It is clear that Prilepin’s question was expected, and Putin’s answer was prepared, in it every word has a meaning. In the first part of the answer, Vladimir Vladimirovich repeats his words to the same question in the 2016 year, when they also expected the approach of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbas. In the second part, Putin said something new: about “very serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood,” and answering the question of the adviser to the head of the DPR, which is hardly accidental.
In general, Washington is quite frankly pushing Poroshenko now to an offensive in the Donbas. US Special Envoy Kurt Volker began to incite “cynical Bandera” during his visit to Ukraine, along with supplies of Javelins, and US Secretary of Defense James Mattis 7 June continued at a meeting of NATO defense ministers with Stepan Poltorak: directly related to the security of the United States and NATO. Russia is violating international norms and rights. We consider it necessary to help Ukraine. ” NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg pointedly invited Poroshenko to the next summit.
At the same time, none of them speaks about the Minsk agreements, about the inadmissibility of a military solution of the issue, only about the "territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine." Previously, they did not do it so frankly. Poroshenko, as it were, said in a tone that “the Minsk format of negotiations does not exist.”
Moreover, Poroshenko allowed himself to say that "SP - 2" will not be implemented "! This brazen, provocative statement as if confirms the readiness to attack in the Donbass, since the escalation in the Donbass is the only opportunity for Kiev to thwart the construction of the joint venture 2, causing a new crisis in relations between Europe and Russia. Poroshenko repeats the statements of the United States on the "joint venture - 2", but in a more categorical form, which indicates who is behind the current escalation in the Donbas.
Only Russia now insists on the lack of an alternative to “Minsk”, the Norman guarantors repeat this thesis only when they meet with Putin, emphasizing the peacekeeping operation in the Donbas. And now Putin said about the "grave consequences for the Ukrainian statehood as a whole." These will be the consequences of what and what kind of response actions of Russia?
On the whole, Moscow says that the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas will lead to the collapse of the Minsk agreements, as a result of which “grave consequences” will come, but it is unlikely on the front line. There will be military consequences, Putin confirmed that Moscow will help Donetsk and Lugansk to repel the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In fact, Putin said that the consequences for the Ukrainian statehood could come as a result of the collapse of “Minsk”: Moscow hints that it will deny Kiev legitimacy, which rests only on the Minsk agreements. After that, Putin can view the Poroshenko regime as a “Bandera regime” and can relate to it in the same way as the US treats Bashar Assad, with all the ensuing grave consequences.
Because of the start of active hostilities in the Donbas, Moscow can suspend all relations with the “Bandera regime”, except for international gas transit, just as the United States acted against Cuba during the Caribbean crisis. It is enough for Moscow to stop supplies to Ukraine of all types of energy carriers, including nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants, and this will already lead to very serious consequences for “Ukrainian statehood”.
Kiev can respond by stopping the transit of Russian gas to Europe. This threat has hindered Moscow’s actions so far, but something has apparently changed. Perhaps the arbitrariness of the Stockholm arbitration has done its job. What will happen then? Energy prices in Europe will soar, but for this force majeure Kiev will be responsible for blocking transit.
Moscow due to rising prices may to some extent compensate for the decline in gas supplies to Europe. Interesting in this regard, Putin’s three-day visit to China at the SCO summit is clearly in contrast to the G7 summit, which went on the same days in Canada. Perhaps Russia hedges financially; in 2014, China itself offered financial aid to Russia. Russia was not invited to G7, while China refused such an invitation. True, President Trump unexpectedly announced the need to return Russia to this western club, but it seems too late, Russia will refuse after China in favor of the SCO.
After the military denunciation of “Minsk”, there can be no gas transit through Ukraine after 2019. Ukrainian transit will be stopped, and Germany with Europe may be left without gas, the Russian pipe in anticipation of the American shale. Construction of the “joint venture - 2” will then become a matter of economic survival for Europe.
After the refusal of the Bandera regime in legitimacy, Moscow can recognize the LDNR; the possibility of such a scenario is indicated by the participation of the adviser to the head of the DPR, Zakhar Prilepin, in Putin’s “Direct Line”. In the aggregate, all this will lead to "very serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood", so that the counter-offensive of the armed forces of Donetsk and Lugansk is not required. This will not be necessary.
June 9 held a telephone conversation between Putin and Petro Poroshenko (at the initiative of the latter). We discussed humanitarian issues on the exchange of detainees. It seems that this is nothing more than a convenient excuse. Petro asked: is there a place for him in Rostov?