In response, Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran would face "unprecedented consequences" if he continued to threaten the United States, and received a warning from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Kasemi, who said Iran would retaliate if the United States tried to block oil exports from the country.
And then the “discussion” was joined by the head of the special forces “Quds” of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), General Kasem Suleymani, stressing that Iran is ready to confront the United States, and the threats of Trump Tehran are not impressive.
“You will start a war, we will end it. Go ask your predecessors. Do not threaten us. We are ready to confront you, ”the agency Tasnim cites the words of a general who addressed Trump.
That is, the current situation is very similar to the confrontation between the USA and the DPRK. However, the “Iranian problem” is much more complicated and ambiguous. At least because of the number of players involved in it, whose interests it directly affects.
Take, for example, Saudi Arabia and the oil monarchies allied to it, who are struggling to use Trump's anti-Iranian mood to settle accounts with their main geopolitical adversary.
So, Riyadh resorted to oil blackmail. After the rocket attack of the Hussites of a Saudi Arabian Navy warship carrying out a combat mission off the west coast of Yemen, the Saudis declared an “attack on tankers” in the Red Sea and stopped exporting (however, the exact area of attack and damage information were not specified).
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said that the kingdom unilaterally and indefinitely imposed a ban on the passage of oil tankers in the Red Sea, off the west coast of Yemen. “The ban will last until the situation becomes clear (with trade navigation) in the waters of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and sea transit becomes safe,” said a Saudi minister.
Following him, Kuwait declared about the readiness to suspend oil supplies through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
We note that earlier the warships of the Saudi coalition acting against the Houthis were subject to reciprocal fire effects, but no one raised the question of the threat to commercial shipping.
Recall that the Yemeni Shiite rebels associated with Tehran, and Saudi Arabia seeks to provoke discontent with Iran in the world by its actions. In fact, we are talking about the real “oil blackmail” of importers of Saudi and possibly Kuwaiti oil.
It is likely that it is addressed primarily to the EU countries, which, despite pressure from Washington, continue to attempt to maintain an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program and reject the sanctions imposed by Washington against Iran, and countries that continue to cooperate with it.
One of the leading Iranian political scientist Karine Gevorgyan points out that the sanctions that Washington intends to impose on Europe are no less beaten than Iran. And "it seems that the American administration is doing everything to weaken Europe."
A definite confirmation of this is the recent statement by the official adviser and representative of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) on foreign policy issues at the Foreign Ministry Niels Annen (he is known as one of the supporters of maintaining the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan on the Iranian nuclear program). In an interview with the Indian news portal News18, he noted that Washington’s attempts to get its allies and partners to abandon Iranian oil are “annoying”.
“This (the decision to respect or not comply with the US sanctions) should be the sovereign decision of India,” said Annen. “I am not an Iranian traveling salesman and I do not protect Iran’s trade interests, but I got the impression that India wants to continue to buy oil from Tehran.”
By the way, India is among the top three oil importers from Iran. But after the US representative to the UN’s visit to Delhi, Nikki Haley began to receive serious signals about the country's leadership’s readiness to comply with the US sanctions.
And this is despite the fact that back in May, the Modi government announced that it recognized only UN sanctions and did not intend to obey anyone else, even the US.
That is why Nils Annen, who seeks to convince the Indians to keep the former volume of purchases of Iranian oil, speaks of the need to quickly establish a financial mechanism to overcome the US sanctions.
We also note that very large importers are US allies such as Japan and South Korea, and they are not yet ready to abandon Iranian energy resources. This is not to mention China.
Undoubtedly, one of the important cards in Iranian solitaire is Israel, which is considered to be almost the main enemy and antagonist of Iran.
There is an opinion that Tel Aviv is one of the main initiators of the current crisis, which began with the US withdrawal from the DFAC, largely initiated by Israeli lobbyists who have strong positions surrounded by Donald Trump.
As you know, Israel is extremely concerned about strengthening Iran’s position in Syria, in which it sees a threat to its national security. Trying to hinder the advancement of pro-Iranian proxies to its borders, he constantly denotes “red lines”, which, by the way, are also constantly violated. How likely is the prospect of a war between Iran and Israel, the threat of which is spoken by many observers?
Direct military conflict between these countries is unlikely. The “weight categories” of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Jewish state are not comparable, despite the fact that the latter had nuclear weaponsand the analogy with David and Goliath, so beloved by the Israeli media, is hardly appropriate here. Tel Aviv simply does not have enough forces necessary for a war with Iran. The maximum that he is capable of is the application of an air or missile strike, which not only does not solve anything, but aggravates the situation.
Iran will not directly attack Israel. Not only because of nuclear weapons, but also because such a move would almost completely mean a war with the United States, which Tehran, despite terrible statements, still tries to avoid with all its might.
Nevertheless, the hybrid war of the two countries using the proxy will continue further, including in the territory of the SAR.
As is known, there are no regular Iranian troops in Syria, which leaves Tehran considerable room for maneuver even in the case of Israeli attacks on pro-Iranian forces.
It is possible that Israel would be completely satisfied if the United States would assume the main role in the war with Iran. However, this possibility is unlikely.
“The Pentagon at one time considered the possibility of a military operation against Iran, and it turned out that we need a ground contingent of about 800 thousands, no one has this. There is no one to fight, ”points out Karine Gevorgyan. On the possibilities of direct action against Iran, the Saudi coalition, which is unable to cope with the rebels in Yemen, and say no.
As we see, the probability of a war of the USA and its Middle Eastern allies against Iran is, fortunately, not great. However, as the ability of the United States to strangle Iran economically. There is no doubt that the US sanctions in any case will not be supported by Russia and China, as well as by some other countries. And this means that, despite all the difficulties, Tehran will be able to survive.
But the introduction of sanctions, without a doubt, will further worsen the already extremely tense relations between the United States and its European allies.