Just two days ago, I wrote about the Manafort affair and what consequences it may have for the current US administration. However, I could not imagine that the events would unfold so rapidly. The result of the hearings turned out to be not completely expected either - Paul Manafort himself showed enviable restraint and did not testify against Trump, although he was threatened with a really long sentence if he was found guilty. But the "accomplice" of Manafort, Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen, admitted under oath that Trump personally instructed him to pay American porn actress Stormy Daniels and Playboy magazine model Karen McDougall for keeping silent about their relationship with Trump.
How serious this all can be judged is because Trump hastened to scare the American man in the street with an economic collapse in the event of his resignation. That is, he himself does not exclude such a development of events.
If anyone doubts whether it is possible to dismiss the president in the United States because of sex scandal, remember history Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. Yes, formally, Congress was not investigating Lewinsky's “spots on her dress”, but Clinton’s lies under oath. And it almost cost Clinton the presidency, although the scandal itself was not worth the damn - the usual intrigue of the head with the intern, quite full age, even by the strict puritan standards of Washington.
In the case of Trump, things are a little more complicated - he hasn't lied under oath yet. But this is offset by the hatred that Democrats and the wider American public are experiencing, traditionally democratic, “human rights” orientations. Trump's problem is not even that he has few supporters - they are, in general, more than many of his predecessors as president of the United States. But he just has a huge number of opponents, or, as they would say now, haters. Trump’s mistrust index is also near record, and almost half of the US population will be happy to hear about his resignation. And this, as we understand, is an excellent base for his opponents.
It is necessary to understand that Michael Cohen, having testified under oath against Trump, cut off his own path to retreat. Now he cannot refuse them without risking a review of his business. And that would almost certainly mean prison to him. It is also important that the name of the women with whom Trump probably had a connection became known to the investigators. Now they can be brought to an investigation at any time, and there is no doubt that they will lay out everything about Trump and their relationship - right down to the stains on dresses and other intimate details.
Does this guarantee a victory for Trump's opponents? Not at the moment. Alas, they don’t have a majority in Congress, and it’s too risky to hope for Trump’s opponents among the Republicans themselves — party discipline may turn out to be stronger than personal preferences.
That is why the tone of the opponents of the current US president is rather calm - they, like, do not require the immediate tearing of Trump. But this is certainly slyness in anticipation of elections to Congress and the Senate. Now the Republicans have a small margin in Congress, and if they still want to have at least some kind of capable administration, they must literally hold this advantage at any price. Democrats, on the other hand, quite reasonably believe that scandals like the current one are working against Republicans, and it will be extremely difficult to maintain the status quo on the results of the elections.
Therefore, we can assume with a rather large degree of confidence that an attempt to remove Trump from power will nevertheless take place. But this will most likely happen in the fall, after the November elections. And if the outcome of this election turns out to be favorable for the Democrats, Trump will most likely become the former US president.
Now a few words about what we expect from the likely impeachment of Trump.
First of all, let us recall some features of the American system of inheritance of power. And above all, the fact that the impossibility of the fulfillment of their duties by the elected President of the United States does not at all mean an immediate appointment of special elections. The duties of the president are automatically transferred to the vice-president. If something happens to him, the speaker of Congress (automatically the Republican) becomes the president automatically. Next is a list of fifteen more officials, the absolute majority of whom are Republicans.
In America, such an event as early elections is unlikely. The constitution is designed so that victory in elections ensures the victorious party almost guaranteed four years of rule. Exceptions are possible only in case of sudden incapacity of eighteen politicians at once, which, you see, is almost a fantastic assumption.
Therefore, in the case of the impeachment of Trump, we get President Michael Pence. What he is, you can easily read on the Internet, we only dwell on the fact that this is a politician, not seen in any sympathy for Russia. This is the party nomenclature of the modern Republicans, which against the background of Trump can be called almost a hawk.
It is obvious that such a figure as president dramatically consolidates the Republicans. And he has no opponents in the special services. In any case, such irreconcilable, like Trump. Therefore, he will surely be given the rest of his time as president. Even democrats will be calm, and their criticism will surely be curtailed to the usual internal agenda for the USA.
On the other hand, the lesson taught to Trump will surely be remembered by Pence. And one cannot expect any kind of thaw in Russian-American relations.
But for the Russian side, such castling may be useful. First of all, the fact that shaky hopes will go into the past, connected with the expectation that Trump will strengthen his position as president and begin to strengthen our bilateral relations through some kind of one-sided concessions.
We will again return to the transparent world of a pure, unclouded confrontation with the USA. Let's get rid of illusions and realize that you can only hope for yourself. Moreover, it is possible that we will understand that even a victory in the next American elections of a truly pro-Russian candidate does not guarantee us anything.
And this is probably the maximum of what we generally shine in the foreseeable future in our relations with the Anglo-Saxons.
And Trump ... Trump is a pity.
It was a good attempt ...