Rusty pipe of Beltransgaz
Ukraine example
Almost everyone in Russia is tired of the long-playing story with the Ukrainian GTS. It is not tired, not tired, but literally pissed off. Any news about gas transit cause an exclusively nervous tick: that's enough! That is, the attitude to the topic is not just hostile, but beyond all reasonable limits. Nobody wants to discuss it, or even remember.
“Nord Stream-1”, “Nord Stream-2”, “Turkish Stream” - they all cost huge money, are incredibly difficult to lay from a political point of view, have met massive resistance from the Americans and their European "friends", in short - a whole saga. The whole epic. A kind of absurd epic. If anyone does not remember, then the Ukrainian gas transportation system allowed exporting gas to Europe directly without any such bunting.
That is, purely theoretically, this whole circus with horses, merkel and Erdogans was not needed by anyone and for nothing. Why redo what works so well? Once again: the Ukrainian GTS removed all these problems. There was only one problem - Ukrainian politicians. Rather, their complete and absolute lack of maturity. In principle, the fact that in the end the Europeans themselves were actively "harnessed" to the project of bypass pipelines, testifies to a lot. That is, in the end, even it became clear to Europe that porridge could not be cooked with Ukraine. The "civilized countries" (including Turkey) made tremendous efforts to go around the "most European power."
By the way, from this very saga about a gas pipe, you can draw some general conclusions about the prospects of the country Ukraine. If, in such an extremely winning situation, the Ukrainian elites managed to do so, then what can we say about more competitive projects? In general, the GTS for independent Kiev was a gift from the gods. Billions for no reason. Take and store. But the level of civilizational development of Ukraine was such that even in this situation, success was not achieved in any way.
Ukraine began to steal gas and engage in gas blackmail. In the short term, it looked very, very powerful, but in the long term it led to the current situation, when “unheated” European citizens take to the streets of even Kiev (!) Almost at the same time, because of the high cost of gas in Ukraine, the industry stands up. giants, and in Turkey Herr Miller solemnly launches the Turkish Stream. Civilization (like industry) is leaving Ukraine.
The heroic Naftogaz sues to the last and demands billions and tens of billions from Gazprom, which, incidentally, proves once again that it is with Ukraine no affairs can not be fundamentally. None at all. Forget about this country. So these are already really phantom pains - a lot of gas leaves Ukraine forever (as, indeed, big industry). And finally, (quite the last one!) Attempts are being made to at least “snatch” something from the bad Gazprom ...
By the way, why do not include heating in all Ukrainian cities? And everything is very simple: before, energy in general and heating in particular were tied to a very, very powerful industry, and this very industry was tied to Russia in the same way. There is no relationship with Russia, no industry, no central heating. And this is forever.
True, this is inconvenient, Ukrainian politicians do not need it, therefore they have been silent about it all this time. Because the "terrible truth" that the temperature of batteries in the homes of Ukrainians depends on the warmth of relations with Moscow is absolutely unacceptable, categorically. No, no and NO! That is, both industry (Soviet!) And the pipe laid under the USSR already took place at the time of independence. They did not need to be created. They just needed to be used.
The sale of the pipe to Gazprom gave a full guarantee that gas would flow through Ukraine very long. But this very pipe was declared a national treasure. And Ukrainians estimated it almost in 200 of billions of dollars (modestly so). Now the matter is that it will be “sold” at the price of scrap metal. That is, almost no one needs it.
Unsuccessful sale of Beltransgaz
With Beltransgaz it turned out no less interesting. So he was just sold to Gazprom. And this just guaranteed the transit of gas through Belarus. And stable budget revenues and complete clarity on the issue of pipe loading. But for some reason this did not cause joy in Belarus. Beltransgaz was finally sold back in the distant 2011 year, but Lukashenko still loves to recall this as an obvious failure. Regularly they reproach him with the sale of a “rusty pipe”. Regularly.
This fact itself (against the very obvious background of the gradual cessation of transit through Ukraine) makes one seriously doubt not some brotherly feelings there, but simply the adequacy of the perception of reality from our closest neighbors in the West. They had a clear example of a conflict between Russia and Lithuania (about an oil refinery!) And as a result - stopping oil supplies to Lithuania by pipeline. Proud and independent Lithuania categorically refused to sell refineries to Russians and was left without pipeline oil. On the other oil, the refinery in Mazeikiai is unprofitable. So it goes. But the Russians still did not sell it. It was a political decision.
But to the Poles (who have no oil) - please!
And against the backdrop of all this “grandeur” (both from the north and the south), Belarusians sincerely regret the “sale of the pipe”. The general opinion: this decision was erroneous, and, as already mentioned, Lukashenko is constantly reproached with this. Interestingly, there is a lot of talk in the press about some kind of “economic cooperation” with Belarus, but somehow I have not seen any real examples of large joint successful projects. I haven’t met - that's all. The combination of MAZ and KamAZ was absolutely necessary for the first to survive.
In general, the “superprofitability” of Soviet industrial giants in the market environment of the author (due to professional experience) has always raised great doubts. Not everything is so simple there. And MAZ is not Klondike at all. Never a Klondike. Huge areas, outdated equipment, ancient technologies. The market is almost exclusively in Russia ... And where is Klondike?
But the welfare of very, very many Belarusians (taking into account allies) is tied to MAZ. However, the "unification" did not take place. The logic is this: factories should unite, unite, unite ... but MAZ should remain Belarusian! On this condition, unification is possible. It’s quite ...
Well, tell me about some joint projects ... I’ll listen. That is, in fact, this very “sale” was quite unique. A rare example when something worked. But this particular example is extremely unloved by all Belarusians, without exception. 25 November 2011 year, for 2,5 billion dollars. The first 50 percent was acquired in 2007 for the same amount. Total - 5 billion. Dollars. This money was received by the Belarusian state and spent by it.
And now, many Belarusians are very sorry about this. No, not about money, of course, but about the pipe. Which has long been sold. As if 7 years had passed since the last deal, but no - they are scared. And Lukashenko is remembered with an unkind word. There is still some interesting point to note: in fact, the extraction and transportation of energy resources from the Arctic and Siberia is very difficult and quite expensive. And even maintaining the pipe in working condition costs a lot of money. The fact that the Ukrainian GTS is worn out by 80 percentages is somehow little known. That is, the “non-fallow” state actively fed from it, but practically did not invest money in it.
And in fact, we have a classic parasite feeding scheme. Over the years of blessed independence, the country of Ukraine has not only not created anything new, it has completely used up the Soviet infrastructure. And to repair the very GTS, it was supposed to create some kind of international consortium with the participation of the West, but without the participation of Russia, somehow.
And somehow it’s kindly forgotten that pipelines are not eternal and money is needed for their maintenance. It’s difficult to maintain and expensive. That is, if today Gazprom owns Belarusian gas pipelines, it repairs itself, it is scary to imagine what would happen if they remained in the ownership of the “most efficient owner” - the Belarusian state. Which today is a chronic bankrupt. That is, you must understand that in order to maintain the very gas transportation infrastructure at the same time, you may need quite serious money - tens of millions of dollars. So you live so cool ...
We can assume that, having brought the condition of the pipe to the last limit, the Old Man would have started the next round of political games and asking for money from Moscow. Do you want to sell your gas to Europe? Anyone who is familiar with the features of the “Belarusian political hunt” will confirm this. No one would invest in repairing a pipe through which "criminal Russian oligarchs" drive their gas to Europe.
At first, everything would be "good." All questions about the state of the GTS would be answered by the answer that it is in perfect order. And one fine day ... Lukashenka’s never "just differently" ever. Today, Belarus is a “pure beneficiary”. Where to get the gas from and how to repair the pipe is not her question. Her question is only to receive gas at a discount and money for transit. But people are categorically unhappy ...
And where do we cooperate?
That is, this very diverse pipe is just a rare (almost exceptional!) Example of a large successful business in Belarus. A characteristic feature is that this GTS has nothing to do with the Republic of Belarus and the Belarusian managers (the most efficient in the world) are simply not allowed to take a cannon shot at it. Therefore, everything works like a Swiss watch.
Due to historical (and technological) reasons, Belarusian industry was interesting primarily to Russia (but not to Europe!). So, the "father" did all it depends on him to “protect” Belarusian industry from the “evil Russian oligarchs”. That is, investors from anywhere were welcomed: from Europe, China, Turkey, but not from Russia ... The trouble is that most of the Belarusian industry (due to historical and technological reasons) is of little interest to foreigners. No, “foreign” investors in Sineokoi also took a sip of grief, but this is another matter.
The fact is that today the economy of the Republic of Belarus is somehow not very “bought up” by the Russians. And this means, oddly enough, that the future of this very Russian economy is not very worrying. Even in Ukraine (in Ukraine, Karl!) The situation was somewhat different - despite open Russophobia (and this was before the second Maidan), there were serious Russian investments. And it was difficult to "leave" from there. That is why. Due to serious investment. It was painful to leave.
With Belarus, the situation is diametrically opposed: they tried to either keep everything “interesting” in state property or sell it to “real foreigners”. That is not there serious Russian business interests ... So that's good, you say. Yes, how to say ... No interests - that means there are no special reasons to worry about the bright future of the Belarusian economy.
After all, the same “MAZ” - its capacities were initially absolutely redundant for a small RB, since they were created under the giant USSR. The giant plant is still a headache from all points of view. If he was owned by the Russian, these would already be the problems of Russian entrepreneurs / state, how to load it with orders and how to update equipment. And so his possible death is a problem only and exclusively of Minsk.
It's time to realize that no one will save at any cost someone else's own. It sounds strange enough, but the leadership of the Republic of Belarus did not get the simple idea that all those large enterprises that were there could normally exist only and exclusively within the USSR. Big markets are needed, serious investments are needed. The attempt to “seize” these enterprises into the ownership of the small Polesie republic and “bury” them was doomed from the very beginning. Yes, the plant itself physically (workshops and machine tools) was located in the BSSR. But only that. Its main, "invisible" part was "spread" throughout the USSR (allies, consumers, the budget of the USSR).
Belarus cannot provide these Soviet industrial enterprises with anything: neither a market, nor investments, nor world-class management. Nothing. As a matter of fact, the complete de-industrialization over the years of the reign of Mr. Lukashenko perfectly confirms this. Strenuous attempts to gain foreign currency loans and modernize the industry centrally to nothing, except for the growth of public debt, have failed. That is, at the beginning of Alexander Grigoryevich’s reign there was a big industry (even in small towns!), But there were no big debts! Belarus was in the black!
After a quarter century of the reign of the one who “has done so much for his country”, industry is no longer there, but the debts are simply prohibitive ... So prohibitive that no one wants to lend anymore. That is, Belarus is in a deep minus. By the way, yes, even Belarusians have already noticed these debts. For some reason, the fact that the fairly modern and expensive industry of the BSSR completely died during this time is noticed much less often (precisely from the macroeconomic point of view, and not from the point of view of employment!).
But together and on the whole, these two facts mean that over the past quarter century, the situation in Belarus has not only worsened, but has worsened catastrophically. And against this background, yes, white is such a stain - Beltransgaz as one of the largest taxpayers in Belarus. A similar situation took place in Ukraine before the 2014. Gazprom and the Black Sea Fleet were two pillars of the Ukrainian budget (for some reason they rarely talk about this). It was Gazprom and the Black Sea Fleet that were among the top payers to the state treasury of Ukraine ... But this did not bring them any respect.
And the Black Sea sailors and gas workers Miller constantly tried to squeeze from the light. They interfered. There is a separate discussion about the Black Sea Fleet, but regarding the GTS, Ukraine managed it so successfully that it will soon go into oblivion ... what a loss! You look at all this and involuntarily ask yourself a question: gentlemen are inseparable, but you yourself can earn somewhere and something? Do you have large incomes that are not connected with Russia? Why are you fooling your population?
That is, in 1991 in the BSSR there was a lot of interesting things, to this day there remained 2 oil refineries (working on Russian oil), Belkali (with incomprehensible profitability) and ... pipe! Everything. In light of recent events, even Belarusian refineries have ceased to be gold-bearing chickens. There is a pipe left ... Do you know arithmetic? A children's riddle riddle about A and B? Now you know the correct answer.
- Oleg Egorov
- 4esnok.by
- Friendship with Minsk on gas
The end of socialism and the end of heating
Peaceful atom for blue-eyed
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