Kashmir is deprived of autonomy. India and Pakistan are on the verge of a new war
In the near future, another war may begin between India and Pakistan. It is possible that it will be even more fierce than the previous armed conflicts, because Kashmir’s independence is at stake.
The government of Narendra Modi, supported by Hindu nationalists, decided to eliminate the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. The President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, signed a decree, and the Minister of the Interior of India, Amit Shah, introduced a bill to the country's parliament, which presupposes the deprivation of special status. According to Amit Shah, the situation in Kashmir requires the adoption of certain measures to reorganize the political status of this territory.
The initiative to review the status of Jammu and Kashmir was made by the Indian nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People's Party), which is currently the ruling party in India. It was she who unconditionally supported the decision of the authorities to cancel the 370 article of the Constitution of India on the autonomy and special status of the state.
In Kashmir Bharat Janatha party created the most convenient situation for decision-making - she left the state government, after which the government ceased to exist and now Jammu and Kashmir are controlled by the federal center through the governor. Previously, approval of a change in state status would require the consent of the Kashmir government, but since there is no government, there is no one to ask. The situation is very convenient for New Delhi.
In accordance with the decision of the Indian government, Jammu and Kashmir must lose the status of a state and become a union territory. Union territory, according to Indian law, has less rights than state. Now India includes 29 states and 7 union territories.
The status of union territories is held by the national metropolitan area of Delhi, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Dadra and Nagar-Haveli, Daman and Diu, Lakshadwip, Puducherry, Chandigarh. Now, according to the decision of the country's leadership, the state of Jammu and Kashmir should also join this list - probably the most problematic Indian state, the situation in which has repeatedly caused wars with neighboring Pakistan.
Unlike the states, Union territories do not have governors and are managed directly from the federal center. Therefore, the Indian government claims that changing the status of Jammu and Kashmir requires security considerations - supposedly in the union territory it is easier to maintain public order and fight terrorist activity.
Interestingly, the Indian authorities decided not only to change the status of Jammu and Kashmir, but also to divide the current state territory - from the Jammu and Kashmir, the allied territory of Ladakh will be allocated. Moreover, Ladakh will not have its own parliament, but Jammu and Kashmir will still leave the regional assembly. Naturally, New Delhi understands that the Kashmiri population will accept the innovations without enthusiasm. Therefore, additional police forces and units of the Indian army are hastily deployed to the state.
On the night of August 5, Mehbub Mufti and Omar Abdullah, influential Muslim Kashmir politicians who allowed themselves to criticize government initiatives, were taken under house arrest. The state switched off mobile communications and the Internet, and 8 of thousands of security forces from other Indian states arrived on its territory. So the country's authorities are preparing for a possible surge in public discontent.
The decision of the Indian government has already provoked a very tough reaction from Pakistan. Islamabad intends to raise the issue of depriving Jammu and Kashmir of their autonomous status at the United Nations International Court of Justice. But this is only a small amount of what the Pakistani authorities are capable of.
Recall that the state of Jammu and Kashmir, located in the extreme northwest of India, has been the main stumbling block between the two states from the very first years of the existence of independent India and Pakistan. The thing is that both New Delhi and Islamabad claim to be disputed Kashmir territories. For the Hindus, the mountains of Kashmir are sacred, and Pakistan considers them as their territory, since a large number of Muslims live there.
From 1846 to 1947, the indigenous principality of Jammu and Kashmir existed as part of British India. When the partition of British India took place, it was agreed that the indigenous principalities would be given the opportunity to choose independently, join India or Pakistan, and, in extreme cases, to remain independent countries. Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir Hari Singh (pictured), ill-disposed to both the Indian National Congress and the Muslim League, decided not to join anyone and make his principality an independent state.
But Muslims, who made up over 90% of the population of Jammu and Kashmir, dreamed of becoming part of Pakistan, since the dynasty that ruled in Jammu and Kashmir was Hindu and oppressed Muslims in every way. An armed uprising began in the principality. And Maharaja Hari Singh had no choice but to turn to the Indian Union for help. Indeed, to ask for help in suppressing the Muslim uprising Pakistan would be an extremely strange decision. Indian authorities in response demanded that Maharaja recognize Jammu and Kashmir as part of India, which Hari Singh did. Thus began the First Indo-Pakistani War, which led to the division of Kashmir.
Currently, India controls 60% of the territory of the former principality of Jammu and Kashmir. It was on it that the state of Jammu and Kashmir was created. Pakistan controls 30% of the territory of the former principality, which formed the province of Gilgit-Baltistan (formerly the Northern Territory) and the “temporarily independent” Azad-Kashmir (Free Kashmir). 10% of the territory of Jammu and Kashmir (the Aksaychin region, which is of strategic importance, since the road from Tibet to Xinjiang passes through it) has been under Chinese control since 1962 of the year.
For more than seventy years, India and Pakistan have been arguing over the northern regions of Jammu and Kashmir. Muslims make up the majority of the population in the state. Moreover, if as a whole 67% of Muslims live in Jammu and Kashmir, then in the Kashmir Valley Muslims make up the vast majority - 97% of the population. In addition, the state also includes regions with a different population. In Jammu, 65% of the population are Hindus, and Muslims only 31%, in Ladakh 46% are Buddhists.
The special status of Jammu and Kashmir suggests that no federal law of India is in force in the state without the approval of its regional parliament. At the same time, Indian citizens living in other states do not have the right to buy land and real estate in Jammu and Kashmir. So the state protects itself from the expansion of the Hindu population, because otherwise the Indian government would not have been worth it to organize a mass resettlement of Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir and achieve the numerical superiority of the latter over Muslims.
Ethno-confessional disagreements in Jammu and Kashmir are one of the main reasons for the intensification of extremist groups in the region using terrorist methods of struggle. Kashmiri radicals are based in Pakistan-controlled Azad Kashmir and enjoy the full support of the Pakistani secret services. Therefore, the Indian authorities after almost every terrorist attack accuse Islamabad of involvement in financing and arming terrorist groups.
In Pakistan, these allegations are, of course, rejected and claimed that Kashmiri Muslims are fighting for their rights and interests on their own. But it is also clear that without the support of a strong neighboring state, the Kashmir’s radicals would not have been able to exist for such a long time and oppose the Indian authorities. On the other hand, it was precisely terrorist activity that became one of the main reasons why in New Delhi they decided to limit the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir and deprive this territory of state status.
For the Kashmiri population, professing Islam, the presence in the Indian constitution of an article on the autonomous status of the state was the only explanation for the location of the territory within India. Now Muslims have virtually lost their autonomy. They have only hope - the intercession of Pakistan, which in Kashmir has always been looked upon as the main defender of the rights of Indian Muslims.
Mehbuba Mufti, formerly the head of the state government, explicitly emphasizes that after revising the status of the state in Jammu and Kashmir, an armed movement may begin against the federal government. While Islamabad is limited to critical statements, there is no doubt that the consequences of the decision of the Indian authorities will be very serious.
One can predict, firstly, the increase in acts of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. As often happens in South Asia, aggression will be directed against representatives of the Hindu minority, Hindu pilgrims visiting sacred places in Kashmir, as well as against foreign tourists. One can expect both riots and terrorist acts.
Secondly, radical groups operating from the territory of Azad-Kashmir are intensifying their activities. Thousands of militants are based in Azad Kashmir, no one can name their exact number. The decision of the Indian authorities can attract a certain part of the Kashmiri Muslim youth to the ranks of the radicals. By the way, Kashmiri militants are increasingly using suicide bombings, with the main targets being both military personnel and police in India, as well as pilgrims.
Thirdly, the clashes on the Indian-Pakistani border are not ruled out. The risk of war with Pakistan forces India to keep more than 300 thousand troops in Jammu and Kashmir. Almost a third of the Indian army personnel are deployed here. But the large military contingent is not a 100% guarantee against hostilities - Pakistan also holds the bulk of its land army on the Indian border.
On February 27 on February 2019, there was already an armed conflict at the border, during which there were not only skirmishes between ground units, but also air battles between the Indian and Pakistani air forces. 30 July 2019 year in the sectors of Sunderbani, Tangdhar and Keran, the Pakistani military violated the ceasefire. During the shootout, one Indian and two Pakistani soldiers died.
Of course, at first glance, the problem of Jammu and Kashmir is very far from Russia and is incomprehensible to many citizens. But it is worth recalling that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers and a full-fledged war between the countries can lead to the most unpredictable consequences. But even if no one applies weapon mass destruction, even an ordinary military conflict can seriously change the situation in the region. Not only the residents of Jammu and Kashmir will suffer - the conflict will affect the situation in South and Central Asia as a whole, and the republics of the former Soviet Central Asia may be affected.
It is also worth noting that Russia is now not profitable to support any of the parties to the conflict. Like, by the way, the United States. If we talk about India, then the Russian-Indian relations since the Soviet era have been developing quite well. Today, India is one of the largest buyers of Russian weapons, which, incidentally, successfully beats Pakistani opponents. But also with Pakistan, after many decades of strained relations, Russia also cooperates very actively. Moreover, Pakistan is an ally of China. Similarly, the United States is Pakistan’s main military and political partner; in recent years, it has been friends with New Delhi no less, if not more, than with Islamabad.
The optimal solution is negotiations between the two South Asian powers with the mediation of three great countries: Russia, China and the United States. Moreover, each of these countries has its own interests in the region and is interested in preventing a new Indo-Pakistani war.
India Decides to End Kashmiri Independence
The government of Narendra Modi, supported by Hindu nationalists, decided to eliminate the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. The President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, signed a decree, and the Minister of the Interior of India, Amit Shah, introduced a bill to the country's parliament, which presupposes the deprivation of special status. According to Amit Shah, the situation in Kashmir requires the adoption of certain measures to reorganize the political status of this territory.
The initiative to review the status of Jammu and Kashmir was made by the Indian nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People's Party), which is currently the ruling party in India. It was she who unconditionally supported the decision of the authorities to cancel the 370 article of the Constitution of India on the autonomy and special status of the state.
Will Narendra Modi enter history how is the prime minister of India depriving Kashmir of autonomy?
In Kashmir Bharat Janatha party created the most convenient situation for decision-making - she left the state government, after which the government ceased to exist and now Jammu and Kashmir are controlled by the federal center through the governor. Previously, approval of a change in state status would require the consent of the Kashmir government, but since there is no government, there is no one to ask. The situation is very convenient for New Delhi.
In accordance with the decision of the Indian government, Jammu and Kashmir must lose the status of a state and become a union territory. Union territory, according to Indian law, has less rights than state. Now India includes 29 states and 7 union territories.
The status of union territories is held by the national metropolitan area of Delhi, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Dadra and Nagar-Haveli, Daman and Diu, Lakshadwip, Puducherry, Chandigarh. Now, according to the decision of the country's leadership, the state of Jammu and Kashmir should also join this list - probably the most problematic Indian state, the situation in which has repeatedly caused wars with neighboring Pakistan.
Unlike the states, Union territories do not have governors and are managed directly from the federal center. Therefore, the Indian government claims that changing the status of Jammu and Kashmir requires security considerations - supposedly in the union territory it is easier to maintain public order and fight terrorist activity.
Interestingly, the Indian authorities decided not only to change the status of Jammu and Kashmir, but also to divide the current state territory - from the Jammu and Kashmir, the allied territory of Ladakh will be allocated. Moreover, Ladakh will not have its own parliament, but Jammu and Kashmir will still leave the regional assembly. Naturally, New Delhi understands that the Kashmiri population will accept the innovations without enthusiasm. Therefore, additional police forces and units of the Indian army are hastily deployed to the state.
On the night of August 5, Mehbub Mufti and Omar Abdullah, influential Muslim Kashmir politicians who allowed themselves to criticize government initiatives, were taken under house arrest. The state switched off mobile communications and the Internet, and 8 of thousands of security forces from other Indian states arrived on its territory. So the country's authorities are preparing for a possible surge in public discontent.
Eternal dispute over Kashmir
The decision of the Indian government has already provoked a very tough reaction from Pakistan. Islamabad intends to raise the issue of depriving Jammu and Kashmir of their autonomous status at the United Nations International Court of Justice. But this is only a small amount of what the Pakistani authorities are capable of.
Recall that the state of Jammu and Kashmir, located in the extreme northwest of India, has been the main stumbling block between the two states from the very first years of the existence of independent India and Pakistan. The thing is that both New Delhi and Islamabad claim to be disputed Kashmir territories. For the Hindus, the mountains of Kashmir are sacred, and Pakistan considers them as their territory, since a large number of Muslims live there.
From 1846 to 1947, the indigenous principality of Jammu and Kashmir existed as part of British India. When the partition of British India took place, it was agreed that the indigenous principalities would be given the opportunity to choose independently, join India or Pakistan, and, in extreme cases, to remain independent countries. Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir Hari Singh (pictured), ill-disposed to both the Indian National Congress and the Muslim League, decided not to join anyone and make his principality an independent state.
But Muslims, who made up over 90% of the population of Jammu and Kashmir, dreamed of becoming part of Pakistan, since the dynasty that ruled in Jammu and Kashmir was Hindu and oppressed Muslims in every way. An armed uprising began in the principality. And Maharaja Hari Singh had no choice but to turn to the Indian Union for help. Indeed, to ask for help in suppressing the Muslim uprising Pakistan would be an extremely strange decision. Indian authorities in response demanded that Maharaja recognize Jammu and Kashmir as part of India, which Hari Singh did. Thus began the First Indo-Pakistani War, which led to the division of Kashmir.
Currently, India controls 60% of the territory of the former principality of Jammu and Kashmir. It was on it that the state of Jammu and Kashmir was created. Pakistan controls 30% of the territory of the former principality, which formed the province of Gilgit-Baltistan (formerly the Northern Territory) and the “temporarily independent” Azad-Kashmir (Free Kashmir). 10% of the territory of Jammu and Kashmir (the Aksaychin region, which is of strategic importance, since the road from Tibet to Xinjiang passes through it) has been under Chinese control since 1962 of the year.
For more than seventy years, India and Pakistan have been arguing over the northern regions of Jammu and Kashmir. Muslims make up the majority of the population in the state. Moreover, if as a whole 67% of Muslims live in Jammu and Kashmir, then in the Kashmir Valley Muslims make up the vast majority - 97% of the population. In addition, the state also includes regions with a different population. In Jammu, 65% of the population are Hindus, and Muslims only 31%, in Ladakh 46% are Buddhists.
The special status of Jammu and Kashmir suggests that no federal law of India is in force in the state without the approval of its regional parliament. At the same time, Indian citizens living in other states do not have the right to buy land and real estate in Jammu and Kashmir. So the state protects itself from the expansion of the Hindu population, because otherwise the Indian government would not have been worth it to organize a mass resettlement of Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir and achieve the numerical superiority of the latter over Muslims.
Ethno-confessional disagreements in Jammu and Kashmir are one of the main reasons for the intensification of extremist groups in the region using terrorist methods of struggle. Kashmiri radicals are based in Pakistan-controlled Azad Kashmir and enjoy the full support of the Pakistani secret services. Therefore, the Indian authorities after almost every terrorist attack accuse Islamabad of involvement in financing and arming terrorist groups.
In Pakistan, these allegations are, of course, rejected and claimed that Kashmiri Muslims are fighting for their rights and interests on their own. But it is also clear that without the support of a strong neighboring state, the Kashmir’s radicals would not have been able to exist for such a long time and oppose the Indian authorities. On the other hand, it was precisely terrorist activity that became one of the main reasons why in New Delhi they decided to limit the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir and deprive this territory of state status.
Will Pakistan start a war?
For the Kashmiri population, professing Islam, the presence in the Indian constitution of an article on the autonomous status of the state was the only explanation for the location of the territory within India. Now Muslims have virtually lost their autonomy. They have only hope - the intercession of Pakistan, which in Kashmir has always been looked upon as the main defender of the rights of Indian Muslims.
Mehbuba Mufti
Mehbuba Mufti, formerly the head of the state government, explicitly emphasizes that after revising the status of the state in Jammu and Kashmir, an armed movement may begin against the federal government. While Islamabad is limited to critical statements, there is no doubt that the consequences of the decision of the Indian authorities will be very serious.
One can predict, firstly, the increase in acts of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. As often happens in South Asia, aggression will be directed against representatives of the Hindu minority, Hindu pilgrims visiting sacred places in Kashmir, as well as against foreign tourists. One can expect both riots and terrorist acts.
Secondly, radical groups operating from the territory of Azad-Kashmir are intensifying their activities. Thousands of militants are based in Azad Kashmir, no one can name their exact number. The decision of the Indian authorities can attract a certain part of the Kashmiri Muslim youth to the ranks of the radicals. By the way, Kashmiri militants are increasingly using suicide bombings, with the main targets being both military personnel and police in India, as well as pilgrims.
Thirdly, the clashes on the Indian-Pakistani border are not ruled out. The risk of war with Pakistan forces India to keep more than 300 thousand troops in Jammu and Kashmir. Almost a third of the Indian army personnel are deployed here. But the large military contingent is not a 100% guarantee against hostilities - Pakistan also holds the bulk of its land army on the Indian border.
On February 27 on February 2019, there was already an armed conflict at the border, during which there were not only skirmishes between ground units, but also air battles between the Indian and Pakistani air forces. 30 July 2019 year in the sectors of Sunderbani, Tangdhar and Keran, the Pakistani military violated the ceasefire. During the shootout, one Indian and two Pakistani soldiers died.
Conflict risks for the global environment
Of course, at first glance, the problem of Jammu and Kashmir is very far from Russia and is incomprehensible to many citizens. But it is worth recalling that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers and a full-fledged war between the countries can lead to the most unpredictable consequences. But even if no one applies weapon mass destruction, even an ordinary military conflict can seriously change the situation in the region. Not only the residents of Jammu and Kashmir will suffer - the conflict will affect the situation in South and Central Asia as a whole, and the republics of the former Soviet Central Asia may be affected.
It is also worth noting that Russia is now not profitable to support any of the parties to the conflict. Like, by the way, the United States. If we talk about India, then the Russian-Indian relations since the Soviet era have been developing quite well. Today, India is one of the largest buyers of Russian weapons, which, incidentally, successfully beats Pakistani opponents. But also with Pakistan, after many decades of strained relations, Russia also cooperates very actively. Moreover, Pakistan is an ally of China. Similarly, the United States is Pakistan’s main military and political partner; in recent years, it has been friends with New Delhi no less, if not more, than with Islamabad.
The optimal solution is negotiations between the two South Asian powers with the mediation of three great countries: Russia, China and the United States. Moreover, each of these countries has its own interests in the region and is interested in preventing a new Indo-Pakistani war.
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- edition.cnn.com
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