Trojan horses in the SCO?

13
Not long ago, a meeting of the heads of diplomacy of the countries participating in the SCO was held in Beijing. The foreign ministers of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have adopted a number of agreements that outline the agenda of the summit of the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, scheduled for early June. The main points of the prepared document are that the SCO member states will jointly resist the threats of the intervention of third countries in the internal state policy. It is obvious that the SCO is trying to work out a common opinion about the policy of the United States and, it must be admitted, that while the views of the parties on this problem are the same as never before.

In addition to preparing a document for signing by the heads of state at the June 6-7 summit, it is planned that at this particular time the SCO is waiting for a certain kind of expansion. Afghanistan is likely to receive observer status, and Turkey may acquire the status of a dialogue partner.

It is worth recalling that today, in addition to the direct members of the SCO (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), this organization includes as observers: Iran, India, Mongolia and Pakistan. The dialogue partners include Belarus and Sri Lanka. If Afghanistan and Turkey, one way or another, join the SCO, then the organization can already be called the Eurasian giant.

What prospects are seen for the SCO in obtaining new statuses relating to the membership of Turkey and Afghanistan in this organization?
First, you need to immediately place accents. This is not about accepting these two countries as direct members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in early June 2012. The right of an observer and a dialogue partner does not allow countries to fully participate in the decision-making of the SCO High Council and gain access to closed documents. However, partnership sees the possibility of establishing a truly constructive dialogue between states.

Secondly, we must not forget that the SCO does not position itself as a military bloc. After all, if we talk about the SCO as a bloc not without a military component, it becomes completely incomprehensible how the Turkish delegation is going to work in it, because Turkey has been a member of the North Atlantic Alliance for many years. Is that the position of "misguided Cossack."

By the way, the hypothetical expansion of the SCO raises some doubts among experts. In particular, a representative of the Institute of Strategic Studies of Mongolia noted that the increase in the number of members and observers of the SCO can not only not become stronger, but even lose. At the same time, Turkey’s possible entry into the SCO raises the biggest questions for observers and dialogue partners. Let's not forget that at the moment even a possible membership in one organization (without taking into account the UN, which is difficult to call a single organism), Iran and Turkey can mean the emergence of a rather serious set of problems.

If Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has decided to go for rapprochement with the SCO, then for the West this means that Turkey is ready to take another step towards rapprochement with Iran. In all likelihood, Turkey has finally decided to show the European Union that if he does not want to go to Ankara for a meeting, then she (Ankara) is ready to go a little different way. At the same time, Turkey is obviously not indifferent about the status of the organization with which she would like to contact. It is the political and economic status that allows Ankara to come closer to consolidation with the SCO.

In this regard, such a move by Erdogan can be considered another injection to the address of Tel Aviv, which, for natural reasons, does not want Iran to have at least hypothetical allies, because the problem of an Israeli strike on Iran is still floating in the air.

If Turkey becomes a partner in the dialogue of the SCO, then for the same Iran this may mean the possibility of obtaining new markets for its oil products, which, after news of the embargo, have ceased to enter the European market.

However, it is not only Turkey who is seen in the SCO as a disturber of world “peace”. Observers such as India and Pakistan are also named among the countries that can jointly provoke a weakening of the organization. However, once again it should be noted that the SCO does not have military status, and its leaders do not accept declarations about the need to fight shoulder to shoulder for the military personnel of the member states. The SCO may well do without military fraternization and become a kind of regional counterpart of the UN (in the best sense of the word). If the course towards integration into the SCO will continue, the union of nations in this case may be far from empty. At the same time, the unification will be based not on the ephemeral "democratizing ideals" and "party contributions" of the USA, but on real economic cooperation, which can bring huge benefits.

Based on this, critics of the SCO expansion state: Good! Well, let Turkey. A country with a strong economy, developed capacities, serious resources. But why does the SCO need Afghanistan? Few poor countries are listed as members or as observers. The organization itself responds to this that without Afghanistan it is impossible to resolve one of the strategic issues - reducing drug trafficking from this Central Asian country. If Afghanistan enters the SCO under this or that status, it will mean that the SCO will have leverage on the Afghan drug trafficking system. This is even more relevant due to the fact that the NATO military contingent must be withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2014 year.

But here another question arises: why do we need to go for rapprochement with the SCO to Afghanistan itself? After all, it is no secret that it is precisely drug trafficking that gives a serious influx of finances to the treasury of the Islamic Republic. And here, really, there is something to ponder. First, even after Afghanistan can become a full member of the SCO, no one can guarantee that representatives of the SCO will be able to send their policies on the territory of this country. Secondly, the Americans cannot afford to “lose” Afghanistan from their hands. It turns out that Afghanistan, in this case, resembles a sort of Trojan horse, which will enter - will enter, but that, as they say, then comes out of it - is a completely different question. Therefore, concerns about the entry into the SCO of new observers and dialogue partners cannot be ignored.

Ultimately, the world already has at least one example of virtually uncontrolled expansion - NATO. Practically inconceivable contradictions between the members of this organization arise here more often: for example, Turkey and France, Turkey and Greece ... After the countries of the former Warsaw Pact and the former Soviet Republics of NATO were accepted into NATO, NATO began to look more and more like a colossus that thin on Eastern European legs. parasites.

It remains to rely on the fact that the policy of expanding the SCO will proceed from real expediency, and not from letting anyone in this world release a salt charge in a soft spot. Although, this is exactly the case when one does not interfere with the other ...

Materials used:
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1932571
http://www.iran.ru/rus/news_iran.php?act=news_by_id&news_id=80483
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13 comments
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  1. +3
    16 May 2012 09: 37
    The observer status does not, in principle, give any benefits to states ... But the expansion of the organization will lead to the fact that on some issues it will be possible to develop a single position and defend it in the same UN .... So I think the author’s fear is contrived ... The SCO countries fully understand both their own and other people's tasks and solve them at their own, SCO level .. And this makes it possible to avoid the pressure of some other friends
    1. YARY
      +3
      16 May 2012 10: 11
      Good day Alexander
      I completely agree with you, and what's more, my supplement is a loophole for all kinds of sanctions, and there is also no need to ignore some identity with BRICS. The probabilities of the development of both structures in the future. And the possible flow of some members from one structure to another. Interests amusing thing. recourse
      1. teves
        -3
        16 May 2012 10: 51
        In general, in principle, the meaning of the creation of the SCO and its specific activities are not clear. Countries are too different ... Another "paper" anti-NATa laughing
        1. 11Goor11
          +4
          16 May 2012 12: 34
          citation:
          SCO could do without military fraternization and become
          some regional counterpart to the UN
          (in the good sense of the word).


          This is our answer to Mr. teves-y
          class! good
      2. +2
        16 May 2012 10: 52
        YARYInterests are a funny thing. smile This is called politics in all colors, versatility and unpredictability!
        1. 755962
          0
          16 May 2012 22: 03
          For Turkey, a window to Europe does not open in any way, Ankara faces a choice, which is more important: to strengthen its position in the Muslim world or to continue sitting on the threshold of the European Union in anticipation of full membership. Turkish President Abdullah Gul said that in the future Turkey may not want to become a member of the European Union and will follow the path of Norway. Ankara realizes the difficulty of accepting the country into the EU at the present time, and the majority of the country's population has a rather negative attitude towards this prospect. Apparently, Ankara is finally disillusioned with the prospects for integration into the European Community, and began to pay more attention to the political struggle for the role of mediator in the settlement of the Middle East conflict, in particular, in the possible settlement of the internal situation in Syria. Turkey does not hide the fact that in the future it can become an arbiter in Syrian-Israeli relations, as well as actively participate in the Palestinian dialogue between the Fatah and Hamas movements.
        2. gor
          gor
          0
          17 May 2012 08: 29
          it is more like that there was not enough space in the sandbox and no one paid attention and those who did not pay attention so they sat next to the sandbox and play with each other. UN analog, antinato is all .... the green mare and speaks only about the fact that these countries do not have any clear and well-thought-out policies.
          1. 0
            17 May 2012 20: 06
            Moldova definitely doesn’t have it.))
            1. gor
              gor
              0
              18 May 2012 00: 53
              why are you Alexander Petrovich suffering so much that you feel sorry for you, and as you know, the cripples and the wretched are worthy of pity. you don’t suffer and go to where you can do big politics. I repeat the big one. for example, in the bathroom.
              I know what kind of policy you are dreaming about. You hope that your ass will be comfortable with that policy. Only the professional is in demand in any policy, but not in politics, on the contrary, you are an adept)))))))))))))))
  2. Vito
    +2
    16 May 2012 09: 48
    Yes, they scored allies in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, these guys are with us today, and tomorrow, for the American PERSONNEL, some sort of transshipment bases will be opened at home, and here is another powerful ally on the way to Afghanistan! Of course, you should not lose your comrades out of your influence, but you shouldn’t completely trust them that you don’t want to!
    1. Brother Sarych
      +4
      16 May 2012 12: 55
      Is China a reliable ally? India? What are they allies with? What the hell is something to fence? This is not a military bloc, it is intended to solve completely different issues!
      1. Vito
        0
        17 May 2012 09: 03
        Of course not a military man. Tajikistan will begin to press the army of the TALIBAN, and then we will therefore give Tajiks advice on how they would be unhappy to fight off bearded uncles, but to provide humanitarian assistance, so what happens? Probably all the same, what kind of obligations are taken in relation to each other or is this all garbage?
  3. +6
    16 May 2012 09: 56
    So try to figure it out in political games. What is beneficial and what is not. The devil himself will break his leg
  4. vladimir64ss
    +3
    16 May 2012 10: 23
    The SCO is interesting for having a platform for dialogue between Russia and China. Growing in allies, this force is now able to restrain the civilizational aggression of the West. And Volodin is right when he talks about the danger of eroding the positions of this potentially powerful organization.
  5. Artur09-75
    +3
    16 May 2012 10: 31
    No matter how Turkey positions itself, we should not forget that it is one of the most devoted satellites of the United States. And they still can not forget the former greatness of the Ottoman Empire. And in general, one should not closely cooperate with a NATO member country. A sent Cossack can do very much harm.
  6. Cadet787
    +3
    16 May 2012 10: 37
    Combining efforts of the SCO countries in any direction is better than contention and confrontation, and time will tell who is right or wrong.
    1. +3
      16 May 2012 10: 54
      Who is to blame and so it is clear. If it weren’t for Washington’s dubious policy, then no blocks were needed
  7. +1
    16 May 2012 12: 56
    Interesting article. The forecast of Turkey’s participation in the SCO is not unrealistic. There are political and economic reasons. Not everything is so good in the Eurohouse as the Euro-residents portray in their propaganda.
    1. 0
      16 May 2012 14: 51
      Quote: AK-74-1
      The forecast of Turkey’s participation in the SCO is not unrealistic.

      Here we are trying to drag Turkey, then the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles will be open, the main thing is that the military would again come to power.
  8. Comrad
    +1
    16 May 2012 15: 44
    What does "civilized" Europe and the Amer have? Acre of debt and ambition, it seems like nothing. At the same time, the SCO countries have everything else. The "newcomers" countries need to think about who is the future and who can be friends with!
  9. Odinplys
    +2
    17 May 2012 05: 19
    Besides Afghanistan ... there is nothing for the new members to do there ... maybe Pakistan ...
    India is not compatible with China ... Turkey, what region should she go there together with Nato unless ...
    A player with a different worldview ... ruins the whole game ...
  10. alt_r
    -1
    18 May 2012 07: 17
    Shanghai Five could turn into a full-fledged military bloc, a counterweight to NATO in Asia

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