Military Review

War will not write off everything. Is Ukrainian debt a headache for Russia?

For a short time after Maidan, Ukraine managed to collect debts almost more than anyone else in the world, having paid for them with the collapse of the economy and, it seems, the complete liquidation of the financial system. Ostap Bender knowingly said that the financial abyss is the deepest of all abysses, you can fall into it all your life. I would like to believe that Ukraine, we are not a stranger (whatever it is), it will not touch. However, during the life of the current government, everything seems to continue exactly according to Bender.

The latest data from the IMF show: Square ranked second in the list of debtors of this organization, and now only Argentina is ahead, which twenty years ago, in the year of default, they even tried to set Russia as an example. “Long-suffering” Greece remained behind Ukraine, where the average pension is 500 euros, but pensioners continue to hold rallies, and some state employees are still demonstrating in defense of the right to 13 and even 14 salaries. But their Prime Minister Tsipras promised the European Commission and the same IMF to cancel more than five years ago.

However, that there is Greece and Argentina, in Kiev, after all, they are accustomed to being equal to Europe and the United States, which no longer owe the IMF and other countries, but their own banks, companies and ... citizens. About how much and what the Maidan politicians owed to the citizens of Ukraine is not to be said. Because citizens are tolerated. They are tolerating and waiting for a new presidential election, in which the chocolate king clearly has to play the role of a completely different king - naked.

The last “chocolate” tranche of the IMF gives Ukraine, without hiding its readiness to “reset” its relationship with the Ukrainian authorities. In the IMF documents it is reported that the total can be about more than 10 billions of dollars in the new 14-month stand-by program. Poroshenko in his triumphant reports had already repeatedly reminded that he had reached an agreement with the “currency traders from the fund” as early as September, but somehow forgets to say that the previous program, which featured a more impressive amount - 17,5 billion dollars, was then curtailed.

At the same time, the conditions were much milder, although this was caused by the “pre-default state” of the country. In this case, they say about a person - “pre-infarction state”, and now the head of the Ukrainian state could be proud of it. However, "while the president" does not want. Most likely, because he himself and his prime ministers with the ministers negotiated with the IMF for each tranche in the manner of girls for extradition. Why - it is clear, I wanted not so much a commission, with the IMF with this strictly, but at least some kind of free hand. So that it was possible to conduct all sorts of conferences and receptions for foreign money, to do some consulting and analysis of investment prospects. We are in Russia more than once and not two passed, and then somehow we decided to wind down all such benches, which we think cannot be forgiven to this day.

In this respect, it is very indicative of the conditions under which Ukraine received another 750 million dollars, but already from the World Bank (WB). Quite official reports have already been received from there that the funds will be directed "to support important reforms in the banking sector, in the fight against corruption, management of agricultural land, subsidies for public utilities, health care, and pension reform."

There are details in the WB materials regarding interest rates, which are not even worth mentioning here. They are simply much lower than the interest rate in 17,5 percent currently in force in Ukraine. And this in itself provides the broadest opportunities for "creativity", of course, financial. Something similar happened again in Russia - in the very 90, when our country was in that same “pre-default state”. And the fact that the deputies are happy about the loans from the IMF and the World Bank, involuntarily makes it necessary to draw parallels with the Russian State Duma twenty years ago. There, too, rejoiced. What

However, these days Poroshenko is literally ready to jump out of his pants, more precisely, from state army riding breeches, just to show his “toughness”. For the sake of the rating you will not go! And even the charity from the IMF can be represented as one of his greatest victories. Along with those that were gained in numerous “boilers” during the ATO. The Ukrainian “for the time being president” managed to subscribe to the 3,9 billion as much, which immediately makes one ask the signatories from the other side (from the IMF): are they sure that Poroshenko’s successors will pay these debts?

Now for Ukraine 14,1 billion debt to the IMF. Of these, only the last 3,9 billion will have to be returned fairly quickly - in those same 14 months. If you don’t borrow more in a big way, then the sum is not the worst, even with a completely failed GDP of this post-country. Only under the condition that the money will not be wasted, and the last still functioning enterprises of the Ukrainian industry of the USA will not drive further and further into a dead end with their sanctions and duties.

No, nobody pushes directly to Ukraine from Washington, it just turns out that Ukrainian metallurgy was in fact a victim of the American-Chinese trade war, a few assembly plants can no longer withstand even price competition with Indian and Chinese branches flooded half the world. Ukraine has no more coal for export, and almost only grain remains from export goods from Ukraine. And it seems that the perspective shines about the Square, about which not the last Tsarist Minister of Finance of Vyshnegradsky spoke yet: “We will not finish ourselves, but we will take them out.”

In the end, for the sake of such amounts that the IMF promises, you can arrange another Maidan. Or (God forbid) to launch a new ATO, accusing Russia of aggression in all corners. In general, acting on the well-known principle "war will write off everything." Will the warnings of Minister Lavrov and the “absolutely accurate” predictions regularly replacing each other with the starting date of the APU attack near Mariupol help us in this case? There are very big doubts. Informational battles we, no matter how offensive, we lose. One after another, and only real things help. So it was with the Crimea, with the reflection of the first and second Ukrainian offensive on the “rebellious” Donbass, so something is happening now in Syria, and also in a dialogue with Italy and France.
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  1. svp67
    svp67 21 December 2018 05: 57
    War will not write off everything. Is Ukrainian debt a headache for Russia?
    And there is. It sometimes seems to me that one of the main tasks of today's Ukraine is to collect as many debts as possible, and then hang them on Russia. No wonder they are more and more militant, losing in a possible war and returning to the orbit of Russia's influence, than not a scenario for such a development of events
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 21 December 2018 06: 08
      .Ukrainian debt - a headache for Russia?

      Why suddenly! Gave (3 billion) and business then. Well, they are not their own Putin! And there will be not enough money - the old people will be robbed and raised taxes. Everything is simply solved. And the people will bow even for it.

      I remember 5 years ago, when "authoritative" comrades gave us money here and explained what a genius move by Grandmaster Putin was! Say, Ukraine is now at the expense of those attendants, manual, on a short leash will be! And that debt repayment is never a problem at all, the West will personally worry about it. Dozens of articles, to the shouts of a hurray, we were all brainwashed here! That's where they are now, uryakalka?
      1. Olgovich
        Olgovich 21 December 2018 07: 46
        Quote: Stas157
        I remember 5 years ago when money was given to us here "authoritative" comrades explainedWhat a great move Grandmaster Putin was!

        prove your statement. No one ever discussed this 5 years ago.

        On the topic of the article: no one in Ukraine is thinking about increasing debt, the main thing for them is TODAY to live and grab in your pocket, and tomorrow, at least the grass will not grow: others will be sorted out ..
        Unfortunately. it works and allows the Nazi regime to survive ...
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 21 December 2018 08: 43
          Quote: Olgovich
          No one ever discussed this 5 years ago.

          Tell your grandmother! ... that all life passed by?
          Quote: Cheslav Czursky
          we didn’t like Ukraine and all that it didn’t! And then in general should ?!

          I still could not understand your objection to me.
          1. kitt409
            kitt409 21 December 2018 09: 12
            I don’t know about my grandmother, this is not a question for me, but I’m a little aware of what and how much has changed after the “famous” decisions of those same arbitration tribunals, and how many agreements have already been rewritten and changed so that they do not need to contact them, so those are the money (Oh, how many such decisions have been lost, but if they like it so much, then let them).
            moreover, this is NOT about Russia, more precisely, not only about it, oh, how many foreigners ...
            So what about the repayment of the debt - still to come.
            1. Stas157
              Stas157 21 December 2018 09: 25
              Quote: kitt409
              So what about the repayment of the debt - still to come.

              And was it worth it to suffer so much, even if we assume that after all the trials and tribulations, this money will really be given back? Then, if all the same, Ukraine is finally obliged to repay the debt, how will it repay? She already has so many debts that it is unlikely to be able to recover them in full.
              In any case, a loan to Ukraine hostile to us, at $ 3 billion 5 years ago, was a serious mistake. But, the political leadership in Russia never bears responsibility for their mistakes, therefore it makes them endlessly.
              1. kitt409
                kitt409 21 December 2018 09: 52
                As to whether it was a mistake or not, you can argue for a long time, but is it necessary? The subjunctive mood, so to speak, has already been done, has already happened, but as for the return, they already wrote about the insurance of the corresponding exchange, so the option is quite possible appeals to the insurer ...
                Let's see, there is still no complete clarity, in my opinion ...
              2. Pathos
                Pathos 21 December 2018 16: 08
                In general, it was like talking about a loan (buying Ukraine’s securities on the London Stock Exchange) at 18 lard and 3 lard is like the first tranche of the yanyku, but the mattresses understood that their land was getting under their feet (according to geological exploration in the Donetsk region, Biden’s shale gas topic) and for 5 lard organized Maidan something like this request
        2. Antares
          Antares 21 December 2018 13: 50
          Quote: Olgovich
          No one ever discussed this 5 years ago.

          If earlier in the press there were reports that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation intends to sue Ukraine because of Kiev debts of $ 3 billion, now "informed sources" claim that Moscow is considering options for blocking the IMF assistance program to Ukraine

          Analytics department
      2. Cheslav Tsursky
        Cheslav Tsursky 21 December 2018 07: 57
        Who about what. and lousy about the bath! We have already remembered for 10 years that the XNUMX leftists of all stripes taldychat that we did not like Ukraine and didn’t do anything for it! And then in general should ?!
    2. Errr
      Errr 21 December 2018 07: 51
      We can pay off. But only after the closure of the "Ukraine" project and the voluntary and irrevocable entry of all of them lol areas of the Russian Federation. Not a bad option.
      1. Vladimir we
        Vladimir we 21 December 2018 14: 22
        Minus because western Ukraine is very problematic, no one wants it for themselves, even if Poles with Hungarians use it. Or am I wrong?
        1. Errr
          Errr 21 December 2018 18: 28
          Alas. This is true.
    3. Cheslav Tsursky
      Cheslav Tsursky 21 December 2018 07: 55
      Ukrainian metallurgy is not US - Chinese sacrifice! All of Ukraine is a victim of Nazi Maidan workers and ukroeretiki. This under-state is unfinished born.
    4. makeyev
      makeyev 21 December 2018 09: 29
      So after all, Ukraine can be torn apart. Galicia leave the successor of Ukraine. And all other regions of the former Ukraine, strictly separately, should be included in the Russian Federation without burdening with debts.
      1. Akuzenka
        Akuzenka 24 December 2018 10: 36
        But actually why such difficulties. If the territory of the former Ukraine becomes part of the Russian Federation, then what debts will hang on the Russian Federation? Only the debts of the Russian Federation. And for the former Ukraine, let them ask, those who brought to its disappearance - the current Nazi leadership.
  2. Alexander Barinov
    Alexander Barinov 21 December 2018 06: 16
    Stop imposing on the Peoples of the Russian Federation the "alien" for some ethnic group, the existing Ukraine *. This rabble is not capable of anything, except for the spread of a stinking smell
  3. samarin1969
    samarin1969 21 December 2018 06: 22
    The author had a difficult time: convincing that Ukraine itself would change its policy under the weight of economic problems or would hit the drums of war. Why would that be? ... Banks demonstrate routine profitability, secular lions and lionesses also burn their lives, Donetsk coal has beneficiaries with Ukrainian passports, the IMF is stingy - but it gives, the minimum wage and average salary are comparable to the Russian Federation ... Why should Ukraine fight ? It is possible for decades with impunity to exterminate Russians in the Donbas by shelling, sniper hunting and extreme DRGs. For this, the "partners" issued a license for 50 years.
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 21 December 2018 06: 45
      . The minimum wage and average salaries are comparable with the Russian Federation ...

      Not true
      1. samarin1969
        samarin1969 21 December 2018 07: 00
        Quote: igorbrsv
        . The minimum wage and average salaries are comparable with the Russian Federation ...

        Not true

        8,6 and 11 thousand in rubles are quite comparable, especially since prices in Ukraine are slightly cheaper ...
        1. igorbrsv
          igorbrsv 21 December 2018 07: 14
          Moreover, in Kiev cf. sn 13500, in other regions less, almost a mole. Although we certainly are not better off
          1. Avior
            Avior 21 December 2018 10: 51
            непрР° РІРґР °.
            the average salary in the Donetsk region, for example, more than 10000 rubles.
            in regions - 8-9 thousand hryvnias
            and the cost of living in Ukraine is 1700, which is much lower than the Russian one.
            1. igorbrsv
              igorbrsv 21 December 2018 15: 40
              There is data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance
              1. Avior
                Avior 21 December 2018 18: 01
                I know, and wrote on them. and you do not confuse rubles with hryvnias?
                in Ukraine there is a rather small difference in the average salary by region, the only exception is Kiev, and even there it is not at times ...
                1. igorbrsv
                  igorbrsv 22 December 2018 11: 05
                  Yes. Really. Not in rubles. Viewed various resources yesterday. Part in rubles, part in hryvnias and dollars
  4. rayruav
    rayruav 21 December 2018 06: 43
    at the expense of the collapse of Ukraine, conversations have long been going on with a bang, this is an excellent distraction from their problems and an example of what are the speeches against the native government
    1. 21 December 2018 23: 57
      Quote: rayruav
      at the expense of the collapse of Ukraine, conversations have long gone with a bang

      Take it higher, talking about the collapse of the evil empire itself - the United States and the godless currency - the dollar, goes even longer ... And then the servants of the people in revelations say that we are dumping money into the US public debt, because this turns out to be the most reliable way to store money. And here you begin to believe them!)))
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 21 December 2018 06: 46
    in Kiev, after all, they are used to being equal to Europe and the USA
    Only equal somehow strange. They do not try to improve at home, but live only in the hope that the West will help. It will help, it will certainly help - to take away the remaining territory of Ukraine for debts.
  6. Babalaykin
    Babalaykin 21 December 2018 06: 55
    What about 3 lard of Russian debt when they return?
    1. Conductor
      Conductor 21 December 2018 07: 02
      It seems that never.
    2. makeyev
      makeyev 21 December 2018 09: 33
      In kind to return $ 3 billion - Ukraine itself to return, without the Bandera fascist Galicia - the successor of Ukraine and all the debts of Ukraine!
  7. shans2
    shans2 21 December 2018 07: 10
    The debt is insured by the Irish Exchange, as they do not pull, but no later than the 20th court will make a decision, and then the exchange will itself pay.
    1. Avior
      Avior 21 December 2018 10: 47
      if the court decides that it is impossible to repay the debt due to the actions of Russia itself, no one will pay any insurance
      1. kitt409
        kitt409 22 December 2018 12: 11
        The court will then only once again confirm that it is NOT a court in fact, and will lose more money on this, moreover ...
  8. parusnik
    parusnik 21 December 2018 07: 17
    In the end, for the sake of such amounts that the IMF promises, it is possible to arrange another Maidan. Or (God forbid) launch a new ATO, accusing Russia of aggression in all corners. In general, acting according to the well-known principle “war will write everything off” [
    /b] .. Will not write off ... They gave a loan to pay the debt, where to go ... Do not declare a default to "friends" .. they will not receive anything at all ... About Russian lards given to Ukraine in debt, you can forget ... even more for 3 lard, Ukraine has already announced a default ..
  9. The comment was deleted.
  10. Strashila
    Strashila 21 December 2018 08: 20
    Given how much our government has written off to other countries, this is simply nothing. But this is the basis for conversations with any government of Ukraine.
  11. Avior
    Avior 21 December 2018 10: 46
    Does the author generally know that in 2018 the state debt of Ukraine in relation to GDP went down?
    As of the summer, it fell to 63 percent of GDP, according to forecasts at the end of the year, b0%, next year to 52% of GDP.
    The ratio of the total state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine to GDP in 2017 decreased from 80,9% to 71,8%
  12. BAI
    BAI 21 December 2018 13: 26
    are they sure that Poroshenko’s successors will pay these debts?

    Any next government can declare - loans are a political bribe to the previous regime and do not pay, as has already been checked once. Anyway, there’s nothing to take from Ukraine.
  13. Antares
    Antares 21 December 2018 13: 46
    that the author mixed everything in one heap and gave some kind of base to the mountain
    The IMF documents said that in total we can talk about more than 10 billion dollars under the new 14-month stand-by program. Poroshenko, in his triumphant remarks, managed to recall more than once that he had agreed with the “currency traders from the fund” back in September, but somehow forgets to say that the previous program, which included a more impressive amount of $ 17,5 billion, was curtailed. .

    Well, the author watched that the programs are different
    in 2015, the IMF approved for Ukraine a four-year program of extended financing (EFF) with a total volume of about 17,5 billion dollars. Initially, the program involved a quarterly review of the program. The first tranche amounted to $ 5 billion. Ukraine was able to almost in time to receive the second tranche of $ 1,7 billion in early August 2015, after which there was a long pause in the promotion of the program. In 2016, negotiations resumed, and the IMF decided to allocate the third tranche - $ 1 billion - in mid-September 2016, and the fourth on April 3, 2017.
    and the IMF changed the assistance program they worked with to the stand-by program. And the stand-by international assistance program is given to those countries that have emerged from a pre-default state.
    I, of course, understand the social significance of Ukraine for the Russian Federation as "Obraza", but the data on the export network.
    Ukraine no longer has coal for export, and Ukraine almost leaves grain for export. And it seems that the very prospect that the tsarist Minister of Finance Vyshnegradsky spoke about not shining still shines: “We will not eat it ourselves, but we will take it out.”

    2018 year
    In Ukraine, in the first seven months of 2018, exports of Ukrainian goods grew by 12,7% compared to the same period in 2017.
    total exports amounted to $ 26,9 billion. Thus, the growth of Ukrainian exports has been going on for 19 consecutive months.
    As noted, the first place in the export structure remains agricultural and food products - about $ 9,8 billion, but it is noted that its share decreased by 0,6% compared with the first 7 months of 2017. In second place - the products of the metallurgical complex, which exported $ 7,2 billion - 30,1% more than last year.
    In addition, Ukrainian manufacturers exported engineering products ($ 3,2 billion, an increase of 14,9%), mineral products ($ 2,5 billion, an increase of 7,4%), chemical products ($ 1,5 billion, an increase of 26,1 , 1,2%), wood and paper pulp ($ 29,5 billion, an increase of 716,7%), as well as light industry products ($ 18,7 million, an increase of XNUMX%).
    in percentage terms, agriculture holds the lead, with exports of products accounting for 36,4% of all Ukrainian exports. In second place is the metallurgical complex with 26,8% of exports, in third - engineering products - 11,8%.
    The main export destination remains the European Union.
    “The EU remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner. Export of goods to the countries of the European Union grew by 18,7% compared to the 7 months of 2017 and amounted to about 11,3 billion dollars. At the same time, its share in the total export of goods from Ukraine following the results of 7 months of 2018 is 42,1%. In addition to the EU, Ukraine sold most of its goods in the first 7 months of 2018 to Russia (8% of total exports), Turkey (5,8%), India (5,2%), China (4,2%), Egypt (4,1%)
    was on the 50th place among the largest exporters
    And the main conclusion of the article is that again the horror story is Ukrainian duty, this is the problem of the Russian Federation ... why? Does Russia have few of its debts? Or does someone require Ukrainian?
    Or is it extra drops of hatred (supposedly not only do they radishes weigh their debts on us)?
  14. Vlad Petrov
    Vlad Petrov 21 December 2018 14: 54
    At the wedding in a robin, they gave 1,4 billion dollars. Full trousers of joys, but there is nothing to rejoice. One of the IMF requirements is the termination in Ukraine of the practice of “social” energy pricing. Today, within the allotted limits, Ukrainians can pay gas at a reduced price, heat, this will not happen. Ukrainians will pay twice. The first time they have the money will go to pay interest on loans, and the second. When they will return credit money from their taxes. Success Ukrain problems are not ours.
  15. iouris
    iouris 23 December 2018 23: 10
    They are robbing the natural wealth of the USSR in vain: China, Korea, Japan, Poland ... Everyone flocked to a feast. A divided USSR pays some huge debts, and they are growing all the time. The Russian country, and now the church, is torn to pieces - this is what the head should hurt about.
  16. Andrei Nikolaevich
    Andrei Nikolaevich 24 December 2018 10: 12
    Of course, I always respected and respect the GDP .. How not to be indignant, but he did a lot for the country ..
    But with the Ukrainians screwed up. These three lard will never return, never. But being cynical, like all lawyers, I think that it is necessary to spoil Ukrainians so that they get this 10 billion loss. But to do this, diplomatically, politely and with respect, towards, historically, the fraternal people,
    And most importantly, the look should be ,, clean, kind ,, :-)
  17. Alexander X
    Alexander X 24 December 2018 18: 50
    The IMF is far from being idiot old people. Everything has been calculated .... Under the loans issued, Ukraine will be / has already been transformed into an aggressive Russia and a pocket state for the United States. A sort of evil biting goblin in the underbelly of Russia. All money spent on Ukraine will be / have already been returned a hundredfold through the acquisition of means of production and land in Ukraine, the acquisition of an army of slaves, causing multibillion-dollar losses to Russia .... IMHO ... Well, war is like a basis for writing off the debt. Surely, in the credit agreements in the "force majeure" section, military actions with neighboring states are named. And this, at least, suspends the accrual and payment of interest and settlements on the body of the debt.