Military Review

With Syria, almost finished. Are we going to Libya?

80
Recently, there has been more and more talk that Russia is allegedly preparing to intervene in the civil war in Libya, a country ravaged by NATO bombardments, a country with civil strife. Moreover, information about the upcoming "invasion of Moscow" is quite actively promoted by some Western publications belonging to the media empire of Rupert Murdoch, in particular, The Sun and The Times. Do not lag behind them, and some Russian publications, talking about it as a practically resolved issue.




I must say that there are still some reasonable grounds for such throws: against the backdrop of positive Syrian experience, the idea of ​​Moscow interfering in another civil war no longer seems so incredible. In addition, before the start of the Syrian operation of our armed forces, the situation was similar - the grouping of our airborne forces and support equipment was growing steadily over the course of several months, any information about a possible intervention was refuted, and they began to say something intelligible on this subject only after being transferred to Khmeimim our aviationwhen the Americans published the corresponding satellite images.

At the moment there are some indirect indications that our military presence in Libya can change qualitatively: this is the presence of our PMCs there, which is not particularly hidden, and the frequent contacts of representatives of certain Libyan groups with our officials. In Moscow, for example, there was one of the main political (and military, more importantly) players of modern Libya, Khalifa Hoftar, as well as his assistants and representatives. The Kremlin does not refuse to communicate and representatives of other groups, in particular, the internationally recognized Libyan government, but there is one nuance: Haftar, according to the latest data, controls 90% of the territory of Libya. Another detail - the current government of Libya, meeting in Tripoli, created with the active participation of the United States and its European allies. It is not something that is radically anti-Russian, but not exactly pro-Russian.

The current situation in Libya is simple and complex at the same time. As mentioned above, the Caliph-controlled Haftar Libyan National Army (LNA) controls up to 90 percent of the country's territory. But the remaining 10% falls, just, on the capital Tripoli and some areas adjacent to it, as well as in the border with Tunisia. The LNA, which has, among other things, its own air forces, theoretically could probably take Tripoli, especially since the government there is not at all homogeneous and is only a political superstructure of the forced unification of about five armed groups that are not particularly friendly with each other.

With Syria, almost finished. Are we going to Libya?
The approximate scheme of control of the territory by various groups in Libya. The territory controlled by LNA is marked in red.


But it is necessary to understand how the general himself (according to other sources is already a marshal) Haftar, understands that an armed assault on the capital without adequate political and military cover will surely be served by the Western media as a humanitarian catastrophe. With all the ensuing consequences, including, of course, the humanitarian bombardment of NATO positions by NATO aircraft. Therefore, even in spite of the request for consolidation existing in Libyan society and the cessation of civil strife, such a scenario seems unlikely in modern conditions.

Of course, things can change if some political and military heavyweight intervenes. For example, Russia. And many in Libya, especially in the midst of Khalifa Haftar, are greatly encouraged by the experience of a Syrian settlement under the auspices of Moscow. But is it so easy and beneficial for Moscow itself? Does it make sense to her from such a development of events, or is it necessary to delay this?

It is not at all so easy to answer this question, although on the net you can already find many commentators who consider our political and financial gains from interfering in intra-Libyan affairs. Nevertheless, let us try to analyze the current situation from this angle: will it be useful for Russia or not?

First of all, let us draw attention to the main difference between the situation in Libya and what we have in Syria: the legitimacy of our possible presence. The Assad government in Syria is absolutely legitimate, it is internationally recognized, including the UN, the head of state, and the Russian Armed Forces, acting at the official invitation of the legitimate government, can not doubt the solid legal basis of its presence in this country. The Kremlin’s political positions in the international arena are strong enough. It is not surprising that the United States and its allies did not even try to impose sanctions on the very fact of Russia's armed intervention in Syrian affairs - for this it was necessary to invent and implement provocations with allegedly using chemical weapons.

In Libya, everything is exactly the opposite: we will get sanctions as soon as our military contingent in this country is noticed in any intervention in the internal conflict. It is clear that the same circle of specially trusted friends of Washington will support them, and no more, but still it must be borne in mind.

The argument of some of our “experts” regarding control of the migration flow to Europe and the allegedly increasing Russian influence on the position of European countries does not stand up to criticism. Yes, Libya is indeed the largest migration hub in North Africa. But we will rather receive accusations also of supporting (or even provoking) the wave of migration to the EU, which will probably not have the best effect on our already difficult relationship with European “partners.” Therefore, it is more logical to say that in such a case Russia will need forced restoring of order and the actual solution of the migration issue. And this is likely to require some costs or the introduction of rather draconian measures on the coast.

Talking about the fact that we can get huge profits from the Libyan oil and gas sector also looks at least debatable. Yes, there is quite a lot of oil and gas there, Libya is the leader in this indicator from all the countries of North Africa. But it is also necessary to understand that by the present moment the positions of Western TNCs are already very strong there, which hastened to “stake out a place” at the largest fields. It is not at all difficult to force them out of there. But Russian companies are unlikely to want to go to the vacant seats, while all disputes of this kind are resolved in the courts of London or Stockholm. And as an example of the dispute between Gazprom and the Ukrainian Naftogaz, we all probably understand why ...

The ability to somehow influence the oil and gas markets cannot, of course, be written off. But given the fact that Moscow, as a fire, is afraid to use the “pipeline factor” in relations with the EU, it would be rather naive to think that it would risk shutting off the Libyan gas pipeline to Italy, for example. The share of Libya in the world oil market is about 2% - this, of course, is tangible, but in any crisis situation it is easily replaced by other OPEC members.

Therefore, let us agree that the operation in Libya does not promise Russia any quick payback. If our presence in Syria is a potential threat to the Persian Gulf monarchies who control the world's main reservoir of oil, and it has a direct impact on the willingness of the Saudis and their “smaller brothers” to cooperate with Russia in shaping a fair oil price, then in the case of Libya influence on pricing can be excluded: the scale is not the same and the location is not so good. Rather, the normalization of the situation in the country will lead to an increase in oil production, which will lead to an increase in supply and a slight decrease in world oil prices.

Separately, it should be noted military-strategic importance of Libya. Probably, it can be considered almost ideal - from this country you can control the entire Mediterranean basin, South Europe and North Africa, and also have direct access to the region of Central Africa, rich in various resources and long bored without good Russian supervision.

Actually, the question facing Russia can be formulated in the following way: is Moscow ready to accept tangible costs and political costs for the sake of obvious geopolitical and economic benefits in some perspective, or is it more important for it to “not tease the geese” and save? And the question is not simple, because in both cases quite a lot is at stake.

I would not venture to predict exactly what will be decided in the Kremlin. However, the recent visit of Egyptian President Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi to Russia and his talks with Putin could largely be devoted to the situation in Libya. Egypt is also an open sympathizer of General Khalifa Haftar, and combining the efforts of our countries in this matter can be an additional argument in favor of the start of the Russian (or Russian-Egyptian) operation in the former Libyan Jamahiriya.
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  1. Bykov.
    Bykov. 22 October 2018 12: 19
    +3
    These are all the wet dreams of the EUsevts. They think that by sacrificing our lives and means, we will solve their problems, which they actually created for themselves. Let them look for fools elsewhere.
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir 22 October 2018 13: 02
      +18
      These are all the wet dreams of the EU.
      In fact, these are the dreams of the leaders of Rosneft and Gazprom.
      1. KBaHT_BpeMeHu
        KBaHT_BpeMeHu 22 October 2018 13: 23
        +10
        And their dreams come true as they say.
        1. Warrior2015
          Warrior2015 25 October 2018 13: 39
          +2
          Quote: KBaHT_BpeMeHu
          And their dreams come true as they say.

          Unfortunately, yes, their dreams come true, unlike most ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation.
      2. Baloo
        Baloo 22 October 2018 20: 15
        0
        Quote: Gardamir
        These are all the wet dreams of the EU.
        In fact, these are the dreams of the leaders of Rosneft and Gazprom.

        Maybe. In Libya, the best oil for the production of aviation kerosene and the largest reserves of fresh water in the region. But it will be more difficult there than in Syria. We don’t need to get in there. It is better to squeeze the barmalei in Syria and smoke the Turks with the Amerzians and other occupiers
      3. Compasure
        Compasure 23 October 2018 23: 07
        0
        In fact, these are the dreams of the leaders of Rosneft and Gazprom.

        This is complete stupidity, Rosneft, in particular, can not cope with the piece that they grabbed in Russia by buying out TNCs. Plus a bunch of international loans that need to be serviced and rolled over. Russian oil companies in Crimea are afraid to work, and even more so in Libya. Because such sanctions will cover, especially from the EU, that will not seem enough!
    2. Machito
      Machito 22 October 2018 15: 15
      +4
      We hardly need to get into Libya without putting a victory point in Syria. This will lead to a dispersal of forces and means, which are much smaller than those of the USSR. On the other hand, after the unconditionally successful Syrian operation (the unbundling of the Syrian Gordian knot with many interested participating countries turned out to be only for the Russian Federation), the authority of the Russian Federation in the geostrategic arena certainly increased by a large amount. Contacts with Libyan partners (government and opposition) are undoubtedly useful, and make our Western partners nervous. Libya itself is of great interest to Russia: geopolitical, economic and military. A military base in the once friendly Libya will allow the Russian Federation to control the entire Mediterranean, and will seriously strengthen our position in Cold War 2.0. So, given the necessary resources and resources of Russia, it is undoubtedly worthwhile to do stabilization of Libya.
      1. gunnerminer
        gunnerminer 22 October 2018 19: 41
        0
        Lenin correctly said: "Trying to solve particular questions, not having solved common ones before, we will come across these general questions again and again."
    3. UMA-UMA
      UMA-UMA 22 October 2018 16: 54
      +4
      Ahah. That is what they think, and that is how we act. Only in us they still spit in every possible way. We’ll either demolish the column, insolently, from 130 (we have this in the Syrian Air Force), then they will shoot down the aircraft, and in response we express our concern.
    4. gunnerminer
      gunnerminer 22 October 2018 19: 45
      0
      They already fooled you with the help of your partner Erdogan Pasha. For a free station in Wakuya, for gas to Turkey with a rebate of more than 10%. You have already allocated $ 300 million for Syrian agriculture. Another billion-dollar cost of housing restoration is ahead of you. Plus arganization, destroying state weapons programs.
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 22 October 2018 12: 26
    +7
    The ambush is big, but the buns can also be obtained not small .... only we would take care of our house, and so easy for our people to breathe easier!
    I boil for different things, but only when we have everything in order.
    1. KBaHT_BpeMeHu
      KBaHT_BpeMeHu 22 October 2018 13: 24
      +10
      but buns can be obtained not small
      rather a big slap in the face.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 22 October 2018 14: 08
        +3
        Quote: KBaHT_BpeMeHu
        rather a big slap in the face.

        It may be, it can be, but who did it stop if the buns are big and juicy, as it were!
        1. gunnerminer
          gunnerminer 22 October 2018 19: 47
          -1
          You are not lying in the sands of Cyrenaica with AK.
          1. Narak-zempo
            Narak-zempo 23 October 2018 13: 57
            -1
            Quote: gunnerminer
            You are not lying in the sands of Cyrenaica with AK

            As they say, to each his own.
            The experience of PMCs in Syria has shown that, firstly, there will always be people who want to crawl with a Kalash under fire for the sake of earning money. And secondly, no problems with the committees of soldiers' mothers, no obligations on social security for cripples. And the more "passionary" elements lie there in the sand, the more calmly Russia will survive possible social upheavals. We don't need a new revolution and civil war.
    2. gunnerminer
      gunnerminer 22 October 2018 19: 46
      +3
      Pay attention to the condition of the small military transport aircraft, the small old auxiliary fleet, and the complete lack of the ability to charter merchant ships with foreign shipowners. The Persian Cub will not send infantry to Libya, nor will hezbollons.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 23 October 2018 10: 42
        -1
        Quote: gunnerminer
        Pay attention to the condition is not numerous

        Until we have HOME real order, incl. in industrial. economic sphere, we will be weaker outside than we should and would like!
        Those. Wishlist, the real state of affairs can not be replaced!
    3. Warrior2015
      Warrior2015 25 October 2018 13: 42
      0
      Quote: rocket757
      The ambush is big, but you can get goodies as well.

      To whom? again to oil oligarchs? For the Russian army, yes, a good training ground for exercises, a great battle ground for training with minimal casualties, and the common population of the Russian Federation what is from Syria? The only serious plus is that here they almost cleared out the IG * and disposed of many jihadists, who would then appear at our place not only in the Caucasus, but also in other regions of Russia.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 25 October 2018 14: 00
        +1
        Quote: Warrior2015
        To whom? petroleum oligarchs again?

        You yourself answered your question!
        What naf test site ??? Let them study at home, practice! Well, if at all the land, there is a threat to us, then at distant frontiers, how hot it is! It’s also to fulfill the union obligations, but again to conclude unions based on their interests, and not for something incomprehensible there.
        All this, of course, is right, good, but real, oligarchic proteges rule our country, we didn’t think up a schaub there, so expecting that everything will be true, in terms of garlic, is a big illusion! Somehow it turns out, these are our realities!
  3. Examenatornick
    Examenatornick 22 October 2018 12: 29
    +4
    Come back home guys already probably enough. I do not want to read about losses more.
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir 22 October 2018 13: 05
      +7
      I do not want to read about losses anymore.
      only business. But you may think that this is for the salvation of the long-suffering people of Libya.
      1. Examenatornick
        Examenatornick 22 October 2018 15: 51
        +5
        I know that business. Critical thinking is not as rare a "gift" as you think. wink
  4. steelmaker
    steelmaker 22 October 2018 12: 33
    +6
    Know everything in comparison, compare yourself with others. If earlier I thought it right that Russia intervened in the conflict in Syria, now? The longer we are in Syria, the worse it is for ordinary people in Russia. And now why do I need this Syria? Salaries, pensions, housing and public utilities, medicine, education, roads, etc., and all this at the expense of people. And the longer we are in Syria, the more taxes on people hang! In this Syria in valili, and from his people do not know what to think of, to tear off more. And now Libya? No thanks, who would help me.
    1. Bigbraza
      22 October 2018 13: 24
      +6
      Quote: steel maker
      Know everything in comparison, compare yourself with others. If earlier I thought it right that Russia intervened in the conflict in Syria, now? The longer we are in Syria, the worse it is for ordinary people in Russia. And now why do I need this Syria? Salaries, pensions, housing and public utilities, medicine, education, roads, etc., and all this at the expense of people. And the longer we are in Syria, the more taxes on people hang! In this Syria in valili, and from his people do not know what to think of, to tear off more. And now Libya? No thanks, who would help me.

      The operation in Syria immediately affected world oil prices, doubling them. It is very beneficial to Russia. Probably, you can already talk about a couple of hundred billion dollars in net profit. Without it, and with pensions, and with utilities would be worse.
      1. Alone
        Alone 22 October 2018 13: 39
        +8
        Quote: BigBraza
        The operation in Syria immediately affected world oil prices, doubling them.

        Because of this, have our fuel jumped by at least 10% at once, as well as another round of inflation?
        1. Chertt
          Chertt 22 October 2018 15: 10
          +2
          Quote: Alone
          Because of this, have our fuel jumped by at least 10% at once, as well as another round of inflation?

          This is not because of the war in Syria. Here you can agree with the author
          It is very beneficial to Russia. Probably, we can already talk about a couple of hundred billion dollars in net profit. Without it, both with pensions and with housing and communal services would be worse.

          Life in Russia is not easy, because capitalism and the oligarchy
          1. Alone
            Alone 22 October 2018 20: 45
            -1
            Quote: Chertt
            It is not because of the war in Syria

            Who can argue? Maybe this is because of the comprador relations of the elites to the state (I am silent about the usual "electorate") And the operation in Syria is just another reason for them?
      2. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn 22 October 2018 16: 55
        +1
        Quote: BigBraza
        The operation in Syria immediately affected world oil prices, doubling them.
        And then the war in Syria ?! Syria did not export oil particularly. It is rather the war in Libya that raised them in due time.
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 22 October 2018 17: 45
          +6
          Quote: Stirbjorn
          Quote: BigBraza
          The operation in Syria immediately affected world oil prices, doubling them.
          And then the war in Syria ?! Syria did not export oil particularly. It is rather the war in Libya that raised them in due time.

          I already tried to ask Victor this question under another article. So where did he get the idea that Syria could somehow influence world oil prices? But, he did not answer, although he remains true to his idea. For clarity, I will give a tablet

          Where is Syria interesting?
      3. UMA-UMA
        UMA-UMA 22 October 2018 17: 02
        -1
        Panoktikum ... just expert Panoktikum. Dear, have you heard anything about the budget rule? I will tell you: our revenues go to the budget for oil, calculated from the price of 40 dollars. All that goes above the reserve fund, that is, in debt European and American paper in the way 1%. Teach materiel.
        1. Bigbraza
          22 October 2018 17: 13
          +2
          Quote: UMA-UMA
          Panoktikum ... just expert Panoktikum. Dear, have you heard anything about the budget rule? I will tell you: our revenues go to the budget for oil, calculated from the price of 40 dollars. All that goes above the reserve fund, that is, in debt European and American paper in the way 1%. Teach materiel.

          Your opinion immediately clarified the situation. Only if you had remembered that oil prices tended to decline at that time, and some hotheads predicted 20 dollars per barrel, and less, your brilliant analysis would become even lighter. By the way, the stabilization fund at that time was also actively spent. wait a second - it seems predicted that it will end just in 2018?
          Believe me, critics' panopticon delivers no less.
      4. gunnerminer
        gunnerminer 22 October 2018 19: 50
        -2
        - Probably, we can already talk about a couple of hundreds of billions -

        Some will go to British offshore companies. The Russian economy lives at $ 40 per barrel. Anything above cannot be mastered on the territory of the Russian Federation, and goes to British offshores. The American treashurizs sold, but they did not get into the Russian economy.
      5. Varangian
        Varangian 23 October 2018 11: 45
        -1
        oil has grown, but the ruble has not strengthened in any way
    2. KBaHT_BpeMeHu
      KBaHT_BpeMeHu 22 October 2018 13: 27
      +2
      The longer we are in Syria, the worse for ordinary people in Russia
      Not ordinary people become richer as the people get poorer, maybe the reason is in them and in the way of distribution of income from how would our common wealth? In addition, the army must fight, it is better not at home.
    3. Dart2027
      Dart2027 22 October 2018 19: 39
      0
      Quote: steel maker
      The longer we are in Syria, the worse for ordinary people in Russia.
      Yes, yes, yes ... Of course, there are documents in which all this is written?
    4. gunnerminer
      gunnerminer 22 October 2018 19: 48
      +1
      The consequences of arganization. The second time on a rake.
    5. fa2998
      fa2998 23 October 2018 09: 06
      +1
      Quote: BigBraza
      The operation in Syria immediately affected world oil prices, doubling them. It is very beneficial to Russia. Probably, you can already talk about a couple of hundred billion dollars in net profit. Without it, and with pensions, and with utilities would be worse.

      Yes, I do not argue. But the profit was taken by a narrow circle of people. They no longer fit on the TV. Look in the Forbes list - how much have our oil oligarchs increased their capital. And the war is being fought on budget money (how much does one "Caliber" cost?) gasoline prices
  5. maw
    maw 22 October 2018 12: 36
    +2
    And just as our oil and gas managers bring info up, it will.
  6. parusnik
    parusnik 22 October 2018 12: 37
    +5
    Haftar, by itself is not reliable ... "Hatit" to provide its "nishtyaks" at the expense of Russia ... There is no certainty that even if Russia introduces its troops into Libya and everything will be all right, Haftar will not "stab him" .. ...
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir 22 October 2018 13: 09
      0
      does not "stab with a knife"
      Well kicks and kicks. Just think of knocking down a couple of Russian helicopters or again bombing hundreds of two of their helicopters. What saddens slaves when it comes to big money big business.
      1. parusnik
        parusnik 22 October 2018 14: 32
        +2
        [b
        ] Just think of knocking down a couple of Russian helicopters, or again bombing hundreds of two of their helicopters.
        [/bapter...No. It’s not here for you. It’ll kick, it’ll kick ... So it’s not enough ....
  7. g1v2
    g1v2 22 October 2018 12: 59
    +2
    Well, that we will sooner or later help Haftar, I wrote back in 15. Just do not think that this will be some kind of military operation. Haftar has enough troops. But the help of intelligence, instructors, supplies of equipment and weapons is quite possible. Plus small operations with ccd.
    The most important thing is that in addition to us, Haftar is neighboring Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and even some Europeans. By the way, the map is too prokhftarovskaya. More real looks something like this.
    1. Bigbraza
      22 October 2018 13: 27
      0
      Quote: g1v2
      Well, that we will sooner or later help Haftar, I wrote back in 15. Just do not think that this will be some kind of military operation. Haftar has enough troops. But the help of intelligence, instructors, supplies of equipment and weapons is quite possible. Plus small operations with ccd.
      The most important thing is that in addition to us, Haftar is neighboring Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and even some Europeans. By the way, the map is too prokhftarovskaya. More real looks something like this.

      Alas, each draws cards for themselves. Thank you, this option also has the right to exist. In any case, the dominance of LNA and Haftar is indisputable.
      1. g1v2
        g1v2 22 October 2018 13: 33
        +2
        That is dominance. Moreover, there are many who stand behind him and help. Just like in Syria, many of the shaded areas are deserts where hell knows who roams. The border from the south is transparent and exists only on paper. Many tribes roam on both sides and simply do not notice the border. Only the nodal NP and oil production facilities are clearly controlled. And then regularly someone tries them on the tooth. hi
  8. NEOZ
    NEOZ 22 October 2018 13: 39
    +2
    we will receive sanctions as soon as our military contingent in this country is noticed in any interference in the internal conflict.

    not an argument, we will get sanctions in any case ... (if you do not consider the proposal for surrender)
    But we are more likely to receive accusations of supporting (or even provoking) a wave of migration to the EU, which will probably not have the best effect on our already difficult relations with European “partners”

    Our relations with the EU are based on the principle of profitable / not profitable ... if the EU is profitable to work with us, they will work ...
    But Russian companies are unlikely to want to go to vacant places,

    to be afraid of foreign courts is to admit defeat and recognition of the lack of sovereignty.
    But taking into account the fact that Moscow is afraid of using the “pipeline factor” as a fire in relations with the EU

    Moscow looks at relations with the EU on the principle of profitable / not profitable ... this is the cornerstone ...
    operation in Libya does not promise Russia any quick payback

    more / less big business always pays off for a long time ...
    ps
    with the question posed by the author, I agree.
    Actually, the question facing Russia can be formulated approximately as follows: is Moscow ready to accept tangible costs and political costs for the sake of obvious geopolitical and economic benefits in some perspective, or is it more important for it now to “not tease the geese” and save?
  9. ggl1
    ggl1 22 October 2018 13: 44
    -5
    The Mediterranean Sea should be controlled by Russia
    this is the best option the rest should wipe and go to the side
  10. Guru
    Guru 22 October 2018 13: 53
    0
    Our something with the Egyptians often began to conduct joint exercises of the Airborne Forces, I support the author of the article, the prospect is certainly not in the near future, but rather in the medium and long-term time scale. In addition, in Egypt, too, evil spirits (read igil) are found. In addition, the Kremlin is flirting with the Central African Republic.
    1. KBaHT_BpeMeHu
      KBaHT_BpeMeHu 22 October 2018 14: 11
      +1
      Our something with the Egyptians often conduct joint exercises of the Airborne Forces
      It is rather a political step, 100-200 paratroopers, even with the support of aviation, it is unlikely that they can fundamentally change anything.
  11. Ros 56
    Ros 56 22 October 2018 14: 07
    +2
    The political interests of a country, with rare exceptions, will never coincide with the immediate interests of a particular person, since they require certain investments in the form of material resources and, sadly, human lives. You can cite anything you want as counterarguments, but this is the truth of life, and only people with a limited, due to poor education, outlook can argue the opposite. The history of our state confirms my words. Probably for beautiful eyes the history gave us a huge territory, on which our "partners" open their mouths. Probably just like that, for nothing, we got great geographical discoveries. And even more so in the current, most complicated geopolitical situation, special efforts are required. On this topic, of course, a huge, with calculations of examples and proofs, article is required, which requires a lot of time to collect material and write the article itself. So think gentlemen, do we need a base in Libya.
    1. Tahtvjd2868
      Tahtvjd2868 22 October 2018 16: 06
      -1
      Can you send your son there? Why would he not defend the interests of Mr. Sechin Igor Ivanovich? Don't put your head down crying "For I. I. Sechin !!!" It is unlikely that the gentlemen will send their children there .. They will tell you bedtime stories about the great geographical discoveries and about eternal friendship with the Libyan people and about the interests of the Motherland !!! Only THEY WON'T GO THERE! And they will send YOUR son!
      1. Bigbraza
        22 October 2018 17: 18
        +1
        Quote: Tahtvjd2868
        Can you send your son there? Why would he not defend the interests of Mr. Sechin Igor Ivanovich? Don't put your head down crying "For I. I. Sechin !!!" It is unlikely that the gentlemen will send their children there .. They will tell you bedtime stories about the great geographical discoveries and about eternal friendship with the Libyan people and about the interests of the Motherland !!! Only THEY WON'T GO THERE! And they will send YOUR son!

        demagogy. Americans for the interests of Wall Street around the world are fighting. but it turns out that somewhere the interests of the country and its business still overlap.
        1. akunin
          akunin 22 October 2018 18: 38
          -1
          Quote: BigBraza
          demagogy. Americans for the interests of Wall Street around the world are fighting. but it turns out that somewhere the interests of the country and its business still overlap.

          everything is right. the war contributes to the development of the economy, but not everyone. Has our economy grown strongly due to the war in Syria? they drove the barmaleis across the desert, and they moved to a permanent residence to another place and the same line of immigrants from Russia would reach for them free bread. Where is the result of the war (should the balance be positive)? Isn’t it better to resolve the conflict in Ukraine?
        2. Tahtvjd2868
          Tahtvjd2868 22 October 2018 23: 44
          0
          Who are fighting? Draftees ?? But Russia is fighting whom ??
      2. Ronald Reagan
        Ronald Reagan 22 October 2018 17: 28
        0
        Yes, this is a thought crime. laughing
      3. g1v2
        g1v2 22 October 2018 20: 51
        +4
        "Soldiers. While you are freezing in the trenches, Stalin and Zhdanov drink vodka in the Kremlin and fuck your women. The political instructor is lying to you. You shouldn't die for the power of the Jewish communists, etc. Throw down your weapons and surrender to the Wehrmacht." Guys, you would at least change the training manual. And then the 21st century is already, and the manuals are the same. Boring. wink
        1. Tahtvjd2868
          Tahtvjd2868 22 October 2018 23: 46
          -1
          Do not replace the concept! The war for the Motherland, when the enemy tramples your fields and kills your near and dear ones and the war for the interests of individual persons, is not the same thing.
      4. Ros 56
        Ros 56 23 October 2018 09: 59
        0
        For your information, Sechin himself ran with a gun, we will not specify where, and many of the current powers that be, also ran with guns in Africa and South America and Southeast Asia. So hide in your shell and scream busy.
        1. Tahtvjd2868
          Tahtvjd2868 23 October 2018 15: 55
          -1
          Tongues to grind watching the bridge? Well, why are you sticking out on the site every day? Come to Libya! Confirm your bazaar business
          1. Ros 56
            Ros 56 24 October 2018 08: 49
            +1
            Wipe the snot before giving advice to others, I'm seventy soon.
          2. Lara Croft
            Lara Croft 27 October 2018 17: 44
            0
            Quote: Tahtvjd2868
            Tongues to grind watching the bridge?

            Dear, how are you talking to the colonel?
  12. Nyrobsky
    Nyrobsky 22 October 2018 14: 11
    +5
    At one time, with the light hand of Dmitry Medvedev, we supported the United Nations resolution of the Americans on delivering "democratic" strikes on Libya and suffered losses in the form of 10-11 billion from unrealized contracts. Only the construction and modernization of the railway in Libya promised us 3 billion in profits. It is clear that we have our own interest in this country, as well as in the United States and England.
    When we got into Syria, the Anglo-Saxons became very nervous and the former British Defense Minister Michael Fallon issued a warning in 2015 in the style of "The West does not want the bear to stick its paws into Libya"to which Minister of Defense S. Shoigu answered
    - Well, if you continue the animal theme ... What do they have on the coat of arms, lion, it seems? There is an old saying: all lions are cats, but not all cats are lions. Let everyone understand his own affairs. And we don’t think that a beast has grown in their zoo that can point to a bear, said the army general
    Given the fact that they were excited, and how Kozhugetovich answered them, we can assume that the Russian Federation can indeed participate in the affairs of Libya. The only question is at what level and by what forces?
  13. Alexey-74
    Alexey-74 22 October 2018 16: 07
    0
    Surrenders Russia is already secretly helping Libya (Havtor), with small arms, possibly PMCs. Most likely, it will not come to a military operation, as in Syria - we will not legally be there. In any case, until we finish the Nord Stream-2 project, otherwise the United States and their UN (pocket) will quickly sue us and cover up this project .... well, then it will be seen, it is possible that aviation will be from Syria support Haftar, but grounds are needed.
  14. akunin
    akunin 22 October 2018 18: 26
    +1
    Haftar, according to recent data, controls 90% of the territory of Libya. Another detail - the current government of Libya, sitting in Tripoli, was created with the active participation of the United States and its European allies. It is not that it is radically anti-Russian, but it cannot be called pro-Russian.
    but the hawtor is straight "United Russia" - an old cunning Arab who will sell everything if the wind changes. There are no internal problems in Russia at all and full of money and you have to subscribe for the next "brothers". Arabs to measure is a grateful and necessary thing, suddenly the flows of migrants to Europe will decrease ? and how not to help the Europeans?
  15. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 22 October 2018 18: 39
    0
    Quote: Alexey-74
    Surrenders Russia is already secretly helping Libya (Havtor), with small arms, possibly PMCs. Most likely, it will not come to a military operation, as in Syria - we will not legally be there. In any case, until we finish the Nord Stream-2 project, otherwise the United States and their UN (pocket) will quickly sue us and cover up this project .... well, then it will be seen, it is possible that aviation will be from Syria support Haftar, but grounds are needed.

    The basis should be the interests of the Russian Federation in the BV and Africa. We need a long-term African policy of the Russian Federation, and it is still slowly, but it is building up because there are problems at home, as well as the neighbors - the Sshakov mongrels - are getting underfoot. So we will be like in that joke - "we will quietly go down and the whole herd will be ours." hi
  16. gorenina91
    gorenina91 22 October 2018 18: 56
    +1
    -What more ... Libya ..? -There is nothing with Syria ... it’s not clear ...
  17. Wolf47525
    Wolf47525 22 October 2018 19: 20
    0
    This is normal. First we merge Gaddafi. Then we collaborate with those who turned Libya into ......... (censorship does not work). Things are good.
    1. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft 27 October 2018 17: 39
      0
      Quote: Wolf47525
      This is normal. First we merge Gaddafi.

      This is normal. First, the Libyan leader sent Vova with the return of Soviet debt, then the same leader began to kiss in a hickey with European leaders, i.e. such is his karma, dog's ...
      If you threw the RF on the "dough", do not be surprised that then it will not protect you from your enemies with files ...
  18. ggl1
    ggl1 22 October 2018 20: 37
    0
    The USA is being squeezed out of the Mediterranean.
    In Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, no striped
    In Syria, almost squeezed out
    Left Libya and Lebanon
  19. dmmyak40
    dmmyak40 22 October 2018 20: 48
    0
    By the way! At the time of writing this message, the Tu-154M MO from Libya (apparently Tobruk or the a / p Labrak) has passed the traverse of Krasnodar to Moscow.
    Through Turkey ... As Meehan says: heh heh heh ...
  20. Sergei75
    Sergei75 22 October 2018 21: 12
    +1
    No, of course you need help, but maybe the population of Russia needs help?
    They took away their pension, introduced new taxes and invent them.
  21. iouris
    iouris 22 October 2018 22: 07
    -1
    How is this "almost finished"? Neither the S-300 nor the S-400 have ever been tested.
  22. M. Michelson
    M. Michelson 23 October 2018 06: 13
    +2
    My opinion: if Iran tries to tidy up Libya (which is unlikely, since Shiites are not enough there), then it can be helped by any means; if not, then Libya will become a trap for us.
  23. ggl1
    ggl1 23 October 2018 13: 23
    -2
    I repeat the Mediterranean Sea should be on the control of Russia
    this is the best option the rest should wipe and go to the side
    The USA is being squeezed out of the Mediterranean.
    In Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, no striped
    In Syria, almost squeezed out
    Left Libya and Lebanon
    1. Warrior2015
      Warrior2015 25 October 2018 13: 51
      +2
      Quote: ggl1
      I repeat the Mediterranean Sea should be on the control of Russia
      this is the best option the rest should wipe and go to the side
      The USA is being squeezed out of the Mediterranean.
      In Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, no striped
      In Syria, almost squeezed out
      Left Libya and Lebanon

      You seldom meet so much concentrated nonsense in one quotation.
      1.Why did you decide that the Mediterranean should be under our control? we are typical, non-maritime tellurian power.
      2.Egypt, Tunisia and partly Algeria and Morocco literally pray to the United States and as the manna of heaven expect them to receive both financial assistance and the supply of food, etc.
      3. In Syria, the United States forced out? I wonder where and who did it? and the fact that the entire eastern Syria is under the control of the United States and its allies, the Kurds, is that how? or is it no longer the Syrian territory?
  24. Compasure
    Compasure 23 October 2018 23: 11
    0
    Libya certainly has a better geographical position for controlling the Mediterranean than Syria, but not so much as to be subject to various additional sanctions. And as the author correctly noted, stabilization of the situation in Libya will lead to a drop in oil prices
  25. EvilLion
    EvilLion 25 October 2018 09: 41
    0
    The first and necessary condition for our intervention is a direct appeal of the lawful authorities with a subsequent contract. And without it, it would just be climbing into a multilateral Free PvP for the sake of PvP itself.
  26. Dr.KonradMorgen
    Dr.KonradMorgen 27 October 2018 01: 33
    0
    Hot delirium of semi-mixed amateurs. The campaign in the SAR is still unknown when (and it is not known how) it will end. And in such a situation, climb into Libya ?? negative
  27. Lara Croft
    Lara Croft 27 October 2018 17: 31
    0
    The author wants to convince good-natured and gullible members of the forum that it is extremely important for the Russian Federation to start "dragging chestnuts out of the fire" for the Empireists from the EU / USA and for the Arabs who have sold these Empireists ... with giblets ...
    It is better for the Russian Federation to do the opposite, to create an analogue of ISIS on the territory of Libya and let Southern Europe "sleep peacefully" .... you see, they will send a couple of battalions less to the Baltic states and Poland ...
  28. Allexxx
    Allexxx 27 October 2018 19: 15
    0
    It seems to me premature to talk about what we ended up with Syria. Mine clearance, restoration of Syria's infrastructure, cultural centers of Syria (for example, Aleppo), there is still much work.
  29. Vasilij Pereira
    Vasilij Pereira 29 October 2018 18: 17
    0
    I am surprised at the duplicity and hypocrisy of the EU, at first, they themselves destroyed Libya, and now they are outraged that the Libyans are interfering with the EU's life! After all, the EU countries: Italy, France, Germany, "ran ahead of the steam locomotive (USA)" in the bombing of a sovereign state, and now they are whining about the troubles with migrants!