Turkey vs Russia: what is happening in Idlib?

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In the north-west of Syria, fighting continues. They are becoming more fierce, while it is still impossible to talk about the approach of their final. Idlib Province has become a place of intersection of interests not only of the Syrian government and the opposition, the Kurdish resistance and the opposing Turkish army, introduced into Syria, but also Russia and Turkey - two states that play a crucial role in the civil war in Syria.





Who is fighting with anyone in the province of Idlib


Before turning to a detailed analysis of the conflict in this Syrian province, it is necessary to briefly describe what the province itself is, or, more correctly, Idlib Governorate. Located in northwestern Syria, Idlib Governorate is bordered in the northeast by the Aleppo Governorate, in the south by the Hama Governorate, and in the west by the Lattakia Governorate. In the north, Idlib adjoins the Syrian-Turkish border.

Before the beginning of the civil war, about 1,5 million people lived in Idlib, and only about 165 thousand people lived in the administrative center of the province - the city of Idlibe of the same name. As in all of Syria, in the province of Idlib there has always been an ethnically varied composition of the population. In addition to Sunni Arabs, Syrian Turks, Christian Arabs, and Kurds also live here. Naturally, it did not go without interethnic and interfaith conflicts before, but the beginning of the civil war led to the situation in Idlib, as in other provinces of Syria, becoming extremely tense, and the peoples living alongside each other for centuries turned into the worst enemies who are ready to fight each other for life and death.

In the early years of the civil war, numerous refugees from other Syrian governorates rushed to Idlib province, where the situation was even more tense. Tens of thousands of refugees settled in the territory of Idlib, someone managed to move to neighboring Turkey. Only now in the provinces of Hama and Deir ez-Zor, the Syrian government, with the help of the Russian military, managed to normalize the situation, after which from 40 thousand to 80 thousand refugees expressed a desire to leave Idlib and go to their permanent homes in their home provinces.

The proximity of the Turkish border and the presence of the Turkic population identified interest in Idlib from Ankara. In Turkey, panic fears the gain of Syrian Kurds, who are closely linked to the illegal Kurdish Workers Party. Therefore, the Turkish leadership regards its military operation in Syria, first of all, as a component of the struggle against the spread of separatist sentiments in Turkish Kurdistan.



In the province of Idlib, Turkey supports, first of all, the related Turkic population, however, given its small number, it still seeks to rely on the Arab-Sunni population. The National Liberation Front includes most of the opposition groups operating in Idlib to the Syrian government. The front is financed and armed by Turkey, and the Turkish government doesn’t hide the supplies. weapons Idlib is already known to everyone, because trucks with weapons for Syrian rebels regularly cross the border between Turkey and Idlib governorate.

In addition to the NLF, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham operates in Idlib. This organization is another reincarnation of the banned “Dzhebhat al-Nusra” in Russia, which was closely associated with the structures of Al-Qaida (also banned in the Russian Federation). In Idlib, militants of the Islamic Party of Turkestan, manned by Uygur Chinese Muslims, also fight. Turkey has always patronized the Turks, the Uighurs, and therefore there is nothing surprising in their appearance in a Syrian province far from their native Eastern Turkestan.

By the way, not only with weapons and money, Turkey helps the NFO fighters. No less valuable and assistance intelligence data. Most likely, it is the Turkish military intelligence that informs the militants about the actions and plans of the Russian and Syrian troops. Without such informational support, the militant group, even taking into account the availability of good weapons, would still not be able to act successfully.

The Turkish leadership views the Arab-Sunni groups as the main counterweight to both the Kurds and the pro-government forces of Syria. And Turkey is not going to weaken, let alone cease the support of the numerous groups operating in Idlib.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Arab Army, with the support of the Air and Space Forces of Russia and Russian special forces, is operating in the province of Idlib against terrorists. And it turns out a strange situation - Russia and Turkey seem to be like partners, they even organized a joint patrol of Idlib, but in fact support the opposing sides. Turkish weapons are fired at Syrian and Russian soldiers, and Russian planes are bombing the positions of terrorist groups linked to Turkey.



Recep Erdogan plays his game. He is interested only in one thing - in strengthening the position of Turkey in the region and in neutralizing the Kurdish formations. His assurances of friendship with Russia should be perceived only as distracting maneuvers, since Turkish and Russian interests in the Middle East are too different.

On the other hand, Turkey is now very far away from the alliance with its main military-political partner, the United States. In Ankara, Washington cannot forgive Washington’s open and very tangible support of the Kurds. After all, the Syrian National Self-Defense Detachments, which in Turkey consider a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, were in fact armed and modernized with the direct support of the American army. Now the Kurds, not the Turks - the main "junior partners" of the United States in the region.

What awaits Russian-Turkish relations?


Naturally, Russia is also very annoyed by the support of the Syrian terrorist groups by the Turks. You can recall how the Turks shot down a Russian plane, how the Turkish army supplies weapons to groups fighting against government forces. Therefore, information is spread in the world media that if Turkey does not refuse to support the terrorists fighting in Idlib, Russia, like the USA, will start cooperating with the Kurdish National Self-Defense Detachments.

Turkey vs Russia: what is happening in Idlib?


In principle, if that were the case, then everything would return to normal. Indeed, at one time the Soviet Union very seriously helped the Kurdish resistance in Turkey. In the 1990s, a large Kurdish diaspora settled in Russia, many of whose representatives did not hide their ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party. That is, for Moscow, ties with the Kurdish resistance are quite natural, another thing is that supporting the Kurds in Turkey, the USSR and Russia never supported them in Syria, since they were not interested in the territorial division of this friendly state.

However, experts in the community doubt that Russia is seriously capable of taking the side of the Syrian Kurds in the current situation. So, Russian orientalist Oleg Gushchin in an interviewFree press”Stressed that Russia now appreciates well-established relations with Turkey, and threatening Ankara with supporting the Kurds is a very serious insult to the Turkish leadership, in fact, putting Russia on the brink of a war with Turkey in Syrian territory. And in Moscow it will not go.

At the same time, according to Guschin, the Turks cannot cope with the problem of Idlib. And this, too, has its reasons. First, for many years, Ankara has exposed itself as one of the main defenders of the Syrian Sunnis, opposition to Bashar Assad. And if now the Turkish army begins to fight in Idlib against the Sunnis, they simply won’t understand. Secondly, Turkey will not risk its people.

It is worth noting that if Turkey goes to war with the Syrian jihadist groups, then in fact it will be on the side of its worst enemies - the Kurdish resistance and the government troops of Bashar al-Assad. Therefore, Oleg Gushchin sees the solution to the Idlib conflict only in enabling the Syrian Arab army to destroy the terrorists in Idlib itself.

In September, 2018, Russia and Turkey agreed to create a demilitarized zone in Idlib 20 kilometers wide. Thanks to this, a powerful offensive by the Syrian army on the positions of the rebels was prevented, which allowed the latter to avoid fighting with the troops loyal to Damascus and to preserve their combat potential “until better times. The creation of such a zone was a serious concession to Turkey, but now, more than six months later, we see that this decision has not changed anything. Rebels and jihadists continue to control areas of the province of Idlib and remain “bone in the throat” for the central government of Syria.

If we allow the Syrian government troops to independently solve the problem of the destruction of terrorists, with limited assistance from Russia and Iran, then good Russian-Turkish relations will be preserved. After all, then there will be no formal reasons for their deterioration, which would inevitably come if Russia acted on the side of the Kurds.



Of course, while the Syrian government troops, with the support of Russia, will destroy the terrorists entrenched in Idlib, Turkey will be outraged, Recep Erdogan will once again demand that Vladimir Putin cease fire immediately, but this is all a diplomatic game, in reality Ankara will have to accept what is happening. Moreover, it has no way out - against the background of deteriorating relations with the United States, Turkey needs Russia as a constant bogey to intimidate the West - they say, you will not play according to our rules, we will generally reorient on Moscow. By the way, Washington is very afraid of this, since the loss of Turkey will lead to a change in the whole balance of power not only in the Middle East, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole.

Turkey builds ties with Damascus


Not so long ago it became known about a very interesting meeting, which failed the director of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Hakan Fidan (pictured) and the Director of the National Security Bureau (BNB) of Syria Ali Mamluk.

Relations between Ankara and Damascus remain very tense, so this meeting immediately aroused interest around the world. Even more interesting is the fact that, as it turned out, the Turkish and Syrian special services are in contact with each other at least with the 2016 year, and the delegation of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization visited Damascus at least five times.



What do Turkish and Syrian intelligence officers have in common? What problems can they solve? Of course, first of all, this is the resolution of the situation in Idlib. But it is worth noting that with regard to the Kurds, Damascus and Ankara can act as partners, since neither Erdogan nor Assad are interested in creating an independent Kurdish state in the territory of Syrian Kurdistan.

At the same time, Turkey categorically refuses to comply with the demands of Russia and Syria to transfer the vast territories of Idlib province under control of Damascus. Ankara fears that the Russian and Syrian troops, if Turkey does not intercede for the rebels, will quickly get rid of them, after which the Turkish presence in Idlib will also be ended. In turn, for Russia, the issue of control over the south-western regions of the province of Idlib is also of fundamental importance, since the rebels use these areas to organize attacks on the Russian Hmeimim airbase in the neighboring Latakia governorate.

The conflict in Idlib is far from political resolution. The Syrian province and its population have become hostages of a large-scale political game being played in the region by Russia and Turkey. In the meantime, fighting continues, and civilians suffer.
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28 comments
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  1. 0
    11 June 2019 05: 21
    It is necessary to help those forces in the region who are interested in the departure of the Turks from Syria!
    1. +6
      11 June 2019 05: 30
      First of all, we need to help ourselves ... to ensure the security of our bases.
      In this gadyushnik everyone has their own interest and the main thing for us is not to get into the war for the interests of others.
      1. 0
        11 June 2019 05: 39
        Same Lech hi -Our inaction, as well as concession to the Turks in the region, was perceived as our weakness! That is precisely why the Turks are taking over the Syrian lands! For Russia is weak, did not intercede in Idlib for the local population!
        1. +3
          11 June 2019 05: 43
          Well entered and then what?
          The Turks will immediately pump up Idlib with weapons and manpower, and we will engage in armed conflict with an unknown result ... no, here we must act for certain and without haste.
          To exhaust the enemy on contradictions ... to exhaust his resources and after that to take him warm ... it takes time.
          In matters of war with the Turks, one should always follow the precepts of Kutuzov ... an expert on the Turks.
          1. 0
            13 June 2019 02: 01
            1811 - Battle of Ruschuk))))) Definitely agree)
        2. +4
          11 June 2019 08: 53
          Quote: Thrifty
          -Our inaction, as well as concession to the Turks in the region, was perceived as our weakness!

          And how was this to be perceived as our strength?
      2. +2
        11 June 2019 08: 59
        Quote: The same Lech

        In this gadyushnik everyone has their own interest and the main thing for us is not to get into the war for the interests of others.

        Siria the viper? And why bother to fight for the adder? Putin declared his goal to restore the integrity of Syria, which is clear that it will never be. Now what is the purpose? Unclear. The war for the base, as it is shallow. There is no base for participation in the war.
    2. +2
      11 June 2019 07: 30
      A friend Rezhep decided to squeeze out Idlib, is it really incomprehensible, they are already reporting new large deliveries to militants of arms. And without ground operations, the army of the Russian Federation or Iran, Idlib could not be returned, months of fighting showed the strength of Assad.
  2. +6
    11 June 2019 06: 25
    Ankara fears that Russian and Syrian troops, if Turkey does not intercede for the rebels, will quickly end them, after which the Turkish presence in Idlib will be put to an end.
    ... But you don’t want to leave oh ... You can leave such a piece of land for yourself .. Repeat the story with Northern Cyprus .. And if Idlib also has oil or something else, all the more ...
    1. dSK
      -1
      11 June 2019 15: 57
      Quote: parusnik
      You can leave such a piece of land for yourself .. Repeat the story with Northern Cyprus.

      If we compare the maps of the past and the century before last, the Turks drove a wedge into Syria along the Mediterranean coast. If they manage to "grab" Idlib, Syria will practically lose its direct access to the sea.
      1. 0
        11 June 2019 16: 50
        The century before last and at the beginning of the last century, all these lands were the territory of the Ottoman Empire.
        1. -2
          12 June 2019 09: 00
          ... and even earlier, these lands belonged to the Ataman Empire ..
          1. 0
            12 June 2019 10: 25
            Is this a joke or are you serious? The Ottoman Empire is the Ataman)
            1. -3
              12 June 2019 10: 38
              .. quite rightly .. The baptism of Russia by fire and sword led to this .. Moses - the Prince of Tverskoy led his army out through the frozen Volga (in front of the ice), founded Kazan and went to Constantinople ....
  3. +1
    11 June 2019 07: 28
    In the meantime, fighting continues, and civilians suffer.

    Panas are fighting, and at lackeys forelocks are cracking.
  4. -3
    11 June 2019 08: 48
    You can do it right, the result of your flirting with the Turks.
  5. +2
    11 June 2019 08: 49
    . Turkish weapons fired on Syrian and Russian soldiers

    It doesn’t matter, the main thing is that it is directed against the Kurds! After all, they are trying to convey this to us. What does the Kurds have to do with it? Where are they from Idlib? Is Idlib against the Kurds really fighting or against us?
    . the Turks themselves are not able to cope with the Idlib problem
    For the Turks, Idlib is not a problem, but an asset.
    . in fact, Ankara will have to come to terms with what is happening. Moreover, she has no choice
    So far, Russia is putting up with what is happening, not Turkey. But Turkey does not need any way out. She is happy with everything.
  6. +1
    11 June 2019 08: 53
    Erdogan once said that up to 2 million Syrian refugees are in Turkey, how many of them can the Turks put under arms in case of large-scale military operations? By the way, something recently has been almost inaudible about the pro-Iranian fighters from fatimayuns with zeynoboyunami, they are settled there on new lands or slowly went home in connection with the impoverishment of the hand of the ksir.
  7. xax
    0
    11 June 2019 08: 56
    "In the 1990s, a large Kurdish diaspora settled in Russia, many of which did not hide their ties with the Kurdistan Workers' Party"

    Most of the Kurds who have settled in Russia are "normal, Soviet" Kurds. These are refugees from the Karabakh conflict. I don’t think these connections are the rule for them.
  8. 0
    11 June 2019 13: 54
    Recep seeks to make a buffer zone between Syria and Turkey by squeezing Idlib. Turkey has always had manners to capture a piece of foreign territory. On the contrary, Russia needs an integral Syria, and not a handful of specific principalities.
    1. -2
      11 June 2019 17: 36
      Don’t talk nonsense, Turkey is most interested in the inviolability of Syria’s borders. The US Golans declared for Israel and the loudest protest against this was also from Turkey. All the troubles of the war in Iraq and Syria originated from the idea of ​​"promised lands" from a neighbor, from the idea to implement the acquisition of lands under their subordination as a result, indicated in their flag by two blue lines - from the Nile to the Euphrates. If you follow the events, you can easily see who most wants the separation of Iraq and Syria. There are six countries in the region. , who, for the sake of their monarchical throne, support this idea with their actions, although in words they are like for Islamic solidarity. It is no coincidence that Turkey-Russia-Iran somehow want to create a counterbalance. Turkey and Iran, only these two countries from the Islamic world, not in words, but acting oppose the idea of ​​two blue lines. If Turkey did not enter Al-Bab and Afrin (and northeastern Iraq), then Kurdish states would have long been built from the Iranian-Iraqi border to the Syrian sea coast. creation of a wedge in three places (on the map) put in fact the disintegration of these countries. Add to all the history of the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan and as a result what it turned into with the action of Iraqi troops with huge support from Turkey. These territories remained in Iraq and Turkey did not he appropriated even a single meter of Iraqi land. The same will happen in Syria, there will be peace, (and a long process) the Turks will go to their borders without capturing a single meter or kilogram of land. They need a border with Syria and Iraq, not "Kurdistan Region Republic ", which have long fraternized with the United States and the Zionists and their servants are.
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  9. +1
    11 June 2019 14: 15
    Everything is much simpler. the patron saint of terrorists does not want to kill wards.
  10. -4
    11 June 2019 15: 16
    finally found another Afghanistan on their own head. While the Americans swelled a trillion into the war very interestingly when Russia runs out of money for this victorious company, well, or for how many years the population will be cut off retirement, I think 75 will be just right ....
  11. -1
    11 June 2019 19: 33
    Whoever and whatever he says, thinks, wants, only matters matter. Arms deliveries speak for themselves. In Turkey, they are de facto ready for hostilities in Idlib. Moreover, no one is going to sit quietly in Idlib itself. So there is no alternative. Erdogan asked - he was respected, now time and patience are gone. For Erdogan, this is not the biggest and main problem, it greatly hinders the United States, and it is unlikely that he himself will be able to hold out for long.
  12. 0
    12 June 2019 01: 14
    Turkey vs Russia: what is happening in Idlib?
    And what is to be expected is happening in Idlib - the eternal enemy of Russia in the person of the main Janissary continues to haul the face of the table of the current ruler of the Russian Federation, no respect, a plane was shot down, the ambassador was killed, but winked ... the main thing is to build the South Stream (at any cost), instead of "rubber" tomatoes, apricots without sugar, and other dried fruits! sad
  13. +1
    12 June 2019 11: 08
    What do Turkish and Syrian intelligence have in common?


    What do Russian and American intelligence officers have in common? It is no secret that such meetings and contacts have a place to be, and I follow the logic of the author - are we friends with the United States now? I have long noticed that the official media want to strengthen the view that Russia + Turkey + Syria are working together and many authors are trying to impose the same point of view. And what in fact? But in fact, Turkey supplies the militants with all types of weapons, ammunition, human resources (militants aren’t coming out of thin air?), And it doesn’t supply them to help the Syrian army in the struggle for the integrity of the country, but on the contrary, these people are fighting openly against Syrian Armed Forces. Turkey also officially (not hiding) its ambitions in the territory of Syria, wants to make a buffer zone of 30-35 kilometers (due to the territory of Syria), and this is only an official figure, the unofficial control zone will be MUCH more. Not to mention other territories that are in one way or another controlled by Turkey. And after that they want to convince us that Syria and Turkey pursue common interests? It is like a friendship between a mouse and a cat. By the way, the author in the article forgot to mention the negotiations between Erdogan and Trump at the end of last year, this is a very important point .... although there are disagreements between the US and Turkey on different issues, but here is the position that Assad should leave and a vision on Syria, in which it is divided into parts - here they converge, and the Kurds .... does anyone really believe that after the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, the United States will be concerned about the interests of the Kurds? Kurds for them were just a tool, and that’s it.
  14. 0
    12 June 2019 15: 19
    In the photo of the Turks - tankers, all the hats are different. Who studied what, or what? .. For Idlib, I am calm. I worry more for a four-day work week.
  15. 0
    13 June 2019 01: 53
    I see one solution to the problem in Idlib - drop a vacuum bomb there, which was recently put into service.
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