How to avoid a default in Ukraine? Experts told
The experts interviewed by the resource shared their opinions on this issue.
As the head of the Office of Effective Regulation, Aleksey Goncharuk, noted, he sees only one scenario of a way out of the current pre-default situation - this is an external loan. And the most obvious option is IMF assistance.
It will be incredibly difficult for the country to pay off debts next year if the Fund does not prolong loans. If this does not happen, then the default will take place with a probability of 99%.
Other experts emphasize that in no case should Kiev refuse to fulfill its debt obligations. Such a scenario will be the “end of the world” for Ukraine: the national currency will collapse, mass unemployment will begin, the outflow of labor abroad will increase.
According to the interlocutors of the publication, this could be explained in 2014, at the height of the war in the Donbas, but to go into default today, the fourth year after the active phase, is a sentence.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities reject even talk that the country is in default. However, is the government ready to go for the unpopular measures that the IMF needs to take?
Kiev simply has no choice, Goncharuk believes. According to him, it is a question of the survival of the government, which will not last long with such indicators. Therefore, the Cabinet will be forced to raise energy prices, including gas, “otherwise it will be much worse,” the expert added.
Recall that in the fall of 2017, Ukraine’s external debt amounted to $ 117,3 billion. External liabilities of the public sector in 2017 increased to $ 46,5 billion. The private sector debt to $ 70,8 billion. Meanwhile, the main requirements of the IMF for the next tranche are to create an anti-corruption court and increase prices.
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