Israel’s missile-bombing attack on Iran: scenarios, possibilities, consequences

55
Israel’s missile-bombing attack on Iran: scenarios, possibilities, consequencesConsidering Iran as the main source of threat to the very existence of Israel, its leadership seeks as soon as possible to halt the development of Iran, primarily the implementation of its nuclear program. It is obvious that the mutual geographical location of Iran and Israel precludes the possibility of Israel’s undertaking any other military action than the air operation..

The experience of the last wars shows that only by aerial bombardment it is impossible to resolve the issue of changing the government in the country radically or significantly slow down the implementation of its military programs, it requires a land operation. Therefore, Israel, acting only on its own, can count on achieving only limited military objectives:

1. To provoke a group of other states, primarily the United States, into the military conflict against Iran.

2. Delay for some time the implementation of Iran’s nuclear program.

Geography and Diplomacy

An analysis of the geography of the region shows that the flight of strike groups aviation Israel to the facilities of the Iranian nuclear complex can be carried out on one of three routes:

1. Northern, where Israeli planes will have to fly to the north, and then to the east along the border of Turkish airspace, invading the airspace of Syria and Iraq. The election of this route should be recognized as unlikely, due to its large length (more than 2000 km) and the negative attitude towards Israel from Turkey and Syria, which can put Israeli aviation on the flight route with inevitable violation of the airspace of these countries

2. Central, involving the flight through the territory of Jordan and Iraq. With the shortest length (1500-1800 km), this route involves passage through the airspace of Jordan, which, fearing a negative reaction from the Islamic world (especially after the “Arab spring”), may not allow Israeli aircraft to fly over its airspace. Iraq will not be able to have a significant impact on the possibility of striking Iran, since, without having a viable airspace control system, it is most likely that, with the right route selected by Israeli aircraft, it will not be able to detect Israeli aircraft in its airspace at all.

3. The southern one, which assumes a passage through the airspace of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, has a large length of 2400 - 2600 km. There will also be major diplomatic problems associated with overcoming Egyptian airspace, and also partly Saudi Arabia, which, although very concerned about the growth of Iran’s military power and influence (including its internal political situation, through the Shiite population), nevertheless , claiming to be the leader of the Islamic world, may not provide its airspace to Israeli combat aircraft, realizing that the political losses for it as a result of this step will be much more serious than the ephemeral Infantry from the Israeli attack.

Thus, the most probable routes for the passage of Israeli aviation should be recognized as central and southern. At the same time, for their use, Israel will have to rely on diplomatic support from third countries, first of all, the United States, which will have to reach agreement on the flight of Israeli aircraft from Jordan, and from Saudi Arabia, also consent to provide Israelis with airfields and jump.

If such an agreement is not achieved, then a strike on Iran by Israel will be extremely unlikely. Since the breakthrough of Israeli aviation through the airspace of an Arab country that did not provide Israel with such an opportunity would mean the start of an unmotivated war against it, which could lead to the all-Arab war against Israel, given the Islamization of the Arab world following the Arab Spring.

However, even if all diplomatic problems are resolved successfully, the long-lasting Israeli air operation against Iran will most likely be impossible due to the remoteness of the targets and the need to repeatedly overcome the airspace of neighboring Arab states that do not want to enter into a tough political and military confrontation with Iran.

Therefore, Israel can count on delivering one, in the best case, two strikes on Iran.

Goals, strengths and means

According to most military analysts (in particular, Air Force Military Observer Jonathan Marcus and a staff member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Douglas Barry), Israel may be selected as likely targets for strikes, primarily those who enrich uranium - the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. south of Tehran and the underground factory in Fordo.

In addition, strikes can be applied to facilities where heavy water is supposed to be produced, primarily a heavy-water reactor under construction in Arak, and enterprises for processing uranium ore, primarily the plant in Isfahan.

These objects have good engineering protection. For example, uranium enrichment plants at the plant in Natanz are located in a room buried beneath the ground, and the main production facilities of the plant at Fordo are located deep under the base of the mountain range.

Thus, to ensure the destruction of these objects with the use of conventional ammunition will be almost impossible. It will be necessary to use specialized bombs capable of hitting underground structures, in particular, such as laser-guided GBU-28 weighing 2269 kg with laser guidance, having special penetrating warheads, as well as JNAM 2000-pound bombs.

These munitions are capable of striking objects that are at a depth from 10 to 20 meters underground and are protected by reinforced concrete slabs up to 2 meters in thickness.

To achieve maximum effect, aircraft must drop them from a height of 10-12 thousand meters.

However, an analysis of the nature of the protection of the most important facilities of the Iranian nuclear complex, according to the open press, can be concluded that it will be impossible to ensure the destruction of all these facilities with such ammunition. So in particular, the level of protection of the plant in Fordo will not allow even with the use of such ammunition to ensure the destruction of the main production premises. At best, ancillary facilities of such an enterprise with less protection may be affected.

Having a fairly large fleet of aircraft, Israel will be able to attract to strike on Iran, only a relatively limited number of the most modern aircraft with the greatest range - the latest F-15 and F-16.

Judging by the materials of the open press, the Israeli Air Force has F-72 Model A – D Eagle X-NUMX fighters, F-15 Model I F-25 fighter-bomber fighters, Model I “Strike Eagle”, around the 15 F-138 model I.

F-15 fighters Model A – D “Eagle” and F-15 fighter-bombers Model I “Strike Eagle” when flying over a mixed profile with PTB have a combat radius of about 1300 km with the possibility of combat during 5 min.

The F-16 multipurpose fighters of the listed models, in the shock version with conformal tanks and PTB, 2 × 907 kg with bombs flying large-small-small-high, have a combat radius 1 565 km, and in a fighter version with PTB, 2 × AIM-120 and 2 × AIM-9 to 1700 km at high altitudes.

Taking into account the percentage of combat readiness (90%) and the need to allocate a part of aviation to ensure the air defense of Israel’s territory, to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, given the importance attached by the Israeli government to Iran’s nuclear program, F-50 Model A fighters can be allocated –D “Eagle”, X-NUMX F-15 model I fighter-bombers, “Strike Eagle” model and up to X-NUMX F-25 multi-purpose fighters, models C – D and I. Total around 15 aircraft.

Limiting factors

Considering the need to build a battle formation and coordinated flight to the target of such a number of aircraft, the effective combat radius of application of such a group will be significantly less than those indicated above for single machines. This, even when flying along the shortest central route, will require refueling in the air at least once while flying to the target and back. And on the south - either an intermediate landing at the airfields of Saudi Arabia or at least 2-x refueling in the air when flying to the target and back.

Judging by the materials of the open press, Israel has 8-10 refueling aircraft KS-130H, each of which is capable of transmitting up to 20 tons of fuel in the air, providing one 50 maximum attack aircraft.

That is, the grouping of Israel’s tankers will ensure that no more than 25-30 attack aircraft can operate on Iran’s targets while flying along the central route and no more than 12 — when flying along the southern route, which is not enough to cause any noticeable damage to the Iranian nuclear program.

Hence, the second most important limiting factor is the requirement to secure an Israeli strike with American tankers. The United States clearly understands that in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran and a response from the latter, they will most likely be drawn into a war against Iran for which they are not ready today. In addition, it will be impossible to hide the fact of American support for the Israeli rally. Therefore, the likelihood that the United States will provide Israel with the necessary number of tanker aircraft (and this is 20-30 machines), at least in the near future, is small.

Thus, the possibility of a strike on Iran, Israel will receive only in the case of a successful resolution of all diplomatic problems and the receipt of support from the US tanker aircraft. Overcoming these restrictions is also a kind of indicator for the military intelligence of Iran in determining the possibility of an attack.

Tactic

Building a group of Israeli aviation will most likely include three main echelon: air defense breakthrough, shock, and identify the results of the strike.

In the echelon of air defense breakthrough, given the combat strength and condition of the fighter aircraft of Iran and its air defense system, according to the experience of wars and military conflicts of the 21 century, can be included up to 70-80 aircraft, including up to 40 fighters clearing airspace and escorts, and the rest - airplanes of ground defense and additional intelligence suppression groups.

The strike can consist of up to 120 airplanes, of which 80-90 will comprise attack groups designed to destroy objects of the Iranian nuclear complex, and the rest - escort fighters and combat support fighters.

In-flight impact detection can be enabled up to 20-30 reconnaissance aircraft and escort fighters.

In addition to manned aircraft, operational echelons can be used at the echelons of the air defense breakthrough and detection of the impact results.

The depth of the operational construction of the entire group can reach 150-200 km, with a total duration of its operations over the territory of Iran from 30 minutes to an hour. In this case, the battle formation must be echeloned in height, both on the flight route and in the combat area.

The flight of such a mass of aviation on the route in a single line of battle and at high altitudes, concerted actions and refueling in the air over the territory of another state is practically impossible, which makes it extremely difficult for Israel to ensure operational surprise and practical impossibility to ensure tactical surprise of impact.

Counteraction

In terms of fighter aviation, Iran can counter FNGX-20 F-25A planes to Israel, up to MiN-14 fighter jets to 35 and Fantom F-29 fighters to 30.

Among the ground-based air defense systems, the X-NUMX C-10 air defense missile system with a range of up to 200 km may be significant for repelling an Israeli strike, around 240 an improved Hawk medium-range air defense system (the latest upgrade to the Hawk-150 level increased the range to 3-150 kilometers) and 200 mobile multichannel short-range SAM systems (from 29 to 5 km) Tor-M20, as well as 1 modern, highly robust Pantsir C-10 mobile missile-gun systems.

In addition, it is known about the delivery to Iran of Russia of a modern mobile radio-electronic suppression system “Avtobaz”, which is capable of detecting and simultaneously tracking in a passive mode up to 60 targets within 150 radius of kilometers and warning about the approach of air attacks in 20 minutes, as well as disrupting electronic control systems weapons and communication.

Iran has a developed radar surveillance system and an appropriate air defense command and control system, built mainly on fixed control points. Since the basis of the radar surveillance system is obsolete stations and the air defense control system is not automated, in general, the Iranian air defense system is very vulnerable to damage by modern air defense suppression means.

However, given that Israeli aircraft will operate in very unfavorable conditions, determined by a great distance from its bases, it will most likely not be able to ensure full suppression of the air defense system even in a limited area.

Therefore, with proper construction and actions of the Iranian air defense group, it will be able to render significant opposition to Israeli aviation.

An extremely important aspect of this will be the addition of Iran’s radar field with the actions of F-14A aircraft, which, with their powerful radar, are capable of playing the role of early-warning radar aircraft and control fighter aircraft.

In general, with competent and active (including the full use of fighter aviation with the introduction of all its possible forces into battle) the use of air defense forces and equipment, even under conditions of active interference from Israeli aviation, forces and means of Iran’s zonal air defense (long-range, medium-range and air defense missiles) fighter aircraft) can potentially destroy Israeli aircraft before 20 and thwart 30-40 combat missions with machines.

In addition, the presence of modern, mobile and jamming-proof air defense systems, such as Tor-M1 and Pantsir C-1, capable of autonomous operations, will allow Iran to provide object protection for the 10 order of the most important objects from air strikes to 20 (airplanes , cruise missiles, planning bombs) for each of the objects.

In this case, the loss of the Iranian side in fighters can amount to up to 20-30 machines.

Preliminary findings

In total, taking into account the possible active opposition of the Iranian air defense forces and facilities, the Israelis will be able to disable for a very limited time not more than the 2-s enterprises of the Iranian nuclear complex, which will slightly affect its nuclear program.

If the opposition of Iranian air defense is ineffective, Israel will be able to withdraw for quite a long time (from a year to 3-4 years) all the objects planned for destruction (these are 3-5 enterprises) and slow down the development of Iran’s nuclear program by 1-3, which also will not be crucial.

Thus, Israel’s attack on the facilities of the Iranian nuclear complex will most likely not allow it to have a significant impact on the course of Iran’s nuclear program. The military and political leadership of Israel understands this well. Therefore, it must be assumed that the goal of this strike, if it takes place, will be not so much a violation of Iran’s nuclear program, as Israel’s desire to provoke the US and some European and Middle Eastern countries into war against Iran.
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55 comments
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  1. itr
    -2
    20 June 2012 08: 51
    In my opinion it is easier to launch a missile strike. The distance is not great. Yes, I think it’s finances if it’s 100 times cheaper. And there’s no need to negotiate with anyone. Launched rockets and see until they reach the goal, and on the path of their investigation, most countries simply have nominal air defense or even not at all. It's too wise
    1. +6
      20 June 2012 09: 51
      For the tomahawk, the distances are large, not enough. Yes, and factories underground, it means bunker bombs are needed. The main thing is not even in Iran. The Islamists came to power in power; Israel cannot stand the breath. Syria dozens of tons of chemical weapons from whom it will be. To hit Iran, it’s sitting in a pool of gasoline to light a cigarette and make plans for the future.
      1. itr
        -1
        20 June 2012 09: 54
        but do such rockets exist?
        1. +5
          20 June 2012 10: 05
          Of course they exist, they are only measured in kilotannes.
        2. VAF
          VAF
          +7
          20 June 2012 10: 17
          Quote: itr
          but do such rockets exist?


          Yes .... only in the ground version, but in the sea or aircraft with such a range there is no acre with nuclear warheads.

          But the ground ones are limited by the range of the agreement on the IBRD, although this is a complete "hat", both with us and among the amers ... only on paper!
          1. itr
            -1
            20 June 2012 11: 01
            but who said they don’t have them?
            1. Bunny
              +7
              20 June 2012 15: 54
              Israel cannot do without Americans in any way; therefore, it can only act as a singer, unless of course the amers are allowed.
    2. Inzhengr
      +3
      20 June 2012 09: 51
      In this case, Israel must be beaten with high precision, which missiles will not provide. Therefore, they want the real person to direct. Yes, and protobunker bombs are needed.
    3. VAF
      VAF
      +2
      20 June 2012 10: 14
      Quote: itr
      In my opinion it’s easier to launch a missile strike


      This is purely theoretical, well, Israel simply doesn’t have such, and the Amer’s Axes with the OBCH will not reach far .... +! For the thought

      But if the Amers get involved with all of NATO, then the Saudis will provide their bases, and Kuwait will be the same ... then it will be difficult for the Iranians .... but then the allied bases will be within reach for a preemptive strike from Iran!

      Well, the article is an absolute plus, I did not understand only one thing, why carry out the bomb drop from H 10-12 km and to achieve what is the maximum effect ???
      1. +2
        20 June 2012 10: 37
        The drop of anti-bunker bombs from such a height is needed to achieve the highest dive speed. The shells of such bombs are made of high-strength steel or artillery barrels, which allows them to penetrate the soil to a great depth. And if it is shorter, then the greater the height of the discharge, the more buried the object can be hit.
        1. VAF
          VAF
          +1
          20 June 2012 19: 38
          Quote: Nord
          And if it is shorter, then the greater the height of the discharge, the more buried the object can be hit.


          As far as I know, the acceleration of gravity is a constant value of 9,78 M / s and the bomb fall is carried out only under the influence of gravity (unless of course the Amer’s bomb has a motor in the ass that accelerates it along the trajectory) fellow

          And therefore, the vertical component of air resistance slows down the fall of the bomb, and the horizontal makes the ballistic trajectory steeper than the parabola that the bomb would describe in the void, and creates a lag.
          The rate of fall of the bomb over time increases until the air resistance, increasing in proportion to the square of the speed, reaches a value equal to the weight of the bomb.

          Further, the fall occurs evenly with a speed called the limiting one.

          For modern bombs, this value of the V limit when dropped at a speed of 900 km / h is achieved when dropped from H 0 (!), I.e. the maximum limiting speed of a bomb fall, depending on the weight, is in the range of 220-250 M / SEC !!!!

          Therefore, your opinion on this issue, unfortunately, is fundamentally wrong and erroneous !!! crying
          1. 0
            21 June 2012 00: 00
            Quote: "For modern aerial bombs, such a value of V limiting when dropped at a speed of 900 km / h is achieved when dropped from H 0 (!),"

            I did not understand, but I liked it.
            1. As far as I know, the speed of the carrier when dropping such bombs is limited to 650 km / h. but certainly not 900km / h. Well it is, for accuracy.
            2.V limit is reached when resetting from H-0 ??? What is this, a joke???
            3. If you are not too lazy and count, then you will receive the maximum rate of fall of bombs of this weight when dumping from heights of 10-12 thousand m
            Field tests showed that the maximum penetration depth of JDAM-type bombs is 30m in ordinary soil and 8-12m in rocky and rocky when discharged from exactly 10 thousand meters. We need to dig into the ZVO binder for about 2004, there is a detailed article on this subjects. At one time, he carried out calculations of the security of our buried KP from bombs of this type ... the results are depressing.
            So let me disagree with you. Sincerely.
      2. itr
        -1
        20 June 2012 11: 02
        Today there will be no tomorrow. The big problem is to get help from a big brother and ???
      3. +1
        20 June 2012 14: 18
        Israel has Jericho missiles in service.
    4. FiremanRS
      +1
      21 June 2012 00: 45
      Guys, this is a very good article! Very competent calculation and analysis. The only thing that the author missed was the political component. In response to this blow, whether it be airplane or rocket, the whole Islamic world will stand on its hind legs and we will get universal jihad. Jews will not risk it if the amers do not support them in a new war. It is a war, not a local conflict!
  2. +7
    20 June 2012 08: 55
    It is very doubtful that Israel would risk such a gamble without much, and the effect of such an attack would be doubtful. So until the United States dares to venture into Iran itself, Israel will sit on the pope evenly.
    1. VAF
      VAF
      +3
      20 June 2012 10: 21
      Quote: Sakhalininets
      So until the United States dares to venture into Iran itself, Israel will sit on the pope evenly.


      I absolutely support your thought, +! I will add that until Syria the "problems" will not solve everything only at the level of .. uh .... we give them now ....., tk. It would be foolish for Iran not to take advantage of the assistance provided to Syria in the event that NATO and amers with izyi open a war against it, and how the Chinese and Pakistanis will behave in this case ... no one knows yet.
      I doubt very much that China would agree to remain without Iranian oil, which they are not consuming for green rubles, but for their national currency !!!
      1. 755962
        +4
        20 June 2012 16: 14
        So far, Syria has a much greater chance of becoming the target of a NATO military operation than Iran. Until the Syrian issue is resolved, the fight against Iran will be conducted exclusively in the form of espionage, sabotage, trade embargoes and the creation of a negative image of the Iranian regime in the media. So, the military-political leadership of the Islamic republic, apparently, has some more time to prepare for the “hot” phase of hostilities.
        1. +3
          20 June 2012 16: 52
          The problem is that while Syria has air defense, i.e. statehood, the Israelis won’t thrash about Iran, if they slip forward, they will wait on the return trip, and bypassing the flight, and even through the Wahhabi territory, is only in Aibolit 66 ...
  3. +5
    20 June 2012 08: 58
    Something the forces of the Air Force of 6 million Israel and 70 million Iran are not comparable -))). 255 modern aircraft against dozens of obsolete aircraft.
    However, provoking a war in the Middle East will hit Israel itself first and foremost. This means that it is necessary to come to an agreement, there was a chance at the recent negotiations between the Six and Iran. And there will be more - and it is better to use these chances.
    1. Inzhengr
      0
      20 June 2012 09: 45
      Quote: aksakal
      Something the forces of the Air Force of 6 million Israel and 70 million Iran are not comparable -))). 255 modern aircraft against dozens of obsolete aircraft.
      Affects a long-term embargo.
    2. VAF
      VAF
      +3
      20 June 2012 10: 24
      Quote: aksakal
      that is the force of the 6 millionth Israel and 70 millionth Iran’s air forces -))). 255 modern aircraft against dozens of obsolete aircraft.


      Erroneous opinion, dear, because Iran is fighting over its territory covered by air defense systems, and Israel is flying to the limit of its aviation, each plane has at least 3 PTBs and a little bit of rockets, but what is the hope of an air battle with PTB ?!
      1. +1
        20 June 2012 15: 33
        Quote: veteran.air force
        and Israel flies to the limit of its aviation, on each plane at least 3 PTBs and a little bit of missiles, but what is an air battle with PTBs, I hope I do not need to explain ?!

        - it is clear. I just made a note about the general military potential. And it is disappointingly bad for Iran - ((((. For some reason I thought that it was cooler in Iran, and therefore it has a reason to show off its network, and ours say that you definitely can’t break Iran - (((. And then I saw the numbers and the composition - yes, it’s like a gun with just one cartridge in front of the enemy to wave -)))).
        1. VAF
          VAF
          +1
          20 June 2012 19: 45
          Quote: aksakal
          I saw the numbers and composition - yes, it’s like a gun with just one cartridge in front of the enemy to wave


          This is only if they would have a common border, then yes ... and since having a distance of almost 1500-1800 km, they can still feel relatively calm, but not relaxing.

          And given the fact that the Iranian fleet can approach the Mediterranean Sea, then you yourself understand ... Israel may have problems .....
      2. +3
        20 June 2012 15: 53
        And if the Israelis do not agree to use airfields in Iraq.
        1. VAF
          VAF
          +2
          20 June 2012 19: 41
          Quote: saturn.mmm
          And if the Israelis do not agree to use airfields in Iraq.


          This is hypothetical, but then immediately fall under a possible preventive strike by Iran’s tactical missiles, +!
          1. +3
            20 June 2012 20: 17
            Quote: veteran.air force
            tactical missiles of Iran, +!

            I don’t know the truth or not, but supposedly Iran has missiles capable of reaching Israel, which is why the Israelis were very worried, and against the background of rumors of creating a nuclear warhead. Here’s Google about Iran’s missiles

            Missiles in service with the Iranian army

            "Shahab-3b": 2500 km

            "Sajil-1" and "2": 2000 km

            "Shahab-3a": 1800 km

            "Shahab-3": 1300 km

            "Shahab-2": 500 km

            "Silsal": up to 400 km

            "Fateh": 170 km

            "Tondar": 150 km
            1. VAF
              VAF
              +3
              20 June 2012 22: 08
              Quote: saturn.mmm
              I don’t know the truth or not, but Iran supposedly has missiles capable of reaching Israel


              Information over. than true, +! drinks True QUO is lame. but that would cover the AB is enough, especially if the warhead with KMGU
  4. 0
    20 June 2012 09: 22
    Adventure. Although the Nazi gamble created a very big headache with the creation of an Amer dominator.
  5. omulu
    +2
    20 June 2012 09: 43
    Iran is too tough for Israel! Only with the USA, Iran will be able to break. The USA and the Base are nearby, and the AUGs.
  6. Kaa
    +1
    20 June 2012 09: 53
    And the Americans figured it all out, and tell the Israelis with a quote from "The White Sun of the Desert" - No, guys, I won't give you a machine gun.
  7. party3AH
    +2
    20 June 2012 10: 03
    The states are unlikely to write until they take Syria, airborne support is good, and your foothold "under the walls" of the enemy is even better, that is. Syria as an airfield for bomb carriers will be arranged for all NATO aviation.
  8. Roman 3671
    +9
    20 June 2012 10: 27
    Israel has experience with such operations. In June 2003, Israel, preoccupied with Iran’s nuclear program, signed a $ 319 million contract for the purchase of 5 US-guided bombs, of which 500 were GBU-28 (a 2270-kg laser-guided bomb designed to destroy objects located deep beneath ground). At one time, Israel carried out a successful airstrike on the Iraqi nuclear center.

    In February 2004, deliveries to Israel of 102 F-16I fighter bombers equipped with special additional fuel tanks began, which allow aircraft to fly to Iran and return.
    Recall the destruction in September 2007 of the Syrian reactor, being built with the help of North Korean and Iranian specialists, by the Israeli F-15. Here's how it happened: Exactly at 22.45 pm on September 5, 2007, ten Israeli F-15 aircraft took off from one of the military airfields. Each of them carried an AGM-65 missile with a warhead weighing 500 kilograms. Near the Syrian border, three planes lagged behind - all the time of the operation they had to be in the air, but over Israeli territory. Seven continued to fly already in Syrian airspace. Seconds later, the first F-15 rocket launched on a Syrian radar. The hit was direct, the Syrian air defense blinded. Less than 20 minutes after that, the aircraft bombed the reactor. All AGM-65 hit exactly in the building, turned into a pile of ruins. And another twenty minutes later ten F-15s landed safely at their base.
    A similar blow was struck in 1981 on the Iraqi reactor-Operation Opera: The operation was scheduled for June 7, 1981, but the soldiers of Unit 669 were previously secretly dropped by helicopters abroad along the intended flight route of the strike group in order to be able to rescue the pilots if they are forced to eject. After the successful completion of the operation, these fighters were also secretly evacuated. The following F-16A aircraft participated in the operation: from Squadron 117 - boards 107, 113, 118, 129; from squadron 110 - sides 239, 240, 243 (pilot Ilan Ramon) and 249. Each aircraft from the strike group (8 F-16A) was equipped with two Mark 84 unguided bombs and three additional tanks: two tanks with a capacity of 1400 liters were attached under the wings, and one with a capacity of 1100 liters - under the fuselage.
    Upon entering Iraq's airspace, the escort group split up: two F-15A aircraft continued to follow the reactor, and the rest dispersed in order to divert the attention of Iraqi air defenses, ready to come to the aid of the attacking group at any time. The attacking group (8 F-16A aircraft and 2 F-15A jammers) descended to a height of 30 meters, trying to fly below the minimum detection height for Iraqi radars.

    At 18:35 local time, the F-15A aircraft made active jamming, and the F-16A climbed to a height of 2100 meters and entered a 35-degree peak at the reactor complex at a speed of 1100 km / h. Upon reaching a height of 1100 meters, bombers in pairs, with a five-second interval, dropped Mark 84 bombs. According to Israeli sources, all 16 bombs hit the reactor complex, but two of them did not explode. Iraq's air defense returned fire, and Israeli aircraft rose to a height of 12200 meters, lying on the opposite course.
    The Iraqi air defense forces were taken by surprise and did not have time to react in time. Not a single Israeli plane was damaged. Despite the danger of being attacked by Iraqi interceptors, Israeli aircraft returned to Etzion base on the same route.
    The reactor complex was severely damaged and found unfit for restoration, in full accordance with the Israeli plan. Eleven people - ten Iraqi soldiers and one French technical officer - were killed. One of the French scientists was an agent of Mossad. Http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%
    D1%8F_%C2%AB%D0%9E%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%C2%BB
    However, one should not forget about another possibility of Israel's strike from the sea: Israel has 3 type 800 Dolphin submarines and 3 more have been ordered, which can launch Israeli cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. Such missiles are capable of hitting enemy targets at ranges of up to 1,5 kilometers. These submarines are quite capable of launching a missile attack on Iranian targets from the Red Sea or from the Persian Gulf.
    1. +1
      20 June 2012 15: 30
      Quote: Novel 3671
      Seconds later, the first F-15 rocket launched on a Syrian radar. The hit was direct, the Syrian air defense blinded. Less than 20 minutes after that, the aircraft bombed the reactor. All AGM-65 hit exactly in the building, turned into a pile of ruins. And another twenty minutes later ten F-15s landed safely at their base.
      - forgot to mention the most powerful interference that all televisions, even in the Israeli territories adjacent to Syria, flew to the quadruple mother -)))). What interfered with, is still incomprehensible to our specialists.
    2. VAF
      VAF
      +2
      20 June 2012 22: 15
      Quote: Novel 3671
      Upon entering Iraqi airspace


      Roman, write everything correctly, +! good

      And the Israelis have the strength and experience and combat readiness and combat readiness at the highest level, but ..... I’ll answer with a joke, like in a bearded joke, when two American women are sitting in a bar and one from the other asks ..... and how to pronounce Iraq or Iran ????

      But seriously, Iran is "a little further" from those targets in Iraq that were attacked by Israeli Air Force planes, plus there is no surprise effect, plus completely different air defense systems, and I hope that the Iranians have slightly changed their mentality in relation to the conduct of combat action!

      So we wish the Israelis "success" .... although this is what it is, and you will not deny them their sanity !!!
  9. Ataturk
    0
    20 June 2012 10: 43
    NATO has always fought in the name of Israeli interest.
    1. 11Goor11
      +1
      21 June 2012 02: 45
      Ataturk (2)
      NATO has always fought in the name of Israeli interest
      .

      You are right, NATO has always fought on the side of Israel, but still it was in the name of the American (Rockefeller - Rothschild) interests when Israel coincided with them.
      Power lovers cannot have kindred feelings, only INFLUENCE and WAYS OF ITS MULTIPLICATIONS
      But recently, the Americans have let out information about possible jump aerodromes in Azerbaijan,
      Naturally, the Israeli military leaders were very indignant. BUT America has no interest in fighting NOW, so Israel is confused with plans.
  10. +5
    20 June 2012 11: 54
    IMHO. most likely planned joint strike on Iran by aircraft and navies of the USA, NATO and the countries of the Persian Gulf. Then, a joint ground operation. There is a possibility that Azerbaijan and Afghanistan will join. Israel is a false trail. He will be "behind the scenes": sabotage activities, UAVs, etc. The purpose of the operation is not Iran’s nuclear weapons, but the division of the country into three or more entities.
  11. +1
    20 June 2012 12: 00
    implying passage through the airspace of Egypt

    It seems that everything is fine with geography, but I don’t understand how Egypt found itself on a possible route ... what
    1. 755962
      0
      21 June 2012 23: 16
      Yes, not a hook for the "mad dog" laughing
  12. Drugar
    +2
    20 June 2012 12: 26
    It’s not entirely clear to me why some talk in isolation about airstrikes on Iran, others about missile attacks .... do not underestimate the strategic abilities of the Jews.
    I am sure that if the Israeli leadership makes a positive decision to strike at Iran’s nuclear infrastructure facilities, they will be used absolutely all the possibilities of the IDF, MOSAD and everything else at the same time. In my opinion, these are missile strikes from submarines on the Iranian air defense system and aviation in large numbers, at the same time all the agents of the Mossad on the enemy's territory are activated in order to disrupt defensive measures (remember the destruction of Iranian nuclear scientists), massive detonations of important military facilities, the possibility of destroying the "TOR" and "PANTSIR" before the approach of the main forces of the Israeli air group.
    Moreover, what does it mean to drop Iran for 3 years in nuclear technology? Restoring infrastructure will cost a lot of money, and under the conditions of economic sanctions and all kinds of embargoes, money will not be enough, and therefore this pushes the creation of nuclear weapons by Iran for decades.
    I think the Israelis will take a chance ...
    1. +1
      20 June 2012 12: 29
      Drugar,
      You are confusing "to quietly bomb a couple of hours" and a full-scale war.
      1. Drugar
        0
        20 June 2012 12: 54
        There is no difference ... In your opinion several hundred airplanes - is this "bombing a couple of hours" and all the cases? For a couple of missiles at Palestinian militants, Israel is "received" through deep channels in all cracks, condemned by the whole of Europe, and everyone will pay for "bombing a couple of hours". So why should they limit themselves? So and so "heap-small" will begin ....
        Jews achieve their goals by any means, if you notice, so that all means are good.
        1. +1
          20 June 2012 21: 25
          Quote: Drugar
          Jews achieve their goals by any means, if you notice, so that all means are good.

          And if Iran already has nuclear weapons, and they decide to respond by any means.
          1. +3
            20 June 2012 23: 47
            Quote: saturn.mmm
            And if Iran already has nuclear weapons, and they decide to respond by any means.


            Based on the outcome of the Iran-Iraq war, Iran’s capabilities to counter Israeli aggression and the more so the USA are not convincing to say the least, However, since then much water has flowed, since then, according to reports and various statements, Tehran has undertaken titanic effortsso that the armed forces are able to repel any aggression.
            If we evaluate the missile component of the Iranian Armed Forces, then this is its main striking force. To date, Tehran has more than 500 launchers tactical, operational-tactical missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles. The first two types include WS-1 missiles (firing range up to 80 km), Nazateat of various modifications (range up to 150 km), CSS-8 (range up to 180 km), Zelsal (can deliver a 600 kg warhead to distance to 300 km), Fateh-110 (single-stage solid-fuel rockets with a radius of destruction of up to 250 km).
            The main medium-range ballistic missiles are Shahab-1 and Shahab-2 - analogues of the Soviet SCAD ballistic missile of various versions. In September 2004, it announced the completion of tests and the arming of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile, which has a range of more than 1.500 km and is capable of carrying a warhead weighing one ton. Subsequently, this missile underwent several modernizations, as a result of which the troops received the Shahab-3M with cluster (or, in the opinion of experts, divided) combat units (launch range up to 2.000 km). It is on its basis that a launch vehicle is being developed for launching space satellites into orbit, and it is planned to create Shahab-5 and Shahab-6 rockets with a firing range of 3 thousand km and 5-6 thousand km, respectively.
            The vast majority of missiles are located on mobile launchers, which significantly increases their survivability. On a large territory of the vast arc of the north-west, west and south-west of Iran, from Iranian Kurdistan to the Strait of Hormuz, positional areas of missile technical bases with warehouses, reserves of fuels and lubricants and rocket fuel have been created. Missile systems on alert are constantly changing their location. As a rule, launchers disguised as ordinary car wagons accompany two also disguised transport-loading vehicles with two missiles each. That is, the ammunition load of each launcher is five missiles.
            The missiles, which are in the arsenal of the Iranian army, are united in five brigades of aerospace forces, which are directly subordinate to the supreme commander in chief - the country's spiritual leader. In addition, tactical missiles (about 15 divisions) are in service with the ground forces.
            So Israel, in order to successfully carry out the operation, needs, in addition to suppressing the Iranian air defense system, at the same time, it is necessary to resolve the issue with Iran’s infantry ballistic missile systems and only then bomb nuclear facilities without fear of a retaliatory or preventive strike from Iran. The task is rather complicated and hardly completely feasible without the support of the United States.
            Iran’s response to aggression is based on strategy "asymmetric strike"
            It is assumed that, in accordance with strategic objectives, Tehran considers launching a missile strike at control centers, naval and air bases of the United States located on the territory of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and its water area as a primary “response step”. In addition, missile attacks are expected to be carried out on densely populated residential areas of cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa, as well as vital social facilities: water and energy supply systems, international airports and major transportation hubs.

            That is, Tehran openly declares that in the event of aggression, attacks will be delivered not only against the aggressors, but also against all possible strategic objects and infrastructure objects of the entire region, not only Israel and the US military bases. It is obvious that massive attacks will be delivered simultaneously from Iranian territory , and from territories directly bordering Israel, including Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. For these purposes, developed Lebanese Hezbollah warfare and Palestinian Hamas application planin the arsenal of which there are tactical missiles.
            Will Israel itself be able to localize the massive terrorist attack of these organizations is also a controversial issue.
            В "Asymmetric naval warfare" with the 5th fleet of the U.S. Navy, Iran can use unmanned aerial vehicles, mines, groups of combat swimmers and mini-submarines.
            "... the large length of the Iranian coastline along the Strait of Hormuz, the presence of dominant heights and modern weapons with a firing range greater than the width of the Strait of Hormuz, allows you to organize a long-term positional defense site on this site." Other ways of blocking the Strait of Hormuz are by mining and breaking the fairway by flooding large tankers there. Americans currently note the fact of constant barrage in the area of ​​about. A stall (20 km south of Bandar Abbas) of several outdated Iranian tankers

            Let's not forget about the tactics of dealing damage from suicide bombings,
            especially if Iran can use them in droves.
            The Iranian command in the plans for the implementation of "retaliation" assigns a serious role to inflicting significant damage in the manpower of the units of the Israeli and American armies through the massive use of suicide bombers. It is believed that pro-Iranian groups will attack US military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to this, in the areas of action of suicide bombers, in addition to the physical elimination of government officials and military personnel of the U.S. and Israel armies, it is also planned, according to news agencies, to abduct them and hold them hostage in order to exert psychological pressure on the leadership of these countries.

            A series of major terrorist attacks against embassies and other institutions of the USA and Israel in the territory of the states of the Middle East region cannot be ruled out. Iranians may send suicide ships to undermine desalination complexes, supplying fresh water to 90 percent of the Persian Gulf. As a result, the region will die of thirst. What no one doubts in the capitals of the monarchies.
            So just like that to bomb apparently, it will not work without serious consequences for the entire region. Troublesome this thing as one of the heroes of Dmitry Pevtsov in the action movie said. Especially now, the escalation of additional tension around Iran is disadvantageous for the United States, and European countries that are in crisis are not interested in it.
            Quotes from the articles Tehran is ready to respond to threats и What will Iran answer in the newspaper "Krasnaya Zvezda"
            1. Drugar
              +1
              21 June 2012 11: 29
              The main mistake, in my opinion, is to think that the Israelis are not ready for serious casualties among their own civilian population and military personnel. The presence of a fortified room in almost every apartment, and in the basement of each house a bomb shelter allows you not to focus on the exclusion of retaliatory missile attacks on densely populated areas. As far as I know, rear exercises for the population and rescue services are held regularly and work out not only actions during missile attacks, but even in the case of enemies using chemical weapons! In this case, there is a plan forproviding modern gas masks to every citizen of the country, including infants.
              Imagine for a second what Russia is ready to go, being under an OBJECTIVE (!!!) threat of destruction. Remember the second world capital, almost captured, and millions of Russians who sacrificed their lives ... So Israel, I think, is ready to make sacrifices for the sake of a more or less calm existence, and indeed EXISTENCE.
              More ..
              That is, Tehran openly declares that in the event of aggression, attacks will be inflicted not only on the aggressors, but also on all possible strategic objects and infrastructure objects of the entire region, and not only Israel and the US military bases.

              So we again came to the question of the participation of anyone on the side of Israel. Think for yourself, if, say, the Jews take a chance and start alone, then immediately after the Iranian attacks on the bases of the USA, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf countries in general, Iran will receive several more front lines, so this is pure idiocy from Khamenei.
          2. Odinplys
            -1
            21 June 2012 07: 22
            Quote: saturn.mmm
            And if Iran already has nuclear weapons, and they decide to respond by any means.


            Your words ... yes to God’s ears ... And I think that Iran will answer something like this .... and it will be right ...
    2. VAF
      VAF
      +5
      20 June 2012 22: 19
      Quote: Drugar
      Do not underestimate the strategic abilities of the Jews.


      Abilities and opportunities are completely different things !!!!

      The fact that the Israelis know how to fight no one and does not argue, and the Armed Forces in readiness and fighting efficiency at the highest level in all kinds and types, and even more than enough combat experience.
      It’s just that the Israelis themselves can’t overpower it for reasons .... well, I have voiced them so much today and showed that repeating is simply pointless !!!
    3. Odinplys
      -1
      21 June 2012 07: 17
      Quote: Drugar
      I think the Israelis will take a chance ...


      This is a kind of that "freedom" ... 41-45 ... which the fascist Zionists carry ...
      and let them take the risk the last time ...
      May God grant ... victory to the Iranians ... and the whole world will thank them ...
  13. +4
    20 June 2012 12: 35
    In principle, at low altitude through Jordan and Iraq can be penetrated. The Jordanians will pretend that they did not notice, then they are a little indignant. they don’t have any air defense left, and they don’t blink.
    The ability to fight Arabs with less sophisticated weapons is a different story. The rise of Iranian fighters is the launch of training targets for the enemy. For tactics are zero. With air defense most likely the same crap.
    Here, rather, the problem is in the effectiveness of the strike. You can bomb factories as much as you like, it’s watering the scientists, but copies of the technology will all be stored on flash drives in the right safes.
    But Iran’s fundamental rejection of nuclear weapons with this leadership is impossible.
    1. VAF
      VAF
      +3
      20 June 2012 22: 23
      Quote: yanus
      In principle, at low altitude through Jordan and Iraq can be penetrated.


      Well, yes it’s possible to fly through, but it’s impossible to fly ... unless you drag along with you in battle formation pieces of 10 TK of 20 tons on a rope! laughing

      Is it difficult to take a ruler and measure, or raise your eyes higher and look at the map?

      Already even painted everything, for clarity, no ... again twenty-five ??? recourse
  14. Pripyatchanin
    +3
    20 June 2012 13: 00
    Without US support, Israel will not risk a strike. There is a risk of losses in aircraft and flight personnel, and Iran can respond
  15. +3
    20 June 2012 14: 21
    Lots of mistakes. The capabilities of almost UAVs, including such devices as "Eitan", were not taken into account, the experience of the attack on the Syrian nuclear reactor, when the Syrian air defense was completely suppressed, was not taken into account, etc.
    1. +1
      20 June 2012 15: 32
      Quote: Pimply
      Almost no UAV capabilities have been taken into account, including such devices as "Eitan"

      They do not carry heavy weapons to destroy bunkers; they will not suppress air defense. Papuans there are no terrorists there. Although yes, the UAV is fashionable. Maximum, additional exploration of the impact results. Although, you can stupidly run them in a crowd instead of false targets.

      Quote: Pimply
      Syrian nuclear reactor attack experience not taken into account
      Well, you compared a pancake. Ach e not to consider the bombing of Dresden?

      Quote: Pimply
      was completely suppressed by Syrian air defense

      10 airplanes in 20 minutes? laughing
  16. scientist cat
    +5
    20 June 2012 14: 45
    It seems that one of the options was not voiced.
    There was infa in the press that Israel signed an agreement with Azerbaijan.
    Most likely, no Muslim country will allow the passage of Israeli aircraft over its territory to strike Iran.
    But there was an agreement on permission for Israeli aviation to land at the airfields of Azerbaijan AFTER a strike on Iran.
    If this is true, then the chances of a successful air operation increase, only one refueling will be required directly in front of Iran, most likely over Iraqi territory.
    But what is Azerbaijan’s benefit from this deal is not entirely clear to me.
    1. Drugar
      +3
      20 June 2012 15: 21
      The benefit is objective: the long-standing confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia is now in the process of aggravation. Russia in this conflict supports Armenia (including militarily), which automatically forces Azerbaijan to seek support in other countries. As far as I know, Israel promised them the supply of state-of-the-art weapons - that’s your benefit. A competent and calculated policy is the key to success.
      1. scientist cat
        +3
        20 June 2012 20: 18
        Drugar,
        Israel promised them the supply of the latest weapons - that’s the benefit

        It is clear, but in my opinion this is completely insufficient!
        After all, Azerbaijan pays for oil weapons, and does not take on credit.
        If there was money, there would always be sellers of modern weapons, if Russia did not agree to sell, then they could, for example, France, Germany or Sweden.
        After all, Azerbaijan could have armed itself and not spoiled relations with Iran.
    2. +2
      20 June 2012 18: 04
      Maybe according to the plan, after an impact, to land in Azerbaijan, or else it’s far and troublesome to fly back?
    3. 0
      20 June 2012 21: 39
      Quote: cat scientist
      There was infa in the press that Israel signed an agreement with Azerbaijan.

      Iran is a Shiite Islamic state, as in principle, Azerbaijan and many others. With the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, terrorist activity will grow exponentially - this is also worth considering. How Afghanistan and Pakistan will behave is a question. And because of Karabakh, Azerbaijan will not be so substituted, although it is dear to them.
  17. Cadet787
    +2
    20 June 2012 18: 27
    Article plus. I believe that until they get rid of Syria, they will not go into Iran.

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