Arms race in Asia. Will the US force Russia and China to create a military alliance?
Missiles in East Asia as New US Plan
The United States started talking about the need to deploy medium and shorter-range missiles in the Pacific almost immediately after the INF Treaty was officially terminated. First, the US ambassador to the Russian Federation, John Huntsman, gave interviewin which he spoke about Washington’s lack of plans to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles in Europe.
Perhaps these words of the ambassador are just an attempt to calm Russia. In the same way, the Americans promised not to expand the North Atlantic Alliance, but in the 1990-2000-years almost all the countries of Eastern Europe and the three former Soviet republics - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - entered NATO. Therefore, the Americans should not be trusted.
But, on the other hand, the ambassador may not have been cunning. The fact is that, shortly before his interview, the recently appointed US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that if medium- and shorter-range missiles are deployed somewhere, then we will talk about East Asia. The United States has long been thinking about reorienting to the Asian direction, since at present the American authorities see China as almost a more important rival than Russia - both economically and politically-politically.
By the way, the deployment of missiles in the Asia-Pacific region allows the United States to confront immediately the three most critically acclaimed states - China, North Korea and Russia, since all these countries have access to the Pacific. The Americans control the Asia-Pacific region less than Europe, and they have far less reliable allies here - only Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Therefore, the Asian direction is of increasing interest to Americans in terms of implementing the strategy of “containment” of Russia and China.
The importance of deploying missiles in the Asia-Pacific region is also explained by the fact that China did not sign the INF Treaty at the time, respectively, and was not limited in the development and deployment of intermediate and shorter-range missiles, unlike the United States. Therefore, now that the INF Treaty has been dissolved, Washington will inevitably want to catch up and create in East Asia a reliable counterbalance system for both China and Russia.
US Allies in the Asia Pacific
During the Cold War, East and Southeast Asia were literally divided into spheres of influence. China stood apart, sponsoring numerous Maoist partisan movements that fought throughout the region — in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Burma. The Soviet Union maintained close ties with the DPRK, Vietnam, and Laos. The orbit of US influence included Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines.
Now the alignment in the Asia-Pacific region has changed somewhat. Firstly, there is Russia, China and the DPRK - these three countries are considered by the American leadership as direct sources of threats to their interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
Secondly, most of the countries of Southeast Asia are now trying to maintain neutrality. For Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Soviet Union represented a danger in the context of its ideological expansion - the elites of these countries were mortally afraid of a repetition of the Vietnamese and Lao scenario.
Now the “communist threat" has passed and the countries of Southeast Asia are quietly trading and cooperating with Russia, the United States, and China. Unless, Chinese ambitions bother them. Vietnam can also be included in the same bloc of countries, which is traditionally close to Russia, but it has difficult relations with China and, surprisingly, it establishes good relations with the United States.
Thirdly, there are several countries - unequivocal allies of the United States. The first place among them in importance is Japan. Although the Land of the Rising Sun is no longer what it was before World War II, its potential should not be discounted. After all, Japan is a technological giant, and simply a strong country with a large population. The second most important US ally is South Korea. It depends on American support against the DPRK and China, and has a large and well-armed army.
Japan and South Korea - like Turkey and Greece in Europe: they seem to be military-political allies, but constantly put forward various claims to each other related to historical insults, territorial disputes, but most of all - with competition in the global and Asian high-tech markets. Finally, the third unequivocal US ally is Taiwan. Its military potential is lower than that of Japan and South Korea, but the island is very significant in the context of the confrontation between the United States and China.
US Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson recently announced that Washington is already discussing with its allies in the Asia-Pacific region the possibility of deploying new missiles directed against China and Russia. Missiles are supposed to be placed on the first line of the Pacific islands.
To deploy missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States will use an iron argument - the need to protect against a potentially dangerous and uncontrolled North Korean regime. But, of course, not the small and closed North Korea is the main goal of the American containment strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Under the pretext of protecting against North Korea, the Americans will send missiles to Russia and China - there is no doubt about that.
As for the bridgeheads for deploying missiles, their quality, first of all, will be Japan and South Korea. These countries are closest to both Russia and China. The islands controlled by Japan and South Korea are very convenient for deploying US missiles and service personnel there.
In addition, it is possible that missiles aimed at China can also be deployed in territories controlled by Vietnam. A few decades ago, the friendship of Washington and Hanoi, after all that the Americans did on Vietnamese soil, was hard to imagine. But historical grievances are gradually passing, and political, military and economic interests remain. Vietnam, realizing that it is difficult for it to confront neighboring China, is now interested in American support.
To confront Russia, the deployment of US missiles in Vietnam is practically useless, but it is just right to contain China. And Hanoi does not seem to offend Moscow, but it makes Beijing understand that it’s not a joke. True, so far these are only assumptions, since the Vietnamese authorities have not concluded any military agreements with the United States on this subject. However, this opportunity is not worth denying.
How China and Russia react
Naturally, the words of American politicians about the possibility of deploying missiles in East Asia were extremely negatively received by official Beijing. China said it would retaliate in the event of US missiles in the region. The need for response in Beijing is justified by the risks to regional and international security that will inevitably follow the deployment of missiles.
In Moscow, US actions are also seen as aimed at undermining the strategic balance prevailing in East Asia. Both China and Russia are particularly worried about the upcoming deployment in South Korea of the high-tech THAAD system designed to intercept ballistic missiles. In April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the United States not to use North Korea’s actions as an excuse to increase the US military presence and military power in Northeast Asia.
- the official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC says.
China, of course, will have to urgently build up its own military assistance, develop and launch new missiles, if the Americans all decide to deploy their missiles in close proximity to Chinese borders.
North Korean authorities are also urging South Korea to reconsider its plans for the admission of US missiles to the peninsula. Indeed, otherwise it would hardly be possible to talk about ending the arms race between the two Koreas.
By the way, do not forget about the population of Japan and South Korea: a significant part of the Japanese and Koreans are very negatively disposed to any American military presence on their territory. It is clear that countries are heavily dependent on the United States, and the Japanese and South Korean elites cannot refuse overseas partners, but it is not easier for ordinary residents to turn into a target for Russian and Chinese missiles if an arms race begins. In Japan, mass protests against the American military presence are constantly taking place.
Is a union of Russia and China possible?
In fact, Americans with their policies in the Asia-Pacific region are pushing Russia and China to create a full-fledged military alliance. In the event of a further buildup of the American military presence in the region, both states will have no other choice. Already, Russia and China are increasingly conducting joint military exercises. Recently, Russian and Chinese military aircraft conducted the first joint air patrol in the last sixty years, which scared both Japan and South Korea very much.
So far, the Chinese nuclear potential is much less significant than that of the United States or Russia. And the Chinese authorities are well aware that so far they alone cannot resist the aggressive American plans in the Asia-Pacific region. Accordingly, for China, the creation of a military-political alliance with Russia seems to be a much more profitable goal than for Russia itself.
Our country should not forget about its own interests, which, even if there are good partnerships with China, are by no means identical with the interests of China itself, but in many ways opposite to them.
For Beijing, the main thing is the assertion of its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region and Central Asia. And if in the south the interests of China conflict with the interests of the United States, supporting Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines, then in the north, China competes not only with the United States or Japan, but also with Russia. Chinese ambitions in the Far East, in Transbaikalia and Altai, in Eastern Siberia are no less significant than in Indochina. And Russia should not forget about this either.
Some analysts, however, adhere to the position that the statements of US officials about the deployment of missiles in East Asia are nothing more than an attempt to force Russia and China to sign a new treaty on intermediate and shorter-range missiles. The former INF Treaty has indeed outlived itself, which, incidentally, has been recognized by the Russian side. A new treaty could well have been concluded between a large number of participants, given that today China and India and Pakistan have similar missiles.
- P P 'SЊSЏ RџRѕR "RѕRЅSЃRєRёR№
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