Russian rocket alerted NATO
10 January The German edition has published a new material called “Russland: Flugkörper 9M729 alarmiert die Nato” (“Russia: the 9М729 rocket alarmed NATO”) by Gerhard Hegmann. The article also received the subtitle “Die Waffe, die das atomare Gleichgewicht erschüttert”: “Weaponwhich shakes up the nuclear balance. ” As is clear from the headlines, the topic of the publication in Die Welt was the Russian 9М729 rocket, its capabilities and potential in the context of current international agreements.
The author points out: the product 9М729 is a rocket, the existence of which may violate the terms of the existing INF Treaty. Moscow denies such accusations. At the same time, the Russian defense industry is keeping secrecy around this rocket.
The United States clothe all existing threats in specific combinations of letters. So, under the indexes 9М729 or SSC-8 (NATO designation) the promising Russian missile is mentioned. With this product, Russia may violate the terms of the INF Treaty, but it denies such accusations. According to G. Hegmann, there is a dispute in which experts refer to the existing contradictions and discrepancies between the terms of the Treaty and the characteristics of real arsenals with weapons possessing certain characteristics.
The author recalls that the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles was concluded in 1987 by the United States and the Soviet Union. The agreement obligated the countries to remove from armament and destroy nuclear missile systems with medium-range and short-range launch ranges from 500 to 5500 km.
However, the Treaty had an important feature, it affected only ground-based weapons. Rockets for aviation, surface ships or submarines did not fall under its action. Thus, as noted by G. Hegmann, in the Treaty on the INF Treaty for several decades there was actually a loophole that its participants could take advantage of. This circumstance is especially acute because the early tests of air or sea-based missiles can be carried out at landfills.
Die Welt recalls the most important statements of recent times. In November, the head of the US National Intelligence, Daniel Coates, voiced information that has long been “the well-known secret.” He said that since the mid-2000s, Russia has been developing a new ground-based missile weapon capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
According to D. Coates, this rocket was developed by the Russian company Novator and is called 9М729. This is not about developing a standalone system. Prospective missile belongs to the operational-tactical missile complex "Iskander."
The author notes the importance of this circumstance. He recalls that the Iskander complex is understood not just as a ballistic missile, but as a whole system, including a set of components. It includes a heavy four-axle vehicle with the functions of transport and launcher, as well as those or other weapons. A combat vehicle can carry a SS-26 short-range ballistic missile or a 9М728 / SSC-7 short-range cruise missile. The latter is an additional armament of the complex, corresponding to the requirements of the INF Treaty.
The Iskander cruise missile has a length from 7 to 8 m with a diameter of about 500 mm. The main charge in the context of the Treaty is that Moscow has developed a new more powerful cruise missile called the 9М729, and this product can allegedly be used with the Iskander launcher.
G. Hegmann turned to Markus Schiller, the general director of the ST Analytics analytical organization, a lecturer at the University of Bundeswehr (Munich) and a rocket weapons specialist, for advice on the capabilities of promising missiles. M. Schiller considers it not surprising if the new cruise missile 9М729 is really capable of showing a range over 500 km, established by the terms of the INF Treaty. In addition, he notes that, from the point of view of a technical specialist, the terms of this agreement are inaccurate and unfortunate.
M. Schiller gives an example affecting the technical characteristics of missiles. So, the Russian side claims that the SS-26 ballistic missile is capable of flying at a distance of 480 km, and therefore in compliance with the INF Treaty. However, if we reduce its payload, the range can be extended to 500 km - the lower limit of the Treaty’s limitations.
The expert believes that the new rocket, allegedly representing a particular danger, should take off from a standard launcher using a solid-fuel starting engine. Then the work should include a turbojet engine, similar to the power plant of the aircraft. With it, the rocket must fly to the target. Unlike a ballistic missile, the cruise does not have to climb to a great height. It will probably fly to a target near the surface of the earth, perhaps even at altitudes less than 100 m.
The missile weapons specialist also notes the specifics of such weapons. With a flight speed of about 1000 km / h, the flight of the cruise missile to the target takes longer than when firing a ballistic missile. So, a ballistic missile is able to reach the target at a distance of 5000 km in just a quarter of an hour. In this regard, ballistic missiles pose a greater threat in comparison with cruise missiles. In addition, M. Schiller recalled that intercontinental ballistic missiles that meet the requirements of the INF Treaty can be converted into medium-range missiles that violate it.
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Discussion of compliance with the Treaty on Medium and Shorter-Range Missiles has been going on not for the first year, but has become particularly active in recent months. Referring to the alleged violations of the Russian side, official Washington intends to break the agreement. Moscow does not agree with the American accusations and in response points to possible violations by the United States. The intention of American President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Treaty complicates an already not very simple situation.
The proceedings on the INF Treaty, primarily related to Russia and the United States. Nevertheless, various foreign countries, primarily European, including Germany, are showing interest in this situation. Their concern is well justified. If the Treaty is terminated, and its former participants again begin to develop areas of medium- and short-range missiles, the main risks will manifest themselves fully in Europe. To effectively accomplish the objectives, the United States will have to deploy short- and medium-range missiles on European territory, which will put it at risk of a retaliatory strike from Russia. In general, the situation of the past decades, which was observed before the signing of the INF Treaty, can be repeated.
For all this, foreign politicians and specialists proceed from the fact that the Russian armed forces already have weapons that violate the Treaty, although Moscow does not admit this. One of the main accusations of Russia in violation of the agreement concerns the promising cruise missile 9М729, which recently became the topic of publication in Die Welt.
In foreign media, the version according to which the 9М729 cruise missile was developed at least on the basis of the developments in the Caliber ship armament project is particularly popular. The possibility of adaptation of the “sea” missile for use on the land platform is also not excluded. In this regard, it is believed that the product 9М729 has a range of up to several thousand kilometers. The version of the firing range and the fact of ground-based are considered sufficient grounds for accusing Russia of violating the Treaty.
There is also another version of the origin of the product 9М729. According to this assumption, the new missile for the Iskander was rebuilt from the air-launched cruise missile X-101. In this case, the maximum range can exceed 5500 km - this removes it from the category of short-range and medium-range missiles. Being developed on the basis of X-101 and showing similar characteristics, the 9М729 rocket does not violate the Treaty. However, this version is not very popular abroad. This is probably due to the fact that it does not allow to make claims to Russia - in contrast to the version of the 9М729 as a modification of the "Caliber".
Discussion of the 9М729 rocket in the context of the prospects of the Treaty on Medium and Small-Range Missiles continues, and not so long ago there was another exchange of statements. For example, in early December last year, US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson urged Russia to abandon the 9М729 rocket, allegedly violating the existing Treaty. As an alternative solution, she proposed to recycle the rocket in accordance with the requirements of the agreement. It was noted that the solution of the issue of 9М729 missiles "should be verifiable."
A few days later, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Ryabkov responded to such proposals. He pointed out that the inspection regime under the INF Treaty at the time "was fitted to the task of destroying specific weapons." All procedures for these systems have long been completed and confirmed. The Treaty does not commit any activities around the new missiles. In addition, the demonstration of the 9М729 missiles to the American side may be a manifestation of excessive transparency, going beyond a bilateral agreement.
As was to be expected, the December exchange of statements and opinions did not lead to the cessation of disputes and did not contribute to the search for a mutually beneficial solution. The two countries continue to exchange not quite friendly allegations of violations of the terms of the still valid Treaty, and also to remind that the accusations are unsubstantiated. Such tensions between Moscow and Washington naturally and expectedly attract the attention of foreign states, whose security is directly related to the relations between Russia and the United States.
For example, the German edition of Die Welt in its article “Russland: Flugkörper 9M729 alarmiert die Nato” examines the features of the current situation in the light of a promising Russian-developed missile. It is noted that the new 9М729 rocket is able to increase the combat potential of the Iskander complexes and pose a threat. At the same time, the German press points out the comparative simplicity of improving the characteristics of missile weapons, as well as the imperfection of the current INF Treaty.
However, all this should be considered only as a perception of the situation by an outside observer. Russia and the United States argue around the Treaty on Medium and Shorter Range Missiles, while European states, including NATO countries, are forced to observe these processes from the outside. With all this, they can face real threats to their own security, without having any real means of influencing the situation.
The article “Russland: Flugkörper 9M729 alarmiert die Nato”:
https://welt.de/politik/deutschland/article186641682/Russland-Flugkoerper-9M729-alarmiert-die-Nato.html.
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