The main defender of the militants Idlib - Mr. Erdogan?

According to Hurriyet, in recent days there has been a massive transfer of Turkish military forces, including a lot of military equipment, to areas adjacent to northern Syria, and to the so-called idlib de-escalation zone. At the same time, the Syrian government’s air forces are already delivering airstrikes on the positions of militants of the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham and Turkestan Islamic Party groups that are banned in the Russian Federation, located in the area of ​​the town of Jisr Ash-Shugur in the same Idlib enclave.

However, it has not yet come down to major military operations, which is probably related to the opening of the international summit on Syria on the 7 of September of the 2018 of September.

According to the UN, and according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, in addition to 3 million civilians, from 10 to 30, thousands of militants representing various anti-government groups are concentrated in the idlib de-escalation zone in the north of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Turkish military contingents enter areas of Northern Syria

Recently, however, Turkey has been the main opponent of the joint plan of the offensive by the government forces of Syria and the Russian VKS against this Islamist enclave. That is, a state that suffered a financial blow from the United States and recently exposed itself almost as Russia's main ally in the Middle East is now ready to help militants concentrated in Idlib with military force?

Why did this happen? Let's try to figure it out.

As we remember, after a series of successful offensive operations carried out recently by the Syrian government army, a new strategic goal was set - the elimination of the “idlib gadyushnik”, a huge enclave of armed opposition in the north-west of the country. It is the Ilib de-escalation zone that is one of the last strongholds of the Islamists in the Syrian Arab Republic. It was there that many armies of the “armed opposition” were moved from those areas that came under the control of Damascus in recent months thanks to the successful joint operations of the Syrian troops, the Iranian and Lebanese Shiite contingents, as well as the Russian VKS and MTR.

Our country, as you know, actively supports the desire of the legitimate Syrian government to close the issue with the militants from among the "armed opposition" in general. The position of Iran and Lebanon on this issue roughly corresponds to the position of the government of Bashar Assad. However, the UN, Western countries in general, and the United States in particular, are strongly opposed (although the question about the areas of Eastern Syria occupied by Kurds under Washington has not even been raised yet). Recently, this “chorus of peacemakers” unexpectedly joined Turkey, which only recently suffered from American economic laws. Well, let's try to figure out how this could happen.

Argument # XXUMX: the likelihood of another humanitarian catastrophe and a new migration crisis

In principle, the concerns of the countries of the European Union, the United Nations and Turkey over the new wave of migration can be considered justified. Indeed, the idlib de-escalation zone covers some of the most densely populated areas of Syria, where at least 3 million people live (and with the account of the refugees, perhaps much more).

The main defender of the militants Idlib - Mr. Erdogan?

Militants of the Tahrir ash-Sham group (banned in the Russian Federation) in the idlib de-escalation zone

However, we recall that when the forces of the international coalition led by the United States launched their offensive in the area of ​​Mosul and Raqqah, which caused a humanitarian catastrophe of enormous proportions (tens of thousands of civilian casualties and, according to various estimates, from 0,8 million to 2 million refugees ), for some reason, they did not consult with anyone on this issue and preferred not to notice the persistent recommendations from Damascus and Moscow to act more gently and selectively.

Further, let us remind ourselves that, in addition to civilians, the Idlib enclave is full of various groups of Islamic radicals, including those recognized by the international community as terrorist, and the number of militants there amounts to tens of thousands. This information was confirmed by the special envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Syria, Jan Egeland.

Of course, the idlib de-escalation zone is one of those regions of Syria that Russia, Iran and the same Turkey agreed upon during negotiations with a number of Syrian opposition groups in Astana. However, these agreements do not apply to terrorists and extreme extremists, and since these "comrades" are present in the above-mentioned zone in more than "commodity quantities", Damascus has the full right to conduct an offensive operation in this area.

It is clear that this operation will really cause a huge new wave of refugees, who, based on the geographical position of Idlib, will be forced to go only to Turkey. Since there are, according to various estimates, from 3,5 to 5 million Syrian refugees, the new wave from at least 1 million people will turn into a new migration nightmare for Turkey and for Europe.

Military presence of various parties to the conflict in Syria (position at the beginning of September 2018)

Proceeding from this, in order not to provoke a new humanitarian crisis, Ankara is trying with all its might to dissuade Moscow, Tehran and Damascus from an offensive in the northern regions of Syria. And it can be said that for this 7 September 2018 is convened by Recep Tayyip Erdogan an international summit with the participation of Russia, France, Germany and other countries. The main topics of the talks are the prevention of a humanitarian catastrophe, the restoration of the Syrian economy and civilian infrastructure, as well as the related problem of the return of refugees. Also, without a doubt, one of the key issues will be the trilateral talks Russia-Iran-Turkey on the problems of military cooperation, as well as relations with other external players in the Persian field.

Argument # 2: the need for Turkey to create a spatial "strategic depth" as a factor against the Kurds

Of course, besides humanitarian issues related to refugees, there are several other reasons why Ankara takes an extremely sharp position regarding the military-strategic plans of Damascus, Moscow and Tehran. In particular, based on the agreements reached in Astana, the Turks created several military bases and many observation and fortification points in Northern Syria, “staking out” thereby their zone of influence and the zone of their strategic interests.

In addition, the Turkish leadership has dense and long-standing ties with a number of radical groups (mainly included in the so-called "National Front for the Liberation of Syria"). Moreover, Ankara has a very ambivalent (in contrast to Damascus, Moscow and Tehran) attitude to the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham group dominant in the Idlib zone, which, as we know, is the rebranding of Al-Nusra (both groups are prohibited in Russia ).

In particular, the government of Erdogan, apparently, plans to negotiate with all participants in the process, including the former "An-Nusrovtsy" themselves, about their peaceful transition to the camp of "moderate opposition" or even about the surrender of at least heavy weapons by the militants of this group. According to the Turkish plan, foreigners in the ranks of Hayat Tahrir should be given the opportunity to freely return to their countries, and the most radical representatives of this group should be given the opportunity to evacuate into a vast semi-desert zone at the junction of the borders of Syria, Jordan and Iraq, where there is one more major an enclave of anti-government forces.

In addition, for Ankara it is very important to have a “strategic spatial depth” in the north of Syria as a strategic argument against the Kurds who occupied the huge northeastern regions of this long-suffering country. The fact is that, judging by some data, recently, Moscow, Damascus and Tehran have been negotiating with some influential Kurdish politicians, led by the Peshmerga armed militia. Apparently, Russia primarily (after its consent to the occupation of Iraqi forces under the leadership of the United States of Northern Iraq, which put an end to the already existing independent Kurdistan), seeks to restore its reputation in the face of the Kurds and once again strengthen its influence on this people.

Militants of one of the "armed opposition" groups in the idlib enclave

According to some assumptions, in exchange for the peaceful return of a number of Syrian regions, the alliance of Moscow, Damascus and Tehran will agree to the formation of a Kurdish state in the remaining territories. And Turkey, as is known, has always been and is the main opponent of the creation of Kurdish statehood. And the formation of a Kurdish republic in northeastern Syria will entail the likelihood of a number of areas out of Ankara’s power within the Turkish borders themselves.

In addition, there is a logical assumption that in the event of a peaceful and mutually beneficial solution of the Kurdish issue in Northeastern Syria, the militia forces of this belligerent people, along with Syrian government troops, can be involved in eliminating the centers that remain under the control of the militants in the east and southeast of this country .

Without a doubt, the idee fixe of the B. Assad government is the desire to liberate the entire territory of the state from a foreign military presence, but objective political realities can lead to a conclusion between Ankara, Damascus and the Kurds of a certain modus vivendi, which will finally extinguish the flames of war in these lands.

Likely scenarios

On the one hand, the aspiration of the B. Assad government for the complete liberation of the entire territory of its country, and not only from the “armed opposition” of various stripes, but also from the presence of Turks and Kurds, is supported by Moscow and partly by Tehran. However, the strategic interests of Turkey in Northern Syria are very large, which means that just because R.T. Erdogan will not leave there.

Accordingly, in the case of a forceful development of the situation without taking into account Turkish interests, there is a great chance of an armed conflict between Turkey and the militant forces of the Idlib enclave, on the one hand, and the government army of Syria, Russian videoconferencing forces and, possibly, Shiite detachments from Iran and Lebanon. As we remember, there is already a precedent for such a clash, and neither Ankara nor Moscow are interested in such a scenario.

Mr. Erdogan and his headquarters are guided by historical example of lord palmerston

The situation is complicated even more by the presence of at least 12 strongholds erected by Turkey in the idlib de-escalation zone in which Turkish troops are deployed. Accordingly, while the Erdogan government does not give an indication of the withdrawal of forces, a military offensive on the area from the side of Damascus and its allies is almost impossible (except for targeted air strikes that have already begun).

It is difficult to say which decision the parties will come to at the opening September 7 September. Ankara, for its part, has already taken a number of steps with respect to the forces of the idlib “armed opposition” under its control. In particular, small groups of “moderates” were merged into one political platform, and the members of “Haiti Tahrir ash-Sham” received agreement even to start negotiations.

Note that, despite the obvious weakness in military terms in front of the Syrian, Iranian and Russian alliance, the government of R.T. Erdogan has very serious strategic interests in the region, which it will try to defend by all available methods.

Let us hope that the upcoming negotiations will lead to mutually beneficial agreements between key players, as a result of which the forces of international Islamic terrorism, still remaining in Syria, will be dealt a decisive blow.
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  1. +1
    6 September 2018 15: 19
    And who is the yellowish "Syrian democratic forces" on the map?
    1. +1
      6 September 2018 16: 16
      Quote: amateur2
      And who is the yellowish "Syrian democratic forces" on the map?

      Mostly Kurds, as well as those who are fighting with ISIS on the side of the Kurds.
  2. +1
    6 September 2018 15: 34
    However, Turkey’s strategic interests in northern Syria are very large, which means that R. T. Erdogan will not leave
    ... However, they let Erdogan into the garden ... Without a cabbage crop, he won’t leave ...
  3. -1
    6 September 2018 15: 53
    All who are uninvited at home, but they are hosted. And the owner will figure it out with his domestic problems.
  4. +1
    6 September 2018 18: 15
    Idlib - finish off, Kurdish autonomy - create. Under her cover from the Turks - enter the American zone of presence. Otherwise, why was all this?
    And yes, to excite the Kurdish areas in Turkey as much as possible, even to secession, so that the Turks understand that the Ottoman Empire will no longer be.
    1. 0
      7 September 2018 21: 57
      there are no resources for this plan only.
  5. +2
    6 September 2018 20: 37
    And yesterday, everything around
    Talked Recep friend
    Recep our Turkish friend
  6. -1
    6 September 2018 21: 55
    Erdogan is still far from the United States.
    1. 0
      7 September 2018 21: 56
      just a few hours by plane
  7. 0
    7 September 2018 21: 55
    Well, the summit ended. eventually adopted the turkish version. there will be no offensive, at least for now. Russia and Iran have nothing to offer the Turks in return for an idlib (the Tel-Rifat is clearly not worth an idlib), but it’s just not a snap to ride here. Apparently, Erdogan made it clear that he was ready to stand up for the opposition and that the war with the Turkish troops was not included in either our or Iranian plans. Especially Assad on such a decision.
    Erdogan is trying to translate the war into a political solution - into the elections under the supervision of the United Nations. but such an option can not suit the other side, because in fact, now there are more Syrians under the patronage of Erdogan than under the control of Assad and the prospects for the current official authorities of Syria in the case of more or less honest elections are not very bright.
    1. 0
      9 September 2018 01: 52
      Quote: protoss
      eventually adopted the Turkish version. offensive, at least for now, will not. Russia and Iran have nothing to offer to the Turks in return for Idlib

      Alexander, in the first place, what exactly was accepted, we do not know, because the real info is not yet available.

      Secondly, and who was going to give Erdogan something in exchange for Idlib? Comrade Sultan himself "harnessed" for him (see my article on this topic), so ...

      Quote: protoss
      but just not cheating here. apparently
      A couple of years of Russia's "real" participation in the war in Syria allows us to say that it was just the normal use of force that made it possible to change the situation radically.

      Quote: protoss
      The war with the Turkish troops is not in our or Iranian plans. Especially Assad on this will not be solved.
      Well, in general, Erdogan does not dare to do this, he then knows how the shooting down of a Russian plane backfired on him. And Shiite Tehran is always ready, if anything, to "punish" Sunni Ankara ... (they will remember everything, up to the Ottoman-Iranian wars of the 16th century).

      Quote: protoss
      in fact, there are more Syrians under the patronage of Erdogan than under Assad's control
      This is how, could not clarify?
      1. 0
        10 September 2018 12: 38
        accepted the Turkish one - there will be no offensive and there will not be, some sheds will bomb a little, they will say on TV that the terrorists who sent the quadrocopters to the hakeim are destroyed, they will reward someone for the victory and the militaristic fumes will be blown off.
        secondly, yes, Erdogan needs to be given something in return, it doesn’t work differently, analyze the history of the issue a little and realize that I’m right.
        "normal use of force" is beneficial against guerrillas on Toyota, and can be sharply negative against the regular forces of a major NATO member country. everyone understands this, which is why big guys meet with each other, more often than with relatives.
        Erdogan couldn’t dare to do such a thing, he then knows what the shooting down of the Russian plane came to him with

        reproach regge for indecision is bold enough. his entire political career shows that he is ready to go all-in and play on the edge (while he always has everything calculated).
        knocking down the drying especially did not come back to him, he confirmed by action that crossing certain lines is fraught. yes, tourism and tomatoes have suffered somewhat. but the "tomato war" is such a consolation prize for us so that we think how harshly the Turks were punished (something like "just not into the thorn bush"). in reality, the question is 250-300 million dollars per year (not significant money for Turkey).
        And Shiite Tehran is always ready, if anything, to "punish" Sunni Ankara ... (they will remember everything, up to the Ottoman-Iranian wars of the 16th century)

        there is no enmity and insoluble contradictions between Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey, moreover, these countries have long and successfully cooperated economically, the Turkish-Iranian Council has been working at the highest level for many years. and not in the Iranian situation with Turkey butting, such a gift to the states and Israel will never be.
        could you clarify?

        could, in one of the discussions here on in I wrote:
        now in the "Turkish zone" - Idlib, Afrin, Azaz-Jarablus is home to about 6 million people.
        in Turkey itself there are about 3 million Syrians. total 9 million
        in the "American zone" 1,5-2 million people.
        this is already half the pre-war population of Syria.
        despite the fact that another 3 million went to Europe, Lebanon, Jordan and sa.
        400-600 thousand people died during the war years (there, for obvious reasons, it is difficult to make accurate estimates).
        As a result, millions of 8-9 remain on the territory under control of the territory.
        1. 0
          11 September 2018 23: 46
          Quote: protoss
          accepted Turkish - there is no offensive, and there will not be

          Well, how to say, they accepted a certain compromise - first try the apparently Turkish version, therefore they offered peace and surrender to a number of groups. Let's see what will happen and what will happen if you do not give up.

          Quote: protoss
          "normal use of force" is beneficial against guerrillas on Toyota, and can be sharply negative against the regular forces of a major NATO member country.

          ISIS had quite an army that successfully carried out the regular Assad forces, so do not underestimate it. And no one was going to fight with Turkey. And if there is a serious batch, then NATO has already shown how it wants to defend it, and you seriously think that the Turks will stand against our troops?

          Quote: protoss
          knocking down the drying didn’t bother him with anything, he confirmed by the action that the intersection of certain lines is fraught. Yes, tourism and tomatoes suffered a little.

          I will say it briefly and simply - you do not have information and you argue like a common man in the street. I can't say everything here, but briefly - the Turks literally washed themselves with blood for the shooting down of our plane. They just don't talk about it, but they had losses among the military, among civilians, and in military equipment. It doesn't matter how, but it was, and Erdogan and the clan understand where it came from and for what. "The tomato war" is complete nonsense, just to divert your eyes. Or do you think that the neosultan just rushed to Moscow three times? The Russians did not even annex the property of Turkish holdings in the Russian Federation, they managed with special operations ...

          Quote: protoss
          there is no animosity and insoluble contradictions between Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey, moreover, these countries have been successfully and economically cooperating for a long time,

          Yah ?!? Events in recent years, 500 suggests that there are still such contradictions! And economic interaction - all countries have it, but today it does, but not tomorrow.

          Quote: protoss
          As a result, millions of 8-9 remain on the territory under control of the territory.

          Which is the majority of the population of Syria now. In Turkey - 3 million Syrians + in Idlib to 3,5 million
          1. 0
            13 September 2018 19: 12
            I can’t say everything here, but briefly - the Turks literally washed themselves with blood for the downing of our plane. It’s just that they don’t talk about it, but they had very strong losses among the military, civilians, and military equipment.

            if you're talking about Kurdish tricks, then this is a hat. they respond to an open shot down by the same open blow, and not through third parties. through third hands, we kick each other from the very beginning of the campaign in Syria, and even earlier.
            Or do you think that neosultan just rushed three times to Moscow

            in the same way, gdp flew to ankara and istanbul. and in general, Erdogan is easy-going, when he needs to fly easily anywhere and personally negotiate (he has already traveled all over Africa, for example). it is customary for us to focus on "the telephone conversation took place at the request of the American / Turkish / German side", they say, I didn't really want to talk, but since they asked, then so be it (the illusion of self-importance)
            Russians even did not annex the property of Turkish holdings in the Russian Federation

            like the Turks, however, neither Lukoil refueling, nor Sberbank Denizbank, nor others.
            The events of the past 500 years suggest that there are still such contradictions

            where does the Ottoman-Kyzylbash case? it was such a traditional confrontation, when it is more difficult for two Turkic empires to get along with each other than with some unrelated neighbors. and to the present Persians (Khamenei doesn’t count, he will die soon) why suddenly butt off with the Turks?
            In Turkey - 3 million Syrians + in Idlib up to 3,5 million

            + in Azaz-Jarablus-Albaba 1,5 million + 1 million in Afrin
            total 9 lyamov, it seems that Erdogan is the president of Syria, not Assad :)

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