The complex and incomprehensible future of transport aviation
What is happening today around the Russian transport aviation causes a very dual sensation. To put it mildly, a complete mess, and in everything: forecasts, numbers, statements, official communications.
This is at least a concern, because if there is such a mess in their heads, then what really happens on the ground?
Let's start with information on the creation of the Russian super-heavy military transport aircraft.
In general, the trend of recent years is cool to promise, and then quietly keep quiet about the fulfillment of their obligations. So many reports that by two thousand ... the eleventh year we will have something that will make the whole world shudder ...
And before this “eleventh” year it is still necessary to survive, perhaps no one will remember what was promised loudly there today.
And today, our Minister of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, in an interview with Interfax, says that it turns out that the Ilyushin Design Bureau is in full swing developing the Russian version of the An-124 Ruslan super-heavy aircraft, which is called the An-124-100M.
Do you understand everything? For example, not all of me. So it turns out that what he heard raises a bunch of questions.
Firstly, why does the Russian plane, which is being created at the Russian Design Bureau of Ilyushin, have not the Russian Il index, but the Ukrainian An? We have already observed the reaction of the Ukrainian side (incidentally, quite logical) with a protest in this regard.
It’s the same as calling the “Grant” the “Passat,” because of this, it won’t go like a Volkswagen.
Secondly. Is this project of An-124-100M still incomprehensible by reason, does it have anything to do with the development of the so-called STVTS (almost like PAK YES), that is, an “extra-heavy military transport aircraft”, which was intended to replace Ruslanov?
And what is the current state of development? Or development?
Since the versions lie a little on different planes, it seems that the minister does not completely own the situation.
Turn back a little along the time line.
Just a year ago, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, who is known to us as a specialist in ambiguous statements, said that even research on this topic has not yet begun. And that work on a superheavy aircraft at Ilyushin Design Bureau will begin in accordance with the state armament program after the 2025 year, that is, at the end of the GPV for the 2018-2027 years.
This, by the way, was understandable. The beginning of development at the end of one GPV in order to already plan normal financing of research and development in the new program.
And suddenly such a pitch!
In May of this year, it suddenly became known that, it turns out, research work on STVTS have already been successfully completed! Moreover, R&D has begun and is successfully moving forward and up!
And it’s okay, Borisov said this, no, all of this can be easily read on the website of BC Ilyushin. In the annual report.
Somehow it's not entirely clear, right?
June 2019 of the year. Information from Nikolai Talikov, General Designer of Design Bureau Ilyushin. Talikov says that the company is starting to create a new aircraft to replace the An-124. And he should be ready for the 2025-2026 years, as this is predetermined by the deadlines set by the Ministry of Defense.
On the one hand, the timing of this is fully consistent with the above. But in essence ...
But in fact, let's seriously think about which aircraft Talikov is talking about? About the mythical and incomprehensible An-124-100M, which, perhaps, exists only in the plans of Manturov and Borisov, or about IL-106?
I am sure that Talikov speaks of IL-106, the chief designer of which he, in fact, is.
But IL-106 is not AN-124-100! This is a completely different aircraft, which, although it is being built as part of the project to replace the Ruslan, but it is another plane!
By the way, not burdened with Ruslan’s problems, for in Ukraine it is categorically against naming the Russian aircraft by the Ukrainian name, plus here our refusal of “service” service on the Antonov’s here also means that An-124-100 in the future may get restrictions on flights over the same Europe.
But back from politics to airplanes. And then the question arises: whom to believe? And the second: so what about the plane?
It turns out that the words of Manturov and Talikov diverge at such an angle that inevitably someone is suspected of insincerity.
After all, the An-124-100 is in fact a glider from the Ukrainian Ruslan, in which it is planned to replace the engines and avionics with Russian ones. IL-106 is completely our machine. But the other. Which will not depend on unstable neighbors in terms of spare parts and accessories.
By the way, I also have doubts about the normal service from Antonov. At the same time with their losses in terms of qualified personnel.
IL-106, on which Ilyushin has been working since the beginning of the 90's, is becoming easier. And Ilyushin’s trust is an order of magnitude greater than that of Antonov. Even despite the fact that Antonov specialized in large-capacity aircraft. All this is in fact a thing of the past.
And therefore, I will not hide the fact that I do not like the option called An-124-100 much less than the Il-106.
Indeed, if you believe the numbers, the IL-106 is not inferior to the An-124 in anything, the declared parameters are about the same in terms of range and in terms of carrying capacity.
But there is a problem. Unfortunately, I very often mentioned her in historical materials, but here, and here everything is the same. No engine.
An-124 has it. D-18Т, developed in Zaporizhzhya Design Bureau "Progress". And produced there, in Zaporozhye, at the Zaporizhzhya Engineering Plant, which today is a structural unit of Motor Sich.
Unfortunately, we currently have an engine capable of providing traction in 24 000 kgf or so, like the D-18T does not.
Yes, in Samara they worked on the NK-93, which should be slightly weaker than the DT-18T, but in the tests it produced a power much higher than the declared one. In Perm, we worked on the most powerful PD-35, which was made on the basis of the PD-14, but in the end, there’s still a stop.
But the Samara engine, despite the lower rated power, had an equally important advantage over the Ukrainian engine. There is such an indicator as the bypass ratio. This is the ratio of the volume of air passing through the external circuit and creating traction to the volume of air entering the combustion chamber. The higher the bypass ratio, the higher the engine efficiency. For NK-93 it is 16,6 versus 5,6 for DT-18T.
But, apparently, we lost NK-93 as such. Somewhere in history. And from the fact that there is, alas, the rest are all inferior in power. And PS-90A (16 tons), and PD-14 (18 tons) when it is finished. Plus, the PD-14 has already lined up from Kaliningrad to Perm. Many need him. Manufacturers of MS-21, and Tu-204, and IL-276, and IL-76MD-90A, and ... IL-106 are counting on this engine.
True, there is still some kind of engine. I will quote Nikolay Talikov again:
Again a mountain of questions. What company? Where? How far have the work progressed?
There are questions, no answers. True, there are voiced deadlines. 2025 year. And that’s all.
I suspect that the “secret” engine is the PD-35. Work on it seems to be going on, and this is exactly the engine that could solve the problem of a heavy transport aircraft, it does not matter, Ana or Ila.
However, just a month ago, from the mouth of the general designer of Perm Motors, Alexander Inozemtsev, the following was heard:
And how can this be understood?
There is so far only PD-14. There is its modification PD-18P (18 tons of traction). On the basis of PD-14 they are trying to make PD-35. It is he, and not PD-14 / 18, that is suitable for Il-106, for An-124. It is this engine that they are waiting for in Ilyushin Design Bureau.
But it turns out that PD-35 can not wait? Strange ...
In Samara, in the same Kuznetsov Design Bureau, where they developed the NK-93, they seem to have begun work on an engine for PAK DA. They called this work “Product of the Russian Federation”. Since the PAK DA is planned to be subsonic, in theory the engine will fit into the PAK TA (transport aviation) program.
But how much time will pass until the NK-32 is sawed in Samara, on the basis of which a new engine is created? NK-32 is a long-mastered and familiar Tu-160 engine. Supersonic with afterburner. Rumor has it that the power of this engine will be somewhere between 18 and 30 tons. In principle, enough if everything is really in the middle, but ...
When are we planning to move on PAK YES? Right, by the end of the next GPV program. That is, after 10 years.
Will the An-124 survive? I doubt it. And the work must be completed by the 2025 year. Again, something does not converge in the testimony.
What do we have in the end?
As a result, we have several responsible persons (from the chief designer to the minister and deputy prime minister) who cannot really agree on what they are voicing.
In the future, we have two transport aircraft (An-124-100 and Il-106) that need engines. And there are engines that are not suitable for these aircraft. That is, PS-90 and PD-14. And engines that could come up if they existed in nature. This is NK-73, PD-35 and this incomprehensible new one.
But even superficially comprehending what is happening, you begin to understand that if officials of such a high rank do not have a picture of the future in their heads, then, accordingly, transport aviation is not expected in the future.
Complete confusion cannot produce a meaningful result, no matter what you say to the cameras. And alas, this is our reality today.
So, probably, you should not wait for the implementation of these strange plans regarding heavy transport aircraft for military aircraft. At least until our leaders come to a single decision about what needs to be done.
And only then do the words have a chance to become a real thing. And not before.
This is at least a concern, because if there is such a mess in their heads, then what really happens on the ground?
Let's start with information on the creation of the Russian super-heavy military transport aircraft.
In general, the trend of recent years is cool to promise, and then quietly keep quiet about the fulfillment of their obligations. So many reports that by two thousand ... the eleventh year we will have something that will make the whole world shudder ...
And before this “eleventh” year it is still necessary to survive, perhaps no one will remember what was promised loudly there today.
And today, our Minister of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, in an interview with Interfax, says that it turns out that the Ilyushin Design Bureau is in full swing developing the Russian version of the An-124 Ruslan super-heavy aircraft, which is called the An-124-100M.
Do you understand everything? For example, not all of me. So it turns out that what he heard raises a bunch of questions.
Firstly, why does the Russian plane, which is being created at the Russian Design Bureau of Ilyushin, have not the Russian Il index, but the Ukrainian An? We have already observed the reaction of the Ukrainian side (incidentally, quite logical) with a protest in this regard.
It’s the same as calling the “Grant” the “Passat,” because of this, it won’t go like a Volkswagen.
Secondly. Is this project of An-124-100M still incomprehensible by reason, does it have anything to do with the development of the so-called STVTS (almost like PAK YES), that is, an “extra-heavy military transport aircraft”, which was intended to replace Ruslanov?
And what is the current state of development? Or development?
Since the versions lie a little on different planes, it seems that the minister does not completely own the situation.
Turn back a little along the time line.
Just a year ago, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, who is known to us as a specialist in ambiguous statements, said that even research on this topic has not yet begun. And that work on a superheavy aircraft at Ilyushin Design Bureau will begin in accordance with the state armament program after the 2025 year, that is, at the end of the GPV for the 2018-2027 years.
This, by the way, was understandable. The beginning of development at the end of one GPV in order to already plan normal financing of research and development in the new program.
And suddenly such a pitch!
In May of this year, it suddenly became known that, it turns out, research work on STVTS have already been successfully completed! Moreover, R&D has begun and is successfully moving forward and up!
And it’s okay, Borisov said this, no, all of this can be easily read on the website of BC Ilyushin. In the annual report.
“As part of the development work on the creation of STVTS, the pre-contract work phase has been completed, a state contract has been concluded for the implementation of the 3-5 stages of the development work of STVTS.
Somehow it's not entirely clear, right?
June 2019 of the year. Information from Nikolai Talikov, General Designer of Design Bureau Ilyushin. Talikov says that the company is starting to create a new aircraft to replace the An-124. And he should be ready for the 2025-2026 years, as this is predetermined by the deadlines set by the Ministry of Defense.
On the one hand, the timing of this is fully consistent with the above. But in essence ...
But in fact, let's seriously think about which aircraft Talikov is talking about? About the mythical and incomprehensible An-124-100M, which, perhaps, exists only in the plans of Manturov and Borisov, or about IL-106?
I am sure that Talikov speaks of IL-106, the chief designer of which he, in fact, is.
But IL-106 is not AN-124-100! This is a completely different aircraft, which, although it is being built as part of the project to replace the Ruslan, but it is another plane!
By the way, not burdened with Ruslan’s problems, for in Ukraine it is categorically against naming the Russian aircraft by the Ukrainian name, plus here our refusal of “service” service on the Antonov’s here also means that An-124-100 in the future may get restrictions on flights over the same Europe.
But back from politics to airplanes. And then the question arises: whom to believe? And the second: so what about the plane?
It turns out that the words of Manturov and Talikov diverge at such an angle that inevitably someone is suspected of insincerity.
After all, the An-124-100 is in fact a glider from the Ukrainian Ruslan, in which it is planned to replace the engines and avionics with Russian ones. IL-106 is completely our machine. But the other. Which will not depend on unstable neighbors in terms of spare parts and accessories.
By the way, I also have doubts about the normal service from Antonov. At the same time with their losses in terms of qualified personnel.
IL-106, on which Ilyushin has been working since the beginning of the 90's, is becoming easier. And Ilyushin’s trust is an order of magnitude greater than that of Antonov. Even despite the fact that Antonov specialized in large-capacity aircraft. All this is in fact a thing of the past.
And therefore, I will not hide the fact that I do not like the option called An-124-100 much less than the Il-106.
Indeed, if you believe the numbers, the IL-106 is not inferior to the An-124 in anything, the declared parameters are about the same in terms of range and in terms of carrying capacity.
But there is a problem. Unfortunately, I very often mentioned her in historical materials, but here, and here everything is the same. No engine.
An-124 has it. D-18Т, developed in Zaporizhzhya Design Bureau "Progress". And produced there, in Zaporozhye, at the Zaporizhzhya Engineering Plant, which today is a structural unit of Motor Sich.
Unfortunately, we currently have an engine capable of providing traction in 24 000 kgf or so, like the D-18T does not.
Yes, in Samara they worked on the NK-93, which should be slightly weaker than the DT-18T, but in the tests it produced a power much higher than the declared one. In Perm, we worked on the most powerful PD-35, which was made on the basis of the PD-14, but in the end, there’s still a stop.
But the Samara engine, despite the lower rated power, had an equally important advantage over the Ukrainian engine. There is such an indicator as the bypass ratio. This is the ratio of the volume of air passing through the external circuit and creating traction to the volume of air entering the combustion chamber. The higher the bypass ratio, the higher the engine efficiency. For NK-93 it is 16,6 versus 5,6 for DT-18T.
But, apparently, we lost NK-93 as such. Somewhere in history. And from the fact that there is, alas, the rest are all inferior in power. And PS-90A (16 tons), and PD-14 (18 tons) when it is finished. Plus, the PD-14 has already lined up from Kaliningrad to Perm. Many need him. Manufacturers of MS-21, and Tu-204, and IL-276, and IL-76MD-90A, and ... IL-106 are counting on this engine.
True, there is still some kind of engine. I will quote Nikolay Talikov again:
“To date, the United Engine Corporation has also begun work on our aircraft (IL-106. - Approx. Aut.) And is creating engines with thrust of 24-26 tons.”
Again a mountain of questions. What company? Where? How far have the work progressed?
There are questions, no answers. True, there are voiced deadlines. 2025 year. And that’s all.
I suspect that the “secret” engine is the PD-35. Work on it seems to be going on, and this is exactly the engine that could solve the problem of a heavy transport aircraft, it does not matter, Ana or Ila.
However, just a month ago, from the mouth of the general designer of Perm Motors, Alexander Inozemtsev, the following was heard:
“An An-124 Ruslan heavy transport aircraft may receive a domestic engine in the future. It will not be a PD-35, another engine, but from this family. ”
And how can this be understood?
There is so far only PD-14. There is its modification PD-18P (18 tons of traction). On the basis of PD-14 they are trying to make PD-35. It is he, and not PD-14 / 18, that is suitable for Il-106, for An-124. It is this engine that they are waiting for in Ilyushin Design Bureau.
But it turns out that PD-35 can not wait? Strange ...
In Samara, in the same Kuznetsov Design Bureau, where they developed the NK-93, they seem to have begun work on an engine for PAK DA. They called this work “Product of the Russian Federation”. Since the PAK DA is planned to be subsonic, in theory the engine will fit into the PAK TA (transport aviation) program.
But how much time will pass until the NK-32 is sawed in Samara, on the basis of which a new engine is created? NK-32 is a long-mastered and familiar Tu-160 engine. Supersonic with afterburner. Rumor has it that the power of this engine will be somewhere between 18 and 30 tons. In principle, enough if everything is really in the middle, but ...
When are we planning to move on PAK YES? Right, by the end of the next GPV program. That is, after 10 years.
Will the An-124 survive? I doubt it. And the work must be completed by the 2025 year. Again, something does not converge in the testimony.
What do we have in the end?
As a result, we have several responsible persons (from the chief designer to the minister and deputy prime minister) who cannot really agree on what they are voicing.
In the future, we have two transport aircraft (An-124-100 and Il-106) that need engines. And there are engines that are not suitable for these aircraft. That is, PS-90 and PD-14. And engines that could come up if they existed in nature. This is NK-73, PD-35 and this incomprehensible new one.
But even superficially comprehending what is happening, you begin to understand that if officials of such a high rank do not have a picture of the future in their heads, then, accordingly, transport aviation is not expected in the future.
Complete confusion cannot produce a meaningful result, no matter what you say to the cameras. And alas, this is our reality today.
So, probably, you should not wait for the implementation of these strange plans regarding heavy transport aircraft for military aircraft. At least until our leaders come to a single decision about what needs to be done.
And only then do the words have a chance to become a real thing. And not before.
Information