Iran: better bomb than war?
I. The destruction of America, Israel, the countries of NATO, Afghanistan, Eastern Europe and the planet Earth
Blogger Alexander Higgins пишет: “By all means and under any possible pretext, the Pentagon conducted military training. Israel has deployed its Iron Dome missile defense system. Top military officials have guaranteed that the fleet assembled in the Persian Gulf is able to neutralize the threat of Iran fleet and mines deployed in the Strait of Hormuz. The US and its allies have stopped importing Iranian oil and secured Saudi guarantees that the loss of Iranian oil will be reimbursed. Dozens of military bases surrounding Iran have plans to strike. Hundreds of Tomahawk warheads were assigned targets in the infrastructure; when targets are hit, Iranian defenses must be destroyed. Thousands have been adopted drones- spies who monitor every inch of Iranian soil in real time. Stealth bombers received flight plans escorted by B-52 bombers. The journalists are already there, ready to report. The stage is ready, all systems are on the move ... "
Well, everything seems. Day, two at most - and as a result of a clearly planned 21st century blitzkrieg, Iran will have only oil fields operating in the USA.
But no. Higgins leads to the fact that the heads will remain from the United States - it is only the last one to pop into Iranian territory. Though from the air, even on the ground. The result will be one: "Obama Kaput."
Why does Iran win in a possible war? Higgins names exactly ten reasons.
1. American technology "Stealth", which now owns the enemy. After all, recently Iran picked up a fallen stealth drone and soon reported that its technology has been studied: now invisible are visible to radar. The Americans declared it "propaganda," but who knows ...
2. Another technology that Iran has taken over is the principles of controlling unmanned aerial vehicles and rocket aiming.
Iran warned, the blogger wrote, that the top-secret technology of remotely controlled aircraft was also hacked. In the United States and this statement was treated not so arrogantly, or contemptuously. (Well, we note in brackets, the hegemon has long been accustomed to play its part). However, Iran, Higgins continues, can already not only intercept satellite signals, but also send its control signals to the high-tech weapons systems of the United States. And then the most terrible thing: “When stealth bombers approach their targets in Iran, the US will launch Tomahawk missiles, expecting hundreds of the most important Iranian facilities to be destroyed in a matter of minutes. Without taking into account the fact that when the rockets are in the air, Iran will change the coordinates on the rockets and direct them to completely different objects. ”
3. The next point, on which America will lose, is a reflection of electromagnetic impulses and rocket fire that will erase the military bases of the USA and Israel from the map.
Here, the blogger writes about the absolute confidence of the United States, Israel and Turkey in the reliability of the Iron Dome missile defense system. But Iran is aware that its missiles cannot overcome missile defense, therefore, developed a plan to bypass not only the anti-missile system, but also the power systems and electronic equipment in the location of the missile defense. It's all about electronic devices. There is a series of Iranian missiles, which is equipped with electromagnetic impulse warheads capable of creating a destructive blast wave. It will also destroy all electronic devices - right at the moment when the missiles will be knocked down by the “dome” antimissiles. Tel Aviv plunges into darkness. The military will have time to understand what happened, but they will not be able to do anything: "... the city will be turned into rubble in minutes, if rockets appear again over Tel Aviv." And they, of course, will appear ... And then, by analogy, Iran will act "with other Israeli cities, NATO bases in Turkey, and dozens of US military bases around Iran ..."
Here Higgins seems to have reached the scenario of a third world war. So far, probably not even in Israel.
4. Mine torpedoes. They will disable the US fleet, and then Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz.
"Understanding the impossibility of resisting the power of the US Navy, as well as the fact that ground-based rocket launchers could be attacked from the air, the Iranians spent years building secret tunnels and underground bases." That is, the Iranians, according to Higgins, acted approximately like the characters of A. Green's novel “The Road to Nowhere”.
The tunnels, reports Higgins, were dug to the underwater launch pits along the coastline. From there you can mine and make rocket shots without risking being seen by the enemy.
The rockets will be shot down, the “dome” destroyed, there will be darkness all around, and then the American fleet will undergo a torpedo attack. For American commanders, the blogger asserts, “it will be a surprise whence these missiles come from.” (In vain Higgins gave the Americans an Iranian secret). Having neutralized the military threat, Iran, according to Higgins, will use hundreds of sea mines in the gulf and will block the Strait of Hormuz.
5. And then Iran will disable the oil pipelines of Saudi Arabia. Suad oil storage tanks Iran will also destroy.
At this point
It is up to the oppositionists and revolutionaries of all stripes and shades. And what remains in the world of fuel, the military will quickly devour their equipment.
6. The plot on the ancient Greek theme: "Trojan horses" of Iranian production.
This picture plot is absolutely fantastic. According to the author, in preparation for war, Iran will begin to intensively deploy the whole “armada” of Trojan horses around the world. What kind of horses are these? Not those fastidious about whom Vysotsky sang. These are tankers owned by some Iranian network of oil and transport companies. (I don’t know how quickly you can arrange such a “network of companies” around the world. Especially with the system of sanctions against Iran). Hundreds of oil tankers, Higgins writes, will be secretly equipped with explosives and monitored via satellite. At the right moment, these huge tankers, stationed in western ports and full of oil, will begin to explode, "disabling key ports needed to service commercial and military supply lines."
At the same time, other cargo tankers - another type of Trojan horses - will begin to imitate the Somali pirates and attack cargo ships "around the world." And the very Armageddon is here: “Even more sinister is the secret that lies deep under the oil of 55-gallon Iranian barrels - explosives and detonators. By the time the war breaks out, barrels filled with explosives full of oil will spread around the world. When Iran "presses the button," tens of thousands of factories, warehouses and arsenals around the world will disappear in clouds of smoke. "
I wonder who would destroy Iran in this way? Maybe China? India? At the time of the sanctions, the number of buyers of these very 55-gallon barrels was significantly reduced. Iran himself reduced them with his counter-sanctions.
7. It is clear that without a cyber war in the script is not enough. “Sleeping superviruses will be set free in an apocalyptic cyber attack,” is how stylish the author writes. According to him, if the United States and Israel infected computer systems around the world with the Staxnet virus, Iran changed the code and rewrote the virus, so as to target the infrastructure of the United States and other developed countries. While the virus is sleeping. But, as soon as the attack on Iran occurs, the modified Staxnet 2.0 activates and renders the entire US energy supply system inoperable, i.e., it will send the country to the Stone Age. And then ... Then Iran will unveil a number of vulnerabilities in American cyber security systems that its intelligence has been finding for many years, "and within a few hours a global network of hundreds of thousands of hackers would disable the nuclear facilities, the entire US power supply system, US satellites and other systems that ensure the daily lives of citizens. "
Probably, there are already hundreds of thousands of hackers in the world who, by a single order, are ready to oppose the United States. The whole electronic army.
8. Here some "sleeping agents" come into play.
Iran will create (or has already created?) In Mexico “a complex smuggling network weapons". Hezbollah is used to penetrate Mexican drug cartels. After the attack on Iran, Iran’s special agents in Mexico will postpone their petty affairs and launch attacks along the Mexican border. The cartels will gladly provide their fighters, the blogger notes, because the unstable situation facilitates drug trafficking. And cocaine profits will increase. The fighters from drug cartels and agents will start fighting well so that “the destruction of a number of targets at the border will bring the entire territory under the control of drug cartels and Iranian agents of Hezbollah.” In short, the entire border between Mexico and the United States "will turn into an uncontrolled combat zone." This is how far the punishing hand of Iran is.
9. Muslim vector.
Muslims who have long been dissatisfied with the United States, among them extremists who "sympathize with Iran, Palestine and other Islamic countries that have become the target of the United States in the war on terror", will launch attacks on key civilian infrastructure in America: railroads, railway stations, bridges, "flooded places" etc. And not only in America, the orgy of attacks will begin, but also in the countries-allies of the world hegemon, including NATO.
10. Here, the blogger logically proceeds to the scenario of the Third World War: “... China, Russia and India that smelled of blood are becoming more active ...” In addition, “hundreds of thousands of Russian and Chinese sleeping agents” will rise within the United States. And after the agents' awakening, the intelligent Chinese "will activate the switches that they have incorporated into all American and civilian military computers and electronic devices, and the US Army is quickly aware" of what is made in USA.
Russia will take the example of Iran and launch impulse missiles on the NATO missile system, making it useless. Then the Russian Federation will deploy its army and air force to attack Eastern Europe and Afghanistan. At the same time, she will join China in his campaign of cyber attacks and the destruction of American satellites. And then for some reason, hackers use the newly modified - already Chinese - Staxnet (version 3.0) in order to blow up nuclear missiles all over the world (by means of self-exploding).
Virus version 3.0, of course, a serious thing, but why should Chinese hackers arrange the end of the world? ..
Ii. Who is worse: Iran or Israel?
Walter Pincus of The Washington Post, referring to the arguments of authoritative Paul Pillar, argues on the subject of how dangerous would be Iran, which owns nuclear weapons. Pincus, or, more precisely, Pillar, comes to the conclusion: no more dangerous than the present-day Iran, because the present-day Iran is not ruled by fools. Let's see what evidence Pillar leads in evidence in favor of his geopolitical theory of a peaceful Iran.
Paul Pillar is a former senior CIA analyst and state intelligence officer in the Middle East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005, who retired. Pillar is currently lecturing at Georgetown University. He had previously participated in events when the CIA had doubts about the weapons of mass destruction in Saddam Hussein that the Bush administration had ignored.
In one of the issues of the Washington Monthly magazine, Pillar spoke on the Iranian topic: “Iran with an atomic bomb will not be as dangerous as it is now believed, but a war to try to prevent it from getting this bomb will be less successful and much more expensive than many imagine. "
A common opinion, says Pillar, is that the Tehran leaders, having acquired nuclear weapons, will become dangerous for their neighbors and the United States. Many leaders of Iran unjustly call “religious fanatics who value martyrdom more than life”; they allegedly "act irrationally, and therefore they cannot be restrained." Pillar's argument: "... the last 30 years have shown that, although they have encouraged martyrdom to protect their country, they have never shown a desire to become these martyrs themselves."
Iranian leaders have no reason, according to Pillar, to lose control over nuclear weapons. Tehran will use nuclear weapons only for self-defense.
Pillar also asks why any attack by Israel or the United States against Iran — with the goal of ending its nuclear program — is considered the “best choice” of the scenario, but the “worst option” is certainly the one where Iran gets the atomic bomb. Whether the armed attack of Israel or the United States was analyzed taking into account the “worst case” scenario, Pillar writes, “we would have heard of a grandiose regional conflict involving numerous American allies, after the first strike pulling enormous forces from the United States.”
By the way, according to Pillar, even if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, "Israel will retain an overwhelming military superiority with its nuclear arsenal, which, according to international estimates, has at least 100, and, possibly, 200 warheads."
Thus, Pillar gently hints that nuclear Israel and US nuclear, colorfully writing out the “worst scenario”, forget that they themselves could be the perpetrators of a completely different worst scenario.
And it cannot be said that some of the consequences of this contemplating “worst scenario” (for the time being - economic) are already felt by the Israelis today.
Iii. Tons of ink against gallons of gasoline
Eyal Horowitz in the Israeli edition of Maariv пишет: “Tons of ink were spent on analytical predictions and the creation of apocalyptic scenarios of developments related to the Iranian atomic problem. Numerous observers and experts are trying to anticipate a situation in which Ahmadinejad will order an Israeli bombing. But no one has yet assumed that the Iranian threat is not a question of the future, but what is happening to us now. ”
The phrase “Iranian threat” here has an ironic meaning.
The author sees this "threat" in the prices at gas stations. “And the more pressure on Iran will increase, the higher the price of fuel will become,” writes Eyal Horowitz. - But this is only the beginning. Imagine a situation in which Iran completely stops supplying oil to all countries of the world or supplies this product exclusively to Arab countries. ”
The next stage in the development of negative events is the withdrawal of investors from the Israeli market. You never know: after all, war can begin ... Transactions are canceled, investors abandon their previous plans ... “The Iranian crisis,” the author notes, “seems to me much more complicated than it seems at first glance. On the one hand, the methods of pressure on Iran seem vital in order to prevent further development of Tehran’s nuclear project. On the other hand, the use of these methods is fraught with danger, which can be much greater than the Iranian atom. ”
Conclusion: Yes, Israel is obliged to make efforts to prevent Tehran from creating nuclear weapons, but it does not need to behave in the manner of a hysterical woman. Hysteria can cost the country expensive. By “expensive,” the author means not at all the Iranian atomic bomb dropped on Israel, but an economic catastrophe caused by a shortage or high cost of energy.
And this is true. Not without reason, Iran successfully applies oil counter-sanctions, which have made noise and even raised a slight panic in the European Union.
In addition, the US has repeatedly told Israel that they are not ready to fight with Iran, and Israel alone, even with anti-bunker bombs, but without allies, will never decide to attack Iran.
America, criticizing Iran and applying “sanctions”, cooperates with Iran in practice. This is not a joke and, I hope, not a “duck” - that is, not propaganda.
Reza Sajjadi, Iranian Ambassador to Russia, the other day wrote in your blog:
"My dear friends,
Did you know that America’s exports to Iran increased by 2010% compared to 2011 in the year of 10?
And this is in conditions when America declares that it imposes sanctions on any country or company that cooperates with Iran! In the 2011, the New York Times article reported that America is the biggest violator of sanctions against Iran.
During the attack of Saddam Hussein, Iran was under the influence of Western sanctions on arms supplies. In 1986, America sent Macfarlane to Iran on an airplane full of weapons. Later this political scandal became known as Irangate (like Nixon's Watergate).
This behavior of America means that some important markets should be reserved for America - and only for it alone. And there America has the right to work under any conditions, while others are not allowed. And therefore I wouldn’t be too surprised if someone tells me that they have seen Patriot air defense systems in Iran — installed and ready to go! ”
“Patriot” is not “Patriot”, but it’s not necessary to be surprised that an American stealth drone appeared in Iran (no matter how it appeared). As for Washington’s requests to Tel Aviv to postpone the war with Tehran, everything is simple: in crisis America they began to realize that trading is more profitable than fighting and imposing sanctions. Soon it will be understood in the European Union, exhausted by economic problems.
- especially for topwar.ru
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