So fly or fly?

So, every day it becomes more and more interesting in terms of analytics. Especially in aviation. After the miraculous transformation of the once-international MAKS airshow into a branch of the Chinese airshow China airshow, the reduction of the state defense order for military aircraft and the complete helplessness of civilian aircraft industry, an epoch-making decision was made: to send Anatoly Serdyukov to save the industry.

So fly or fly?

I will not comment on the appointment, with the person of the savior it became clear to me even when he was not imprisoned. “Relief” of “Helicopters of Russia” by tens of millions of rubles for the sake of a concert of a pretty moldy lover to go to the platform by car - this is already perceived as so ... Ordinary.

Well, we’ll talk about MAKS separately, as well as the capabilities of the “industrial director of the aviation cluster of Rostec state corporation.” This is now called the new chair of Mr. Serdyukov.

“We are particularly concerned about the significant loan portfolio of the UAC. The company does not allow defaults on debt obligations. However, its operating flow is not enough to pay off old debts and not build up new ones in the course of business ”
- said Serdyukov.

The fact that the people are concerned Serdyukov, can be neglected. But a lot lies in the words of Mr. Leader. For example, from the words of Serdyukov in the future it follows that the debts of the KLA were formed in the process of solving state problems.

It really is. It is very difficult to argue with this.

Indeed, there was a time when many defense industry enterprises worked in the Soviet style “all for the good of the state”, financing themselves, at the expense of borrowed funds. This was all over the place, until enterprises finally entered the market and adapted to its conditions. Who survived, naturally.

I personally almost like the following quote from Serdyukov, no matter how strange it may sound.

“The problem of their (debts. - Approx. Aut.) Embroidery requires a comprehensive solution with the participation of the state. The issue is now being worked out in close contact with federal executive bodies. At the same time, we understand that state assistance obliges us to make significant changes in the operational activities of the UAC and, possibly, will lead to a reform of the aircraft industry as a whole. ”
- said Serdyukov.

A double feeling, to be honest. Especially if you recall the successful reform of the army by the Minister of Defense Serdyukov ... Just frost on the skin from the prospects opening up to the aircraft industry. But the state’s participation in the liquidation of these debts looks ... It just looks.

Some "optimists" seriously say that Serdyukov managed to reform the army. It seems to be not without miscalculations, but in general ... In general, dear readers, you yourself are able to conclude how successful Serdyukov was in his reforms.

I mean the reforms, and not the boxes with jewelry from the mistress in the multi-room apartments in the center of Moscow, I hope this is understandable.

Now here is the experience of reforming everything and everything will be applied to the KLA.

First, of course, there will be an audit and evaluation. This is to then transfer the assets of the UAC to Rostec. All this will happen in the first half of the 2020 year. Thus, 24 of the main aircraft plant and 15 repair, which make up the core of the UAC, will begin to turn from unprofitable to profitable.

Again quote from Serdyukov.

“The main task at the upcoming stage is to establish effective cooperation between the UAC factories and other enterprises of the Rostec aviation cluster, including holding companies with specialization in the field of engine building, avionics, aircraft equipment, and helicopter engineering.”

A strange phrase, to be honest. Somewhat incomprehensible, there was no cooperation? Rostec aviation enterprises lived on their own, and the UAC - on its own? Or was cooperation still, but ineffective? But for the sake of such a thing, is it really necessary to arrange such a merger?

“From these trips and workshops, there is an unambiguous conclusion that there are reserves for closer and more effective joint work of aircraft manufacturing enterprises and suppliers.”

I believe. And there simply cannot be no reserves. But again the same question: is the integration of the UAC in Rostec a necessary step for the proper implementation of these reserves, or is it a redistribution of property and redistribution of financial flows?

Something tells me that the second option is more vital.

And there is confirmation from Serdyukov. According to him, "in the KLA there are an excess of the number of leaders at various levels, therefore recommendations are given for optimizing the central office."

That is, on the one hand, everything is more or less logical and transparent. The inflated (I do not exclude, by the way) managerial staff in the light of the transfer of the UAC to Rostec will be reduced and they will ask for extra ones. Including top managers of the highest level, who are often holders of shares. What about stocks? We’ll see, although they’re unlikely to tell us.

There is already evidence that the newspaper “Vzglyad” repeatedly wrote) that UAC subsidiaries have also launched the process of dismissing employees in droves. Who and how to be fired is not yet reported, but ...

According to Serdyukov, “qualified engineering and design personnel do not affect organizational events.” Well, not bad, another question, if you don’t touch the best of the best, what will happen to the best of the worst?

But what about other people? I had in mind the unpleasant moment that was announced in 2015 by the president of the UAC, Yuri Slyusar. He said then that the UAC is experiencing an acute shortage of personnel, and projects to create modern civilian aircraft require more employees.

They promised to recruit about 17 thousand people over the 2015-2017 years. It’s hard to say how much they got, but what will happen to them? After all, this is clearly not the most qualified personnel.

And now - layoffs. And here it’s not even a reorganization of guilt. The fault, in my opinion, is the poor financial condition of the KLA, which is not easy to hide.

In 2018, the corporation showed a net loss of 30 billion rubles. In 2017 there was a profit, not so big, 196 millions, but a profit. In the 2016 year there was a loss, but a small (compared to the 2018 year), total 3,2 billion rubles.

Warmer isn't it? 30 billion rubles - this is not that "inefficient cooperation" with allies, it is a more serious reason.

All debts of the corporation are estimated at approximately 350 billion rubles. Or 5,3 billion dollars, if anyone is interested.

Not so long ago, the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, personally at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin asked the state 300 billions of rubles for the "final financial recovery" of the KLA.

That is, to pay off debts and finish work on the MS-21 project, which nevertheless must fly and work out the funds spent on it.

Chemezov confirmed that the KLA has a large volume of loans that have been going on since the 90 of the last century, and some were “inherited” during the mergers and divisions of the companies.

And then miracles begin.

According to many "authoritative publications" and "experts", one of the main problems of the UAC is the "excess capacity" of the aviation industry, inherited from the USSR.

Funny is not it?

Up to 1000 units of civil aircraft were produced in the USSR, and the country fully provided for itself on short and long routes. There were no problems with the delivery of mail, freight and ambulance.

And now? And now with the plan in 45 (FORTY FIVE) aircraft, 2017 was released in 42, and 2018 civil aircraft in 35.

We don’t take yet what these airplanes were like. They were.

Greatly undermined the revenues of UAC “Superjet”, which they planned to produce (and sell, which is important) up to 70 pieces per year. However, this did not happen, and the queue did not line up for the Sukhoi Design Bureau.

We have already written more than once that some plants are idle. The Voronezh VASO was cited as an example, but things are no better at other plants. Taganrog boasts three Be-200 last year, Aviastar assembled one Tu-204 and three Il-76, and two MS-21 were built by Irkut.

There is an opinion that these plants ... DO NOT NEED!

According to Roman Gusarov, the first person of the portal, the thing is ... the damned Soviet past!

“These are all huge factories, tens of thousands of employees that need to be maintained. But the factories have nothing to produce: Soviet equipment is outdated, nobody needs it, and the new equipment is only in the process of development. And the development of aircraft needs a lot of money. Each plane is a few billion dollars. But there is really no sales. It’s not surprising that such debts have accumulated. ”

Soviet equipment is outdated ... No, it is difficult to argue with such an authoritative gentleman, but I really want to. What about the "outdated Soviet technology" in the form of the Tu-160, MiG-35, Su-35, IL-96, IL-112? This is all Soviet, as it were.

Well, about the fact that there is no new technology. But what about the Superjet? MS-21? Tu-204?

Well, they can be attributed to the loss. With the MS-21, everything is more or less clear, the aircraft is being finalized, you can grit your teeth and wait. But “Superjet” is pure super-loss.

Moreover, everything is clear, this one is not needed, in general, no one is running to buy a car. Initially, it was necessary to listen to customers who asked for a regional plane, but received ... Well, we already have a good idea of ​​what we were able to do in Sukhoi Design Bureau. Something semi-dry, and even diluted to the impossibility of imported components.

Strange, but for some reason the state continues to pour money into the Superjet. In the 2015 year, the KLA received 100 billions of rubles in the authorized capital, and this money was used to repay the loans that the KLA received under the Superjet program.

But in the end, we got a small airplane that flies in the same place as the Boeings and Airbus, but flies more expensive precisely because it is small. Accordingly, no one needs it, no matter how hard the state tries to shove it with subsidies to carriers.

It is hoped that at least with the MS-21 will not be so. If you don’t kill the plane on the engines.

So what to reform in an industry that cannot cope with two passenger aircraft, the task is very difficult.

But the KLA also has a military sector. Here the situation is not so sad, but ...

Strange things happen here too. All over the world, working for the defense industry is a dream for a production worker, and only in Russia are there huge risks and losses.

They say that the greed of the military, who allegedly do not want to buy aircraft at their market value, is to blame.

There have been articles on the network several times that told how the IRP at the plant costs 350 rubles, and on invoices, which in part, the price is already around 700. Maybe the same song with airplanes?

Strange, the KLA calls one of the causes of losses in 2018 ... a decrease in state defense orders. And then there is widespread talk about not earning anything at the GOZ.

Although inflation, devaluation, kickbacks and more can be allowed. But the whole world somehow lives, but with us ... We have something to work on for Serdyukov.

In general, I understand where the wind blows.

It is necessary to optimize the UAC. Pass it on to Rostec, bring it ... Well, put something there.

And then everything is simple. Close unprofitable plants such as VASO and Irkut, sell property, sell off for land development. To throw out the remains of specialists on the street or transport them to other cities, as in due time they tried to get Kazan and Ufa specialists from Voronezh by hook or by crook ...

And then amicably begin to gnaw not like elbows, arms to shoulders. This does not have to wait long, it will happen when the next wave of sanctions affects aircraft. Both Boeings and Airbases will be declared dual-use items.

However, perhaps I exaggerate. Perhaps Rostec will succeed in this reform, and the plants will have a future and a future. After all, were they able to promote “Russian Helicopters” and “KRET” in Rostec?

True, then Serdyukov was not at the helm ...

Unfortunately, no one has announced any plans to us yet. Moreover, it is not said whether these plans exist at all. What will be the upcoming reform, and whether it will be at all.

It is understood that the sale of equipment and plant land plus the dismissal of employees is not a reform. This is more like bankruptcy, which is set up so that banks do not suffer financial losses.

But the bankruptcy of aircraft plants cannot have a positive effect and will entail impotence and bankruptcy of the aircraft industry itself.

And it seems to us that we still need our own aircraft. And the military, and transport, and civilian, and special.
Roman Skomorokhov
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