Iran vs USA. Who will support America and who can prevent conflict
On the path to creating an anti-Iranian coalition, the United States has already faced the first difficulties. Germany and France are not eager to participate in a possible armed conflict with Iran. Not everything is smooth and in the relations of the USA with allies in the Middle East.
On Monday 5 August, British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace announced that London is joining the maritime security mission in the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the United States had at least one serious ally, ready to send its ships to the distant Persian Gulf. The fact is that Germany and France, which Washington turned to with a similar proposal, actually refused the request of the Americans.
French Defense Minister Florence Parley said that the presence of foreign troops and warships in the Strait of Hormuz can only add fuel to the fire of a Western conflict with Iran. The Minister of Finance and Vice-Chancellor of Germany Olaf Stolz described the prospect of an armed conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz as the worst-case scenario.
For Paris and Berlin, there is no need to intervene in the US-Iran conflict. This decision is economically disadvantageous and can lead to discontent among the population, and continental Europe is becoming increasingly aware of the difference between American and European interests. It makes no sense for the French and Germans to associate themselves with the Anglo-Saxon world and serve it as cannon fodder.
For Britain, participating in the mission is not only settling accounts with Iran for the capture of the British tanker, but also a kind of restoration historical justice. Although the British have long had no official colonies in the Middle East, historically it was the British Empire that controlled almost all shipping in the Indian Ocean. Indeed, the empire included India and Pakistan, the emirates of the Arabian coast, and Aden, Yemen, and the Suez Canal was also controlled by London. Of course, you cannot return to those times, but this does not mean that Great Britain completely abandoned any ambitions in the Middle East.
In addition to the UK, the coalition created by the United States will include Saudi Arabia - Iran’s main ideological, economic and military-political rival in the Persian Gulf. Washington is counting on joining the coalition of the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar. As for Kuwait, he can distance himself from participating in the coalition, supporting it only in words.
But the main reason for the participation of Arab monarchies in a possible conflict is not their US military assistance, since only Saudi Arabia has some power. Washington does not want to take on the full funding of the upcoming operation, and possibly armed conflict. And here he really needs the rich oil states of the Persian Gulf.
French military expert Thierry Meyssan is convinced that the main goal of Great Britain and the USA is to destroy the oil power of Iran, for which the operation in the Strait of Hormuz is conceived. By the way, British military advisers and instructors are still present in Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Once having almost monopoly influence on the Arab monarchies, Great Britain in the second half of the twentieth century ceded some of its positions to the United States, but so far both Washington and London are acting as a single bloc.
The United States has more long-standing accounts for Iran, which began with the very victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the approval of the anti-American regime in Iran. But ideology is ideology, and today Iran’s politics are very annoying to the United States. After all, Iran impedes the implementation of American plans in the Middle East, primarily in Syria. And the incidents with tankers in this case are a good reason for, if not to start a war, then to strike at Iran with new sanctions and the actual blockade of its oil exports.
According to Thierry Meyssan, two main positions with respect to Iran have now formed in the United States. The first position, personified with Donald Rumsfeld and his adviser Admiral Arthur Tsebrowski, is the destruction of Iranian government structures according to the Libyan scenario.
The second position, which is held by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is to establish control over the export of Iranian oil and gas. Donald Trump is currently leaning more toward a second position. It is the US oil interests that are behind the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and the nuclear program is just an excuse for an aggressive policy towards Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important strategic points in modern maritime trade. Of course, it can hardly be compared with the Suez or Panama Canals, but the Strait of Hormuz is of decisive importance for all oil trade in the Middle East. The fact is that it was through him from the Persian Gulf that tankers loaded with hydrocarbons from Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia exit. For all these countries, blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a nightmare, and given the difficult relationship with Iran, this nightmare becomes quite feasible.
At one time, it was Iran’s project to transport hydrocarbons through Syria directly to the Mediterranean Sea that provoked a sharply negative reaction from Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies. The Syrian civil war was inspired precisely for this purpose - to prevent the realization of a scenario favorable to Iran. And unfortunate Syria plunged into the abyss of war for almost a decade, without much hope that peace would ever be restored.
Iran uses threats of blocking the Strait of Hormuz as an instrument of political pressure, which is very annoying to US authorities. Seven years ago, in the 2012 year, when the Iranian Majlis was considering the law on blocking the strait, then US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta called the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz the red line that Washington will never allow Tehran to cross.
At a time when the United States and Britain are gathering an international coalition, to which the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf will join, Tehran is thinking about who could prevent Washington’s aggressive actions. The Commander of the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Hossein Hanzhan, who paid an official visit to Russia, invited the Russian Navy to conduct military exercises with the Iranian Navy in the Strait of Hormuz.
The presence of Russian warships, by the way, since the days of the Cold War has often been the main deterrent to the implementation of the aggressive plans of the United States and its allies. Therefore, if Russian ships appear in the Strait of Hormuz, then Washington’s plans will actually be frustrated. Or the Americans should have enough frostbite to put the world on the brink of a large-scale war because of the tanker conflict with Iran.
The position of China is also interesting. The other day, Chinese Ambassador to the UAE, Ni Jian, said that Beijing will consider the possibility of joining the Chinese Navy to the mission to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. At first glance, China’s behavior is rather strange - why would China suddenly get into the satellites of the Americans? But in fact, the presence of Chinese warships will disrupt US plans for organizing provocations in the strait, since in this case, foreign warships will really have to focus on ensuring the safety of navigation.
China is primarily interested in ensuring the security of oil supplies from the Gulf countries. And it is already clear that they are more threatened not by Iran, but by the aggressive US policy in the Middle East. Therefore, if Russia and China activate their presence in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will have to hastily close its provocative project.
But the intervention of Russia and China is “heavy artillery”, and so far Iran is trying to resort to another tried and tested way to relieve tension in the region. Tehran turned to the Sultan of Oman, Qaboos, who more than once acted as an intermediary between the Iranian and American authorities.
Oman is the most unusual Arab oil monarchy of the Arabian Peninsula. At one time, the Sultanate of Oman and Muscat was one of the most important maritime powers of the Indian Ocean, controlling not only the Strait of Hormuz, but also vast sea spaces up to the coast of East Africa - modern Kenya and Tanzania. Then the sultanate weakened, and then became dependent on the UK.
Starting from the second half of the twentieth century, after gaining real sovereignty, Oman began to pursue a rather independent foreign policy. The sultanate has good relations with Great Britain and the USA, which are its long-standing military partners and “intercessors”. American troops are stationed in Oman, British military advisers and specialists serve. But, at the same time, Oman has always maintained close ties with Iran. The history of Persian-Omani relations goes back centuries. In recent history, Iran was considered by Oman as a counterweight to its large and powerful neighbor - Saudi Arabia.
Oman’s relations with Iran are so strong that even the United States has to turn a blind eye to them. In particular, Omani banks operate in Iran, without actually fearing US sanctions. Oman and Iran are jointly developing the Hengham field in the Persian Gulf. Trade between the two states is carried out as usual, despite the sanctions imposed by the American leadership. At the same time, three American military bases operate in Oman.
Omani authorities have repeatedly had to act as intermediaries between the West and Iran. Since the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Iran, Washington is negotiating with Tehran through Oman. And, I must say, it was this small Arab sultanate that played a key role in some lull of the conflict between the United States and Iran in the 2014-2015 years. The nuclear deal was also concluded with the direct participation of Oman.
And now, Oman hastened to intervene in the situation. At the very end of July, Omani Foreign Minister Yousef bin Alawi announced that the joint efforts of Oman and Iran began to carry out safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Omani diplomat also emphasized the need to normalize shipping in the strait in order to prevent further escalation of the conflict. Of course, Oman will receive an offer from the United States to join the anti-Iranian coalition, but the real participation of Oman fleet it is practically excluded in it - the country has always sought to demonstrate its neutrality by acting on non-aligned strategies.
Thus, the mediation of Oman can play a crucial role in the temporary reconciliation of the United States and Great Britain on the one hand, and Iran on the other. It all depends on whether London and Washington will be ready to take the help of their traditional ally for peace in the Middle East.
How America gathers a coalition
On Monday 5 August, British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace announced that London is joining the maritime security mission in the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the United States had at least one serious ally, ready to send its ships to the distant Persian Gulf. The fact is that Germany and France, which Washington turned to with a similar proposal, actually refused the request of the Americans.
French Defense Minister Florence Parley said that the presence of foreign troops and warships in the Strait of Hormuz can only add fuel to the fire of a Western conflict with Iran. The Minister of Finance and Vice-Chancellor of Germany Olaf Stolz described the prospect of an armed conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz as the worst-case scenario.
For Paris and Berlin, there is no need to intervene in the US-Iran conflict. This decision is economically disadvantageous and can lead to discontent among the population, and continental Europe is becoming increasingly aware of the difference between American and European interests. It makes no sense for the French and Germans to associate themselves with the Anglo-Saxon world and serve it as cannon fodder.
For Britain, participating in the mission is not only settling accounts with Iran for the capture of the British tanker, but also a kind of restoration historical justice. Although the British have long had no official colonies in the Middle East, historically it was the British Empire that controlled almost all shipping in the Indian Ocean. Indeed, the empire included India and Pakistan, the emirates of the Arabian coast, and Aden, Yemen, and the Suez Canal was also controlled by London. Of course, you cannot return to those times, but this does not mean that Great Britain completely abandoned any ambitions in the Middle East.
In addition to the UK, the coalition created by the United States will include Saudi Arabia - Iran’s main ideological, economic and military-political rival in the Persian Gulf. Washington is counting on joining the coalition of the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar. As for Kuwait, he can distance himself from participating in the coalition, supporting it only in words.
But the main reason for the participation of Arab monarchies in a possible conflict is not their US military assistance, since only Saudi Arabia has some power. Washington does not want to take on the full funding of the upcoming operation, and possibly armed conflict. And here he really needs the rich oil states of the Persian Gulf.
French military expert Thierry Meyssan is convinced that the main goal of Great Britain and the USA is to destroy the oil power of Iran, for which the operation in the Strait of Hormuz is conceived. By the way, British military advisers and instructors are still present in Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Once having almost monopoly influence on the Arab monarchies, Great Britain in the second half of the twentieth century ceded some of its positions to the United States, but so far both Washington and London are acting as a single bloc.The United States has more long-standing accounts for Iran, which began with the very victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the approval of the anti-American regime in Iran. But ideology is ideology, and today Iran’s politics are very annoying to the United States. After all, Iran impedes the implementation of American plans in the Middle East, primarily in Syria. And the incidents with tankers in this case are a good reason for, if not to start a war, then to strike at Iran with new sanctions and the actual blockade of its oil exports.
According to Thierry Meyssan, two main positions with respect to Iran have now formed in the United States. The first position, personified with Donald Rumsfeld and his adviser Admiral Arthur Tsebrowski, is the destruction of Iranian government structures according to the Libyan scenario.
The second position, which is held by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is to establish control over the export of Iranian oil and gas. Donald Trump is currently leaning more toward a second position. It is the US oil interests that are behind the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and the nuclear program is just an excuse for an aggressive policy towards Iran.
The economic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important strategic points in modern maritime trade. Of course, it can hardly be compared with the Suez or Panama Canals, but the Strait of Hormuz is of decisive importance for all oil trade in the Middle East. The fact is that it was through him from the Persian Gulf that tankers loaded with hydrocarbons from Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia exit. For all these countries, blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a nightmare, and given the difficult relationship with Iran, this nightmare becomes quite feasible.
At one time, it was Iran’s project to transport hydrocarbons through Syria directly to the Mediterranean Sea that provoked a sharply negative reaction from Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies. The Syrian civil war was inspired precisely for this purpose - to prevent the realization of a scenario favorable to Iran. And unfortunate Syria plunged into the abyss of war for almost a decade, without much hope that peace would ever be restored.
Iran uses threats of blocking the Strait of Hormuz as an instrument of political pressure, which is very annoying to US authorities. Seven years ago, in the 2012 year, when the Iranian Majlis was considering the law on blocking the strait, then US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta called the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz the red line that Washington will never allow Tehran to cross.
Russia is called for exercises, and China wants to patrol
At a time when the United States and Britain are gathering an international coalition, to which the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf will join, Tehran is thinking about who could prevent Washington’s aggressive actions. The Commander of the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Hossein Hanzhan, who paid an official visit to Russia, invited the Russian Navy to conduct military exercises with the Iranian Navy in the Strait of Hormuz.
The presence of Russian warships, by the way, since the days of the Cold War has often been the main deterrent to the implementation of the aggressive plans of the United States and its allies. Therefore, if Russian ships appear in the Strait of Hormuz, then Washington’s plans will actually be frustrated. Or the Americans should have enough frostbite to put the world on the brink of a large-scale war because of the tanker conflict with Iran.
The position of China is also interesting. The other day, Chinese Ambassador to the UAE, Ni Jian, said that Beijing will consider the possibility of joining the Chinese Navy to the mission to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. At first glance, China’s behavior is rather strange - why would China suddenly get into the satellites of the Americans? But in fact, the presence of Chinese warships will disrupt US plans for organizing provocations in the strait, since in this case, foreign warships will really have to focus on ensuring the safety of navigation.
China is primarily interested in ensuring the security of oil supplies from the Gulf countries. And it is already clear that they are more threatened not by Iran, but by the aggressive US policy in the Middle East. Therefore, if Russia and China activate their presence in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will have to hastily close its provocative project.
But the intervention of Russia and China is “heavy artillery”, and so far Iran is trying to resort to another tried and tested way to relieve tension in the region. Tehran turned to the Sultan of Oman, Qaboos, who more than once acted as an intermediary between the Iranian and American authorities.
Sultanate of Oman and its role in the Middle East
Oman is the most unusual Arab oil monarchy of the Arabian Peninsula. At one time, the Sultanate of Oman and Muscat was one of the most important maritime powers of the Indian Ocean, controlling not only the Strait of Hormuz, but also vast sea spaces up to the coast of East Africa - modern Kenya and Tanzania. Then the sultanate weakened, and then became dependent on the UK.
Starting from the second half of the twentieth century, after gaining real sovereignty, Oman began to pursue a rather independent foreign policy. The sultanate has good relations with Great Britain and the USA, which are its long-standing military partners and “intercessors”. American troops are stationed in Oman, British military advisers and specialists serve. But, at the same time, Oman has always maintained close ties with Iran. The history of Persian-Omani relations goes back centuries. In recent history, Iran was considered by Oman as a counterweight to its large and powerful neighbor - Saudi Arabia.
Oman’s relations with Iran are so strong that even the United States has to turn a blind eye to them. In particular, Omani banks operate in Iran, without actually fearing US sanctions. Oman and Iran are jointly developing the Hengham field in the Persian Gulf. Trade between the two states is carried out as usual, despite the sanctions imposed by the American leadership. At the same time, three American military bases operate in Oman.
Omani authorities have repeatedly had to act as intermediaries between the West and Iran. Since the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Iran, Washington is negotiating with Tehran through Oman. And, I must say, it was this small Arab sultanate that played a key role in some lull of the conflict between the United States and Iran in the 2014-2015 years. The nuclear deal was also concluded with the direct participation of Oman.
And now, Oman hastened to intervene in the situation. At the very end of July, Omani Foreign Minister Yousef bin Alawi announced that the joint efforts of Oman and Iran began to carry out safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Omani diplomat also emphasized the need to normalize shipping in the strait in order to prevent further escalation of the conflict. Of course, Oman will receive an offer from the United States to join the anti-Iranian coalition, but the real participation of Oman fleet it is practically excluded in it - the country has always sought to demonstrate its neutrality by acting on non-aligned strategies.
Thus, the mediation of Oman can play a crucial role in the temporary reconciliation of the United States and Great Britain on the one hand, and Iran on the other. It all depends on whether London and Washington will be ready to take the help of their traditional ally for peace in the Middle East.
Information