Military Review

Central Asia: close contacts of varying degrees

35
No one can be as close and friendly as neighbors. But at the same time, it often happens that it is precisely between neighbors that such a serious conflict flares up that it becomes the cause of a break in partnership for many years. There are many examples: this is Korea divided into two parts, Moldova and Transdniestria, Serbia and Kosovo, China and Taiwan, the list goes on and on. Recently, the situation seems to be troubled between two Central Asian countries - Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It would seem that for a long time Presidents Emomali Rakhmon and Islam Karimov sitting in their seats should have long found points for effective bilateral policy, but so far not only new points are found, but also previously established partnerships are lost.

Central Asia: close contacts of varying degrees


The situation between the two countries began to worsen after the Uzbek side decided to suspend gas supplies to Tajikistan. This was the reason for stopping several Tajik enterprises at once. At the same time, the Uzbek authorities explained the cessation of deliveries for Tajik neighbors by the fact that Tashkent now decided to prefer China as its general partner, to whom it is possible to supply large volumes of gas, rather than exchanging small things in the Tajik case. The gas scandal lasted more than two weeks and led to the Tajik side blaming the Uzbeks' neighbors for deliberately stopping the supply of blue fuel in order to take advantage of Tajik production. In addition, the neighbors caught Tashkent in that way he was trying to push the decision on the transfer from Tajikistan of the Farhad hydroelectric station on the Syr Darya. Another version appeared in the media of Tajikistan: Uzbekistan is trying to put sticks in the economic wheels of Rakhmon, who set out to join the Customs Union.

However, a couple of weeks later, Tashkent still resumed gas supplies to neighboring Tajikistan, but a wave of discontent was already provoked, so they began to talk about a new round of anti-Uzbek tensions in Dushanbe and, accordingly, about persecution of Tajiks in Uzbekistan. They recalled that the Uzbek side overstated the duties for passengers of the transit trains forming the Tajik railway. After calculations by Tajik economists, it turned out that the collection rates in 2012 years had increased by 60%, which led to a sharp rise in prices for goods imported by rail to Tajikistan. This was the reason for the growth of discontent among the population within the Tajik Republic, the economic situation in which even without that cannot be called benevolent (the per capita GDP level does not exceed 800 dollars). Naturally, the pro-government media in Tajikistan have fueled the situation, saying that all the troubles are exclusively from the Uzbeks neighbors who are pursuing a perfidious policy towards the Tajik people. The opposition media have added fuel to the fire and have decided to declare loudly that Russia’s position is behind Islam Karimov’s position, which is putting pressure on Tajikistan to extract political and economic dividends. It has become so accepted in modern politics: you cannot solve the situation on your own - it is customary to look for those guilty abroad. The main political goal was achieved: the Tajik president himself remained untainted, as they say, but the leaderships of Uzbekistan and Russia received their portion of the Tajik rejection.

It would seem that the meeting within the framework of the SCO summit would have to return Tashkent and Dushanbe to the mainstream of a real and pragmatic partnership, however, there was no qualitative dialogue here. There were very productive meetings of the Uzbek and Chinese delegations, the Russian and Tajik, Uzbek and Russian ones, but the direct contact between Karimov and Rakhmon did not come out. During the meeting, Uzbekistan and China signed dozens of agreements aimed at economic cooperation, joint resistance to drug threats, cross-border crime, and promotion of cooperation in the humanitarian sphere. Karimov signed a document on the possible entry of Uzbekistan into the free trade zone. However, the Uzbek side did not dare to send its representatives to the joint exercises within the framework of the SCO “Peace Mission-2012” in Tajikistan, which will continue until June 14.
The collective forces include Russian, Chinese, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Kazakh military personnel. There are no Uzbek soldiers in the united grouping. And Tajikistan regarded it as another unfriendly move from its neighbor. But why Uzbekistan decided not to take part in the exercises, because ensuring the security of borders and in its interests too? There was no official clarification from Tashkent, but there is an unofficial version, which speaks of the passage of the exercises on Tajik territory and the command of Tajik exercises by General Sobirov as the main reasons for the Uzbek “non-appearance”.

In all likelihood, the conflict between Dushanbe and Tashkent, despite the fact that both of these countries are members of the most diverse regional partner organizations, remains unpaid. What is its true reason behind it - the question is still open, but apparently the whole thing here is the banal ambitions of two presidents who simply don’t want to give in to each other. A sort of eastern version: how Islam Abduganiyevich quarreled with Emomali Sharipovich. It is also obvious that without a real partnership dialogue between these states, it is not yet possible to talk about a stable Central Asia. And this is particularly disturbing in connection with the imminent onset of the withdrawal of the NATO contingent from Afghanistan. It is to be expected that the mutual bidding will continue, and the number of reproaches and complaints will only increase if we let the situation take its course.

Materials used:
http://www.arms-expo.ru/049051124050055057048052.html
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2012/06/04/n_2374085.shtml
http://www.hvylya.org/analytics/geopolitics/23908-tadzhikistan-protiv-uzbekistana-eschyo-odna-gorjachaja-tochka-v-sng.html
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35 comments
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  1. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 13 June 2012 07: 53
    +9
    Like two donkey bays shared. This is what this article should have been called.
    1. Aleksey67
      Aleksey67 13 June 2012 10: 08
      +2
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      How two donkey donkeys shared

      Sash, it doesn't seem like another attempt of one bai to point out to the population of the country over which he "bats" (leads) that another bai is to blame for all the troubles of this population smile The dispute over gas looks ridiculous (remember that Russia and Ukraine have been going on and still going on, tariffs for transportation are also mutually regulated.) Here one country (one bai) has "leverage" on another country (another bai) and this does not suit him " oppressed " winked
    2. baron.nn
      baron.nn 13 June 2012 10: 21
      +1
      Great comparison!
      1. ivachum
        ivachum 13 June 2012 13: 02
        +1
        "What is its true reason is still an open question, but, apparently, the whole point is in the banal ambitions of the two presidents, who simply do not want to."

        In water resources. Agricultural Uzbekistan urgently needs water. But it is also needed in the south of Tajikistan, and in the north (Sughd region). By the way, the article forgot to mention more than 50 sections of the Tajik-Uzbek border, which Uzbekistan unilaterally mined with anti-personnel mines !!!!!! mines back in the 90s. And which he refuses to mine. drinks
        1. Shuhrat turani
          Shuhrat turani 13 June 2012 20: 30
          -2
          Quote: ivachum
          By the way, the article forgot to mention more than 50 sections of the Tajik-Uzbek border, which Uzbekistan unilaterally mined with anti-personnel mines !!!!!! mines back in the 90s. And which he refuses to mine.


          That's right, but how else is combating drug trafficking and Tajik terrorists accomplicing Tajik separatists in Samarkand and Bukhara? These are mild containment methods ... There will be more acute problems and methods will change ...
        2. Yarbay
          Yarbay 13 June 2012 21: 34
          +2
          and what does it mean unilateral mined?))))))))
          Where is it written that a sovereign state, within its borders, mining sites must coordinate this with its neighbors ??
          1. ivachum
            ivachum 15 June 2012 08: 08
            0
            And that means ... Let me remind you - anti-personnel mines are prohibited.

            Antipersonnel Mine Ban Convention (Ottawa 1997), Protocol II to the 1980 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons

            And they, by the way, do not interfere with smugglers at all. Yes ... "terrorists" too.

            DISPUTED sections of the state border are also mined.
    3. PAP
      PAP 13 June 2012 20: 44
      +3
      There, the point is not in beating, but in the fact that they have many mutual claims. The main one is the water issue - if Tajikistan builds the Rogun hydroelectric station, Uzbekistan will be left without water - respectively, without cotton in particular, and the rural household in general. And given that most of the Uzbek population is employed in rural households, they will have a natural nightmare there.

      Separately, there is still a question of claims to the Ferghana Valley, Uzbekistan seems to believe. that it should belong to him.

      Hence all these demarches - Rakhmon does not go towards him - they spread rot on him as they can.
  2. Nursultan
    Nursultan 13 June 2012 07: 58
    +5
    No matter how it affects Kazakhstan. we border take off. and in general they need to live in peace.
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 13 June 2012 08: 21
      +1
      They only dream of peace.
    2. Aleksey67
      Aleksey67 13 June 2012 10: 09
      +1
      Quote: Nursultan
      No matter how it affects Kazakhstan. we border take off. and in general they need to live in peace.

      Kazakhstan on any side will not be able to sit out. winked
      1. Shuhrat turani
        Shuhrat turani 13 June 2012 20: 31
        +2
        Quote: Aleksey67
        Kazakhstan on any side will not be able to sit out.


        What will happen to Kazakhstan ??? Let the border be guarded and everything will be alright
  3. Goga
    Goga 13 June 2012 08: 00
    +7
    Both presidents are no longer young, I can imagine what will start there with their departure. The entire system of power is built on the personal factor, but not as much as it was in Turkmenistan - there the transfer of power from hand to hand was "organized". This will not work in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and if we take into account the eternal instability of neighboring Kyrgyzstan, it turns out very "hot". Again, the "partners" in the "Big Game" - they pour kerosene into the fire ... angry
  4. sazhka0
    sazhka0 13 June 2012 08: 07
    +1
    For some reason, Kazakhstan is not mentioned. In my opinion, relations with the Uzbeks are not a fountain either. In any case, they were. I don’t think it’s better. At the end and the beginning of the century I have been there and there.
  5. Svistoplyaskov
    Svistoplyaskov 13 June 2012 09: 46
    +4
    We are witnessing the first "shoots" of future wars over water!
    1. Averias
      Averias 13 June 2012 10: 02
      +4
      Well, it’s no secret that one of the most real reasons for the outbreak of global war is the war for fresh water. For some reason they try not to talk about it. But this is far from a ghostly threat and by no means a myth. After all, it is enough to make the enemy’s water sources unsuitable and conditions can be dictated.
  6. Averias
    Averias 13 June 2012 09: 59
    0
    Like from the stories of Hajj Nasredin.
  7. Dustcoll
    Dustcoll 13 June 2012 10: 05
    -1
    In this conflict, Putin warms his hands.
    1. Aleksey67
      Aleksey67 13 June 2012 10: 12
      +4
      Quote: DustColl
      In this conflict, Putin warms his hands.

      Would you light a fire right outside your wooden house to warm your hands? So why do you think GDP is so imprudent? Recently, the Americans have been very active in "warming their hands" in S. Asia. They have a direct interest here because of the upcoming withdrawal of troops from Afgan. winked
      1. Svistoplyaskov
        Svistoplyaskov 13 June 2012 10: 16
        -1
        Putin "protects" padishahs from the arrival of "democracy"!
        1. ivachum
          ivachum 13 June 2012 13: 05
          +1
          Do you need "Libya" on the border with Russia? You will be the first victim of your "masters" when they start covering their tracks or they need a "holy sacrifice in the name of democracy" .... crying
      2. ivachum
        ivachum 13 June 2012 13: 10
        +1
        Everything is so ... but you forgot about another "player" in the CA region - China. While Tajiks and Uzbeks argue and sweep the streets of Moscow, China "sweeps" their territories and resources (and there are many resources in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan)
        1. Svistoplyaskov
          Svistoplyaskov 13 June 2012 14: 56
          -1
          Quote: ivachum
          You will be the first victim of your "masters"

          Are you talking to me? What are the owners? Do not judge by yourself. You better tell your "owner" to loosen the collar, otherwise you rush at people!
        2. Shuhrat turani
          Shuhrat turani 13 June 2012 20: 33
          -1
          Quote: ivachum
          China "sweeps" their territories and resources (and there are many resources in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan)


          Why do they need overpopulated Uzbekistan? Most likely, Uzbekistan will take a positive part in the policy of Beijing in Central Asia ... That would be reasonable ...
          1. hrych
            hrych 13 June 2012 22: 27
            +1
            Quote: Shuhrat Turani
            positive participation in the politics of Beijing in Central Asia

            This is like the positive participation of the lamb in the politics of the wolf, which will gobble up and not choke.
            1. Shuhrat turani
              Shuhrat turani 14 June 2012 00: 51
              -2
              not everything is so simple ... Uzbekistan has its trump cards, and China is not omnipotent ... it also needs allies, needs a fulcrum ... The geopolitical alignment in Central Asia is too complicated for unilateral actions ...
  8. Gavrilon
    Gavrilon 13 June 2012 10: 17
    0
    Pour, bite, and they can fight !!! They are gouging everything and they will start asking for help from Russia (humanitarian, military) and not the politicians but the people. Because he will remain extreme. And there, if you didn’t twist, after the collapse of the USSR, our compatriots left a lot.
  9. baron.nn
    baron.nn 13 June 2012 10: 24
    0
    Not an easy region - Asia. Cleverly there needs to be a policy pursued. so that Russian interests are not infringed. But there are leverage ...
  10. AK-74-1
    AK-74-1 13 June 2012 10: 36
    0
    The author, as always, "+" for interesting facts. The impression is not pleasant. I would not like to have another (or several) headaches. Objectives 3: to determine the position of Russia in the life of the former union republics of the USSR, to determine the fate of the former republics themselves, and to neutralize the Anglo-Saxon homosyatism, which shows immoderate interest and sows widespread chaos.
  11. Magadan
    Magadan 13 June 2012 16: 44
    0
    I immediately recall a project from the times of the USSR to supply water from Siberia to Central Asia. They immediately began to find fault with him and make fun of him, well, there "turn the rivers back, ha ha ha", etc. In fact, there was nothing fantastic about that project. Mankind has been building canals for thousands of years, and with modern technology it is a trifling matter to draw water from Siberia through Kazakhstan. And the fact that the Siberian rivers will become shallow is another nonsense, everything was calculated there, how many cubic meters of water can be passed, and in case of negative trends, simply reduce the flow of water. This project could make Central Asia the most prosperous region in terms of agriculture, and greatly strengthen Russia's position, and who even said that water cannot be sold?
    It would be nice for our leaders to return to this issue again and to think things through together. There’s no better way to integrate!
    1. hrych
      hrych 13 June 2012 18: 59
      +1
      Aral ruined, also some wise guy calculated everything? And what the hell for the sake of .... weird with Siberian rivers, there will be no sense anyway, everyone will ruin and trample the streets of revenge in Russia.
  12. bazilio
    bazilio 13 June 2012 18: 34
    +1
    as always, the comments "shine". again it turns out (in the article) that the Uzbeks are to blame. and the fact that the Tajiks are capitally shutting off the water, so much so that the water level in the main reservoirs, rivers and canals drops to critical levels, of course does not deserve attention. we should also forget about the international norms for the use of transboundary waters, which Tajikistan successfully violates.
    1. Shuhrat turani
      Shuhrat turani 13 June 2012 20: 26
      -3
      I agree ... and I noticed this ... So it turns out that the Russian soul is closer to the Tajiks ... Selawi ...
  13. Yarbay
    Yarbay 13 June 2012 19: 16
    0
    Dear author!
    the whole article is very interesting, but there are moments!
    ** Apparently, the conflict between Dushanbe and Tashkent, despite the fact that both of these states are members of the most diverse regional partner organizations, remains outstanding. What is its true reason - the question is still open, but, apparently, the whole point here is the banal ambitions of the two presidents, who simply do not want to give in to each other. A sort of eastern option: how Islam Abduganievich quarreled with Emomali Sharipovich ** - I disagree with you here, it would be too simple!
    You will remember the fate of Colonel Khudaiberdyev, the commander of the special forces brigade in Tajikistan! After the rebellion, according to many sources, he found refuge in Uzbekistan!
    Even rumors were circulating that secures or provides protection for one of Islamov’s daughters!
    I think the roots of the conflict are deep!
    1. Shuhrat turani
      Shuhrat turani 13 June 2012 20: 25
      -1
      They are absolutely right. Moreover, Tajikistan has a policy adversely affecting the internal security of Uzbekistan. This is where the whole conflict comes from ... And there is only one way out of it, by integration into large regional structures ... There is certainly a second ... But it is unproductive and harmful to the economy of Uzbekistan, but very likely ...
      1. Yarbay
        Yarbay 13 June 2012 21: 29
        -1
        Shukhrat, could you please elaborate on the policies of Tajikistan adversely affecting the internal security of Uzbekistan ??
        Do you mean drug trafficking and the sending of Wahhabi militants ??
        1. Shuhrat turani
          Shuhrat turani 14 June 2012 00: 55
          -2
          Yes, and not only ... There is a problem of Tajik separatists, the Ragoon hydroelectric station ... The ball of contradictions is confused ... It will not be easy to unravel it, the main thing is that you didn’t have to cut it ...
          1. ivachum
            ivachum 15 June 2012 08: 21
            0
            Then Kazakhstan must make a claim to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the shallowing of the Aral Sea.

            “In modern Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has turned out to be the“ keeper of the spring. ”Here are the sources of the Syr Darya, and, unlike its neighbors, the republic has huge reserves of fresh water - the total runoff of water sources is 51 billion cubic meters. Of these, Kyrgyzstan itself consumes only 20 percent, and gives the remaining 80 percent to its neighbors - Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and does it completely free of charge.Late last year, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted a resolution in which it declared water resources the property of the republic and declared its desire to receive payments for water from neighboring states. also wants to get money for the maintenance of publicly used hydraulic structures located on its territory.

            At the recent meetings of the heads of states of Central Asia, the issue of water resources is increasingly being raised. Kyrgyzstan's partners still refuse to consider water a commodity and define Kyrgyz hydro resources as "transboundary watercourses", which implies their free use. The analogies between the Syr Darya and the Euphrates are more than obvious, but, fortunately, no one is talking about "wars for water."

            Alan Badov Children of Field Marshal N 4 2000
        2. ivachum
          ivachum 15 June 2012 08: 25
          0
          Then why are the participants of the "Islamic Movement Of Uzbekistan"?

          http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Исламское_движение_Узбекистана