Military Review

Minsk agreements now in Idlib? Shoigu told about the details of the memorandum

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Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu presented some details of the agreement reached with Turkey on the situation in Syrian Idlib. Recall that on the eve of the settlement of the Idlib problem, the presidents of Russia and Turkey agreed, having met in Sochi. Ultimately (after negotiations that lasted around 4,5 hours) a memorandum was signed, which somewhat resembles the “Minsk Agreements”. Why?


Minsk agreements now in Idlib? Shoigu told about the details of the memorandum


As in the “Minsk Agreements”, the Idlib memorandum defines the zone of separation of the parties (in this case to a depth of 15-20 km), and also provides for the withdrawal of heavy equipment and other weapons from this zone. At the same time, there is also its main difference: Turkish and Russian military personnel will follow the execution of the memorandum.

According to Sergei Shoigu, all heavy weapons from the demilitarized zone in Idlib must be withdrawn before October 10, then within 5 days this zone must also be abandoned by radical formations. The main question is: which formations do the parties to the memorandum recognize as radical, provided that there are dozens of different gangster groups in Idlib, literally each of which considers itself to be a “moderate opposition”?

As it turns out, under the radical groups, Russia and Turkey in this case understand only those that are recognized as terrorist at the UN level. And these are ISIS and Dzhebhat an-Nusra (* both are prohibited in the Russian Federation). But the problem is that, firstly, “Dzhebhat al-Nusra” * has long ago made a “rebranding”, actually divided into several terrorist groups, which the UN did not have time to rank as terrorist, secondly, ISIS * in Idlib practically no .

Such a state of affairs may indicate that the very militants who are present in this territory today, hiding behind the status of "rebels" and "moderate oppositionists" donated from abroad, may well remain in the demilitarized zone.
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  1. Thrall
    Thrall 18 September 2018 18: 03
    +2
    Offhand, two positive points. The build-up of NATO forces in the region has been devalued and the "chemical attack" in Idlib has lost its meaning.
    1. Livonetc
      Livonetc 18 September 2018 18: 09
      +13
      Well, a negative point in the continuation of the analysis.
      Provocations in the form of attacks on patrols of both Turkish units and Russian units are very likely.
      1. Thrall
        Thrall 18 September 2018 18: 12
        +3
        Not everything can be solved here and now. Another tricky chess game is being played. There are terms in which it will be very difficult for the Turks to meet the delimitation of their proxies and inapplicable annoyances. If this does not happen, then there will be a revision of the agreements. There was time and motivation to solve such problems as Rojava and Et-Tanfe.
        In short, we'll see.
        1. Romario_Argo
          Romario_Argo 18 September 2018 18: 19
          +4
          Another tricky chess game is being played.

          The Idlib zone is not frail, so it will shrink in size
          from Aleppo moved to 20 km. the border in Latakia will generally be cleared. from air base Ab-Duhur pushed ash to Sarakib
          Thrall

          You wrote earlier in the comments: the loading of the S-300 air defense system in Novorossiysk will begin
          The only question is which one will be shipped:
          PMU-1 - 6 channel negative
          PMU-2 - 36 channels laughing
          1. hrych
            hrych 18 September 2018 19: 20
            +7
            Quote: Romario_Argo
            20 km from Aleppo

            This time, but we must not forget that the greens are not an international rabble, like the black ones, but the citizens of Syria. In this sense, partly it is possible to postpone stripping. There is already really a question of a civil war, and the greens and their families have nowhere to go, so you can freeze the situation, especially since the Israelis once again responded to these agreements with such meanness, which means they did not like the end of the war in Syria.
        2. poplar in Kiev
          poplar in Kiev 18 September 2018 18: 26
          +27
          We have already seen hpp. Donbass is washing away from such plans with blood
          1. Semurg
            Semurg 18 September 2018 19: 15
            +4
            Quote: poplar in Kiev
            We have already seen hpp. Donbass is washing away from such plans with blood

            There is a proverb "it was smooth on paper, but they forgot about the ravines."
          2. hrych
            hrych 18 September 2018 19: 24
            +5
            Kiev is inhabited in the overwhelming majority of Russians and "poplar on Kiev" will destroy innocent people, who, and so under the yoke of Banderlog, are not sweet. Also, the death of units in Minsk and the death of thousands in the absence of Minsk at stake, and also in the Armed Forces of Ukraine they call on ordinary guys, Russian guys, these are Terbats volunteers.
        3. Leshy1975
          Leshy1975 18 September 2018 19: 09
          +10
          Quote: Thrall
          Not everything can be solved here and now. Another tricky chess game is being played. There are terms in which it will be very difficult for the Turks to meet the delimitation of their proxies and inapplicable annoyances. If this does not happen, then there will be a revision of the agreements. There was time and motivation to solve such problems as Rojava and Et-Tanfe.
          In short, we'll see.

          This has never happened and here again! Another HPP? Oh well.
        4. NordUral
          NordUral 18 September 2018 19: 37
          +13
          We’ve been looking at Donbass for four years now. And nothing good is visible ahead.
          1. DUST
            DUST 18 September 2018 20: 16
            +2
            Quote: NordUral
            We’ve been looking at Donbass for four years now. And nothing good is visible ahead.

            Well, how can I say, there is no longer Makhnovism and state structures there and the army is forming .. Bandera people are afraid to poke in there (remembering the boilers, etc.). They started to shoot, but this is clearly the US special services, etc. .. They provoke Russia, as in Syria ... Russia needs to be tied into a war, a lot of money has been made and will be made. soldier
            The next provocation is sure to be connected with Kazakhstan ..
            1. Pereira
              Pereira 19 September 2018 00: 34
              0
              Type of breakthrough?: Or how?
          2. Alexey Lesogor
            Alexey Lesogor 19 September 2018 11: 07
            +1
            And there is an example 08.08.08, where people have been without war for 10 years.
        5. Karabin
          Karabin 18 September 2018 21: 42
          +4
          Quote: Thrall
          Another tricky chess game is being played.

          The trick is that our Most Tricky Chess Player took to play several games at once, but mastered only the opening. The endgame will have to be raked by others.
          1. Pereira
            Pereira 19 September 2018 00: 35
            -1
            He went a little. And then Barely.
    2. DUST
      DUST 18 September 2018 18: 09
      +1
      Quote: Thrall
      The build-up of NATO forces in the region has been devalued and the "chemical attack" in Idlib has lost its meaning.

      I agree, most likely this was calculated ... the United States is a straightforward fool to the shores of Syria, and Israel is still piracy .. It’s better to negotiate than to conflict!
      1. imrek_ua
        imrek_ua 18 September 2018 19: 52
        +3
        Usually the desire to "agree" instead of "understand" is attributed to the Jews. But in practice, it turns out that Jews are just the same capable of drastic actions. And their opponents .... to put it mildly - no.
      2. Pereira
        Pereira 19 September 2018 00: 35
        0
        It seems that Katz offered to surrender, and he was supported.
    3. Vadim237
      Vadim237 18 September 2018 18: 10
      +10
      As if in this zone of demarcation, our military did not begin to die in ambushes and sorties of militants.
    4. NN52
      NN52 18 September 2018 18: 12
      0
      Thrall
      I agree with you ...
      But now comrades will come running, and they will prove that we passed Idlib ...
      And to think with his head, indeed, about such an agreement (and that chemical provocation has lost its meaning), and what it carries, it will not be fate ...
      Probably hope that a sober calculation will prevail ...
    5. Lord of the Sith
      Lord of the Sith 18 September 2018 18: 18
      +13
      Another plus is that the militants dug tunnels and built bunkers and created minefields. Now they need to withdraw from positions and go to the steppe from the hatched hills. And of course, the area under the militants is getting smaller. Two tracks are also released: M4 and M5.
      1. Thrall
        Thrall 18 September 2018 18: 22
        +2
        Exactly...
      2. Pereira
        Pereira 18 September 2018 18: 33
        +7
        More dig. Now they are not limited by anything and are in no hurry.
        1. g1v2
          g1v2 18 September 2018 20: 26
          +6
          When they built these fortified areas, the situation was different. Then there was still a single coalition of Jaish al Fatah, there were huge cash injections, there was construction equipment in commodity quantities. Plus, many bunkers and fortifications were built by German companies, and not the slippers themselves. Now the situation has seriously changed. Plus a map of control by various groups shows. that they are strong in new positions, even if they are, they are focal and they can be circumvented through the territory of other groups that have not been dug in so much.
          The most powerful strongholds of militants are in the control zone of Jaish al-Izza in the north of Hama and in the region of Sirmania south of Jisr al-Shugur, which are controlled by the Islamic party of Turkestan. Both are legitimate prey. which can be flattened. Plus, most of their territories are in this demilitarized zone, and they are unlikely to agree. So, after the contract expires, they either leave their positions for years or become violators of the contract, which can be flattened separately from the other broads. request
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      3. Sarmat Sanych
        Sarmat Sanych 18 September 2018 18: 47
        0
        In fact, nothing was left of Idlib plus the withdrawal of all heavy weapons under our control. Babakhs multiplied by zero))).
        1. Pereira
          Pereira 18 September 2018 22: 00
          -1
          Yes, yes, and they took Kiev.
    6. K-50
      K-50 18 September 2018 18: 25
      +4
      Quote: Thrall
      Offhand, two positive points. The build-up of NATO forces in the region has been devalued and the "chemical attack" in Idlib has lost its meaning.

      And then from Idlib, from behind the Turks, drones with "goodies" will fly to Khmeimim again. Well, what is the point of these agreements then? To pay with the lives of Russian soldiers again? negative
      All in the furnace, to Allah, Shaitan, anywhere, but not alive.
      1. igorbrsv
        igorbrsv 18 September 2018 19: 21
        +6
        What's the point? The meaning, probably, is a smoke break. Otherwise, and to the third world at hand. Life, too, was fed up with me, but she didn’t manage to feed everyone
        1. Pereira
          Pereira 18 September 2018 22: 03
          -1
          Yes, those who are not tired of life, it's time to raise their hands.
    7. milling machine
      milling machine 18 September 2018 19: 42
      -2
      Quote: Thrall
      Offhand, two positive points. The build-up of NATO forces in the region has been devalued and the "chemical attack" in Idlib has lost its meaning.

      And if, well, so offhand. That is what the Western coalition sought. The offensive is suspended, Idlib does not obey Assad.
      Victory, or multi-way, another and victorious (now for sure)
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    8. Faceless
      Faceless 19 September 2018 09: 50
      +1
      It is silly to compare the Minsk agreements and the situation in Idlib. Of course, you can compare the Hummer and the Ferrari - all 4 wheels, both cars, there are a couple more features, but so many excellent nuances that the comparison loses its meaning as such. So it is here. I don't even want to develop this line in detail, in view of the obviousness. True, along the way, I will draw some parallels "by the way".

      About the situation itself. Firstly, it should be assessed with an eye to what could have happened if the RF and Turkey had not agreed on what happened. In the section "Analytics" on VO, various scenarios were popularly described several times, and none of them was better than the one that Vladimir Putin and RT Erdogan managed to agree on on Monday (and now compare this point with Ukraine - in general in different planes)

      Secondly, these agreements are very temporary, as evidenced by the dates indicated in them. and a rapidly changing situation in itself. Nobody is talking about the "eternity" of this state of affairs, but at the moment it is a positive step forward that suits all (except the US) parties to the negotiations. It is highly likely that we will observe changes by the end of the year. At the same time, in the course of these changes, Turkey's behavior and reaction can be easily calculated and predicted, since it fights for its interests with a weighty regard for economic benefits and is negotiable (again, unlike Ukraine in a different situation).

      Thirdly, the named arrangements allowed at this stage avoid big blood. Both SAA, Turks, and civilians. Whoever says anything, but it is there and it’s hard for him. Again - there is every reason to believe that there will be no chemical attack (In Ukraine, there is no such problem. About the chemical plant in the DPR, it seems - the topic is different and separate)

      Fourth, regarding the rebranding of terrorist groups. Everything is taken into account here, the author has apparently inaccurate information. All terrorists with heavy weapons and a not-so-demilitarized zone must leave. If you don’t want to, we will solve problems as they become available (With rebranding in Ukraine, problems are also different)

      Fifthly, the created zone secured a number of strategic roads and approaches to Aleppo, which is also important and is another definite tactical success.

      Sixth, the situation in Syria is much more flammable. To make it clear: if tomorrow the RF Armed Forces with a large-scale offensive in two days reach Kiev, except for a portion of lies in the world media, and so the inevitable portion of sanctions and international condemnation does not threaten us. Nobody will intervene for Ukraine (another thing is that we will not do this for a number of reasons, but nonetheless).
      Imagine the same thing in Syria. The consequences can be catastrophic both for the Russian Federation and for the world as a whole. Therefore, the importance of this agreement is still different, and it will certainly be respected in a different way.

      And this is only a fraction of the nuances. Even offhand points 10 you can write.

      Conclusion: the author of the news should not write about that. what he does not specialize in. In principle, a helicopter with a torpedo boat can be compared, and even common features can be found, but who needs such a comparison?
  2. ANCIENT
    ANCIENT 18 September 2018 18: 06
    +3
    and what will happen next, the section of Syria, or the Turks will take militants belay and besides the Turks there is another important player - Iran. What his opinion and what actions he will take on the legalized partition of Syria is unknown, but I sincerely wish that 'partisans' would appear in the rear of the Turkish occupation army and smash the Turkish meat.
    1. Bull Terrier
      Bull Terrier 18 September 2018 22: 17
      +1
      Iran fully agrees with these decisions and supported them.
  3. anjey
    anjey 18 September 2018 18: 08
    +1
    Such a state of affairs may indicate that the very militants who are present in this territory today, hiding behind the status of "rebels" and "moderate oppositionists" donated from abroad, may well remain in the demilitarized zone.
    And the sleeping cells of these freaks will attack in the future and at the direction of the curators of the fighters of the air forces of Russia ....
    1. Thrall
      Thrall 18 September 2018 18: 09
      +5
      They don’t have to be sleeping, because located in the territory they control.
      1. anjey
        anjey 18 September 2018 18: 20
        +1
        And they will defiantly and "bravely" rattle their weapons behind Turkish backs ...
  4. _Kotegpushisteg_
    _Kotegpushisteg_ 18 September 2018 18: 09
    -1
    and most recently, laurels and co have been convincing the opposition in Astana that there will be a national dialogue, just don’t bother us from the Isis! now just go to Asada or VKS bombs
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 18 September 2018 19: 26
      -3
      Apparently not all the trump cards in our hands were
  5. ultra
    ultra 18 September 2018 18: 12
    +3
    At any moment, a Turk is a knife in the back, an extremely dirty folk.
    1. GRF
      GRF 18 September 2018 18: 35
      +1
      And friends too?
      Then why are they still over 70 million?
      And the car is dangerous when careless ...
    2. NordUral
      NordUral 18 September 2018 19: 40
      -2
      Not the people, Michael, but the rulers.
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  7. poplar in Kiev
    poplar in Kiev 18 September 2018 18: 53
    +4
    Why is Israel bombing hezbola, and Russia is not bombing the camps of the right sector, and other Ukrainian terrorists?
    If they are recognized as terrorist organizations, constant threats come from them.
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 18 September 2018 19: 29
      +1
      The "international community" gets in the way. Where do you please put them wassat
    2. Corsair0304
      Corsair0304 19 September 2018 09: 47
      +1
      Quote: poplar in Kiev
      Why is Israel bombing hezbola, and Russia is not bombing the camps of the right sector, and other Ukrainian terrorists?

      Because there are mattresses behind the Israelis, and no one is standing in Russia - on the contrary, we understand one and all.
  8. 452336
    452336 18 September 2018 19: 05
    +3
    The Minsk agreements are for the most part dead. Syria is much further from us than Donbas. And Ukraine is much more important than Syria. I do not see an analogy
  9. passerby
    passerby 18 September 2018 19: 10
    +1
    Quote: Thrall
    Offhand, two positive points. The build-up of NATO forces in the region has been devalued and the "chemical attack" in Idlib has lost its meaning.
    If desired, you can see a positive moment in a severed hand - you can buy one glove.
    1. Cossack 471
      Cossack 471 18 September 2018 19: 25
      +2
      "Radical militants will leave Idlib" The key question is WHERE will they flow? How long will they babysit?
      1. igorbrsv
        igorbrsv 18 September 2018 19: 38
        +1
        There is probably nowhere else to flow in Syria
  10. NordUral
    NordUral 18 September 2018 19: 27
    +5
    In addition to the momentary, and even very unobvious benefits, this is only a repetition of Minsk, which brought nothing good to Little Russia, Donbass, or Russia.
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 18 September 2018 19: 36
      0
      Your truth. But they did not deny
    2. sogdy
      sogdy 19 September 2018 14: 54
      0
      Quote: NordUral
      this is just a repetition of Minsk,

      It’s very interesting, but at what Minsk? Who even launched a cartoon about Minsk?
      Standard UN-OV distinction.
  11. Awaz
    Awaz 18 September 2018 19: 36
    +4
    in fact, it is clear that the situation should be resolved according to the Chechen scenario. But I am tormented by vague doubts that it will be possible to find adequate "bandits" with whom one can negotiate "on good terms." Buying and coaxing bandits requires a huge amount of money. At whose expense will such a banquet be held? Again for ours? ..
    On the other hand, neither the UN nor any other "international" organizations can be allowed ... If they are put to nothing ...
    1. sogdy
      sogdy 19 September 2018 15: 05
      0
      Quote: AwaZ
      then it is necessary to resolve the situation according to the Chechen scenario

      Wai, what a loud word! Is it okay that the "Chechen scenario" completely repeats Primorsky? And north-Krasnoyarsk. And 4 dozen more.
      Spiders in the jar? - in the bank. Let them bite. Let them show the high moral principles for which they fought for so many years.
      The only question is that no one is ready to catch these spiders around the world. And there, they knew, the last Fighting Cats and other combat units in themselves. They are not Chechens at all, and it’s not the same trash that has pressed against the Dagis.
  12. LMN
    LMN 18 September 2018 20: 57
    +4
    Here is what I wanted to say.
    This is not a war of the Russian Federation. This is a war between Syria, Israel, Turkey and Iran. Everything that happens in Syria, in one way or another, can affect their territorial integrity! Hence "why Israel is bombing Syria", "why the Turks climb into Idlib "," there are a lot of Iran in Syria "and so on. At this stage it does not threaten us. We
    in this war (after the USA), the most unnecessary.
    "Because they are at war, and we are at work .." (c)

    If you stick your hand into the hornet’s nest, do you really expect that there will be no consequences ??
    If on a branch where the crowd is euphoric, something or someone is "minus", you try for the minus, what should you expect?)) Of course minuses (and you are still right or not).
    When the Russian Federation introduced troops to Syria, in fact becoming a "buffer" between the 4 warring countries, what did they count on?
    Being in the hearth the war , it was impossible not to count on losses. And it doesn’t matter who is in power: Putin, Lenin or Potter! WAR!!! and there will be losses in any case. Friendly fire, equipment failure, human factor .. Imho, we voluntarily showed up there. And now there is nothing to "blow lips"! (I’m not the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, these are “commentators” on VO)
    "He called himself a load, climb into the box" (c).

    If you react to each episode as many suggest in the comments, then from "observers and supporters", the Russian Federation will become one of members of the WAR ..and your "Internet whining" will turn into a real cry .. think about it.

    PS. The conclusion with our shot down airplane, in my opinion, is the only true and logical one: Faster to end the war in Syria !!
    Which is what our GS in Idlib is trying to do.

    Waiting for the end drinks
  13. kefan
    kefan 18 September 2018 22: 10
    +1
    Hmm, a painfully familiar "song".
    1. LMN
      LMN 19 September 2018 00: 30
      -1
      Quote: kefan
      Hmm, a painfully familiar "song".

      What are you talking about, dear?)
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  15. Corsair0304
    Corsair0304 19 September 2018 09: 54
    +1
    Agreements, demarcation, the withdrawal of heavy weapons - of course this has already happened and, unfortunately, this does not work on the outskirts. Why - a question for politicians.
    I would like to hope that in Syria it will still be different. Nevertheless, the situation there is very different from the DPR.
    The only question is how will the babakhs be taken out and recognized as "moderate" and "immoderate" —that's the only question. And of course, wait for provocations - where can we go without them? The world community will not allow the situation to be calmly settled.
    1. sogdy
      sogdy 19 September 2018 15: 11
      0
      Quote: Corsair0304
      Nevertheless, the situation there is very different from the DPR.

      Is this a conditioned reflex to Minsk? So he got to do with it? Standard UN scheme.
  16. Alexey Lesogor
    Alexey Lesogor 19 September 2018 11: 07
    0
    Quote: DUST
    And there is an example 08.08.08, where people have been without war for 10 years.

    And there is an example 08.08.08, where people have been without war for 10 years.
    1. sogdy
      sogdy 19 September 2018 15: 13
      0
      Quote: Alexey Lesogor
      Quote: DUST
      And there is an example 08.08.08, where people have been without war for 10 years.

      And there is an example 08.08.08, where people have been without war for 10 years.

      After 15 years of separation.