Trojan horses in the SCO?
In addition to preparing a document for signing by the heads of state at the June 6-7 summit, it is planned that at this particular time the SCO is waiting for a certain kind of expansion. Afghanistan is likely to receive observer status, and Turkey may acquire the status of a dialogue partner.
It is worth recalling that today, in addition to the direct members of the SCO (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), this organization includes as observers: Iran, India, Mongolia and Pakistan. The dialogue partners include Belarus and Sri Lanka. If Afghanistan and Turkey, one way or another, join the SCO, then the organization can already be called the Eurasian giant.
What prospects are seen for the SCO in obtaining new statuses relating to the membership of Turkey and Afghanistan in this organization?
First, you need to immediately place accents. This is not about accepting these two countries as direct members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in early June 2012. The right of an observer and a dialogue partner does not allow countries to fully participate in the decision-making of the SCO High Council and gain access to closed documents. However, partnership sees the possibility of establishing a truly constructive dialogue between states.
Secondly, we must not forget that the SCO does not position itself as a military bloc. After all, if we talk about the SCO as a bloc not without a military component, it becomes completely incomprehensible how the Turkish delegation is going to work in it, because Turkey has been a member of the North Atlantic Alliance for many years. Is that the position of "misguided Cossack."
By the way, the hypothetical expansion of the SCO raises some doubts among experts. In particular, a representative of the Institute of Strategic Studies of Mongolia noted that the increase in the number of members and observers of the SCO can not only not become stronger, but even lose. At the same time, Turkey’s possible entry into the SCO raises the biggest questions for observers and dialogue partners. Let's not forget that at the moment even a possible membership in one organization (without taking into account the UN, which is difficult to call a single organism), Iran and Turkey can mean the emergence of a rather serious set of problems.
If Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has decided to go for rapprochement with the SCO, then for the West this means that Turkey is ready to take another step towards rapprochement with Iran. In all likelihood, Turkey has finally decided to show the European Union that if he does not want to go to Ankara for a meeting, then she (Ankara) is ready to go a little different way. At the same time, Turkey is obviously not indifferent about the status of the organization with which she would like to contact. It is the political and economic status that allows Ankara to come closer to consolidation with the SCO.
In this regard, such a move by Erdogan can be considered another injection to the address of Tel Aviv, which, for natural reasons, does not want Iran to have at least hypothetical allies, because the problem of an Israeli strike on Iran is still floating in the air.
If Turkey becomes a partner in the dialogue of the SCO, then for the same Iran this may mean the possibility of obtaining new markets for its oil products, which, after news of the embargo, have ceased to enter the European market.
However, it is not only Turkey who is seen in the SCO as a disturber of world “peace”. Observers such as India and Pakistan are also named among the countries that can jointly provoke a weakening of the organization. However, once again it should be noted that the SCO does not have military status, and its leaders do not accept declarations about the need to fight shoulder to shoulder for the military personnel of the member states. The SCO may well do without military fraternization and become a kind of regional counterpart of the UN (in the best sense of the word). If the course towards integration into the SCO will continue, the union of nations in this case may be far from empty. At the same time, the unification will be based not on the ephemeral "democratizing ideals" and "party contributions" of the USA, but on real economic cooperation, which can bring huge benefits.
Based on this, critics of the SCO expansion state: Good! Well, let Turkey. A country with a strong economy, developed capacities, serious resources. But why does the SCO need Afghanistan? Few poor countries are listed as members or as observers. The organization itself responds to this that without Afghanistan it is impossible to resolve one of the strategic issues - reducing drug trafficking from this Central Asian country. If Afghanistan enters the SCO under this or that status, it will mean that the SCO will have leverage on the Afghan drug trafficking system. This is even more relevant due to the fact that the NATO military contingent must be withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2014 year.
But here another question arises: why do we need to go for rapprochement with the SCO to Afghanistan itself? After all, it is no secret that it is precisely drug trafficking that gives a serious influx of finances to the treasury of the Islamic Republic. And here, really, there is something to ponder. First, even after Afghanistan can become a full member of the SCO, no one can guarantee that representatives of the SCO will be able to send their policies on the territory of this country. Secondly, the Americans cannot afford to “lose” Afghanistan from their hands. It turns out that Afghanistan, in this case, resembles a sort of Trojan horse, which will enter - will enter, but that, as they say, then comes out of it - is a completely different question. Therefore, concerns about the entry into the SCO of new observers and dialogue partners cannot be ignored.
Ultimately, the world already has at least one example of virtually uncontrolled expansion - NATO. Practically inconceivable contradictions between the members of this organization arise here more often: for example, Turkey and France, Turkey and Greece ... After the countries of the former Warsaw Pact and the former Soviet Republics of NATO were accepted into NATO, NATO began to look more and more like a colossus that thin on Eastern European legs. parasites.
It remains to rely on the fact that the policy of expanding the SCO will proceed from real expediency, and not from letting anyone in this world release a salt charge in a soft spot. Although, this is exactly the case when one does not interfere with the other ...
Materials used:
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1932571
http://www.iran.ru/rus/news_iran.php?act=news_by_id&news_id=80483
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