The bluff of the Japanese premiere tired compatriots
How Japan Saved the American Dollar
It is believed that the reason for the frequent change of government lies in the long-term economic stagnation. This stagnation is man-made and even has its specific starting point - September 1985 of the year. By that time, Japan, as a result of the technological revolution and the development of foreign markets, had gained serious economic power and began to claim the place of the world's largest financial center.
At least, Japanese banks in terms of the volume of financial transactions and assets competed on an equal footing with such American giants as JPMorgan and Bank Of America. Moreover, due to low interest rates, the Central Bank of Japan willingly lent resources to investment banks, which have been active in both the Japanese stock market and the leading western markets.
It should be noted that at that time the economy of the United States was far from being in the best shape. Today, Americans boastfully tell how they demolished the Soviet Union. In fact, torn by an arms race, the United States was in deep crisis. The country was shaken by high inflation and unemployment.
From this collision, Washington was chosen with the help of Reaganomics — economic measures named after the then President Ronald Reagan. Ultimately, Reaganomics boosted the growth of the United States government debt and the work of the Federal Reserve's “printing press”. Because of this, the dollar began to lose its leading position in the world.
The way out was then found simple and clear - to adjust the exchange rates of the leading economies of the world in favor of the dollar. In September, 1985, this embarrassing topic at the New York Plaza Hotel was discussed by finance ministers and governors of the central banks of Japan, the USA, the UK, Germany and France.
We agreed to jointly support the overvalued dollar by raising the rates of other reserve currencies. History he is silent about what Finance Minister Takeshita Noboru and Bank of Japan Governor Sumita Satosi felt at the negotiations in the Plaza. However, they accepted the proposal of the Americans.
This entailed dramatic consequences for the entire Japanese economy. To understand them, compare the numbers. In September, the 1985 dollar was worth about 240 yen. They say Takeshita and Sumita agreed to raise the rate of their national currency to 200 yen for the US dollar. However, very soon the dollar fell to the level of 120 yen, fell by half.
The export-oriented economy of Japan could not withstand such a blow. Its growth has almost stopped. Immediately having lost their competitive advantages, Japan from the "economic miracle" slipped into many years of stagnation. Ten years later, Japanese economists called the new time of their country a “lost decade”, marking time on the spot. Now another term is in use - “the lost thirty years”.
"Sankey Shimbun" doubts ...
It is clear that the Japanese blame not the cheeky Americans, but their compliant leaders for the economic problems of the country. In addition, each new contender for the premier post promises to rectify the situation. Make it easy. Americans are closely watching the movement of Japanese hands and do not allow them to return the yen to the course advantageous to her.
On his first coming to power (in 2006), Shinzo Abe also promised the Japanese to revive the stagnant economy by devaluing the yen and doubling the money supply. The prime minister even came up with a new term for his policy - abenomics. However, he did not achieve great success. Cabinet Abe quickly drowned in financial scandals and corruption, and the prime minister chose to voluntarily resign for the good.
Five years later, Shinzo Abe returned to the premiership. This time, the Japanese were attracted not so much by economic initiatives, as by his promise to finally solve the problem of the so-called “northern territories” and return the four southern islands of the Kuril chain to Japanese control.
Strange, but in Japan Abe's promises were believed. For some reason, adult people, at the filing of the prime minister, seriously decided that Russia would dutifully abandon its acquisitions of World War II, which would ensure unhindered access to the Pacific Ocean for its naval ships fleet.
Shinzo Abe tried. He introduced into the system regular meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, at which the Kuril Islands belonged. Japanese nationalists started talking about her immediately after the war. Over time, the return of the islands gave the character of almost the main state problems of Japan, and even established the annually marked day of the "northern territories".
It is interesting that the Japanese territories, which are still occupied by the United States, and the subordinate position of Japan that lost the war in relation to America, in Tokyo prefer to keep quiet. "Couples discontent" splashes solely on the accessories of the Kuril Islands.
Abe skillfully uses it. From each meeting with Putin, he isolates the "shifts" and presents them to society as real steps towards the goal. Here Russia opened the island to the Japanese for a visit, agreed on the possibility of joint economic activity, and here it gave Japanese companies preferences ...
It seemed that the islands were slowly and confidently sailing to Japanese jurisdiction. Under this obvious bluff, the Japanese pardoned the prime minister for financial irregularities, miscalculations and mistakes. Last year, for example, Abe was convicted of state support for a major project of his close comrade. Then there was a scandal with the premier's wife, who arranged for the protection of a private educational school.
The prime minister's rating fell, but a new batch of promises to “return the northern territories to the current generation” helped Abe to get out of a delicate situation. True, the Japanese have already accumulated fatigue from endless promises. Having cooled down, they began to look at the problem realistically and understand: no one is going to share territories with them.
The nationalist Japanese newspaper Sankey Shimbun began to see the other day. After the recent meetings between Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe in St. Petersburg and Moscow, the newspaper concluded: “The road to returning the four islands is not visible,” and made this discovery in the title of the article.
Sankey Shimbun is one of the five largest newspapers in Japan and has a significant impact on society. Therefore, newspaper dissatisfaction with Abe’s policies can cost him dearly. Sankey blames its prime minister for flexibility and slowness. The newspaper doubted that the “new approach” declared by Shinzo Abe (implying the provision of extraterritorial rights to the Japanese in the Kuriles and the non-proliferation of the laws of Russia on them) would be agreed by the Russian government. After all, it will be a gross violation of Russia's sovereignty.
“The Japanese side suggests starting activities in such areas as aquaculture, greenhouse cultivation of vegetables, and so on. However, it is not at all clear how this could lead to the return of territories? ”, The newspaper asks. The nationalist edition does not suit the simple mutually beneficial cooperation of the companies of the two countries.
Shinzo Abe has already managed to teach the Japanese that all his actions in relations with the leaders of Russia are subordinated to the same goal - to regain control of the southern Kurils. Now it turns out that this goal is far and unattainable, and the premier’s long-term promises are just a political bluff, with which Abe keeps a record six years in power.
Years of bluff began to crumble like a house of cards, and once again the topic of speeding up the growth of the Japanese economy was on the agenda. Here are all the old problems. Japanese initiatives methodically inhibit the Americans. For example, at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Shinzo Abe noted that Japan is the only major ally of the United States that did not receive exemption from the increase in tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum, introduced by President Trump this March.
Meanwhile, according to Abe, 40 percent of high-quality Japanese steel goes to America. Now these supplies are difficult, which means that the “lost time” of the Japanese economy will continue. And this is a cruel reality, not a chimera about the return of lost territories ...
- Gennady Granovsky
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