Who won and who lost in Ukraine
The next stage of the struggle for power in Ukraine after the parliamentary elections is approaching the finish line. In September, it will become clear what kind of power has been established in this state torn by contradictions. Both internal and external forces are involved in this struggle, whose goals and interests are fundamentally different. Of internal forces, this is Zelensky with his like-minded people, oligarchs, pro-Nazi and “pro-Russian” forces and the population of the country. Of the external players - two superpowers: the United States, personifying the "collective" West, and Russia.
The elections showed the results achieved by internal and external forces in the struggle for power in Ukraine. Formally, Zelensky and his party “The Servant of the People” won an indisputable majority, he had a blank check for the full power in the country and the independent formation of state governance structures. Outwardly, it looks that way, but one should not forget that he did not come to power on his own. Behind him stands the “godfather” Kolomoisky, as well as the Trump people who led and led him, starting with the election campaign. Now at the political Olympus, there are three centers of power: Zelensky with his inner circle and the people of Trump and Kolomoisky in his team. The new president would like to be an independent figure and pursue his policy, but who will allow him that! Two other centers have placed around him looking and clearly mark the corridor of its capabilities.
In this regard, Zelensky is far from independent in making decisions; all his activities will be to search for compromises between these centers of power, and who he will become, an independent statesman or a puppet in the hands of Americans or Kolomoisky, depends on many factors. So far, he has not shown his will, attempts by his entourage to present him as president have not been successful, and the masses already called him Zeal for the spinelessness. He has not yet used the credit of trust issued by the population; other centers of power beat him up.
Approximately the same situation at the end of 90-x was in Russia, when Yeltsin's entourage brought Putin to power. Then the president found strength and defended state interests, although the remnants of Yeltsinism are still attached to power.
The main beneficiary in Ukraine, of course, is the United States, for them this party was initially a win-win. No matter who wins the election, he will pursue a pro-American policy in Ukraine, there is no other way. Having provoked a coup in Ukraine, the United States pursued the goal of creating an anti-Russian base from Ukraine to put pressure on Russia. The unleashing of the war in the Donbas and the Nazi terror, organized by the Poroshenko regime, turned Ukraine into a Russophobic state, and it will be very difficult to return it to the pre-war state. Ukraine has become different, and the concept of US actions has begun to change compared with 2014. Military operations in the Donbas require only expenses from the USA, and business wants to earn money in this territory.
Western corporations would like to invest in arable land, ports, railways, and banking and make money from it. Therefore, Zele got into the head that the privatization of land was inevitable, and he had repeatedly stated this. As you know, “money loves silence,” and in order for them to enter Ukraine, the country needs peace, and ending the war at this stage can work for the interests of the United States. The desire of the overwhelming majority of the population for peace and the statements of Zeli fit well into this concept. The war in the Donbass can be stopped not because the population of Ukraine wants it, but because it can be profitable for the United States, they now do not want to spend money on Ukraine, but earn in this territory, and the war only hinders it.
The cessation of war and the establishment of trade, but not friendly, and especially allied, relations between Ukraine and Russia will reduce the expenses of Americans for the maintenance of a thieving Ukrainian government, and they can earn here. Especially since it all fits into Trump's strategy for the economic payback of political action abroad. In this direction, the US can interact with Russia, but Ukraine must remain a Russophobic state and under the new government. These trends have long been caught by Kolomoisky, and his "peace-loving" rhetoric and attempts to please Russia speak of the insight of this cynic.
The Ukrainian oligarchy (except for Kolomoisky) suffered serious losses in this election, almost all the lured political heavyweights, on which the oligarchs always put, flew. The oligarchs managed to get their people into parliament on party lists, but most of them are not from the first echelon of politicians; they still have to gain political weight to solve the tasks to which they have been delegated.
Akhmetov suffered the most serious losses, for the first time he will not have his own factions in parliament and, in all likelihood, there will not be any influential figures in power. Pinchuk in this campaign was focused on Soros and the American Democrats with their nourished Vakarchuk and the Voice party, which the Americans had a hard time pushing into parliament. This party received less than six percent of the vote and will have no influence in parliament. Moreover, Pinchuk's position is not as stable in the light of Trump’s irreconcilable enmity with Democrats. Firtash Americans banned in advance from the game, accusing him of financial fraud and achieving extradition to the United States, where he was awaited by an American court. By this move, the United States deprived the party of Medievalchuk - Boyko’s main “financial bag”.
Kolomoisky with his project “The Servant of the People”, which he launched in 2016 year with the release of the film of the same name, received the greatest dividends in this campaign. This cynic is the most serious player in the Ukrainian political field, and he will try to make maximum use of the results of the victory of Zelia in increasing his capital. According to experts, Kolomoisky in parliament has about fifty of his deputies, and he may have a “golden share” when making fundamental decisions in parliament.
There are serious contradictions between the two centers of power, the Americans and Kolomoisky, and their interests do not coincide in all. The USA is a stronger center of influence, the power of a superpower is behind them, so Kolomoisky will be forced to act only as a subordinate within the corridor set aside for him, in which he can rob the state. Knowing his indefatigable appetites and lack of principle in achieving commercial goals, Americans would not really like to see him surrounded by a new president, but he is already there, and his people have entered the closest circle of significant figures, and it is not so easy even for Americans to remove him from there. Nevertheless, a compromise can be reached between them, for example, now Poromoisko is stripping off Poroshenko’s hands, other oligarchs may turn out to be, and pragmatic Americans do not disdain to use his services to start an oligarchic war.
The Nazi government led by Poroshenko in this political cycle suffered a crushing defeat. Since 2014, the president, the parliament with the constitutional majority and the state vertical ensured the construction of the Nazi state, all power was in their hands. Now all this is lost, and they go into opposition. Only three pro-Nazi parties with a scanty result passed to the parliament, all together they own less than 17% of votes, and mostly they are not from the first echelon of politicians, they can not decide anything in parliament, and their lot is to organize provocations and hysterics about betrayal of ideals putschists.
There are no representation in the parliament from the population of the Southeast, the so-called “pro-Russian” forces in the person of the Medvedchuk-Boyko HMIC, declaring that they represent the Southeast, have no relation to it, they solve their purely commercial issues under this “roof” . This party will have its small (to 50 deputies) faction, which will be in opposition and also will not be able to decide anything. The benefit of this faction will still be, at the parliamentary level, it can declare the need to normalize relations with Russia and defend its position.
This party does not enjoy special support in Ukraine, as it has repeatedly proved itself a treacherous entity, in its lists only the odious environment of the beneficiaries of this party business project of Medvedchuk and Firtash, there is not a single representative of the South-East. The Russian leadership is focused on this group, since there is no one else to lean on, as they say, on bezrybe and cancer fish.
Apparently, the most important conclusion from what happened is that a mass protest against the ruling and opposition camarilla spontaneously ripened in society. The most interesting thing is that no one practically campaigned for this, the population massively throughout the country refused to trust the ruling regime. There was no such unanimity in Ukraine, it was a protest vote against the system of power built by the Nazis, and the sentence to their course. Only the islands of the old government remained, which lead the rearguard battles and go to the marginal field.
This is undoubtedly an achievement, the society did not want to see the Nazis who went bankrupt en masse, and this is not the credit of Zeli, if someone else was in his place, the same thing would have happened, people just got tired of military and Nazi hysteria and want peace and calm in the country. Society has not yet defeated Nazism, it is a passive vote without weapons and the barricades suspended its evolution, but the results may not be what they expected.
The virtual servant of the people party that came to power and its exotic leader do not say anything concrete about ways to solve the problems facing the country, but they confidently say about the implementation of the ideas of libertarianism, which imply the removal from the state of almost all social obligations to protect the population. To raise the living standards of the population, huge investments are also needed in the destroyed economy of Ukraine, but no one is going to invest anything there, without this, the standard of living will only fall.
A natural question arises: will the population receive the satisfaction of their inquiries by voting massively for Zel in the hope that he will pursue a policy in the public interest? I think that everyone is waiting for complete disappointment, their idol won and got full power, but he has no resources to implement the promised. This victory can be Pyrrhic, it does not have a real team and specialists for carrying out transformations. There is also no program of necessary actions, in his environment too many people, to say the least, pursuing completely different goals, and the main beneficiary of the United States does not set the goal of creating a prosperous state in Ukraine.
At this stage, there is a serious confrontation between the three centers of power, between Zelei and his inner circle, who are trying to make him a strong and independent president, between Zelei and Kolomoisky, who needs a weak and decisive self-interested president, and between Zeleas and Americans who need confidence sitting in his chair president and unconditionally fulfilling their commands. What center of power will win, while it is difficult to say, this process is complex, it depends on many factors inside and outside Ukraine.
What elections showed
The elections showed the results achieved by internal and external forces in the struggle for power in Ukraine. Formally, Zelensky and his party “The Servant of the People” won an indisputable majority, he had a blank check for the full power in the country and the independent formation of state governance structures. Outwardly, it looks that way, but one should not forget that he did not come to power on his own. Behind him stands the “godfather” Kolomoisky, as well as the Trump people who led and led him, starting with the election campaign. Now at the political Olympus, there are three centers of power: Zelensky with his inner circle and the people of Trump and Kolomoisky in his team. The new president would like to be an independent figure and pursue his policy, but who will allow him that! Two other centers have placed around him looking and clearly mark the corridor of its capabilities.
In this regard, Zelensky is far from independent in making decisions; all his activities will be to search for compromises between these centers of power, and who he will become, an independent statesman or a puppet in the hands of Americans or Kolomoisky, depends on many factors. So far, he has not shown his will, attempts by his entourage to present him as president have not been successful, and the masses already called him Zeal for the spinelessness. He has not yet used the credit of trust issued by the population; other centers of power beat him up.
Approximately the same situation at the end of 90-x was in Russia, when Yeltsin's entourage brought Putin to power. Then the president found strength and defended state interests, although the remnants of Yeltsinism are still attached to power.
USA to Ukraine main beneficiary
The main beneficiary in Ukraine, of course, is the United States, for them this party was initially a win-win. No matter who wins the election, he will pursue a pro-American policy in Ukraine, there is no other way. Having provoked a coup in Ukraine, the United States pursued the goal of creating an anti-Russian base from Ukraine to put pressure on Russia. The unleashing of the war in the Donbas and the Nazi terror, organized by the Poroshenko regime, turned Ukraine into a Russophobic state, and it will be very difficult to return it to the pre-war state. Ukraine has become different, and the concept of US actions has begun to change compared with 2014. Military operations in the Donbas require only expenses from the USA, and business wants to earn money in this territory.
Western corporations would like to invest in arable land, ports, railways, and banking and make money from it. Therefore, Zele got into the head that the privatization of land was inevitable, and he had repeatedly stated this. As you know, “money loves silence,” and in order for them to enter Ukraine, the country needs peace, and ending the war at this stage can work for the interests of the United States. The desire of the overwhelming majority of the population for peace and the statements of Zeli fit well into this concept. The war in the Donbass can be stopped not because the population of Ukraine wants it, but because it can be profitable for the United States, they now do not want to spend money on Ukraine, but earn in this territory, and the war only hinders it.
The cessation of war and the establishment of trade, but not friendly, and especially allied, relations between Ukraine and Russia will reduce the expenses of Americans for the maintenance of a thieving Ukrainian government, and they can earn here. Especially since it all fits into Trump's strategy for the economic payback of political action abroad. In this direction, the US can interact with Russia, but Ukraine must remain a Russophobic state and under the new government. These trends have long been caught by Kolomoisky, and his "peace-loving" rhetoric and attempts to please Russia speak of the insight of this cynic.
Prospects for the oligarchy
The Ukrainian oligarchy (except for Kolomoisky) suffered serious losses in this election, almost all the lured political heavyweights, on which the oligarchs always put, flew. The oligarchs managed to get their people into parliament on party lists, but most of them are not from the first echelon of politicians; they still have to gain political weight to solve the tasks to which they have been delegated.
Akhmetov suffered the most serious losses, for the first time he will not have his own factions in parliament and, in all likelihood, there will not be any influential figures in power. Pinchuk in this campaign was focused on Soros and the American Democrats with their nourished Vakarchuk and the Voice party, which the Americans had a hard time pushing into parliament. This party received less than six percent of the vote and will have no influence in parliament. Moreover, Pinchuk's position is not as stable in the light of Trump’s irreconcilable enmity with Democrats. Firtash Americans banned in advance from the game, accusing him of financial fraud and achieving extradition to the United States, where he was awaited by an American court. By this move, the United States deprived the party of Medievalchuk - Boyko’s main “financial bag”.
Kolomoisky with his project “The Servant of the People”, which he launched in 2016 year with the release of the film of the same name, received the greatest dividends in this campaign. This cynic is the most serious player in the Ukrainian political field, and he will try to make maximum use of the results of the victory of Zelia in increasing his capital. According to experts, Kolomoisky in parliament has about fifty of his deputies, and he may have a “golden share” when making fundamental decisions in parliament.
There are serious contradictions between the two centers of power, the Americans and Kolomoisky, and their interests do not coincide in all. The USA is a stronger center of influence, the power of a superpower is behind them, so Kolomoisky will be forced to act only as a subordinate within the corridor set aside for him, in which he can rob the state. Knowing his indefatigable appetites and lack of principle in achieving commercial goals, Americans would not really like to see him surrounded by a new president, but he is already there, and his people have entered the closest circle of significant figures, and it is not so easy even for Americans to remove him from there. Nevertheless, a compromise can be reached between them, for example, now Poromoisko is stripping off Poroshenko’s hands, other oligarchs may turn out to be, and pragmatic Americans do not disdain to use his services to start an oligarchic war.
The Nazi government led by Poroshenko in this political cycle suffered a crushing defeat. Since 2014, the president, the parliament with the constitutional majority and the state vertical ensured the construction of the Nazi state, all power was in their hands. Now all this is lost, and they go into opposition. Only three pro-Nazi parties with a scanty result passed to the parliament, all together they own less than 17% of votes, and mostly they are not from the first echelon of politicians, they can not decide anything in parliament, and their lot is to organize provocations and hysterics about betrayal of ideals putschists.
There are no representation in the parliament from the population of the Southeast, the so-called “pro-Russian” forces in the person of the Medvedchuk-Boyko HMIC, declaring that they represent the Southeast, have no relation to it, they solve their purely commercial issues under this “roof” . This party will have its small (to 50 deputies) faction, which will be in opposition and also will not be able to decide anything. The benefit of this faction will still be, at the parliamentary level, it can declare the need to normalize relations with Russia and defend its position.
This party does not enjoy special support in Ukraine, as it has repeatedly proved itself a treacherous entity, in its lists only the odious environment of the beneficiaries of this party business project of Medvedchuk and Firtash, there is not a single representative of the South-East. The Russian leadership is focused on this group, since there is no one else to lean on, as they say, on bezrybe and cancer fish.
Public protest and Pyrrhic victory
Apparently, the most important conclusion from what happened is that a mass protest against the ruling and opposition camarilla spontaneously ripened in society. The most interesting thing is that no one practically campaigned for this, the population massively throughout the country refused to trust the ruling regime. There was no such unanimity in Ukraine, it was a protest vote against the system of power built by the Nazis, and the sentence to their course. Only the islands of the old government remained, which lead the rearguard battles and go to the marginal field.
This is undoubtedly an achievement, the society did not want to see the Nazis who went bankrupt en masse, and this is not the credit of Zeli, if someone else was in his place, the same thing would have happened, people just got tired of military and Nazi hysteria and want peace and calm in the country. Society has not yet defeated Nazism, it is a passive vote without weapons and the barricades suspended its evolution, but the results may not be what they expected.
The virtual servant of the people party that came to power and its exotic leader do not say anything concrete about ways to solve the problems facing the country, but they confidently say about the implementation of the ideas of libertarianism, which imply the removal from the state of almost all social obligations to protect the population. To raise the living standards of the population, huge investments are also needed in the destroyed economy of Ukraine, but no one is going to invest anything there, without this, the standard of living will only fall.
A natural question arises: will the population receive the satisfaction of their inquiries by voting massively for Zel in the hope that he will pursue a policy in the public interest? I think that everyone is waiting for complete disappointment, their idol won and got full power, but he has no resources to implement the promised. This victory can be Pyrrhic, it does not have a real team and specialists for carrying out transformations. There is also no program of necessary actions, in his environment too many people, to say the least, pursuing completely different goals, and the main beneficiary of the United States does not set the goal of creating a prosperous state in Ukraine.
At this stage, there is a serious confrontation between the three centers of power, between Zelei and his inner circle, who are trying to make him a strong and independent president, between Zelei and Kolomoisky, who needs a weak and decisive self-interested president, and between Zeleas and Americans who need confidence sitting in his chair president and unconditionally fulfilling their commands. What center of power will win, while it is difficult to say, this process is complex, it depends on many factors inside and outside Ukraine.
Information