Military Review

USA vs Huawei. Trade war with China will turn into a technology war

54
Today, the whole world is watching the US-China trade war. But the confrontation with the help of duties will end sooner or later, but with the technological rivalry of the two great powers of our time, things are not so simple.




US-China Trade War: Essence and Prospects


The aggravation of economic relations between the United States and China, dubbed the Trade War, was made possible thanks to the tough stance of President Donald Trump. For him, the economic confrontation with China has acquired fundamental importance.

Even before being elected head of state, Trump repeatedly criticized the current relationship with China. Acting as the defender of the American manufacturer, Trump showed concern about the growing export of Chinese goods to the United States. According to the presidential candidate, and then the president, this alignment threatened the national producer, contributed to a further crisis in American industry, increased unemployment, and undermining US positions in international markets.

In 2018, Trump went from words to deeds and imposed trade duties on a range of goods shipped from China. By the beginning of July 2018, trade duties were imposed on goods with a total value of more than 60 billion dollars. Wei Jiangguo, the former Minister of Commerce of the PRC, then described what was happening as the beginning of a trade war between the United States and China, and, according to the expert, it was the States that initiated the trade war.

But Washington underestimated the impact of tough Chinese goods on the American economy itself. Now the United States is at risk of becoming the loser in the trade war, but it’s too late to turn off the chosen path. Thus, analysts at the largest investment bank, Goldman Sachs, concluded that the trade war was hitting the American economy harder.

As a result of the trade war, the supply chains of goods that have been formed over decades have been disrupted, which dealt a severe blow to the American companies themselves, which can continue to reduce investment in developing their business in the United States itself. That is, Trump received just what he urged to fight - a decline in the development of production in the United States and an increase in the number of unemployed.

Prospects for the end of the trade war, many economists associate with the change of president in the United States. That is, you have to wait until the presidential election in 2020 year. And if Trump leaves the post of the owner of the White House, then his successor may begin to curtail the trade war, canceling the decisions of his predecessor.

Technology Confrontation


At the same time, the end of the trade war does not mean that the technological confrontation between the United States and China will come to naught. Now China has become America’s most important competitor, not only economically, but also scientifically and technically. Therefore, the mechanisms of the trade war formed by Trump can be used to further maintain the state that they characterize as the new Cold War, only in the field of technology.

BNP Paribas economist Chi Lo believes that disagreements between the US and China in the technology sector will only intensify. A clear evidence of the intensification of these differences is the conflict around the activities of the Chinese company Huawei. US authorities motivate their actions against the company for reasons of national security of the American state.

Technology is one of the most important areas of the global economy, the competition in which will only increase over time. And Huawei, a consumer electronics and telecommunications equipment company, is active in 5G, especially in developing countries. Improving the speed of the Internet and the quality of video content is becoming one of those points at which the confrontation between American and Chinese companies promises to be the toughest.

The obstacles that the United States is trying to create for Huawei today indicate that Washington can no longer fight with a promising Chinese company with purely economic leverage. Its products are not much inferior in quality to the American ones, but they have a much cheaper cost, which allows them to increase their presence in the markets in Africa. Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. Washington has no choice but to use primitive administrative levers like the detention in Canada of Men Wanzhou, the financial director of Huawei and the daughter of its founder.



It is clear that the arrest of the 47-year-old top manager of a Chinese company was inspired by the US authorities, and Canada only carried out the will of its "senior" ally. In the summer of 2018, the United States introduced a ban on the purchase of telecommunications equipment of Chinese companies ZTE and Huawei, explaining this by the fact that this equipment can be used by special services of the PRC. Since Canada, together with the United States, Britain, Australia and New Zealand is included in the so-called Five Eyes Alliance, Canadian intelligence agencies also worried about the use of Chinese equipment.

The United States has imposed severe sanctions against Huawei. Of course, technology borrowing and industrial espionage, in which the Americans blame the Chinese company, is just an excuse. In fact, the United States is concerned about the two main areas of work of the Chinese company.

Firstly, Huawei has noticeably squeezed its American competitors in the gadget market. Chinese smartphones are gaining more and more consumer sympathy in various countries of the world, which is explained by the ratio of price and quality.

Secondly, Washington is very worried about the introduction of Huawei 5G. For the first time, China intends to introduce its own technology at the international level, rather than recycled American projects. Naturally, China is becoming the main beneficiary of the introduction of the 5G standard, which will inevitably push 4G into the background.

But Washington cannot directly admit that China has developed more advanced technology and that now the American state, by banning it, acts as a brake on technological progress. Therefore, the US authorities justify their attacks on Huawei and ZTE by the fact that Chinese equipment supposedly allows the intelligence services of the Celestial Empire to track and receive important information.

Gordon Sondland, a spokesman for the U.S. Department of State for the European Union, cautioned against acquiring Chinese technology and a European country, stressing that European allies of the United States need to think carefully before acquiring equipment manufactured by Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE.

Achilles Heel of Chinese companies


Despite the tremendous success of the Chinese high-tech industry, it is still dependent on foreign, including American, technologies. And this addiction is the main “Achilles heel" of Chinese business. Therefore, the United States is able to inflict a powerful blow on Chinese companies, primarily on the same Huawei, to which the American leadership is particularly unkind.

After Huawei was included in the so-called The "black list" compiled by the US authorities, American companies require special permission for further cooperation with the Chinese company. Google’s US tech giant, until recently one of Huawei’s key partners, has decided not to receive this permission. And the Chinese faced a very sad prospect.

The fact is that if Google ceases to cooperate with Huawei, then Chinese smartphones will not be able to use the Android operating system. But it is precisely on it that Chinese gadgets work outside the PRC. And owners of Huawei smartphones will not be able to use Chrome, YouTube, the Play Market app store. For so many consumers, this will be such a serious blow that they will prefer to abandon Chinese smartphones and switch to the technology of other brands.



A similar prospect worried the Chinese authorities, and at the G20 summit, Xi Jinping hastened to agree with Donald Trump on some relief in the trade war, including the lifting of the ban on cooperation between US companies and Huawei. But then the situation worsened again - a new round of trade war began. From August 13 to 2019 in the United States, a ban on government agencies from using any equipment manufactured by Chinese ZTE and Huawei companies came into force.

However, in the modern world, everything is so interconnected that bans will hit not only Huawei. The consequences of the trade war unleashed by the Donald Trump administration can be completely felt by the American inhabitants themselves. For example, now in rural areas of the USA, almost all residents use Chinese equipment for digital connection. And after the ban is introduced, the comfort of the Americans themselves who live outside the city will be in jeopardy.

The blow to the American economy is also very large - annually, Huawei purchased services and equipment from its American partners in the amount of more than 11 billion dollars. A large American business, as well as small firms and firms, collaborated with a Chinese company. For many of them, partnership with the Chinese was the basis of their own financial well-being. Now it is in jeopardy.

Joy Tan, senior vice president of communications at Huawei Technologies USA, said that the termination of cooperation between US companies and Huawei increases the risk of increasing unemployment. Approximately 50 of thousands of people - employees, managers, entrepreneurs - may lose their jobs as a result of the introduction of new bans. But not only they, but also members of their families will actually suffer, demand will decrease, since the unemployed will have to look for new types of employment, and for now they will reduce their consumption.

In the end, Huawei will get out of the conflict with the United States, and more likely to gain than lose. After all, now the main market of the company is Asia and Europe, and not the United States. There will be buyers from the Chinese. This is evidenced by at least the numbers - the supply of Huawei smartphones for the first half of the 2016 year increased to 118 million units. Is this a success indicator for a Chinese company?



Against the backdrop of growing confrontation, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei appealed to his company’s employees to create an “iron army” to help cope with US sanctions.

The world media immediately rushed to recall that in his youth, Ren Zhengfei made a military career in the civil engineering forces of the People's Liberation Army of China, where he rose to a position similar to the deputy regiment commander. And there, allegedly, Ren became addicted to warlike rhetoric.

In any case, Ren showed that the company was ready for temporary defeats, to which he attributed the 30 billionth damage caused by US sanctions. And now Huawei will be reorganized, including through the reduction of American branches, which will affect jobs again for the Americans themselves.

The US does not have advanced 5G technology. Because of this, they can lag far behind in the artificial intelligence industry,

- Sure 74-year-old founder of a Chinese company. And, apparently, he is not so exaggerating the possibilities of his brainchild, especially if you pay attention to the commotion caused by the expansion of 5G technologies in the USA.
Author:
Photos used:
ferra.ru, anna-news.info
54 comments
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  1. Terenin
    Terenin 14 August 2019 15: 12
    +20
    . Today, the whole world is watching the US-China trade war.

    I, of course, like the whole world, watch the "graters" between the US and China, but for some reason my tension is caused by the systemless activity of the economic block of our government yes
    1. Sergey39
      Sergey39 14 August 2019 15: 23
      0
      We just do not see everything (I would like to hope). In any case, this war is beneficial for our country. Although the edges and affects us.
    2. smart ass
      smart ass 14 August 2019 15: 47
      +3
      Well, nothing Medvedev will introduce a 4-day working week and we will overtake everyone !!!!
      1. Svarog
        Svarog 14 August 2019 16: 04
        +1
        Quote: Clever man
        Well, nothing Medvedev will introduce a 4-day working week and we will overtake everyone !!!!

        It is visible to them that they began to go so bored to work that they decided to cut their working time for themselves .. Ordinary people, as they worked 6 days a week, will continue .. although it may even take 7 days, if the officials work 4 days, then one day , someone must compensate .. well, someone is known ..
        1. Hypatius
          Hypatius 14 August 2019 16: 29
          -1
          ... then one day, someone must compensate .. well, someone is known ..
          Here, only in the original, this "original" said that the third day off should be paid, like two (!) Others. laughing That is, IMHO, nothing.
          1. Svarog
            Svarog 14 August 2019 17: 00
            -4
            Here is another initiative .. https://news.mail.ru/politics/38329096/ pay attention, those who say that there is nowhere to put the car on the age of the cars .. Soon we will be told that driving an automobile older than 10 years old is unplanned. otherwise pay additional tax ..
            1. naidas
              naidas 14 August 2019 21: 49
              +5
              Quote: Svarog
              Soon they will tell us that driving a car older than 10 years without

              How so, and you can ride in people older than 60 (55).
      2. naidas
        naidas 14 August 2019 21: 48
        +1
        Quote: Clever man
        Well, nothing Medvedev will introduce a 4-day working week and we will overtake everyone !!!!

        Well, at least something will do for people. It will be possible to get a second job.
        1. Greenwood
          Greenwood 15 August 2019 08: 21
          -1
          Hmm, that's an idea. belay
        2. Roman070280
          Roman070280 15 August 2019 14: 13
          -2
          The state will be glad, even if you get a third one .. At night, for example ..
          Only now to call such a forced into slavery by the term "for people" .. the language does not turn ..
    3. Svarog
      Svarog 14 August 2019 16: 01
      0
      Quote: Terenin
      but the tension in me, for some reason, causes the systemless activity of the economic bloc of our government

      In general, I don’t notice this activity .. sleepy, lazy, pieces of paper are shifted from place to place, and they are engaged in public relations of their achievements that no one can feel. In general, it becomes sad, the Chinese, who were still underdeveloped 50 years ago, and besides sympathy through laughter, did not cause emotions. Now they have become the second economy of the world. And we are rolling to the bottom in all directions ... the worst thing is that even hope is no longer there.
    4. tracer
      tracer 14 August 2019 19: 41
      -2
      If you do not understand something, this does not mean that it is not.
    5. Ren
      Ren 15 August 2019 06: 49
      0
      Quote: Terenin
      I, of course, like the whole world, watch the "graters" between the US and China, but for some reason my tension is caused by the systemless activity of the economic block of our government

      But because of these chicks, others also have problems. For instance,
      The People's Bank of China (Central Bank) on Tuesday devalued the yuan by 1,9%, which was the largest one-day depreciation since 1994.
      The Central Bank lowered the yuan central rate by 1,9% - a benchmark set every morning, relative to which the currency is allowed to deviate by no more than 2% during trading. After the announcement of the Central Bank, the RMB market rate fell by almost the same 1,9%, to 6,3244 for $ 1.

      Those. that part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which is nominated in RMB, automatically fell by 1,9% + 1,9% only at the whim of the Central Bank of China. hi
    6. Roman070280
      Roman070280 15 August 2019 14: 10
      +1
      If we analyze it more thoroughly, our government acts quite systematically for itself ..))
      As they say, a negative result is also a result ..
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 14 August 2019 15: 21
    +1
    The US does not have advanced 5G technology. Because of this, they can lag far behind in the artificial intelligence industry,
    ... And how are things with advanced technologies in Russia? Do we not face similar trade wars in this area ..
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. smart ass
      smart ass 14 August 2019 15: 48
      +1
      If China starts a trade war with Russia it will look like a student beating a first-grader.
      1. Svarog
        Svarog 14 August 2019 16: 07
        +3
        Quote: Clever man
        If China starts a trade war with Russia it will look like a student beating a first-grader.

        Worse, it will be a disaster ... European can not afford, but there is no Chinese .. Welcome to the Stone Age.
      2. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 14 August 2019 18: 47
        +2
        Quote: Clever man
        If China starts a trade war with Russia it will look like a student beating a first-grader.

        No. I would also like to know the answer to the question - Why the hell (China) need to conduct a trade war with Russia? winked What is the meaning of this war? request
      3. Pilat2009
        Pilat2009 20 August 2019 17: 18
        0
        Quote: Clever man
        If China starts a trade war with Russia

        such as gas and oil duties? We don’t supply anything much.
    3. Svarog
      Svarog 14 August 2019 16: 05
      +1
      Quote: parusnik
      ... And how are things with advanced technologies in Russia? Do we not face similar trade wars in this area ..

      Fortunately, this does not threaten us .. we have one experience - "pipes" ...
  3. Lynx33
    Lynx33 14 August 2019 15: 24
    0
    Nonsense about the technology war, the United States has accumulated all the best brains of the planet and backed up with a bottomless barrel of money out of competition.
    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 14 August 2019 16: 05
      -1
      everything is changing rapidly. The number of foreigners currently working in China is growing at the fastest pace. Decent salaries are wild preferences. come from all over the world. hit the same shanghai. English or Russian speech you will meet very often.
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 15 August 2019 08: 25
        0
        Quote: carstorm 11
        The number of foreigners currently working in China is growing at the fastest pace.
        So it is, but not everyone can endure the Chinese and their everyday habits for a long time. I know people-orientalists who studied in China, who know the Chinese language and who worked as translators, and who eventually changed their field of activity with the proviso "these Chinese got it, I don't want to live in China." A very specific country, the mentality of which is far from every European will like. The same Japan, by the way, absorbs much more foreigners now.
    2. tracer
      tracer 14 August 2019 19: 43
      -5
      Did they tell you this on the Internet? Also tell us that it is English that is the guarantor of superiority in the technological level over states that do not use it.
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 15 August 2019 08: 27
        0
        Quote: tracer
        English
        English is the easiest language to learn. And in one way or another almost everyone can speak it.
        Quote: tracer
        over states not using it
        In English, much more technical literature, articles on the Internet, various forums and blogs with useful info are written.
        This is an objective reality with which you can not argue.
  4. Hypatius
    Hypatius 14 August 2019 15: 34
    0
    The leitmotif of the article is that China will win more than the USA, because they lead in 5G. Internet speed - I admit, although the goal of 5G is for all our counters, irons and refrigerators to go to the Internet with reports. And of course, at our expense, for example, through a smartphone, if the router is missing. That's just, I did not understand how 5G can improve video content. what
    1. smart ass
      smart ass 14 August 2019 15: 50
      -3
      Perhaps there is 5 g in China, there is no Internet in the usual sense))
      1. tracer
        tracer 14 August 2019 19: 46
        -4
        Of course there is no Internet in your usual sense.
    2. Alex_59
      Alex_59 15 August 2019 09: 27
      0
      Quote: Hypatius
      counters, irons and refrigerators went to the Internet with reports

      This is an IoT, not 5G.
  5. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 14 August 2019 15: 38
    +3
    shipments of Huawei smartphones in the first half of 2016 year rose to 118 million units. Is this an indicator of the success of a Chinese company?


    Damm, only the author said nothing that sales in Europe and outside of China fall by 15% and for the whole 2019 Huawei expects a drop in 40-60%. This is a great success, whatever you say ....

    Without Google services, no one will buy Chinese phones, although they are excellent.
    1. dSK
      dSK 14 August 2019 23: 15
      0
      Quote: Keyser Soze
      No google services

      Not the only pebble on the beach". stop
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 15 August 2019 08: 29
        -2
        Yes? And where will you look for applications? I have more than a dozen of them on my smartphone. How to deal with them.
        1. Russia
          Russia 15 August 2019 13: 22
          +1
          Then go to China, drop the anchor and live there for these applications. wink I wish you a backpack of androids to help. laughing
          1. Greenwood
            Greenwood 17 August 2019 04: 01
            -1
            In China, the Playmarket does not work, but they have their own infrastructure and their online services.
  6. NF68
    NF68 14 August 2019 15: 38
    +2
    The aggravation of economic relations between the United States and China, dubbed the Trade War, was made possible thanks to the tough stance of President Donald Trump. For him, the economic confrontation with China has acquired fundamental importance.


    It would be more correct to note that everything is not limited only to Donald Trump himself. Behind him, let's say, in the shadow are those under whose tune Trump and his administration dutifully dance and whose interests he defends in every way possible.
    1. Doctor
      Doctor 14 August 2019 18: 02
      +2
      It would be more correct to note that everything is not limited only to Donald Trump himself. Behind him, let's say, in the shadow are those under whose tune Trump and his administration dutifully dance and whose interests he defends in every way possible.

      All US citizens.
      But the rich, of course, in the first place. They played out with the export of capital to countries with cheap labor to the point that they now buy more from there than they sell 4-6 times. Plus technology transfer. More precisely minus (for the USA).
      Every 10 years, the Chinese pump out $ 3 trillion from the United States.

      Naturally, Guangzhou is growing by leaps and bounds, and Detroit is dying.
      But this will not always be. If Trump and Co. equalize the balance, the Chinese will be forced to cut costs, primarily due to the wages of their workers. But she’s not so. There will come a moment when there simply will be no point in working.
      Perhaps soon we will witness the fall of another great empire.
      1. malyvalv
        malyvalv 14 August 2019 23: 49
        +1
        Well, in this war of China and the USA, someone will inevitably win. And one way or another we will have to observe the fall of the great empire. The only question is.
        1. NF68
          NF68 15 August 2019 16: 45
          0
          Quote: malyvalv
          Well, in this war of China and the USA, someone will inevitably win. And one way or another we will have to observe the fall of the great empire. The only question is.


          Or something like 2's poles will arise, as it was before in the confrontation between the USA and the USSR.
      2. NF68
        NF68 15 August 2019 16: 44
        0
        Quote: Arzt
        But the rich, of course, in the first place.


        So where and when was it different?
  7. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 14 August 2019 15: 46
    0
    US no advanced 5G technology.


    Well there is no way. In this market, not only Huawei. We have 2 a month ago already launched 5G based on Nokia equipment.

    And 5G is partly a marketing stir - if you do not have high-tech services, it's just fast Internet. It still needs to be loaded with meaning and monetarization.
  8. Rwmos
    Rwmos 14 August 2019 16: 21
    -1
    And what technologies does the USA have? which China does not have? But on the contrary - you can remember ... For example, engines for US missile defense missile defense systems are not capable of producing, technologies and production are stupidly lost, as the US Department of Defense analytical center recently reported ...
  9. Klim chugunkin
    Klim chugunkin 14 August 2019 16: 46
    +1
    Yes, they are not any competitors. Moreover, the United States is the main importer of consumer goods, which is produced by China, and China is the main holder of US government bonds. If there is any disagreement, then in the political sphere basically ...

    In this context, the situation with Huawei recalls the scandal with Volkswagen in September 2015. At this time, ours began a military operation in Syria. Apparently, the Americans needed to consolidate their NATO allies and they decided to make the Germans more accommodating by putting pressure on one of the pillars of the German economy. Or maybe it was revenge for the deal on Iran. Or for Nord Stream 2 ...

    Looking retrospectively, the Huawei scandal began in January 2019, at about the same time in Venezuela, the self-proclaimed President Guaido entered the political scene. An interesting coincidence isn't it? It is quite possible that by pressure on Huawei, the Americans wanted to send a signal to the Chinese so that they would sit quietly in the event that some sort of mess started in Venezuela. At the moment, something is brewing in the Gulf, respectively, the Americans need to continue to put pressure on China and make it stay away from a potential conflict.
  10. Kolbi
    Kolbi 14 August 2019 17: 30
    0
    Let them butt, it’s profitable for Russia! I hope that the government will get the maximum benefit for Russia from this economy war. Or again there will be chewing snot .. Medvedev, in fact, has long had to settle in China and conclude agreements on investments and other investments .. In the process, again Medvedev will spill everything .., he does not care
    1. tracer
      tracer 14 August 2019 20: 46
      -2
      China has its own policy, Russia its own. So far, this union is beneficial to us. Despite the differences, alone against the Anglo-Saxon world, we can not stand without losses.
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 15 August 2019 08: 31
        -3
        Quote: tracer
        alone against the Anglo-Saxon world we can not stand without losses
        Are you sure that China is now facing the Anglo-Saxon world? And that to stand, for example, together with the Angosaxon world against Russia is not more profitable for him? And that we are "allies" with them?
  11. Sasha ___
    Sasha ___ 14 August 2019 20: 43
    0
    Cho local authors with numbers refuse to be friends stubbornly. In the USA, unemployment is at record low levels, workers' incomes are ramping up at a record pace, inflation is almost zero. And China devalued the yuan to avoid the effect of duties. It is not known who will defeat whom, but if the states begin to isolate China from their own and allied markets, then problems will quickly begin there.
    1. dSK
      dSK 14 August 2019 23: 08
      +2
      Quote: Sasha ___
      china devalued yuan

      China produces almost all consumer goods for its population and the devaluation of the renminbi is not critical for it.
      Russia imports almost all consumer goods and the devaluation of the ruble, in response to sanctions it is palpable for the population.
  12. samarin1969
    samarin1969 14 August 2019 20: 49
    +1
    As a layman, I was interested in reading. Thanks to the author.
  13. Klingon
    Klingon 14 August 2019 21: 10
    +3
    I have a P30 Pro, I can’t even imagine what can prevent me from watching YouTube using a third-party browser? I don’t need a Gmail, I don’t use it, I use Google guano maps, I use other navigators, there are a bunch of third-party markets where you can download anything. Before that I had Lumiya 950, which is not even an android at all, however I found all the applications that I need
    1. g1washntwn
      g1washntwn 15 August 2019 06: 34
      0
      Rejecting all Google services is not the end of the world. Developers will be happy to run to other platforms if they throw tasty buns, for example, from advertising on their software, etc. .. In the end, they themselves are interested in a wider market reach, they do not port openly lazy or crooked to other platforms.
  14. Smirnov Mikhail
    Smirnov Mikhail 15 August 2019 00: 46
    0
    I have artificial intelligence, even on Celeron works fine. And 5G is a connection .. Where is the logic?
    1. g1washntwn
      g1washntwn 15 August 2019 06: 42
      0
      The answer is in two technologies: Network slicing and D2D (Device-to-device). In total, based on them, we get a neural network. A little more and each device will become a part of "Skynet" wink
      1. Smirnov Mikhail
        Smirnov Mikhail 19 August 2019 16: 13
        0
        And what will it give?
  15. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 15 August 2019 11: 37
    0
    The Chinese simply have a lot of money. So the most logical for them is the creation of alternatives. And for chain stores, and for OSes, and for everything else. If Huawei succeeds, it could be the end of American dominance in the network. On the other hand, the American basis of the Internet will not go anywhere, and it creates almost limitless opportunities for sabotaging the work of any innovations. So you have to do an alternative to the network itself. The Chinese will pull - the world will become freer in reality, and not for chatter. Not...