Military Review

Is revival of neo-caliph jihadists coming? 1 part

A brief overview of the current situation in Syria and Iraq

Despite the rather optimistic reports of both representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the American generals from the Pentagon, a number of existing tendencies make it possible to make a rather serious prediction. First of all, it should be noted that successful military operations of both coalitions (led by Russia and the United States) in Syria and Iraq did not eliminate the global threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria group (hereinafter IG, prohibited in the Russian Federation). ).

Officially, it is reported that the same United States completed an active phase of large-scale hostilities in Iraq in April 2018, after the end of the sweep from the jihadists of Anbar province. From that moment on, Washington declared that it was changing its strategy of participating in the fight against IS on the territory of Iraq and Syria, almost completely placing the brunt of the fight against these ultraradical caliphists on the shoulders of the Iraqi armed forces and the Kurdish self-defense units.

However, it takes only six months, and it turns out that the mission to finish off the “igilovtsevs” entrusted to the local security forces turned out to be completely beyond American creatures. As a result, according to the American intelligence, the radical caliphists again managed to restore their numbers to the level of 25-30 of thousands of militants dispersed in certain regions of Iraq and Syria. Moreover, “IG” even now again represents a greater threat than the Iraqi Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation) at the peak of its power in 2006-2008.

Is revival of neo-caliph jihadists coming? 1 part

Militants "IG" before the execution of captured hostages

Apparently, in the current period, IG is actively restoring the number of its ranks (heavily thinned out in recent months) and gradually begins small attempts at local operations. Moreover, according to some experts, supporters of the neo-caliphate have now changed their strategy and are conducting a much more dangerous campaign to restore the strengthened areas of long-term support, actively gather financial resources, and also restore the almost destroyed command-coordination network of their cells in Iraq and Syria.

In fact, it seems that in some, not yet controlled "IG" and pacified territories, a series of military insurrections may occur in the coming months, as a result of which the "local security forces" formed from representatives of various radical groups may go over to the side of neo-Caliphists, morally not very stable government units, deprived of assistance from the forces of Russia and the United States, will simply be ousted to areas with sustained support from the population.

Ways to restore combat power "IS on the territory of Syria and Iraq

As already noted, a number of facts testify to the feverish attempts of ultra-radical Caliphists to find new sources of income and to restore command control over the scattered enclaves remaining under their authority.

According to some estimates, the leaders of the Islamic State managed to withdraw about 400 million dollars from the territory of Iraq and Syria and substantially reinvest them in legal business options or invest in real estate, mainly in Central Asia.

This estimate does not include an exactly unknown and therefore difficult to calculate large amount of money received by Caliphists from such types of criminal activity as extortion, smuggling, robbery, slave trade, etc.

Let us demonstrate this with a few facts. For example, even the Syrian Islamist group "Hayat at-Tahrir ash-Sham" (banned in the Russian Federation) accused "igilovtsev", located in the northern regions of Syria, in the capture of many hostages not only from among the Kurds, the Alawites , christians, etc. ethnic and religious minorities, but also from among the “completely orthodox Sunnis,” the release of each of which cost tens of thousands of dollars.

The map of the zones of activity of "IG" in Syria and Iraq as of the beginning of October 2018

Also during 2018, the international coalition forces led by the United States, according to their statements, carried out repeated interceptions of batches of drugs belonging to IG. It was planned to sell the parties in the liberated from the Caliphate regions of Syria and Iraq, as well as export them to neighboring states.

In addition, there are facts of revealing a multitude of firms whose owners, who were not active jihadists themselves, were associated with IG or even opened their own firms and received working capital directly from neo-caliphists. Among those types of businesses you can point to car repair shops, car dealerships (mostly used ones), electrical goods and home appliances stores (especially used ones), pharmacies, chemical fertilizer firms and underground currency exchanges.

There is even evidence that in the past few months, small groups of militants from among the supporters of the neo-caliphate carried out a number of very daring raids on medical centers, as a result of which a significant number of medicines and narcotic drugs were stolen (mainly in the areas controlled by Kurdish units ). Stolen medicines can be used by jihadists both for sale in order to receive funds and to treat their own fighters in upcoming operations.

Speaking about the possible restoration of the “IG”, one cannot but say about their attempts to regain control over the remnants of the separate divisions of the “caliphate army” and to increase their influence on the population of the still controlled areas. The successes, on the one hand, of the coalition headed by Russia, and on the other hand, of the coalition led by the United States, resulted in the remnants of a rather significant number of units of ultraradical neo-caliphists ceasing their open armed struggle and moving to an underground position, as if returning to peaceful life.

However, one should not think that as a result of this, only approximately 10-12 thousands of militants remain under the control of the central leadership of the IG. It is known that everywhere in the territories of Iraq and Syria, “igilovtsy” strengthen internal interaction, and the supreme leader of this terrorist association, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, released another 22 on August 2018, an audio call for his followers to more actively unite and rally the ranks, strengthening internal interaction and coordination between individual enclaves.

In addition, it is known that since March-April of the current year, the neo-caliph leaders changed their strategy, directing the attention of their “field commanders” to forming “sleeping” IG cells in those territories from which jihadists were to retreat under the onslaught of the Western and Western anti-terrorist forces Eastern coalition.

We illustrate this thesis with the following facts. So, even 20 July 2018, the leadership of "IG" announced the formation of two new "wilayets" - one each in Iraq and Syria, which, according to some experts, are operational-level headquarters, responsible for both local combat operations and management and bureaucratic functions.

Islamists from the "IG" lead a religious sermon of their views.

Let us clarify that the Islamist quasi-state still retains approximately equal forces in each of the countries under consideration: according to the Pentagon, at the end of August - beginning of September 2018, approximately 12-14 thousand IG militants are operating in Syria, and approximately Iraqi 15- 17 thousands of militants from among the supporters of this organization.

The propaganda and recruiting campaigns conducted by ultraradical caliphists have quite clear features of having a single information center that coordinates the efforts of individual extremist units in this area.

It is worth noting that, despite attempts by the forces of both coalitions operating in Syria and Iraq, to ​​identify and neutralize the command coordinating centers of the igilovtsev until these efforts yielded tangible results, although they clearly slowed down the restoration of the single organizational structure of this terrorist group.

In addition, it is necessary to note the extremely wide network of international cooperation "IG" ("DAISH") with its branches and simply joined "branches" throughout the world. So, only active combat operations are carried out by their supporters in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Somalia, Egypt and the Philippines, not to mention the factor of the presence of small “sleeping” terrorist cells scattered over an even larger number of states.

(The continuation of the analysis of the possibilities of the revival of "IG" in the near future, read in the second part.)

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  1. Pessimist22
    Pessimist22 27 October 2018 06: 00
    Is it possible to destroy the religious movement that is becoming popular among Muslims and fueled by many countries?
    1. Machito
      Machito 27 October 2018 10: 25
      The United States continues to supply arms and train militant jihajists. In addition, they do not block financial transactions of the IG. The Russian Federation will not allow a counteroffensive in Syria, and in the US-controlled territory, the situation may change. ISIS exists only at the expense of supporting the American coalition.
    2. Shelest2000
      Shelest2000 27 October 2018 11: 02
      What does the religious trend have to do with it? It is just a way of creating, under the leadership of the United States, "controlled chaos" (as they believe) in a given region and to control it (divide and rule). The supply of weapons by the United States to outright terrorists and militants, their preparation, the supply of intelligence and open cover by its troops only confirms that without the United States, nothing would have happened there.
  2. Conductor
    Conductor 27 October 2018 06: 38
    You can put it down, control the money for this movement.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 27 October 2018 07: 13
    While the rich countries of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia and others) and the United States and allies continue to finance, arm, organize information support and finally brazenly save the leaders, this creation cannot be destroyed.
    1. Conductor
      Conductor 27 October 2018 07: 57
      That's for sure, fed the Arabs on their heads.
  4. Strashila
    Strashila 27 October 2018 07: 57
    After all, they didn’t appear from outside where they were, they were calmly prepared, then they were sent to work out the money invested, transferring them to self-sufficiency with payment for arms supplies and training by instructors with an allowance for coordination of actions. So now they haven’t gone anywhere, rest and heal, train new minions, analyze past operations, and recruit. This will continue indefinitely while they are supported and supplied.
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 27 October 2018 08: 49
    ... or do you not understand that cannons cannot fight with ideas? ... And the barmaley are ideological terrorists ... Different people are coming to them ... the USA sowed "seeds of democracy" in Iraq, and what has sprung up is some kind of weed ... At the same time, Iraq, in fact, lost its independence, many socio-economic problems arose ... And the barmaley proposed an idea ... Moreover, the United States liked this idea ... it makes it possible to ensure a permanent military presence in the Middle East ... And what would this idea has not died out, the United States with one hand, such as smash the barmaley, and with the other they feed ...
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 29 October 2018 04: 54
      Quote: parusnik

      ... or don’t you understand that guns cannot fight ideas?

      Throw you this demagoguery. Any idea needs to be fed. In the Sahara desert, no matter how you want, nothing grows. And in the Amazon Delta, any branch stuck in the ground begins to cluster. The whole idea of ​​the USA is
      The methods for separation are the simplest: you live poorly, because next to you everything is taken from you ...
  6. Ros 56
    Ros 56 27 October 2018 10: 04
    It is sad to admit it, all the same people, but there is only one way of struggle, as in agriculture, weeding and destruction of weeds. Including those who support and supply them. And do not impose on them the democracy of the Europeans and the Stripes, while there is no soil for it yet. For a thousand years the East lived by its own rules, they have their own mentality and cannot be redone for 30-50-70 years. And the striped gopniks with the mentality of a cowboy, still wretched with their wits, did not grow up to the understanding that people can have differences not only in material but also in spiritual terms. Therefore, they try to reduce everything to material primitivism and people with limited horizons are willing to peck at it, and those who are smarter and more educated become their leaders. Yes, take not even Arabs, whose education is not so developed, but Ukraine, where the population is much more educated, the result is the same.
  7. marshes
    marshes 27 October 2018 15: 27
    We must see the root.
    Neo jihadists are Salafis, a communist-socialist Islamic international, you listen to their ideas. So it is useless to fight, although in one year they just started to solve social problems in their countries. But forgetting about the "soul". That's another dirty trick. not illiterate citizens, the core of it is the learning youth, student, and liberal professors.
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 29 October 2018 04: 57
      Quote: marshes
      We must see the root.

      It is necessary to chop under the root so that nothing grows. Simple complex weeding in three bows ... Split into molecules. There, nature itself will figure out whether it needs this substance.
  8. dolfi1
    dolfi1 27 October 2018 21: 41
    Someone seriously hoped to win a quick victory in the BV? More over the ideology involved in religion, money, drugs, etc. Also with sponsors like Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.? Also, everyone else feeds each of their barmaley. Here such grandmothers and interests are spinning, that this is for a long time. The mess has just begun, do not have illusions.
  9. NordUral
    NordUral 27 October 2018 23: 03
    The Anglo-Saxon technique of controlled chaos has not disappeared. In words, the struggle with the igil, in fact, feeding, training and armament, up to the coordination of their performances.
  10. EvilLion
    EvilLion 31 October 2018 16: 39
    "The revival of the 3rd Reich is inevitable!"
    April 1945.
  11. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 1 November 2018 13: 34
    The fight against ISIS has just begun and no one knows when it will end. Any terrorist movement dies when there is no financial and material support.