
          You are wrong, there was a charge. It was "reduced", otherwise, as Khrushchev himself said, "in Moscow the glasses would have blown out."

          I know this version, but the matter is not even in the charge itself, but in the fact that it was a prototype, and not a regular charge.
  32. frizzy
    frizzy 15 September 2019 20: 45
    -1
    Yes, it’s time already, we can pull the lope. Or pan or disappeared.
  33. Igor Dvornikov
    Igor Dvornikov 16 September 2019 07: 43
    0
    It’s better for the Americans, just in case, to give up right now!
  34. DDT
    DDT 16 September 2019 14: 51
    0
    Well, the first option, all the same, it will be necessary to prepare. Bring the heat to the limit, worsen relations to the brink of war ... then the failure will be so believable that a nuclear war will begin.
    But the second option seems more plausible to me if the superpowers continue to unleash and participate in proxy wars.
    I'm wondering what Trump is hoping for with his anti-Russian hysteria? That there are enough prudent people in Russia who will continue to allow the United States to do whatever they want? Lizh would not bring God forbid to "system failure"? So in my opinion, patience has run out ...
    Or is he old, like in a ditty, and does he care? So he has the same kind of children and grandchildren ?!
  35. Alexander Skorik
    Alexander Skorik 16 September 2019 23: 04
    0
    And here I think this way: - our (selling) so-called elite has accounts over the hill, real estate, as well as their families there too. For them, Russia is a place of robbery and nothing more. So someone will allow a nuclear strike on their native west, where they have it all. And Russia - burn it with a blue flame !!!. Stalin and his associates, as well as the entire leadership of the USSR in the west, had nothing and therefore it was difficult to hook us, BUT NOT NOW !!!
  36. DDT
    DDT 18 September 2019 02: 57
    +1
    Poles of power. Russia is returning to the world stage, China is growing, India is pulling up, most likely this only gives hope that the world will come to multipolarity. But those in power have no fear of nuclear war. They have bunkers, yachts ... who knows, maybe they hope to stay in orbit. In any case, we will find ourselves in the trenches, since we have children, they must be protected ... Homeland, not an empty phrase. And there is no money in the bank so that you can buy a ticket to the Ark soldier