American expert: Ankara may close Incirlik base for US

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Washington should prepare for the fact that the Turkish authorities will close Incirlik airbase for it, as well as revise the policy in the region, taking into account the arisen tension in bilateral relations, leads RIA News opinion of the American expert, senior analyst of the Center for bipartisan policy Nicholas Danforth.





American-Turkish relations have worsened in recent months, including because of the American pastor Brunson, who was arrested in Turkey in 2016 year. On Wednesday, Washington imposed sanctions against Turkish Justice Minister Abdulahmit Gul and Interior Minister Suleiman Soilu. Both are blamed for "serious human rights violations."

Today, the US government should calmly continue the search for a diplomatic solution that would allow Branson to be brought home and would not harm American values, the expert believes.

According to him, the steps that Washington is currently planning should include preparations for the possible closure of bases in Turkey for the Americans, such as Incirlik. And in general, to rethink their regional policy from Iraq to the Balkans, since the current minimum level of Turkish cooperation can no longer be taken for granted.

Danfort recalled that the tension in relations between the two countries has recently been linked to factors such as Ankara’s refusal to impose sanctions on Iran; the Americans support the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, whom the Turkish authorities consider to be terrorists; Ankara's purchase of Russian C-400 anti-aircraft systems.

In addition, the crisis in the US-Turkish relations is developing against the backdrop of dramatic problems in the Turkish economy and the fall of the national currency of the republic.

The Central Bank of Turkey recently increased its inflation forecast for 2018 and 2019. The projected price increase for this year was 13,4% (earlier it was mentioned 8,4%), on 2019-th - 9,3% (instead of 6,5%). Since the beginning of this year, the Turkish lira has lost 22% of its value.
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  1. +5
    2 August 2018 09: 13
    It cannot - it must!
    1. +3
      2 August 2018 09: 23
      Ankara will never do this!
      1. +4
        2 August 2018 09: 28
        This base is too profitable for the Turks. And as you know, grandmothers love everything. So another throw
        1. +3
          2 August 2018 09: 31
          Quote: Magic Archer
          another stuffing

          In order to study the reaction. Yes
          1. +1
            2 August 2018 18: 24
            Oh, these American experts. Oh how blurt out.
            They Hitler’s Americans won and flew to the moon, then they have Russian tanks in Kiev and the state of Georgia, now the Turks are about to base (for which the United States stably pays with hand-drawn paper, which she herself draws) will close.
            What can I say - AMERICANS.
            1. +1
              3 August 2018 07: 05
              Quote: Shurik70
              What can I say - AMERICANS.

              These will be cleaner British scientists. Although there is nothing to be surprised at - the roots are common. wassat
        2. +3
          2 August 2018 09: 33
          Turks, though traders, but touchy traders.
          Turks have already squeezed out Germans from Ingerlik, now Americans are in turn. So most likely the Americans will leave for Jordan, as well as the Germans.
          1. +1
            2 August 2018 09: 42
            The Americans have already evacuated nuclear bombs from this base, so now they especially do not need it, but where? I read somewhere that in Romania, I’m not used to believing in rumors somehow.
          2. SSR
            +3
            2 August 2018 09: 50
            Quote: borberd
            Turks, though traders, but touchy traders.
            Turks have already squeezed out Germans from Ingerlik, now Americans are in turn. So most likely the Americans will leave for Jordan, as well as the Germans.

            But the Americans, even those "traders", can also beads.
            The United States has a quiet glanders, put pressure on the markets and not everyone can stand it, especially if foreign trade is tied to the dollar.
            By the way, mattress-beds with their mantra about “American values”, with these same “values”, have long been unable to withstand even superficial criticism, but they continue to insert this word everywhere, which has become a parasite word.
          3. +3
            2 August 2018 11: 07
            most likely the Americans will leave for Jordan, as the Germans
            Given the nature of Erdogan and the constant pressure of the United States, it can be assumed with confidence up to 80% that it will be so. 20% that the United States will change its policy (pressure and sanctions) towards Turkey.
          4. +1
            2 August 2018 13: 10
            Quote: borberd
            Turks, though traders, but touchy traders

            and what are the Turks traders ?? These people are actually nomadic warriors. And in the Ottoman Empire, trade and everything connected with them, the Turks were always the least connected, and Jews, Armenians and Greeks were always responsible for this area. West from the Russian Federation , as if not being traded in various areas. These are the main traders.
            Quote: borberd
            Turks have already squeezed out Germans from Ingerlik, now Americans are in turn. So most likely the Americans will leave for Jordan, as well as the Germans.

            Here I agree, if conceptually in the world, the inevitable process does not change in different directions. The role that Turkey deserves, and especially the one that it sees itself, does not fit in with the US vision of the world and the region. These are objective processes and Turkey will have to do it.
            1. 0
              2 August 2018 14: 07
              Times are changing, once were warriors, now are traders. This can be observed when the Americans begin to tighten the nuts on the Turks on tricks. And this will be if and when the Americans are kicked out of Ingerlic.
              I don’t know about the role in which the Turks see themselves (I suspect that they want Great Port 2), but the BV peoples do not see them point-blank in this form. And the Turks will be very convinced of this.
              1. 0
                2 August 2018 14: 30
                Quote: borberd
                now traders

                Well, believe it further.
                Quote: borberd
                but the peoples of the BV do not see them in this form at point blank range. And the Turks will be very convinced of this

                Oguz tribes from Turkestan were not particularly interested in the opinion of the peoples of the BV, they came and took power and support was not small and management was normal. Since not making up the majority in the occupied lands, they managed to keep the Ottoman Empire for 600 years, and there was also the Seljuk and other Turkic states -Yes, the Mamluks ruled, Kyzylbashi, Khajars, Afshars, etc. All together are 1000 years old and everything is continuous.
                1. 0
                  2 August 2018 15: 06
                  Come on, following your logic, the Greeks, who posed not only BV but also those who are close to BV, are also capable of past feats? And what about the Mongols, Persians, Romans and other shakers of the Universes? Also remember the old? Their days have passed, look at their descendants.
                  1. +1
                    2 August 2018 23: 11
                    Quote: borberd
                    And what about the Mongols, Persians, Romans and other shakers of the Universes? Also remember the old?

                    Yes, it’s just not even 100 years since the Ottoman Empire collapsed, unlike the Greeks whose Romans had been successful thousands of years ago. And Turkey, even not having passed 100 years after the collapse, comes back and regains its position. It took half of Cyprus, and right now a part Northern Syria is politically and economically very well represented in its region. Plus on the world map appeared 5 Türkic states and 2 Muslim states in the Balkans with great influence and love for Turkey.

                    This is how Erdogan is met in Serbia by the Muslim population in the Sanjak region.
      2. +2
        2 August 2018 10: 27
        Quote: igorka357
        Ankara will never do this!

        Why? If the United States imposes economic sanctions, then Erdogan may well give them such a bang. He has endured this American base for so long, knowing that the Americans are behind the attempted assassination attempt. They harbor Gulen, support the Kurds and try to put pressure on Turkey through economic leverage. Why Turkey are such partners? There is generally fit to think about the advisability of Turkey in NATO. If Erdogan hits this point, then this block will generally sprinkle like a house of cards.
        1. 0
          2 August 2018 14: 20
          Turks themselves are implicated in supporting terrorists. So if we take it, then we can recall that the party of Erdogan is an offshoot of the "Muslim brothers" who are considered terrorists not only in Egypt but also in other countries of the region. I’m not saying that the Turks support Hamas, Islamic jihad and the Syrian Turks - which in essence is this very DAESH. Assad, and with it Russia, will still have to face the Turks in Syria if Assad wants to take control of all pre-war territories. The Turks have long played a destructive role in NATO, so they are likely to be kicked out or leave. And this will not affect NATO.
          1. +1
            2 August 2018 14: 37
            Quote: borberd
            Turks themselves implicated in supporting terrorists

            You can blame everyone for this. It depends who the terrorist is for whom. Hezbollah is a terrorist and Hamas for Israel, but not in Russia, but they are still fighting with Hezbollah.
            Quote: borberd
            I’m not saying that the Turks support Hamas, Islamic jihad and the Syrian Turks - which, in essence, are the same DAESH

            Since when did Hamas and Turkmens (as many as a whole nation) become DAESH ??
            And what kind of Islamic Jihad is there? Entire states then can be summed up under this.
            Russia supports Hezbollah, which is led by Islamic Dikhad.
            Quote: borberd
            Turks have long played a destructive role in NATO, so they are likely to be kicked out, or they will leave

            These are some NATO countries that play a destructive role. You start with the letter B, and the letter A goes to B. Who sponsored the Kurds and continues ?? Who forever protected them? Who refused to sell technology and transfer intelligence? NATO countries, its Western wing. Turkey was weak and could not do anything about it, and when it gained strength, it began to crush these PACs both in the country and abroad. And Turkey was still to blame.
            Quote: borberd
            And NATO will not be affected

            This is still affecting NATO, look at the geographical location, its military and other potential in the beginning. This exit of Estonia will not affect NATO, not Turkey.
            And Turkey will also affect the exit.
            1. 0
              2 August 2018 16: 15
              This is your problem. When you divide terrorists into yours and to strangers. This is called double standards. On the one hand, Lavrov kisses Hamasniks in the Kremlin, and on the other, you are offended that the Americans do not recognize tribal self-defense units fighting against Assad as terrorists. Daesh - a hodgepodge of organizations and peoples fighting against Assad, and the Turkomans from the point of view of Russia they are, because how can you explain the bombing of the Turkish air forces by Russian air forces under the pretext of fighting Daesh?
              Why, from Russia's point of view, 3 million Palestinians have the right to their own state, and 40 million Kurds are not? Because the Turks declared them terrorists? But there are no hezbollahs, Hamasniki and Islamic jihad?
              1. +1
                2 August 2018 23: 24
                Quote: borberd
                This is your problem.

                This is not our problem. It was ALWAYS and at all times. Ours is a scout, and their spy.
                Quote: borberd
                Daesh - a hodgepodge of organizations and peoples fighting against Assad, and Turkomans from the point of view of Russia they are

                Well, then, then Russia first of all needs genocide in the Caucasus, expelling all Asian migrants and starting the bombing of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, because they are in percentage terms, and some in specific numbers (for example, the Caucasus, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) are ONE more than the Turkmens who live in this region.
                Quote: borberd
                and the Turkoman from the point of view of Russia they are, for how can one explain the bombing of the Turkish air forces by Russian air forces under the pretext of fighting Daesh?

                Because Turkman did not obey Assad, and not because they are jihadists or supporters of DAESH. Turkey, having shot down Su, showed the Russian Federation that Turkey must be reckoned with and its position and veil in the North are taken by Turkish troops and Turkey, Russia and Iran together solve the problem Syria.
                Quote: borberd
                Why, from Russia's point of view, 3 million Palestinians have the right to their own state, and 40 million Kurds are not?

                Because it does not meet the national interests of Russia, and not because the Turks declared terrorists and we don’t need all Kurds under one comb. The PKK and YPG are a separate story. If the Kurdish population of 20 million would be for the department, then 80 million of Turkey would only be their genocide could be pacified. But this is not there. Since there are a lot of Kurds for the Turkish state.
                There Israel was a fiend of hell for the Saudis, oppa when talking about Iran has a diametrically different reaction and relationship.

                By the way, 2 days ago, these terrorists with the PKK killed the wife and 11-month-old child of a Turkish army soldier when they went to visit him.


          2. +1
            2 August 2018 16: 36
            Quote: borberd
            Turks themselves are implicated in supporting terrorists.

            Mixed, who denies this. Some of the terrorists exported from Aleppo and other Syrian lanes to Idlib province, after the withdrawal, ended up in pro-Turkish units and are fighting against the Kurds, which is no secret to anyone, which is generally more practical than ruining their soldiers. But they at least have a justification for their support. Turkey does not need Independent Kurdistan, which can not be said about Israel. Israel, to no less, if not more, supported terrorists with weapons, medicines, intelligence and advisers from the very beginning of the conflict in Syria. Here it is more difficult to justify the support of terrorists. Then, there were no Hezbollah units and Iranians in Syria, and now Israel is fighting for the absence of their armed formations at least 100 km from its borders, and ideally, the situation returned to the pre-war level. But this is the fault of Israel itself and its cunning leadership.
    2. +2
      2 August 2018 09: 44
      If Erdogan asks for BRIGS, then why on earth does he need a NATO member? winked
    3. +2
      2 August 2018 11: 02
      Quote: APIS
      It cannot - it must!

      Agree to 100%.
    4. 0
      2 August 2018 11: 22
      Actually, this is an expected event, I won’t be surprised if the Omerigans are trampled from the base by the end of the year
  2. +4
    2 August 2018 09: 18
    if you would like, would have closed for a long time ... "would" - interfere? recourse
  3. +5
    2 August 2018 09: 18
    I think that the Americans have in reserve plans for the case of the collapse of Figs, but such a scenario is unlikely. Inzherlik for Turks is not so much an object as an instrument of bargaining with the United States. The Turks love to defiantly show that they make decisions themselves and do not tolerate Ugrians in their address, but they are not ready to actually break the military cooperation with the United States and NATO, as they cannot calculate the consequences.
    But Pastor Brunson is just the object of bargaining and bargaining, as the Turks need the United States to give them a renegade preacher.
    1. +1
      2 August 2018 09: 23
      The Turks calculated everything, and therefore can’t ... laughing
    2. MPN
      +1
      2 August 2018 09: 35
      Quote: Lunar Daemon
      because they can’t calculate the consequences.

      Here the United States will incur only moral costs, because the units of another NATO country will be based on the basis. And even the Turks will not lose anything. Therefore, one can talk about it painlessly, the NATO base will not be lost, it is too unprofitable for the Turks to leave unattended, although they are their own from NATO, but they are not very predictable and there is oil nearby.
  4. +1
    2 August 2018 09: 26
    A threat is often more effective than a completed event ... They will not close it. For the stakes are very high. They will threaten us - constantly ... A new attempt to "overthrow" the Sultan of the USA will be made - not soon ... They screwed up tightly ...
  5. +1
    2 August 2018 09: 32
    Oddly enough, the Turks are following in the footsteps of their best friends of Armenians in this matter! Although it can and vice versa ...!)))) Armenians here also constantly declare regarding the Russian base in Armenia - a holy place does not happen! Well, for a strong Turkish - Armenian friendship!))) Let's wave without looking! Keep silent for holiness ...
    1. +2
      2 August 2018 11: 22
      And where does the Armenians? Do you have facts or how Theresa May?
  6. +1
    2 August 2018 09: 37
    Well, I can’t say that this news is upsetting.
  7. +2
    2 August 2018 09: 48
    The Central Bank of Turkey recently increased its inflation forecast for 2018 and 2019. The projected price increase for this year was 13,4% (earlier it was mentioned 8,4%), on 2019-th - 9,3% (instead of 6,5%). Since the beginning of this year, the Turkish lira has lost 22% of its value.

    And all through the efforts of a partner and ally in NATO!
  8. +1
    2 August 2018 10: 19
    It’s time for the Turks to recall the proverb: “An old enemy is better than a new friend.” Russia and Iran for the Turks are old enemies, but not deadly: wars went on regularly - but with the goal of overcoming marginal vassal territory, without attempt on the heartland. But with the pin.dos ... Henry Kissinger said: "Enmity with the United States is dangerous, but being friends with the United States is mortally dangerous"
  9. +1
    2 August 2018 10: 57
    In any case, the Turks will not come out of NATO. Everyone saw Syria, Libya and Iraq
  10. +1
    2 August 2018 12: 02
    American expert: Ankara may close Incirlik base for US
    If Turkey is a sovereign state, then it must be closed so that then it does not open .... laughing
  11. 0
    2 August 2018 13: 54
    Quote: APIS
    It cannot - it must!

    Who and what? The Inzhirlik base is the NATO base, if my sclerosis does not fail me. Turkey, like the United States, is a member of NATO. It is another matter if the base were purely Turkish, and the Americans would be there under an interstate agreement. And so this is a concussion.
    tensions were between Turkey and other NATO countries before, at least during the Greek-Greek conflict, but even then they didn’t close it. A compromise will now be found. And the Americans will remain at the base, and the Turks will receive the F-35, and they will buy the S-400, and the Kurds will settle the issue one way or another

    Quote: nikoliski
    Americans have already evacuated nuclear bombs from this base,

    They planned. But evacuated or not - is unknown. They should have been in Devesela, but there first you need to create the appropriate infrastructure based on
  12. 0
    2 August 2018 16: 04
    Well, you can endlessly discuss whether it can close or not, there such politicians of easy virtue rule that they wave to all sides and constantly, their behavior is completely unpredictable, today they curse tomorrow again under the FSH.
  13. +1
    2 August 2018 20: 26
    It’s just to hypothetically consider such a question that Ankara will invite Russians to Incirlik in the place of the Americans (just so that it would be more successful to bargain with the USA)
    The Pentagon will clog the sewer
  14. 0
    3 August 2018 18: 46
    Turkey, as always, is on a sharper knife than ours, but this time this focus may end in failure, Erdogan must decide either to continue to create peace with Russia on the planet EARTH, or to destroy the planet EARTH with jackals
  15. 0
    3 August 2018 19: 41
    To whom, these games are like a bad game of football, I will give you a pass and you kick the ball wherever you are and let the one who took the ball is responsible for everything.

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