Military Review

Does Venezuela have a chance to resist US armed aggression?

51
We live in an era of a unipolar world. One may speak about his sunset and the onset of the so-called multipolar world, but in fact the United States, regardless of anyone else, does what they want on most of the planet’s territory. If in the epoch of the USSR existence the world was really divided into two opposing blocs, and individual countries passed from hand to hand, generously supplied and supported by their hegemones, then at the moment Russia hardly manages to support one of its few allies relative proximity to our borders. Can Russia provide substantial support, for example, Venezuela or Cuba, if any? Unlikely. If only in a very limited format.


The question arises: can a small state even resist such superpowers as the USA? And what is needed for this armed forces?

We will try to consider this issue on the example of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (DFS). This country is a key ally of Russia on the territory of the South American continent. The latest events in Venezuela have demonstrated unambiguous aspirations of the United States towards this country.

Does Venezuela have a chance to resist US armed aggression?


The desire of the top military and political leadership of the United States to eliminate the undesirable regime, and the owners of large US oil and gas companies to gain access to the resources of the RTV, may lead to aggression against the existing legal government.

The incomparability of resources makes impossible the victory of the RTS over the USA. Therefore, the task of the armed forces (AF) of the RRV is not to defeat the enemy, but such damage as it deems unacceptable and sufficient to abandon the intention to start or continue the aggression: large losses in equipment and manpower with a clear absence of positive results.

Most often, the following methods are used to eliminate unwanted US regimes:
- The organization of a military coup;
- The physical elimination of an unwanted government - the so-called "VIP Terror";
- The organization of the "partisan" movement, consisting of radical groups, cartels of drug traffickers, led and trained by specialists of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and special operations forces (MTR) of the US Armed Forces.
- striking precision weapons (WTO) on the most important objects of infrastructure, industry, communications, telecommunications and government agencies (the scenario used against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia).
- a direct armed invasion following a high-precision weapon strike, if the latter did not bring the desired results - sea and aviation landing, ground invasion from the territories of neighboring states (occupation of Iraq).


Attacks on Iraq and Yugoslavia delivered the latest at that time fighter-bombers F-117A


Let us leave aside government coups, consider power scenarios.

Proceeding from the weapons and military equipment used by the USA in recent local conflicts, the following requirements may be made to the armed forces of the BDV:
1. Ensuring the protection of objects from strikes with precision weapons;
2. Providing protection against landing of sea and airborne assault forces, ground invasion;
3. The destruction of partisan and sabotage and terrorist units.


It is impossible to provide guaranteed protection to any stationary object, therefore it is necessary to prioritize the defense of various types of objects:

- objects of government infrastructure, residence of the president, members of the government - to ensure the reflection of the first strike, to ensure the possibility of evacuation;
- mass media (media) - defense is not provided, the destruction of stationary objects is compensated by the deployment of mobile transmission complexes;
- objects of oil producing infrastructure, objects of life support - the most dense defense, ensuring the minimization of damage;
- objects of military infrastructure - defense is not provided; in the event of a conflict, dispersal is provided at field bases, airfield springs and other masked objects.

The creation of armed forces capable of withstanding all the above-mentioned threats is a complex organizational and technical task requiring significant financial investments. The limited financial resources with the total superiority of the enemy in finance, armament and strength requires a flexible approach to building up the armed forces based on asymmetric solutions.

Most states with limited military budgets, however, often try to be armed with all the attributes of the armed forces of “big” countries, such as:
- armored forces - Tanks, BMP;
- surface ships of the main classes - corvettes, frigates, destroyers, cruisers, aircraft carriers, landing ships (who have enough money for that);
- Fighter and bomber aircraft.

At the same time, an army equipped with heterogeneous, albeit powerful enough weapons, is not able to effectively resist a superpower capable of throwing an order of magnitude more equipment and manpower. The only acceptable option is the creation of asymmetric aircraft, which implies a departure from frontal confrontation in all areas of weapons, and the concentration of efforts in certain areas. At the same time, the development of armaments is carried out, making it possible to depreciate or significantly reduce the effectiveness of the armaments of the enemy.

The main requirement for equipment adopted by a regional power should be highest combat stability, developing from stealth - low visibility plus effective disguise, and the ability to act autonomously, in isolation from the places of permanent basing.

What means of warfare are not suitable for asymmetric warfare? These are tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, virtually all aircraft — multifunctional fighters, bombers, surface ships. All of them have common features - they are not effective in actions in small groups or alone, high visibility and vulnerability in the bases.

In turn, operational-tactical missile systems (OTRK), artillery and mortar complexes of guided weapons, portable and portable anti-tank missile systems (ATGW), helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), anti-aircraft missile systems (ZRK) of different classes, non-nuclear and diesel-electric submarines (NNSL, DEPL), coastal anti-ship missile systems (BNCRC), mine armament.

Their advantages include high autonomy, stealth and vitality with proper use, the ability to disperse, the possibility of long-term operation away from the places of permanent basing, high efficiency in the actions in small groups and alone.



Diesel-electric submarines of the 636 "Varshavyanka" project with Caliber missiles. The ultimate weapon of asymmetric warfare.


The basis of the possibility of successful combat operations is the creation of an effective and highly resistant system of intelligence, control and communications (RUS).


Intelligence, control and communications systems


The estimated composition of the RUS should include:

Intelligence means:
- ground-based and air-based mobile radar stations (radars) (on helicopters and aerostats);
- opticolocation stations (OLS) - stationary on buildings, masts, natural elevations, ground mobile platforms, aerostats;
- stations of electronic reconnaissance (RTR);
- Autonomous, artillery bombarded reconnaissance and signaling devices (CPR);
- passive hydroacoustic stations in the coastal zone;
- unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Means of communication:
- digital radio stations with the possibility of data transmission, encryption, pseudo-random adjustment of the operating frequency, providing multi-channel redundancy of communication channels and data transmission;
- commercial communications and data transmission networks - satellite, cellular;


Mobile VHF radio station of divisional radio networks P-168-25UE Aqueduct with pseudo-random frequency tuning (FHL)


Controls:
- mobile control centers based on civil engineering;
- disguised and underground command centers.

To reduce the capabilities of the enemy to detect and defeat military and civilian and military facilities, it is necessary to implement a list of measures to disguise objects, deploy layouts, decoys, devices that interfere with the enemy's guidance systems.

- masking objects - camouflage nets and capes, the use of natural objects;
- the deployment of false targets - modern inflatable models of military equipment;
- jamming of guidance systems - interference generators of GPS satellite navigation systems, smoke generators for jamming television / thermal surveillance systems.

To minimize the actions of enemy aviation at low altitude and counteract low-flying cruise missiles, it may be worth considering a return to the idea of ​​using barrage balloons that were widely used in World War II. In the modern version, these balloons can be implemented at a new level and additionally serve as a platform for the placement of optical stations and communication repeaters.

You can place them near important objects and in places where the terrain of the ground provokes the enemy to lay routes of low-flying airplanes and cruise missiles.


The use of defensive balloons in World War II


Based on the foregoing, it is possible to determine which weapons the Venezuelan armed forces can recommend for acquisition in priority order:

Navy - The diesel-electric submarines of the 636 Varshavyanka project with cruise and anti-ship missiles (KP / PKR) Kaliber, BSTRK Bastion, the Ka-31 reconnaissance and target helicopter, modern sea mines.
Of all that fleetthat BVR has now, it makes sense to leave only type 209 diesel-electric submarines and a small number of surface ships of the most modern construction to demonstrate the flag, anti-piracy, and similar events.


Ka-31 long-range radar detection helicopter


The main tasks solved by the Navy are to create the maximum A2 / AD zone by setting up mine barriers and the threat of using anti-ship missiles in the zone up to 300 km. Reducing the effectiveness of strikes with high-precision weapons due to the destruction of surface ships and submarines carrying cruise missiles, the destruction of auxiliary ships, transport ships and ships supporting the enemy, striking cruise missiles at enemy ground targets in the region. Preventing the possibility of disembarking the landing forces of the enemy from the sea, the delivery of its reconnaissance and sabotage units.

Air Force - modernization of existing Su-30MKV aircraft for use of the Onyx anti-ship missiles (if an aviation version is developed) or their Indian counterpart, the BrahMos-A anti-ship missiles, reconnaissance UAVs of small and medium range. Training landings and preparation of sections of routes and unpaved airfields, perhaps this will allow to keep the Air Force for some time.

The existing fleet of Venezuela is more than enough for any conflict with its neighbors, but it is completely useless in a collision with the United States. In the case of the beginning of aggression, it makes sense to disperse the aircraft as much as possible on unpaved airfields or to overtake on the airfields of the allied states, Russia, for example.


Su-30MKI multipurpose fighter of the Indian Air Force with suspended BrakMos anti-ship missiles


The tasks of the Air Force, if they decide to enter into battle, are action in the interests of the Navy (in fact only “one-time” use is possible) and participation in local conflicts with comparable opponents. UAVs are used for reconnaissance, target designation

Air defense (highlighted in a separate branch of the military) - C-300ВМ “Antey-2500” (existing), Beech-2МЭ (existing), C-350 “Vityaz”, Tor-М1 (existing), Пgla -WITH".

The Antey-300 C-2500BM complex should be equipped with long-range anti-aircraft missiles. In the future, the purchase of the Vityaz air defense system is important, since about him significant ammunition and missiles with an active radar homing head, which allows you to leave the position immediately after launching them on targets. The Pantsir complex of the missile defense system is primarily interesting due to the presence of the OLS, which makes it possible not to unmask the operation of the complex by including the radar. Needle-S complexes should be many - 2000-3000 pcs.


Anti-aircraft missile system C-350 "Vityaz"


Air defense tasks can be divided into two tasks. The first is the continuous defense of important objects Tor-M1, the Pantsir anti-tank missile defense system, Igla MANPADS. The goal is to knock out as many low-flying targets as possible. Detection of visual / radar, radar is rarely included. The saturation of the battlefield with “Igla” type complexes will force the enemy to go to medium and high altitudes, reduce the effectiveness of strikes, they can also destroy part of the battlefield.

The second task is the “guerrilla” use of the Antey-300 C-2500BM, Buk-2МE, C-350 CMS X-VUMYAS - reaching the prepared position, deploying, detecting and hitting targets within reach, then collapsing, leaving for a masked position . The goal - causing unacceptable damage, the destruction of DRLO planes and everything that gets into the affected area. It is necessary not to allow the enemy to achieve full air supremacy with the ability to use cheap guided and unguided ammunition.

Ground troops - towed 152-mm howitzers “Msta-B” with the Krasnopol complex, 120 mm mortars with the targeting and control complex “Malachite” and controlled mines “Gran”, the Kornet ATGM, the MTRIS-E ”ATGM, autonomous reconnaissance alarm devices (RSP), thrown by artillery. Shells with self-targeting combat elements for existing MLRS “Smerch”.


The complex "Gran" complete with a set of automated fire control "Malachite"


The existing fleet of armored vehicles Venezuela is more than enough to perform tasks of a local nature, subject to timely maintenance and modernization.

The main tasks of the Ground Forces are to combat irregular formations; in the event of a land invasion of a serious enemy, causing unacceptable losses.

Special Operations Forces - anti-material rifles caliber 12,7 mm, silent sniper rifle caliber 12,7 mm Exhaust, silent sniper rifle caliber 9 mm Vintorez or VSK-94. ATGM from the presence of SV.


Silent sniper rifle caliber 12,7 mm "Exhaust"


Tasks - conducting reconnaissance and sabotage activities, incl. on the territory of the enemy and his allies, the elimination of high-level leaders of the enemy, headquarters and control centers, fuel and ammunition depots, ammunition, parking lots.

Equipment and weapons for all types of armed forces - digital radio stations with encryption, data transfer capability, pseudo-random frequency tuning, mobile repeaters, including army radio stations and cellular terminals, radio electronic reconnaissance stations, Divnomorye radio electronic counter stations on mobile platforms, acoustic reconnaissance equipment, inflatable military equipment models , smoke generators, GPS jammers, mobile control centers, aerostats with the RL for detecting low-flying objects.


Aerostat with radar American complex JLENS for detecting cruise missiles



The interaction of the EW and SAM systems


The armed forces formed on the basis of the above models of weapons and military equipment will have the following advantages:
- high stealth and mobility in combination with high firepower;
- the ability to not come into direct contact with the enemy or suddenly attack from disguised positions;
- simplification of the training of air defense personnel due to the lack of the need to carry out the selection of objectives according to the principle “one’s own / someone else’s” - the concept of “scorched sky”.

The scenario of probable hostilities using weapons systems described above may look like this:

Preliminary information about the preparation of the United States to strike comes from its own intelligence structures and intelligence structures of friendly states.

An indirect confirmation of the preparation for combat is the buildup of the US naval grouping, including the strengthening of carrier strike groups, amphibious ships, and ships carrying cruise missiles. Intelligence receives data on the revitalization of a contingent of American military personnel based in the territory of neighboring states - the replenishment of manpower, equipment, ammunition.

In response, the anti-aircraft complex begins mobilizing and dispersing the armed forces, increasing the combat readiness of the air defense forces, masking vital industrial, military and civilian facilities from air attacks. Combat and transport airplanes and helicopters are driven to the territory of friendly states or dispersed in forests on disguised ground airfields. The surface forces of the fleet are distilled into the ports of friendly states. Part of the submarines is at the piers in readiness for immediate release to the sea, the rest control the coastal waters and monitor the enemy forces.

The country's leadership in advance leaves the places of permanent residence and work and is located in underground bunkers or mobile command posts.

The fighting, unleashed by the United States, will begin with strikes by naval and air-based cruise missiles, air superiority and reconnaissance and sabotage groups.

The tasks for the timely detection of enemy aircraft and cruise missiles will fall on aerostats with radar and OLS round-about, acoustic and electronic reconnaissance stations. The information received from them is transmitted to short and long-range air defense missile systems, to commanders of subunits of riflemen with MANPADS.

To minimize damage to oil and gas infrastructure and life support facilities, around them will be concentrated most of the short-range air defense systems capable of dealing with air attack weapons.

Portable air defense systems, purchased in huge quantities, and the lack of own aircraft in the air, will allow for the implementation of the scorched sky concept at low altitudes, in which any aircraft in the air is considered enemy and is lost. Arrows with MANPADS located on natural and artificial elevations will fire at any air target within reach. The main objectives of MANPADS will be the KR, airplanes and helicopters flying at low altitudes. Massive use of MANPADS will provide a double effect. First, the destruction of part of the Kyrgyz Republic will reduce the load on short-range air defense systems that protect objects of special importance, and secondly, the constant impact at low altitudes will force the enemy to move to medium and high heights, increasing his vulnerability to short-range and long-range air defense systems, and, reducing the effectiveness of the blows of the WTO.

The shooters with MANPADS dispersed in the terrain will be virtually invulnerable to air attacks, due to low visibility and high mobility.

Large-range anti-aircraft missile systems will be used intermittently, with advance preparation, reducing the likelihood of their detection and destruction by the enemy. The main tasks solved by these air defense missile systems will be: the destruction of DRLO, EW aircraft and enemy air command posts of the JStars type, the periodic impact on the enemy's anti-submarine aviation to simplify the actions of naval submarines in the area up to 400 km from the coast, raid attacks on tactical and strategic aircraft, demoralizing the enemy.

The use of sham targets, smoke generators and EW facilities will contribute to the reduction of the effectiveness of US air strikes.

Counteraction of the US Navy can develop in several scenarios.

In the favorable case, if the surface ships approach a distance of less than 300 kilometers to the coast of the RV, they will be dealt a massive blow to the anti-ship missiles.

In the event that US ships keep out of the 300-km zone, the presence of a significant number of BNCRCs will act as a deterrent, limiting the range of carrier-based aviation (due to the location of the AUG away from the coast of the RV).

To target BPKRK can be used UAVs, Ka-31 helicopters, as well as data from reconnaissance satellites provided by friendly countries. The absence of surface ships BRW in the affected area will allow the calculations of the BNCRC to operate as efficiently as possible, without being distracted by the selection of targets according to their own / others' type.

The submarines will keep the US crews in constant tension, and divert significant forces to the anti-submarine defense. The main objectives of the diesel-electric submarines will be single warships and submarines, supply vessels of the enemy. Also, cruise missiles can be launched from the diesel-electric submarines on the bases of the US Armed Forces located in the territory of neighboring states, and possibly the United States.

If a decision is made to strike the Brahmos anti-aircraft missiles with the Su-30 fighter jets against the US Navy carrier group, the latter can be seriously damaged. Thirty aircraft with anti-ship missiles "Brahmos" and EW containers can cause serious damage to the US Navy, which can turn the tide of the war, as large one-time loss of personnel and equipment that cannot be hidden from the public can force the United States to abandon the continuation of the aggression. However, most of the aircraft during such an operation may be lost.

The preparation of the US Army for the invasion will allow timely detection of the widespread use of UAVs and CPR.

On clusters of armored vehicles, at a distance of up to 120 km, the Smerch MLRS, projectiles with self-targeting combat elements will be hit. The high effectiveness of self-targeting combat elements, combined with a massive strike (ten vehicles - six hundred combat elements), will allow the US Army to cause serious damage and thwart the offensive.

On the routes of the advancement of enemy armored vehicles, mobile units are deployed, armed with portable anti-tank systems and large-caliber sniper rifles. Positions calculations ATGM, after the strikes on armored vehicles and manpower of the enemy immediately change. A large number of MANPADS will not allow the United States to organize an effective UAV air reconnaissance and air support for the advancing troops. Destruction of commander vehicles, tankers, artillery positions and armored vehicles with guided artillery shells and mines will help to disorganize the US Army grouping.

When using the territories of neighboring states to organize the invasion of the US armed forces, reconnaissance and sabotage units equipped with silent sniper rifles, anti-tank systems, MANPADS, and, if possible, 120 mm mortars with controlled mines are thrown at their territory. Such units must destroy the enemy’s command centers, communications centers, fuel and ammunition depots, barracks, airplanes and helicopters at the stands.

The transfer of a significant amount of light weapons to the partisan and liberation movements of the neighboring states from which the aggression is carried out, will create chaos there and divert some of the US forces to prevent state coups in these countries.

It can be assumed that heavy losses, in a short period of time, in the absence of a clear positive result, will force the United States to abandon the continuation of hostilities and look for an acceptable way to peacefully resolve the conflict.

Summarizing the above, we formulate the following conclusions:

1. Traditional armies, regional powers, are not able to withstand the challenges of the 21st century in the face of the powerful, high-tech US army.

2. The transition to an asymmetric model of the formation of the armed forces and tactics of hostilities will allow to achieve victory over the qualitatively and quantitatively superior enemy.

3. The development of asymmetric naval forces requires abandoning surface ships and forming the country's Navy on the basis of non-nuclear submarines and coastal anti-ship missile systems.

4. The development of asymmetric aviation and air defense forces requires abandoning the development of fighter and bomber aircraft and go to the scorched sky tactics, relying on a large number of man-portable air defense systems, as well as short and long-range air defense systems. To provide aviation support to ground forces in regional conflicts of low intensity, it is proposed to use reconnaissance-strike and transport-combat helicopters.

5. The development of asymmetric ground forces requires the abandonment of the formation of armored formations in favor of creating a large number of dispersed mobile units in light-wheeled vehicles armed with portable anti-tank missile systems, artillery and mortar weapons with guided missiles and large-caliber silent sniper rifles.

6. The creation of reconnaissance and sabotage units intended for operations on the territory of the enemy is necessary to increase the offensive capabilities of the armed forces.

7. An important deterrent may be the presence of non-nuclear submarines equipped with cruise missiles.

8. Maintaining the operability, repeatedly reserved, of intelligence, control and communications systems is the basis for successful military operations of the armed forces.
Author:
Photos used:
military.trcvr.ru, agat.by, topwar.ru, militaryarms.ru
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  1. svp67
    svp67 1 March 2019 06: 05
    +1
    Does Venezuela have a chance to resist US armed aggression?
    There is a chance, but minimal.
    1. Pessimist22
      Pessimist22 1 March 2019 06: 31
      -9
      There is always a chance, there are weapons, let them coke in Colombia and everything will be fine.
      1. Grandfather
        Grandfather 1 March 2019 06: 36
        +3
        Does Venezuela have a chance to resist US armed aggression?
        directly, unlikely, But, you need to remember the experience of Vietnam, but the jungle in Venezuela is. it all depends on the people and the army, who for whom. but I’m unlikely to succeed in defeating the states.
        1. Pivot
          Pivot 2 March 2019 12: 28
          0
          Vietnam, the USSR and the PRC were stuffed with weapons openly, Venezuela would last a maximum of one year without external drink, they would occupy it in the best traditions of the blitzkrieg.
    2. SERGEY SERGEEVICS
      SERGEY SERGEEVICS 1 March 2019 06: 40
      +5
      There will be a chance if Venezuela is helped and supported by other countries.
    3. Errr
      Errr 1 March 2019 07: 19
      +2
      Alas, here there are no options - only a heroic death for the Motherland. Neither militarily nor economically, Venezuela is not able to confront the United States.
    4. Olgovich
      Olgovich 1 March 2019 07: 48
      +1
      Quote: svp67
      There is a chance, but minimal.

      And only theoretical.
    5. Blacksmith 55
      Blacksmith 55 1 March 2019 14: 02
      +2
      It is necessary to understand the method of US "thinking".
      They will not leave Venisuela alone, they cannot leave.
      If they give "slack" now, in the future, all of Latin America will get out of control.
      The independence of the Latin American countries - yes, but under our control.
      Whether there will be a power version with Venisuela is a question. If it does not come to that, then there will be sanctions, provocations, etc.
    6. Bratok
      Bratok 1 March 2019 16: 43
      +1
      Quote: svp67
      Does Venezuela have a chance to resist US armed aggression?
      There is a chance, but minimal.

      Minimum Sergey agrees, but if Russia succeeds in upholding Venezuela this will be the beginning of something new in the political world .. This West (USA) is terribly afraid .. Here the Syrian version will not work, there will be something more tricky and not advertised .. The war of special services and special forces.
      Now, of course, the liberals howl are raising why Russia should also protect Venezuela, etc. howl will rise ..
      But B. Assad correctly noted .. "If the Russians are defending Syria in this way, then how will they defend their Fatherland ..!"
      To the point said ..
      Hold on to Venezuela, if you behave like the Syrians, then everything will be fine .. We will not give you offense to the bloody Western financial monsters .. soldier
  2. Bykov.
    Bykov. 1 March 2019 06: 06
    0
    Yes, the campaign was blown away by zilch all the effort of the Americans to shatter Venezuela. It did not work for them to make south with her. American Syria.
    1. Bull Terrier
      Bull Terrier 1 March 2019 06: 16
      +2
      from which we can conclude that the invasion is almost inevitable ... they need their resources. and in a very short period of time. not even the resources themselves, but that piece of the market that they occupy.
  3. parusnik
    parusnik 1 March 2019 06: 21
    +5
    One question, but does the USA need a direct invasion?
    1. Destiny
      Destiny 1 March 2019 06: 32
      +3
      I agree that it is always better to drag chestnuts out of the fire with someone else's hands, and the "hegemons" have developed a lot of these methods in their history ...
    2. Nestorych
      Nestorych 1 March 2019 10: 01
      +4
      Precisely, if it is necessary to provide air support, they will provide, and neighbors will go on the ground. Moreover, they are vitally interested in this, the flow of refugees is already overwhelming them, and the same rich EU has done a poor job with it, to speak of Venezuelan neighbors.
      1. bondrostov
        bondrostov 3 March 2019 22: 16
        +1
        Quote: Nestorych
        Precisely, if it is necessary to provide air support, they will provide, and neighbors will go on the ground. Moreover, they are vitally interested in this, the flow of refugees is already overwhelming them, and the same rich EU has done a poor job with it, to speak of Venezuelan neighbors.

        100% of the states will simply spread the infrastructure, the army from the air. And neighbors will go on the earth, and it’s unlikely that the Vinisuel’s will stand until the end of it, too, they got Maduro.
        1. Nestorych
          Nestorych 4 March 2019 11: 11
          0
          In general, I doubt that there will be a military conflict, the maximum will be limited to special operations.
    3. Petio
      Petio 4 March 2019 21: 30
      0
      They are not profitable if Guaido comes openly on American bayonets. For them it is better if the Latins rode on the ground and the Americans supported from the air
  4. Obi-Wan Kenobi
    Obi-Wan Kenobi 1 March 2019 06: 30
    0
    There is always a chance, as well as hope.
    But gunpowder needs to be kept dry, and it is still intensely preparing for the worst case scenario.
    Chance -
    He does not pay, not advance,
    It only drops once
    Fortune knocks on the door, but you are not at home.
    Chance -
    It's so easy to miss
    But it is easier to bite the elbow,
    What a new chance to get.
  5. nikvic46
    nikvic46 1 March 2019 07: 34
    +3
    The author knows what he’s doing. I’ll just give my opinion about Cuba. The influence of the USSR on the international arena was great. The USA was forced to recognize Cuba not as a result of the pressure of the USSR. Huge
    the role was played by the international community, even in another camp.
  6. CommanderDIVA
    CommanderDIVA 1 March 2019 07: 39
    +2
    Yes, there is no chance for Venezuela the United States will outbid Venezuelan generals and they will remove Maduro
  7. Ezekiel 25-17
    Ezekiel 25-17 1 March 2019 08: 08
    +4
    It is not enough to have or not to have everything that the author lists, the main thing: it is a will, a desire to win, a willingness to give life for it. And ... the enemy must understand this.
  8. Alexey Sommer
    Alexey Sommer 1 March 2019 08: 12
    +5
    Article nonsense ...
  9. Stils
    Stils 1 March 2019 09: 38
    +6
    After the lines that Madura needed to buy Varshavyanka with calibers, it really became boring with Antei and the Bastions laughing
    1. Shopping Mall
      1 March 2019 09: 43
      +5
      The Antey 2500 is the C-300BM air defense system, they already have it, the 2 division.

      1. Stils
        Stils 1 March 2019 09: 58
        +3
        Well, not Antei, what of the above do they not have? laughing until they wait for modern "partisan" weapons (and who will give them a loan! laughing ), Madura will be carried out ten times in one gate.
  10. TermNachTer
    TermNachTer 1 March 2019 09: 59
    +5
    I honestly don't understand - an article about Russia or about Venezuela? And some mistake, from my point of view, is in the name itself. It would be more logical to say - will the United States "pull" another war? Despite the fact that they have not yet got out of Afghanistan, and their six in NATO, they categorically do not want to help them.
    They still will not leave Syria and Iraq. Despite the fact that the shortage of ground forces takes already frankly dangerous dimensions. In the Air Force, too, the situation is not so hot. And in this situation - get involved in another war game with an unpredictable outcome?
    1. Shopping Mall
      1 March 2019 12: 38
      +1
      Quote: TermNachTER
      I honestly don't understand - an article about Russia or about Venezuela? And some mistake, from my point of view, is in the name itself. It would be more logical to say - will the United States "pull" another war? Despite the fact that they have not yet got out of Afghanistan, and their six in NATO, they categorically do not want to help them.
      They still will not leave Syria and Iraq. Despite the fact that the shortage of ground forces takes already frankly dangerous dimensions. In the Air Force, too, the situation is not so hot. And in this situation - get involved in another war game with an unpredictable outcome?


      And they especially do not need to strain. Entering the land forces is an extreme measure, and so can deck-based aviation economics - knock out the oil industry, that's all. Or guide cover.
      1. TermNachTer
        TermNachTer 2 March 2019 11: 31
        0
        I do not remember who said this, it seems Rokossovsky - victory is achieved when infantry enters the streets of enemy cities.
        1. Shopping Mall
          2 March 2019 11: 50
          0
          Quote: TermNachTER
          I do not remember who said this, it seems Rokossovsky - victory is achieved when infantry enters the streets of enemy cities.


          So yes, the question here is who is pursuing what goals.
          They did not enter Yugoslavia, but in fact they divided the country into fragments, which are hostile to each other.
          Venezuela is a poor country, 95% of the economy is oil. By destroying the elements of the oil infrastructure, you can cause a collapse of the economy, then a coup - a "democratic" government, which will immediately transfer the concessions to American companies. That's the whole war.
          1. TermNachTer
            TermNachTer 2 March 2019 11: 55
            0
            They already live there on the verge of starvation, so this is not particularly scary. I think that mattress mats won't be allowed to "hammer" just like that. The interests of Russia and China in this matter coincide.
  11. Denis Medveezhikoff
    Denis Medveezhikoff 1 March 2019 12: 00
    0
    overtake on the airfields of the allied states, Russia, for example
    imagined such a flight through half the world
    1. Shopping Mall
      1 March 2019 12: 36
      0
      Quote: Denis Medveikikoff
      overtake on the airfields of the allied states, Russia, for example
      imagined such a flight through half the world


      Yes, the task is not easy, but it is better than parting with them when they are broken at the airfields. For starters, you can overtake the same Cuba. Or send by ship.
  12. evgic
    evgic 1 March 2019 12: 05
    +3
    Venezuela has no chance of resisting either the US or the invasion of its neighbors. You can only inflate the tail and demonstrate strength. And hope that blows. As for the partisan movement, of course it will, but do not overestimate it. Any partisan movement is possible only with external support (in the long run). I don’t think that someone from the neighbors of Venezuela will do something for this, and Russia is too far and not very influential in Latin America. China, too, will not spend money without extreme need and spoil relations with the United States.
    1. Petrix
      Petrix 1 March 2019 13: 42
      -1
      Quote: evgic
      I do not think that someone from the neighbors of Venezuela will do something for this

      If you agree well with Cuba, you can take the US marine group in ticks.
      1. bondrostov
        bondrostov 3 March 2019 22: 21
        0
        Quote: Petrix
        Quote: evgic
        I do not think that someone from the neighbors of Venezuela will do something for this

        If you agree well with Cuba, you can take the US marine group in ticks.

        wassat than?!
    2. TermNachTer
      TermNachTer 2 March 2019 11: 35
      0
      Venezuela's neighbors have their own problems. In Colombia, for example, there are so many partisans running through the jungle that "dear mother". We need to help them a little - with weapons, ammunition, medicines, equipment. And Colombia would not be strangers, to clear up its problems. To blunt us from Brazil is a very dubious undertaking - one or two roads, and then an impenetrable jungle. So, it's not all bad.
    3. 16329
      16329 4 March 2019 10: 50
      0
      The United States will not go on a direct armed invasion in any form, it is politically completely unprofitable and can cause very serious consequences for the United States in the region and in the world, therefore, sanctions pressure and support of the opposition will continue, an attempt may be made to rebel a group of interested military men, etc.
      But while no special dynamics are visible, it seems the opposition has missed the point
  13. the same doctor
    the same doctor 1 March 2019 12: 16
    +3
    Everything is determined by the willingness of the country's leadership to stand to the last and the presence of a similar attitude among soldiers and officers. Then the States will not attack. And if you talk about looking back at the opinion of the enemy, then the most faithful supporters will think: is it worth the risk, supporting someone who will betray you soon.
    Yanukovych was afraid to disperse the Maidan, Maduro did not arrest and did not condemn Guaido ... These facts mean more than any weapons and communication systems. If you are cowardly to disperse the rebels or arrest a renegade, then a priori you are afraid to fight a regular army of the enemy.
  14. Antokha
    Antokha 1 March 2019 12: 31
    0
    The article is excellent. This is exactly what the author says. Another thing is that the country's leadership may want to have inappropriate weapons "like big boys", which in a small country are only for show-off. It is necessary that the generals study the method of conducting asymmetric warfare and clearly understand what will have to be done. And you need to conduct exercises to bring everything to automatism in the army. Well, and have a fighting spirit, as already mentioned. Is all this in Venezuela? It is known that the Americans first try to buy the manual, then kill. Many may want to earn 30 pieces of silver from betrayal and wait for offers.
  15. sleeve
    sleeve 1 March 2019 12: 52
    +1
    Of course there is ... And a fair amount. The USA has shown its full potential for intervention over the past 30 years. They also showed their weakest places. First of all, the complete inability to maintain the situation in the context of an insurrectionary war. Especially when the control of the "anti-American" front is "blurred", when, conventionally, the rebels have a goal and it is more important than the personality of the leader. The USA is completely incapable of fighting the financing of such a concept of warfare. Even with minimal outside support. The "fight" will be stupid and ineffective, hitting everything except the network itself. Is there a reason for brains (or their absence) or a real lack of the ability of the world system built by the USA to resist the negativity playing by its own rules? Terrible "consistency" in the intervention for the USA. :
    1. Sun "victims" show resistance, effective enough, even if they lose in the net with superior victims. However, the interventionists suffer significant losses, and the unfolding liberation struggle is gaining a heroic banner and understanding of the enemy's vulnerability.
    2. "Decentralized" guerrilla warfare is developing. Ideally, only against the interventionists. Collaborators are citizens of the victim country. But here, as a rule, the deployment process is not particularly amenable to control. Although smart people are obliged to understand that a civil war takes away the strength and effectiveness of the liberation struggle, and in itself is the goal of the interventionists precisely because of this.
    3. Creation of a stable, "long-term" system of confrontation based on the idea of ​​liberation. Support systems, financing of the resistance movement. Treatment abroad, medicines, special equipment. Pre-created stocks of weapons and ammunition are desirable. Possibility of training "percussion" parts.
    4. The complete neutralization of the life of their country for the inability to use the invaders the fruits of victory.
    Well, patience ... patience ... patience ...
  16. dgonni
    dgonni 1 March 2019 14: 46
    0
    Well, and how much time will the Varshavyanka submarine be built at the shipyards? + crew training time!
    May the states not attack Maduro. It hurts they need it. He drove himself into a corner with his politics. There is no grub, and he is so merciless and unpredictable, a hunger riot!
  17. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 1 March 2019 17: 16
    +1
    What weapons are not suitable for asymmetric warfare? These are tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, almost all aviation - multifunctional fighters, bombers, surface ships.

    If you already have them, you can use them.
    Tank towers in disguise of stationary bunker. The hull and chassis of tanks in infantry fighting vehicles with ptursami or in a self-propelled mine of high power.
    Airplanes are a start with reactive boosters and can be bit from a springboard and one-way flight at full range for attacks of important targets on land and at sea.
    Surface ships - pour concrete and put on the ground for defense ports.
    If one of the several works as it should, then the effect will be palpable.
  18. boni592807
    boni592807 1 March 2019 18: 14
    0
    Конечно.
    Colleagues have already listed what can contribute to this.
    I repeat a little:
    - Cohesion of leadership and most of the people,
    - Competent and ongoing information policy and MPPod-ka
    - Good teachers, experience from Vietnam to Syria
    - Provision of necessary V&T, MTO (experience shot down a helicopter from an RPG)
    - The close-knit work of those who can protect their interests and partners, with the possibility of improving samples in real conditions with a real "potential partner." These are not only two countries, but also potential targets for the subsequent aggression of the "gringos" in Latin America.

    The availability of almost inexhaustible human resources Latin America. Many of the United States (UAH) annoyed there. An analogue of the source of human resources in Vietnam.
    Yes, there will be "gusinos" (analogue - wild geese).
    The rest: Will-desire is the result.
    Respectfully, .... hi
    Sofa Special repeat
  19. Samara_63
    Samara_63 1 March 2019 19: 08
    -2
    In Latin America, only Chile has an army that is combat-ready; all have the rest with nothing but arming them ...
  20. Xazarin
    Xazarin 2 March 2019 00: 58
    0
    To me, not to a specialist, the author's logical constructions and conclusions seem correct. The only negative article repeating abstracts. And so the offset) thanks.
  21. Kerensky
    Kerensky 2 March 2019 12: 20
    +1
    Not considered features of the theater. The jungle helps, but the rivers and swamps in them greatly interfere with mobility. The road network is sparse, based on bridges and fords. In such conditions, it is possible to carry out a quick and secretive transfer of everything ... that can be loaded onto a horse.
    Fleet. Why hide surface warships? We are "asymmetric" here. Let's turn everything upside down and hunt the US merchant fleet and run away from the military. Declare a naval blockade. Are they ready for this? Any boat here with a pair of TA is a valuable broom. They will have to fence the convoys, the insurance will jump ... The shipowners will howl. Russia and China under the sauce of "dangerous shipping" may curtail trade operations. And "fans of the Panamanian flag" privately hint that no one will fit into their sides.
  22. Old26
    Old26 3 March 2019 14: 30
    +1
    Andrew! Do you have a photo in the text with the signature
    Anti-aircraft missile system C-350 "Vityaz"

    And this is not true. The photo shows an export project of the KM-SAM air defense system, designed by the Almaz-Antey State Design Bureau for South Korea. But already in the creation of the Vityaz air defense system, the developments on the export project of the KM-SAM air defense system were used

    Quote: Kerensky
    Let's turn everything upside down and hunt the US merchant fleet and run away from the military. Declare a naval blockade. Are they ready for this?

    But are we ready? How many times is the US merchant fleet the largest of our fleet? And if they declare a sea blockade to us? Are we ready for this ??? The stupidest offer is piracy
    1. Shopping Mall
      3 March 2019 16: 17
      0
      Quote: Old26
      Andrew! Do you have a photo in the text with the signature
      Anti-aircraft missile system C-350 "Vityaz"
      And this is not true. The photo shows an export project of the KM-SAM air defense system, designed by the Almaz-Antey State Design Bureau for South Korea. But already in the creation of the Vityaz air defense system, the developments on the export project of the KM-SAM air defense system were used


      You are right, I agree. Here is the "Knight":
  23. iouris
    iouris 3 March 2019 15: 53
    0
    Instead of armed aggression, there will be a "hybrid war". And what are the rears of Maduro?
  24. Corsair0304
    Corsair0304 5 March 2019 09: 50
    0
    For some reason, the author is considering the option of confronting Venezuela and the United States one on one. In this scenario, with a higher probability, the DTV will become a colony. However, one should not forget that Russia and in particular - China has invested a lot of money and resources in Venezuela and will not be just an observer anyway. Especially - China in its confrontation with the United States.

    ".. the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Hua Chunying, in a reserved and implicit form, traditional for Chinese diplomacy, expressed support for the Maduro government:" China supports the Venezuelan government in its efforts to maintain stability, preserve sovereignty and independence, we always adhere to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries , we oppose any interference in the internal affairs of Venezuela. "
    Meanwhile, the loss of the "Venezuelan bridgehead" for China could be much more painful than for Russia. Since 2008, China has provided Venezuela with loans worth $ 70 billion, with payments in cash and in oil. In September, a delegation from China visited Venezuela to discuss a new $ 5 billion loan and a “strategic agreement” on gold mining.
    The largest Chinese investor in Venezuela is China Development Bank Corp., which has invested $ 50 billion since 2008. China's latest investment is the purchase by the Chinese state corporation CNPC of another 9,9% of the shares of the Sinovensa oil joint venture (after the completion of the deal, China controls 49% of the joint venture) .. "
    1. Shopping Mall
      5 March 2019 13: 00
      0
      Quote: Corsair0304
      For some reason, the author is considering the option of confronting Venezuela and the United States one on one. In this scenario, with a higher probability, the DTV will become a colony. However, one should not forget that Russia and in particular - China has invested a lot of money and resources in Venezuela and will not be just an observer anyway. Especially - China in its confrontation with the United States.


      All right, but no one will get involved in a direct military confrontation because of Venezuela, neither the Russian Federation nor the PRC.
      The maximum is the supply of weapons, advisers, supply of intelligence. So Venezuela will have to fight back itself, and the article is just about how to do it better.

      And yes, everything is correct, it is very likely that the RRT will become a colony, because of the mess that they have arranged there, it is possible and the invasion will not be required.