Turkey vs Russia: what is happening in Idlib?
Who is fighting with anyone in the province of Idlib
Before turning to a detailed analysis of the conflict in this Syrian province, it is necessary to briefly describe what the province itself is, or, more correctly, Idlib Governorate. Located in northwestern Syria, Idlib Governorate is bordered in the northeast by the Aleppo Governorate, in the south by the Hama Governorate, and in the west by the Lattakia Governorate. In the north, Idlib adjoins the Syrian-Turkish border.
Before the beginning of the civil war, about 1,5 million people lived in Idlib, and only about 165 thousand people lived in the administrative center of the province - the city of Idlibe of the same name. As in all of Syria, in the province of Idlib there has always been an ethnically varied composition of the population. In addition to Sunni Arabs, Syrian Turks, Christian Arabs, and Kurds also live here. Naturally, it did not go without interethnic and interfaith conflicts before, but the beginning of the civil war led to the situation in Idlib, as in other provinces of Syria, becoming extremely tense, and the peoples living alongside each other for centuries turned into the worst enemies who are ready to fight each other for life and death.
In the early years of the civil war, numerous refugees from other Syrian governorates rushed to Idlib province, where the situation was even more tense. Tens of thousands of refugees settled in the territory of Idlib, someone managed to move to neighboring Turkey. Only now in the provinces of Hama and Deir ez-Zor, the Syrian government, with the help of the Russian military, managed to normalize the situation, after which from 40 thousand to 80 thousand refugees expressed a desire to leave Idlib and go to their permanent homes in their home provinces.
The proximity of the Turkish border and the presence of the Turkic population identified interest in Idlib from Ankara. In Turkey, panic fears the gain of Syrian Kurds, who are closely linked to the illegal Kurdish Workers Party. Therefore, the Turkish leadership regards its military operation in Syria, first of all, as a component of the struggle against the spread of separatist sentiments in Turkish Kurdistan.
In the province of Idlib, Turkey supports, first of all, the related Turkic population, however, given its small number, it still seeks to rely on the Arab-Sunni population. The National Liberation Front includes most of the opposition groups operating in Idlib to the Syrian government. The front is financed and armed by Turkey, and the Turkish government doesn’t hide the supplies. weapons Idlib is already known to everyone, because trucks with weapons for Syrian rebels regularly cross the border between Turkey and Idlib governorate.
In addition to the NLF, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham operates in Idlib. This organization is another reincarnation of the banned “Dzhebhat al-Nusra” in Russia, which was closely associated with the structures of Al-Qaida (also banned in the Russian Federation). In Idlib, militants of the Islamic Party of Turkestan, manned by Uygur Chinese Muslims, also fight. Turkey has always patronized the Turks, the Uighurs, and therefore there is nothing surprising in their appearance in a Syrian province far from their native Eastern Turkestan.
By the way, not only with weapons and money, Turkey helps the NFO fighters. No less valuable and assistance intelligence data. Most likely, it is the Turkish military intelligence that informs the militants about the actions and plans of the Russian and Syrian troops. Without such informational support, the militant group, even taking into account the availability of good weapons, would still not be able to act successfully.
The Turkish leadership views the Arab-Sunni groups as the main counterweight to both the Kurds and the pro-government forces of Syria. And Turkey is not going to weaken, let alone cease the support of the numerous groups operating in Idlib.
Meanwhile, the Syrian Arab Army, with the support of the Air and Space Forces of Russia and Russian special forces, is operating in the province of Idlib against terrorists. And it turns out a strange situation - Russia and Turkey seem to be like partners, they even organized a joint patrol of Idlib, but in fact support the opposing sides. Turkish weapons are fired at Syrian and Russian soldiers, and Russian planes are bombing the positions of terrorist groups linked to Turkey.
Recep Erdogan plays his game. He is interested only in one thing - in strengthening the position of Turkey in the region and in neutralizing the Kurdish formations. His assurances of friendship with Russia should be perceived only as distracting maneuvers, since Turkish and Russian interests in the Middle East are too different.
On the other hand, Turkey is now very far away from the alliance with its main military-political partner, the United States. In Ankara, Washington cannot forgive Washington’s open and very tangible support of the Kurds. After all, the Syrian National Self-Defense Detachments, which in Turkey consider a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, were in fact armed and modernized with the direct support of the American army. Now the Kurds, not the Turks - the main "junior partners" of the United States in the region.
What awaits Russian-Turkish relations?
Naturally, Russia is also very annoyed by the support of the Syrian terrorist groups by the Turks. You can recall how the Turks shot down a Russian plane, how the Turkish army supplies weapons to groups fighting against government forces. Therefore, information is spread in the world media that if Turkey does not refuse to support the terrorists fighting in Idlib, Russia, like the USA, will start cooperating with the Kurdish National Self-Defense Detachments.
In principle, if that were the case, then everything would return to normal. Indeed, at one time the Soviet Union very seriously helped the Kurdish resistance in Turkey. In the 1990s, a large Kurdish diaspora settled in Russia, many of whose representatives did not hide their ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party. That is, for Moscow, ties with the Kurdish resistance are quite natural, another thing is that supporting the Kurds in Turkey, the USSR and Russia never supported them in Syria, since they were not interested in the territorial division of this friendly state.
However, experts in the community doubt that Russia is seriously capable of taking the side of the Syrian Kurds in the current situation. So, Russian orientalist Oleg Gushchin in an interviewFree press”Stressed that Russia now appreciates well-established relations with Turkey, and threatening Ankara with supporting the Kurds is a very serious insult to the Turkish leadership, in fact, putting Russia on the brink of a war with Turkey in Syrian territory. And in Moscow it will not go.
At the same time, according to Guschin, the Turks cannot cope with the problem of Idlib. And this, too, has its reasons. First, for many years, Ankara has exposed itself as one of the main defenders of the Syrian Sunnis, opposition to Bashar Assad. And if now the Turkish army begins to fight in Idlib against the Sunnis, they simply won’t understand. Secondly, Turkey will not risk its people.
It is worth noting that if Turkey goes to war with the Syrian jihadist groups, then in fact it will be on the side of its worst enemies - the Kurdish resistance and the government troops of Bashar al-Assad. Therefore, Oleg Gushchin sees the solution to the Idlib conflict only in enabling the Syrian Arab army to destroy the terrorists in Idlib itself.
In September, 2018, Russia and Turkey agreed to create a demilitarized zone in Idlib 20 kilometers wide. Thanks to this, a powerful offensive by the Syrian army on the positions of the rebels was prevented, which allowed the latter to avoid fighting with the troops loyal to Damascus and to preserve their combat potential “until better times. The creation of such a zone was a serious concession to Turkey, but now, more than six months later, we see that this decision has not changed anything. Rebels and jihadists continue to control areas of the province of Idlib and remain “bone in the throat” for the central government of Syria.
If we allow the Syrian government troops to independently solve the problem of the destruction of terrorists, with limited assistance from Russia and Iran, then good Russian-Turkish relations will be preserved. After all, then there will be no formal reasons for their deterioration, which would inevitably come if Russia acted on the side of the Kurds.
Of course, while the Syrian government troops, with the support of Russia, will destroy the terrorists entrenched in Idlib, Turkey will be outraged, Recep Erdogan will once again demand that Vladimir Putin cease fire immediately, but this is all a diplomatic game, in reality Ankara will have to accept what is happening. Moreover, it has no way out - against the background of deteriorating relations with the United States, Turkey needs Russia as a constant bogey to intimidate the West - they say, you will not play according to our rules, we will generally reorient on Moscow. By the way, Washington is very afraid of this, since the loss of Turkey will lead to a change in the whole balance of power not only in the Middle East, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole.
Turkey builds ties with Damascus
Not so long ago it became known about a very interesting meeting, which failed the director of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Hakan Fidan (pictured) and the Director of the National Security Bureau (BNB) of Syria Ali Mamluk.
Relations between Ankara and Damascus remain very tense, so this meeting immediately aroused interest around the world. Even more interesting is the fact that, as it turned out, the Turkish and Syrian special services are in contact with each other at least with the 2016 year, and the delegation of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization visited Damascus at least five times.
What do Turkish and Syrian intelligence officers have in common? What problems can they solve? Of course, first of all, this is the resolution of the situation in Idlib. But it is worth noting that with regard to the Kurds, Damascus and Ankara can act as partners, since neither Erdogan nor Assad are interested in creating an independent Kurdish state in the territory of Syrian Kurdistan.
At the same time, Turkey categorically refuses to comply with the demands of Russia and Syria to transfer the vast territories of Idlib province under control of Damascus. Ankara fears that the Russian and Syrian troops, if Turkey does not intercede for the rebels, will quickly get rid of them, after which the Turkish presence in Idlib will also be ended. In turn, for Russia, the issue of control over the south-western regions of the province of Idlib is also of fundamental importance, since the rebels use these areas to organize attacks on the Russian Hmeimim airbase in the neighboring Latakia governorate.
The conflict in Idlib is far from political resolution. The Syrian province and its population have become hostages of a large-scale political game being played in the region by Russia and Turkey. In the meantime, fighting continues, and civilians suffer.
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