The problem is in person. Will the Americans replace Erdogan?

Turks do not get away with verbal censure

The international press continues to brutally scourge the Turkish leadership, and not least the president Recep Erdogan, whose decision to buy the Russian C-400 air defense system provoked a tangible crisis inside NATO. Although the wave of ostentatious anger quickly began to fade, everyone agrees that the ambitious state will not get away with verbal censure. Although complete isolation, it also does not threaten.

For example, Egypt Today wrote that Turkey, under the American law CAATSA, may receive a lot of bans. Obviously, no administration of the White House can allow a “second Iran”, that is, such a precedent, when the closest US ally in the region suddenly became an equally fierce enemy. A similar opinion is shared by the press of the Persian Gulf, where historically the attitude towards the Turks is very, very biased. However, regarding specific measures of unity among specialists there is no. It all depends on the mood in the US Congress.

"Iranian" punishment

The punishment for Ankara has so far come up with a completely “Iranian” one: the ban on the supply of fifth-generation American fighter aircraft F-35 almost completely copies the similar embargo of 1979 on the transfer of the latest high-tech destroyers, which were originally built in the States for the Imperial fleet Iran, and now replenish the Taiwan Navy.

Naturally, following the military will be followed by dual-use technologies, as well as purely civilian products. Let us recall the same Iranian Bushehr NPP, which began to be built by West German specialists (as the first nuclear power plant in the Middle East), and the Russians completed it three decades later.

Among the responses from the White House, it is possible that the US nuclear weapons from the Turkish airbase Incirlik in storage in the territory of another NATO country. But this step is also unlikely, since the deprivation of the “nuclear umbrella” risks inducing Ankara to create its own arsenal.

"Sultana" will be replaced?

However, the entire "Iranian set" for Turkey is unlikely to include. The reasons for this are quite numerous and varied.

Let us mention, perhaps, only one thing: Turkey 2019 of the year is not as important an element of the American architecture of global security as was the Shah of Iran of the year 1979, whose geographical position covered the region from the Soviet borders to the Persian Gulf. The "betrayal" of Tehran at that time would perhaps be comparable in importance with the hypothetical withdrawal of West Germany from NATO or the break of the American-Japanese pact at the height of the Cold War. The current demarche of the Turkish president is, of course, a nuisance, but not very big. Erdogan can leave his post, voluntarily or not, very soon, and then Ankara’s pro-Western course will be fully restored.

In other words, in Turkey, the problem is only in person, and Iran for the Americans and Arabian monarchies is a systemic threat. These are completely different levels.

So the most realistic scenario is to replace Erdogan with the less obstinate “Sultan”. And not necessarily classical for Turkey through a coup, but completely democratic mechanisms.

Comments

[Separ DNR]

The problem is in person. Will the Americans replace Erdogan?

There was an attempt, but Erdogan showed agility, which the United States did not expect. I would not pose the question: Replace, not replace, but: will they try to do it, and with whose hands this time?

[Ross xnumx]

The problem is in person. Will the Americans replace Erdogan?
They took it and just replaced it ... With such madness, yes, consider yourself the rulers of the world? Aren't you taking on a lot, gentlemen from across the ocean? And Erdogan "eat", and sit on the moon with Mars?
Yes, there is no response. They simply do not exist, for those who ... Ask the same Un ...

[Mikhail m]

The response from the White House does not exclude the possibility of moving American nuclear weapons from the Turkish Incirlik airbase to storage facilities in the territory of another NATO country. But this step is unlikely, since deprivation "nuclear umbrella"Runs the risk of inducing Ankara to create its own arsenal.

Good umbrella. Target for our missiles. At the same time, it is not even the Turks who rule the "umbrella". And they slurp a bitter rain.

[Barmaleyka]

these toads can

[parusnik]

Erdogan, in opposition, is more dangerous for the United States than Erdogan in power .. And his demarches are so minor troubles .. They quarrel and make peace ...

[knn54]

There is an interesting "tradition" among the Anglo-Saxons. First they kill the receiver, who is usually younger.
Well then the candidate’s turn.
First, Kirov was killed. Moreover, on the day when the German consul left for home, Stalin did not succeed.
In 1973, Franco with a "bouquet of sores" left the post of head of government, entrusting this post to his successor, Admiral Luis Carrero Blanco. In the same year, the receiver was killed ... by the ETA terrorists.
I think that other examples can be found.

[Mavrikiy]

Quote: knn54

There is an interesting "tradition" among the Anglo-Saxons. First they kill the receiver, who is usually younger.
I think that other examples can be found.

Offhand: Ivan the Terrible and his son, Yes, if in tsarism these messengers and healers rummaged there were rich.

[Doliva63]

Quote: knn54

There is an interesting "tradition" among the Anglo-Saxons. First they kill the receiver, who is usually younger.
Well then the candidate’s turn.
First, Kirov was killed. Moreover, on the day when the German consul left for home, Stalin did not succeed.
In 1973, Franco with a "bouquet of sores" left the post of head of government, entrusting this post to his successor, Admiral Luis Carrero Blanco. In the same year, the receiver was killed ... by the ETA terrorists.
I think that other examples can be found.

Today, enemy voices said that Erdogan disappeared somewhere. They lie, don’t they?

[Nyrobsky]

The response from the White House does not exclude the possibility of moving American nuclear weapons from the Turkish Incirlik airbase to storage facilities in the territory of another NATO country.

Yes, sort of like already moved? In my opinion, there was information that this action took place shortly after the failed attempt to overthrow Erdogan, and these "blanks" mattresses were dragged to Germany precisely because of fears that the Turks could create problems for them with the Incirlik base, after it became known the fact that in a conversation with Lavrov, his colleague D. Kerry let it slip a few hours before the coup saying - "Erdogan will not be in politics soon" making it clear that no political bets should be made on him, thereby confirming the direct participation of the United States in the coup attempt ...

[Essex62]

So no one doubted that. All byak due to puddles flow. It’s bad that they do it very often.

[Servisinzhener]

At the moment, the change of Erdogan is very doubtful. Because security forces are cleared of the putschists.
Also dubious is the option of the Orange Revolution. He does not make the impression of a man who will follow the crowd in the square.

[yehat]

the author of the article is mistaken in the fact that Erdogan is only 1 person.
these are the views of a large stratum of society, which is expressed by 1 person, otherwise he would have been removed for a long time
and changing the figure will not change anything, because the leading force will choose a man of another, but defending interests close to Erdogan.