Trampoline for "Roskosmos"
Already in 2019, the first manned spacecraft made their first test flights: Crew Dragon from SpaceX and Starliner from Boeing. And "Crew Dragon" should fly already with the crew. If the tests are successful, America will gain independence from Russia in space and cooperation in this matter is likely to end.
The Americans themselves believe that everything is very promising in the space industry: SpaceX provided a fairly cheap launch of commercial satellites into orbit, space tourism is actively developing, where new products from Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are expected to appear, and successfully) implemented various research missions in deep space. The situation darkens only dependence on Russia. Moreover, this dependence is in such a sensitive area as manned cosmonautics.
The recent accident of the Russian carrier Soyuz-FG added fuel to the fire. Recognizing the merits of this space veteran, its absolute reliability, the Americans still very nervously perceived the message that the American astronaut almost died on a Russian rocket. Probably, the thing is that there they look at such things through the prism of some of the next elections. And everyone understands that if Tyler Nicholas Haig, an American, was found dead somewhere in the Kazakh steppe, the American media (especially pro-democracy) would be “trampled” on the Trump administration. Nobody would be interested in the fact that the flights of Americans on the Soyuz began long before the current president of the United States: after all, Russian hackers who choose American presidents are also a myth, and the media doesn’t interfere at all.
The constantly increasing price of the services of space "cabbies" is nervous of Americans. If it all started with a fairly modest amount of 26,4 million dollars for one seat on the Soyuz, now its value has increased, according to some data, already to 81 million! Of course, Roskosmos can be understood: it is a sin not to use its monopoly position in the market, especially if you consider that the “client” is about to develop its manned ships. But the Americans, of course, pragmatism of Russians is pretty much out of date: they are well aware that they largely contain Roscosmos, which is not only engaged in civil projects.
At the same time, it is still very difficult to unequivocally predict the date for the end of Russian-American space cooperation. The Americans, with all the victorious reports, are constantly shifting the deadlines for the development of their manned spacecraft. Moreover, at one time they were very optimistic about the project “Constellation” by the year 2014, with which they planned to get to the ISS and even to the Moon. But, alas, “something went wrong”, and the traditional for the United States optimism was replaced by a much more realistic view of things.
This is due, among other things, to very high security requirements for such projects. 2019 the year, although it is announced the year of the beginning of the "combat" tests of new manned ships, is unlikely to be the year of their acceptance into service. This is all the more true that the Americans certainly don’t need any catastrophes with their own ship - if cooperation with the Russians can be “hanged” on Obama, then for his own haste, Trump, happen, he will answer fully and without discounts. But in the US they are already thinking about the presidential election of 2020.
For Russia, too, everything is far from being as rosy as one would like to think. Even D. Rogozin acknowledged that Roskosmos largely exists on money earned from the export of services, that is, transporting Americans and launching satellites.
Dm Rogozin:
With commercial launches of satellites, it is becoming increasingly difficult: Ilon Musk is increasingly taking away our bread, and a significant number of unsuccessful launches in recent years have deterred customers. The refusal of cooperation with the United States under the program of the ISS will make a huge gap in the budget of the department. It is clear that the state will not leave Roscosmos in trouble, but so far it’s not very likely that “effective managers” are eager to spend additional budget money on space.
Dm Rogozin:
But let's be realistic: a break with the United States is simply inevitable. The only question is how soon it will take place: in the next year or two, or will it be delayed until 2024, when will the USA finish allocating funds for the ISS? After that, the question “what’s next?” Will be more relevant for Russia and Roscosmos, rather than for the United States and NASA.
And here everything is not so rosy, as we would like. For example, Americans are seriously considering new near-moon projects ("Lunar Orbital Platform - Gateway", or a project near the moon orbital station). More precisely, initially this project was considered as international, including with the participation of Russia, but now there is no certainty that Russia is guaranteed a place in it.
Dm Rogozin:
Actively develop overseas and research missions to the outskirts of the solar system, with which we, frankly, traditionally somehow do not add up.
In turn, according to Andrei Ionin, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, “after the ISS, Russia will have little to offer the United States in the field of space”.
Only their own projects remain. But after the introduction of international sanctions, optimism in this matter has somehow subsided. If recently we had talked about the Russian championship on Mars and the exploration of the moon, then now such conversations are no longer heard.
Yes, other projects remain: more pragmatic, such as the finishing of the Angara launch vehicle, military and dual-purpose satellites, and research projects in near space. And this, of course, necessary and useful activities, which in no case should not be neglected.
But if you advise someone to use the trampoline, you need to act immediately and beat, as long as it really hurts.
And now the time seems to have been lost. The very same with a trampoline would not stay! With the existing statistics of emergency starts it is quite likely.
The Americans themselves believe that everything is very promising in the space industry: SpaceX provided a fairly cheap launch of commercial satellites into orbit, space tourism is actively developing, where new products from Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are expected to appear, and successfully) implemented various research missions in deep space. The situation darkens only dependence on Russia. Moreover, this dependence is in such a sensitive area as manned cosmonautics.
The recent accident of the Russian carrier Soyuz-FG added fuel to the fire. Recognizing the merits of this space veteran, its absolute reliability, the Americans still very nervously perceived the message that the American astronaut almost died on a Russian rocket. Probably, the thing is that there they look at such things through the prism of some of the next elections. And everyone understands that if Tyler Nicholas Haig, an American, was found dead somewhere in the Kazakh steppe, the American media (especially pro-democracy) would be “trampled” on the Trump administration. Nobody would be interested in the fact that the flights of Americans on the Soyuz began long before the current president of the United States: after all, Russian hackers who choose American presidents are also a myth, and the media doesn’t interfere at all.
The constantly increasing price of the services of space "cabbies" is nervous of Americans. If it all started with a fairly modest amount of 26,4 million dollars for one seat on the Soyuz, now its value has increased, according to some data, already to 81 million! Of course, Roskosmos can be understood: it is a sin not to use its monopoly position in the market, especially if you consider that the “client” is about to develop its manned ships. But the Americans, of course, pragmatism of Russians is pretty much out of date: they are well aware that they largely contain Roscosmos, which is not only engaged in civil projects.
At the same time, it is still very difficult to unequivocally predict the date for the end of Russian-American space cooperation. The Americans, with all the victorious reports, are constantly shifting the deadlines for the development of their manned spacecraft. Moreover, at one time they were very optimistic about the project “Constellation” by the year 2014, with which they planned to get to the ISS and even to the Moon. But, alas, “something went wrong”, and the traditional for the United States optimism was replaced by a much more realistic view of things.
This is due, among other things, to very high security requirements for such projects. 2019 the year, although it is announced the year of the beginning of the "combat" tests of new manned ships, is unlikely to be the year of their acceptance into service. This is all the more true that the Americans certainly don’t need any catastrophes with their own ship - if cooperation with the Russians can be “hanged” on Obama, then for his own haste, Trump, happen, he will answer fully and without discounts. But in the US they are already thinking about the presidential election of 2020.
For Russia, too, everything is far from being as rosy as one would like to think. Even D. Rogozin acknowledged that Roskosmos largely exists on money earned from the export of services, that is, transporting Americans and launching satellites.
Dm Rogozin:
Earlier, the state corporation lived on funds coming from foreign economic activity, if specifically, from selling to the Americans seats for flights to the ISS on our ships. Now this money has run out, and the corporation gets little dividends. And this sharply narrows the financial maneuver of the head structure of the industry, moreover, the Khrunichev Center constantly requires funds for daily needs.
With commercial launches of satellites, it is becoming increasingly difficult: Ilon Musk is increasingly taking away our bread, and a significant number of unsuccessful launches in recent years have deterred customers. The refusal of cooperation with the United States under the program of the ISS will make a huge gap in the budget of the department. It is clear that the state will not leave Roscosmos in trouble, but so far it’s not very likely that “effective managers” are eager to spend additional budget money on space.
Dm Rogozin:
And for the Pentagon, Musk sells launches at twice the price and covers his losses in the commercial market, killing competitors beyond which such a generous state does not loom
. But let's be realistic: a break with the United States is simply inevitable. The only question is how soon it will take place: in the next year or two, or will it be delayed until 2024, when will the USA finish allocating funds for the ISS? After that, the question “what’s next?” Will be more relevant for Russia and Roscosmos, rather than for the United States and NASA.
And here everything is not so rosy, as we would like. For example, Americans are seriously considering new near-moon projects ("Lunar Orbital Platform - Gateway", or a project near the moon orbital station). More precisely, initially this project was considered as international, including with the participation of Russia, but now there is no certainty that Russia is guaranteed a place in it.
Dm Rogozin:
If this is a purely American project, and all the rest should be on the pickup, then we are not interested. We are ready only for equal cooperation.
Actively develop overseas and research missions to the outskirts of the solar system, with which we, frankly, traditionally somehow do not add up.
In turn, according to Andrei Ionin, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, “after the ISS, Russia will have little to offer the United States in the field of space”.
Only their own projects remain. But after the introduction of international sanctions, optimism in this matter has somehow subsided. If recently we had talked about the Russian championship on Mars and the exploration of the moon, then now such conversations are no longer heard.
Yes, other projects remain: more pragmatic, such as the finishing of the Angara launch vehicle, military and dual-purpose satellites, and research projects in near space. And this, of course, necessary and useful activities, which in no case should not be neglected.
But if you advise someone to use the trampoline, you need to act immediately and beat, as long as it really hurts.
And now the time seems to have been lost. The very same with a trampoline would not stay! With the existing statistics of emergency starts it is quite likely.
Information