Will Russia have enough oil products in the event of a major war?

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In discussion the previous article about the pyrolysis plant "ECUOT" by Sergey Lavrov some opponents, like a chorus, repeated: "There are good reserves of fuel." This topic seemed interesting to me, there is where to apply my military-economic knowledge, and therefore I decided to write something like a short report on how long our reserves of oil products will last in the event of a major war.

Cash reserves


I began my research by finding out what the volume of oil storage facilities in Russia is. I could not get the exact data, but from the published information it follows that in Russia there are oil storage facilities of all types with a total volume of 100 million cubic meters. These data refer to the mid-2000s, but the capacity is probably about this level: new oil storage facilities were built and old ones that were already unusable were dismantled.




Large oil storage in Perm region


These are mainly oil storage facilities that are part of the structure of oil pipelines, large refineries, ports and loading terminals. Oil product storage accounts for 22,5 million cubic meters (data for 2011) of this volume. To convert the volume to weight, a density coefficient of 0,8 is taken, since here all oil products are combined, both lighter gasoline and heavier diesel fuel. So, 22,5 million cubic meters is 18 million tons of oil products.

It is interesting that we managed to find information about oil storage facilities in the army. In an article by retired Major General G. M. Shirshov in the “Military-historical "The magazine" indicates that the army has its own oil depots with a capacity of 5,4 million cubic meters and military warehouses with a capacity of 3,6 million cubic meters, together - 10 million cubic meters or 8 million tons of oil products. This data is from 2011 or a little earlier, and it can be assumed that now the army has approximately the same fuel depots.


Fuel and lubricants army warehouses are not as grandiose as civilian ones.


As far as one can assume, civilian oil depots and military ones are accounted for separately. If this is the case, then Russia as a whole has oil product storage facilities for 32,5 million cubic meters or 26 million tons.

In addition, there are about 15 thousand more filling stations in Russia. They are very different in their capacity, but if we take their average volume of 50 cubic meters, then they will contain 750 thousand cubic meters or 600 thousand tons of oil products. There is also a kind of stock on wheels, that is, railway tanks loaded with oil and oil products. According to data for 2018, Russian Railways, on average, shipped 763 thousand tons of oil and oil products per day, the turnover of tanks was 9 days, so at any moment about 6,8 million tons of oil and oil products are in tanks on the railways.


Bulk train at the station. At every moment on the railways there are approximately 145 of thousands of tanks loaded with oil and oil products.


And one moment. A significant amount of oil is found in oil pipelines. With an operational length of 71 thousand km, their volume is 109,2 million cubic meters or approximately 96 million tons of oil (the average density of Urals oil is 0,88). This oil will remain inside the pipelines even if they are damaged, and if necessary, it can be partially pumped out and used.
So let's put it all together. For an hour, "H" is in the mined state (million cubic meters / million tons):

Oil Storage - 100 / 80
including oil products - 22,5 / 18
Oil pipelines - 109,2 / 96
Railway tanks - 8,5 / 6,8
Gas Station - 0,75 / 0,6
Army Warehouses - 10 / 8
Total - 228,45 / 191,4

Of this amount of oil and oil products, about 158 ​​million tons are oil, which with simple processing will give about 79 million tons of oil products, and with cracking - about 110 million tons of oil products. Thus, available for an hour "H", that is, the beginning of the war, the reserve for oil products can be estimated at 33,6 million tons of finished oil products ready for use (assume that all containers are filled), and 79-110 million tons , which can be produced from the oil already produced and in the tanks and oil pipelines.

Peace Consumption


Now consumption. Without estimates of consumption, it is generally impossible to judge whether the reserves are large or small. If there is no data on consumption, then any figures for reserves are fiction, no matter how huge and impressive they may seem. The true picture is given only by comparing stocks with consumption and the calculated period of their expenditure.

In general, our statistics on the consumption of petroleum products is extremely unreliable and official data greatly underestimate the volume of consumption. So, when comparing statistics for the Novgorod region with data obtained from surveys of industrial consumers and gas stations, they showed more than a twofold discrepancy. Statistics gave 64 thousand tons, and polls - 136 thousand tons.
But nevertheless, since this question was of interest to many, pretty good estimates were made. According to the fuel balance of the Center for the Efficient Use of Energy (CENEF) for 2010, we have the following peacetime consumption (in million tons):

Industry - 6,4
Railways - 3,1
Cars - 83,5
Other transport - 10,2
Agriculture - 3,5
Non-Energy Goals - 23,1
Total - 131,6

This structure of final consumption also includes the consumption of oil products in the army, which, according to Deputy Defense Minister, General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov, amounted to 2 million tons.

Now the consumption of petroleum products has grown due to the growing motorization. In 2010, there were 32,6 million cars in Russia, and in 2018 - 51,8 million.If, as can be judged from the data for 2010, each million cars consumed 2,5 million tons of fuel per year, now consumption by road transport should be about 129,5 million tons. Taking into account this amendment, the consumption of petroleum products in 2018 should have amounted to 177,6 million tons.

So, even in peacetime, our daily consumption of petroleum products is 486 thousand tons, and the available stocks of finished petroleum products are enough for 38 days, or for five weeks, and the stock in all gas stations in the country will be enough for cars for two days. Fuel consumption is ensured through constant oil production, transportation, processing, and constant supply of oil products to consumers. The stock of finished petroleum products plays a purely auxiliary role in balancing production and transportation, on the one hand, and consumption, on the other. It takes about three days from the receipt of oil to the refinery to the delivery of gasoline or diesel fuel to the filling station, so intermediate stocks of oil products at wholesale oil depots are necessary.

Supplies - for a week of war


In the conditions of a major war, in which the enemy will try to do everything missile knock out power generation and oil refining with strikes, the situation will, of course, change radically. Although it is quite difficult to make precise estimates, both due to the obvious lack of data and the difficulty of making a specific assessment of possible damage, we will nevertheless try to estimate what will happen.

I proceed from the worst-case scenario that the enemy managed to disable all 34 large refineries in Russia for a long time. This can be achieved with high precision weapons, and nuclear strikes. High-precision missiles can destroy or severely damage the main distillation columns of factories, after which the plant will not be able to process oil until they are restored or replaced (which is very difficult; a large column is a piece product, its production and installation take a long time). A nuclear strike turns the refinery into a fire and a pile of scrap metal.

Will Russia have enough oil products in the event of a major war?

Oil refineries already burn quite well, even without missiles and nuclear explosions. The photo shows the fire of a tar visbreaking unit at the Saratov Oil Refinery in October 2012, after which the plant did not work for four days, and the installation, which was not the most important, was excluded from the production cycle. The cause of the fire is a malfunction of the drain valve.


There are 34 large refineries in Russia with a total capacity of 284,1 million tons and another 80 mini-refineries with a total capacity of 11,3 million tons. After a massive missile attack, most likely, we will only have the latter, which can produce about 6,7 million tons of oil products per year (with a processing depth of 60%). And there will still be a stock of finished petroleum products of about 33,6 million tons at the start of the war. When consumed at peacetime level, this is a 70 day supply. During this time, mini-refineries will produce about 1,2 million tons of oil products, which increases the stock by another two days of consumption. Frankly, very sparsely.

Wartime consumption should also change dramatically in the direction of reducing insignificant fuel consumption. What can be shortened?
The industry cannot be touched - it is ore and raw materials, without which military production is impossible. Non-energy needs for petroleum products, that is, when they are used in production, also remain. The railways must not be touched either. The current consumption of the railways is 2,5 million tons, but due to the fact that the enemy will also hit the electric power industry, the railways will have to switch from electric traction (86% of the total energy consumption) to diesel and they will put all diesel locomotives on the run. they only exist.


Diesel traction. Quite often used in oil transportation.


I think that 4 million tons is for the railways. Agriculture must also have fuel - one cannot fight without bread.
That is, road transport, which consumes the most, falls under the reduction. But you can't cut all of it either. It is involved in the transportation and distribution of food and products to the population, and without these transportation, the people will simply starve to death. In the structure of automobile consumption, about 35% is accounted for by diesel fuel, that is, mainly trucks. They will use 45,3 million tons per year.

A significant part of the cargo will be transferred from the railways, which have lost their electricity, to cars. How much is difficult to say. According to my calculations, in order to carry out transportation by cars in the amount of 2393 billion ton-kilometers (this is the share of transportation currently accounted for by electric traction), 34,7 million tons would be required. But export and transit rail cargo will disappear, and domestic traffic accounted for about 40% of the total cargo turnover. 14% is its own diesel traction, and cars can carry another 26% of the turnover. This would require another 10,5 million tons of fuel.

Now for more complex calculations. How much will the army spend in combat conditions? Of course, more than 2 million tons, since combat training is still not a war. But how much exactly? Apparently, we do not have exact calculations. But this can be assessed indirectly, through the consumption of fuel and lubricants of the 40th Army in Afghanistan, which was waging a war. The motorization of the 40th Army was generally about the same as that of the current Russian army. In total, the 110-strong Soviet contingent consumed 10 million tons of fuels and lubricants over the 4 years of the war, that is, about 400 thousand tons per year (the daily supply ranged from 700 to 1500 tons, as follows from the data on the 276th pipeline brigade, in average about 1000 tons per day).

Thus, if we assume that a 100-strong group with all the military and automotive equipment it needs spends 400 tons per year of wars, we can roughly estimate that an army of a million people with the required equipment will consume 4 million tons. And what will be the size of the army in a big war? In my opinion, in order to fight NATO forces and have a chance of military success, it is necessary to recruit an army of about 4 million people. Total - 16 million tons of oil products consumption by the army.

The government has 50 thousand cars, which, with an average annual consumption of 2,5 tons of fuel per car, gives 125 thousand tons of fuel per year. Finally, some personal vehicles can also remain in use with some fuel consumption. If we assume that only 10% of private cars will receive gasoline, then this is another 8,4 million tons of fuel per year. Other transport, that is, planes and ships, will also use up something, but we can assume that in the amount of about 1 million tons. And another 2 million tons must be delivered to the northern delivery, so that the regions of the Far North do not die out from hunger and cold.

You don't seem to have forgotten anything? Then let us bring together all the consumption of wartime after the mobilization (in million tons):

Industry - 6,4
Railways - 4
Agriculture - 3,5
Non-Energy Goals - 23,1
Trucks - 45,3
Railway cargo by road transport - 10,5
Army - 16
Power - 0,12
Personal vehicles - 8,4
Other transport - 1
Northern delivery - 2
Total - 120,32

And in wartime it turns out pretty well. This is an interesting feature of the military economy, that the army consumes relatively little fuel, and its main consumption occurs in the civilian sector. Even if we reduce something else, the total annual consumption of petroleum products in wartime is unlikely to be reduced by less than 90 million tons. Let's consider it like this. With a level of 120 million tons, daily consumption will be 329 thousand tons, and with a level of 90 million tons - 246 thousand tons.

And one more amendment needed to assess the situation at the start of the war. Since you cannot create a mobilization army of 4 million people in a few days, we will have an available army of about a million people with a consumption of 4 million tons or 10,9 thousand tons per day. The military stock is 8 million tons. The civilian sector without the military, according to the above wartime consumption, consumes 285 thousand tons per day.

So, the military their reserves of fuel and lubricants with an army of one million people will be enough for two years. But do not rush to rejoice. The civilian sector, even if its consumption is reorganized according to the structure of wartime consumption, will exhaust its available reserves of 25,6 million tons in just 9 days. This is without taking into account the inevitable mess, confusion, abuse and embezzlement at the beginning of a war, so to speak, in an exemplary manner. The remaining factories will produce about 165 thousand tons of oil products in nine days, which, if it prolongs the agony, will not be long.

Hence the conclusion: if the enemy brings us large refineries, then Russia will hold out for only a week, and then there will be an economic collapse and defeat due to the complete depletion of the remaining reserves of oil products. An army can try to fight and even defeat someone, but it cannot wage a war with a completely disorganized rear, left with dry tanks.

What is the minimum refining capacity at which Russia can stand on its feet and be able to wage a long war? Based on the above figures, it is not difficult to calculate. With 70% oil refining - 128,5 million tons, with simple processing (distillation without cracking, which yields about 50% of motor fuel from our oil grades) - 180 million tons. These powers must be dispersed and reliably protected from missile attacks. We do not have such military mobilization capacities. Mini-refineries, which can be considered relatively protected, account for only 6% of the required volume.

Even if they were, they would not have enough oil. Production in the European part of Russia, that is, in that part of the country from where oil can be somehow delivered for processing, and then oil products can be delivered to consumers (oil from Western and Eastern Siberia will largely disappear due to the huge distance and transportation difficulties in case of damaged oil pipelines ), is 88,2 million tons per year (44 million tons of oil products with simple processing), of which 71 million tons are in the Volga region (Tatarstan, Bashkiria and the Astrakhan region). And the enemy can capture this region with an offensive from the territory of Ukraine.

In general, we lost the world war, whatever one may say. And "good fuel supplies", which some people see, will not help us in any way. For a big war, and for the stability of the economy from any military attack, a radical restructuring of the entire economy of the country, especially the fuel one, is required.
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  1. +5
    3 September 2019 05: 31
    "And" good fuel supplies ", which some seem to see, will not help us in any way.", They never had any state, and by and large, and never will, if you study the history of World War II, they tried to capture and destroy fuel resources. Any hostilities, first of all, are logistics, so that everything is booted.
    1. +7
      3 September 2019 06: 26
      the author lives in past wars ...
      1. 0
        3 September 2019 12: 19
        Quote: Aerodrome
        the author lives in past wars ...

        That's right.
        Will Russia have enough oil products in the event of a major war?

        For a threatened period and a couple of hours of global conflict, that's enough for sure. Then there will be no one and no reason to refuel.
      2. -9
        3 September 2019 21: 53
        No, he is Dmitry Verkh Turov, imagines himself a strategist. He, you see, did not find the data ...
        In a word, a talker is a godsend for a spy ....
    2. +6
      3 September 2019 08: 04
      Will Russia have enough oil products in the event of a major war?

      Just a few questions:
      1. What is the point of continuing and most importantly by whom, after an exchange of nuclear missiles? In order to capture more infected territory? Ditch the remnants of a surviving army?
      2. What is the point in a war between capitalist countries? This is the same meaningless 1 world work. How it will end, and so it is clear, even with the use of nuclear weapons even without.
      3. Does anyone else believe that it is possible to drive propaganda about "we will tighten our belts, we rally so long as there is no war"?
      1. -4
        3 September 2019 10: 47
        In general, we lost the World War, whatever one may say.

        Take a shovel, swarm a grave and lie down. laughing
        1. 0
          3 September 2019 11: 01
          After the words that the author could not find the exact data, which is not surprising, you can not read further. And let's compare the fuel reserves of Europe, for how many days they have enough fuel ...
        2. 0
          3 September 2019 11: 03
          You just need to wrap yourself in a white sheet and slowly crawl towards the cemetery.
          Why is it slow? So rushing is already pointless ...
      2. +5
        3 September 2019 11: 37
        Quote: Civil
        What is the point of continuing and most importantly by whom, after an exchange of nuclear missiles?

        It makes sense to finish off the enemy and make sense to survive so that you are not finished off.
        Quote: Civil
        2. What is the point in a war between capitalist countries? This is the same meaningless 1 world work. How it will end, and so it is clear, even with the use of nuclear weapons even without.

        Countries are fighting, regardless of whether they are capitalist, socialist, Christian, Muslim, or some other. It makes no sense to look for meaning in everything. What is the point in the rain or in the sun? World war can begin with the murder of the next archduke or from some local conflict.
        Quote: Civil
        Does anyone else believe that it is possible to drive propaganda about "we will tighten our belts, we will rally so long as there is no war"?

        I would not want to tighten our belts, but in fact the army is the guarantee of our peaceful future.
      3. +1
        3 September 2019 21: 53
        Quote: Civil
        Just a few questions:

        there is an opinion that the exchange of nuclear strikes will not destroy the earth but only make some areas unsuitable.
        Quote: Civil
        What is the point in a war between capitalist countries?
        Russia is also capitalist - the question is incorrect. And wars always started because of resources, and social systems were the same and gods. Although the formal occasions were different.
        Quote: Civil
        3. Does anyone else believe that it is possible to drive propaganda about "we will tighten our belts, we rally so long as there is no war"?

        I don’t believe, I know what will happen ... Maybe a little wrong, but like that - just to survive somehow request
  2. +4
    3 September 2019 05: 35
    and with whom is it a big war? The authorities are at war with the people, it’s safer and more profitable.
    1. -10
      3 September 2019 14: 08
      With whom? With high-moaning whiners, for example. Minus
  3. 21+
    3 September 2019 05: 44
    Fortune telling on coffee grounds of clear water.
    In general, we lost the World War, whatever one may say.
    then Russia will last only a week,
    And what, Russia this week will just drive the engines idling and spend fuel? will not answer with their nuclear battons and high-precision missiles? Europe will not block gas - but what is the dependence of Western energy on the gas component there? The United States generally has three large energy zones, to which almost the entire country is closed. They are quite easy to disable by the core nucleotons.
    Somehow, the author does not take into account that not only Russia will be bloodless in the first week of the global war, but also the enemy, so the question of defeat at the end of the week is clearly not worth it.
    And then - with sticks and stones.
    1. +1
      3 September 2019 08: 53
      Quote: Dalny V
      Fortune telling on coffee grounds of clear water.

      Why fortunetelling? The author quite extensively and thoroughly outlined the prospects of fuel hunger ... Yes
      stop You, I see, do not agree, as do those who do not live in past wars, but who knows absolutely all the possible scenarios of a modern war ... fellow
      May I ask you, analysts of the Ministry of Defense and the Government of the Russian Federation, several questions?
      Tell me, how, in the conditions of a liberal market economy, the authorities of the Russian Federation with the available legislative, power, administrative levers fought against "suddenly out of nowhere" the rise in prices for fuels and lubricants? The answer is correct ... fellow
      Another question. Are you sure that there will be a retaliatory strike? It is in those countries where the Russian crooks focused their housing on leaving, where it added children, relatives and designated a personal business (who has a hotel, who built a candle factory) ... request
      And try to remember, if you were in your adult years, how long did it take in a peaceful HMS time to reduce a normally developed economy to eternal queues for vodka and food stamps? belay
      But apart from fuels and lubricants, the absence (or skyrocketing prices) of which the owners of personal cars will immediately shout, there is food security tied to it ... Or have you forgotten?

      It is followed by energy, water supply and heat supply, which is "not so relevant" for our latitudes ...
      Believe me, the heat from the stove was practiced during the years of my service in connection with interruptions in the power supply ...
      Before writing about fortune-telling, strain your imagination and analyze all the consequences of the disappearance of "something" in the modern Russian Federation. We'll get stuck in garbage heaps and snowdrifts. We will extract water from the snow or run to the spring ...
      You try to explain to me why you exclude the grave consequences for the country during the war, when in peacetime there is:

      I realized that the fate of those 20 000 000 Russians living below the poverty line you decided? It is in the context of the projected economic collapse ... Or do you believe in patronage and good sponsors?
      hi
      1. +3
        3 September 2019 23: 42
        Something you gouged me to smithereens))) For some reason they dragged the HMS, which I hate to endure (but I wish many years of life, to personally see how he will be condemned and pulled up on a post, otherwise the EBN and the guydarushka punishment escaped ) They were attracted to something that I had decided the fate of the Russians living below the poverty line (although I am for a return to socialism). The economic problems of today's Russia have been drawn to something (which I’m not even going to argue with).
        But I just wrote that the author does not take into account the main factor - Russia's retaliatory strike in the event of a global conflict - but it describes the global conflict. All. I wrote what I wrote, not what you managed to read.
        1. 0
          4 September 2019 00: 20
          Why not take into account? Even as I take into account. Even wrote an article about it
          https://topwar.ru/158575-psihologija-otvetki.html
          Belief in "otvetka" is spiritual desertion.
          1. 0
            4 September 2019 00: 38
            Belief in "otvetka" is spiritual desertion.
            What is it like? A beautiful phrase construction does not add meaning to it, but there is no meaning in your phrase. The answer in the event of a global war is not faith, it is a fact. As a fact, if a person sleeps naked in the snow, he will freeze himself a causal place. The answer will be required. Another question is how complete and effective will it be? But this is a matter of faith.
            1. +2
              4 September 2019 00: 46
              And so. It is Putin who will come, press the button, the enemies will be thrown into dust, and nothing will be required of me. Such a view is precisely what spiritual desertion. And anyone who clicks on the "answer" - just like that.

              Of course, I also considered this issue and came to the conclusion that the Americans, not without problems, of course, but survive. On their side are factors such as a powerful merchant fleet and industry owned by American corporations in countries that will not be hit in any weather.
              1. 0
                4 September 2019 01: 08
                You do not ascribe me to putinoids, please. Where Putin will come and what buttons he will press on is his intimate affair. In general, the army gives the answer, and the president (08.08.08 is a great example) may not know anything at this time and reap, say, a flush button on the toilet. Or maybe the answer is not the army, but, let’s say, the people (guerrillas rule), although this will not be the most effective answer. So, I repeat: the answer will be - a fact. But how effective it will be is just a matter of faith. Someone believes that Putin will come and press the drain button, someone - that the partisans will launch a couple of Boeings into the statue of liberty. Therefore, you are building an article on a spherical horse in a vacuum: the enemy causes damage to the country with constant intensity, but the country does not damage the enemy, does not, and does not affect the intensity of the damage. But this can never be, therefore, such reasoning is fortune-telling on coffee grounds. For sim - bye, I went to work.
                1. +1
                  4 September 2019 02: 08
                  Putin is the commander in chief and it is he who orders the start of hostilities. Any. And on 8 of August he also gave the order that you would not think to yourself there. An army without the order of the commander-in-chief has no right to begin military operations.

                  Well, yes, in such a cozy little world, it should be good. Someone will do something, not me.
                  But for my taste it’s not so interesting.
                  1. 0
                    4 September 2019 02: 29
                    On 08.08.08 Medvedev was the president and commander-in-chief. But I admit that some order was given by Putin))) Only in this case it turns out that you live in a "cozy" world. Continue in the same spirit. All the best hi
                    1. +1
                      4 September 2019 02: 43
                      Yes please! laughing
                      I think Medvedev consulted with Putin before giving the order. In any case, to think, like my opponent, that the army will give the "answer", and the president-commander-in-chief (Putin or whoever will be there instead of him) will be out of business - sheer stupidity.
                      1. 0
                        4 September 2019 02: 57
                        Where did you see me think so? Do not ascribe to me your thoughts. Once again - I wrote what I wrote, not what you read.
                        All the best
                      2. +1
                        4 September 2019 03: 02
                        In general, the army gives the answer, and the president (08.08.08 is a great example) can at this time not know anything and reap, for example, the drain button on the toilet. Or maybe the answer is not the army, but, let’s say, the people (guerrillas rule), although this will not be the most effective answer.


                        The selection is mine.
                        In my opinion, a very talking phrase.
                      3. +1
                        4 September 2019 03: 21
                        Forgive me, but you yourself argued that "to believe that Putin will press a button is spiritual desertion." And now you reproach me for saying that "in any case, the answer is given by the army, not the president." You will decide who gives the answer, otherwise I am not able to understand your duality of thinking. In general, I can hardly imagine how the president in one person gives an answer to some foe. Army - yes, people - yes. The president at this moment can lie drunk in sisyandra, or carry out obviously treacherous acts, or even move his mind. In the event of a global attack, the military must take responsibility. But the effectiveness of a hypothetical response is a matter of faith. Please read the entire thread again, more carefully. And stop dragging me into the cycle of your wordplay, where you contradict yourself with your newly invented spiritual desertion. Don't bother with an answer, it's not interesting.
  4. +4
    3 September 2019 05: 46
    There is still such an absolutely closed source in our country - the State Reserve.
    How many millions tons are stored there is a state secret.
    Even the locations are just as mysterious.
    But every year or two the reserve is updated.
    Fuel from storage is sent for sale to the gas station network, and refineries are sent fresh there.
    I think 15-20 million tons will be typed.
    Plus terminals like Sheskharis in Novorossiysk.
    The village of Pear beam (entry from the side of the station Neberdzhaevskaya on the highway Krasnodar-Novorossiysk.
    Several million tons of oil are concentrated in the mountains.
    Terminals in Tuapse. Temryuke.
    River terminals on large rivers (Volga, Don, Kama, Belaya, Moskva River, Neva, Northern Dvina).
    Here, too, several million tons of storage will be typed.
    Enough for another two weeks.
    And there is Victory. hi
    1. AUL
      11+
      3 September 2019 06: 48
      I think at one o'clock one of the priority goals for nuclear strikes will be precisely our energy system. There is no industry without energy, and you won’t get much on pre-war reserves! Oil storage facilities, oil refineries, oil fields, terminals, fuel pipe systems, and other transportation routes will be bombed in the first place, along with missile silos and airfields. And from the reserves given here there will be little. After all, the deployment of all these objects to the adversary is well known, including the State Reserve's storage facilities - you can’t hide the construction of such objects in the sleeve. And from what remains, fuel still needs to be managed to be taken and delivered to its destination - this is in conditions of a nuclear strike, strains with transport, His Majesty the General Bardak and the inevitable rampant of criminality (after all, fuel will become currency!).
      The only consolation is that the adversary will not be better.
      Quote: demo
      Enough for another two weeks.
      And there is Victory.

      But there will be no victory. No one. The whole planet, all of humanity will be the loser. Alas...
      1. 0
        3 September 2019 09: 39
        The victory will be in bacteria, viruses, inhabitants of the deep sea.
        And the territories are not populated by people, but simply animals.
        What will happen next, God alone knows.
        But the fact that liquid fuel will not be required for transport for a long time is a fact.
    2. -1
      3 September 2019 08: 35
      The author's calculations also seem strange to me, of course, like every law-abiding citizen, I do not know in a dream how much is stored in secret state reserves, but the author referred to those reserves that are so openly and everyone knows are in plain sight like those the same refinery. Why is the enemy so powerful, because in one blow, in spite of all our air defenses, he crashed all the refineries, and so merciless, did not cover all these storage facilities with the same blow? Or did they at the moment of impact become something like a "sacred cow"?
    3. 0
      3 September 2019 09: 08
      Quote: demo
      There is still such an absolutely closed source in our country - the State Reserve.

      That's right! fellow What other state reserves !!! fellow
      Will you enlighten us on the "gold of the party"? belay You will not tell why you "jumped out of the window" (did not fall off the bridge and did not slip on a banana peel while standing on a stool with a noose around his neck) Kruchina Nikolai Efimovich - the business manager of the Central Committee of the CPSU?
      Do you know for sure that his example will not follow, for example, Ms. Nabiullina or some other minister of any state reserves?
      Quote: demo
      Here, too, several million tons of storage will be typed.
      Enough for another two weeks.
      And there is Victory. hi

      I am sure that everything will be as you told us ...
      "This noble work habit
      It’s not bad for us to adopt with you ...
      Bless the work of the people
      And learn to respect a man.

      Do not be shy for the kindly fatherland ...
      I brought enough Russian people,
      Carried out this railroad -
      He will bear everything that the Lord sends!

      It will endure everything - and broad, clear
      Breast pave the way for himself.
      It is a pity only - to live in this wonderful time
      I don’t have to - neither to me, nor to you.
      "

      We should decide which way those 170 000 dollar millionaires will go, swim and fly ... belay And there we are behind them - stunt-stunt-stunt ... stunt-stunt-stunt ... On sleds and scooters ... wassat
      1. +6
        3 September 2019 09: 47
        If it pleases you, then neither ours nor foreign dollar millionaires will fly anywhere.
        Only to hell with horns.
        The first missile, the first bomb, the first salvo (at least Kalibrov, even Tomagavkov) and all civil aviation are rapidly landing and not flying.
        Passengers hand over tickets (a joke) and wandered wanderingly to their home (from whom he stayed).
        And then the railway transport stops, then the automobile, then everything stops.
        What did not die on impact.
        And the estates of dollar millionaires are being stormed by the brutal fellow citizens.
        They kill and slaughter everyone they find.
        Especially goes to the owners of Bentley and Ferrari.
        They are simply burned alive in their expensive cars.
        And no one, I stress, no one can escape.
        If only kayaking and canoeing.
        Only from that shore also run in our direction.
        This is the encouraging beginning of our beautiful day.
        1. -5
          3 September 2019 14: 14
          I am simply amazed at the presence of such characters. Indeed, to whom is war, and to whom is dear mother. The author in the article (although controversial) touched on the topic of a serious war, and these people already have a mouthful of saliva and uncontrollable dreams of looting.
          1. +2
            3 September 2019 16: 58
            Are you in my address?
            Am I going to loot something?
            If something is not clear to you, or you have a specific understanding of what is written, then this should not be advertised.
            1. The comment was deleted.
              1. The comment was deleted.
          2. 0
            4 September 2019 00: 51
            "and these already have a mouthful of saliva and uncontrollable dreams of looting."
            Thoughts and actions about looting, with the disappearance of tools, the authorities will very quickly visit everyone, one on the other from the looting line! ...
    4. +2
      17 September 2019 22: 42
      Quote: demo
      Enough for another two weeks.
      And there is Victory

      so in the first world reasoned.
  5. +3
    3 September 2019 05: 50
    I don't understand why these calculations... there won't be a war of this scale. It simply can't happen in the times of nuclear weapons. If they blow up our storage facilities, will we mobilize at that moment or should we still respond? It's a conceptual error to count these reserves and the consumption while forgetting that the enemy will suffer exactly the same losses, if not worse. All their pipelines will be destroyed and their logistics will be killed instantly in the first retaliatory strike. Or a preventive strike, depending on how it goes. All ports and communications will be destroyed. Do you think the war will drag on for years after that? Seriously?
    1. +2
      3 September 2019 09: 14
      Quote: carstorm 11
      I do not understand why these calculations ... a war of this magnitude will not be. it simply cannot be in times of nuclear weapons.

      I just remembered ... So life ordered that he knew by heart:
      Unbreakable Alliance republics of free
      Rallied forever Great Russia
      Long live the people's will
      A single, mighty Soviet Union!

      And you know? Indeed, until recently, no one believed - and they said that this:
      Quote: carstorm 11
      ... simply cannot be in times of nuclear weapons.

      And the results of the popular expression of the same spoke ... request Where did that go? Probably the pale moth "pochikal" ...
    2. +3
      3 September 2019 18: 55
      exactly the same losses will be suffered by opponents

      If we compare the US and NATO armies with our army, compare their economies and ours, then even the last cat will realize that they will cause us more damage than we do to them. And it turns out that just that they have a chance of winning, and our chances are zero. Even if we answer them all that we have, they will still survive some of the industry and they will be able to continue the war. And we can only fight actively for a week, the author is right.
      Of course such articles do not like the patriots, of course they are outraged, but this is true, bitter, but true.
  6. +2
    3 September 2019 05: 55
    In the case of the war that you described, they will build quickly new refineries, and during the waiting period they use mini refineries.
    You can buy a mini refinery in Taganrog yourself and produce fuel from oil.
    And in general, why destroy oil refineries if it is better to destroy production sites, drilling platforms and wells?
    1. AUL
      +5
      3 September 2019 07: 04
      Quote: Archon
      And in general, why destroy oil refineries if it is better to destroy production sites, drilling platforms and wells?

      Then, the refinery, where all the extracted oil flows, is in full view, and there are few of them, and it’s very expensive to catch wells throughout the taiga and tundra!
      Quote: Archon
      In the case of the war that you described, will build fast new refineries

      The article says - a large distillation column - a piece of product, its manufacture and installation take a long time (and this is in peacetime!) And where will you make it in war, and even quickly, when all the remnants of the industry will be occupied by a completely different one?
    2. +1
      4 September 2019 08: 05
      Quote: Archon
      In the case of the war that you described, they will build quickly new refineries, and during the waiting period they use mini refineries.
      You can buy a mini refinery in Taganrog yourself and produce fuel from oil.
      And in general, why destroy oil refineries if it is better to destroy production sites, drilling platforms and wells?

      Oil refineries destroyed in order. that there would be no chance to replenish reserves.
      I wonder how many people will be given the opportunity to buy refineries during the war.
      Where they will mount them, how to conduct electricity to the mounted refineries.
      And where will they get oil and how will they carry out logistical tasks during the war.

      You can destroy tanks by catching them one by one. or you can destroy one tanker ...
      the result will be the same.
      1. 0
        6 September 2019 20: 06
        Fuel plants and tankers are all protected and will not be allowed to destroy them, but wells and drilling platforms are defenseless.
  7. 14+
    3 September 2019 05: 56
    Partners with partners do not fight smile They take them from the inside ... And who will bomb their own ... smile
    1. +6
      3 September 2019 06: 11
      And here I completely agree .... The cataclysm is canceled. There is an option that they themselves (that is, our guides) on a silver platter will bring ... The events of the last thirty-five years show ...
  8. 0
    3 September 2019 06: 04
    Well, purely so, to speculate, to pamper .. and what if yes, if only ... there will not be protracted wars between the nuclear powers now!
  9. +1
    3 September 2019 06: 55
    Somewhere where the locomotives are in huge quantities on conservation, I saw it myself. Strategic margin however. Nobody has yet canceled firewood and coal as fuel.
    And most importantly, a serious war will not last so long, everything will end very quickly, we won’t even have time to get scared, well, maybe some advanced ones. hi
    1. +3
      3 September 2019 09: 21
      Quote: Ros 56
      And most importantly, a serious war will not last so long, everything will end very quickly, we won’t even have time to get scared, well, maybe some advanced

      ... advanced who? Those children who went to school yesterday (or were unable to go) ...
      Adults can tolerate this, sit out in the taiga or in the bunker, to whom it will fall out. Where are they going? And those who are in hospitals and at home (goes to the store once a week)? belay
      And, in principle, why not agree with your words? It will be so. More recently, when the Krasnoyarsk taiga was burning, Uss did not even have time to get scared. It’s just that it didn’t blow a whisker and that’s all ... And today no one remembers about it ...
  10. +6
    3 September 2019 07: 30
    An advertising company promoting the Ecuot pyrolysis plant on the market continues.
    What are we going to read in the next article about why the state should rush, breaking its legs to buy these "completely unique installations"?
  11. -2
    3 September 2019 07: 41
    Hence the conclusion: if the enemy gives us large refineries, then Russia will last only a week,
    I’m wondering, but will the enemy in our territory move on horseback or steam? In my opinion, the author was specifically stuck in the first half of the twentieth century ...
    1. 0
      3 September 2019 15: 05
      Glory hi I understand your irony ... But if seriously, the adversary will move in the minds of generations, those who follow us. It is safer, albeit prolonged. And they have experience and examples of how to dump the same USSR. Hence, one must fight for the minds, make life more attractive in our country, educate patriots, not consumer plankton.
  12. 0
    3 September 2019 07: 43
    And where is the secret reserve of the Federal Reserve? The question is rhetorical.
    1. +1
      3 September 2019 09: 26
      Quote: ButchCassidy
      And where is the secret reserve of the Federal Reserve? The question is rhetorical.

      What your question-axiom in writing will look like - I don’t know. Visually it is something like this:

      laughing
      1. +1
        3 September 2019 19: 22
        And then the point is in posing the question of how long we can hold out in case of war, excluding reserves for a "rainy day"? At least you can say about them? Not a word in the article.
  13. +4
    3 September 2019 08: 12
    Surely stocks are even smaller. All the young reformers have sold out. Their future is not in Russia, so they don’t need to worry.
  14. +6
    3 September 2019 08: 14
    What is the point of talking about destroyed refineries if power plants are destroyed at the same time? And then ALL AT ALL will rise, and the surviving refineries too. The war will end.
  15. BAI
    +1
    3 September 2019 08: 54
    The current consumption of railways is 2,5 million tons, but due to the fact that the enemy will also hit the electric power industry, the railways will be forced to switch from electric traction (86% of energy consumption) to diesel and they will put all the diesel locomotives they have on the move there is.

    And the author is aware that we still have such warehouses?

    Therefore, after the passage about the railways, the author’s competence in this matter raises doubts.
    All these calculations are all the more doubtful that no one will hold such fuel reserves (and still need to spend money on its maintenance). In a threatened period, they will cut off all civilian supplies and put them all to stockpiling.
    By the way, the author completely does not take into account emergency recovery work. You might think everything will be destroyed immediately and forever.
    Mobilization plans and resources - information not even of the SS, but OM. And to search for information on the Internet on them, at least, to put it mildly, is not reasonable.
    1. +1
      4 September 2019 08: 12
      Quote: BAI
      The current consumption of railways is 2,5 million tons, but due to the fact that the enemy will also hit the electric power industry, the railways will be forced to switch from electric traction (86% of energy consumption) to diesel and they will put all the diesel locomotives they have on the move there is.

      And the author is aware that we still have such warehouses?

      Therefore, after the passage about the railways, the author’s competence in this matter raises doubts.
      All these calculations are all the more doubtful that no one will hold such fuel reserves (and still need to spend money on its maintenance). In a threatened period, they will cut off all civilian supplies and put them all to stockpiling.
      By the way, the author completely does not take into account emergency recovery work. You might think everything will be destroyed immediately and forever.
      Mobilization plans and resources - information not even of the SS, but OM. And to search for information on the Internet on them, at least, to put it mildly, is not reasonable.


      Yes Yes..
      You have shown hundreds of steam locomotives. but apparently you don’t know about the millions of electrified transfer switches ... which can be transferred to manual control - it is unrealistic for six months. And even two.
      A semaphore-traffic light system than you will replace without electricity?

      About mobilization warehouses.
      Mobile fuel depots - are located on the basis of existing LPDS.
      There are no separate, secret, hidden underground or rocks, oil depots and oil storage facilities.
      I’m telling you this for sure.
      As a former carrier of information on warehouses of a mobile reserve in one of the regions.
      I could say that I saw where and what is.
      but for fuel - definitely - no. there are no such warehouses ..
      1. BAI
        0
        4 September 2019 08: 37
        I wrote it clearly -
        no one will hold such fuel reserves. In a threatened period, they will cut off all civilian supplies and put them all to stockpiling.

        And the arrows are all on a pneumatic drive. Electric - management that is quickly restored.
        1. +1
          4 September 2019 08: 45
          Quote: BAI
          I wrote it clearly -
          no one will hold such fuel reserves. In a threatened period, they will cut off all civilian supplies and put them all to stockpiling.

          And the arrows are all on a pneumatic drive. Electric - management that is quickly restored.


          Good .. You were able to fire arrows from the backup generators.
          And traffic lights, semaphores too.

          But.
          Who will manage the steam locomotives?
          In the pre-war era, to become a machinist, you had to be an assistant from 5 to 10 years.
          Learning to work with a steam engine is much more difficult than it sounds.
          You must be able to maintain both the pressure in the boiler and the temperature of the steam, and much more.
          Once missed and got a pumpkin.
          It takes a lot of time to learn.
          But he is not.
    2. +1
      5 September 2019 07: 23
      Well, if you type a hundred serviceable steam locomotives throughout the country. But ... Can you even imagine the work of the engine park? The philistine approach is that you put coal in the firebox and charge it with water. This is a VERY laborious and financially costly affair to contain steam locomotives. By the way, steam traction also consumes fuel and lubricants. In considerable quantities, elementary - for lubrication.
      Here, there is a topic for the article - "Locomotives in the conditions of the Third World War")))
  16. +2
    3 September 2019 08: 55
    radical restructuring of the entire economy of the country, especially fuel, is required.
    I agree with all of 200%. But under the current government this is not possible. A competent article.
  17. 0
    3 September 2019 09: 00
    The author described the worst case scenario. In fact, the fuel will last an order of magnitude longer. In addition, even if the fuel runs out, in the event of a major war, the world will still come to an end after a global nuclear strike. And the surviving population will be heated with firewood.
    1. +1
      3 September 2019 11: 47
      Quote: Esaul
      The author described the worst case scenario. In fact, the fuel will last an order of magnitude longer.

      The author at least gave the calculations. Do you offer to take a word?
      Quote: Esaul
      in the event of a major war, the world will still come to an end after a global nuclear strike.

      Grandma said in two. Nuclear winter is in doubt, maybe it will - maybe not.
    2. 0
      3 September 2019 22: 06
      Gazenvagen on wood! And do not care for the oil industry.
  18. +2
    3 September 2019 09: 20
    This is all very nice, but a big war with almost 100% guarantee will come down to an exchange of nuclear strikes, which will lead to a stalemate within the first week. This is bad news. And the good news is that the Yankees, for example, do not even want to fight with the DPRK, and even more so with Russia.
  19. +4
    3 September 2019 09: 42
    There was an analysis of the health of the gas distribution network. Most of the network passes through one node (possibly in the Perm region). disable it in case of war of any scale is not the most difficult thing.

    The proposed model of logistics and its functioning in extraordinary times shows that in the conditions of the global war the model changes its structure and does not have reserves for the normal functioning.

    The stock of steam locomotives is a matter of complacency.
  20. -2
    3 September 2019 09: 44
    I proceed from the worst-case scenario that the adversary managed to incapacitate for a long time all of the 34 major refineries in Russia.

    On this you can finish reading these mathematical delights. Any perspectives on a national scale must be considered in the complex of available capabilities, approved algorithms and many other integral factors. The author, apparently, does not catch up with the fact that the "worst-case scenario" will not continue "for a long time." Because today it is not 1941 at all.
  21. -2
    3 September 2019 10: 07
    Another thing is gone, everything is gone, the plaster is removed = the client leaves!
  22. -5
    3 September 2019 10: 15
    It is advisable for the author to study the materiel - the mobilization fuel reserves of the Russian Federation are not located in Russia, but in the Gulf countries bully
    1. +1
      4 September 2019 08: 14
      Quote: Operator
      It is advisable for the author to study the materiel - the mobilization fuel reserves of the Russian Federation are not located in Russia, but in the Gulf countries bully

      And how do they get to Russia?
      Well, for example. in the conditions of the blockade of the sea?
      1. 0
        4 September 2019 11: 27
        Through the former Iran and Azerbaijan, vestimo bully
        1. 0
          4 September 2019 21: 01
          Quote: Operator
          Through the former Iran and Azerbaijan, vestimo bully

          Is there infrastructure there?
          1. 0
            4 September 2019 21: 22
            Azerbaijan has a Soviet oil and gas production / refining industry and pipeline / railway infrastructure, and Iran has Iran. They are interconnected.

            Plus the Caspian Sea (Enzeli, Baku, Makhachkala, Astrakhan).
            1. 0
              5 September 2019 19: 54
              Quote: Operator
              Azerbaijan has a Soviet oil and gas production / refining industry and pipeline / railway infrastructure, and Iran has Iran. They are interconnected.


              you are lying again, living in your alternative universe ...
              the pipes are not connected ...
              1. -3
                5 September 2019 20: 33
                "Connected" - finish elementary school first, and then be smart:
                gas pipeline Gazimamd-Astara-Abadan;
                railway Astara - Rasht - Qazvin.
                1. 0
                  5 September 2019 21: 04
                  Quote: Operator
                  "Connected" - finish elementary school first, and then be smart:
                  gas pipeline Gazimamd-Astara-Abadan;
                  railway Astara - Rasht - Qazvin.


                  those. You don’t even understand what is the difference between LPS and COP?
                  You do not understand. What is a gas hub and oil terminal?

                  Are you going to drive oil wagons?
                  before they wrote about the connected pipe, or did they change their shoes on the fly?
  23. +2
    3 September 2019 10: 20
    Information on fuel supplies, ammunition, mobilization capabilities of enterprises, etc. are a state secret and no one will tell you the truth, and therefore any discussion of these issues in such resources is nothing more than empty chatter and therefore have no meaning.
  24. 0
    3 September 2019 10: 24
    They are quietly pushing us painlessly economically for themselves, but if anything, we will burn everything together in a nuclear fire. I think so!
  25. -1
    3 September 2019 10: 26
    [quote = AUL] [quote = Archon] In the article it is said - a large distillation column is a piece product, its manufacture and installation take a long time (and this is in peacetime!) And where do you make it in the military, and even quickly, when all the remnants of the industry will be occupied by a completely different? [/ quote]
    The simplest refinery is no more complicated than a moonshine. The capacity is already there, the railway tank. The exit, of course, is not great, and waste in the ravine, but for that it is the simplest.
  26. 0
    3 September 2019 11: 00
    How touchingly the boy praises himself and his "knowledge". Wherever there is the General Staff, intelligence, other departments .. We have already won the World War, whatever one may say, no matter how you pick something in something. Because we have the invincible D. Verkhoturov.)
  27. 0
    3 September 2019 11: 21
    Again the troll is numb ...
    1. The data on the warehouses of the Russian reserve are secret and cannot be added to it in any way! This is the time.
    2. We won’t be whipping boys and in return enemy’s warehouses will be destroyed. Does the troll logic mean that the enemy has already lost?
    Threat I am surprised that the editorial board on a regular basis gives the floor to Russophobian trolls ...
    1. -4
      3 September 2019 14: 18
      They just catch the hype. The positive news is that at most a dozen comments. "Rashka FSE" - hundreds of comments, reposts, etc. After all, this very "Rashka FSE" is liked by both liberals and local galloping communists. A plus
  28. -5
    3 September 2019 12: 11
    article from a series of children's question who is stronger than a whale or an elephant
  29. -2
    3 September 2019 13: 05
    As Mr. Chernomyrdin used to say, "It never happened and now again." Okay, at least again this moonshine still is not vparivayut. It feels like the author has been preparing for a trench warfare with millions of armies for several years. Well, there will be no such wars between nuclear powers! How do you distinguish the launch of cruise missiles with a conventional warhead from a nuclear one, will you wait until it flies on your head? Or in the states are fabulous d ... s, like we are in the Russian bullet, but they will not answer us. Everywhere people understand that in response to such an attack, a vigorous loaf will fly in response and more than one.
  30. -1
    3 September 2019 13: 16
    In general, we lost the World War, whatever one may say.

    And is the World War when the whole world is against Russia? Moreover, strikes will be made on the oil industry.
  31. -1
    3 September 2019 16: 31
    Supplies for a week of war... Is anyone planning to fight for a week?
  32. +4
    3 September 2019 20: 28
    War, of course, but what’s the reason for fighting? (House family is understandable) and then? For what power do you fold your head? If, after the civilian period, the Bolsheviks seriously improved the life of the mass of people in the domestic and educational plan, which increased the authority of the government and the incentive for it to die in the domestic one. Now what? For another red-faced ignoramus by the driver’s hands, or for a new air tax, or for the next year near-zero GDP growth and a new price increase in war? I do not think that this time there are many who wish and a nation-wide rise, ala get up the country a huge nifiga will not roll during this lifetime.
  33. +1
    3 September 2019 20: 44
    "... Hypochondria, Fimka? This is when a person thinks whether the sun will rise tomorrow, or not."
  34. 0
    3 September 2019 23: 10
    It's all bullshit. There will be no war. The main thing is that production is growing, there is more money from oil, and the population's income is falling. The rulers are to blame, they take everything for themselves.
  35. +1
    3 September 2019 23: 10
    And if all the savings of our oil magnates are in Western banks, then what kind of savings can we have, in anything?
  36. +3
    4 September 2019 00: 29
    Such "spherical analytics in a vacuum" always leaves me with an ambivalent feeling: on the one hand, a person tried, on the other, it is so stupid and senseless to make assessments of something, ignoring a number of important factors.
  37. 0
    4 September 2019 04: 51
    alarmists to the walls and basta!
  38. 0
    4 September 2019 10: 35
    funny. and in Chechnya the locals didn’t even know that everything was gone when they put the samovars and distilled oil in 70 .. artfully
    1. 0
      5 September 2019 09: 32
      Author super handsome! Analytics smells like a sofa ... Ukrainian ...
      “Of which 71 million tons falls on the Volga region (Tatarstan, Bashkiria and Astrakhan region). And the enemy can capture this region with an offensive from the territory of Ukraine. ”Oh ... the valiant APU will capture Russia? Already running to give up ... is it not broadcasting with Independent?
      “In general, we lost the world war, whatever one may say.” The conclusion is made without taking into account the storage of mobile reserves and reserves at all levels in emergency situations! But for some reason, the conclusion is one-sided, the enemy will clatter us and we will not stoically knock out their oil pipelines and storages? And why? And if we also knock out oil pipelines and storage facilities from them, does this mean:
      “In general, they lost the World War, whatever one may say.”
      Threats of such quality can be found in abundance in Ukrainian forums. I am ashamed of the editorial board of VO publishing this ....
  39. -1
    5 September 2019 18: 27
    When Hitler started the war against the Soviet Union, Germany had the estimated fuel reserves for the 20 days of the war. It was fuel for German tanks, cars, planes and ships. Then the Germans seized the largest Russian strategic warehouses with weapons and fuel on the Western border, and this fuel and lubricant was enough for several years of the war.
    Thus, the German army repeated its historical success during the First World War, when the German army managed to capture the tsarist Russian strategic weapons depots.
    Given these two events, during the Soviet era it was believed that such warehouses should be built in a considerable depth of their territory.
  40. +1
    6 September 2019 15: 34
    Not so long ago, Novosibirsk scientists proposed a new technology for oil refining without the use of distillation columns: with the help of catalysts, it was possible to achieve deeper processing and get better fuels for almost nothing. These scientists were sent by the forest to put their technology away, until they were found in an inanimate form. And in wartime, only such technologies will make it possible to supply the army and industry with the necessary oil products ... Therefore, these scientists should be asked to set up their process in test mode within the Armed Forces.
  41. 0
    6 September 2019 21: 12
    Hence the conclusion: if the enemy gives us large refineries, then Russia will last only a week, and then there will be an economic collapse and defeat due to the complete exhaustion of the remaining reserves of oil products

    The conclusion is categorically wrong. In the event of war and the removal of our refineries - this is an instant reason to answer with nuclear weapons. There will be no winners.
    Although ... Knowing where the children live, the wives of our leaders, where their finances are stored, where their villas and vineyards are located, whose citizenship is their wives and children, you immediately understand that there will be no war. What for ? They already sell Russia for unsawed toad skins.
  42. +2
    7 September 2019 00: 11
    In general, we lost the World War, whatever one may say. And “good fuel reserves”, which seem to some, will not help us. For a major war, and for the sustainability of the economy from any military attack, a radical restructuring of the country's entire economy, especially fuel, is required.

    With such theoretical calculations, the author also needs to add that before the start of the war, all nuclear missiles, bombs, shells, torpedoes, and mines disappeared. Based on the article, the enemy worked for us with these means to the fullest, but didn’t get any answers, completely preserved his cities and infrastructure, drowned our entire fleet, we can’t disrupt its trade routes, our entire airborne forces also disappeared from air defense, the sky we do not control. There was 1,5 of the tank and a loud commander. laughing
    In reality, when the global war begins, everyone, even those who are not involved, will not be up to fuel and lubricants, that's for sure.
  43. +1
    7 September 2019 19: 36
    Another strange article. Who in their right mind would attack Russia? Who is capable of it? Who needs it? Europe is useless at all. The States, why would they need it, it is more profitable to whip up a wave and saw off money under a "threat" than to fight. And they are not like that, although all sorts of scenarios are being developed, as in Russia. Who will attack, how many countries are really capable of this? India? China? China can quietly "populate" maybe the taiga, if you let it, but I don't think they will fight directly. They have overpopulation now, and in the next generation there will be a sharp decline, thanks to the "one child per family" policy.
    Another thing is a "proxy" war, that could be terrorist attacks, etc. Everything else is nonsense, in my opinion, just to write about something.
  44. 0
    10 September 2019 15: 52
    Thank you for the article! It’s very interesting, but I still think that refineries will not be so easy to destroy, especially those located in the interior, such as Achinsky.
  45. 0
    13 September 2019 10: 25
    They will ride horses and wave a saber ...
    What is the long war? Not enough nuclear warheads?
    I understand that in case of a threat of war all major officials will try their best to surrender Russia to the enemy, if only the rockets do not fly towards their relatives living in enemy countries.
    In any case, there will not be a protracted war: either - surrender, or - a nuclear strike on all centers ...
  46. 0
    13 September 2019 14: 23
    A "protracted war" is a battle over the means of transporting gas. To what extent will the Russian Federation have enough resources to maintain political stability if gas transit through the Nord Streams is prohibited until an alternative regime is established in Moscow? The whole strategy of Kiev is to wait for the end of the collapse of the USSR according to Brzezinski. It's time to start categorizing business "partners" for propaganda purposes. The population must understand which of them is already an enemy. And the enemy should be hit.