Military Review

MED: The current exchange rate of the ruble is unrealistic

105
The Minister of Economic Development of Russia commented on the situation with the next stage of the fall of the ruble. According to Maxim Oreshkin, the current (low) ruble exchange rate is associated with a "short-term and sharp outflow of capital from Russia." Without explaining the reasons why the new “short-term” capital outflow from the Russian Federation suddenly became apparent, Oreshkin noted that with the current oil prices the ruble exchange rate could not be so low.


"With the price of a barrel of oil at the level of 78 dollars, the dollar is at the mark of 50 rubles," the Economic Development Minister concluded.

"Must be", but for some reason is not ...

MED: The current exchange rate of the ruble is unrealistic


Recall that earlier the relevant departments have designated the medium-term ruble exchange rate against the US currency at the level of 63-64 units. In the past few days, the ruble has slipped below the 70 rubles mark, and the euro has risen above the 81 ruble bar.

However, on the eve of the Russian currency began to play the position. Amid rising oil prices to almost 80 dollars per barrel, the ruble rose against the US dollar by 1,09 p., And against the euro - by 1,21 p. On Tuesday evening, the courses froze at the following marks: US dollar - 69,47 rubles, euro - 80,62.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects the ruble to continue. The other day, the same Maxim Oreshkin urged Russians to sell foreign currency (if any), and buy rubles.
105 comments
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  1. 210ox
    210ox 12 September 2018 06: 15
    +34
    With this statement, the government representative signed his own worthlessness.
    1. Russia
      Russia 12 September 2018 06: 25
      +32
      Usually, after such statements, the opposite is done. As from the famous film: "it means they will rob." smile
      1. Tatyana
        Tatyana 12 September 2018 06: 42
        +7
        According to Maxim Oreshkin, the current (low) ruble exchange rate is associated with a "short-term and sharp outflow of capital from Russia." Without explaining the reasons why a new "short-term" capital outflow from the Russian Federation suddenly emerged

        Government pension reform in the Russian Federation is a litmus test of political and economic instability in the country. That dollars and other capital and washed out of the country. Hence the subsidence of the ruble to foreign currency.
        Naturally, Oreshkin cannot openly declare this, because he is a member of the government of the Russian Federation.
        The Ministry of Economic Development expects that the strengthening of the ruble will continue.
        Based on what? Yes, on the basis of forceful suppression of the protest movement in the Russian Federation against pension reform.
        1. Senior manager
          Senior manager 12 September 2018 09: 03
          0
          Quote: Tatiana
          Naturally, Oreshkin cannot openly declare this, because he is a member of the government of the Russian Federation.

          Oreshkin cannot openly declare, in his opinion, the true reasons for the outflow of finances from the country. You seem to understand this, but you demand to reveal financial secrets. Naivety? You will not tell a young child about the processes of "making" children in detail. And politics is also involved in this economic brew. You can find out the truth if you want many years later.
          1. Stas157
            Stas157 12 September 2018 13: 15
            -1
            Personally, this time I tend to believe Oreshkin. Because there really were no objective prerequisites for the weakening of the ruble. Sanctions no longer have such power, oil is growing, the economy is stable, the budget is surplus.
            The only reason anyone could benefit from this is our oligarchs and oil and gas companies, who must pay taxes in the second half of September.
            So, they will change their currency for this at a favorable rate, and this will strengthen the ruble. That is, after tax payments, the ruble will have to strengthen.
            Let's take a look and check the forecast.
        2. Bull Terrier
          Bull Terrier 12 September 2018 09: 38
          +2
          Yeah. Liberals are hundreds of times more people gather. No protest movements, who suppressed? 2000 people gathered in Moscow, and how to suppress them. In Vladik, as many as 150. In general, they hit with water cannons))))
    2. KCA
      KCA 12 September 2018 06: 25
      +2
      Any government benefits from a low national currency rate, the lower. all the more profitable, China deliberately underestimated the renminbi, the mericos squealed every day and threatened with sanctions if they didn’t raise the course, but Billy and Obama lacked the spirit to introduce them
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 12 September 2018 07: 02
        +13
        Quote: KCA
        Any government benefits from a low national currency rate, the lower. the more profitable

        But at the same time, tight control of natural monopolies is needed. And we have gas and gas growing along with the dollar. By the way, propane has risen in price over the past 3 months by almost 2 times. And absolutely unreasonable.
        1. KCA
          KCA 12 September 2018 07: 10
          +2
          So propane, like gasoline, is a product of oil cracking, of course, that along with gasoline, it also rises in price, especially since there are a lot of cars on propane, it just did not grow smoothly, but in a jump. Of course, I’m not from the Ministry of Economic Development, and not an economist at all, but, most likely, the price of oil products is growing due to the lack of refineries and the need to purchase equipment for repairing and modernizing existing ones and building new ones when the ruble falls for the currency
          1. zloybond
            zloybond 12 September 2018 08: 32
            +1
            The price will still rise. For example, an academician spoke and recently stated that the cost
            the production of electric energy decreases ...... the question .... why does its cost to the consumer still grow ???? ....
          2. NKT
            NKT 12 September 2018 08: 59
            +3
            Propane has nothing to do with oil cracking. Propane is extracted from ordinary free gas or from oil (it goes like associated gas - dissolved gas).
            1. KCA
              KCA 12 September 2018 09: 02
              0
              Well, it means that I read the wrong information where both methods were announced - separation from the passing, which, as I understand it, practically no one does, they just burn it, and when cracking
              1. NKT
                NKT 12 September 2018 09: 22
                +3
                Cracking is one of the processes of separation of light hydrocarbons from oil (gasoline fraction, kerosene, etc.).
                In addition to methane, free gas also contains ethane, propane and butane (units of percent), which are emitted at gas processing plants.
                Associated gas, which is dissolved in oil, contains more ethane-propane group (sometimes up to 30-35%), so who burns it and who processes it, it all depends on the composition of the gas itself, but oil comes to the refinery almost without it, it is isolated at oil treatment facilities at the field.
          3. Bull Terrier
            Bull Terrier 12 September 2018 09: 41
            +1
            I don’t know why they have a shortage there, but I looked at how two refineries are modifying Omsk and Khabarovsk and really stunned. I can’t even imagine the order of the numbers, how many are banged into them.
          4. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 12 September 2018 17: 09
            0
            Quote: KCA
            Naturally, along with gasoline, it is becoming more expensive

            The price of propane has always been more than two times lower than the price of 92nd gasoline.
            By the way, propane (petroleum gas) used to be simply burned out during oil refining as a by-product.
      2. DenZ
        DenZ 12 September 2018 08: 05
        +4
        Quote: KCA
        Any government benefits from a low rate of national currency

        Very controversial statement. The low exchange rate of the national currency is beneficial primarily to exporters (produce for rubles, sell for expensive currency)
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 12 September 2018 10: 30
          -1
          In Russia, more than half of all produced in the country goes for export - still, at the same time, do not supply.
          1. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 12 September 2018 17: 11
            0
            Quote: Vadim237
            still, in this course not to deliver.

            Again, according to the formula "Uncle's wife", right? wink
      3. Leeds
        Leeds 12 September 2018 08: 06
        +1
        Quote: KCA
        Any government benefits from a low national currency rate, the lower. all the more profitable, China deliberately underestimated the renminbi, the mericos squealed every day and threatened with sanctions if they didn’t raise the course, but Billy and Obama lacked the spirit to introduce them

        They underestimated by a penny and a half, and the ruble from time to time feels the bottom ... Comparison is incorrect.
      4. Dashout
        Dashout 12 September 2018 10: 12
        +4
        Quote: KCA
        the government benefits from a low national currency rate, the lower. all the more profitable, China deliberately underestimated the renminbi, the mericosa squealed every day and threatened with sanctions if they did not raise the course

        On the one hand, it’s correct, but you didn’t say that a low rate should be accompanied by a sharp development of the national economy! If development does not occur, then it is only useful for the government to fill the budget with the corresponding impoverishment of the population. I don’t know if it is possible to wait for economic growth from this government .. the advisers are still the same ...
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 12 September 2018 06: 27
      +10
      Our economist ministers are good if they do not understand why the rupee is 72 and not 50, and they do not know why the money is fleeing the country. Yes it’s the same, even oligarchs do nest egg for their retirement. winked
    4. Don
      Don 12 September 2018 06: 36
      +5
      To be fair, the Ministry of Economic Development does not participate in the maintenance or some kind of regulation of the ruble exchange rate. This question should be addressed to the Central Bank, which is responsible for this and to the Ministry of Finance, which buys dollars in large quantities every day. Why do they do it? Of course, there is also a speculative component in the fall of the ruble. But under the influence of speculators, the weakening of the ruble is usually very turbulent, with sharp dips and gradual rises. For all the years of our life in modern Russia, we have gone through so many cycles of the weakening of our wooden ruble that we involuntarily began to understand a little about this. So, today the ruble is "lowered" smoothly, without leaps, from session to session.
    5. spirit
      spirit 12 September 2018 07: 11
      0
      The minister is like a resentful little boy who is trying to prove something to someone, and the Market is still blown away by this mediocrity.
      1. Senior manager
        Senior manager 12 September 2018 09: 14
        -1
        Quote: spirit
        The market does not care what this mediocrity bursts.

        You seem from the relatives of Yegor Timurovich? The market itself will regulate everything. Bazar Oreshkin is a minister, but you are taxing right, didn’t go to the ministers? And the economic war is only flaring up.
    6. Evil543
      Evil543 12 September 2018 08: 02
      +7
      The other day, the same Maxim Oreshkin called on Russians to sell foreign currency (if any), and to buy rubles.

      And I only have rubles and there is a little bit ... request
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 12 September 2018 10: 33
        -1
        Well, no, I’ll wait until the ruble drops to 100, then it will be possible to sell part of the currency.
    7. Serge Gorely
      Serge Gorely 12 September 2018 08: 43
      +2
      We on .... deceived you with vouchers, during the default, monetization of benefits, crises ... But again, we have run out of MONEY! Please pay taxes!
    8. YarSer88
      YarSer88 12 September 2018 10: 03
      -1
      In the sense? Our ruble exchange rate has not been restrained by the Central Bank for a long time, so the government here is by no means. Once such a course has been established on the exchange, then it suits everyone.
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 12 September 2018 06: 22
    +8
    There is no one to save the ruble .. Previously, the ruble saved a penny, but left the turnover .. And now Oreshkin, the ruble is saved, but somehow it doesn’t work .. The capital is fleeing the country, from his words .. Stop, I’ll shoot! .. Say no one ...
    1. please
      please 13 September 2018 06: 09
      0
      The economic model on the territory of modern Russia implies the export of the honestly tattered. The "government" remains, like, "taxes." So the screeching about the withdrawal of capital is a purely theatrical action for the amusement of a stupid audience. Hence the humpty-boltai ruble exchange rate with all the other nishtyaks.
  3. bald
    bald 12 September 2018 06: 23
    +16
    What is the outflow of capital - all these frauds with the currency, the pure conspiracy of certain individuals. Any movement of the course bar is millions in the pockets of those participating in the scheme. Financiers are well aware of this and not only they. Announce the participants - only they can, but mutual responsibility. We have all the resources (natural), we trade them, and the ruble is in the ass.
    1. Sergey985
      Sergey985 12 September 2018 06: 34
      +7
      The treasury is filled with rubles, and we are hung up with another freshly cooked noodles.
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 12 September 2018 07: 04
        +5
        Quote: Sergey985
        Treasury filled with rubles

        Did you want to say moshna? wink
        1. Sergey985
          Sergey985 12 September 2018 07: 07
          +2
          You are really quite frank! belay
    2. Pivot
      Pivot 12 September 2018 08: 08
      +1
      It's nice that at least someone understands how to make money, it’s clear to the child, he took it cheaper, sold it more expensive. Someone didn’t have enough money for the island, he staggered the ruble, all sorts of sheep threw off stash of money and, well, someone became the happy owner of the island somewhere in the warm seas. Until the people will not buy currency as savings. The ruble will always ride.
      1. Andrey NM
        Andrey NM 12 September 2018 11: 15
        +1
        Quote: Pivot
        ... and oops, someone became the proud owner of an island somewhere in the warm seas

        It would be correct if the "rogue" were gathered on the island, but only in cold seas, in comfortable cotton quilts and a pick in hand ...
  4. 1 Navigator
    1 Navigator 12 September 2018 06: 29
    -1
    You wanted to say a fall.
  5. milling machine
    milling machine 12 September 2018 06: 30
    +10
    Yes, yes, I remember these assurances. One of the cones of Sberbank said in the 14th year that the dollar would not exceed 35 rubles.
    Remember, hope, do not believe.
    And yes, as noted here above: after such statements - everything will be exactly the opposite.
    1. Bull Terrier
      Bull Terrier 12 September 2018 09: 46
      -3
      And then what happened in the year 14? If it weren’t for Crimea, the situation would be completely different now. Want to rewind and refuse?)
  6. samarin1969
    samarin1969 12 September 2018 06: 32
    +5
    Non-residents are withdrawing from the "emerging market", corporations are withdrawing part of the increased export earnings into dollar "wallets". Whether there will be a reversal of global markets is not up to our "Ministry of Finance" to decide. It is easier and safer for Mr. Oreshkin to "shamanize" than to fill the treasury of the Russian Federation.
  7. Hole puncher
    Hole puncher 12 September 2018 06: 35
    +6
    "With the price of a barrel of oil at the level of 78 dollars, the dollar is at the mark of 50 rubles," the Economic Development Minister concluded.

    ready to buy him dollars at this rate, sell?
  8. ANCIENT
    ANCIENT 12 September 2018 06: 52
    +5
    It's just that this man is from that cohort to whom Russia is not a mother, but an evil stepmother, so she needs to do everything to the detriment. By and large, he has a place as a janitor, in Kalym, or in sunny Magadan, since he is not able to really take up the economy.
    1. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 12 September 2018 07: 04
      +4
      Quote: ANCIENT
      a wicked stepmother

      Milch cow!
  9. milton
    milton 12 September 2018 06: 54
    +5
    Good statement from this loafer fool ! If citizens dump dollars and buy rubles, then it is citizens who will regulate the course. The question is, why in the state are there so many parasites supposedly following this (Central Bank of the Ministry of Finance, etc.)? am
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 12 September 2018 07: 39
      +1
      There was something to reset recourse
  10. faiver
    faiver 12 September 2018 06: 56
    +2
    Maxim Oreshkin called on Russians to sell foreign currency (if any), and to buy rubles.
    - laughing laughing
    1. Freeman
      Freeman 12 September 2018 08: 27
      +2
      Quote: faiver
      Maxim Oreshkin called on Russians to sell foreign currency (if any), and to buy rubles.
      - laughing laughing

      Yeah. Georges Miloslavsky is no longer the same ... No.

      wassat
  11. Altona
    Altona 12 September 2018 07: 00
    +11
    Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in OFZ (federal loan bonds), the announcement of the purchase of dollars for 8 trillion rubles by the Central Bank, expectations of an increase in the Central Bank's discount rate, what are you waiting for, citizens? The pressure on the ruble exchange rate is colossal. Well, from the zomboyaschik, you can pour mantras about "stability and improvement of citizens' lives." Medvedev is sent to a binge, then to be treated for a bruise with a shuttlecock, and you want something. They voted 76,69% for "please treat with understanding", now put up with "stability."
  12. Sotskiy
    Sotskiy 12 September 2018 07: 05
    +1
    "With the price of a barrel of oil at the level of 78 dollars, the dollar is at the mark of 50 rubles," the Economic Development Minister concluded.

    Our ruble is free and it owes nothing to anyone, especially to Oreshkin! And how else could it be with a "free" market? request laughing
    I am free like a bird in the sky ... lol
  13. Graz
    Graz 12 September 2018 07: 08
    +2
    and who prevents at the legislative level to limit or completely prohibit the outflow of capital earned here from Russia, every penny leaving Russia should be accountable where it went, what it went to, who spent it, the country should know its heroes
  14. Reserve buildbat
    Reserve buildbat 12 September 2018 07: 33
    +7
    That is, the Ministry of Economic Destruction directly advises the "drowning" to save themselves. No need to distract serious people from drinking the dough.
  15. konstantin68
    konstantin68 12 September 2018 07: 39
    -1
    Sanctions-risks-capital outflows-weakening ruble. Classic.
    In fairness, it should be noted that the ruble is underestimated, like other currencies.
  16. Altona
    Altona 12 September 2018 07: 39
    +2
    Quote: Graz
    and who prevents at the legislative level to limit or completely prohibit the outflow of capital earned here from Russia, every penny leaving Russia should be accountable where it went, what it went to, who spent it, the country should know its heroes

    -----------------------------
    Well, you just say so. For this you need to have national thinking. What you are proposing is called "cross-border capital controls." Primakov and Maslyukov did this in 1998. We made sure that in the morning and in the evening the amount of currency in banks did not decrease. And the current government benefits from capital outflow, it encourages it.
  17. Cottager452
    Cottager452 12 September 2018 07: 57
    +6
    Import prices are rising following the course (for example, many cars have risen by 5-10% since April). Domestic goods are also pulling up. It can be said that after the presidential election 4 withdrawals from our wallets were successfully made:
    fuel, VAT, pension reform and now a decrease in the purchasing power of the ruble.
    We are waiting for new ingenious decisions and comments from the Ministry of Economic Development and personally Maxim.Oreshkin.
  18. akunin
    akunin 12 September 2018 08: 02
    +4
    it all depends on what reality you live in. in my reality everything costs as much for how much they buy, and not how much they sell
    old joke for Oreshkin (about reality)
    after a plane crash, a Ukrainian (censored) and a Jew were saved. A Ukrainian has a bag of fat, and a Jew has a bag of gold.
    the Jew, looking at how the Ukrainian is wrapping fat, wanted to eat.
    e: Ukrainian, let's arrange a market.
    u: come on.
    e: sell me a piece of fat.
    y: selling for a bag of gold
    e: are you awesome? where did you see that price?
    u: don't like it, go around the market, maybe someone is cheaper.
    here it is reality
    1. renics
      renics 12 September 2018 09: 46
      -1
      "Akunin" is no conclusion. The conclusion is simple, it’s not bad to buy these dollars and there will be no price increase. But this dollar is still needed for international payments between different categories of market relations from an individual to transnational corporations. When the Breton-Woods Agreements were signed, then it was necessary to be indignant, then the US financial representatives from a handful of Fed bankers either somehow ridiculed all the signatories, or applied a method of blackmail, political and economic pressure that they had tested for a long time. That in those years of post-war devastation in Europe it became a decisive way. But these agreements were subsequently leveled over time, and most of the USA do not fulfill them and now use this global financial system created for this long time as a weapon to achieve its narrowly selfish goals. Now this financial system acts like a trap, the main thing is to drag the whole world into this financial pyramid, from where it is impossible or impossible to get out, but with great difficulty. But each time the US state, which is not placed at the service of these financiers, will prevent this in every way, using destabilizing factors in the form of wars, color revolutions and terrorism from its many non-profit foundations designated by them as for the struggle for democracy. In fact, all these are subversive financial elements of US foreign policy. For the bankers of the US Federal Reserve will not give these freshly printed dollars to it, which do not bring any benefit to them. From the book of the American publicist J. Edward Griffin, J. Edward Griffin. (Creature from Jekyll Island) A creature from Jekyll Island. Where the history of the creation of the Fed and the principles of its work around the world are described.
      1. akunin
        akunin 12 September 2018 10: 36
        +1
        Quote: renics
        The conclusion is simple, it’s not bad to buy these dollars and there will be no price increase. But this dollar is still needed for international payments between different categories of market relations from an individual to transnational corporations.
        here the output begins after the word "but", and before that you simplify very much
        fucking buy these dollars and there will be no price increases
        why still haven’t switched to settlements in their currencies? because the value of currencies is determined in dollars, euros, yen, yuan (as an option, gold, but its value is determined in dollars), oil is traditionally traded in dollars (petrodollars). what can we offer the world, because of which the world will give up the dollar? the answer is simple - NOTHING.
        1. renics
          renics 12 September 2018 22: 02
          0
          What is specifically simplified here? You generally do not pay attention to the US Federal Reserve's financial system, but only cite the inventions of Russian home-grown politicians.
          1. akunin
            akunin 13 September 2018 16: 05
            0
            fucking buy these dollars and there will be no price increases
            here specifically. if only you will ignore the dollar as the main currency (most of the transactions in the world go for the dollar), then nothing will change in the world (just as if Russia refuses the Internet, the Internet does not collapse) the dollar is equivalent, but what there would be another equivalent necessary for the majority to recognize it.
  19. The Siberian barber
    The Siberian barber 12 September 2018 08: 05
    -2
    Also, at the very beginning of the month I read: https: //news.mail.ru/economics/34639525/? From = newsapp
    Why, from people, do idioms ??
    1. renics
      renics 12 September 2018 10: 00
      0
      Siberian Barber (Alexey) Also, you do not have a conclusion, it says there. The Russian Ministry of Finance will allocate 7 billion rubles of additional oil and gas revenues for the purchase of foreign currency from September 4 to October 426,9 this year, increasing the daily volume of foreign currency purchases from 16,7 billion rubles in August to 21,3 billion rubles in September. This was reported in the materials posted on the website of the department. We dig deeper into the essence of the matter.
      It is written that it will increase the purchase, but about where they will get the money for this, this is not reported. Very simply, the Central Bank of Russia will simply print new rubles, increasing the ruble mass and thereby devaluing the purchasing power of the ruble and increasing inflation in the country. That's where the price increase comes from.
  20. New Year day
    New Year day 12 September 2018 08: 24
    +6
    maybe not real, but went to the pharmacy for an antihypertensive drug, and he went up by 50 rubles and amounted to 900 rubles. This is real!
    1. akunin
      akunin 12 September 2018 09: 41
      +1
      yesterday bought dumplings, there were 270, steel 300
      Quote: Silvestr
      winked This is real!
  21. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 12 September 2018 08: 27
    +3
    For those who do not follow the conjuncture. In August, "non-residents" sold OFZs for about 260 billion rubles. It is clear what caused ... They buy dollars and take them out of the country. So they were "helped" by pulling up the course.
    Targeted purposefully, the Central Bank bought the currency from the exchange in ever increasing volumes ... sales
    OFZs were replaced by purchases ... And those who want to buy rubles will be offered to buy them - at the rate indicated by Oreshkin. wassat
    The result will be such a combination, the Ministry of Finance will "play" 10% both there and back ...
    1. renics
      renics 12 September 2018 10: 12
      +2
      The American dollar does not have a true innate value. He is a classic example of maternity money that does not have any restrictions in their quantitative production. Its original value is based on the willingness of people to accept it, and laws force them to do so.
      And of course it is true that our money is made from nothing, but nevertheless one should be more precise and say that they are based on debt. And in this sense, our money is created from less than nothing. All monetary circulation may disappear in bank crypts and computer chips if all debts are repaid.

      However, under the current System, our leaders cannot afford to seriously reduce either national or consumer debt. Making a profit in the form of interest from fake debts is usury, and it is legalized under the Federal Reserve System.
      The mechanism of Mandrake, with the help of which the Federal Reserve turns debts into money, only at first glance seems to be something complicated, in fact, it is simple if everyone remembers that the logic is not needed when explaining it, it is only based on sense and deception. The final product of the Mandragora Mechanism is the artificial expansion of money circulation, which is the root of hidden taxation, called inflation.

      This expansion leads to a narrowing of purchasing power, and produces the destructive cycles of “prosperity-collapse” that plague mankind throughout its history, in all cases where “maternity” money existed.
  22. shura7782
    shura7782 12 September 2018 08: 30
    +2
    For me personally, there is no question of what to do with rubles. According to the latest economic "leaps, leaps, breakthroughs" of the government, all its free cash is in hard currency.
  23. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 12 September 2018 08: 34
    +7
    The fall in the ruble exchange rate is caused primarily by the fact that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sells the ruble on the exchange, setting its rate based on the results of exchange trading. The ruble exchange rate largely depends on the demand for the currency. The current fall in the ruble exchange rate is caused by the fact that, due to the threat of sanctions, the holders of Russian government bonds of external borrowing began to sharply dump them and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was forced to "extinguish" them by paying the currency. In addition, due to the threat of sanctions and the "increased attention" of the US fiscal authorities to the banking sector, banks carrying out operations with the Russian Federation and Russian companies, all foreign banks and funds holding Russian assets in rubles began to get rid of them, dropping rubles and transferring them to another currency. Because of this, the demand for currency increased sharply and the demand for rubles fell, which turned out to be a lot on the exchange market. This caused the ruble to fall. Due to the sanctions, the inflow of currency into the country is now sharply limited and will remain so in the future. Now, the stock exchanges are experiencing a sharp drop in the demand of exchange speculators against the ruble. Nobody needs it there - there is practically no demand. So, if there is an adjustment in the ruble exchange rate towards its decrease (that is, a fall in price against the dollar), then it will be insignificant and inertial. However, there is still a "second wave of sanctions" which is planned to be introduced in October, and about 12 billion more RF securities are in the hands of foreign residents, if for some reason they start dumping them, then the Central Bank will have to seek foreign exchange reserves to repay them, which again, it will have an unflattering effect on the ruble exchange rate. However, in this case, the Central Bank will only face a shortage of currency, but there will be no surplus of rubles of "private traders" on the exchange, all the holders will throw off the ruble before that (they have actually thrown it off), so there will be no strong fall in the ruble against the dollar. speculators simply will not have extra rubles on the stock exchange in order to whip up the price of the dollar - the dollar rate will first go up sharply, and then, faced with a ruble deficit, it will also sharply fall down and a "cut-off" -stabilization will occur.
  24. Breard
    Breard 12 September 2018 08: 42
    +2
    In this country, there is no "power" capable of conducting its own policy ... let's say like China.
    The Americans simply rob ... with the "ruble exchange rate" and do it with the knowledge and together with the Central Bank of Russia .. hmm so this is "their" structure.
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 12 September 2018 08: 56
      +4
      It's right. Such a situation has developed in Russia due to the fact that "kudrinomics" still reigns in it, developed and implemented by the "laureate of the most prestigious IMF prize", "financier of all times and peoples" - RF Minister of Finance Mr. Kudrin. Its main postulates, approved by the IMF: 1-banks are primary in the economy, they are the "locomotives" of the economy and therefore the main support of the state is for them, 2- "direct financing" is harmful, any financing only through credit, 3-sale of everything should be carried out only through exchanges, auctions that are market instruments, fixed prices for goods and services are unacceptable, 4-it is necessary to withdraw all "extra" money from the economy and accumulate it abroad, the development of the economy should be carried out only through external borrowing and investments, 5-cutting of all social programs to a minimum - the citizens of the country must pay everything themselves, and preferably through a loan, for the constant "feeding" of the banks, which thus "suck" excess money from the domestic market and thereby "reduce" inflation, 6-cash must be withdrawn from the turnover and the turnover of any penny must be accountable and controlled by the state, 7-free conversion of the ruble through the exchange. 8-any "recommendations" of the IMF are not discussed, but implemented, etc.
  25. Vard
    Vard 12 September 2018 08: 45
    +2
    After that, he is like a decent person ... He is simply obliged to shoot himself ...
  26. Servisinzhener
    Servisinzhener 12 September 2018 08: 51
    +2
    His position and the name of the department headed by him is not very consistent with what he says. And so constantly. It seems that he works as a captain of evidence in the Ministry of well-known facts.
    I want to say: -Mil person. About what the value of official inflation and the exchange rate we know perfectly well without you. Do what you need? How to improve the situation? Minister is your mother of economic development.
  27. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 08: 55
    0
    Quote: KCA
    Any government benefits from a low national currency rate, the lower. the more profitable, China deliberately underestimated the renminbi,

    This is dumping. In fact, the depreciation of the national currency leads to a decrease in demand (does it need to be said that the capitalists consider this parameter to be one of the most important) within the country and the stagnation of the economy (this is at best).
    Not for nothing that the capitalists are trying by all means to spur demand.
    1. Leshy1975
      Leshy1975 12 September 2018 10: 26
      +2
      Quote: lucul
      Quote: KCA
      Any government benefits from a low national currency rate, the lower. the more profitable, China deliberately underestimated the renminbi,

      This is dumping. In fact, the depreciation of the national currency leads to a decrease in demand (does it need to be said that the capitalists consider this parameter to be one of the most important) within the country and the stagnation of the economy (this is at best).
      Not for nothing that the capitalists are trying by all means to spur demand.

      This is only if there is an interest in business in the domestic market. And since the richest and most influential (oligarchy) are mainly engaged in sales abroad (usually raw materials), the lower the rate of nat. currency, the faster the growth of capital. And their direct interest is that within the country an employee would work for 1 bucks a day, and if for 1 bucks a month, it would be even better. Because in this case, the cost of 1 unit of output for them drops significantly. And so of course, a business focused specifically on the domestic market is the first interested in high customer demand. But this is not our case. Our case is wild oligarchic capitalism, focused exclusively on foreign trade. After the collapse of the USSR, we are only building this. But it’s stable, that’s why stability in the country and the buck is growing and will also grow stably laughing .
  28. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 09: 00
    0
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    The drop in the ruble exchange rate is caused primarily by the fact that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sells the ruble on the exchange by setting its exchange rate based on the results of exchange trading. The ruble exchange rate to a large extent depends on the demand for foreign currency.

    Just need to add - on the New York Stock Exchange, that is, in fact, we are setting the course.
    This is called - they sat down at one table to play with cheaters and with constantly changing rules at their request.
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 12 September 2018 09: 27
      +2
      By the way, I missed one moment in my post when I said that the next "jump" in the dollar rate would not be due to the lack of large volumes of "private traders" rubles on the stock exchange. A leap could be in the event that the state allocates large-scale ruble assistance (tens to hundreds of billions of rubles) to companies of the "national property" type and "state banks" as "victims of sanctions", which, according to their custom, will try to convert to dollars immediately. By the way, there is an opinion that it was according to this scenario that the previous fall in the ruble exchange rate took place in 2016, or rather it played a significant role, in addition to other factors.
      1. fif21
        fif21 12 September 2018 20: 18
        0
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        A leap could be in the event that the state allocates large-scale ruble assistance (tens to hundreds of billions of rubles) to companies of the "national property" type and "state banks" as "victims of sanctions", which, according to their custom, will try to convert to dollars immediately.

        Mattresses have imposed sanctions, threatening to freeze assets and disconnect Russian banks from the payment system! And who in such circumstances will buy dollars? hi
  29. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 09: 11
    0
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    all foreign banks and funds-holders of Russian assets in rubles began to get rid of them - dropping rubles and transferring them to another currency. Because of this, demand for currency sharply increased and demand for rubles fell, which turned out to be very much on the exchange market. This caused a drop in the ruble exchange rate. Due to sanctions, the inflow of currency into the country is now sharply limited and will remain so in the future. Now, on the exchanges there is a sharp drop in the demand of exchange speculators against the ruble. Nobody needs it there, there is practically no demand.

    That is why it is necessary to switch to settlements in national currency, and not in dollars. Then we will not depend on speculators and the ruble will suddenly rise "everyone" needs.
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 12 September 2018 10: 00
      +3
      Well, how many times to say, well, the calculation in national currency will not work, only if you are at a loss. After all, it is written in my subordinate post, according to world rules, trading is carried out through exchanges and only through CLS currencies, where neither the ruble, nor by the way, the yuan is included. Long-term contracts (like weapons) are traded in the most stable currencies in order to avoid losses (and swearing when the rate "shakes") when the exchange rate jumps. The ruble is an unstable currency and it is not a clearing currency, therefore, no one keeps this currency anywhere in their banks, they buy it on exchanges as needed. Isn't it easier to buy the same oil (or gas) for "usual" dollars from the same Saudi Arabia, bypassing the purchase of the "jumping" "back and forth" ruble? No one will bother with the ruble as long as there are alternative offers in dollars. And most importantly, trading in rubles is unprofitable ..... for Russia itself, which is interested in an inflow of foreign exchange earnings. Trade in resources for foreign currency under the conditions of sanctions, the closure of the foreign borrowing market, and sanctions on weapons contracts remains practically the only way to obtain foreign currency for the state. There is a way to trade resources bypassing the dollar (although pricing will still go through the dollar equivalent) is to trade resources on the Shanghai and Hong Kong Exchanges for yuan and then transfer them into gold futures, which can be converted into physical gold there ... but .. ..the funny thing is that having received gold futures or physical gold, you will not receive the currency that is necessary for subsequent foreign trade activities, in order to get currency for them, you also need to sell them ... but to sell, how futures and gold are very, very difficult - no demand. Absolutely no. Not needed. You will have to wait for someone to have a desire to take profit or something else, in gold. You can wait for a very long time, and if they also impose sanctions on exchange trading, the purchase of any assets from the Russian Federation, then you can not wait at all ...
      1. fif21
        fif21 12 September 2018 20: 13
        0
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        And most importantly, trading in rubles is unprofitable ..... Russia itself, which is interested in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings

        The trade balance of Russia is positive. And due to the fact that Russian goods will be in rubles or tugriks, the business is violet. The main rule is profit! hi And the purchase of the ruble for the euro or dollar will ensure the flow of currency into the country.
  30. Guru
    Guru 12 September 2018 09: 11
    +1
    Maxim Oreshkin called on Russians to sell foreign currency (if any), and to buy rubles.
    So you have to buy dollars. When the ruble falls, the Ministry of Finance says that the ruble is in free float, and when it rises (strengthens), they are buying up dollars without letting the ruble rise and call it a necessity. The need, according to officials, is for the Russians to work for the stew.
  31. Maverick1812
    Maverick1812 12 September 2018 09: 28
    +5
    And Oreshkin is aware that with such oil prices, fuel prices, too ... to put it mildly, well, they should not rise! In general, I congratulate all the idiots who voted for edro! The time will come, we will ask everyone a question: well, son, did your Poles help you !?
    1. Bull Terrier
      Bull Terrier 12 September 2018 09: 53
      -2
      Do you now call tens of millions of people idiots? Did I understand you correctly?)
      1. Leshy1975
        Leshy1975 12 September 2018 10: 34
        +1
        Quote: Bull Terrier
        Do you now call tens of millions of people idiots? Did I understand you correctly?)

        Do you want to knock, no urine? Do not keep to yourself, it is harmful. Run to the secret police, and knock, knock, knock. Our feathered "friend". And don't forget that the most important thing - Here many called the "great" GDP a yellow earthworm.
  32. aszzz888
    aszzz888 12 September 2018 09: 41
    0
    "Must be", but for some reason is not ...

    ... yes, yes, and Oreshkin cannot explain this ...
  33. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 09: 44
    +2
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    A leap could be in the event that the state allocates large-scale ruble assistance (tens to hundreds of billions of rubles) to companies of the "national property" type and "state banks" as "victims of sanctions", which, according to their custom, will try to convert to dollars immediately. By the way, there is an opinion that it was according to this scenario that the previous fall in the ruble exchange rate took place in 2016, or rather it played a significant role, in addition to other factors.

    It was like that - well, they could not resist the "profit" (worship of the golden calf it is, yes) even at the cost of the impoverishment of the people.
    The Central Bank wanted it better — if the issued rubles were not converted into dollars, then the dollar would not have risen above 40 rubles.
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 12 September 2018 10: 10
      0
      So. hi But now, oddly enough, the sanctions factor can play for the ruble, due to the fact that it has become "dangerous" to hold the ruble, it has become uninteresting to speculators, well, they will buy the ruble for dollars, and then where to put it (the ruble)? if there is no demand for it in the future? Sell ​​back to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation? wink
      1. fif21
        fif21 12 September 2018 20: 03
        0
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        and then where to put it (ruble)?

        Buy Russian RD-180, grain, oil, gas, weapons .... hi
    2. renics
      renics 12 September 2018 10: 23
      0
      (if the issued rubles were not converted into dollars, then the dollar would not have risen above 40 rubles) How not to transfer? If international payments between issuers in foreign trade and trade from Russia in rubles are not accepted (these are the rules of the world financial pyramid from the US Federal Reserve), such operations are accepted only among certain countries between which such agreements have been reached, the rest require dollars or euros.
  34. Ros 56
    Ros 56 12 September 2018 10: 08
    0
    Question to the Ministry of Economic Development: why such a ruble exchange rate? Fezushniki stupid sit in the ministries and ask moronic questions.
  35. astepanov
    astepanov 12 September 2018 10: 51
    +2
    Get out of your mind! Ishsho further strengthening of the ruble! If this happens, then soon their dollars will be grinded! The whole country to tear on the Courchevel, Seychelles and other Maldives - with such a gratuitous bucks, you can often tear apart! We’ll eat oysters, we’ll bring their madonnas with diva wagons, so that means morally decompose! Glory to Oreshkin, Urya Nabibulina!
  36. Leshy1975
    Leshy1975 12 September 2018 10: 52
    +2
    "With the price of a barrel of oil at the level of 78 dollars, the dollar is at around 50 rubles," concluded the head of the Ministry of Economic Development.
    Oreshkin will not lie. He is still an official in the government, and our country and population are not such that the liars and other bad personalities are entrusted with the government and fate of the country. Citizen Bull Terrier will always confirm this, we are not like that. Therefore, fully trusting the authorities, in this case in the person of Oreshkin, I’ll go to Putin’s friend - to Sberbank to Gref, and I will demand to sell me bucks for REALLY course, i.e. 50, and 71,29 (the rate in the SB today) let them sell to other suckers. And by the way, citizen Bull Terrier (this is the one who tears a shirt on his chest for power), is it considered that I called almost all Russians such an approach by suckers? The real course must be found, the real one is the one according to which they will sell it to me, and the rest is all wet dreams and fantasies, and possibly hallucinations

    P.S. Lord, how did this schizophrenia of power already get it. Schizophrenia is a mental illness characterized by a distortion of thinking (in the form of delirium) and perception (in the form of hallucinations).
  37. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 10: 57
    +1
    Quote: Leshy1975
    Lord, how did this schizophrenia of power already get it.

    Yes? You would be interested to begin with - who has schizophrenia is a national trait. )))
    1. Leshy1975
      Leshy1975 12 September 2018 11: 03
      0
      Quote: lucul
      Quote: Leshy1975
      Lord, how did this schizophrenia of power already get it.

      Yes? You would be interested to begin with - who has schizophrenia is a national trait. )))

      Interested in whom?
      1. sib.ataman
        sib.ataman 12 September 2018 11: 29
        0
        So you don’t know either?
  38. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 11: 11
    +1
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    The ruble is an unstable currency and it is not a clearing currency, therefore, no one keeps this currency anywhere in their banks, they buy it on exchanges as needed. Isn't it easier to buy the same oil (or gas) for "usual" dollars from the same Saudi Arabia, bypassing the purchase of the "jumping" "back and forth" ruble?

    This is all so - provided that there is a surplus of energy in the world, but the peak of oil has already been crossed and Russia needs to try to trade only for rubles, with a decreasing resource base
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    Well, how many times to say, well, the calculation in the national currency will not work, only if at a loss.

    Quote: Monster_Fat
    And most importantly, trading in rubles is unprofitable ..... Russia itself, which is interested in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings. Trading resources for currency under the conditions of sanctions, the closure of the external borrowing market, and sanctions on arms contracts remains almost the only way for the state to obtain currency.

    Currency is needed, by and large, only when it is necessary to buy what is impossible to obtain in your country — like bananas or natural rubber in the USSR.
    To reduce currency dependence, and the development of its industry is necessary, then a huge dollar mass will be useless.
    But based on the situation - only here and now - then here I agree with you.
  39. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 11: 13
    +1
    Quote: Bull Terrier
    I don’t know why they have a shortage there, but I looked at how two refineries are modifying Omsk and Khabarovsk and really stunned. I can’t even imagine the order of the numbers, how many are banged into them.

    Well, it’s still better - than selling oil abroad - and then buying gasoline from our oil for currency.
  40. lucul
    lucul 12 September 2018 11: 18
    0
    Quote: ANCIENT
    It's just that this man is from that cohort to whom Russia is not a mother, but an evil stepmother, so she needs to do everything to the detriment. By and large, he has a place as a janitor, in Kalym, or in sunny Magadan, since he is not able to really take up the economy.

    As Yatsenyuk said - "Ukraine is not my historical homeland, and after the end of the prime minister's term, I am not going to stay here."
    So this cohort - shekels gathers (shears the wool from the sheep) and home - to their historical homeland.
    1. sib.ataman
      sib.ataman 12 September 2018 11: 25
      0
      So let them knock to their egg faster, until they themselves were cut in bulk!
  41. sib.ataman
    sib.ataman 12 September 2018 11: 22
    +2
    If the course is unrealistic, then what for the people nerves thrash these jumps? Not the Mayor, but some fortuneteller on the coffee grounds!
  42. Ivan58
    Ivan58 12 September 2018 16: 03
    +2
    Hey Oreshkin, as always not in the know? So maybe give way to someone sensible. And there you look and the rest will stretch.
  43. senima56
    senima56 12 September 2018 16: 27
    0
    Mr. Oreshkin, if your forecasts for the ruble exchange rate, etc. do not come true - it means you do not understand anything in economics! And, as a decent and honest person, we must leave this position: "Forgive me, comrades! I failed!"
  44. fif21
    fif21 12 September 2018 19: 56
    0
    Not Russians need to be encouraged to sell currency! And the West needs to be forced to buy rubles for its currencies. hi
  45. APASUS
    APASUS 12 September 2018 20: 43
    0
    Here is the answer to the question whether the Central Bank will protect the ruble! I’ve been wondering why it was necessary to untie the ruble from oil. Now everything turned out
  46. Apollo
    Apollo 12 September 2018 21: 19
    0
    Head of VTB Kostin spoke about the fate of dollar deposits in the event of an increase in sanctions

    Kostin is confident that the owners of dollar deposits will be able to return their money, but in what currency is “another question”

    Draw conclusions ..
  47. Apollo
    Apollo 12 September 2018 21: 47
    0
    Quote: Ivan58
    Hey Oreshkin, as always not in the know? So maybe give way to someone sensible. And there you look and the rest will stretch.

    Explanatory under the current government in the ministers do not take.