Military Review

Moscow and Damascus risk losing half the course of the Euphrates. Fake maneuver with an attack on the SDF worked

21
At the same time, Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues his demonstration with absolutely feigned calls for Donald Trump, White House head, to stop supporting Syrian Democratic Forces fighters (including Kurdish PKK and YPG), ostensibly hinting that the first phase of the ground operation against The SDF in the region of the canton of Kobani, the CAA command, continues to blindly trust Ankara’s militant anti-American pathos and has even managed to once again step on the old rake. We are talking about the recent transfer of additional units of the Syrian government forces to the Deir ez-Zor area and to the section of the contact line with the Kurdish forces of the Syrian Democratic Forces in the province of Rakka (8,5 km south of the Et-Tabka airbase). According to the syria.liveuamap.com fighting map and Twitter, a page on the @VivaRevolt Syrian news resource, the Syrian Arab army has increased its presence here to maintain stability on the east coast of the Euphrates if will begin an assault on the north-western regions of Syrian Kurdistan, and the retreating SDF will attempt to force the Euphrates and occupy territories under the control of the Syrian army.




Nevertheless, it is necessary to recognize that this decision of the CAA command, with a high degree of probability agreed with the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, is deliberately a losing one, since there can be no talk of the offensive of the Turkish ground forces on the canton of Kobani and even more Regular inclusion of this topic on the agenda of various rounds of the Turkish-American negotiations, as well as in the texts of press conferences and Erdogan’s statements is an attempt to divert the Russian and Syrian sides from Turkey’s true regional ambitions, as well as from the fact that Ankara and Washington work in a single anti-Russian “ bundle ". Even if we temporarily move away from the geopolitical component of this intricacy and dwell on the operational-tactical scenario, it becomes clear that the offensive operation of the Turkish army on the eastern bank of the Euphrates will “choke” on the 20th-30th kilometer of the “breakthrough”.

After all, the most combat-ready Kurdish units of the Syrian Democratic Forces, possessing modern American anti-tank missile weapons, including the Javelin FGM-148 ATGM capable of “detonating” Turkish Sabra Mk60 and Leopards, will be involved in stopping the Turkish offensive. 2A2 ”in the most vulnerable parts of the upper armor plates of the corps in the MTO area and the tower. Moreover, Kurds may well be provided with direct support from the artillery batteries of the US Marine Corps, which will work on the upcoming Turkish units from HIMARS MLRS and 4-mm towed howitzers M155A777. The most powerful fortified areas of the American army and divisions of the French marines have been erected to date on the territory of the cement plant Lafarge SE, as well as in the settlements of Manbij, Ain Isa, Sabt, Ain al-Arab, Ain Dadad, Ashariya, Kharab Isk, Tell Tamir, Tell-Beidar, Al-Shaddadi and Rmeilan. Most of them are located at a distance of no more than 2 km from the Syrian-Turkish border and are covered with tactical fighter jets F-30E "Strike Eagle", as well as the barely noticeable fighter jets of the X-generation F-15A "Raptor". Conclusion: there is not a single argument in favor of the Turkish attack on the SDF positions in Syrian Kurdistan, which means that the concentration of CAA units in the above areas undermines the combat stability of the Syrian army in far more unpredictable operational areas.

First of all, we are talking about the Idlib direction, where the militants of the Islamic Party of Turkestan, the so-called People’s Liberation Front and Tahrir ash-Sham, following the Ankara rush, gradually increase the number of shelling from heavy machine guns and artillery strikes against villages and masks of the Syrian army, located in the provinces of Hama and Aleppo, which only in the last week led to the death of more than 10 Syrian troops. As we can see, no observance of the ceasefire regime by Turkey, established during the Sochi round of talks between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan on September 17, is already out of the question, not to mention Ankara’s positioning as a guarantor of the 15- established by the Sochi agreements 20-kilometer demilitarized zone. Everything points to the fact that the joint US-Turkish plan to loosen the combat capability of the CAA with an attempt to further squeeze it out of the central regions of Syria remains in force.

A more explosive situation is observed in the south-western regions of the republic (in the desert of the Deir-ez-Zor governorate, as well as along the Euphrates channel between the cities of Meyadin and Abu-Kemal). Thus, the Syrian Democratic Forces, citing the need to transfer the best units allegedly to block the offensive of the Turkish army in Kobani, completely stopped the anti-Igilov operation “Storm of Jazeera” in the “Hadzhinsky pocket”, while the US Air Force continued its demonstration performance with drawing “fake "Rocket-bomb strikes on the same fortified areas near Hadzhin, which was done solely to put Washington in a favorable light in front of Western European media space and world community Twomey. All this allowed the IG formations (forbidden in Russia) to return under control vast territories in the Baguz Takhtmi triangle - Lake Sabhat Mallah - Khadzhin (together with the oil fields of Mintaqat Abu Kemal and Susah and adjacent heights). Consequently, the jihadists completely restored their offensive potential to force the Euphrates and attack cities on the west bank of the great river.


Tactical situation in the area of ​​the Euphrates, the “Hadzhinsky pocket” and the “sleeping cauldron” of the IG on the west bank of the Euphrates on the night of November 18


Against this background, the awakening of the largest 165-kilometer IG “sleeping boiler” (it was never cleared by government forces), located in the desert area of ​​the Deir-ez-Zor and Homs provinces, occurred. On the night of 18 in November 2018, several pseudo-caliphate units advanced in the direction of the Euphrates and attempted to assault the Syrian army strongholds in the villages of El-Kishmah, Wadi al-Khavr, as well as the strategically important city of Meyadin. This throw of militants at the same time on three operational directions, marked on the tactical online map of syria.liveuamap.com, despite its successful failure, was the most serious and revealing in the past few months.

It was carried out on the front section of width 35 km. And this only indicates one thing - the possibility of combining the efforts of the Hadzhin igilovtsy with the militants from the "sleeping cauldron" on the west bank of the Euphrates. Another two-three such attacks could be fraught with blocking the southern (Palmyra-Abu-Kemal) and northern (Deir-ez-Zor - Meyadin) motorway corridors, which would deprive the advanced units of the CAA in Al-Asharah, El-Kuria and Meyadin the possibility of obtaining material technical support, and this is a direct path to the new Meyadinsky boiler, which, after the relevant shadow deals between the SDF headquarters and the field commanders of the IG under the auspices of the US Central Command, will simply be in the hands of the ILC and the United States. This is one of several variants of the American “Plan B”, which is closest to implementation. To prevent its implementation, the Syrian Armed Forces command and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces should move away from the practice of thoughtless trust to Erdogan’s statements about the inevitable attack on Northern Kurdistan, and also project all the CAA’s defensive capabilities on the formation of a “barrier” in the Abu Kemal and Meyadin areas.

Information sources:
https://rusturkey.com/post/200645/turciya-sobrala-6500-boevikov-dlya-nastupleniya-v-sirii
https://syria.liveuamap.com/
https://riafan.ru/1121862-erdogan-prizval-trampa-prekratit-podderzhku-kurdov-v-sirii
http://rusvesna.su/news/1469639156
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21 comment
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  1. Whisper
    Whisper 20 November 2018 06: 07
    +6
    "The Syrian Armed Forces and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces must move away from the practice of thoughtless trust in Erdogan's statements" - that's it, period.
    1. Machito
      Machito 20 November 2018 11: 44
      +4
      GDP knows best how to interact with Erdogan. And the unexpected success of the peacekeeping operation in Syria confirms that far from gullible fools are sitting in the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces.
  2. asv363
    asv363 20 November 2018 08: 20
    +3
    Briefing by the Center for Reconciliation of the Belligerents in the Syrian Arab Republic (November 19, 2018)

    Despite the established regime for the cessation of hostilities, violations continue to be carried out by illegal armed groups operating in the IDLIBA DEESCALATION ZONE.

    Over the past day, militants fired twice at positions of government forces of the SAR armed forces in the area of ​​the village of DZHUBB-EL-ZARUR of the province of LATAKIA and made eight shelling of residential quarters in the northwestern part of the city of ALEPPO. As a result of the shelling of the quarter of the research center in ALEPPO, two were killed and seven soldiers of the SAR armed forces were wounded.

    The Russian Center for Reconciliation calls on the commanders of illegal armed groups to abandon armed provocations and embark on a peaceful settlement of the situation in areas under their control.

    Probably, it is worth using more significant means of coercion to peace in the SAR, which without a doubt exist among the SAA and the Russian group of forces.

    And the creation of all sorts of de-escalation zones - the same "Minsk agreements", side view.
  3. Soho
    Soho 20 November 2018 08: 27
    +8
    Kurds may well be directly supported by artillery batteries from the US Marine Corps, which will work on advancing Turkish units from the HIMARS MLRS and 155-mm towed howitzers M777A2

    what kind of fantasy flight does the author have?
  4. asura
    asura 20 November 2018 09: 14
    +6
    How tired of this crazy copywriter with his pseudo-analytics ...
  5. BAI
    BAI 20 November 2018 09: 21
    +2
    this decision of the CAA command, with a high degree of probability agreed with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia

    Even with probability.
    But why is the author not the chief of the General Staff, or at least the GRU?
    1. Gray-haired
      Gray-haired 20 November 2018 10: 48
      +4
      Could be, but the exam will not pass. wink
  6. gunnerminer
    gunnerminer 20 November 2018 09: 33
    0
    Do not sleep under the hat, intelligence!
  7. KURT330
    KURT330 20 November 2018 09: 36
    +4
    Damantsev taxis! laughing
    1. Gray-haired
      Gray-haired 20 November 2018 10: 50
      +1
      Steers! On a simulator for training in a kindergarten, driving a spoon on a plate with semolina. smile
  8. loaln
    loaln 20 November 2018 10: 15
    0
    "... is an attempt to distract the Russian and Syrian sides from the true regional ambitions of Turkey, as well as from the fact that Ankara and Washington are working in a single anti-Russian" bundle. "

    And what are the suckers who are being led to this?
    Although, for the grandmother can be sucked under the sucker.
  9. Warrior2015
    Warrior2015 20 November 2018 10: 56
    +2
    Quote: Yevgeny Damantsev
    While Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues his demonstration with completely feigned calls for White House head Donald Trump to stop supporting Syrian Democratic Forces fighters (including Kurdish PKK and YPG),
    Dear Eugene, thank you for another very interesting material, which, however, raised a number of questions. Why does Erdogan have demonstrative appeals? The Turks are more than opposed to the Kurds, even in Syria, and indeed have already repeatedly appealed to Washington with a request to "remove the allowance" of the Kurdish formations (so far without result).

    Quote: Yevgeny Damantsev
    Moreover, Kurds may well be provided with direct support from the artillery batteries of the US Marine Corps, which will work on the upcoming Turkish units from HIMARS MLRS and 155-mm towed howitzers M777A2. The most powerful fortified areas of the American army and divisions of the French marines have been erected to date on the territory of the cement plant Lafarge SE, as well as in the settlements of Manbij, Ain Isa, Sabt, Ain al-Arab, Ain Dadad, Ashariya, Kharab Isk, Tell Tamir, Tell-Beidar, Al-Shaddadi and Rmeilan. Most of them are located at a distance of no more than 30 km from the Syrian-Turkish border and are covered with tactical fighter jets F-15E "Strike Eagle", as well as the barely noticeable fighter jets of the X-generation F-5A "Raptor". Conclusion: there is not a single argument in favor of the Turkish attack on the SDF positions in Syrian Kurdistan
    Dear Yevgeny, it seems to me that you have somewhat got excited - the Americans are unlikely to enter into direct armed confrontation with the Turks for the sake of the Kurds (the armed confrontation between two NATO members is almost fiction), they will simply try not to bring this to on the Turkish economy, if Erdogan decides to begin to smash the Kurds)

    Quote: Yevgeny Damantsev
    On the night of 18 in November 2018, several pseudo-caliphate units advanced in the direction of the Euphrates and attempted to assault the Syrian army strongholds in the villages of El-Kishmah, Wadi al-Khavr, as well as the strategically important city of Meyadin.
    Unfortunately, after talking with a number of people, yet I (and not only me) became increasingly convinced that the state of DAISH is no pseudochaliphate, but the real one, created after the external samples of the Caliphate of the Muhammad period. , just ultra-radical and terrorist for our time ...
  10. iouris
    iouris 20 November 2018 11: 06
    +1
    Quote: "... with a high degree of probability ..." End of quote.
    Probability is a measure of the possibility of an event occurring in a given series of experiments. The probability P is the number [0,1], but practically 0 <P <1. Raising P <1 to "large powers" gives a very low probability (P = 0). Thus, one should say "... with a high probability."
    Essentially. Yes, there is a problem: the enemy controls the most important territories for the Syrian economy, routes, water and other resources, while on our side the emphasis is on controlling the territory in general. Here we should recall the methodological principle widely known in the past: "Less is more."
    1. iouris
      iouris 20 November 2018 11: 56
      0
      The test is distorted.
      After "... but practically 0 <P <1". It is easy to see that when the number 0 <P <1 is raised to a "large power", the result tends to zero. It is correct to say "highly probable".
      1. iouris
        iouris 20 November 2018 11: 57
        0
        Clear. "Weeds" cannot be fixed. As long as you keep doing what you are doing, you will have the result that you have.
  11. Cat Kuzya
    Cat Kuzya 20 November 2018 11: 27
    -2
    We, in Syria, have already “won everyone and it’s time to establish a peaceful process of rebuilding the state” - so, in my opinion, quite recently, Russian officials expressed themselves at all briefings on the situation in Syria. And then on you, everything turns out to be "as it was, it is ... it never happened and now, again" (Chernomyrdin).
  12. rocket757
    rocket757 20 November 2018 11: 35
    +1
    Difficult, the game is muddy! It’s good not to step on the old rake, but no one has learned this .... in the best case, less often!
  13. Radikal
    Radikal 20 November 2018 11: 47
    0
    ... the command of the SAA continues to blindly trust the warlike anti-American pathetics of Ankara and has even managed to once again step on the old rake.
    It will be more true this way - the SAA command continues to blindly trust Moscow, which in turn blindly trusts Ankara .... sad
  14. Vadim237
    Vadim237 20 November 2018 14: 13
    0
    Hello "Fairy Tale".
  15. wolf111
    wolf111 20 November 2018 20: 04
    0
    November 21. So, the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, citing the need to transfer the best units supposedly to block the Turkish army’s offensive in Kobani, completely stopped the anti-Igil operation “Jazira storm” in the “Khadzhin pocket” .....
    11th of November. QSD Resumes Final Phase of Jazeera Storm Campaign
    The Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) have decided to resume the final phase of the Battle to Win Terrorism campaign of the Jazeera Storm, which has been temporarily suspended due to the Turkish occupation attacks in northern Syria. The Democratic Syrian Forces have confirmed that they will resume the campaign while indicating that they will defend northern Syria from any attack. http://www.hawarnews.com/ru/
  16. steelmaker
    steelmaker 23 November 2018 14: 12
    0
    Looks like our military bombs are out? They leave some boilers in the rear. They allow the agreement not to be fulfilled and not observed. It looks like we are witnessing the beginning of the "Hundred Years War".