Venezuela has closed borders. But will this help Maduro?
But Maduro’s optimistic attitude does not mean that the Venezuelan authorities were able to regain full control over the situation and protect the country from the risk of foreign invasion. The situation at the borders of Venezuela is becoming increasingly tense. As was to be expected, the United States chose to act “by the hands of others”, at least in the early phase of the conflict that is beginning, and almost no one doubts that there will be a conflict.
At first, things were going so well for Washington - Juan Guaydo appeared, proclaiming himself the interim president of Venezuela, he was supported by the notorious “global community” represented by the USA, Canada, Japan, the European Union and a number of Latin American countries - US satellites. But bad luck - in Venezuela, as in the Latin American state, the army has always played a major role in the political process.
The modern Venezuelan army was created by Hugo Chávez, it is favored by the authorities and overwhelmingly supports Nicolas Maduro. During the month of “reign” of Guaydo, only a few senior officers - military attaches, who already reside abroad and have no command authority and subordinate units, declared going over to his side. It cannot be considered an indicator of the loss of Maduro’s positions in the army and the flight of three soldiers of the Venezuelan National Guard to neighboring Colombia, which was widely advertised by the American press.
Ground troops, aviation, the fleet - all if not for Maduro, then at least for their commanders, and the latter are well aware that their career is closely connected with the existence of the current government. And after all, there is a multimillion-strong national militia, in which both men and women are ready to pick up weapon to protect the home country. The mobilization potential of Venezuela is very high. And that is why the American leadership in recent days has become increasingly nervous about the situation in Venezuela, and it is for its destabilization that provocations are being undertaken with the shipment of “humanitarian aid”.
In numerous provocations against Venezuela, the United States assigns the main role to its closest neighbors - Colombia and Brazil. It is not by chance that Nicolas Maduro closed the borders with neighboring states, pulling army units to the borders of the country. Colombia will most likely be the "shotgunner" of the upcoming aggression against Venezuela. This country is a very old US ally in the region. Washington has always provided Colombia, regardless of the ruling regimes in it, with colossal military assistance.
For many decades, a partisan war did not end in Colombia, which was waged by a number of rebel groups of the Marxist and levonationalist kind. The most powerful and famous is the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - the Army of the People (FARC-AN). The FARC-AN itself is defined as an organization that follows the precepts of Marx, Lenin and Bolivar and advocates for a socialist society. Fighting against the central government of the FARC-AN began in 1964 year. Since then, the generation of partisans have changed, but the Colombian government has not managed to defeat the rebel army. Finally, in 2017, the FARC-AN decided to end the hostilities and transform itself into a political party.
But it was premature to celebrate the victory over the partisans to the Colombian authorities - the National Liberation Army (ANO) remained, an equally active group, focusing on the typical Latin American "ideological cocktail" from the ideas of Bolivar, Marx, Che Guevara, "liberation theology". Colombian authorities accuse Venezuela of supporting the partisans of the Independent Non-profit Organization, although Caracas has repeatedly denied these accusations.
But back to the complex relationship between Washington and Latin America. During the second half of the twentieth century, the United States was terribly afraid of the victory of the ideas of communism in the Americas. Therefore, enormous money was invested in the struggle against Soviet influence in Central and South America. The military almost from all of Latin America was trained in the United States - so the Pentagon hoped to maintain influence on the army circles of South American states. It did not help - the same Hugo Chavez, a paratrooper officer, a representative of the elite of the Venezuelan army, took revolutionary ideas and, having come to power in Venezuela, turned the country into the most consistent and tough opponent of the United States in Latin America. Even Cuba today is less harsh in its assessments of American imperialism than Venezuela. Moreover, Caracas emphasized the development and strengthening of very strong ties with Moscow and Beijing.
What does Washington do? Open aggression against Venezuela, of which the United States would be the initiator, will not be approved in Latin America. In Washington, they are well aware of how the majority of Latin Americans relate to the United States, and they understand that the invasion of Venezuela can lead to very dangerous consequences. Another thing is if the Latin American countries themselves start this invasion. Then the situation will look as if the neighboring states themselves are restoring order in Venezuela, helping Guaido’s “president” and saving the Venezuelan population from a humanitarian catastrophe. And already under this sign, you can enter and American troops - ostensibly to help the same Colombians, Brazilians and Venezuelan opposition.
February 22 The Venezuelan authorities closed three crossings on the Venezuelan-Colombian border - the bridges of Santander, Union and Simon Bolivar. These crossings lead to the border Colombian city of Cucuta. It was here that the Venezuelan opposition, with the support of the Colombian authorities, opened a special center for humanitarian aid, which should be distributed among needy Venezuelans. Maduro and his entourage have reason to believe that under the guise of humanitarian aid, the United States, Colombia and Brazil are trying to deliver weapons to Venezuela, which will then be distributed to opposition activists to organize bloody riots, as well as campaign materials.
23 February Nicholas Maduro said that Venezuela is breaking off diplomatic relations with neighboring Colombia. Colombian President Ivan Duque Maduro called none other than “the devil in the flesh,” stressing that he had long tolerated Colombian politics for the sake of the Colombian people, but patience came to an end.
Devil Dooke or not, but he - frankly pro-American politician, a typical representative of the Colombian political elite, and hereditary. He is 42 of the year, and he is already the head of state. What is not so surprising, considering the origin, the father of the current president, Ivan Duque, Sr., was the minister of mines under President Belisario Betancourt, and Ivan Duke, Jr., as a young man, began working as an adviser to Finance Minister Juan Santos, and then President Alvaro Uribe. Education, as expected, Ivan Duque Jr. received in the United States - at Georgetown University and the Harvard Business School.
It is clear that Duque pursues a pro-American policy. He repeatedly showed dissatisfaction with Maduro’s rule in neighboring Venezuela, including complaining about Caracas to his American counterpart Donald Trump. Maduro Duque calls nothing less than a dictator and argues that it is necessary to help the people of Venezuela get rid of the existing political system. As soon as Guaydo proclaimed himself the interim president of Venezuela, the Colombian leadership immediately rushed to speak out in support of it. Given the long-standing military ties between Colombia and the United States, if the aggression against Venezuela does begin, Colombia will become one of the most important footholds for actions against the Venezuelan army.
But for the time being, Colombia is not in a hurry to move to open confrontation with Venezuela. The fact is that during the years of Chavez and Maduro's rule, the Venezuelan armed forces in many ways became the strongest in Latin America. Unlike Colombia or Brazil, the mobilization component is very significant in Venezuela. At one time, the Venezuelan leadership, following the concept of "armed people", paid great attention to general military training, the creation of militia groups - and this is a much more relevant strategy of a military organization than the creation of mercenary units of the American type practiced by neighboring Latin American states.
Now the authorities of Colombia are trying to show peace. So, Duque Jr. 24 February ordered to turn back the trucks, which followed the border with Venezuela. At the same time, he stressed that Colombia was acting peacefully, and in return received aggression, and accused Nicolas Maduro of this aggression, of course.
In addition to the border with Colombia, Maduro closed the border with Brazil and the Netherlands Antilles (Curaçao). Both Brazil and Curaçao have also established points for the collection of humanitarian aid, which Caracas regards as a tool of American provocation, preparing the ground for the subsequent entry of US troops and allies into Venezuela.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonar is a representative of the country's right-wing forces, a long-time fan of Donald Trump and right-wing regimes that existed in Brazil in the 20th century. Of course, he is also a tough opponent of Maduro, and indeed of any socialist regime in the countries of Latin America. For example, not only Nicolas Maduro, but also representatives of Cuba and Nicaragua were not invited to the inauguration of Bolsonard. In turn, Maduro also describes Bolsonar as “the Hitler of our time”.
Does Venezuela have allies in Latin America? After all, the United States is now trying to present the situation as if the Venezuelan opposition is supported by almost the entire continent. In fact, this is not the case. There is no doubt about the position of Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia. But not in a hurry to join the opponents Maduro and Mexico - a large and influential Latin American state, which, although included in the so-called. “Lima Group”, but recognizes Maduro as the legitimate president of the country. That is, the unity of Latin American countries in supporting the Washington line is not observed and this also plays in favor of Maduro.
For the time being, the Venezuelan army has been pulled to the borders with Venezuela and Brazil. Army units are suppressing attempts by provocateurs to incite riots in the border areas. As for the sailors, they stopped a ship carrying humanitarian aid from Puerto Rico, which was forced to stop near Venezuelan territorial waters. Venezuela's naval forces in connection with this event strengthened the protection of the country's maritime borders.
Seeing that the army is not going to throw President Maduro, adviser to the American president John Bolton even gave the Venezuelan military an official ultimatum: either they obey the impostor Guaydo, or “will be isolated”, but that means “to be isolated” for the army is not very clear. And what kind of isolation can we talk about when Maduro is on the side of Russia, China, a whole series of Latin American countries, Iran and even Turkey, which seems to be considered a military-political ally of the United States?
In a difficult situation, one can only hope that Maduro and the Venezuelan army will be able to defend the country and neutralize the provocations of the opposition forces. The only question is whether the United States and its allies will decide on open intervention. And if they decide, how should our country act in this case?
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- metronews.ru, stmegi.com, dixinews.ru
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