China's Big Yugoslav Strategy
Before China was Yugoslavia. And not only she
All the continuous admiration of the Middle Kingdom, which is demonstrated by Russian and not only journalists, can, however, be compared with quite well-known examples. For example, with the very ill-fated Yugoslavia.
And that is, it seems that the comrades Yugoslavs did not seem to reject the ideas of socialism, but were politically and economically oriented only to the West with 1949. Recall: it seems that socialist, Slavic and Orthodox Yugoslavia had much better relations with the FRG than with the USSR. Relations with the USSR were very, very difficult. But, as already mentioned, the Yugoslavs actively traded with the West and took loans there. And the people of Yugoslavia went to work, too, in many respects, to West Germany. Something like that.
The Yugoslavs lived much better than the inhabitants of the USSR, and by and large richer than a large part of Eastern Europe. And the technology they had was often more modern, and they carried out a very independent foreign policy, and the army was very good (both in terms of armaments and level of training). Just today it is somehow quickly forgotten (what happened before the 90-ies). But in the 60-e - 70-e Yugoslavia looked very, very worthy. Largely due to Western loans and access of its goods to Western markets. Tito did "come to success." But not for long.
Already in the 80-s, the Yugoslavs started having serious problems both with the standard of living and with the repayment of those very loans ... That is, no one in the West was going to simply fatten the people of Yugoslavia and arrange for them an economic “paradise”. All this was done intentionally and did not last long. And one of the demands of foreign lenders in 80's was the cessation of subsidies to economically backward territories and regions. What led to the growth of social and inter-ethnic tensions.
By the way, the successful Yugoslav example was promoted in Poland and Romania (do as there, and you will live as there, richly and independently). Warsaw and Bucharest bought it ... and began to acquire modern Western equipment for Western loans, to sell products to Western markets for currency ... They were waiting for a bummer - the West simultaneously refused to acquire it and tightened the conditions for the payment of loans, which led to a socio-economic crisis both in Poland and in Romania.
That is, the very “help” to the Yugoslavs was provided for a reason. It was a "multiple flow". And this very “help” was to be returned with large percentages; they simply did not talk about this to the Yugoslavs. That is, all this has already been repeatedly. We see nothing new. China is not growing at the expense of any "internal" solutions. China’s “rapid breakthrough” is mainly due to external reasons. He was granted a loan and open markets, and here he was “flooded”. Something like this.
Approximately according to the same principle, the “Japanese economic miracle” was organized after WWII; without external recharge it would have been impossible. And throughout the world, newspapers admired "what a fine fellow these Japanese are." So no matter how good they are, without creating the external conditions of a miracle in the Land of the Rising Sun, it would never have happened. The reasons for it were primarily served not by some mythical Japanese virtues, but by quite specific preferences for the accelerated development of the "unsinkable aircraft carrier." As soon as the “Japanese economic miracle” ceased to be necessary (and this is the end of 80's), it was immediately blown away. And 25 years of recession ... M-yes, and where are they, samurai virtues?
In the beginning, 80-s no longer needed the “Yugoslav economic miracle.” For some reason. And Serbs, Croats and other Bosnians immediately had big problems. If your well-being depends on a “good foreign uncle”, then it must be borne in mind that a “good uncle” can turn off the tap at any time, as the Japanese in 1941 have blocked the supply of oil. And put forward an ultimatum.
As Hitler was given a lot of money for the restoration of Germany, allowed not to pay reparations (Hitler!), And then pushed to the East ... And Stalin could endlessly “negotiate” with him and offer a variety of concessions, our Anglo-Saxon partners had much more powerful leverage on the foreign policy of the Reich.
That is, the economic and political crisis of Yugoslavia 80's is not at all accidental. It was originally intended. Mnogohodovochka. And Yugoslavia was never able to become a truly independent state - the western partners overthrew the Yugoslav economy with a slight movement of the hand. Everything suddenly became very bad. And the population, accustomed to a satisfying, comfortable life, immediately had a lot of questions to the leadership of the country, after which a nationalist map was played ...
But once again: the break with the USSR in 1949, the subsequent close "friendship" with the West and the subsequent complete rout - all these links one chains. The Yugoslav leadership, led by the "genius" Tito, was bred as children. And if someone does not know, then the main opponent of the JNA (the Yugoslav People's Army) was supposed to be the ATS, but not NATO, something like that. So those who are crying for "torn Serbia", brush away the tear from your eyes.
And now, apparently, even in 90-ies, the Serbian leadership could not understand anything, all the time it seemed to them that this was a “mistake” and it was possible to agree with the West. At about the same time, at the end of WWII, the Germans struggled to "negotiate" with the allies. And not by chance - the rise of the German military machine in the 30-e was impossible without the help of the Anglo-Saxons: financial, technical, and political. And the Germans had a complete misunderstanding of the situation: we are “our own”, we are at war with the Russians, as you asked ... what's the matter? Why do you destroy a system in which you yourself have invested billions?
China and the United States. Strange couple
That is what we see today in China, differs only in the scale of what is happening. No more. China is actively using the very “winning strategy” that the Germans, the Japanese and the Yugoslavs tried to use before it. And until a certain point she worked. And then she stopped working.
Just because, acting quite reasonably, the Anglo-Saxons never engaged in "political charity." And they always have to pay dearly for their “help”. A sign of the rationality and independence of the Chinese leadership could serve as a sudden “dismount” from this very theme and a reversal to certain independent actions. But as we all see, this is not happening.
Even in relation to Germany and Japan (not to mention Yugoslavia) China Today is too big, and America today has neither the desire nor the ability to continue the previous economic relationship with it. And this is not Donald Trump's caprice, as many might think, this is the harsh need to save the remnants of the American economy. This is not an “economic war”, it is an attempt to completely revise / break the previous relationship.
"The remnants of the American economy" - it is not at all a word for it. If somewhere arrived, somewhere must fall. The rapid rise of China is explained very simply: there dragged production from the United States, the EU and even Japan. It was "dragged". And, respectively, in Europe, the United States and Japan shut down. What led to the loss of taxes and jobs. At a certain point, the situation became critical, and Trump is not one person. Trump is behind a very powerful American lobby, and it is pointless to “clean up” him, the current policy is not the idea of a single person. In general, this is a national “rescue strategy”.
One can argue long and tediously whether the Americans will succeed in this or not, but this is not the essence. The bottom line is that Trump (oddly enough!) Is not alone. He, sorry for the directness, not a damn lonely! Behind its policy are very serious (money!) People. And we have everything Trump da Trump ... It’s not the whole thing about Trump, or rather, not in it alone. Such is American policy today (foreign and domestic), although it meets with fierce resistance even within America itself.
And China has no chance at all to "continue what was." Impossible is by definition. Everything - gone "that era." As the Chinese themselves say, "the color of the sky has changed." Of course, it was great to receive the very investments, open new production and increase exports. But everything ever ends. China already too big for this little planet. And you have to be a very naive person so as not to understand this. Developed countries are beginning to violently defend the remnants of production and close markets. The era of free trade is over.
But for this turn of events, China was totally not ready. In principle, there are no “solutions” for the new era. There is no “transition to a new model” (without the rapid growth of exports). For some reason, in the US and China trade war, everyone automatically supports China (many). It is absolutely incomprehensible why: in the era of sanctions, China did not do anything particularly good for us - at first it seemed that it would not accept “international” sanctions against the Russian Federation, then it turned out - it did! And now what? Second, the United States, as it were, is not obliged to ensure a huge positive trade balance for the PRC. Well, they do not have to, and everything, no matter how we relate to them.
And here we must also say that China is leading a "stupid war" - a war in which it is impossible to win by definition. Today's mega-export of Chinese goods to the United States has long been paid for by the Chinese themselves ... through a credit facility. Well, it can not continue by definition. It can not, because it is a complete economic absurdity. At one time, the United States was able to “launch” the Japanese economy and раск raskochegar ’it because: a) the American economy was much more b) it was healthy economy. That is, in 50-e - 60-e years of 20-century, the situation was fundamentally different.
Today, China’s real economy is already more American, and the latter is very difficult to call healthy. That is, theoretically, today the American economy cannot fulfill the role of a “locomotive” and a “donor”. Generally can not, although very many of this is not able to understand. And China, in turn, is categorically not ready to take on the role of the same “locomotive”, it is fundamentally not ready. The Chinese for this overly selfish.
Whatever anyone may say, but after the WWII, the United States for a long time in one way or another served as a locomotive. That was, that was. For a very long time, the American market was the largest and most solvent! And the United States "let" on him Korean, German, Japanese and other goods. The product is not enough to produce - it must be sold. Somewhere. In the actions of the United States there was very little charity, and yet!
Does China have a real strategy?
China is categorically not ready for something like this; on the contrary, it wants to sell more and buy less. In order to play the role of a “locomotive”, China would have (as everyone already understood) open its market and start buying Japanese, Russian, Korean, European goods. Then yes. Then China could replace the United States, and the yuan could replace the dollar. But the Chinese do not want to do this in principle. And the United States, in its current state of the economy, will no longer play the role of a donor.
Many were surprised when Trump demanded “protection” from Europeans / Saudis. Somehow it looked strange to the superpower and leader of the free world. So, the United States is no longer a superpower, and the maintenance of the former army is extremely expensive for them. That is, Trump did not announce some new realities, no, realities already have a place to be, Trump just pointed to them. But neither the Europeans, nor the Japanese, nor the Chinese were ready for this (and here V.V. Putin even ran a little ahead).
But the Chinese just observed some kind of "hard breaking", they apparently assumed another 20 years to move along the same trajectory. And we, too, some analysts repeated, like parrots, that by 2030 (35?), China will bypass the US ... That's all, the movie is over. Trump (and those who stand behind him) clearly made it clear that the old trade will be gone. And then not a whim and do not twist a single showman. This is just new objective realities. American economy already less Chinese and she is seriously ill.
But the ability of the Chinese leadership to restructure the economy into a new regime is in serious doubt. The very fact of a serious change in the economic course (and a political one as well) causes doubts. China has achieved a great deal and has risen very strongly over the past three decades, but the inertia of this movement will not last long, and the external source is actually turned off.
However, it seems that the Chinese leadership (elites) are so naive that they continue to think within the paradigm of the “big Yugoslavia”. And by the way, yes, China, oddly enough, is also very multinational (although not in such proportion). And between the regions there are also giant (growing) contradictions. And there is practically no opportunity to flood problems with money.
- Oleg Egorov
- fedselsovet.online
- Our friend is China
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Era haberdasher
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