Military Review

Polish gas ambitions

38
A few days ago TASS issued a message from Gazprom chairman Alexei Miller about a sharp increase in purchases of Russian gas by Poland. “Poland is among the leading countries in terms of increasing demand and consumption of Russian gas,” the agency quoted Miller as saying. - For nine and a half months, it increased its purchase by almost 10% compared to the same period of 2017 of the year. Volume reached 8,9 billion cubic meters. For comparison, we supplied so much gas to Poland for the entire 2015 year. ”




In Warsaw, quarreled over Russian gas

To some extent, this message from the head of Gazprom was a response to the scandal in the highest Polish politician that occurred in October. The reason for him was the speech of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek апaputowicz at the conference “Poland in the light of crises”.

At that event, Chaputovich was asked whether Poland would buy Russian gas from Nord Stream-2? The minister replied diplomatically: “We will buy the cheapest gas, perhaps from the United States, perhaps from Germany.” However, the audience understood everything for sure - it was Russian gas that could come from Germany to Poland.

Experts rated the response of the Polish minister as a cautious attempt to “not hit the pots in relations with Moscow.” As is known, the term of the Russian-Polish agreement on gas supplies signed in 2010 will expire in 2022. That is, the Poles can bravely curse with Russia for several more years and use its inexpensive gas without any problems.

Today, Poland consumes about 15 billion cubic meters of gas per year. It produces one third of this amount in its fields. The remaining 70% of the country's gas balance is covered by supplies from Russia, which, as we see, only grow from year to year. The rejection of the Nord Stream-2, which the Nord Stream 2 AG consortium promises to complete by the end of the 2019 of the year, could create major problems for Poland.

Judging by the new rhetoric of Jacek Czaputovich, they began to understand this in Warsaw - though not all. The ex-Minister of Defense of Poland Antony Macierevich gave a sharp rebuke to the minister who did not lose influence in the conservative wing of the ruling Polish party Law and Justice. “I got the impression that Chaputovich made mistakes in his geopolitical efforts,” Maccherevich said. “Instead of supporting Polish national interests and the security of Poland, he maintains the security of Germany and the security of the German-Russian alliance.” Such an ideological confusion can be very inconvenient and even dangerous for Poland. ”

Another hardliner with respect to Russia, authorized by the Polish government on energy issues Peter Naimsky, agrees with Macharevich. He insists on a complete refusal to do business with Moscow and convinces the Poles that their gas needs will cover the capacity of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline under construction and the existing LNG regasification terminal in the Baltic port of Swinoujscie.

With Baltic Pipe Naimsky, of course, got very excited. This gas pipeline, which should connect Poland and Denmark, will not be built before the “Nord Stream-2”. The parties are firmly bogged down in the procedures for agreeing on the details of the project, and most importantly, the pipeline under construction should ensure gas supplies from 14 licensed fields in the North, Norwegian and Barents Seas, which have a share of the Polish gas company PGNiG.

There is even more fog than clarity. At licensed fields, the Poles in total produce only 573 million cubic meters of gas per year. PGNiG's promise to increase production to 2,5 - 3 billion cubic meters per year (under the design capacity of the Baltic Pipe) does not make the weather, because it is incomparable with the volume of deliveries of Russian Gazprom. There is still hope for the terminal in Swinoujscie, which is empty today, but it was built for a few other tasks.

Geopolitical wandering between the seas

The gas scandal in the Polish family happened shortly after the third summit of the Tri-Sea Initiative (Three Seas Initiative, TSI), held in September in Romania. This initiative is rightly associated with long-standing Polish ambitions. They go back to the beginning of the last century, when in Warsaw they were dreaming of creating a superstate of Eastern Europe, which would at first absorb Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and then Moldova, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia.

A hundred years ago, Polish dreams were unrealizable. In the new geopolitical conditions, Warsaw recalled its ambitions and began to spud its neighbors under the idea of ​​regional cooperation. The Visegrad Group countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia), the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia), as well as Croatia, Austria, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania agreed to join the project.

It turned out solid. A new informal association held its first summit in 2016 in Dubrovnik, Croatia. Even then, his goals were split. On the one hand, the participants of “Trimoria” saw their future in the joint development of infrastructure. After all, it still has one vector - from West to East. In this direction are the automobile and railway lines, oil and gas pipelines.

Eastern Europeans would like to deploy the infrastructure from North to South. One of their main wishes was a gas project that would link the existing re-gasification terminals in the Baltic (in Poland and Lithuania) with the LNG liquefaction terminal on the Adriatic island of Krk, which Croatia plans to build.

Polyakov is only partly satisfied with this option. In Warsaw, they see Trimorie, primarily as a geopolitical project, cutting Germany off from Russia and making it difficult for them to interact. This idea was actively supported in Washington. On the second summit of “Trimorie” in 2017, US President Donald Trump specially arrived in Warsaw.

Trump promised the new regional bloc the full support of the United States. True, on the sidelines of the summit, they understood this as support for the geopolitical project of Warsaw. Moreover, not so much against Germany and Russia, as against China and Western Europe, to which Beijing is now tormenting its “New Silk Road”.

At the summit in Bucharest, this has already been said bluntly. The host, represented by the presidential administration of Romania, emphasized that in addition to bringing the countries of Central and Southeastern Europe along the North-South axis in the energy, transport and communications sectors, the Trimore’s real desire to “strengthen transatlantic relations encouraging the US economic presence in the region. "

In Bucharest, they are counting on the financial support of the project by the Americans. After all, everyone understands that the main European donor is Germany (its representatives visited the Romanian summit as observers for the first time, and the FRG even received here the status of the general partner of Trimorje) is unlikely to open its wallet to finance the plans of this regional bloc. There is only hope for the United States.

The fact is that, inspired by the idea of ​​the regional partnership of the country of “Central Europe” (as the German Friedrich Naumann called them long before Trimoria), almost fifty investment projects and business plans worth 50 billion euros sprang up in joy. The poor countries did not master such a sum. In Bucharest, it was possible to raise a general fund only in 5 billion euros.

There were enough resources to launch some projects like the Via Carpatia motorway, which they want to connect the Baltic with the Adriatic, Black and Aegean seas. The main idea of ​​the “Initiative of the Three Seas” - the North-South gas pipeline (as an “energy alternative” to the Russian projects in the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas) - has not yet reached its hands.

Investors have doubts about its economic feasibility. There is no certainty that expensive liquefied natural gas from America (the Poles conceived their project under it) will be able to compete with Russian pipeline gas. As we see, these doubts were already manifested in the Polish political elite.

What will outweigh now: the political ambitions of Warsaw, which dreams of becoming an important regional center on the trade route between the East and the West, or economic reasons, which, through increased cooperation, raise the standard of living in the countries of Central Europe?

Much depends on who decides to spend the required billions of euros on Trimorie. It is this investor who will become the main beneficiary of the project, will determine its further political goals. While everyone is waiting. This makes Warsaw nervous and maneuvering, which was recently demonstrated by the Polish Minister Jacek Czaputovich.
Author:
Photos used:
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  1. Conductor
    Conductor 29 October 2018 12: 21
    +5
    Let them bury their apples, and then they extract methane from buried apples. And they are basking in this gas.
    1. Vard
      Vard 29 October 2018 13: 00
      +1
      From the point of view of common sense, the country with which you trade ... Is not dangerous ... Why cut a chicken laying golden eggs ... But it seems that the Poles with common sense are not all right ...
      1. Tatyana
        Tatyana 29 October 2018 13: 11
        +2
        It seems that it is Washington that inflates the brainless ambitions of the historically rotten "Great Noble" Poland, which it is reviving - with a painful complex of mental inferiority in geopolitics in the heads of its current national-political leaders.

        In this case, Duda, Matserevich, as well as the entire ruling party "Law and Freedom" in Poland - this is the whole fascist comprador creature of the United States.
        Neither they, nor the "Washington Regional Committee" itself cares about the true well-being of Poland itself and the Polish people and NATO countries.
        Washington and the "macerevichi" pursue purely anti-European American national-geopolitical interests - right up to the beginning of the US proxy-TMV with the Russian Federation.
        1. Dersturm
          Dersturm 29 October 2018 13: 57
          +1
          Why are the ambitions brainless ?? The more expensive the gas, the more gesheft to the "authorities", and the slaves will tighten their belts ... This is not the first and not the last case.
        2. dinis
          dinis 30 October 2018 01: 33
          0
          Washington, of course, is fanning the brainless ambitions of the Polish leadership, but I don’t think that the entire ruling party in Poland works only in the interests of the United States, it’s just that their interests coincide. The current Polish leadership is obsessed with creating a great Poland. As you said, it suffers from an inferiority complex in geopolitics, traditionally not historically He loves Russia, it’s stupid and runs into a conflict with many. It is obsessed and stupid and does not work in the interests of only the United States.
      2. white.eagle
        white.eagle 29 October 2018 16: 49
        +3
        in 1941, trade between the USSR and the Third Reich was very good
      3. ser6119
        ser6119 3 November 2018 21: 21
        0
        For a long time, to remember the time before the Second World War, they hoped for the Agles and wanted to defeat Germany and the USSR. And how it all ended! By the way, Germany was seriously preparing for the attack of the Psheks (Lair of the Earthworm) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenwurmlager Wiki.
    2. NF68
      NF68 29 October 2018 15: 24
      0
      Quote: Conductor
      Let them bury their apples, and then they extract methane from buried apples. And they are basking in this gas.


      Let them better use peas for the "production" of gas. I would like to hope that at least they will succeed.
    3. Semen1972
      Semen1972 31 October 2018 16: 50
      -1
      Quote: Conductor

      Let them bury their apples, and then they extract methane from buried apples. And they are basking in this gas.

      It is logical! Sell ​​gas to the enemy. crime, which the liberals go for the profit !!!
  2. Bull Terrier
    Bull Terrier 29 October 2018 12: 21
    +2
    How similar they are to Ukraine ... What garbage they always do, but in all seriousness) they sign a gas contract with the states, they yell so cheaply, forgetting to tell everyone that this price is at the issuing port) now they want a transit pipe with a 3-yard throughput overlap 15 real consumption))) are they at each other, are they learning stupid things?) with all this, according to forecasts, in the near future the needs from 15 to 19 should increase))) circus with horses)))
    1. credo
      credo 29 October 2018 13: 07
      +1
      Quote: Bull Terrier
      How similar they are to Ukraine ... What garbage they always do, but in all seriousness) they sign a gas contract with the states, they yell so cheaply, forgetting to tell everyone that this price is at the issuing port) now they want a transit pipe with a 3-yard throughput overlap 15 real consumption))) are they at each other, are they learning stupid things?) with all this, according to forecasts, in the near future the needs from 15 to 19 should increase))) circus with horses)))

      Yes, the Western Slavs were spoiled by irrepressible arrogance and lack of brains. Instead of uniting with Russia, they are ready to "make friends" with anyone, if only in opposition to Russia. Unfortunately, an analogy with Ukraine can be traced here.
      Of course, there are sober-minded people among the local politicians, but as I understand it, they were simply cornered and reprimanded, and those who sympathize with Russia were labeled "Kremlin agents." One thing the politicians of Poland cannot understand is that they will never play the first violin in anti-Russian hysteria - they are the instrument of this in this hysteria and they will be until the delirium of "Troyemorye" passes and they learn to live within their means.
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 29 October 2018 15: 08
        +3
        Understand them too. Well, it’s not Poland that doesn’t want us, but the Great Poland rulers. And they are afraid, or rather wildly afraid, of a simple thing. That one day their own people will tell them - get out. Let us enter Russia on the basis of autonomy and cease to pose as it is not clear to anyone.
        Actually, this is a universal fear of the elites of all our border states, because of which this phantasmagoria is going on. For an ordinary person, it is immeasurably better to live in a huge Empire than in a tiny state. There are more opportunities. And for the authorities? And it’s bitter poison for them. So they are at least in the chicken coop, and the presidents and parliamentarians. And do they pour into the Empire? A trifle ...
        1. white.eagle
          white.eagle 29 October 2018 17: 00
          -3
          If it is better to live in a huge Empire than in a tiny state, then it is better to enter America instead of poor and backward Russia. On the other hand, the Poles are already in the Empire, which is called the European Union. The Poles know that not everything in this empire is in order, but neither America, nor even Russia will ever give such money as Brussels. Those countries that could not enter this European empire regret today for this very reason.
          1. Mikhail3
            Mikhail3 29 October 2018 18: 26
            +1
            Quote: white.eagle
            If it is better to live in a huge Empire than in a tiny state, then it is better to enter America instead of poor and backward Russia.

            But God didn’t give a horny cow, the States are far away, and they don’t need Polish subjects, from the word in general.
            Quote: white.eagle
            in an empire called the European Union

            If the European Union is an empire, then the seas are on fire, the forests are flowing, the mouse drowned in stone ... a loose coalition without a real center, without a central authority, with a gang of bureaucrats cowardly to the faceless helm - Empire? Gee-gee-gee ...
          2. credo
            credo 29 October 2018 20: 32
            +2
            Quote: white.eagle
            If it is better to live in a huge Empire than in a tiny state, then it is better to enter America instead of poor and backward Russia. On the other hand, the Poles are already in the Empire, which is called the European Union. The Poles know that not everything in this empire is in order, but neither America, nor even Russia will ever give such money as Brussels. Those countries that could not enter this European empire regret today for this very reason.

            You are full of contradictions. If it is so good in the EU, then why is Poland raving about the Three Seas and demanding from Germany to compensate for "losses" in the amount of 850 billion. Somehow, your idyll does not stick together.
        2. Semen1972
          Semen1972 31 October 2018 16: 51
          -4
          Quote: Mikhail3
          Well, it’s not Poland who doesn’t want us, but the Great Poland rulers

          Do not say nonsense !!! The government is the mouthpiece of the people, otherwise they will not be chosen .. it's not with us.
  3. Gerklim
    Gerklim 29 October 2018 12: 36
    0
    The Poles want to lick their hoya from across the ocean all the time, that's all.
  4. Conductor
    Conductor 29 October 2018 12: 39
    0
    These applicants themselves do not pay for gas? Pays a budget? Then yes, it’s possible for LNG, but for Pan Janek, how to get paid out of pocket.
  5. rocket757
    rocket757 29 October 2018 12: 40
    0
    Well, yes, others, almost normal geyropeytsev care some other, including they just want to live, preferably normal.
    And to everyone who has not been given a hitch for a long time, there’s a big butch, fermentation in their heads .... there is only one radical method of this process .....
  6. bessmertniy
    bessmertniy 29 October 2018 12: 58
    0
    Russian gas is now cheap for Poland, but it will lead badly - just in time for the revision of the contract, the price will rise. No need to put a stick in the wheels of Nord Stream! negative
    1. white.eagle
      white.eagle 29 October 2018 17: 09
      -3
      Russian gas suddenly became cheap because the Poles built a gas terminal and started buying gas from America. The Russians were frightened and reduced the price of gas. The construction of the LNG terminal has brought the expected benefits, even if it operates at minimal potential. And this is a way to do business with Russians. Instead of having fruitless conversations, they should show that we can do everything without them.
  7. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 29 October 2018 13: 14
    +1
    Greater Poland dreams from mozh to mozh can bring psheks to the point that they can lose part of their territories or go extinct without the Old World
    1. white.eagle
      white.eagle 29 October 2018 17: 13
      -1
      Today, Russia cannot afford to fight the Poles. demography does not allow, and Ukrainian cannon fodder is not in the hands of Moscow.
  8. Ros 56
    Ros 56 29 October 2018 13: 27
    +1
    I wouldn’t sell gas to Poles. Absolutely, let LNG buy from stripes at bargain prices. And in general, no economic relations. These ungrateful pigs, demolishing monuments to our soldiers, just need to spit in the face and forget about their existence.
    1. white.eagle
      white.eagle 29 October 2018 17: 17
      -1
      For Putin’s friends, money is important because they can buy houses in London and yachts in Marseille. Without this money, Putin would have had a problem with the loyalty of the oligarchs.
  9. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 29 October 2018 15: 02
    +1

    Warsaw’s political ambitions, dreaming of becoming an important regional center on the trade route between East and West,
    The path to the realization of this dream has been chosen very much in Polish - to become the center on the path, cutting off one of the largest suppliers of goods from this path! Opening doors by clogging them with boards.
    No geopolitical plans of the Poles have ever been implemented, because the Poles are not only not capable of implementing them, but simply cannot come up with something working. The Greater Poland head was not created for thinking! Funny guys, if you don’t let them into your house with weapons.
    1. white.eagle
      white.eagle 29 October 2018 17: 23
      -4
      In ten years, China will gain a dominant influence in Russia. Then Russian gas will be exported only to China. The Chinese are not stupid and will not sell gas to competitors in Europe. Slowly even the Germans see this threat, and they plan to build a gas terminal to import gas from America. And then Poland will become an intermediary in the gas trade from America to Central and Eastern Europe.
      1. Consultant
        Consultant 29 October 2018 17: 36
        -1
        Quote: white.eagle
        And then Poland will become ...

        IMHO "will"she is not earlier than the whistle on the mountain with cancer. Also - (in)will.
      2. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 29 October 2018 18: 39
        +3
        Let's say you're right. Let's say ... And why on earth should the Chinese allow someone there to "become" on their way outright inadequate? Who needs a mediator who climbs to steer the affairs of states immeasurably larger and stronger than himself? All the power to the dyed clowns? And the Chinese will bring this power to Poland in the teeth, like a dog to a diarrhea?
        What was Schweik treated for from the desire to fight for the emperor sovereign to tear the body apart? To many, wrapping a wet sheet and an enema is shown now ...
        1. Consultant
          Consultant 29 October 2018 23: 34
          -2
          Quote: Mikhail3
          To many, wrapping a wet sheet and an enema is shown now ...

          About the enema:


          Here is such, IMHO, it will just come in handy laughing
  10. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 29 October 2018 15: 23
    +2
    Nuuu, Polish planners, so-so .... in 1937-39 they planned, they planned - they whispered with shaving, with the Germans, with the Russians, with the French, annexing, putting their hands on .... finally they crushed them in a week. Now Poland behaves as a partner of the Washingtonians, and not as an EU country. On the other hand, the Visegrad Four has a very positive role in the offensive against the neoliberal elites of the EU. So not everything is black and white - stock up on popcorn and watch a movie.
    1. white.eagle
      white.eagle 29 October 2018 17: 37
      -2
      The Russians, too, in 1939 planned with the Germans, annexed, took their hands ... in the end, they received the bill of 30 million killed, 10 million women raped by the Germans, plus a huge number of orphans. Not to mention the burnt cities and villages, almost to Moscow and Leningrad. Today, Russians are also looking for an ally in Germany against Central-Eastern Europe. So we stock up on popcorn and watch the Germans deceive the Russians again.
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 29 October 2018 18: 50
        +1
        The Germans and I went to fight with each other. On the way, you always have to plunge into something ... unpleasant. Not delaying, but disgusting. It would be necessary to get together with the Germans and decide whether to clear the way of it here ... nobody needs it, but it stinks very much. Maybe we will decide to wipe everything there dry. The opinion of this locality itself does not interest us at all, because they are nobody, and there is no way to call them anywhere.
      2. boriz
        boriz 31 October 2018 00: 28
        0
        Not the Germans will deceive the Russians, but the arrogant Saxons will deceive the Germans. So closer to the truth. I hope that the Germans wiser over the past 100 years.
    2. icant007
      icant007 29 October 2018 21: 51
      0
      About a week. The distance from Frankfurt an der Oder (border with Germany) to Warsaw is 440 km, from Brest to Minsk - 330 km. Minsk was taken on the 7th day of the war. The Germans approached Warsaw on the 9th day. And this I give the distance from the border with Germany for today. In 1939, the border went east, that is, the distance to Warsaw was even less. The Poles, in fact, are by many estimates good fighters. In this case, it is precisely the psychological factor that is meant.
      Poland didn’t have to twist its nose in 1939 and go to an alliance with the USSR, but alas .... Now we need to learn to be friends with Poland, despite their ambition. Well, for the monuments to beat on the nose.
      1. Semen1972
        Semen1972 31 October 2018 16: 52
        -1
        Quote: icant007
        Well, for the monuments to beat on the nose.

        Gauges !!!
  11. boriz
    boriz 31 October 2018 00: 24
    +1
    "... he supports the security of Germany and the security of the German-Russian alliance."
    This, of course, is a terrible mistake. It is necessary to maintain the interests of arrogant Saxons. Then Poland will definitely go the beaten path to the next disappearance from the map.
  12. aybolyt678
    aybolyt678 3 November 2018 17: 00
    0
    again, an increase in the sale of resources is presented as a victory. When selling resources, the buyer wins. Our grandchildren will buy oil from the Saudis.