Arms race in Asia. Will the US force Russia and China to create a military alliance?

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The United States intends to deploy new medium and shorter-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. The American leadership is already working on this issue with its allies in East Asia. If the US plans are realized, the missiles will threaten both China and the DPRK, and Russia.

Arms race in Asia. Will the US force Russia and China to create a military alliance?




Missiles in East Asia as New US Plan


The United States started talking about the need to deploy medium and shorter-range missiles in the Pacific almost immediately after the INF Treaty was officially terminated. First, the US ambassador to the Russian Federation, John Huntsman, gave interviewin which he spoke about Washington’s lack of plans to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles in Europe.

Perhaps these words of the ambassador are just an attempt to calm Russia. In the same way, the Americans promised not to expand the North Atlantic Alliance, but in the 1990-2000-years almost all the countries of Eastern Europe and the three former Soviet republics - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - entered NATO. Therefore, the Americans should not be trusted.

But, on the other hand, the ambassador may not have been cunning. The fact is that, shortly before his interview, the recently appointed US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that if medium- and shorter-range missiles are deployed somewhere, then we will talk about East Asia. The United States has long been thinking about reorienting to the Asian direction, since at present the American authorities see China as almost a more important rival than Russia - both economically and politically-politically.


New Pentagon Head Mark Esper


By the way, the deployment of missiles in the Asia-Pacific region allows the United States to confront immediately the three most critically acclaimed states - China, North Korea and Russia, since all these countries have access to the Pacific. The Americans control the Asia-Pacific region less than Europe, and they have far less reliable allies here - only Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Therefore, the Asian direction is of increasing interest to Americans in terms of implementing the strategy of “containment” of Russia and China.

The importance of deploying missiles in the Asia-Pacific region is also explained by the fact that China did not sign the INF Treaty at the time, respectively, and was not limited in the development and deployment of intermediate and shorter-range missiles, unlike the United States. Therefore, now that the INF Treaty has been dissolved, Washington will inevitably want to catch up and create in East Asia a reliable counterbalance system for both China and Russia.

US Allies in the Asia Pacific


During the Cold War, East and Southeast Asia were literally divided into spheres of influence. China stood apart, sponsoring numerous Maoist partisan movements that fought throughout the region — in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Burma. The Soviet Union maintained close ties with the DPRK, Vietnam, and Laos. The orbit of US influence included Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines.

Now the alignment in the Asia-Pacific region has changed somewhat. Firstly, there is Russia, China and the DPRK - these three countries are considered by the American leadership as direct sources of threats to their interests in the Asia-Pacific region.

Secondly, most of the countries of Southeast Asia are now trying to maintain neutrality. For Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Soviet Union represented a danger in the context of its ideological expansion - the elites of these countries were mortally afraid of a repetition of the Vietnamese and Lao scenario.

Now the “communist threat" has passed and the countries of Southeast Asia are quietly trading and cooperating with Russia, the United States, and China. Unless, Chinese ambitions bother them. Vietnam can also be included in the same bloc of countries, which is traditionally close to Russia, but it has difficult relations with China and, surprisingly, it establishes good relations with the United States.

Thirdly, there are several countries - unequivocal allies of the United States. The first place among them in importance is Japan. Although the Land of the Rising Sun is no longer what it was before World War II, its potential should not be discounted. After all, Japan is a technological giant, and simply a strong country with a large population. The second most important US ally is South Korea. It depends on American support against the DPRK and China, and has a large and well-armed army.

Japan and South Korea - like Turkey and Greece in Europe: they seem to be military-political allies, but constantly put forward various claims to each other related to historical insults, territorial disputes, but most of all - with competition in the global and Asian high-tech markets. Finally, the third unequivocal US ally is Taiwan. Its military potential is lower than that of Japan and South Korea, but the island is very significant in the context of the confrontation between the United States and China.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson recently announced that Washington is already discussing with its allies in the Asia-Pacific region the possibility of deploying new missiles directed against China and Russia. Missiles are supposed to be placed on the first line of the Pacific islands.

To deploy missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States will use an iron argument - the need to protect against a potentially dangerous and uncontrolled North Korean regime. But, of course, not the small and closed North Korea is the main goal of the American containment strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Under the pretext of protecting against North Korea, the Americans will send missiles to Russia and China - there is no doubt about that.



As for the bridgeheads for deploying missiles, their quality, first of all, will be Japan and South Korea. These countries are closest to both Russia and China. The islands controlled by Japan and South Korea are very convenient for deploying US missiles and service personnel there.

In addition, it is possible that missiles aimed at China can also be deployed in territories controlled by Vietnam. A few decades ago, the friendship of Washington and Hanoi, after all that the Americans did on Vietnamese soil, was hard to imagine. But historical grievances are gradually passing, and political, military and economic interests remain. Vietnam, realizing that it is difficult for it to confront neighboring China, is now interested in American support.

To confront Russia, the deployment of US missiles in Vietnam is practically useless, but it is just right to contain China. And Hanoi does not seem to offend Moscow, but it makes Beijing understand that it’s not a joke. True, so far these are only assumptions, since the Vietnamese authorities have not concluded any military agreements with the United States on this subject. However, this opportunity is not worth denying.

How China and Russia react


Naturally, the words of American politicians about the possibility of deploying missiles in East Asia were extremely negatively received by official Beijing. China said it would retaliate in the event of US missiles in the region. The need for response in Beijing is justified by the risks to regional and international security that will inevitably follow the deployment of missiles.

In Moscow, US actions are also seen as aimed at undermining the strategic balance prevailing in East Asia. Both China and Russia are particularly worried about the upcoming deployment in South Korea of ​​the high-tech THAAD system designed to intercept ballistic missiles. In April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the United States not to use North Korea’s actions as an excuse to increase the US military presence and military power in Northeast Asia.

The deployment of American THAAD complexes in South Korea will not help achieve denuclearization and protect peace and stability on the peninsula,

- the official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC says.

China, of course, will have to urgently build up its own military assistance, develop and launch new missiles, if the Americans all decide to deploy their missiles in close proximity to Chinese borders.



North Korean authorities are also urging South Korea to reconsider its plans for the admission of US missiles to the peninsula. Indeed, otherwise it would hardly be possible to talk about ending the arms race between the two Koreas.

By the way, do not forget about the population of Japan and South Korea: a significant part of the Japanese and Koreans are very negatively disposed to any American military presence on their territory. It is clear that countries are heavily dependent on the United States, and the Japanese and South Korean elites cannot refuse overseas partners, but it is not easier for ordinary residents to turn into a target for Russian and Chinese missiles if an arms race begins. In Japan, mass protests against the American military presence are constantly taking place.

Is a union of Russia and China possible?


In fact, Americans with their policies in the Asia-Pacific region are pushing Russia and China to create a full-fledged military alliance. In the event of a further buildup of the American military presence in the region, both states will have no other choice. Already, Russia and China are increasingly conducting joint military exercises. Recently, Russian and Chinese military aircraft conducted the first joint air patrol in the last sixty years, which scared both Japan and South Korea very much.

So far, the Chinese nuclear potential is much less significant than that of the United States or Russia. And the Chinese authorities are well aware that so far they alone cannot resist the aggressive American plans in the Asia-Pacific region. Accordingly, for China, the creation of a military-political alliance with Russia seems to be a much more profitable goal than for Russia itself.

Our country should not forget about its own interests, which, even if there are good partnerships with China, are by no means identical with the interests of China itself, but in many ways opposite to them.



For Beijing, the main thing is the assertion of its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region and Central Asia. And if in the south the interests of China conflict with the interests of the United States, supporting Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines, then in the north, China competes not only with the United States or Japan, but also with Russia. Chinese ambitions in the Far East, in Transbaikalia and Altai, in Eastern Siberia are no less significant than in Indochina. And Russia should not forget about this either.

Some analysts, however, adhere to the position that the statements of US officials about the deployment of missiles in East Asia are nothing more than an attempt to force Russia and China to sign a new treaty on intermediate and shorter-range missiles. The former INF Treaty has indeed outlived itself, which, incidentally, has been recognized by the Russian side. A new treaty could well have been concluded between a large number of participants, given that today China and India and Pakistan have similar missiles.
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27 comments
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  1. 0
    19 August 2019 05: 12
    An alliance is possible, but it will be extremely unstable and the very first disagreement or sensation by the Chinese side of the benefit may break up or, moreover, develop into open hostility.
    1. +1
      19 August 2019 13: 01
      Vadim, security interests coincide. The Chinese would have swallowed the Mongols long ago, if you follow your logic.
      China is rapidly developing the Navy. The Russian Federation has an advantage in the Strategic Missile Forces and long-range aviation. Good symbiosis is obtained.
      1. 0
        19 August 2019 15: 28
        The Chinese would have swallowed the Mongols long ago, if you follow your logic.

        It is cold in Mongolia, rice does not grow, potential served are not dense and they are ferocious and impoverished, what the Chinese need, the Mongols themselves drove cheaply, so the Chinese came there only with punitive national liberation goals, with the exception of the Qing period.
      2. dSK
        0
        19 August 2019 15: 35
        A respected journalist would recall how Americans appeared in Korea, in Japan.
        How they appeared in Germany. Russia left it, but they stayed - the result is the whole of Germany in the anti-Russian NATO. And she left Vietnam, too, and perhaps US bases will appear there again. North Korea is still holding on by a miracle; its cunning "partners" have not yet swallowed it.
      3. 0
        20 August 2019 14: 11
        Yes, I agree, as long as the US gives us almost the same pressure, but how will the Americans grow wiser and begin to give China one relief after another?
    2. 0
      19 August 2019 21: 13
      The United States intends to deploy new medium and shorter-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. If the US plans are realized, the missiles will threaten both China and the DPRK, and Russia.

      A priori, conventional missiles cannot threaten either the Russian Federation or China. The Americans do not have nuclear warheads for installation on the BRMD / MRBD and will not appear soon. All the media hype around this topic is solely for "flooding" the internal political problems in the States themselves. The elections are just around the corner, but there have not been any big victories.
      In fact, Americans with their policies in the Asia-Pacific region are pushing Russia and China to create a full-fledged military alliance.

      In fact, a military alliance already has a place to be. The level of trust is such that the Chinese are placing their missile divisions close to the Russian border, right under our air defense / missile defense umbrella (and, if anything, under the blow of our MLRS, they understand this very well, but nevertheless put it). Surely there is an unshuffled interaction with the Navy, especially in its underwater part. However, years may elapse before the formation of a military union de jure. For a number of reasons, this is not a priority.
      1. 0
        21 August 2019 18: 29
        The quality of nuclear submarines is poor. As far as we know, China is working intensively on anti-submarine and air defense of its ships.
  2. 0
    19 August 2019 07: 14
    The world is slowly slipping into the next global division into two camps ... The only question is what line the demarcation will take ...
    1. +1
      19 August 2019 07: 19
      Quote: solovald
      The world is slowly slipping into the next global division into two camps ... The only question is what line the demarcation will take ...

      The world has long been divided into two camps ... Liberals, when the USSR was merged, hoped that they would lead friendship with the USA .. and the USA did not need friends.
      1. dSK
        +1
        19 August 2019 15: 39
        No one likes to be robbed. Everyone resists whenever possible.
    2. 0
      22 August 2019 11: 06
      I think the section will go along the north-west line.
  3. -1
    19 August 2019 07: 22
    Most likely there will be no military alliance between our country and China. Polosatov’s country, not so great as to contain any military alliances to contain it. Yes, and both countries have a good arsenal for self-deterrence. But friendly relations and the exchange of experience between countries can increase.
  4. +1
    19 August 2019 07: 54
    Is a union of Russia and China possible?

    And such an active bonder, of this possible union, rustles with might and main and where a lot! If the stripes don't calm down, everything can be!
  5. +1
    19 August 2019 08: 58
    The danger is that the leadership of the CCP and the owners of the Fed are likely to agree to eliminate the weakest 3 players (the oligarchy of the Russian Federation), so that later they will converge in the Last Battle.
    1. +1
      19 August 2019 10: 58
      Quote: kanskebron
      The danger is that the leadership of the CCP and the owners of the Fed are likely to agree to eliminate the weakest 3 players (the oligarchy of the Russian Federation), so that later they will converge in the Last Battle.

      Not certainly in that way.

      they always try to lead the led ally into battle first.
      and when he fizzles out the cavalry on the white horses comes up and defeats the adversary.
      then books are written and films are made.

      look at least at the 20th century.
      if you study the history of England, so there they have been doing this trick since the time of Elizabeth.
      1. +2
        19 August 2019 15: 19
        they always try to lead the led ally into battle first.

        And who will be the first to send someone into the battle? The owners of the Federal Reserve oligarchy of the Russian Federation against China? Such an idea is possible, given the location of the dough, children, yachts and sweet dreams of the Russian oligarchy, but individuals of the Russian oligarchy, although thieves and traitors, but not kamikaze, given the difference in military and economic potentials of the two countries. The leadership of the CCP will send the battle of the Russian oligarchy against the owners of the Fed? Well, this is pure fantasy, given the above.
    2. dSK
      0
      19 August 2019 15: 52
      Quote: kanskebron
      The danger is that the leadership of the CCP and the owners of the Fed are likely to agree
      Yes, this is the main threat that the first two will "share" the third. This is the "blue" dream of the late Polish-born Jew Brzezinski. But China's leaders still understand that their turn will come later. Because greed has no boundaries ... bully
      1. 0
        19 August 2019 18: 05
        . But the leaders of China so far understand that then their turn will come.

        Of course, they understand, therefore, it is beneficial for them to occupy as much territory as possible with resources, which China does not have so much, because sea shipping routes are extremely vulnerable.
  6. -6
    19 August 2019 09: 54
    There will be a great union of China-Russia-Germany, led by Russia.
    1. +4
      19 August 2019 12: 08
      There will be a great union of China-Russia-Germany, led by Russia.
      We are not needed by the German, and even less so by China.
    2. +1
      19 August 2019 14: 25
      Before the Second World War, this was also said about an alliance with the Germans. But in the end ...
  7. -1
    19 August 2019 12: 55
    The Chinese certainly have a lot of interests, but the Amers have something - they are generally everywhere! All over the planet. And the absence of Russia on the world map is one of the main ..
  8. -3
    19 August 2019 16: 01
    Another bucket of slop. "How good it is to have Chinese friends as a friend!" Of course it's good, only you will have to forget about the Far East and Siberia at least! And even about the Urals! Well, in general, how lucky.
    Here, many come with pink snot and saliva about our "friend" - China.
    "Great! We are pumping modern Russian weapons into our potential enemy. And they will not even let us into Damansky, as occupiers."
    The Chinese are raising their soldiers in hatred of us. Here is a fact for you: a museum in Damansky - Russians are not allowed there !!! You can continue to come out with your pink snot about friendship with the Chinese.
    It's not a sin to repeat the old comment of Old Horseradish. Well, so: the Chinese people consider the Russian occupiers and are not allowed into the museum on Damansky !!!!!
    On Damansky Island there is now a museum of Chinese military glory. Young Chinese come and learn how to fight for their native land (formerly Russian). RUSSIANS AS OCCUPANTS ARE NOT LET'S GO THERE "
    1. -1
      19 August 2019 17: 08
      Quote: Old Fuck
      And they don’t even let us into Damansky, like the invaders.

      Doesn’t it bother that this is the territory of China since 1991? not? Hello to the most democratic policy of your drunk Beni.
      such as you, probably, not only in Damansky, but in general should not be allowed anywhere. Well, only on walks on schedule.
  9. +1
    19 August 2019 17: 17
    "military alliance between Russia and China" sounds ridiculous. China will not agree to this. This is a self-sufficient country that will not break off relations with the United States in the name of Russia. All the disagreements that now exist between China and the United States are temporary, even taking into account the reduction in trade turnover between them is $ 209,68 billion versus 51 billion with Russia (this is already taking into account the growth). And militarily, China has not been inferior to Russia for a long time - why does it need freeloaders?
  10. -3
    19 August 2019 18: 07
    In vain the USA is scared by China missiles .. We in Russia are scared and have something to answer .. I think there will be many surprises for the USA!
    And China, of course, is a powerful country both economically and militarily, but they are weak in geopolitics .. Alone, they will be immediately killed! Their salvation in alliance with Russia ..SSSR created China (in fact, even though Mao lifted his nose), what it is now (military support technology, etc.)
    Anglo-Saxons remember China put on opium, there are full collapse and the robbery was.
    So let them think what awaits them! hi And what do they want
  11. +2
    19 August 2019 19: 04
    If the US plans are realized, the missiles will threaten both China and the DPRK, and Russia.

    Everything will depend on where they will be deployed and their performance characteristics.

    Read. In short. More precisely, what will happen if ...

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