Military Review

Experts have estimated the likelihood of war between the US and China

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The harsh mutual rhetoric of the United States and China, according to some experts, can lead to extremely negative consequences for the global economy and not only. The claims of the United States against China are literally everywhere: from undervaluation of the renminbi and barriers to American goods to excessive activity on islands in the Pacific Ocean. China reciprocates, accusing the United States of trying to impose its political and economic will, while continuing to develop its military component.




The most radical-minded experts in Russia and the West say that the first military conflict between the United States and China may soon take place with unpredictable consequences for the whole world.

In fact, statements about the “imminent military conflict” between Washington and Beijing should not be taken seriously given the current situation. And the situation is connected not only with the mentality of representatives of the two countries, but also with economic positions. The United States and China are today the two largest economies in the world. Moreover, one of these economies serves a substantial part of the debt of another economy.

To date, the value of the US public debt exceeds 22,5 trillion dollars. And the growth is proceeding at such a pace that no one in the camp of the American authorities is talking about the need to turn the situation around at 180 degrees. Now they practically openly admit that US debt can grow as much as you like if there is a club of "true democracy" in the arsenal.

Experts have estimated the likelihood of war between the US and China


Of the total US debt, China serves about 10%. But China would not invest in a completely unprofitable and insolvent project. Beijing understands that if they skillfully manipulate their investments in the fifth part of the US public debt, while not forgetting the development of their own military infrastructure and investments in the PLA, then all American militancy can be controlled. Even the Huawei example, when China only hinted that it could take big American companies operating in the PRC by the throat, had an effect, and Washington with its sanctions immediately won back a lot.

In the ordinary sense of the word, there will be no war between the United States and China, at least in the near future, since both countries understand that a direct war with each other is an enterprise with grandiose risks. Another thing is working with attempts to weaken each other, with stealth attacks, using proxy forces and searching for each other's weaknesses.
39 comments
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  1. Operator
    Operator 6 August 2019 13: 18
    +1
    China's contribution to the US national debt is nothing more than an export loan from a supplier to a buyer, Sino-US trade turnover will decrease - China's contribution will immediately decrease.
    1. FenH
      FenH 6 August 2019 13: 39
      +2
      Quote: Operator
      China's contribution to the US national debt is nothing more than an export loan from a supplier to a buyer, Sino-US trade turnover will decrease - China's contribution will immediately decrease.

      Remaining trade tensions between China and the United States came at a cost to Washington. As a result of the trading session on Monday, the US stock markets lost a total of about $ 700 billion. Bloomberg reports. This is reported by Rambler. Further: https://finance.rambler.ru/markets/42617564/?utm_content=rfinance&utm_medium=read_more&utm_source=copylink
      As you can see, not everything is so rosy for America
      1. Fayter2017
        Fayter2017 6 August 2019 19: 48
        +3
        Sorry, what have they lost? Some pieces of steel have now begun to cost a little cheaper, tomorrow they will roll back and become more expensive. All this is nonsense, like American debt, while oil is sold for dollars and there is a strong army, America put a bolt on debt.
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 6 August 2019 13: 20
    +3
    Debtors, in general, do not like to repay debts !!!
    But in this particular case, the debtor is safe to run into the holder for a long time in any way!
    Events, as if interesting, but still dumb!
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 6 August 2019 21: 14
      +2
      Quote: rocket757
      Debtors, in general, do not like to repay debts !!!
      But in this particular case, the debtor is safe to run into the holder for a long time in any way!
      Events, as if interesting, but still dumb!

      Therefore, the mattresses are very tempted to subdue China with a military club and thereby not only nullify their debts, but also cover losses through indemnities and reparations imposed on China to restore the lost status of "hegemon". One pretzel from the Pentagon recently announced that a likely clash with China would occur within the next 10 years. Therefore, the mattresses went to break the INF Treaty, in order to untie their hands in order to better prepare. Only late they realized it.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 7 August 2019 08: 16
        +1
        Welcome soldier
        Quote: Nyrobsky
        late they realized.

        This is probably the most important thing! To learn from the past is a useful, necessary property of people, peoples and governments of states!
        The Chinese have completed their homework, now they are starting to steer outside ... oh, how striped they do not like it! others are already silent in a rag .... and CORRECTLY!
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 7 August 2019 08: 23
          +2
          Quote: rocket757
          Welcome soldier To learn from the past is a useful, necessary property of people, peoples and governments of states!

          Have a nice one you too hi
          So it would be yes, but this is not characteristic of the Americans, who for the past 15 years have made rake races with their main fun, each time raking the answer more tangibly. The same and their youngsters (Ukraine, Georgia, etc.) are taught yes
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 7 August 2019 08: 48
            +1
            Yes, let them jump! Only they are so not small and "spiritualized" that after their "leaps" there are many grief and sacrifices around! So sho drive them to jump into a separate territory would be very useful for everyone around!
  3. lopuhan2006
    lopuhan2006 6 August 2019 13: 27
    +3
    The possibility of war 0, those are zero! These are ordinary cash games, a billion here, and a couple of hundred billion there, and now some part of the cash from the market has left and you can print again.
  4. maden.usmanow
    maden.usmanow 6 August 2019 13: 28
    -1
    And what will China hold its assets in?

    There is no alternative to the dollar and US bonds.
    1. Sergey1987
      Sergey1987 6 August 2019 14: 40
      +3
      Quote: maden.usmanow
      And what will China hold its assets in?

      There is no alternative to the dollar and US bonds.

      In gold. Just the Russian Federation, China and Japan are actively buying up. And it’s not just that Yuan did it in international currency.
      1. Blackmokona
        Blackmokona 6 August 2019 15: 28
        +1
        There isn’t so much in the world of gold
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 7 August 2019 08: 56
          0
          Quote: BlackMokona
          There isn’t so much in the world of gold

          The stronger and more attractive will be the currency with gold security. yes
          1. Blackmokona
            Blackmokona 7 August 2019 09: 24
            0
            Such a country is very easily ruined.
            For example, Russia leads the gold security of the ruble.
            The United States is exchanging a couple of trillions of dollars for rubles, and demand gold for all the rubles they purchased.
            Russia defaults, gold security withdrawn
      2. zlinn
        zlinn 6 August 2019 15: 33
        +1
        gold commodity market, i.e. its price depends only on demand, and the internal raw material value is not significant, which means that it is a very unreliable asset
        1. Ros 56
          Ros 56 6 August 2019 18: 16
          +3
          Exactly, and cut paper with American presidents fear what value.
      3. Stone
        Stone 6 August 2019 16: 35
        -2
        Full money supply along with long-term deposits (including pension) and government loan bonds. The amount of $ 80.9 trillion.
        Investments in derivatives alone (derivatives of the derivatives market) range from $ 600 trillion to $ 1,2
        All world gold costs $ 7,8 trillion (all silver - $ 14 billion).

        Source: https://finfocus.today/skolko-v-mire-deneg.html
  5. maden.usmanow
    maden.usmanow 6 August 2019 13: 34
    +4
    The Chinese will not do anything with their part of the US public debt.
    If they drop it, the dollar will fall.
    All of China's export earnings will collapse along with the dollar.
    They in the world do not trade in RMB.
  6. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 6 August 2019 13: 41
    +4
    Debtors in the 90s often "ordered" creditors ... To "not show" ... wassat
    1. akims
      akims 6 August 2019 19: 14
      +1
      And lenders - guys with soldering irons ... It is interesting to knock out debt from striped penguins who should be hired? And the size of the soldering iron is also interesting laughing
      1. Mountain shooter
        Mountain shooter 6 August 2019 19: 23
        +1
        Quote: akims
        And the size of the soldering iron is also interesting

        I remember in the 90s it was called "rectal polygraph" ... It was often added that the efficiency is close to 100%!
  7. Nevsky_ZU
    Nevsky_ZU 6 August 2019 13: 48
    +1
    After breaking the USA with North Korea, Venezuela and Iran. I already doubt that the United States is capable of such conflicts as with China. The bet will be on the new mechanisms of color revolutions.
    1. maden.usmanow
      maden.usmanow 6 August 2019 13: 56
      0
      The United States is doing very well with China.
      1. Nevsky_ZU
        Nevsky_ZU 6 August 2019 14: 11
        0
        Quote: maden.usmanow
        The United States is doing very well with China.

        In terms of what? Collaboration or potential conflict? Open your mind.
      2. Sergey1987
        Sergey1987 6 August 2019 14: 41
        -1
        Quote: maden.usmanow
        The United States is doing very well with China.

        Is a trade war good?
  8. Amateur
    Amateur 6 August 2019 13: 48
    +7
    China serves around 10%. ... Beijing understands that if they skillfully manipulate their investments in the fifth part US public debt

    Again problems with arithmetic. The fifth part is 20%. So how much - 10% or 20%. This is in ONE sentence.
    The author is again a writer!
  9. korriphila
    korriphila 6 August 2019 13: 58
    -1
    China is investing in US government bonds not because it is profitable, but because there is nowhere else ...
    1. koks
      koks 6 August 2019 16: 54
      -1
      Quote: korriphila
      China is investing in US government bonds not because it is profitable, but because there is nowhere else ...

      Or maybe they do?
  10. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 6 August 2019 14: 11
    +3
    Harsh US-China Rhetoric
    Lovely armor, only amuse.
    The most radical-minded experts in Russia and the West say that the first military conflict between the United States and China may soon take place with unpredictable consequences for the whole world.
    Valerian, sir, 3 times a day.
    China serves about 10%. But China would not invest in a completely unprofitable and insolvent project. Beijing understands that if they skillfully manipulate their investments in fifth partUS public debt
    So the fifth or tenth, sorry, I did not study well at school feel
    1. naidas
      naidas 6 August 2019 21: 34
      0
      By the end of last year (2018) on the balance sheet of the Chinese Central Bank, there were US $ 1,12 trillion of government bonds. total US debt of 22,5 trillion.
  11. Chaldon48
    Chaldon48 6 August 2019 14: 17
    0
    China will never voluntarily start sawing a green dollar branch, as it is very firmly attached to it.
    1. naidas
      naidas 6 August 2019 21: 46
      0
      Quote: Chaldon48
      green dollar branch

      It’s rather a green dollar stranglehold:
      To maintain competitive export prices:
      When the dollar gets cheaper, Beijing uses the available stocks of American currency to buy treasury bonds. The acquisition of treasuries leads to an increase in demand for the dollar and, as a consequence, to its strengthening. (Today, Trump again cursed at the yuan against the dollar, threatened to write somewhere).
  12. Nestorych
    Nestorych 6 August 2019 15: 34
    -1
    It is equal to absolute zero!))
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. koks
    koks 6 August 2019 16: 52
    +1
    It's funny to read such articles, it's like honey, I was going to fight with bees ..))))
    Now, if the United States managed to bail China and Russia .. This is where the profits would go over the top
  15. Adimius38
    Adimius38 6 August 2019 17: 53
    0
    may they not go to war. The economic interests of China and the United States are very closely related, no one will chop off his hand which feeds.
  16. yehat
    yehat 6 August 2019 18: 04
    +1
    Quote: korriphila
    China is investing in US government bonds not because it is profitable, but because there is nowhere else ...

    You forget that in China there was a period of mass export of capital, as we have now
    now they are moving away from this practice, realizing that the financial resources will be useful to themselves,
    but it started just recently.
  17. yehat
    yehat 6 August 2019 18: 09
    0
    Quote: Nevsky_ZU
    After breaking the USA with North Korea, Venezuela and Iran. I already doubt that the United States is capable of such conflicts as with China. The bet will be on the new mechanisms of color revolutions.

    Do not underestimate the United States - there are a lot of forces there.
    but greed destroys them, because they want to deal with everyone at once, and what they can allocate to China is almost too tough for him in terms of the ordinary army, navy and aviation. The only thing that China cannot prevent so far is a global nuclear strike. In other matters, in order to make them feel sick, it is enough to shoot in volley not at China, but at Antarctica. The result will be close.
  18. Krasnodar
    Krasnodar 6 August 2019 18: 38
    -1
    US Pts failed project. Especially while they are able to service their duty laughing
    I will say more - without the States, the Chinese economy is absolutely worthless.
  19. abc_alex
    abc_alex 6 August 2019 18: 45
    0
    . Of the total US debt, China serves about 10%.


    What a strange phrase. To service a debt means to bear interest obligations on it. China does not.
    China is the HOLDER of the US government debt, and they serve it themselves.