The “Idlib sled team” of the USA and Turkey is just the beginning. Preparing a blow to new directions
Without a doubt, the two most anticipated geopolitical events of the past week, preliminarily exaggerated by literally every second eminent military-analytical publication, were the tripartite “Tehran Summit” with the participation of the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran, convened to find ways to resolve the situation in the province seized by militants Idlib, as well as an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, initiated by the British side in an attempt to once again unreasonably discredit Russia in terms of non-compliance with Conva tion on the Prohibition of Chemical weapons. In the last event, everything is extremely clear and predictable. In order to bring the isolation strategy of the West towards Moscow to a new level, providing for the introduction of additional “sanctions packages”, the case of Salisbury poisoning in Salisbury, already annoyed and boring even to the most meticulous journalists, was decided to give a new turn to the “game” of some characters: some Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Bashirov.
Despite the complete absence of Scotland Yard by the “innate investigators” of any convincing evidence of Russia's involvement in Skripale poisoning, as well as the frankly mocking and unfounded accusatory rhetoric of London, which prompted runet users to create a mass of memes and jokes about the “poisoners” of the former colonel GRU Sergey Skripal and his daughter Yulia, the delegations of the United States, Germany, France and Canada fully supported the fictitious version using the Novice nerve gas, which was successfully odvigaet headquarters of the police service in England by the British delegation to the UN Security Council. This means that pressure on our country will continue to grow steadily with the use of any delusional reasons, while the “case of poisoning in Salisbury” will acquire a status similar to the investigation of the so-called witch hunt in the United States, which is used by the White House in every geopolitical scam directed against Russia.
We will now move away from analyzing the intricacies of Germany's “diplomatic maneuvering” in the geopolitical arena and focus exclusively on the results of the trilateral “Tehran summit”, the consequences of “flirting” with Erdogan and the military-political specifics of the start of a large-scale operation to clean up the “Idlib gadyushnik”. This summit has become another personification of a rather tangible ideological split within the "Syrian troika". If Hassan Rouhani and Vladimir Putin are firm supporters of the immediate suppression of the fortified areas of the Tahrir al-Sham and the Islamic Party of Turkestan, Jaysh Izza, Popular Liberation Front, etc. (terrorist organizations are prohibited in the Russian Federation ), and then the restoration of Syrian sovereignty over the liberated regions of the provinces of Idlib, Latakia, Hama and Aleppo, then Turkish President Recep Erdogan by all his actions proves that the presence of pro-Turkish militants in this region is a paramount item on the list of Ankara's interests.
As a result, in the matter of protecting its "tame terrorists" Turkey will go to the end, and even in the same team with Washington. That is why chlorine tanks, as well as the MLRS launcher with unguided missiles, the head parts of which are adapted for installing chlorine liners, were delivered to Jisr al-Shugur completely unhindered, despite the fact that in this city (near the highway M4) is an observation / strong point of NE of Turkey. Conclusion: Erdogan today has the same degree of interest in implementing a provocation using chlorine and a further massive missile attack on the CAA, like Washington.
As we have repeatedly noted in our previous reviews, this is due to Ankara’s great military-political and economic interest in preserving the “idlib bridgehead”. First, for several years now, this region has been used by the Turkish General Staff as a "southern assault fist", which in the foreseeable future may well be used to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the eastern operational direction, the aim of which is to re-seize the southern and central regions. the provinces of Aleppo, long vending to the current leadership of Turkey. Secondly, it is a stable trade in arms, drugs, fuel and even energy, established between the Turkish side and the numerous Islamist paramilitary groups that control Idlib. Thirdly, it is the use of the line of contact between the militants ’controlled areas of Idlib and the territory controlled by the CAA as a testing ground for the Turkish army to work out new tactical methods in a real combat situation and to test new weapons of national development.
It is quite clear that with the presence of such "buns" Erdogan will not stop at Idlib alone and under the guise of the escalating chaos in the region of El-Lathamn and Kafr-Zit (here the main phase of artillery preparation finally began before the attack on the positions of pro-Turkish militants) focus on areas of Aleppo province where armored and infantry "bones" of the Syrian Arab Army are weakest due to the transfer of main units to the Idlib Gadyushnik line of contact to districts of Khal Faya, Hanan, Hader and Aleppo. "The first bells" of this development began to appear more 8 September. Then it became known that, in addition to conducting additional fortification work in the 12 areas of the observation posts of the Turkish army in Idlib, as well as strengthening these points with new military units to try to prevent an offensive from the government forces of Syria, the General Staff of Turkey began an urgent transfer of mechanized units to the area Azaz and Al-Baba to strengthen the forces of rebels of the Syrian Free Army (FSA). This tactical move can only talk about one thing - the preparation of Ankara and the FSA for taking the cities of Nubl, Az-Zahra, Tel-Rifat, Aleppo, Al-Kharab and Tadif into the “boiler”.
Thus, Erdogan will be able to solve two strategically important tasks at once - to capture the southern areas of the Afrin canton, which could not be beaten off in the spring due to operational actions of the Russian military police and pro-government militia, and also to take control of a huge segment of the Aleppo-Deir Hafer route This provides high efficiency of Syrian ground forces from Idlib to the bed of the Euphrates. The FSA forces ousting the Syrian army from this highway will practically prevent Damascus from controlling the center of the province of Aleppo and allow the pro-American SDF units deployed in Manbidge to quickly control the city of Al Hafsa. In this case, the joint plan of Washington and Turkey on the division of the territory on the west bank of the Euphrates may well be discussed, in which the Syrian Arab army will no longer have a place, knowingly weakened opposition to the Idlib militants, as well as a possible attack by the OVCS of the western coalition, which, although reduced to a minimum by the coordinated actions of the air defense systems of Syria and the Russian aircraft RLDN A-50U, it will not in the best way affect the combat capability of the government forces of the republic.
As for the beginnings of a possible escalation of hostilities in the area of Al-Bab, they appeared on the afternoon of September 9. Against the background of the arrival of Turkish reinforcements in this region, members of the Sultan Murad opposition-terrorist unit unexpectedly opened fire from the Fagot anti-tank missile system at the CAA border guard unit that is on combat duty at the Tadif contact line. This blatant case of aggression against Ankara forces against Syrian troops in the area suspiciously coincided with a confrontation between the CAA and the SDF near the airport of Kamyshly, which again makes us think about the advisability of continuing any interaction with Erdogan on the issue of Idlib, where the latter synchronizes again their actions with the States. Pleasantly pleased with the rhetoric of Vladimir Putin at the Tehran summit.
Based on it, we can speak about the inviolability of the position of the Russian-Iranian alliance on Idlib: Moscow will not give Erdogan’s thugs any chance of maintaining control of these lands. But the delay in offensive operations, which can be observed on the syria.liveuamap.com map, is unacceptable, because powerful Turkish convoys, represented by the main combat tanks The M60-T Mk II Sabra, the Kirpi armored vehicles, as well as the self-propelled M270 launchers of the HIMARS MLRS, continue to enter the province daily, compensating for the losses of the militants during the Russian air force’s missile bombing, which means breaking the resistance of the mixed Turkish-Islamic conglomerate it will be harder every day. Against this background, the comments of some of our Internet observers that “Erdogan gave the order to introduce Turkish troops to Idlib to split up the Tahrir al-Sham and the Islamic Party of Turkestan groups in order to facilitate the process of the Syrian army and the Russian air forces” look extremely ridiculous.
These systems will be used by the Turks exclusively to attack the advancing units of the regular Syrian army. Moreover, the urgent reports that yesterday came from overseas about Trump's consideration of the possibility of attacking Russian and Iranian military facilities, as well as about the receipt of further invented information by the American intelligence service on the alleged use of chlorine by the CAA, not only about the inevitable forceful decision Idlib mnogohodov ", but also that through the headquarters of NATO in Brussels and the headquarters of the coalition between all members of the alliance agreed tactics of action, providing a confrontation with the rocket rocket movement and. In this case, the main link in this unpredictable denouement at the initial stage will be Turkey, acting for the sake of the West.
Special attention should be paid to the recent statement by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which, according to Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, she fully supports the strategy of Moscow to eliminate "idlib gadyushnik."
The fact is that behind such indicative-friendly rhetoric of Berlin towards Russia there can be only one goal - positioning the Federal Republic of Germany as a much more acceptable and convenient partner than, for example, Turkey, which openly declares support for the Al-Nusra militants , The “Islamic Party of Turkestan” and other jihadist formations that keep Idlib under their control, contrary to the demand for the militants of the need to voluntarily lay down their arms and transfer the Idlib governorate under the control of government forces. With such a demand, Damascus and Moscow have repeatedly acted. So, in the evening of September 7, during the adoption of the declaration following the Tehran summit, Russian leader Vladimir Putin expressed the hope that "the terrorists in Idlib have enough sense to stop resistance and lay down their arms."
But what is the real reason that Merkel embarked on a tactic of cunning diplomatic "maneuvering", trying to win over the Kremlin with verbal support for the Russian action plan regarding Idlib? Here, everything rests on the increasingly likely conflict between NATO and Russia in the East European theater of operations, in which countries such as Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and some other European states will definitely take part with direct American support. Naturally, Russia can easily resort to such an “educational measure” as the cessation of gas supplies through the Urengoi-Uzhgorod branches, Yamal-Europe, or one of the branches, which can cause significant damage to the EU economy. At the same time, having trumps such as the “Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream” in its sleeve, Moscow may well think about the expediency of gas supplies through the Nord Stream-2 branches, i.e. to Germany. And here everything depends solely on the position and participation of Berlin in the coming conflict.
That is why Angela Merkel is now trying in every way to reduce tensions in relations between states, especially since at about the same time it became known about the build-up of the American military contingent at facilities in Grafenvoere, Ansbach and Hohenfels. Obviously, the German Chancellor is trying to sit on two chairs. The fears of the German leadership associated with the Russian gas embargo are not groundless. At the time of the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbas, when the EU and NATO member states openly declared support for the illegitimate and nationalistic Ukrainian regime, and Kiev refused to pay $ 1,95 billion in debt repayment, Gazprom transferred Naftogaz Ukrainy to prepay gas supplies, reducing the pressure on the branch only for pumping transit gas volumes to EU countries.
This situation was seriously alarmed by a group of scientists from the Institute for the Study of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne, who in July-August 2014 had modeled a “long-lasting” gas embargo on our part, which could be introduced in the event of a large-scale conflict in a European theater. The results of the prognostic work turned out to be disappointing: in just 6 months after the cessation of the supply of blue fuel, Germany will face a crisis of industrial production (approximately 3 billion cubic meters of gas will be lacking in this sector). This is the whole secret of “flirting” Berlin with Moscow on the issues of the release of the “Idlib gadyushnik”. When the moment comes, West Germany, like other US henchmen, without a twinge of conscience will stab Moscow in the back, allowing the Americans, for example, to deploy several fighter squadrons equipped with X-Numx generation F-5A machines, etc. . And what can we say here when literally a week after a portion of “noodles on the ears” from Merkel, the defense department of Germany, at the request of the White House, plunged into thinking about the participation of their “Typhoons” in the new treacherous campaign of “unipolar” in the Middle East!
Information sources:
http://rusvesna.su/news/1536559313
https://lenta.ru/news/2018/09/10/germany_syria/
https://www.dw.com/ru/
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