The first test of a "new" ground-based cruise missile - I blinded you from what was
The first test in the USA recently launched a sea-based test of the Tomahawk-style sea base from a landfill, declared "launch from a mobile platform", was an expected event. Unlike other types of rocket weapons of shorter and medium range, it would not be difficult for the Americans to transfer marine KR, albeit strictly non-nuclear (there is neither a corresponding modification, nor, especially, charges for it). The task of creating a self-propelled or towed mobile launcher for Americans is certainly within their power. But, looking at the photos and videos of this event, there is a feeling that it was expected much more than it turned out in reality.
The launch was carried out from a site on the island of San Nicholas off the coast of California at a distance of just over 500 km and was declared successful, and, most likely, it was - the Tomahawk has been worked out for a long time. The launch was carried out from the site on which the development of a number of missile defense systems was carried out, in particular, the Israeli Hets-3 (Arrow-3) system. Someone after the test “made a discovery” that this site, from where it was launched, has existed since 2015, and that this indicates that the Americans are preparing to leave the INF Treaty and act after it from now on. No, because the site was built for another. And it’s not the site, but the launcher. If you can call it that.
The Americans did not show any real mobile PU, they obviously just do not have it yet. They showed the launch of marine KR from the vertical module part naval PU Mk41 installed on a simple trailer, the appearance of which speaks of commercial use. It seems that this launcher just stands on the trailer, and nothing more. Of course, it was fixed there, nevertheless. It is impossible to use this artifact, cobbled together in haste according to the recipe of the famous song by Alena Apina, as a combat PU. This is not even a demonstrator of PU. This is a demonstrator of the possibility of launching from land, but who doubted this?
But on the other hand, they did not forget to hang the US flag, strongly reminding them of our feral Svidomo "non-brothers" from the territory of Ukraine. They, too, are very fond of “peremogi”, molded “of cones and acorns,” and they like to hide large-sized yellow-blakita panels with the wretchedness of what they pass off as “new” guided missiles, then as “anti-ship missiles”. So here - the flag was intended to smooth out the effect of the fact that, in fact, the Americans have nothing so far, except, of course, the most non-nuclear KR and the possibility of launching it from the UVP Mk41 and on land, which no one doubted. Even American experts immediately began to criticize the Pentagon for such a miserable demonstration.
Looking at this sad sight, I somehow do not believe in the stories of our Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry and even the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the President of Russia that the Americans were preparing ahead of time to leave the INF Treaty. Maybe they prepared morally and politically, but not technically. Probably, the Pentagon and its contractors slept all this time in the shafts of the stables, or were busy with something else that they did not even work on creating a launcher for the long-standing KR. And they demanded from the White House to "do at least something and show the world", and so they "blinded from what was" in a hurry.
The Pentagon itself, in general, realizing how miserable it was that it showed, hastened to recover, that the system was "in the very initial stage of testing" and it would take "a lot of time" to refine it. The Americans will create the launch pad, of course, there is no doubt about it. The question is when.
At the same time, the Americans, in general, achieved a negative effect with this launch. In the very possibility for Tomahok to fly from land no one doubted how to take off from the MK41. And the evidence of this fact confirms the pros, but the cons begin.
Firstly, they are untying Russia's hands even more, and one should not be surprised if literally in a few days something of medium range flies with us, ballistic or winged. NOTAMs, published in the coming days, speak of probability as launching something intercontinental, but with a planning winged block on the Southern test route from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan, something, possibly anti-ballistic, in the north (say, “Nudol” ), and something that, having studied NOTAM, can be mistaken for something of just medium range. But, in general, these are only assumptions. If it does not happen this time, soon it will definitely not matter.
Secondly, the Americans showed that on this subject "the horse did not roll," which is certainly bad. Although, on the other hand, it pours water on the mill of the American position - "we did not violate anything in the INF Treaty, unlike the Russians." Yes, they probably didn’t violate the truth in this matter, but violations were enough.
Thirdly, by launching a cruise missile from the MK41 land module, the Pentagon only confirmed the Russian propaganda thesis that the Tomahok missile launcher can be launched from the Aegis-Eshor missile defense system located in Eastern Europe. It is propagandistic because the placement of the whole 1-2 launchers there in 8-16 (if you throw out all the SM-3 missiles from it) of the KR in non-nuclear military equipment makes no sense. Yes, even in a stationary control room with absolutely zero security - the Americans were too lazy to even install them in-depth. But the United States denied that it was in these Mk41 modules that you could install Tomahoki, and now, it turns out, they caught themselves in a lie. Although, of course, they may declare that this is the “wrong” module that is based on missile defense bases, Russia will state the opposite, and so on.
In general, everything is bad with this missile defense system. Take not Aegis Ashore, but the GMD system. As you know, the recently announced "ABM Policy Review" declared the additional deployment of 20 GBI missiles (in addition to 44), but with a new redesigned RKV interceptor. But recently appeared news - The RKV program, which took more than 1 billion dollars, was closed. There will be a new competition for a new interceptor. That is, everything turned out about the same as it was already. After all, the Americans had already planned to place new EKV interceptors on the first 44 GBI, then there were plans to create a shared warhead with multiple MKV interceptors - but all these plans were canceled in due time for various reasons. Of course, the money for the preliminary development went and went. Now it’s the turn of the RKV. And there, a new interceptor will be cut off in due time.
However, the Americans now also want a new missile defense system to replace the GBI, apparently realizing that they will not succeed in intercepting real missiles of intercontinental radius, even in greenhouse conditions. But how long does it take? Lot. And the result is not guaranteed. However, here, obviously, all interested parties are much more interested in the process than the result. It seems that with the epic around the INF, the process is also much more important than the case and the result. But for Russia, this is certainly good.
San Nicholas Island and the location of test facilities on it
The test site itself
The launch was carried out from a site on the island of San Nicholas off the coast of California at a distance of just over 500 km and was declared successful, and, most likely, it was - the Tomahawk has been worked out for a long time. The launch was carried out from the site on which the development of a number of missile defense systems was carried out, in particular, the Israeli Hets-3 (Arrow-3) system. Someone after the test “made a discovery” that this site, from where it was launched, has existed since 2015, and that this indicates that the Americans are preparing to leave the INF Treaty and act after it from now on. No, because the site was built for another. And it’s not the site, but the launcher. If you can call it that.
Done on the knee
The Americans did not show any real mobile PU, they obviously just do not have it yet. They showed the launch of marine KR from the vertical module part naval PU Mk41 installed on a simple trailer, the appearance of which speaks of commercial use. It seems that this launcher just stands on the trailer, and nothing more. Of course, it was fixed there, nevertheless. It is impossible to use this artifact, cobbled together in haste according to the recipe of the famous song by Alena Apina, as a combat PU. This is not even a demonstrator of PU. This is a demonstrator of the possibility of launching from land, but who doubted this?
But on the other hand, they did not forget to hang the US flag, strongly reminding them of our feral Svidomo "non-brothers" from the territory of Ukraine. They, too, are very fond of “peremogi”, molded “of cones and acorns,” and they like to hide large-sized yellow-blakita panels with the wretchedness of what they pass off as “new” guided missiles, then as “anti-ship missiles”. So here - the flag was intended to smooth out the effect of the fact that, in fact, the Americans have nothing so far, except, of course, the most non-nuclear KR and the possibility of launching it from the UVP Mk41 and on land, which no one doubted. Even American experts immediately began to criticize the Pentagon for such a miserable demonstration.
No one was preparing?
Looking at this sad sight, I somehow do not believe in the stories of our Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry and even the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the President of Russia that the Americans were preparing ahead of time to leave the INF Treaty. Maybe they prepared morally and politically, but not technically. Probably, the Pentagon and its contractors slept all this time in the shafts of the stables, or were busy with something else that they did not even work on creating a launcher for the long-standing KR. And they demanded from the White House to "do at least something and show the world", and so they "blinded from what was" in a hurry.
The Pentagon itself, in general, realizing how miserable it was that it showed, hastened to recover, that the system was "in the very initial stage of testing" and it would take "a lot of time" to refine it. The Americans will create the launch pad, of course, there is no doubt about it. The question is when.
Negative effect
At the same time, the Americans, in general, achieved a negative effect with this launch. In the very possibility for Tomahok to fly from land no one doubted how to take off from the MK41. And the evidence of this fact confirms the pros, but the cons begin.
Firstly, they are untying Russia's hands even more, and one should not be surprised if literally in a few days something of medium range flies with us, ballistic or winged. NOTAMs, published in the coming days, speak of probability as launching something intercontinental, but with a planning winged block on the Southern test route from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan, something, possibly anti-ballistic, in the north (say, “Nudol” ), and something that, having studied NOTAM, can be mistaken for something of just medium range. But, in general, these are only assumptions. If it does not happen this time, soon it will definitely not matter.
Secondly, the Americans showed that on this subject "the horse did not roll," which is certainly bad. Although, on the other hand, it pours water on the mill of the American position - "we did not violate anything in the INF Treaty, unlike the Russians." Yes, they probably didn’t violate the truth in this matter, but violations were enough.
Thirdly, by launching a cruise missile from the MK41 land module, the Pentagon only confirmed the Russian propaganda thesis that the Tomahok missile launcher can be launched from the Aegis-Eshor missile defense system located in Eastern Europe. It is propagandistic because the placement of the whole 1-2 launchers there in 8-16 (if you throw out all the SM-3 missiles from it) of the KR in non-nuclear military equipment makes no sense. Yes, even in a stationary control room with absolutely zero security - the Americans were too lazy to even install them in-depth. But the United States denied that it was in these Mk41 modules that you could install Tomahoki, and now, it turns out, they caught themselves in a lie. Although, of course, they may declare that this is the “wrong” module that is based on missile defense bases, Russia will state the opposite, and so on.
Endless story
In general, everything is bad with this missile defense system. Take not Aegis Ashore, but the GMD system. As you know, the recently announced "ABM Policy Review" declared the additional deployment of 20 GBI missiles (in addition to 44), but with a new redesigned RKV interceptor. But recently appeared news - The RKV program, which took more than 1 billion dollars, was closed. There will be a new competition for a new interceptor. That is, everything turned out about the same as it was already. After all, the Americans had already planned to place new EKV interceptors on the first 44 GBI, then there were plans to create a shared warhead with multiple MKV interceptors - but all these plans were canceled in due time for various reasons. Of course, the money for the preliminary development went and went. Now it’s the turn of the RKV. And there, a new interceptor will be cut off in due time.
However, the Americans now also want a new missile defense system to replace the GBI, apparently realizing that they will not succeed in intercepting real missiles of intercontinental radius, even in greenhouse conditions. But how long does it take? Lot. And the result is not guaranteed. However, here, obviously, all interested parties are much more interested in the process than the result. It seems that with the epic around the INF, the process is also much more important than the case and the result. But for Russia, this is certainly good.
Information