Military Review

The “shadow CIA” forecast for 2019 year: we will surround them, they will resist

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The American analytical company Stratfor, known worldwide as the “shadow CIA”, has published some analytical findings related to the 2019 forecast for the year. In particular, we are talking about the US-Russian relations, which are clearly presented there as a confrontation. And if you believe American analysts, we should not expect much improvement. The main efforts of the American administration and special services will be focused on work in the states bordering Russia, and they will be aimed at tightening the pressure on Moscow.


Probably, in such a forecast there is nothing surprising or even unexpected. But some details should be considered more closely, especially since the company enjoys well-deserved authority in certain circles (this is not “National Interest”), and its experts are distinguished by a rather high quality of work.



One of the important aspects of the coming confrontation, experts at Stratfor, consider the qualitative change in the military component of the relationship. After the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty announced by Washington, it is obvious that Russia will be forced to somehow respond to potential changes in the US military presence at its borders. Perhaps this will result in the further strengthening of the Russian military grouping in the Kaliningrad region and Belarus, which is necessary for some balancing of NATO on its borders. This will not add to the sides mutual sympathy and friendliness; on the contrary, it will tighten the noose of the crisis even tighter.

Experts analyze Stratforr and all three areas where our former "brothers" in the USSR are concentrated, highlighting the main goal of American efforts in each of them.

In the western direction, of course, Ukraine will remain Washington’s priority goal. Stating the important role that America played in supporting and strengthening Kiev, some relatively new areas of American efforts stand out by analysts. In particular, a certain emphasis is placed on strengthening the Ukrainian fleet in the Sea of ​​Azov, which is already called the "potential hot spot." It is also noted that the aggravation of the conflict in Azov will lead to the disruption, if not all of the “Minsk agreements”, then at least to the cessation of the further negotiation process. As a result, experts conclude that a peaceful settlement in the east of Ukraine is unlikely and there is no reason to expect significant progress and deployment of UN peacekeepers in 2019.

Among other things, efforts to “loosen up” Belarus will continue. Moreover, in addition to the usual subversive methods, it is assumed that attempts will be made to influence the top leadership of Belarus through various economic incentives. Nevertheless, it is expected that next year there will be no fundamental changes in the Belarusian direction, and Minsk will retain a strategic focus on Moscow.

For the first time in many years, the Caucasian direction received a clear anti-Russian impulse associated with the April “color revolution” in Yerevan. Therefore, according to the authors of the report, the efforts of the American administration will focus primarily on this country.

Stressing the tension that has arisen between Yerevan and Moscow, analysts consider it most likely that Washington will continue to drive wedges between our countries. On the whole, the current situation is estimated as an excellent chance to “turn over” the key ally of Russia in Transcaucasia.

Azerbaijan is very interested in the United States not only as one of the states on the border of the Russian Federation, but also as a possible party to pressure on Iran. He, however, does not differ in particular obstinacy: by lowering the level of trade relations with Tehran before the official entry into force of American sanctions against Iran (in particular, by ceasing purchases of Iranian gas), Baku proved that he was not going to go against Washington.

And on the last of the remaining strategic directions, Central Asian, Americans are most interested in Uzbekistan. Judging fairly this country as a key player from the entire post-Soviet Central Asian five, the Americans are planning to impose on Moscow a serious competitive struggle for Tashkent.

This will probably be done in several ways. In particular, in the area of ​​combating terrorism and drug trafficking. A revival of Washington's economic ties with Tashkent is also expected, precisely in spite of growing investments from Russia and China. Uzbekistan, in turn, will try to extract the maximum benefit from this situation, actively playing in both directions, and even not forgetting about Beijing’s interest.

Summarizing, the authors of the report state that the actions of the United States to penetrate the periphery of Russia will be dictated by the response measures of Moscow.

In an effort to exploit the division of Europe and undermine the unity of the EU and NATO, Russia will actively participate in conducting a hybrid war against the West, interfering in the policies of other countries, spreading propaganda, conducting cyber attacks and covert operations against Western and Western-oriented countries such as Ukraine and states Baltic States.


What is particularly noteworthy in this report is the composure with which certain things are outlined. Yes, we will climb directly to the borders of the Russian Federation, destabilizing the territories, which by all canons belong to the sphere of the vital interests of Moscow. Yes, Moscow will have to react, leading a hybrid war against us. So what? It’s just the way the world works: the US should dominate and thrive, which means that Russia should suffer and, ideally, fall apart.

This is not explicitly stated, but it is meant literally in every paragraph of the report. Moreover, unlike the absolute majority of the American media, without hysteria and wringing of hands: a serious publication for serious people writes in a language understandable to them. Maybe they are all deeply sorry for all of them (in fact, of course, not), but the war against Russia is fair, since Russia is too big and not too obedient.

It is from these reports that you understand why the Anglo-Saxons are called "reptiloids." Solely because of the composure with which they are planning to kill.

And the truth is, "what is this?"

For the rest, it must be admitted, the report does not contain any revelations. Dry, concise, academic, a little even trite. This is not a flight of crazy fantasy with the undermining of Yellowstone Supervolcano, as we sometimes see in our “analysts”: everything is very pragmatic and tested many times in practice. "We will make efforts, they will resist." Everything can probably be reduced to this phrase.

And it even causes some envy. Just compare it with our eternal ritual about "reliable partnership" and world peace. Words tend to materialize sometimes. But, alas, this applies only to such pragmatic, moderately detailed plans for the future, and not to abstract complacent mantras. And personally, it seems to me that it is not a sin to discuss in the serious Russian media the options for the Russian offensive in Ukraine or a preemptive strike on US missile defense facilities in Poland.
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Stratfor
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  1. Proton
    Proton 22 November 2018 11: 20
    +12
    But there is nothing new in the report, since the time of Tsar Gorokh this song has been sung, it is necessary to prepare and beat proactively, and not howl about "international law", it has long been half dead. request
    1. Machito
      Machito 22 November 2018 11: 38
      +13
      International law died under US bombs in Serbia. The cold war will only increase. Negotiations in Moscow with the Libyan and Afghan opposition suggest that Russia is considering opening new fronts against the United States.
    2. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 22 November 2018 11: 47
      +1
      Yes, we will climb directly to the borders of the Russian Federation, destabilizing territories that, according to all the canons, belong to the sphere of vital interests of Moscow. Yes, Moscow will have to react by waging a hybrid war against us. So what?

      He argues so calmly, because he is sure that Russia will play according to their rules. It would be strange to doubt - she was invited to the capitalist world, they determined a place in the list and ratings. set the course for the national currency and wait for this long-awaited Anglo-Saxon to happen
      "dominance". And if, well, friend, Russia abandons the rules that are destructive for it and obviously losing? What if the rest of the participants in the "game" start getting up from the table? Are you sure you have the power to put everyone back down?
      It’s just how the world works: the United States should dominate and prosper, which means Russia must suffer and, ideally, fall apart.

      Yes, never, at least until the last 70-80 years, the world was not so arranged that some dominated and prospered, and all the rest suffered and fell apart. This is the secret desire of the "members and circles" of the Bilderberg Community. A ridiculous desire ... But if, on the contrary, from each according to his ability and to each according to his work? belay Or prefer a choice? What then? Sickle or fir cone? lol
    3. ilimnoz
      ilimnoz 22 November 2018 12: 21
      +3
      Quote: Proton
      not howl about "international law", it has long been half dead.
      this right never existed, only conversations in order for the raped to receive at least some pleasure. there was always only the right of the strong.
      1. jjj
        jjj 22 November 2018 13: 34
        +1
        Sometime earlier, about twelve years ago, this desk made more detailed conclusions. Which even came true. And now it is pure cultural enlightenment just at the level of the notorious "Interest".
        The analysis of the general situation does not take into account that Russia has stated that it will certainly crash its nuclear triad. And once such a decision has been made, the use of conventional weapons becomes even more real. Syria has shown that we can fight quite successfully. And the traditional military mess does not interfere with achieving goals.
        In principle, everything is ready in Russia to repulse any aggressive plans. But look, there is no open aggression against us, our allies. After all, there are still only flowers in Armenia.
    4. Kent0001
      Kent0001 22 November 2018 13: 41
      +3
      Here I am about the same. Is someone surprised by the facts? The whole collective West wants our demise. All. They don’t need anything else.
      1. igorbrsv
        igorbrsv 24 November 2018 10: 51
        0
        We are all different here, but our common enemy unites us. In the event of our demise, the West will greatly sorghum. I hope the cause will be a certain mutation from radiation
  2. Valter1364
    Valter1364 22 November 2018 11: 22
    +3
    Any planning in relation to us from the outside is not possible! Since it is always based on certain concepts.
    So it turns out that while in Russia a mess, it is invincible!
  3. Lelek
    Lelek 22 November 2018 11: 24
    +3
    After Washington announced the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, it is obvious that Russia will be forced to somehow respond to potential changes in the US military presence at its borders
    .
    Well, the fact is that almost every step the United States takes on the international stage is another trick in relation to someone else - an open secret. An exceptional nation and exceptional abominations. In most cases, they are directed against our country - the enemy is what you take from it. So in the history of the INF Treaty, there was a hidden dirty trick, although the very act of withdrawing from the treaty is already an abomination on a global scale.
  4. kjhg
    kjhg 22 November 2018 11: 25
    +2
    The author has not revealed anything new to me. All this has long been realized by the Americans and Russia, being in a defensive position, continues to slowly lose ground: Eastern Europe, the Baltic states, Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus, and then Russia itself, are next in line.
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 24 November 2018 10: 28
      -2
      For rent. But she started to kick. Syria is like a hoof in their teeth. That's nervous. Somewhere surrendered, and somewhere hoof. As in Georgia, Syria, Crimea and a little Donbas.
  5. rocket757
    rocket757 22 November 2018 11: 33
    +4
    The only way to save the country, the nation, is to become stronger in all respects.
    Become a real force and center of attraction, partnership, for others.
    With our top, governing, opponents should just wait, we ourselves will crash.
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 22 November 2018 11: 56
      +5
      Quote: rocket757
      The only way to save the country, the nation, is to become stronger in all respects.

      Stronger than DPRK? She retained sovereignty ... Or stronger than Cuba? There, too, Americanism is not yet welcomed. And if you finish the songs about a weak Russia and a strong America and shove in the soup for example in Syria. Just bloody snot. It is necessary to pinch these vypendrezhnik. And for any fire incident, warn:
    2. Cat Kuzya
      Cat Kuzya 22 November 2018 12: 13
      +5
      The only way to save the country, the nation, is to become stronger in all respects.
      Become a real force and center of attraction, partnership, for others.

      This is yes ... With the impoverished people being levied by more and more extortions, with legislators who do not give a damn about these people, with oligarchs busy with the next stuffing their money in countries and banks, with the government playing their own games, understandable only to the IMF, " ", with the country's leadership, anxious about the next" HPP "..... We are not interested in anybody with this, in terms of" social proposal "or" socio-political and economic attractiveness ", everyone shies away from us, like the plague ones .. ..
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 22 November 2018 13: 45
        +4
        Too easy! changing the intro!
        Russia must become strong militarily and economically HOLD, world-wide ... then no one will dare to run into, and allies will line up!
        Quote: ROSS 42
        And if you finish the songs about a weak Russia and a strong America and shove in the soup for example in Syria.

        We will scoop up where we really are WEAKTER, we will keep the borders with all our might, and then the forces will decrease!
        We don’t have a STRONG, COMBINING all, power. We don’t have much .... there isn’t much, but there are those who hold power, whose interests are not connected with this country!
        Quote: Kuzya the Cat
        We are not interesting to anyone, with this, in terms of "social proposal" or "socio-political and economic attractiveness," everyone shies away from us, like the plague ...

        From hatred to love, one step ... and then the maxim at the expense of OUR POWER!
      2. Vladimir 5
        Vladimir 5 24 November 2018 23: 11
        0
        They are absolutely right, because the Russian Federation is also helpless and is losing ground, the noose at the borders is more and more delayed. And protection is not possible with such an internal situation, a compassionate government, lasting to the betrayal of the oligarchy. We need to expect problems for the authorities, when life has long become a hopeless problem for the people ...: The stratforces were the main bargaining chip - they are already thinking about warming up the internal problems expected in the near future in the Russian Federation, as those who have been in power for 18 years have no problem solving , and have time to steal more, while it is possible .....
  6. Ber
    Ber 22 November 2018 11: 39
    -1
    The American analytical company Stratfor, known worldwide as the “shadow CIA”, has published some analytical findings related to the 2019 forecast for the year.


    Already funny laughing

    In secret around the world Believe us ..... the glory of Ron Hubard does not rest for them on a hike ..... this is wrong for Zadornov, because there are real pros there, but these stuffing baboons laughing I read to the end now laughing
    1. Bigbraza
      22 November 2018 12: 09
      +6
      Quote: Ber
      The American analytical company Stratfor, known worldwide as the “shadow CIA”, has published some analytical findings related to the 2019 forecast for the year.


      Already funny laughing

      In secret around the world Believe us ..... the glory of Ron Hubard does not rest for them on a hike ..... this is wrong for Zadornov, because there are real pros there, but these stuffing baboons laughing I read to the end now laughing

      It is impossible to form public opinion with real reports of the CIA - it is really all secret there. But the task is still very important, so the agencies, like the one mentioned, have their own niche and do quite well with their goals. You can take it as a very, very much castrated report of the CIA for members of Congress, etc. important, but still not key figures.
  7. Ber
    Ber 22 November 2018 11: 46
    +1
    In the Mlyn masters, our military-industrial complex has something to learn from them, well ....
    Stratfor experts consider a qualitative change in the military component of the relationship to be one of the important aspects of the upcoming confrontation.


    Nothing personal only business, even at the cost of ... belay when you are considered a friend of a person a dog laughing

    For the sake of good deductions from the arms lobi in Congress, you can pretend to be an idio. Thus, the wise. laughing
    In Mlyn capitalism for the sake of grandmothers which only chimeras do not spit.
  8. akudr48
    akudr48 22 November 2018 11: 50
    +2
    The author substantiated the effect of Western actions on our borders and complained about Russia's slurred politics in response to this.

    But the fact is that the main ally of the West is the pro-Western elites of our country. In addition to humiliation, he will not look any further from the bottom up into the eyes of the main partner.

    Therefore, the defense of the country should begin from Moscow, which is impossible without a change in the elite.
    1. snake
      snake 22 November 2018 12: 11
      +4
      Quote: akudr48
      But the fact is that the main ally of the West is the pro-Western elites of our country. In addition to humiliation, he will not look any further from the bottom up into the eyes of the main partner.

      I also wanted to write something similar. Before entering the "international ring", you need to cure all your internal ailments.
    2. icant007
      icant007 22 November 2018 13: 49
      +4
      But where can this new "correct" elite come from? Do we have any intelligible system for selecting personnel for government agencies?
      1. igorbrsv
        igorbrsv 24 November 2018 10: 18
        0
        Then what's the problem? "There is no right elite." Why are they so concerned? Why is the USA and Europe tearing up their ass? Or do they already lack money for our "elite"? belay
  9. iouris
    iouris 22 November 2018 11: 59
    +1
    "Resist", they will. "Resistance", in fact, is about an occupied territory, when the war, in general, is lost or almost lost.
  10. Prisoner
    Prisoner 22 November 2018 12: 27
    +3
    Let them fuss. The main thing is that ours wouldn’t get too close to buy allies. Let the pins pay them.
  11. stalki
    stalki 22 November 2018 13: 01
    +3
    Everything written above is known to all. Just once again, as they say, emphasize the necessary.
  12. g1washntwn
    g1washntwn 22 November 2018 13: 01
    +4
    There is no point in discussing the obstinacy of the Americans. They never knew how, did not want and will not live within their means and honestly. "Dominate" does not reflect the meaning of their existence. "Parasite" is the very word.
  13. Operator
    Operator 22 November 2018 16: 12
    +1
    "Stratfor experts consider a qualitative change in the military component of relations to be one of the important aspects of the upcoming confrontation. After the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty announced by Washington, it is obvious that Russia will have to somehow react to potential changes in the American military presence at its borders. Perhaps this will result in further strengthening of the Russian military grouping in the Kaliningrad region and Belarus, necessary for some balancing of NATO on its borders, "- in this forecast, Stratfor was not childish: the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty would entail the deployment of Russian IRBMs in Europe and Asia and the re-targeting of the saved amount of Russian ICBMs and SLBMs to North America.

    If Stratfor does not understand such simple things, then he stopped catching mice laughing
  14. 1536
    1536 22 November 2018 16: 54
    +2
    It is interesting to assume that in the morning in American offices, workshops, classrooms, etc. local political information is conducted on what and how to perceive, what to do and how to look at it, who is the enemy, who is the friend, etc. Trumpets and other people come from the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA and, reading the reports prepared in advance on a piece of paper, making sure that everyone listens carefully and does not ask unnecessary questions, and their faces express stupidity, hang noodles on their ears, which even the Chinese do not dreamed. Yes, the Americans are not to be envied. It's time to call all EU countries and other US allies "countries of the American camp." And what is this if not a camp?
    They surround, you know. As it were, on this very circle, in the end, it would not be possible to get a special rounding wheel in the form of a good club. It is necessary to free the American people from such misfortune.
  15. Astronaut
    Astronaut 23 November 2018 18: 45
    +1
    in particular, stopping the purchase of Iranian gas

    And the author would not want to explain why Azerbaijan, which produces about 30 billion m3 per year and consumes only about 5 billion m3, should buy Iranian gas?
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 24 November 2018 10: 10
      0
      Take a cheap and drive through our pipe request
  16. igorbrsv
    igorbrsv 24 November 2018 10: 08
    0
    . A revival of Washington’s economic ties with Tashkent is also expected, in spite of growing investment from Russia and China.

    I admit US "investment" in Uzbekistan, but I cannot represent Tashkent peaches in the US.
    Regarding the article, that’s how I imagined everything
    1. Astronaut
      Astronaut 24 November 2018 14: 26
      0
      For starters, it’s necessary to close all the debts of Tashkent to Beijing. winked