Painter Trump and Nude China

The rapid growth rates of the Chinese economy are long gone. Maintaining it with the growing welfare of the population of the Middle Kingdom is possible only through strong expansion into neighboring countries, including Russia, as well as through the implementation of global projects like the One Belt, One Way initiative.

At the same time, China has yet to survive in the unprecedented trade war imposed on him by the administration of Donald Trump. Many experts believe that Washington has thus merely responded to the "Made in China 2025" policy, proclaimed by the CCP. By the time the Republican came to the White House again, there were a lot of reasons for the US trade confrontation with China.

And as the main one, obviously, one can single out the enviable independence of the Chinese yuan, which, despite all the efforts of the Federal Reserve System, did not become an Asian substitute for the dollar. Moreover, the yuan even pressed the Japanese yen, the traditional ally of the dollar, as a regional reserve currency.

American consumers also ceased to organize the practice of replacing relatively high-quality Chinese goods with counterparts from Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries in the region, which have long been transformed into economic satellites of the Middle Kingdom. China's accession to the WTO has changed almost nothing - all of its rules and regulations in Beijing have learned to bypass with enviable ease. And the domestic market for the same WTO in China was simply closed.

Moreover, at the expense of large-scale crediting and subsidizing by the People's Bank of China of exporting companies, there was a practice when Chinese debts were actually transferred to American buyers. And as a result, they directly affected the volume of the unrestrainedly growing US debt.

In the past year and a half, President Trump, and after him the American media almost traditionally depicted the economic policy of the PRC in negative colors. And very few people remember such “trifles” as regular infringements of intellectual property rights in China and “forced transfer of technology”. Or the practice of absorption (in fact, expropriation) of foreign industries, for example, in connection with non-fulfillment of investment obligations or their insufficient localization.

But in no way should we forget that in Beijing in recent years they have managed to really significantly reconfigure their foreign economic policy. Moreover, in such a way that the US share in Chinese exports has become quite stable and unexpectedly rapidly declining. Many problems and contradictions that could be resolved by themselves in the event of China’s real departure from the rigid state regulation of the economy only accumulated.

Shortly after the presidential election of 2016, Brad Setser, a senior fellow for international economics at the American Council on Foreign Relations, published a statement that can be called programmatic for the Trump administration:

“The Chinese Communist Party has not given up its position in trade. The party leadership continues to firmly control the commanding heights of the Chinese economy, directly or indirectly, by influencing large “private” companies, which can remain both private and successful solely thanks to the support of the party. ”

Nevertheless, Trump's “trade offensive” was a big surprise for China. Europe also experienced a considerable shock from the new American president, but for the sake of victory in confrontation with a rival from the East, the US, apparently, decided to return to economic friendship with the EU. Data on Trump's latest contacts with European leaders and with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, is clear evidence of this.

Against this background, a kind of supplement looks like a very active quoting by the Western media of new ideas of perhaps the oldest of world politicians - former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. He, obviously, remembering his experience of using China as a deterrent to the USSR, now offers something similar, but in a mirror version.

Namely, to use the growing Russia as a kind of lever for influencing the intractable, and economically extremely aggressive China. From such positions, the veteran politician highly appreciates the results of the Helsinki summit of Trump and Putin.

Apparently, Kissinger is not embarrassed even by the fact that now under the pressure of Trump, China has found itself in the position of a nude model. But the former state secretary is completely unwilling to take into account the fact that Russia receives more and more new portions of sanctions from the US, while more and more new proposals from China. Even if it is not always real Russia profitable.

Not so long ago, Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised Washington a "retaliatory strike." But he is now very much hampered by the slowdown in economic growth and not the most reliable position of the national currency. It remains in limbo due to the colossal amount of loans and subsidies issued by the People’s Bank of China to exporting companies.

Earlier, we recall, China quite easily fought off any inclinations of the United States to the trade standoff, manipulating the yuan. Now, for the devaluation, it is certainly not the most appropriate time, since there is a prolonged downward trend in the value of all types of Chinese assets in the market. And the most unpleasant thing for Beijing is that at the same time American papers are becoming more expensive.

Last Tuesday, the latest official data of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics became known. The PMI index was 51,2 in July, which is 0,3 lower than the June figure. The PMI is considered to be the key barometer of the economy, and it is precisely it that indicates a decline in manufacturing activity in China, although not very significant.

Yet another blow to the Chinese economy could be plans announced at the end of June by the White House to establish duties on almost the entire list of Chinese imports. The total amount of duties, more similar to sanctions, can be up to 500 billion dollars. Usually, in such cases, China does not pull with tough answers, but so far no one has reported any reaction from Beijing.

Many experts in this regard have the impression that Beijing is preparing either to just immediately throw out the white flag, or to wait for some accompanying decisions of the European Union. So far, Beijing hastened to announce new measures to stimulate exports, which in fact boil down to a further increase in the volume of subsidies and concessional lending.

If, after this, Europe once again chooses to go on the American fairway, the retaliatory Chinese measures may turn out to be as unexpected as they are tough. If the EU tries to somehow mitigate the American negativity, a truce may even happen in the growing trade war.

A lot now will depend on how the US administration, in cooperation with the Fed, is ready to continue to allow the whole world to overestimate the dollar, which, in fact, leads only to a further increase in the dimensionless American public debt. And also on how much the CPC Central Committee and the People’s Bank of China are ready to continue to allow Europeans and Americans to underestimate the yuan.
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  1. dSK
    7 August 2018 06: 24
    The outstripping growth rates of the Chinese economy are long gone.
    For the “gold” lard, stable GDP growth of 6-7% per year is a “blue dream”.
    1. dSK
      7 August 2018 06: 33

      Western media actively quoting new ideas of perhaps the oldest of world politicians - the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
      To trust the scorched Freemason and Zionist Henry Kissinger - throw the “white flag” in advance.
      1. +4
        7 August 2018 06: 50
        Many if yes, but you can sympathize with China, we will see how they will develop in an atmosphere of bullying and instability.
        1. dSK
          7 August 2018 07: 23
          Quote: Rusland
          how they will develop in an atmosphere of bullying and instability.

          How many years did Russia - the USSR - the Russian Federation live in a different atmosphere?
          With a population of at least 300 million people all "foreign" sanctions for Russia will be an "empty phrase".
          1. +1
            7 August 2018 07: 26
            Quote from dsk
            With a population of at least 300 million people, all "foreign" sanctions for Russia will be an "empty phrase"

            Yeah ... there is nothing left - to double the population wink
            Your phrase may be correct ... but it’s from the series "about grandmother, who (under certain conditions) would be grandfather" request
            1. dSK
              7 August 2018 19: 52
              Quote: Golovan Jack
              there is nothing left - to double the population

              I believe that will be! Why is Russia worse than China, gentlemen atheists?
              We have all the conditions for this! hi
        2. +1
          7 August 2018 07: 26
          If Koreans are engaged in our import substitution in the Far East and Siberia, growing vegetables and melons for us, then if China weakens, we will buy rusty screws and nails at flea markets, and clothes, shoes and all household appliances will disappear from store shelves, including dishes, forks and spoons. belay
    2. 0
      12 August 2018 21: 53
      Quote from dsk
      For the “gold” lard, stable GDP growth of 6-7% per year is a “blue dream”.

      You just forgot a little that Russia, together with the entire West, from Canada and Iceland to New Zealand, is just part of that "golden billion". But China is not yet, but it really wants to, and salaries in it in industrialized regions in dollar terms are already ahead of Russian ones after devaluation ...
  2. +1
    7 August 2018 07: 31
    IMHO is quite a solid (from popular) article. A plus.
  3. +2
    7 August 2018 08: 24
    In this trade war between China and the USA, Russia is in the position of a poor relative ..
    But the former secretary of state is completely unwilling to take into account the fact that Russia receives more and more portions of sanctions from the United States, while more and more proposals come from China. Even if it’s not always really realistic for Russia.
  4. +1
    7 August 2018 08: 35
    "Outpacing Chinese economy has long been a thing of the past."

    A slowdown in China's GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year to 6,7%, of course, a decrease, but is it really slower than the developed countries of the West show today? feel
  5. 0
    7 August 2018 18: 20
    The bloodsucker-oligarchs, under the leadership of the "Communist Party" "are building terry capitalism. Absurd. A protracted NEP?
    1. +1
      12 August 2018 21: 54
      Quote: Essex62
      The bloodsucker-oligarchs, under the leadership of the "Communist Party" "are building terry capitalism. Absurd. A protracted NEP?

      No, just a new type of socialism "with an Asian face", the basic ideas of Marxism + a number of postulates of Maoism + the basis of the economy - Dengxiaopism = modern China.

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