How to avoid a default in Ukraine? Experts told

The practical absence of the results of the reforms and the huge foreign debt are the "trigger" of default in Ukraine, the newspaper writes apostrophe.

The experts interviewed by the resource shared their opinions on this issue.

As the head of the Office of Effective Regulation, Aleksey Goncharuk, noted, he sees only one scenario of a way out of the current pre-default situation - this is an external loan. And the most obvious option is IMF assistance.

It will be incredibly difficult for the country to pay off debts next year if the Fund does not prolong loans. If this does not happen, then the default will take place with a probability of 99%.

Other experts emphasize that in no case should Kiev refuse to fulfill its debt obligations. Such a scenario will be the “end of the world” for Ukraine: the national currency will collapse, mass unemployment will begin, the outflow of labor abroad will increase.

According to the interlocutors of the publication, this could be explained in 2014, at the height of the war in the Donbas, but to go into default today, the fourth year after the active phase, is a sentence.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities reject even talk that the country is in default. However, is the government ready to go for the unpopular measures that the IMF needs to take?

Kiev simply has no choice, Goncharuk believes. According to him, it is a question of the survival of the government, which will not last long with such indicators. Therefore, the Cabinet will be forced to raise energy prices, including gas, “otherwise it will be much worse,” the expert added.

Recall that in the fall of 2017, Ukraine’s external debt amounted to $ 117,3 billion. External liabilities of the public sector in 2017 increased to $ 46,5 billion. The private sector debt to $ 70,8 billion. Meanwhile, the main requirements of the IMF for the next tranche are to create an anti-corruption court and increase prices.

Comments

[Grandfather Makar]

Kiev must be passed! We need him, like Crimea .. Then we close the borders for internal "showdowns with glory" he he

[Hagalaz]

We need Kiev with debts? In such a situation, I think we do not need him.

[thrush]

Quote: Hagalaz

We need Kiev with debts? In such a situation, I think we do not need him.

what is debt? the Americans live and do not blow .. by the way, this option can be avoided .. everything that is further from Kiev to realize with the Poles and Hungarians for three ..

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote: Hagalaz

We need Kiev with debts? In such a situation, I think we do not need him.

to declare Western Ukraine a Ukraine, do not touch it accordingly, hang debts in Lviv

[thrush]

Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir

to declare Western Ukraine a Ukraine, do not touch it accordingly, hang debts in Lviv

Vladimir Ivanovich .. why didn’t you run for election this year .. I would vote for you ..

mature wise political decision ..

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote: thrush

Vladimir Ivanovich .. why didn’t you run for election this year ..

I blushed all right

[Grandfather Makar]

Quote: Hagalaz

We need Kiev with debts? In such a situation, I think we do not need him.

Kiev is our symbol ... And let the Ukrainians pay debts to us (they are now agricultural territory))))
All looted and sold! In Kiev, Donbass militia must march and let them decide what and how .. hehe

[Tiksi-3]

Quote: Ded-Makar

Kiev must be passed!

and you write right there -

Quote: Ded-Makar

We need him, like Crimea

one excludes the other .... so do we need cues or not? .... debts there - in the fall of 2017, the external debt of Ukraine amounted to $ 117,3 billion maybe well in FIG? .....

[zhekazs]

Quote: Tiksi-3

one excludes the other

Quote: Ded-Makar
Kiev must be passed!
Kiev needs to be leased to Belarusians otherwise

Quote: Ded-Makar

And I really like Belarusian products, although they rarely reach us (everyone in Moscow eats them))))

[siberalt]

Ukraine is already in default due to the most incapable of the inability to pay for debts. It remains only to technically admit it.

[Lev Bronsch]

You’re like “grandfather”, but write such nonsense ... Alas. Just remember the phrase about “objective reality”, look at opinion polls in / in Ukraine, and at least watch the polls in Kiev in one shot on YouTube. Well, where do you get 20-25 million convinced "ponad usyors" you get ?? To the camps? Will you shoot? But they also will need to be fed, they themselves aren’t at work, which the practice of 27 years of "independence" objectively showed! Yes, even the last case - the defeat of the market with Caucasians and Asians in Kiev. Calmly and cheerfully called all the ukrosi "pogrom", generally without embarrassment, and the reaction of Kiev - "it's time to press these blacks, well done lads, well, etc." Your recipe, what to do with this population that has absorbed and believed in Nazi slogans?
Yes, 3-4 million people remained on the territory of Ukraine, and the rest are not really people anymore - do you have to bother with them? I don’t. Let them die themselves, demography will not let them lie)) And 3-4 million can and should be taken out, and the rest we do nothing ...

[Kot_Kuzya]

I absolutely agree with you. Ukrainians have long been infected with Nazi ideology, this has been going on since gray times. Remember how in “Taras Bulba” Ukrainians just started a pogrom and kill Jews? Do you remember how Ukrainian volunteers recruited hundreds of thousands into the SS division "Galicia", into punitive battalions, into "Travniks" as guards of concentration camps, and simply by policemen?

[kos2910]

Kiev must be passed! We need him, like Crimea ..

Are you sure? There already infected with Nazism - 80%. It makes more sense to distinguish between the Dnieper. True, Odessa needs to be taken away and the corridor to Transnistria is needed. But completely - nafig, let them get sick and ripen before the new Pereyaslav Rada

[Ankipelgygyrgyn]

Yes, let it default. No pity.

[Sarmat Sanych]

The doctor said to the morgue - then to the morgue! And then we will take our territories.

[Retvizan 8]

Another way out for the Kiev junta is war.

[Graz]

will do something at the height of the World Cup with us, this is practically their last chance

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote: Graz

this is practically their last chance

this is our last chance to end banderlogy

[lis-ik]

Quote: Graz

will do something at the height of the World Cup with us, this is practically their last chance

I still don’t understand what the World Cup has to do with it, did the light converge on it like a wedge?

[Kerensky]

Another way out for the Kiev junta is war.

And where is the way out? They will defeat everyone and take tribute for 20 years in advance to pay off their debts? Or will they throw soldiers under the tanks, and themselves in Rostov (London, Tel Aviv)?

[axiles100682]

How it all reminds Yeltsin's Russia. The same scenario with small nuances

[Mestny]

Yes.
Only Yeltsin Russia is still the heir to the vast USSR. Despite all the circumstances, they were able to stay at the last line, with one foot over the abyss.
Life Ukraine is far from the USSR, such resources are not even close.

[Lev Bronsch]

Absolutely past said !! What, in Russia in the 90s officially glorified accomplices of the Nazis, they appropriated heroes, erected monuments ?? What, in the 90s Russia was the official ideology of the exclusivity and superiority of the Russian nation ?? As now in Ukraine ... And it was not close. So with the external signs of similarity - corruption, peering into the mouth of amers, separatist enclave - the underlying processes are completely different !! Hence the conclusion - we overcame quickly and began to move up, and Ukraine with such an ideology would rot for a long time, and perhaps it would die out, the great agricultural power, Mlyn

[bk316]

You are absolutely right. In difficult times, when the state is falling apart with all its institutions, and the people are surviving as best they can, Russia resisted and they fell into fascism, pay attention EXACTLY AS GERMANY in the 30s

[Egorovich]

To avoid default, you need to come to Moscow, bang on your knees in front of the Darkest and beg for forgiveness, as the Ukrainians crawled during the reign of Catherine.

[bouncyhunter]

Hi Sasha !

Quote: Egorovich

To avoid default, you need to come to Moscow, bang on your knees in front of the Darkest and beg forgiveness

Fresh tradition, but hard to believe. They will continue to rely on the West and support in confronting the “achressor.”

[Graz]

I don’t think how the whole top will smell fried from the country

[bouncyhunter]

Quote: Graz

how the whole top will smell fried

So already the escape routes are stopudovo designed and drawn up on the tablet and just in case — with a pencil in the map, but I don’t want to drop my trough: all of a sudden you can fill up your pocket?

[Egorovich]

Pasha, hi ! I just remembered the film “Evenings on a Farm Near Dikanka.” Only there the Zaporozhye Cossacks were and crawled to Catherine 2. I remembered and laughed.

[bouncyhunter]

Quote: Egorovich

He remembered and laughed.

Understand . But not everyone understood you. Oh well: we will look at the development of events ...

[Egorovich]

Pash, Ukrainians just do not understand, which rewrite the whole story up and down. And they have this film outlawed.

[bouncyhunter]

With the mess there in my head, I am less and less surprised at the next news “from there” and shake my head more and more sadly. The bottom has long been broken, but for some this is not enough ...

[thrush]

Quote: bouncyhunter

Hi Sasha !

Quote: Egorovich

To avoid default, you need to come to Moscow, bang on your knees in front of the Darkest and beg forgiveness

Fresh tradition, but hard to believe. They will continue to rely on the West and support in confronting the “achressor.”

Paul and count only Poroshenko in the Kremlin in the columned hall takes the oath of allegiance to Russia and all the TV channels broadcast this ... Glorious Odessa rises from her knees, drives the law enforcement officers to the house of trade unions and they repent on their knees and ask for forgiveness. In Lviv, the head of Vladimir Ilyich is urgently fastened to the monuments of Bandera ... well, etc.

[bouncyhunter]

At this stage, this is from the field of absolutely unscientific fiction, but you can dream!

[cost]

The most likely other option, the president of the Russian Federation - Merkel. She, like Catherine, will learn the Russian language, accept Orthodoxy (well, the tolerant Merkel will accept Islam, Judaism and Buddhism at the same time), will fall in love with Russia, stop drinking and reunite Little Russia
Merkel’s husband, naturally killed with a snuffbox. Merkel’s lover will first be Grishka Yavlinsky, then the one-eyed .....

[bouncyhunter]

Dima, such an option is impossible in this reality, only in parallel.

[Puler]

what Ukrainians under Catherine ?! what are you talking about? Why drive a frankly bastard !? Klitschko?

[lis-ik]

Quote: Egorovich

To avoid default, you need to come to Moscow, bang on your knees in front of the Darkest and beg for forgiveness, as the Ukrainians crawled during the reign of Catherine.

What really, and to crash? And who will help Rossi? Or is everything in order with the economy and the government? And who is the "darkest", he himself does not decide anything that the appointees will do so.

[Mountain shooter]

The debts of Kiev Russia are NOT NEEDED. They jumped themselves - let them swallow dust themselves. When will they give ours?

[Nyrobsky]

And dill thought that Vika Nuland gives them free cookies - naive)))

[novel66]

They said that the most terrible weapon was the Aurora cruiser. bullshit! cookies !!

[gorenina91]

-What happened so special ..? -Ukraine as it was in "that position" ...- remained in the "former position" ...
-USA and the EU never "abandoned" Ukraine ... -they continue to provide support to it ... -And dill fired at the cities of New Russia ... -so they continue to slaughter ... -they troops and the whole army became many times more professional and powerful than before ... -And Russia, as it was a draft army (for a year) "unshooted army" ... -and remained ... -Everyone of dill (their artillery, tank and motorized units) is much more experienced today than in the Russian army ... - our units only participate in "biathlon" and field exercises (where "offsets" are put) ... - so you need to worry more about Russia, and not worry about Dill ...

[72jora72]

our units only participate in "biathlon" and field exercises (where "offsets" are put) ...

I don’t want to upset you, but where you need it, who needs it and how much it needs, they participate and what they need to learn.

[gorenina91]

-That's exactly ... -and those who are sufficiently "trained" ..- also quite often put their heads together ...- the day before yesterday our four soldiers died again ... -Something strange ... -the blow was delivered precisely to where our specialists were ... ... most likely it was the Americans who struck at that place ... -so these are our specialists ...
-And those our soldiers who served in our army for a year ... and were discharged a year later ...- who are they ..? -And dill, nevertheless ... -hood or poor .. but they constantly conduct practical firing and hostilities ... for real ...

[Kokarev Mikhail]

What is this your default? What will they do to a country that squanders other people's money? Do not give more? And they’ll do it right, Ukraine does not need money!

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

How to avoid default in Ukraine?

declare war on someone and immediately surrender

[private person]

Therefore, the Cabinet will be forced to raise prices for energy, including gas, “otherwise it will be much worse,” the expert added.
And why is this cabinet of theirs worse than our Russian? Judging by the statements, default does not threaten us, and energy prices are rising although we have our own oil and gas. Maybe enough about the Ukrainians, or is it such a way to distract from their problems.

[thrush]

Lay out your article .. with advice, recommendations .. we will discuss .. but for now so .. that they give something and we’re musing ..

[Guru]

this could be explained in 2014 at the height of the war in the Donbass, but defaulting today, the fourth year after the active phase, is a verdict.

The war is their last hope, and the Amer army in Poland.
So the Lord "We are on the verge of a Grandiose raucher"

[bald]

And why are we due to some scumbags, including the top, should lose the territory of Ukraine. Debts of the IMF, let the current authorities shake. Feed - so let them grow grub. Nichrome itself, because of the bastards, lose historical lands.

[Alex-a832]

Clinic. To get a loan from the IMF, you need to ensure its repayment, but with what? IMF does not take in kind And the fulfillment of all the previous requirements of the IMF will entail either an even greater impoverishment of the poor and a multiple increase in their number, and / or a jump in inflation, which will put the ukroeconomy already standing in the position of one arthropod. Only innovations will save Ukraine: for example, free power based on hopping generators, because there are inexhaustible reserves of horses ...

[Sarmat Sanych]

Quote: Guru

this could be explained in 2014 at the height of the war in the Donbass, but defaulting today, the fourth year after the active phase, is a verdict.

The war is their last hope, and the Amer army in Poland.
So the Lord "We are on the verge of a Grandiose raucher"

By the way, about the catch phrase: that year was an anniversary - 50 years ago my favorite documentary thriller about Ukraine was published - WEDDING IN A MALINOVKA.
The director unraveled the genetic code of Khokhl, 100 poods of the script tore from life.

[Evil 55]

UKRAINE-tse Egroba .. Where they sought, let them go there ..

[APASUS]

Ahead is also the Nord Stream, the Turkish Stream, and this is 10% of the budget of Ukraine. In essence, the Ukrainian authorities have no way out, but I think they will try to do everything so as not to pay and stay at the helm. It's simple - the collapse of the country by 5-10 states. And each creature in the state will get and debts will hang in endless negotiations, where they will have to be written off as a result.

[Metallurg_2]

No, Ukrainians, the Rothschilds cannot be thrown. These guys will take their own and with interest.
At least, if you had nuclear weapons, you could still be blackmailed, otherwise not.