"Turkey went against Russia's interests in Syria" Or is it not so scary?
As you probably know, in Syria, the Syrian army, mainly the “Tiger Forces” division of General Suheil al-Hassan's “Tiger,” aviation and the artillery support of the Group of Forces (forces) of the RF Armed Forces in the SAR, and, of course, intelligence support and under the command of our headquarters, the operation to liquidate the "Latami projection" in the northern part of the governorate (province) of Hama and southern Idlib is being completed. So far, the ledge has not yet been completely cut off, the main highway from it, M5, has been cut, and a gradual occupation of the key city of Khan Sheikhun is ongoing.
But the gangs, despite the declared statements that they will "fight to the end" (it is not specified whose, and does not specify where they will fight: maybe in Idlib, or maybe in Germany), are gradually withdrawing their forces through the still open part of the neck. And the Syrian troops are not in a hurry to occupy the remaining territories, which are full of mines, IEDs, and unexploded bombs, missiles, submunitions - after all, the territory of the ledge has been regularly bombed and fired on for more than one year, and recently the intensity has increased tenfold. But in any case, we can say that the ledge has come to an end. Everything that was acquired by the overwork of thousands of bandits and their patrons in this strongly fortified territory went to dust. We will not deal with the calculation of the number of leather jackets and other things, let's talk about something else.
In connection with the gestures of Turkey, on the key to the fate of the protest, the day of August 19, when the Syrian units cut M5, several publications appeared in our media in the typical alarmist spirit of the type “well, all friendship with Turkey is over” under the slogan “Turkey went against Russia's interests in Syria. " Like, we are establishing relations with the Turks, letting them go to Syria (not just the same, and to our own advantage too - when relations with the Turks were extremely hostile, they were afraid to meddle in Syria), we will sell C-400 export, we will sell Su-35CE, maybe and they are with us! Let's figure it out, went, didn’t go, whether this is the first time, and whether there is crime in the unsuccessful attempt of the Turks to push two military convoys into the ledge.
The Turks really tried to drag their military convoy into the operation zone, together with 6-7 tanks M60A3 (which, frankly, in this war except to scare children) and armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Officially, they marched under Morek, where, in agreement with the two other guarantor powers of the peace process in Syria, Russia and Iran, the Turks still have an observation post. Much indicated that the Turks would like to withdraw this post, for which there were many empty trailer platforms in the convoy. But where to get it out is a question. Because the headquarters in Khimki (Khmeimim) and the headquarters in Damascus apparently had a suspicion that the Turks might drag this post under Khan Sheikhun. This would not have stopped the Syrian-Russian operations, but would have somewhat complicated them (the post itself would not have been bombed, and they would not have been nearby, a few hundred meters, but no more). The fact that the "green" bandits, while the convoy was traveling south, imagined that the Turks would now help them stop the Russian-Syrian ice rink - these are psychiatric problems of the "green". The Turks, of course, were not going to cross the road with the Russians because of the “bearded” people who had previously taken care of them (some guardianship remained, but salaries even in the Turkish formations fell sharply, and in all the others they fell several times, even in the strongest local HTS terrorist group - many sponsors left the anti-Syrian project earlier). But they obviously tried to cheat and try to tighten our operation. But it didn’t work out - air strikes by Russian and Syrian aircraft were delivered to the convoy, and not by himself, but by the militants accompanying them, and the convoy stood near the city of Maaret en Numan, because the city was bombed heavily. There were many militants moving to their aid. The Turkish F-16C fighters could not and did not want to oppose anything - the Russian Su-35S were nearby.
The trick failed, the fakir was drunk, and the Turks are now trying to put their NP somewhere near Hish, which, in general, will not affect the situation. The militants, who believed in the help of the Turks, perceived the situation so that their Turks “threw”. However, what did they want? The illusions that “America is with us”, “everyone will get their wallets abruptly and pay us a happy future”, “the West will help us”, “Europe is waiting”, “the Turks will come and pile on the Russians now” - they always end up broken trough and stuffed face.
Here I must say the following. The Turks, despite the obvious course towards strengthening relations with Russia and their deepening split in relations with the United States, intensified after the unsuccessful coup 2016 against Erdogan, organized by the United States and the "old European" powers, have their own interests in Syria and their vision of post-war Syria. Yes, the Turks have already said goodbye to the dreams of the annexation of a number of Syrian territories or the formation there of some kind of stable analogue of the DPR / LPR (the stability of which is guaranteed, of course, by whom and by what), or the Republic of Northern Cyprus (with Turkish AK as a guarantor ) Officially, they are all champions of the territorial integrity of Syria, and here they have no disagreements with Moscow. And they even actively oppose the Americans, who are quietly trying to blind some kind of pseudo-statehood from the Kurds to the Euphrates, though, at the same time, gradually surrendering these Kurds, like glass containers in Soviet times, to Russians and Turks. The Turks know the Kurds as flaky, for centuries the Sultans have been executors of the most dirty and bloody plans, and they do not need their statehood in any form. However, no one in the region needs the Kurdish state at all, and the point is not even the loss of important territories - simply nothing good will come of this venture.
But the Turks have their own motives in the Idlib party. Turks really do not want to fend off hordes of bearded or freshly shaven refugees who can do nothing but kill and rob at the border. They need them in Syria, they need them in Europe (since the Turks themselves do not take them to the EU), they will go to hell, but not in Turkey. Erdogan has not yet lost his mind - to welcome such guests. The Turks would very much like for some of the militants, those who are not included in the list of "official" terrorist groups, to live to see a future peace settlement. Once upon a time, it will be - any war ends in peace, and a war with signs of both external intervention and civilian, and Syrian just such, should end in peace with those defeated who reached out to him. Because you will not kill everyone, and especially you will not kill the families of the vanquished. Therefore, some kind of mechanism for incorporating the remnants of the winners conquered into society is always practically needed - as a guarantee that not everything will start again soon again, and if it does, it will not be so soon.
The Turks would like their former or current proteges to have some rights in the future federal Syrian Constitution. They need some influence on these clans, they need to participate in the post-war reconstruction, in general, they need gesheft. But the Turks will not let much more valuable projects with Russia, such as pipelines, nuclear power plants, the purchase of air defense systems and fighters, and much more, go under the knife. Not under the current government, especially since it has already been burned. And today's Ankara played into confrontation with Russia, and became convinced how beautiful it was, how it smelled of kerosene, dear NATO partners threw it, and also arranged a coup later. A recent story with C-400 and F-35 became the final, fattest piece of meat on the platter with the pilaf that Mr. Erdogan ate. But they can try to outwit in some aspects - this is normal. Sitting at a party at a feast, put your wallet under yourself ...
Russia, in general, understands these reasons, but it is in our interests to reduce this future influence to statistically insignificant. By the way, we also need Iranian influence in post-war Syria in much the same way as elk boots. Despite the allied relations with Iran in Syria, we clearly do not want Iran to have comparable influence with us there after the war. In the words of the heroes of one famous series about St. Petersburg cops - "this is our cow and we milk it." We have done the most for the victory of Damascus and have every right to take advantage of most of its future fruits, without forgetting, of course, about the rest - we, tea, are not Americans.
Therefore, we cooperate with the Turks in Syria, but we do not stop at such “thick hints” to our Turkish partners when they swim behind the buoys. This is not the first case - after all, there were artillery and air strikes against the Turks before, including from the Syrian side and from ours, and although they were declared random, not everyone could be such.
The fact that we are strengthening relations with the Turks does not mean that we fully trust them. In the East they say that you can trust a Turk if you hold a dagger near his throat. There are enough such sayings about almost all the local nations and nationalities - that’s the mentality, but the Turks, by virtue of their history, will only yield to the Kurds in terms of "popularity". Armenians say that if you are dealing with a Turk, then hold the stick in your hands, the Assyrians also have interesting proverbs about the Turks and so on. It is foolish to think that the Kremlin does not know all this and that they completely believe in Turkey. They do not believe anyone, in international politics, even with close allies, the principle of "trust, but verify." The fact that Turkey has its own interests in Syria and they do not always coincide with ours is not a reason to quarrel with Turkey and not to cooperate systematically in other aspects, and in Syria, limiting such attempts to unite when necessary. In addition, the game with Turkey has been designed for a long time, and one of its possible options is to split this country from NATO, or the NATO military organization, as it happens. Or a split only de facto. Now it doesn’t seem as fantastic as it was a few years ago, and the “American partners” help a lot here with their club policies regarding Ankara.
We live in a world that is not strictly divided into black and white, it has many “shades of gray” in politics. Countries that are close friends or allies, such as Russia and China, may well not agree on opinions or desires in some matters. It is normal, as it is normal for spouses to have different tastes and interests, respecting them. If we need other countries to agree with us on all issues, we need to have not allies, friends, partners, but slaves and dependent satellites. But this, Shurik, is not our method. Yes, and slaves tend to periodically fool the master - we look at the actions of Ukraine in relation to the United States, for example, in matters of the election campaign in the "host country".
Speaking of the convoy itself, one more thing to note. Turkey is not a single and tightly managed state. There was always a fair mess and different structures and circles pulling the blanket in different directions. And even after the purges that followed the coup, when Erdogan cleaned out everywhere “pro-Westerners” and people of a pro-American orientation, especially, there are enough circles in the army and special services that have their own gesheft and bandits in Syria, and their interests that diverge from Erdogan’s wishes and his people. And the army still lacks an audience that sympathizes with the Syrian bandits. AND weapons they can feed from warehouses even without the sanction of Ankara. So attempts to “help the brothers” might not have sanctioned from the very top. There is another option - the convoy was authorized from above and was such a kind of "bone that was thrown to a dead dog yesterday." That is, “help came out” even when it was clear that she couldn’t get there anymore, they cut the track or cut it just about and they won’t let it pass (and the command of our group contacts the Turks and probably made it clear), and stopped right away , as there was reason to stop. Like, they wanted to help, and it didn’t work out. Excuse me. As was the case in the famous Odessa joke about a letter that ended with the words "I wanted to send you 500 rubles, but the trouble is - I sealed the envelope." But rather, nevertheless, the Turks did not plan anything but transferring the NP from under Morek to Khan Sheikhun.
In general, the East, as you know, is a delicate matter, our world is complex, and we should not try to drive any action of any country into the “ours-not ours” template.
But the gangs, despite the declared statements that they will "fight to the end" (it is not specified whose, and does not specify where they will fight: maybe in Idlib, or maybe in Germany), are gradually withdrawing their forces through the still open part of the neck. And the Syrian troops are not in a hurry to occupy the remaining territories, which are full of mines, IEDs, and unexploded bombs, missiles, submunitions - after all, the territory of the ledge has been regularly bombed and fired on for more than one year, and recently the intensity has increased tenfold. But in any case, we can say that the ledge has come to an end. Everything that was acquired by the overwork of thousands of bandits and their patrons in this strongly fortified territory went to dust. We will not deal with the calculation of the number of leather jackets and other things, let's talk about something else.
Turkish march
In connection with the gestures of Turkey, on the key to the fate of the protest, the day of August 19, when the Syrian units cut M5, several publications appeared in our media in the typical alarmist spirit of the type “well, all friendship with Turkey is over” under the slogan “Turkey went against Russia's interests in Syria. " Like, we are establishing relations with the Turks, letting them go to Syria (not just the same, and to our own advantage too - when relations with the Turks were extremely hostile, they were afraid to meddle in Syria), we will sell C-400 export, we will sell Su-35CE, maybe and they are with us! Let's figure it out, went, didn’t go, whether this is the first time, and whether there is crime in the unsuccessful attempt of the Turks to push two military convoys into the ledge.
The Turks really tried to drag their military convoy into the operation zone, together with 6-7 tanks M60A3 (which, frankly, in this war except to scare children) and armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Officially, they marched under Morek, where, in agreement with the two other guarantor powers of the peace process in Syria, Russia and Iran, the Turks still have an observation post. Much indicated that the Turks would like to withdraw this post, for which there were many empty trailer platforms in the convoy. But where to get it out is a question. Because the headquarters in Khimki (Khmeimim) and the headquarters in Damascus apparently had a suspicion that the Turks might drag this post under Khan Sheikhun. This would not have stopped the Syrian-Russian operations, but would have somewhat complicated them (the post itself would not have been bombed, and they would not have been nearby, a few hundred meters, but no more). The fact that the "green" bandits, while the convoy was traveling south, imagined that the Turks would now help them stop the Russian-Syrian ice rink - these are psychiatric problems of the "green". The Turks, of course, were not going to cross the road with the Russians because of the “bearded” people who had previously taken care of them (some guardianship remained, but salaries even in the Turkish formations fell sharply, and in all the others they fell several times, even in the strongest local HTS terrorist group - many sponsors left the anti-Syrian project earlier). But they obviously tried to cheat and try to tighten our operation. But it didn’t work out - air strikes by Russian and Syrian aircraft were delivered to the convoy, and not by himself, but by the militants accompanying them, and the convoy stood near the city of Maaret en Numan, because the city was bombed heavily. There were many militants moving to their aid. The Turkish F-16C fighters could not and did not want to oppose anything - the Russian Su-35S were nearby.
The trick failed, the fakir was drunk, and the Turks are now trying to put their NP somewhere near Hish, which, in general, will not affect the situation. The militants, who believed in the help of the Turks, perceived the situation so that their Turks “threw”. However, what did they want? The illusions that “America is with us”, “everyone will get their wallets abruptly and pay us a happy future”, “the West will help us”, “Europe is waiting”, “the Turks will come and pile on the Russians now” - they always end up broken trough and stuffed face.
Turkish interest
Here I must say the following. The Turks, despite the obvious course towards strengthening relations with Russia and their deepening split in relations with the United States, intensified after the unsuccessful coup 2016 against Erdogan, organized by the United States and the "old European" powers, have their own interests in Syria and their vision of post-war Syria. Yes, the Turks have already said goodbye to the dreams of the annexation of a number of Syrian territories or the formation there of some kind of stable analogue of the DPR / LPR (the stability of which is guaranteed, of course, by whom and by what), or the Republic of Northern Cyprus (with Turkish AK as a guarantor ) Officially, they are all champions of the territorial integrity of Syria, and here they have no disagreements with Moscow. And they even actively oppose the Americans, who are quietly trying to blind some kind of pseudo-statehood from the Kurds to the Euphrates, though, at the same time, gradually surrendering these Kurds, like glass containers in Soviet times, to Russians and Turks. The Turks know the Kurds as flaky, for centuries the Sultans have been executors of the most dirty and bloody plans, and they do not need their statehood in any form. However, no one in the region needs the Kurdish state at all, and the point is not even the loss of important territories - simply nothing good will come of this venture.
But the Turks have their own motives in the Idlib party. Turks really do not want to fend off hordes of bearded or freshly shaven refugees who can do nothing but kill and rob at the border. They need them in Syria, they need them in Europe (since the Turks themselves do not take them to the EU), they will go to hell, but not in Turkey. Erdogan has not yet lost his mind - to welcome such guests. The Turks would very much like for some of the militants, those who are not included in the list of "official" terrorist groups, to live to see a future peace settlement. Once upon a time, it will be - any war ends in peace, and a war with signs of both external intervention and civilian, and Syrian just such, should end in peace with those defeated who reached out to him. Because you will not kill everyone, and especially you will not kill the families of the vanquished. Therefore, some kind of mechanism for incorporating the remnants of the winners conquered into society is always practically needed - as a guarantee that not everything will start again soon again, and if it does, it will not be so soon.
The Turks would like their former or current proteges to have some rights in the future federal Syrian Constitution. They need some influence on these clans, they need to participate in the post-war reconstruction, in general, they need gesheft. But the Turks will not let much more valuable projects with Russia, such as pipelines, nuclear power plants, the purchase of air defense systems and fighters, and much more, go under the knife. Not under the current government, especially since it has already been burned. And today's Ankara played into confrontation with Russia, and became convinced how beautiful it was, how it smelled of kerosene, dear NATO partners threw it, and also arranged a coup later. A recent story with C-400 and F-35 became the final, fattest piece of meat on the platter with the pilaf that Mr. Erdogan ate. But they can try to outwit in some aspects - this is normal. Sitting at a party at a feast, put your wallet under yourself ...
Russia has its own vision of the future of Syria and this is normal
Russia, in general, understands these reasons, but it is in our interests to reduce this future influence to statistically insignificant. By the way, we also need Iranian influence in post-war Syria in much the same way as elk boots. Despite the allied relations with Iran in Syria, we clearly do not want Iran to have comparable influence with us there after the war. In the words of the heroes of one famous series about St. Petersburg cops - "this is our cow and we milk it." We have done the most for the victory of Damascus and have every right to take advantage of most of its future fruits, without forgetting, of course, about the rest - we, tea, are not Americans.
Therefore, we cooperate with the Turks in Syria, but we do not stop at such “thick hints” to our Turkish partners when they swim behind the buoys. This is not the first case - after all, there were artillery and air strikes against the Turks before, including from the Syrian side and from ours, and although they were declared random, not everyone could be such.
The fact that we are strengthening relations with the Turks does not mean that we fully trust them. In the East they say that you can trust a Turk if you hold a dagger near his throat. There are enough such sayings about almost all the local nations and nationalities - that’s the mentality, but the Turks, by virtue of their history, will only yield to the Kurds in terms of "popularity". Armenians say that if you are dealing with a Turk, then hold the stick in your hands, the Assyrians also have interesting proverbs about the Turks and so on. It is foolish to think that the Kremlin does not know all this and that they completely believe in Turkey. They do not believe anyone, in international politics, even with close allies, the principle of "trust, but verify." The fact that Turkey has its own interests in Syria and they do not always coincide with ours is not a reason to quarrel with Turkey and not to cooperate systematically in other aspects, and in Syria, limiting such attempts to unite when necessary. In addition, the game with Turkey has been designed for a long time, and one of its possible options is to split this country from NATO, or the NATO military organization, as it happens. Or a split only de facto. Now it doesn’t seem as fantastic as it was a few years ago, and the “American partners” help a lot here with their club policies regarding Ankara.
The world is harder than it seems from the couch
We live in a world that is not strictly divided into black and white, it has many “shades of gray” in politics. Countries that are close friends or allies, such as Russia and China, may well not agree on opinions or desires in some matters. It is normal, as it is normal for spouses to have different tastes and interests, respecting them. If we need other countries to agree with us on all issues, we need to have not allies, friends, partners, but slaves and dependent satellites. But this, Shurik, is not our method. Yes, and slaves tend to periodically fool the master - we look at the actions of Ukraine in relation to the United States, for example, in matters of the election campaign in the "host country".
Speaking of the convoy itself, one more thing to note. Turkey is not a single and tightly managed state. There was always a fair mess and different structures and circles pulling the blanket in different directions. And even after the purges that followed the coup, when Erdogan cleaned out everywhere “pro-Westerners” and people of a pro-American orientation, especially, there are enough circles in the army and special services that have their own gesheft and bandits in Syria, and their interests that diverge from Erdogan’s wishes and his people. And the army still lacks an audience that sympathizes with the Syrian bandits. AND weapons they can feed from warehouses even without the sanction of Ankara. So attempts to “help the brothers” might not have sanctioned from the very top. There is another option - the convoy was authorized from above and was such a kind of "bone that was thrown to a dead dog yesterday." That is, “help came out” even when it was clear that she couldn’t get there anymore, they cut the track or cut it just about and they won’t let it pass (and the command of our group contacts the Turks and probably made it clear), and stopped right away , as there was reason to stop. Like, they wanted to help, and it didn’t work out. Excuse me. As was the case in the famous Odessa joke about a letter that ended with the words "I wanted to send you 500 rubles, but the trouble is - I sealed the envelope." But rather, nevertheless, the Turks did not plan anything but transferring the NP from under Morek to Khan Sheikhun.
In general, the East, as you know, is a delicate matter, our world is complex, and we should not try to drive any action of any country into the “ours-not ours” template.
Information