The “Idlib sled team” of the USA and Turkey is just the beginning. Preparing a blow to new directions

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Without a doubt, the two most anticipated geopolitical events of the past week, preliminarily exaggerated by literally every second eminent military-analytical publication, were the tripartite “Tehran Summit” with the participation of the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran, convened to find ways to resolve the situation in the province seized by militants Idlib, as well as an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, initiated by the British side in an attempt to once again unreasonably discredit Russia in terms of non-compliance with Conva tion on the Prohibition of Chemical weapons. In the last event, everything is extremely clear and predictable. In order to bring the isolation strategy of the West towards Moscow to a new level, providing for the introduction of additional “sanctions packages”, the case of Salisbury poisoning in Salisbury, already annoyed and boring even to the most meticulous journalists, was decided to give a new turn to the “game” of some characters: some Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Bashirov.



Despite the complete absence of Scotland Yard by the “innate investigators” of any convincing evidence of Russia's involvement in Skripale poisoning, as well as the frankly mocking and unfounded accusatory rhetoric of London, which prompted runet users to create a mass of memes and jokes about the “poisoners” of the former colonel GRU Sergey Skripal and his daughter Yulia, the delegations of the United States, Germany, France and Canada fully supported the fictitious version using the Novice nerve gas, which was successfully odvigaet headquarters of the police service in England by the British delegation to the UN Security Council. This means that pressure on our country will continue to grow steadily with the use of any delusional reasons, while the “case of poisoning in Salisbury” will acquire a status similar to the investigation of the so-called witch hunt in the United States, which is used by the White House in every geopolitical scam directed against Russia.

We will now move away from analyzing the intricacies of Germany's “diplomatic maneuvering” in the geopolitical arena and focus exclusively on the results of the trilateral “Tehran summit”, the consequences of “flirting” with Erdogan and the military-political specifics of the start of a large-scale operation to clean up the “Idlib gadyushnik”. This summit has become another personification of a rather tangible ideological split within the "Syrian troika". If Hassan Rouhani and Vladimir Putin are firm supporters of the immediate suppression of the fortified areas of the Tahrir al-Sham and the Islamic Party of Turkestan, Jaysh Izza, Popular Liberation Front, etc. (terrorist organizations are prohibited in the Russian Federation ), and then the restoration of Syrian sovereignty over the liberated regions of the provinces of Idlib, Latakia, Hama and Aleppo, then Turkish President Recep Erdogan by all his actions proves that the presence of pro-Turkish militants in this region is a paramount item on the list of Ankara's interests.

As a result, in the matter of protecting its "tame terrorists" Turkey will go to the end, and even in the same team with Washington. That is why chlorine tanks, as well as the MLRS launcher with unguided missiles, the head parts of which are adapted for installing chlorine liners, were delivered to Jisr al-Shugur completely unhindered, despite the fact that in this city (near the highway M4) is an observation / strong point of NE of Turkey. Conclusion: Erdogan today has the same degree of interest in implementing a provocation using chlorine and a further massive missile attack on the CAA, like Washington.

As we have repeatedly noted in our previous reviews, this is due to Ankara’s great military-political and economic interest in preserving the “idlib bridgehead”. First, for several years now, this region has been used by the Turkish General Staff as a "southern assault fist", which in the foreseeable future may well be used to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the eastern operational direction, the aim of which is to re-seize the southern and central regions. the provinces of Aleppo, long vending to the current leadership of Turkey. Secondly, it is a stable trade in arms, drugs, fuel and even energy, established between the Turkish side and the numerous Islamist paramilitary groups that control Idlib. Thirdly, it is the use of the line of contact between the militants ’controlled areas of Idlib and the territory controlled by the CAA as a testing ground for the Turkish army to work out new tactical methods in a real combat situation and to test new weapons of national development.

It is quite clear that with the presence of such "buns" Erdogan will not stop at Idlib alone and under the guise of the escalating chaos in the region of El-Lathamn and Kafr-Zit (here the main phase of artillery preparation finally began before the attack on the positions of pro-Turkish militants) focus on areas of Aleppo province where armored and infantry "bones" of the Syrian Arab Army are weakest due to the transfer of main units to the Idlib Gadyushnik line of contact to districts of Khal Faya, Hanan, Hader and Aleppo. "The first bells" of this development began to appear more 8 September. Then it became known that, in addition to conducting additional fortification work in the 12 areas of the observation posts of the Turkish army in Idlib, as well as strengthening these points with new military units to try to prevent an offensive from the government forces of Syria, the General Staff of Turkey began an urgent transfer of mechanized units to the area Azaz and Al-Baba to strengthen the forces of rebels of the Syrian Free Army (FSA). This tactical move can only talk about one thing - the preparation of Ankara and the FSA for taking the cities of Nubl, Az-Zahra, Tel-Rifat, Aleppo, Al-Kharab and Tadif into the “boiler”.

Thus, Erdogan will be able to solve two strategically important tasks at once - to capture the southern areas of the Afrin canton, which could not be beaten off in the spring due to operational actions of the Russian military police and pro-government militia, and also to take control of a huge segment of the Aleppo-Deir Hafer route This provides high efficiency of Syrian ground forces from Idlib to the bed of the Euphrates. The FSA forces ousting the Syrian army from this highway will practically prevent Damascus from controlling the center of the province of Aleppo and allow the pro-American SDF units deployed in Manbidge to quickly control the city of Al Hafsa. In this case, the joint plan of Washington and Turkey on the division of the territory on the west bank of the Euphrates may well be discussed, in which the Syrian Arab army will no longer have a place, knowingly weakened opposition to the Idlib militants, as well as a possible attack by the OVCS of the western coalition, which, although reduced to a minimum by the coordinated actions of the air defense systems of Syria and the Russian aircraft RLDN A-50U, it will not in the best way affect the combat capability of the government forces of the republic.

As for the beginnings of a possible escalation of hostilities in the area of ​​Al-Bab, they appeared on the afternoon of September 9. Against the background of the arrival of Turkish reinforcements in this region, members of the Sultan Murad opposition-terrorist unit unexpectedly opened fire from the Fagot anti-tank missile system at the CAA border guard unit that is on combat duty at the Tadif contact line. This blatant case of aggression against Ankara forces against Syrian troops in the area suspiciously coincided with a confrontation between the CAA and the SDF near the airport of Kamyshly, which again makes us think about the advisability of continuing any interaction with Erdogan on the issue of Idlib, where the latter synchronizes again their actions with the States. Pleasantly pleased with the rhetoric of Vladimir Putin at the Tehran summit.

Based on it, we can speak about the inviolability of the position of the Russian-Iranian alliance on Idlib: Moscow will not give Erdogan’s thugs any chance of maintaining control of these lands. But the delay in offensive operations, which can be observed on the syria.liveuamap.com map, is unacceptable, because powerful Turkish convoys, represented by the main combat tanks The M60-T Mk II Sabra, the Kirpi armored vehicles, as well as the self-propelled M270 launchers of the HIMARS MLRS, continue to enter the province daily, compensating for the losses of the militants during the Russian air force’s missile bombing, which means breaking the resistance of the mixed Turkish-Islamic conglomerate it will be harder every day. Against this background, the comments of some of our Internet observers that “Erdogan gave the order to introduce Turkish troops to Idlib to split up the Tahrir al-Sham and the Islamic Party of Turkestan groups in order to facilitate the process of the Syrian army and the Russian air forces” look extremely ridiculous.



These systems will be used by the Turks exclusively to attack the advancing units of the regular Syrian army. Moreover, the urgent reports that yesterday came from overseas about Trump's consideration of the possibility of attacking Russian and Iranian military facilities, as well as about the receipt of further invented information by the American intelligence service on the alleged use of chlorine by the CAA, not only about the inevitable forceful decision Idlib mnogohodov ", but also that through the headquarters of NATO in Brussels and the headquarters of the coalition between all members of the alliance agreed tactics of action, providing a confrontation with the rocket rocket movement and. In this case, the main link in this unpredictable denouement at the initial stage will be Turkey, acting for the sake of the West.

Special attention should be paid to the recent statement by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which, according to Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, she fully supports the strategy of Moscow to eliminate "idlib gadyushnik."

The fact is that behind such indicative-friendly rhetoric of Berlin towards Russia there can be only one goal - positioning the Federal Republic of Germany as a much more acceptable and convenient partner than, for example, Turkey, which openly declares support for the Al-Nusra militants , The “Islamic Party of Turkestan” and other jihadist formations that keep Idlib under their control, contrary to the demand for the militants of the need to voluntarily lay down their arms and transfer the Idlib governorate under the control of government forces. With such a demand, Damascus and Moscow have repeatedly acted. So, in the evening of September 7, during the adoption of the declaration following the Tehran summit, Russian leader Vladimir Putin expressed the hope that "the terrorists in Idlib have enough sense to stop resistance and lay down their arms."

But what is the real reason that Merkel embarked on a tactic of cunning diplomatic "maneuvering", trying to win over the Kremlin with verbal support for the Russian action plan regarding Idlib? Here, everything rests on the increasingly likely conflict between NATO and Russia in the East European theater of operations, in which countries such as Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and some other European states will definitely take part with direct American support. Naturally, Russia can easily resort to such an “educational measure” as the cessation of gas supplies through the Urengoi-Uzhgorod branches, Yamal-Europe, or one of the branches, which can cause significant damage to the EU economy. At the same time, having trumps such as the “Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream” in its sleeve, Moscow may well think about the expediency of gas supplies through the Nord Stream-2 branches, i.e. to Germany. And here everything depends solely on the position and participation of Berlin in the coming conflict.

That is why Angela Merkel is now trying in every way to reduce tensions in relations between states, especially since at about the same time it became known about the build-up of the American military contingent at facilities in Grafenvoere, Ansbach and Hohenfels. Obviously, the German Chancellor is trying to sit on two chairs. The fears of the German leadership associated with the Russian gas embargo are not groundless. At the time of the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbas, when the EU and NATO member states openly declared support for the illegitimate and nationalistic Ukrainian regime, and Kiev refused to pay $ 1,95 billion in debt repayment, Gazprom transferred Naftogaz Ukrainy to prepay gas supplies, reducing the pressure on the branch only for pumping transit gas volumes to EU countries.

This situation was seriously alarmed by a group of scientists from the Institute for the Study of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne, who in July-August 2014 had modeled a “long-lasting” gas embargo on our part, which could be introduced in the event of a large-scale conflict in a European theater. The results of the prognostic work turned out to be disappointing: in just 6 months after the cessation of the supply of blue fuel, Germany will face a crisis of industrial production (approximately 3 billion cubic meters of gas will be lacking in this sector). This is the whole secret of “flirting” Berlin with Moscow on the issues of the release of the “Idlib gadyushnik”. When the moment comes, West Germany, like other US henchmen, without a twinge of conscience will stab Moscow in the back, allowing the Americans, for example, to deploy several fighter squadrons equipped with X-Numx generation F-5A machines, etc. . And what can we say here when literally a week after a portion of “noodles on the ears” from Merkel, the defense department of Germany, at the request of the White House, plunged into thinking about the participation of their “Typhoons” in the new treacherous campaign of “unipolar” in the Middle East!

Information sources:
http://rusvesna.su/news/1536559313
https://lenta.ru/news/2018/09/10/germany_syria/
https://www.dw.com/ru/
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25 comments
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  1. +3
    11 September 2018 06: 18
    In short, so many contradictions have accumulated that the solution lies only in cutting this "Gordian" knot. delaying mine is already playing into the hands of the Yankees. plus turns into minus.
    1. -1
      11 September 2018 08: 04
      The Americans can print as many dollars as they want, while collapsing the currencies of the rest of the parties to the conflict and pushing them out of international markets, preventing them from earning currency there and at the same time dragging out the situation in Syria for as long as possible - without much difference, time works for them. I remember how McCain was happily rubbing his hands when Russia got into the Syrian trap - he said that this conflict would ruin Russia in the end and cause popular unrest there, forcing Putin to leave - "the claw is bogged down and the whole bird is lost."
      1. +1
        11 September 2018 08: 43
        Quote: ilimnoz
        so many contradictions accumulated

        No contradictions, they are trying to squeeze Russia out of Syria, and not only the USA, but also the Turks. This contour of geopolitical interests, if you remember, was still at the very beginning of the company. Because of this, the Turks even shot down our plane.
        After that, however, Putin managed to pull Erdogan to his side with numerous gifts. But, when the gifts were over, Erdogan again remembered his geopolitical interests.
        For the Kremlin, the situation is nowhere worse, the West is threatening to bomb not only Assad, and Turkey’s temporary ally, as it very quickly found itself on the other side, despite the fact that Idlib can not be delayed.
        That is why the GDP is pushing negotiations with the Turks, desperately trying to get them back on the right side.
        1. +3
          11 September 2018 09: 56
          VVP's biggest mistake was saving Erdogan during the coup. If it had been removed then, Turkey would have plunged into the "orange revolution", which would have ended either with a new arrival of the military or with a general civil chaos in which the Turks would certainly have no time for Syria. So, now we are reaping the fruits of the next HSP ... The funny thing is that this is a dead end from which there is no "painless way out" in the form of maintaining the "territorial integrity of Syria." ...
          1. +1
            11 September 2018 11: 15
            Or a new "Islamic State" under which the whole of Turkey would be - that's why they were saved.
          2. -2
            13 September 2018 17: 15
            In the event of the death of R. Erdogan, Turkey would completely come under US control with all the consequences and there would be no revolution. R. Erdogan acts in his own interests, like everyone else, therefore it is necessary to find a compromise. The author of the article takes one-sidedly the actions of Turkey, not taking into account the whole situation in Syria and especially with the Kurdish issue. Of course, the United States bothers and throws buns to R. Erdogan, but he has already been taught and acts with caution ... According to Idlib, Turkey will protect the Turkomans in every possible way, and the widespread military operations in Idlib are strategically premature, with pointy attacks of particularly greyhounds and dangerous ones and it is necessary, justifying reasonably such attacks ....
        2. 0
          11 September 2018 13: 24
          Quote: Stas157
          Quote: ilimnoz
          so many contradictions accumulated
          No contradictions, they are trying to squeeze Russia out of Syria, and not only the USA, but also the Turks. This contour of geopolitical interests, if you remember, was still at the very beginning of the company. Because of this, the Turks even shot down our plane.
          After that, however, Putin managed to pull Erdogan to his side with numerous gifts. But, when the gifts were over, Erdogan again remembered his geopolitical interests.


          The bomber is real there. Tangle of poisonous reptiles
  2. +2
    11 September 2018 06: 22
    Yes, politics is a dirty business, but not to the same extent, although if you recall the events of the first half of the 20th century, then all sorts of questions disappear by themselves! The only surprise is how our politicians and diplomats (it is not clear from what motives) call our most ardent enemies "partners" - a cheater will never be a partner, he will only be a cheat and nothing else! It's time for our leadership to take off their "rose-colored glasses" and stop believing vile liars and swindlers, for whom the main goal was and remains the complete destruction of Russia! And the Turks have never been and will never be our friends! It's time to once again remember the words of Emperor Alexander that "... Russia has two allies - the Army and the Navy ..."!
  3. +11
    11 September 2018 06: 39
    Whatever article the author has, all is lost. Something I do not remember a single true forecast for this analyst ....
  4. +5
    11 September 2018 06: 55
    It’s not just an article, but a whole report of the General Staff. It is necessary, however, to make small corrections to the discussion. Firstly, there is no and cannot be any flirting with Turkey. But there is a reality based on the fact that the interests of the parties do not always coincide, sometimes even contradict each other. For this reason, it is necessary to join temporary alliances. Secondly, Russia is sorely lacking time to strengthen its defense capabilities and economy, all the more so now it has to be done mainly with reliance on its own forces. And here, desires, alas! do not match capabilities.
  5. 0
    11 September 2018 07: 06
    Turkish President Recep Erdogan with all his actions proves that the presence of pro-Turkish militants in this region is a paramount item in Ankara’s list of interests.

    How long have you got this Cossack? Two weeks? And now, figure out what happened during that time. Ilyuha Kosogo's hundred ran into an ambush. By chance, you say? They sent to the old farmhouse for bread - not a grain, as by agreement. And the fact that the pestilence between the horses passed, they watered with poisoned water. The Cossack sent to you ... a scout.
    1. 0
      11 September 2018 08: 55
      Quote: parusnik
      Your Cossack sent ... scout.

      Erdogan can be mishandled by a Cossack only among Syria, Iran, and Russia. Why should the Turks have such allies, because they have always been enemies. But for the USA and the West - Erdogan is on his own board, the interests are the same!
      1. +1
        11 September 2018 12: 09
        Quote: Stas157
        But for the USA and the West - Erdogan is on his own board, the interests are the same!

        Erdogan is a Pawnee Indian for the Big White Father, I remind you that the Pawnee is a tribe that the White fought against other Indians, Sioux, Dakota and others on the great plain, they were armed, helped, but then they presented blankets to smallpox patients. Smallpox for an Indian is absolutely deadly.
        One interest at all - oil, the topic of oil as a topic of sex - everyone thinks about it, but try not to talk
      2. 0
        11 September 2018 22: 14
        Stas157 (Stas)
        Erdogan can be mishandled by a Cossack only among Syria, Iran, and Russia.
        ... This is exactly what I meant ... And to be honest, the Russia-Turkey-Iran alliance ... is historically unnatural ... Turkey and Iran fought a lot with each other in the past, Russia fought with Turkey and Iran. .If relations with Iran improved in the 19th century and beyond, then they fought with Turkey in the 20th century and for a long time relations were cool .., until recently .. All these types of "anti-American" statements by Turkey, these are just "offenses" of the younger partner, the relationship of the elder to him, no more ... Erdogan, will do more dirty tricks ... Russian and Turks, brothers for a century ... I am at a loss ...
  6. +1
    11 September 2018 08: 49
    I read the first paragraph, recognized the unique style of the author, immediately flipped to the end, my instinct did not disappoint. Gentlemen, what is all lost again? Gypsum removed?
    1. -1
      11 September 2018 18: 59
      And where does the style. Or do you have a different opinion about these events?
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. 0
    11 September 2018 08: 50
    . stable trade in arms, drugs, fuel and lubricants and even energy resources, established between the Turkish side and the numerous Islamic militarized groups controlling Idlib

    It's hard to believe that all this can happen at the state level. Directly a terrorist country. In my opinion, everything here is "far-fetched"
    1. +5
      11 September 2018 09: 16
      Quote: igorbrsv
      . stable trade in arms, drugs, fuel and lubricants and even energy resources, established between the Turkish side and the numerous Islamic militarized groups controlling Idlib

      It's hard to believe that all this can happen at the state level. Directly a terrorist country. In my opinion, everything here is "far-fetched"

      And remember, when Russia 24 every day showed the Igil-Turkey oil convoys, how they stigmatized this shameful family business of Erdogan, were outraged that Turkey is an accomplice of terrorists, provides supplies and organizes camps for training bandits, and sells human organs? Then all at once suddenly everything went down and Erdogan became a bosom friend! Do you think this Erdogan has changed?
  9. 0
    11 September 2018 09: 24
    The fact is that behind such demonstratively friendly rhetoric of Berlin with respect to Russia, there can be only one goal - positioning the FRG as a much more acceptable and convenient partner than, for example, Turkey, which openly declares its support for al-Nusra militants , The Islamic Party of Turkestan and other jihadist groups that keep Idlib under their control, contrary to the demand for militants to voluntarily lay down their arms and transfer Idlib governorate under the control of government forces.
    laughing It is of course very nice that we are changing partners so much, only the author has forgotten a small detail - Turkey borders Idlib, and its troops are at the ready, and the FRG is far, far from it, so all this positioning is in the forest.
    Although the phrase, of course the author’s beautiful one, came up with no questions, such speeches should be made in the British Parliament, in the House of Lords good
  10. +5
    11 September 2018 09: 50
    Did not even read to the end, a dreary article. I know only one thing - the Barmalei must be beaten, beaten and beaten, until they are completely destroyed. And those who scramble to protect them, too. We did not finish the reptiles in Ukraine, the result is with us, everyone has it before our eyes. No need to leave unfinished business, especially the political plan.
  11. 0
    11 September 2018 11: 43
    Quote: Ros 56
    Did not even read to the end, a dreary article. I know only one thing - the Barmalei must be beaten, beaten and beaten, until they are completely destroyed. And those who scramble to protect them, too. We did not finish the reptiles in Ukraine, the result is with us, everyone has it before our eyes. No need to leave unfinished business, especially the political plan.

    Alas, as long as money rules the world, all this is a war with windmills.
  12. 0
    11 September 2018 14: 13
    But how many absurd articles were here before in VO that expressed naive thoughts that Turkey was in Syria in order to keep the Kurds, that the Turks would interfere with the Americans because they supported the Kurds, that Erdogan understood everything and that Putin pressed him to the fingernail of the tomato and resort embargo, which is between the US and Turkey due to the Russian S-400. Naive blind people! In fact, what we see: the Kurds are no longer wetting the Turks, but Assad’s government troops at the behest of the Americans, and the Turks are not touching the Kurds since those are under the protection of the Americans, and Turkey has introduced troops in order not to oppose the Kurds, but to oppose Assad’s troops and prevent the sweeping of Idlib.
    Assad has only two allies - Russia and Iran, the rest are all who are there - they are all against Assad, because each of them is Turkey, the United States and everything else Nato, and the entire Syrian opposition, and all the terrorists - they all want either a piece of Syria, or they’re just fighting for money to prevent the unification of Syria under Assad’s rule - that means they are all against Assad, which means they will all interfere with Russia by all means.
    And everyone who thought that Turkey would involuntarily help Russia in the Syrian conflict, because Turkey is against the Kurds supported by the United States, then open your eyes at last - starting from the 18th century, the West set up and used Turkey against Russia. When Turkey had imperial ambitions, it, with the support of the West, tried to expand its borders, including at the expense of Russian territories, and when imperial ambitions dried up, Turkey simply began to dream of becoming a part of civilized Europe, Turkey does not want to be part of BRICS, Turkey wants be a part of Europe! So no need to cheat. Turkey can make small concessions to Russia, it can even buy Russian S-400s for Russian money ..., some kind of relationship, some kind of business between our countries has always been and will be, but at the most crucial moment Turkey will always choose the West . This must be understood.
    1. 0
      11 September 2018 19: 03
      0
      But how long before that there were absurd articles on the VO that expressed naive thoughts that Turkey was in Syria in order to keep the Kurds, that the Turks would interfere with the Americans because they support the Kurds,

      But they remained, only quieted down, there are no arguments to refute.
  13. 0
    11 September 2018 19: 47
    into the bushes ... or

    Idlib is located at the key intersection of Latakia - Aleppo - Hama. If the eastern border of conditional Alavistan is denoted by the Aleppo-Homs line, then Idlib is in its center. Assad will not be able to leave such a time bomb on his doorstep, even under threat. Therefore, my personal subjective opinion is to throw it.
  14. 0
    12 September 2018 00: 04
    An idyllic adder with geopolitical games in his own selfish interests is more and more drawing Turkey, the USA, small-shavens and Macron to new meannesses.

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