Does Putin sleep at night? Russia's future is at stake
Project "ZZ". Opposition protests - a bursting abscess that exposed the previously hidden crisis of power. No one could predict a protest of such power. The foreign press speaks of the beginning of the revolutionary situation in Russia and that the fate of Putin may become a parallel to the fate of Khrushchev. Analysts also write about the problems that the unpopular pension reform does not solve, about the desire of 1 / 5 of some Russians to go abroad, and about the decrease in the influence of state TV on the minds of citizens of the Russian Federation.
A wave of Moscow protests in which "tens of thousands of people" participated, says D. Zheng in the publication L'Opinion, does not cease, despite "the strict warning of the mayor of the capital, Sergei Sobyanin, a close friend of Vladimir Putin." The Kremlin "remains silent." Meanwhile, Russia has not seen such large, large demonstrations since the end of 2011 and 2012.
An independent political scientist Abbas Galliamov sheds light on the situation.
According to him, the current crisis is not local, but federal, and the elections to the Moscow City Duma were just a trigger for breaking through the “hidden crisis”. As in the case of journalist Golunov, “no one expected such a powerful mobilization of civil society,” the expert notes.
In his opinion, the true cause of social discontent "is actually much deeper than it seems." Russian voters are increasingly disappointed with the "regime." They demand that their voices be counted and their opinions heard.
If before citizens demanded something other than power, now they demand just power. The political scientist singled out a number of stages on the way to this fight: in March 2017, on the protests that followed the publication of Alexei Navalny's "about the secret possessions of Dmitry Medvedev", those who went out on the street asked Putin to "rid the system of corrupt officials"; in April 2018 of the year, after blocking the Telegram messenger, the street demanded “more freedom of speech”; a little later, in the summer of that year, the protesters wanted Putin to cancel the pension reform. Finally, in June 2019, police officers who unreasonably arrested journalist Golunov were suspended and brought to trial. Today, an “existential question has arisen: who should rule the country?” “Protesters are tired of authoritarianism,” the expert summarizes.
Meanwhile, the attitude of the population towards Putin is “rather complicated”. According to the latest poll published by the Opinion Foundation Foundation on 8 on August, the actions of the President of the Russian Federation today endorse 60% of Russians, but Putin would have received only 43% of the vote, and this is the lowest level since 2001. The expert comes to the following conclusion: people don’t they reject Putin completely, but they no longer feel happy with him; they want change, realizing that Putin "will never change."
Raising the retirement age in Russia did not solve the problems of the pension system, but only allowed to postpone their consideration. About this writes A. Manuylova on the site eurasianet.org.
A year has passed after raising the retirement age. According to the financial ombudsman of Russia, Yuri Voronin, who is quoted by the author of the article, raising the retirement age did not solve a single problem that the pension system faces. This only allowed to postpone their consideration.
According to Mr. Voronin, the issue of reducing the number of payers of pension contributions while increasing the number of pensioners is being addressed in a more productive way: productivity growth and an increase in wages in the labor market should be achieved.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, now about half of Russian workers receive a salary of less than thirty-four thousand rubles. Following the results of last year, the Russian Federation took the 67 place in the world salary rating compiled by the International Labor Organization (ILO).
Yevgeny Yakushev, General Director of the consulting company Pension and Actuarial Consultations, notes that over the past fifteen years, the Russian government has changed the working conditions of the pension system so many times that the population has lost confidence in this system. Citizens prefer to "live here and now," said the expert:
According to the expert, further changes may meet even more dissatisfaction of Russians and lead to new protests.
Along with the pension system, Russian state television is losing confidence.
Report on the Russian media landscape of 2019 of the year Levada Center showed where Russian citizens get information about events. The report revealed changes in consumption News. Over the past ten to twenty years, the decline of television has continued, and the importance of the Internet is growing.
This does not mean that TV has completely lost its position. No, television is still the main source of information for many Russians. But the tendency to reduce the audience is evident: 10 years ago, information on TV was received by 94% of Russians, and today - 72%. At the same time, confidence in TV as a source of news is falling. The confidence indicator over the past few years has remained near the level of 55%. 10 years ago, about 80% of the population expressed confidence in TV as a source of news. But the Internet, with its social networks as a source of news, has become ahead of all other sources except television. In ten years, the corresponding audience has tripled: from 9% to 1 / 3 of the population.
A drop in confidence in television is “bad news for Russian leader Vladimir Putin,” notes eurasianet.org.
Over the past twenty years, “the Putin regime has actively used state-controlled television channels to shape Russian public opinion,” as well as “providing support for its political agenda,” the newspaper notes.
Amid falling confidence in television at a "record" pace, the number of those who want to leave the country and go to the West is growing.
F. Kravacek, Art. researcher at the Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) in Berlin, and G. Sasse, research director at ZOiS, told Washington Post about a "record" twenty percent of Russia's population wishing to leave the country.
20% is the latest Gallup poll data. Moreover, among the young people surveyed, the indicator is much higher: of those who are from 15 to 29 years old, 44% want to emigrate.
Where are they going? Two directions are leading: Germany (15%) and the United States (12%).
Migration intentions, of course, are not the same as the actual departure from the country, the experts noted. Nevertheless, the answers "illustrate the widespread discontent in Russia about the current state of affairs in the country." Moreover, it was young people who were “at the forefront of recent protests in Moscow, demanding that independent and opposition candidates be allowed to participate in local elections.”
A survey was also conducted at the Center for East European and International Studies in 2018. It focused on the younger generation (people aged 16 to 34 years old). That online survey covered 2000 respondents living in 15 cities of the Russian Federation with a population of 1 million people. or more.
In the ZOiS survey, 54% of respondents expressed their intention to migrate. Of these, exactly half, 50 percent, consider moving within the Russian Federation, 21 percent suggest moving to a European Union country, and 7 percent intend to leave for the United States.
The analysis showed that young Russians who would like to leave for the EU were much less likely to vote for Vladimir Putin and, as a rule, live in Moscow or St. Petersburg, cities with international relations. On the contrary, those who have little or no transnational ties limited their migration intentions to the territory of the Russian Federation.
“The results of the survey,” the co-authors write, “indicate changes in Russian society that are likely to require a reaction from the political regime.” Young Russians across the country are increasingly turning away "from poorly paid jobs in the public sector" and "playing a very prominent role in the ongoing protests ahead of the local elections in Moscow."
What will lead to protests and distrust of the authorities?
Nina L. Khrushcheva, the great-granddaughter of that same Nikita Sergeevich, professor of international relations at New School University (New York), on the website Project Syndicate drew a probable parallel between the fate of N. S. Khrushchev and V. V. Putin.
Comparing street protests in Hong Kong and Moscow, Khrushchev came to the conclusion that the "authoritarian duet" of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is scared. According to the researcher, "the Moscow protests, the largest in many years, must have kept Putin from sleeping at night." Otherwise, the protesters "would not have been dispersed with such relentless cruelty." Instead of dialogue with people, Putin demonstrates that he “controls everything,” Khrushchev writes.
People’s appearance on the streets was “a sharp sign of Putin’s declining popularity, including among the Russian elite, whose views matter, unlike other forms of public opinion.”
“For two decades, rival factions of the Russian elite have generally regarded Putin as the main guarantor of their interests, primarily financial interests,” the author notes. However, the Russian economy plunged into stagnation caused by sanctions, and Putin’s government no longer provides its former protection. Fewer and fewer Russians admit that "Putin is Russia, and Russia is Putin." Putin's hope that Donald Trump will improve relations with Russia looks short-sighted. Russian elites are aware that their country is poorly prepared for victory in the nuclear arms race with the United States - the Soviet Union was just as poorly prepared in previous decades, says a professor at the New School. “The recent explosion of a nuclear rocket engine at a test site on the northern Arctic coast of Russia is a gloomy reminder of deep incompetence,” Khrushchev argues. Finally, unlike Putin, "Russian elites are deeply concerned that alienation from the US will turn Russia de facto into a vassal state with respect to China."
The outside world can assume, the author continues, that the Kremlin is subordinate to Putin, and the top leadership of China is subordinate to Xi. However, many thought the same thing about the Soviet Politburo and Nikita Khrushchev in the 1964 year. But Khrushchev was removed from his post at the end of that year.
Today, no leader can be sure, the author concludes, that he will avoid the fate of Khrushchev.
Analysts and experts have gathered a heap of signs of a revolutionary situation in Russia. Excited elites to whom Putin no longer seems a sufficient guarantor; the people who are less and less liking state television channels and more and more social networks are also concerned. Tests in Moscow attract tens of thousands of people, and young people indicate their intention to emigrate from the country. Of course, so far this is only an intention. But what will happen tomorrow?
Federal crisis
A wave of Moscow protests in which "tens of thousands of people" participated, says D. Zheng in the publication L'Opinion, does not cease, despite "the strict warning of the mayor of the capital, Sergei Sobyanin, a close friend of Vladimir Putin." The Kremlin "remains silent." Meanwhile, Russia has not seen such large, large demonstrations since the end of 2011 and 2012.
An independent political scientist Abbas Galliamov sheds light on the situation.
According to him, the current crisis is not local, but federal, and the elections to the Moscow City Duma were just a trigger for breaking through the “hidden crisis”. As in the case of journalist Golunov, “no one expected such a powerful mobilization of civil society,” the expert notes.
In his opinion, the true cause of social discontent "is actually much deeper than it seems." Russian voters are increasingly disappointed with the "regime." They demand that their voices be counted and their opinions heard.
“This is a popular struggle for democracy. We are witnesses of the beginning of the revolution. ”
If before citizens demanded something other than power, now they demand just power. The political scientist singled out a number of stages on the way to this fight: in March 2017, on the protests that followed the publication of Alexei Navalny's "about the secret possessions of Dmitry Medvedev", those who went out on the street asked Putin to "rid the system of corrupt officials"; in April 2018 of the year, after blocking the Telegram messenger, the street demanded “more freedom of speech”; a little later, in the summer of that year, the protesters wanted Putin to cancel the pension reform. Finally, in June 2019, police officers who unreasonably arrested journalist Golunov were suspended and brought to trial. Today, an “existential question has arisen: who should rule the country?” “Protesters are tired of authoritarianism,” the expert summarizes.
Meanwhile, the attitude of the population towards Putin is “rather complicated”. According to the latest poll published by the Opinion Foundation Foundation on 8 on August, the actions of the President of the Russian Federation today endorse 60% of Russians, but Putin would have received only 43% of the vote, and this is the lowest level since 2001. The expert comes to the following conclusion: people don’t they reject Putin completely, but they no longer feel happy with him; they want change, realizing that Putin "will never change."
Lost trust
Raising the retirement age in Russia did not solve the problems of the pension system, but only allowed to postpone their consideration. About this writes A. Manuylova on the site eurasianet.org.
A year has passed after raising the retirement age. According to the financial ombudsman of Russia, Yuri Voronin, who is quoted by the author of the article, raising the retirement age did not solve a single problem that the pension system faces. This only allowed to postpone their consideration.
“By increasing the retirement age, it is impossible to reduce the state’s accumulated pension obligations to a person - it’s just that their fulfillment is postponed in time, and by the time he retires, he will have to pay more.”
According to Mr. Voronin, the issue of reducing the number of payers of pension contributions while increasing the number of pensioners is being addressed in a more productive way: productivity growth and an increase in wages in the labor market should be achieved.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, now about half of Russian workers receive a salary of less than thirty-four thousand rubles. Following the results of last year, the Russian Federation took the 67 place in the world salary rating compiled by the International Labor Organization (ILO).
Yevgeny Yakushev, General Director of the consulting company Pension and Actuarial Consultations, notes that over the past fifteen years, the Russian government has changed the working conditions of the pension system so many times that the population has lost confidence in this system. Citizens prefer to "live here and now," said the expert:
“It has become the norm when a significant part of the population tries not to pay or minimize insurance premiums, preferring to live here and now.”
According to the expert, further changes may meet even more dissatisfaction of Russians and lead to new protests.
Life is wider than TV
Along with the pension system, Russian state television is losing confidence.
Report on the Russian media landscape of 2019 of the year Levada Center showed where Russian citizens get information about events. The report revealed changes in consumption News. Over the past ten to twenty years, the decline of television has continued, and the importance of the Internet is growing.
This does not mean that TV has completely lost its position. No, television is still the main source of information for many Russians. But the tendency to reduce the audience is evident: 10 years ago, information on TV was received by 94% of Russians, and today - 72%. At the same time, confidence in TV as a source of news is falling. The confidence indicator over the past few years has remained near the level of 55%. 10 years ago, about 80% of the population expressed confidence in TV as a source of news. But the Internet, with its social networks as a source of news, has become ahead of all other sources except television. In ten years, the corresponding audience has tripled: from 9% to 1 / 3 of the population.
A drop in confidence in television is “bad news for Russian leader Vladimir Putin,” notes eurasianet.org.
Over the past twenty years, “the Putin regime has actively used state-controlled television channels to shape Russian public opinion,” as well as “providing support for its political agenda,” the newspaper notes.
Where to go ... to leave
Amid falling confidence in television at a "record" pace, the number of those who want to leave the country and go to the West is growing.
F. Kravacek, Art. researcher at the Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) in Berlin, and G. Sasse, research director at ZOiS, told Washington Post about a "record" twenty percent of Russia's population wishing to leave the country.
20% is the latest Gallup poll data. Moreover, among the young people surveyed, the indicator is much higher: of those who are from 15 to 29 years old, 44% want to emigrate.
Where are they going? Two directions are leading: Germany (15%) and the United States (12%).
Migration intentions, of course, are not the same as the actual departure from the country, the experts noted. Nevertheless, the answers "illustrate the widespread discontent in Russia about the current state of affairs in the country." Moreover, it was young people who were “at the forefront of recent protests in Moscow, demanding that independent and opposition candidates be allowed to participate in local elections.”
A survey was also conducted at the Center for East European and International Studies in 2018. It focused on the younger generation (people aged 16 to 34 years old). That online survey covered 2000 respondents living in 15 cities of the Russian Federation with a population of 1 million people. or more.
In the ZOiS survey, 54% of respondents expressed their intention to migrate. Of these, exactly half, 50 percent, consider moving within the Russian Federation, 21 percent suggest moving to a European Union country, and 7 percent intend to leave for the United States.
The analysis showed that young Russians who would like to leave for the EU were much less likely to vote for Vladimir Putin and, as a rule, live in Moscow or St. Petersburg, cities with international relations. On the contrary, those who have little or no transnational ties limited their migration intentions to the territory of the Russian Federation.
“The results of the survey,” the co-authors write, “indicate changes in Russian society that are likely to require a reaction from the political regime.” Young Russians across the country are increasingly turning away "from poorly paid jobs in the public sector" and "playing a very prominent role in the ongoing protests ahead of the local elections in Moscow."
The future is at stake
What will lead to protests and distrust of the authorities?
Nina L. Khrushcheva, the great-granddaughter of that same Nikita Sergeevich, professor of international relations at New School University (New York), on the website Project Syndicate drew a probable parallel between the fate of N. S. Khrushchev and V. V. Putin.
Comparing street protests in Hong Kong and Moscow, Khrushchev came to the conclusion that the "authoritarian duet" of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is scared. According to the researcher, "the Moscow protests, the largest in many years, must have kept Putin from sleeping at night." Otherwise, the protesters "would not have been dispersed with such relentless cruelty." Instead of dialogue with people, Putin demonstrates that he “controls everything,” Khrushchev writes.
People’s appearance on the streets was “a sharp sign of Putin’s declining popularity, including among the Russian elite, whose views matter, unlike other forms of public opinion.”
“For two decades, rival factions of the Russian elite have generally regarded Putin as the main guarantor of their interests, primarily financial interests,” the author notes. However, the Russian economy plunged into stagnation caused by sanctions, and Putin’s government no longer provides its former protection. Fewer and fewer Russians admit that "Putin is Russia, and Russia is Putin." Putin's hope that Donald Trump will improve relations with Russia looks short-sighted. Russian elites are aware that their country is poorly prepared for victory in the nuclear arms race with the United States - the Soviet Union was just as poorly prepared in previous decades, says a professor at the New School. “The recent explosion of a nuclear rocket engine at a test site on the northern Arctic coast of Russia is a gloomy reminder of deep incompetence,” Khrushchev argues. Finally, unlike Putin, "Russian elites are deeply concerned that alienation from the US will turn Russia de facto into a vassal state with respect to China."
The outside world can assume, the author continues, that the Kremlin is subordinate to Putin, and the top leadership of China is subordinate to Xi. However, many thought the same thing about the Soviet Politburo and Nikita Khrushchev in the 1964 year. But Khrushchev was removed from his post at the end of that year.
Today, no leader can be sure, the author concludes, that he will avoid the fate of Khrushchev.
* * *
Analysts and experts have gathered a heap of signs of a revolutionary situation in Russia. Excited elites to whom Putin no longer seems a sufficient guarantor; the people who are less and less liking state television channels and more and more social networks are also concerned. Tests in Moscow attract tens of thousands of people, and young people indicate their intention to emigrate from the country. Of course, so far this is only an intention. But what will happen tomorrow?
Information