There is no Chinese threat

- How much will meat cost in 2000?
- I think about fifty yuan.
(Joke of the seventies of the twentieth century)

I will now say this, that a significant part of my regular readers will anger to the depths of my soul. Namely: the Chinese threat does not exist. And Siberia, too, China does not capture. And in Russia, and Siberia, there is only one threat for us - Russian. Only we are able to destroy our country ourselves, as in 1991, to declare sovereignty from ourselves, as in 1990, or to invite here the next “Chicago boys” to tell us how we can better rob ourselves, as in 1992- m

Religion KU

Recently, in our "patriotic" circles began another round of hysteria of the Chinese Threat (CG) called "Sentry! The Chinese are coming !!! ". Anything you read on this topic on the Internet - “The occupation of Russia by China is inevitable” “The Chinese army is able to seize the Far East with one blow”, “The closest neighbor is a future military superpower”, “The Beijing tiger is made to jump” - and stuff like that.

Only lazy today, it does not discuss options for the occupation of Russia and Siberia, China. But for some reason no one is discussing a well-historically known and much more likely option: the option of temporarily entering the territory of the northern part of China by parts of the Russian army, "if anything happens." Unlike the Chinese, we have already done this many times. How, after all, managed to before?

The stories about the "growing density of the population of China" because of which they (allegedly) are absolutely obliged to be aggressive and take away foreign lands - a myth for poorly educated people. In terms of population density, China ranks about tenth in Asia (from notable countries), yielding to South Korea three times, two and a half times Japan, two times less than India, the Philippines, Vietnam and the DPRK. Even Pakistan, which is why no one ever thinks too overcrowded - much more densely populated than China. If China is bound to be aggressive - that is why quite aggressive much more densely populated India, with its billion people? Why is not aggressive Bangladesh, where the population density is eight times higher (!) Than in China? (1)

However, for supporters of KU lead figures and calculations are meaningless. This is a religion. Does anyone convince the evidence-based calculation in numbers, that there is no Buddha and could not be?

In addition, China has its own "Siberia" - sparsely populated and almost non-populated western regions, where the population density is forty to fifty times lower than in eastern China, the areas that it is now actively developing, conducting there highways and railways - but Chinese working there, according to conservative estimates, more about a hundred or a hundred and fifty years. KU supporters will not be convinced that due to the new look of a typical Chinese family, which over the past 20 years has passed from rural families to a small family of a modern urban type, in the near future, the population of China, according to calculations of demographers, will inevitably begin not only not to grow and to shrink (and grow old) is exactly the same as the indigenous people of Europe are now declining.

Of course, on the level of emotion in China (as we do, however) made any hot application. Meaning they are not more than in the prior art appeals to give Alyasochku (and even California) back. If we speak not about emotions but about real political practices of the Chinese Government, then they consist not in conducting or encouraging an irresponsible aggressive policy, but in efforts to plan their population in accordance with the needs of the country. Here's how to formulate these goals official Chinese body - the "People's Daily" newspaper:

“The government carries out family planning as one of the main directions of the country's social and demographic policy. In practice, this means a combination of state leadership with the conscious will of citizens. State leadership is that central and local governments develop policies and regulations to control population growth, improve health and living standards and improve population structure, and also plan at the macro level the demographic development of society. ... The main content of family planning: the promotion of late marriage and late childbirth, limiting the number of infants with an emphasis on improving the integrated characteristics of the quality of the nation "

The Chinese Threat, CG is for many people more than just geopolitical fiction. For a huge number of people - this is something like a geopolitical cult, without which alone can not exist. My article will not convince them of anything, no matter what arguments I bring here. KU is almost a religion, and a religion of fanatics. On the phrase "There is no God" offended far less people than saying "the Chinese threat does not exist." The number of forecasts on the Internet "But China tomorrow will take away Siberia from us" will probably soon exceed the number of Chinese on the planet.

But here's the one who committed the legitimate question: How, how China popret to Russia without solving the Taiwan question? - None of the KU fans gives a clear answer. And it’s understandable why: introducing Taiwan’s factor into the Far East formula fundamentally changes the entire Far Eastern agenda, this factor actually makes it inevitable for China to turn any war of aggression into civil war - with high chances of complete collapse of the ruling regime in Beijing, which will not lead to unification, and the collapse of China. In a hypothetical military scenario, any operation on a preliminary “forceful return of Taiwan to the fold of China” is almost certainly a heated conflict between China and the US-British bloc, with the inevitable complete collapse and export-oriented Chinese economy to the United States and zeroing of all its accumulated foreign exchange reserves. And in this story it smells exactly the same - the inevitable disintegration of China itself into provinces. China (more precisely, its aggressive party, the “Chinese hawks”) are here in a state of geopolitical zugzwang: they cannot act against Russia without resolving the pre-Taiwanese issue, risking the collapse of the country, and they cannot solve the Taiwanese issue without the risk of the collapse of the ruling regime itself, risking the same collapse. And intelligent heads in Beijing, judging by the balanced foreign policy they are pursuing, understand this well.

China can conquer Russia.
But only if there is no Army left in Russia
Atomic Bomb and the Russian people

Imagine today Russia without nuclear weapons - this is the same thing, how to imagine Russia without the Army in general - and build from it your cozy geopolitical forecast, where the Russians suffer defeat after defeat. But nuclear weapons in Russian, alas, there is - as it did not want to return to some KU fans. It is impossible to disengage from the factor of nuclear weapons today - it's almost the same as imagining that in Russia there is neither the Russian people nor the Russian Army, and to make predictions of the Russian-Chinese conflict based on this circumstance. I understand that this many would wish. But I don’t understand why the calculations and theories of the “Russian-Chinese conflict” in which “well-known tactics!” Make predictions with “well-known analysts” don't seem to exist - why they are discussing with them, rather than donating to a cozy yellow house with orderlies. .

Let podiskutiruem more about the prospects of modern medicine without antibiotics, for example? And the terrible "microbial threat." After all, "billions of microbes." I as long as there are antibiotics - we must not be afraid of billions of microbes. Since there are nuclear weapons, there is no need to fear any billions, and no countries with a billion people. The strength now is not in the billions.

China has little use of its own, already existing land

It is also worth noting that below, in the south, under China, is not cold Russia, which, in response, can be painful, quite warm, fertile, small and often weak militarily in the country, with the vast Chinese diaspora that has existed there for centuries. But we - after the border conflict with Vietnam - we do not see the slightest attempt to China even though there is something to win. Strange, is not it?

The Chinese often speak of land shortages. But when people in China speak of an acute shortage of land, they always mean fertile lands suitable for irrigated, highly efficient farming - and not the taiga with bears. Also, do not think that China has mastered everything, even in areas of traditional agriculture. China has large internal reserves. According to Professor S.N. Rakovsky, from 1957 to 2000, the PRC population almost doubled (+ 98%), while the arable land area in the country decreased by 1 / 8. In addition, by 2000, the share of transport, trade, communications, finance and other services in China’s economy had already doubled the share of agriculture, reached almost 40% of GDP — and continues to grow. A lot of ground is not necessary to "transport, trade, communications, finance, and other services." The denser the population is, the more effective these sectors of the economy are. And the less dense the population is, the less effective and more costly they are. (2)

China has a weak use of its own, already existing lands, preferring to concentrate its efforts on areas of sustainable irrigated, highly efficient tropical and subtropical agriculture. You may be surprised, but the density of land use here, nearby, in our well-known Ukraine and Moldova is four times higher than in China - about 60% versus 15% of used lands in China. Approximately 80% of available land in China is not used at all. Moreover - in the long term, China does not increase, and reduces the area of ​​arable land. The rest of the land of China - are completely free for exploration and often sparsely populated, and some - even deserted. For their full settlement and development of China would need another two centuries, and it is the most optimistic scenario.

Any big war will destroy China as a state.

But this is not the case, not in the economy, and not only in the economy. Any big war for China today — even a non-nuclear war — is deadly and will destroy it as a state. China is not protected today even from conventional means of destruction, not to mention nuclear. Two thirds of the population of China live in a small part of its territory, in the lower reaches of the three main rivers. Several hundreds of millions of Chinese live in the flooded area, and in the event of a massive dam breakout, entire Chinese provinces will die, disappear from the face of the earth. Agriculture, everything built on water regulation and impossible without one, and industry in these areas will also disappear - and the industries needed for simple physical survival of the population, such as food, will disappear.

Here is a small illustration of all the fragility of the Chinese civilization model. In 1975, Typhoon Nina breaks through one small dam in the headwaters of the River Roo. The resulting wave passes successively along the Rue and Huai rivers, then destroying 62 dams and hydroelectric dams. Hundreds of thousands of people died, housing was lost and 11 millions were affected by the flood. It is the largest hydrocrash in the number of victims. Stories, It is only surpassed by the man-made hydrocaster 1938 of the year, when during the Sino-Chinese War, the Chinese themselves destroyed dams on the Yellow River for military purposes, which immediately, overnight caused more than half a million people to die.

The overwhelm of KU supporters is also in the fact that they confidently predict threats to Russia from China, but do not see the emphasis on monstrous threats to China itself from any collision with Russia. But the reality is that in the case of the Russian-Chinese clinch, China itself will most likely cease to exist as a single state. The ruling circles of Beijing - unlike our KU fans - understand perfectly well that any conflict with Russia means for them, for Beijing, that the Taiwan regime will not miss the opportunity to implement its genetic code, its program - to destroy the CCP hated by it as the “ruling force of the Chinese society, ”to regain its position as the ruling force in the mainland of China, which means to destroy China in the form in which it has existed for the past half century, since the days of Chairman Mao, to reset the“ Chinese matrix ”.

Taiwan key

Taiwan - the key to understand the entire strategic situation in the East. He is the direct heir of the regime of Homildan, ruling earlier in China, and therefore unquestionably pretends not only to survive on an island remote from the mainland, but quite seriously has the right to state his claims to all mainland China. For some reason, for decades in a row waiting for, when China take over Taiwan. But no one predicts a much more likely option - that China will not seize Taiwan, but Taiwan will again seize its lawful patrimony — continental China, or a part of it, subjecting it to its political influence. And the size of the Army and the number of weapons here do not matter. If the process goes on, if the CPC goes bankrupt, in the spirit of how the CPSU went bankrupt in the 1991 year, then Chinese generals and provincial authorities will swear allegiance to Taipei’s regime — the heir of Gomildan — and will not feel like traitors to the country for a second. (4)

It is the Taiwanese regime that is China’s “reserve government” in the event of a serious crisis in the ruling CCP - and, judging by all, such a crisis is not far off. The bourgeois nature of the "grassroots" Chinese economy and the communist nature of the ruling power constitute an ineradicable contradiction, a contradiction that can be resolved only by the death of the CCP as the ruling force of Chinese society - with the inevitable disintegration of the country into enclaves and subjection to coastal and central China to Taiwan.

Yes, China will undoubtedly unite with Taiwan, but it will unite through the disintegration of the most mainland China into - at least - five or seven independent states, with the separation of the southern provinces, Hong Kong, Tibet, Uigurs, Inner Mongolia, and, possibly, Manchuria. And we should prepare not for the seizure by China of Siberia, but for the plans of the return of the Russians to the CER, to Harbin and to Port Arthur.

In the event of the collapse of China’s ruling regime, its collapse into enclaves and the emergence of numerous unstable local governments there, this will become an inevitable challenge. Russians will come to China not with fire and sword, but with a mission of order and goodwill, at the request of the new Chinese authorities themselves, to maintain elementary peace, stop looting and robberies, to actually save the multimillion population. We simply will not have another way out: either we will help the new authorities to restore order on the ground, or tens of millions of refugees rush to us across the borders. We need to prepare not for military, but for humanitarian occupation, for military in form but humanitarian in essence and humane in content actions - as the Russian army in China has always historically acted, leaving behind friends, not enemies. That is our real agenda of the Far East, not mythology KU.

For nearly forty years in a row I have heard about the terrible Chinese threat. God bless her. It's time to separate this religion from the state

Notes:

(1) for different years the population density figures may vary slightly, but the overall picture does not change radically. China Asia parameters - srednenaselonnaya country, and not one of the most densely populated.
(2) We have a similar example, when a high population density predetermines a high share of “transport, trade, communications, finance and other services” products. This is Moscow, which receives a high surplus product mainly in these industries and for these reasons, not at all because of the factor of “robbery of the province”, as many think. By the way, this is one of the important reasons why there should be a lot of Russians. Our provincial malolyude - that's the reason and the source of poverty, not its consequence, as is often thought.
(3) About China, and the inevitability of broad cooperation with him in the development of Siberia - in the article of the author "Patriotic Marketing"
(4) By the way, Taipei in the documents is officially referred to as the "temporary residence of the government of the Republic of China for the time of the communist insurgency." Check out the swing.
(5) China's population density, scheme from the site: china.worlds.ru/maps/pages/density.html

Pay attention to the low population of the border areas with us.

Comments

[radio operator]

It would be great if that was the case. But, unfortunately, a number of facts cannot be ignored.

[Alex]

Kaye facts do not work ?? !! Well, in more detail and without references to "one grandmother said" The author is great! As for the worshipers of religion, KU is absolutely right - you cannot reach them with anything. China will attack and that's it! Paranoid or schizophrenic I don't know. Their Faith does not require Proof.

[typur]

Yes, the facts in the studio, to be honest in China, you feel like being overwhelmed by the Soviets in relations between the party and the people. And all this will end badly for them sooner or later.