Rakhmon in negotiations with Russia risks to outwit himself. Militants already at his gate
Recent reports indicate that Russia is not yet able to overcome differences with Tajikistan regarding the extension of the lease dates for the military base on its territory. Emomali Rakhmon puts forward “unacceptable demands,” hinting at similar proposals from the United States. Meanwhile, Russia is in no hurry to make concessions, directly pointing out that Tajikistan needs our military base no less than we do. According to the latest data, militant groups from Pakistan and Afghanistan are joining the Tajik-Afghan border, and tension in the region is growing.Come on baksheesh!
The protracted bargaining over the fate of the 201 of the Russian military base has repeatedly become the subject of our reviews, as one of the indicators of Russia's influence in Central Asia. It seemed that the matter got off the ground, when D. Medvedev after his visit to Tajikistan (as president of the Russian Federation), said that the agreement would be signed before March 2012 of the year. However, this did not happen. The subsequent visit to the republic of S. Lavrov did not bring any results either.
Now the situation is not only not resolved, but also seems to have come to a new dead end. Recently, the Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces of Russia, Vladimir Chirkin, declared this openly and added that the “tug of war” was underway: the Tajik side proposes to reduce the length of stay of the Russian base from 49 to 10 years, and also establish the procedure for compensated stay of the Russian troops. Along with this, Chirkin noted that “due to the predicted aggravation of interstate contradictions in the sphere of energy, water and land use in the countries of Central Asia, local armed conflicts may arise with the participation of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.”
Such a frank statement caused outrage in the Ministry of Defense of Tajikistan, which called it "politically incorrect."
But, apparently, the words of Chirkin accurately reflected the position of Russia, which realized that the time for refined diplomacy had passed, and the question arose squarely. Following the verbal squabble, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stopped financing projects aimed at developing the 201 base. The logic of the department is clear - why invest in the construction of infrastructure, if after two years you have to leave the base to Tajikistan?
Recall that in the territory of Tajikistan there is the largest Russian land overseas 201 military base. The Russian military is deployed in the cities of Dushanbe, Kulyab and Kurgan-Tyube. In addition, in Tajikistan there is an object of the troops of the Aerospace Defense of Russia - a unique optical-electronic complex "Window".
The lease term of the Russian military base in Tajikistan expires in 2014 and coincides with the planned completion of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. In this regard, the leadership of Tajikistan, despite its total dependence on the supply of Russian hydrocarbons, is trying to bargain rent from our country.
“Half past one” for Rakhmon
In the protracted dispute, the Russian side points out that Tajikistan and Rakhmon personally have a vital interest in maintaining the presence of the Russian military.
“The military presence in Tajikistan of the 201 of the Russian division is a deterrent for extremists and a guarantee of security for Dushanbe,” said D. Rogozin, adding that the obstinacy of Tajikistan is due to the indirect influence of NATO, “After the withdrawal of the NATO group from Afghanistan, the situation I hope that it will change, but so far the presence of this factor creates a field of instability and unpredictability of the behavior of some of our partners. ”
“I can say one thing: this base for Tajikistan may be of much greater interest than for Russia,” said Konstantin Biryulin, deputy director of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said, “Today it’s very difficult in Central Asia. Americans leave Afghanistan, how events will develop at this point on Earth - it is very difficult to predict "
However, so far most of the forecasts indicate that the withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan guarantees the strengthening of the positions of radical groups throughout Central Asia. In this case, Rakhmon and his Kyrgyz counterpart, Atambaev and Karimov, who, however, has already hurried to make a bet on the Americans, having left the CSTO, will be hit. That is why the Russian military base in Tajikistan is an outpost that is of great importance both for Rakhmon and for us.
Today's bargaining between Rakhmon and Russia threatens to put him in the position of a boy from a famous anecdote who exchanged a pistol for a beautiful watch: “Aslan will come to you, and what will you tell him? Half past one?".
On the border of the clouds walk gloomily ...
Rahmon has something to think about right now. According to the Afghan security service at the Afghan-Tajik border, a group of fighters up to 200 were concentrated in the remote Varzich gorge.
The Taliban, the Ansorulloh and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) militants in the multinational group include Afghans, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Chechens.
A few more groups settled near the Kyrgyz border, where they prepared warehouses with weapons and ammunition.
Such a redeployment has already caused a reaction from Tajikistan, which began major military exercises, which will last until 10 June. However, exercises are hardly capable of leveling the growing threat in the Afghan direction.
There is an opinion that the concentration of militants on the border is explained by their preparation for attacks on NATO convoys following the Northern distribution network through the Central Asian republics. However, we already know that Pakistan, which gave the US the go-ahead for transit through its territory, will significantly reduce the volume of cargo transported along this route. This means that the task area facing the militants in Central Asia is much more extensive.
This situation is well recognized and our Ministry of Defense, probably, the awareness of its acuteness, dictated a sharp change in tone in the protracted negotiations with Rakhmon. Deadlines are tightened, the threats are growing, and the time for the ornate time is over.
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