Syria. When will Idlib turn?
Completed, and brilliantly completed, the strategic offensive operation "Basalt" in southern Syria. During it, they were finally liberated from the "green" Islamists ("moderate" and not at all) of the territory in three provinces of the country: Suwayda, Deraa and Kuneitra, the power of the government returns to several thousand square kilometers of densely populated lands. The enclave of the banned in the Russian Federation of ISIL in the Yarmuk valley in Deraa has also been crushed. But what will happen next?
"Basalt" - by fire and word
The offensive of government troops and their allies, supported by the forces of the grouping of forces (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the SAR (especially, of course, the airborne forces) left the militants no chance. For just a month, the opposition’s “southern front”, which was considered very stable and solid, ceased to exist, and then the “black” enclave in the Yarmouk Valley. What contributed to the continuous air strikes of the aerospace forces, the group of which, according to officialdom, is continuously reduced, and especially reduced before the next attack, and satellite imagery invariably shows the opposite: aviation about the same as it was, or even more. Massive artillery fire also helped a lot, including with the use of both high-power weapons like the Smerch MLRS or TOS-1A Solntsepek, and high-precision strikes with artillery rounds and mines. Strikes were also carried out by the Tochka-U OTR. The reconnaissance and firing contours of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation deployed in Syria make the time from detection to destruction of targets as minimal as the consumption of ammunition or aircraft weapons. Which, of course, does not negate the use of conventional artillery weapons, because the Syrians themselves have a completely different situation with modern reconnaissance and combat control means. Although there are UAVs, and they are actively used for reconnaissance and correction, our local gunners managed to learn how to shoot except direct fire in recent years (during the years of the war, there were few skilled gunners, but there were a lot of under-educated ones, and they had to be taught again) .
Of course, the reputation established by this moment both in our military and in the “chief conductor” of Hmeimim’s will, General Suheil “Tiger” al-Hassan, also contributed to the fact that the militants began to negotiate and agree to the conditions set forth by our Reconciliation Center warring parties. In fact, this operation, even more than the others, was carried out with the word “thanks to the fact that the“ sword ”had worked well before that. In general, by the "good word and a pistol" by the end of July all the areas that were under the "green", or taken, or surrendered. It cannot be said that the “bearded men” did not resist - they resisted in some places desperately both for key heights and for cities, but neither the “moderate” nor the “unlimited” from the HTSH (the former Nusra, banned in Russia) less than LIH), which eventually went together in Idlib. And then the ISIL enclave ended quickly enough, and even faster than planned. He was planned to be cut into two parts in a week, and in the end he was completely defeated. The remnants of the “blacks” were taken to the desert in exchange for the lives of the hostages they captured during the terrorist attack on Suweida.
Selective salvation for provocateurs
And making loud statements like "Moscow will fall earlier than Deraa," the leaders of the bandits hurried to change their shoes, and many even joined the army "voluntarily and with a song", including the author of the phrase given here. The dissenters, as usual, left for Idlib on "green buses". Moreover, those who entered immediately took part in the battles against the “blacks”, and, they say, quite well.
The Israelis took, for some reason, not to themselves, but to Jordan, only false rescuers from the White Helmets. In essence, disguised terrorists, moreover, working on the direct orders of Western intelligence agencies to organize provocations, including with “himataks”. And the "helmets" from there will be exported to Europe, including to Germany. Why did Israel not take them to her, and King Abdullah too? Afraid that the "rescuers" will blow something? Well, nothing, let Frau Angela now rejoice at these "courageous" people.
Moreover, part of the "kasochnikov", as they say, never reached the border - it disappeared somewhere. Whether our aviation accidentally ruined them on the road, whether the Israelis themselves or overseas patrons decided to remove those who knew too much, or took them out somehow, maybe the Americans took them to the base in At-Tanfa.
Terms of surrender and amnesty
It cannot be said that the power of Damascus in all the returned areas has no limitations - this is not so. Under the terms of the surrender, the militants who did not want to leave, surrendered all heavy weapons, group weapon and ammunition, Syrian flags raised everywhere, authorities restored. But in the cities, units of the Russian military police (or subdivisions of other branches of the military, who came on rotation instead of VP in their form — this is widely practiced, everyone needs combat experience) are guarantors of the fact that for six months these former militants he does not want to leave or go to the army, he will "shake" Mukhabarat, that is, the security agencies of the SAR. During this time, they are obliged to somehow regulate their relations with the authorities. By the way, service in the army is a good choice, because, despite various checks by Mukhabarat, she guarantees that the former militant and his relatives will not be charged, therefore many choose her.
Now in the south, the troops reached the demilitarized zone on the border with the occupied Golan, and on the border of the demilitarized zone, the military police of the RF Armed Forces also stood up (or other units of the RF Armed Forces under their guise - everyone needs practice, this is understandable).
Cinema and Germans, Idlib and Turks
And then, it seems, it will be Idlib’s turn, where all this time, as if in a dustbin, militants were taken out from other regions of Syria. Despite the fact that there is a zone of de-escalation, it seems that Damascus and Moscow are not going to tolerate this gadyushnik indefinitely or simply even for several years. The fact is that, on the one hand, it may be necessary to let the human garbage brought there to thicken and bend, that is, wait until the people get tired of the abundance of “Shariah defenders”, and conflicts between the groups break out stronger, and on the other hand - do not do this.
Because there is such a factor as Turkey, on the one hand, a partner in the Russian-Iranian-Turkish coalition for reconciliation and the breeding of the parties, and on the other, a country that has its own interests and plans that do not always coincide with ours. However, Iran’s plans also do not always coincide with ours, this is normal. It is unlikely, for example, that the Iranians liked the decision agreed with Israel to withdraw pro-Iranian forces to 85 km from the border with the occupied Golan. But nothing will survive.
And the Turks would very much like to “grab” at least what is now under the “greens” in the north of the SAR. And even more than that - the Turkish media recently published a stuffing, they say, Moscow is discussing with Ankara the transfer of Aleppo (the largest city in the country before the war, the economic center of the SAR) to the Turks, so that there was much room for the refugees! Of course, no one will pass on the Turks and no one is going to discuss it.
But the creeping annexation of Idlib by the Turks may well have a place; there already are Turkish currency and other signs of Turkish influence. Yes, and checkpoints Turkish observers are available. But they, in the end, will not become a hindrance, although the Turks will certainly try to bargain, but they did not go into direct conflict with us in 2015, and now they will not even go. Especially since the Americans are becoming more and more “under pressure”. So, the Congress has just decided to freeze the delivery of F-35A fighters to the country for refusing to cancel the deal on the purchase of C-400E air defense systems from Russia. Well, it is very likely that the Turks will simply replace one "35" with another, that is, with Su-35SE. Let's not forget about the construction of nuclear power plants, "Turkish stream-2" and other projects in the economy. Turks have something to lose.
Although they still do not lose hope to “talk” Moscow and Damascus in negotiations. So, there is information that the Turks are ready to organize the dissolution of all the bandit formations and their re-formation into some kind of "non-terrorist" local militia, which they call the "Syrian National Army", which they will train and arm. But it is completely incomprehensible how the Turks will be able to dissolve HTS and the like, and the rest are not so controlled. Yes, and we do not need there any "militia-army" and other attempts to legitimize. The intention to regain Idlib was voiced by Bashar al-Assad himself.
Will the operation start in the fall?
Therefore, in Syrian blogs with might and main they publish stuffing and leaks that the operation against Idlib and the territories occupied by the militants in the north of Hama, in the north of Lattakia near the border and a piece of Aleppo, will begin in early autumn. And it already acts on those who live under the militants. Rumors in the East and without “Twitter” spread quickly, and now even more so. Therefore, many are already trying to escape from there to areas under the control of the army or across the border. Probably, these rumors are being dispersed in a controlled manner (in the army, nevertheless, it became better with censorship and weasers), so that innocent civilians could be hit. Unless, of course, you can consider living 5 years under the militants 100% peaceful.
But, it seems, idlib "green spot" will not erase from the card immediately, and this will be a series of operations. As it was already this year, when, as a result of the offensive, the Syrians and allies cut the “blot of green paint” on the 40% map, including the strategic Abu ad Dukhur airbase, and now also cut off one piece from the enclave , and so on. Perhaps some part of the “spot” will linger on the map for a longer period. This will depend on many factors, both on agreements with the Turks, and on how and where the crushed “greens” will “dissolve”. They obviously will not want to let them go to Turkey, maybe Europe will accept "fighters for people's happiness"? But, rather, most of them “settle their relations with the government” through amnesty, and the most frostbitten will be sent to the court of Allah. And not only everyone will be able to leave for Europe, but few will be able to do it, as one Ukrainian Cicero used to say with a broken head. Although it’s most likely that this year’s “spot” will not be erased from the card, they will simply reduce it greatly and leave the “reservation”, but it will become even closer and more hungry for thousands of thugs.
Moreover, the “greens” themselves give us a reason to start the operation - through our regular attempts to attack the main base of the Hamim group. The last couple of weeks of attacks, single and group, with the help of self-made shock drone, go every few days, and even more often. Air defense and electronic warfare, of course, do not sleep, and nothing reaches the base, is shot down or planted by means of electronic warfare over 26 devices, but obviously ours are tired of it. Therefore, it is reported that the operation against the militants in the border areas with Turkey of Latakia may begin in the coming days in order to protect Hamim from such attempts. The forces there are now quite enough, and the VKS, having completed the operation in the south, may well allocate some of the forces to support this area. As reported, the first attacks there already by the armed forces of the SAR began, but this, obviously, is a reconnaissance in force.
Then a larger-scale operation may begin in Hama, Aleppo and in the area of the city of Jisr al-Shugur in Idlib. But this is not earlier than September, because both the main strike forces, in particular, the Tiger Forces division, the 4 th mech division, and the WG brigades and others, will take time to rest, replenishing equipment and people, reforming and additional training before the offensive. And it takes time to relocate parts too. In favor of the fact that the “Idlib question” will be solved by armed means, it is also said that Damascus made a deal with the militants, releasing 1500 militant prisoners from prisons in exchange for exporting fighters and civilians completely from the surrounded Shiite settlements of Foix and Kefraya under Idlib . This was clearly done so that the militants, when they were pressed and driven on the fronts, did not blackmail Moscow, Tehran and Damascus with the fate of these villages, as they did before. Now hands are untied.
Of course, there will not be an easy walk; there are a lot of gangsters, according to some estimates, up to 50 thousands. But given the likely strength in only possible strike groups of the SAR and Allied forces, which are greater than these figures, and their technical equipment, taking into account the factor of the steam roller of the airspace, capable of hundreds of air strikes to roll out any enemy, there are no chances for successful defense. it is only a matter of time when they are crushed. Especially since it's not 2015 or 2016 now, the Syrian army has learned how to attack quickly and relatively effectively. But it is clear that “the last fight is the hardest one”, and we must be ready for this.
"Basalt" - by fire and word
The offensive of government troops and their allies, supported by the forces of the grouping of forces (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the SAR (especially, of course, the airborne forces) left the militants no chance. For just a month, the opposition’s “southern front”, which was considered very stable and solid, ceased to exist, and then the “black” enclave in the Yarmouk Valley. What contributed to the continuous air strikes of the aerospace forces, the group of which, according to officialdom, is continuously reduced, and especially reduced before the next attack, and satellite imagery invariably shows the opposite: aviation about the same as it was, or even more. Massive artillery fire also helped a lot, including with the use of both high-power weapons like the Smerch MLRS or TOS-1A Solntsepek, and high-precision strikes with artillery rounds and mines. Strikes were also carried out by the Tochka-U OTR. The reconnaissance and firing contours of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation deployed in Syria make the time from detection to destruction of targets as minimal as the consumption of ammunition or aircraft weapons. Which, of course, does not negate the use of conventional artillery weapons, because the Syrians themselves have a completely different situation with modern reconnaissance and combat control means. Although there are UAVs, and they are actively used for reconnaissance and correction, our local gunners managed to learn how to shoot except direct fire in recent years (during the years of the war, there were few skilled gunners, but there were a lot of under-educated ones, and they had to be taught again) .
Of course, the reputation established by this moment both in our military and in the “chief conductor” of Hmeimim’s will, General Suheil “Tiger” al-Hassan, also contributed to the fact that the militants began to negotiate and agree to the conditions set forth by our Reconciliation Center warring parties. In fact, this operation, even more than the others, was carried out with the word “thanks to the fact that the“ sword ”had worked well before that. In general, by the "good word and a pistol" by the end of July all the areas that were under the "green", or taken, or surrendered. It cannot be said that the “bearded men” did not resist - they resisted in some places desperately both for key heights and for cities, but neither the “moderate” nor the “unlimited” from the HTSH (the former Nusra, banned in Russia) less than LIH), which eventually went together in Idlib. And then the ISIL enclave ended quickly enough, and even faster than planned. He was planned to be cut into two parts in a week, and in the end he was completely defeated. The remnants of the “blacks” were taken to the desert in exchange for the lives of the hostages they captured during the terrorist attack on Suweida.
Selective salvation for provocateurs
And making loud statements like "Moscow will fall earlier than Deraa," the leaders of the bandits hurried to change their shoes, and many even joined the army "voluntarily and with a song", including the author of the phrase given here. The dissenters, as usual, left for Idlib on "green buses". Moreover, those who entered immediately took part in the battles against the “blacks”, and, they say, quite well.
The Israelis took, for some reason, not to themselves, but to Jordan, only false rescuers from the White Helmets. In essence, disguised terrorists, moreover, working on the direct orders of Western intelligence agencies to organize provocations, including with “himataks”. And the "helmets" from there will be exported to Europe, including to Germany. Why did Israel not take them to her, and King Abdullah too? Afraid that the "rescuers" will blow something? Well, nothing, let Frau Angela now rejoice at these "courageous" people.
Moreover, part of the "kasochnikov", as they say, never reached the border - it disappeared somewhere. Whether our aviation accidentally ruined them on the road, whether the Israelis themselves or overseas patrons decided to remove those who knew too much, or took them out somehow, maybe the Americans took them to the base in At-Tanfa.
Terms of surrender and amnesty
It cannot be said that the power of Damascus in all the returned areas has no limitations - this is not so. Under the terms of the surrender, the militants who did not want to leave, surrendered all heavy weapons, group weapon and ammunition, Syrian flags raised everywhere, authorities restored. But in the cities, units of the Russian military police (or subdivisions of other branches of the military, who came on rotation instead of VP in their form — this is widely practiced, everyone needs combat experience) are guarantors of the fact that for six months these former militants he does not want to leave or go to the army, he will "shake" Mukhabarat, that is, the security agencies of the SAR. During this time, they are obliged to somehow regulate their relations with the authorities. By the way, service in the army is a good choice, because, despite various checks by Mukhabarat, she guarantees that the former militant and his relatives will not be charged, therefore many choose her.
Now in the south, the troops reached the demilitarized zone on the border with the occupied Golan, and on the border of the demilitarized zone, the military police of the RF Armed Forces also stood up (or other units of the RF Armed Forces under their guise - everyone needs practice, this is understandable).
Cinema and Germans, Idlib and Turks
And then, it seems, it will be Idlib’s turn, where all this time, as if in a dustbin, militants were taken out from other regions of Syria. Despite the fact that there is a zone of de-escalation, it seems that Damascus and Moscow are not going to tolerate this gadyushnik indefinitely or simply even for several years. The fact is that, on the one hand, it may be necessary to let the human garbage brought there to thicken and bend, that is, wait until the people get tired of the abundance of “Shariah defenders”, and conflicts between the groups break out stronger, and on the other hand - do not do this.
Because there is such a factor as Turkey, on the one hand, a partner in the Russian-Iranian-Turkish coalition for reconciliation and the breeding of the parties, and on the other, a country that has its own interests and plans that do not always coincide with ours. However, Iran’s plans also do not always coincide with ours, this is normal. It is unlikely, for example, that the Iranians liked the decision agreed with Israel to withdraw pro-Iranian forces to 85 km from the border with the occupied Golan. But nothing will survive.
And the Turks would very much like to “grab” at least what is now under the “greens” in the north of the SAR. And even more than that - the Turkish media recently published a stuffing, they say, Moscow is discussing with Ankara the transfer of Aleppo (the largest city in the country before the war, the economic center of the SAR) to the Turks, so that there was much room for the refugees! Of course, no one will pass on the Turks and no one is going to discuss it.
But the creeping annexation of Idlib by the Turks may well have a place; there already are Turkish currency and other signs of Turkish influence. Yes, and checkpoints Turkish observers are available. But they, in the end, will not become a hindrance, although the Turks will certainly try to bargain, but they did not go into direct conflict with us in 2015, and now they will not even go. Especially since the Americans are becoming more and more “under pressure”. So, the Congress has just decided to freeze the delivery of F-35A fighters to the country for refusing to cancel the deal on the purchase of C-400E air defense systems from Russia. Well, it is very likely that the Turks will simply replace one "35" with another, that is, with Su-35SE. Let's not forget about the construction of nuclear power plants, "Turkish stream-2" and other projects in the economy. Turks have something to lose.
Although they still do not lose hope to “talk” Moscow and Damascus in negotiations. So, there is information that the Turks are ready to organize the dissolution of all the bandit formations and their re-formation into some kind of "non-terrorist" local militia, which they call the "Syrian National Army", which they will train and arm. But it is completely incomprehensible how the Turks will be able to dissolve HTS and the like, and the rest are not so controlled. Yes, and we do not need there any "militia-army" and other attempts to legitimize. The intention to regain Idlib was voiced by Bashar al-Assad himself.
Will the operation start in the fall?
Therefore, in Syrian blogs with might and main they publish stuffing and leaks that the operation against Idlib and the territories occupied by the militants in the north of Hama, in the north of Lattakia near the border and a piece of Aleppo, will begin in early autumn. And it already acts on those who live under the militants. Rumors in the East and without “Twitter” spread quickly, and now even more so. Therefore, many are already trying to escape from there to areas under the control of the army or across the border. Probably, these rumors are being dispersed in a controlled manner (in the army, nevertheless, it became better with censorship and weasers), so that innocent civilians could be hit. Unless, of course, you can consider living 5 years under the militants 100% peaceful.
But, it seems, idlib "green spot" will not erase from the card immediately, and this will be a series of operations. As it was already this year, when, as a result of the offensive, the Syrians and allies cut the “blot of green paint” on the 40% map, including the strategic Abu ad Dukhur airbase, and now also cut off one piece from the enclave , and so on. Perhaps some part of the “spot” will linger on the map for a longer period. This will depend on many factors, both on agreements with the Turks, and on how and where the crushed “greens” will “dissolve”. They obviously will not want to let them go to Turkey, maybe Europe will accept "fighters for people's happiness"? But, rather, most of them “settle their relations with the government” through amnesty, and the most frostbitten will be sent to the court of Allah. And not only everyone will be able to leave for Europe, but few will be able to do it, as one Ukrainian Cicero used to say with a broken head. Although it’s most likely that this year’s “spot” will not be erased from the card, they will simply reduce it greatly and leave the “reservation”, but it will become even closer and more hungry for thousands of thugs.
Moreover, the “greens” themselves give us a reason to start the operation - through our regular attempts to attack the main base of the Hamim group. The last couple of weeks of attacks, single and group, with the help of self-made shock drone, go every few days, and even more often. Air defense and electronic warfare, of course, do not sleep, and nothing reaches the base, is shot down or planted by means of electronic warfare over 26 devices, but obviously ours are tired of it. Therefore, it is reported that the operation against the militants in the border areas with Turkey of Latakia may begin in the coming days in order to protect Hamim from such attempts. The forces there are now quite enough, and the VKS, having completed the operation in the south, may well allocate some of the forces to support this area. As reported, the first attacks there already by the armed forces of the SAR began, but this, obviously, is a reconnaissance in force.
Then a larger-scale operation may begin in Hama, Aleppo and in the area of the city of Jisr al-Shugur in Idlib. But this is not earlier than September, because both the main strike forces, in particular, the Tiger Forces division, the 4 th mech division, and the WG brigades and others, will take time to rest, replenishing equipment and people, reforming and additional training before the offensive. And it takes time to relocate parts too. In favor of the fact that the “Idlib question” will be solved by armed means, it is also said that Damascus made a deal with the militants, releasing 1500 militant prisoners from prisons in exchange for exporting fighters and civilians completely from the surrounded Shiite settlements of Foix and Kefraya under Idlib . This was clearly done so that the militants, when they were pressed and driven on the fronts, did not blackmail Moscow, Tehran and Damascus with the fate of these villages, as they did before. Now hands are untied.
Of course, there will not be an easy walk; there are a lot of gangsters, according to some estimates, up to 50 thousands. But given the likely strength in only possible strike groups of the SAR and Allied forces, which are greater than these figures, and their technical equipment, taking into account the factor of the steam roller of the airspace, capable of hundreds of air strikes to roll out any enemy, there are no chances for successful defense. it is only a matter of time when they are crushed. Especially since it's not 2015 or 2016 now, the Syrian army has learned how to attack quickly and relatively effectively. But it is clear that “the last fight is the hardest one”, and we must be ready for this.
- Ya. Vyatkin
- rusnext.ru
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