Military Review

Will Iran leave Syria? About the prospect of a new conflict

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel during today's briefing in Sofia, said that during her visit to Sochi she intends to discuss with Vladimir Putin a number of issues related to international issues. According to Merkel, such issues as the Ukrainian conflict, Syria, as well as the US withdrawal from the “nuclear” agreement with Iran will be on the agenda.


Meanwhile, the Syrian issue in the light of the release of the CAA of new and new territories acquires additional urgency due to the presence of Iranian forces and pro-Iranian armed groups on the Syrian territory. Experts in the West note that one of the reasons for the US withdrawal from the Iranian deal was precisely the buildup of Iran’s military presence in Syria, and statements about the “Iranian nuclear program” are already secondary.

By and large, it is worth saying that the Iranian military presence in Syria bears a minimum of legitimacy, as well as the military presence in the UAR of the United States of America. The UN Security Council did not sanction the entry of Iranian or American troops into the SAR. Also, Iranian and especially American forces of Syria were not officially invited.

Will Iran leave Syria? About the prospect of a new conflict


But if it is a matter of the military presence of Iran, then it will be necessary to raise the issue of the military presence of Turkey there, which no one has invited either.

In the end, Washington will either have to accept the legitimacy of the Astana format for resolving the Syrian crisis, or recognize that their own actions in Syria bear zero legitimacy and, in fact, are a set of war crimes against the background of the violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian state. But the United States in its usual way does not recognize either one or the other, and this in turn will undermine diplomatic opportunities for agreements on the withdrawal of Iranian armed forces after the final defeat of the IG * (prohibited in the Russian Federation) and al-Nusra * in the SAR. Does this mean that the conflict with time will only get worse?
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  1. ANCIENT
    ANCIENT 17 May 2018 16: 31
    +7
    The question must be posed differently - who benefits from Iran’s departure from Syria, where the Iranian army and the IRGC are honing the experience of conducting anti-terrorist military activities. Along the way, the Iranians are creating their military bases in Syria, but you need to remember that the Iranians are fighting on the side of Assad and us. That is, the presence of Iranian troops in Syria is in a certain sense at hand.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. The comment was deleted.
        1. Abu Dawood
          Abu Dawood 17 May 2018 17: 10
          +5
          Objectively, after Assad’s Victory in the Civil War, Iran is Iran’s rival for influence in Syria. Iran wants to turn Syria into its foremost outpost for a war with Israel. Russia needs peace in Syria and military bases. Therefore, the interests of Russia and Iran do not coincide
          1. Volodin
            Volodin 17 May 2018 17: 16
            +6
            Quote: Abu Daud
            Iran is a rival of Iran for influence in Syria

            Who's rival?

            Quote: Abu Daud
            after Victory of Assad in the Civil War

            An amazing civil war in which almost fifty countries of the world took part ... Just like here in 1918-20
          2. just exp
            just exp 17 May 2018 17: 26
            +2
            and where did you get the idea that Iran is going to fight with Israel?
        2. Usher
          Usher 17 May 2018 17: 13
          +4
          Because the behavior of Israel and the Jews does not like anyone.
          1. Chertt
            Chertt 17 May 2018 17: 19
            +4
            Quote: Usher
            Because the behavior of Israel and the Jews does not like anyone.

            I do not like the behavior of Israel only one thing, an alliance with the United States. I really like everything else
        3. Doliva63
          Doliva63 17 May 2018 17: 54
          +8
          Quote: Chertt
          Quote: Doliva63
          obscure state education called Israel

          I can’t understand where so many anti-Semites come from. Indeed, in normal life they are not visible. (I have more than one among my friends). And here, on any other issues, intelligent intelligent people (mostly). But as soon as a topic appears, at least as it relates to Jews. From where it appears, there’s no news that

          I have no complaints about any nationalities, including Jews. We are talking about a state created by the will of several individuals on the historical lands of other peoples, to their detriment. They wanted it and created it. I do not consider this historically fair. So it is possible, for example, to give the whole Chelyabinsk region to Iran - 22 cities built by Iranians were discovered on its territory. Why, they always lived there!
          The same situation with Israel.
          By the way, the familiar Jews who left there in the late 80s all returned to their homeland. Where is my anti-Semitism?
          1. Chertt
            Chertt 17 May 2018 18: 14
            +5
            Quote: Doliva63
            about the state created by the will of several individuals on the historical lands of other peoples, to the detriment of them

            Without going deep into history, we can say that, according to the results of the First and then the Second World War, the Great Middle East was in complete chaos. Nearly all The states of this region were created artificially, with invented borders. The state of Israel has shown its viability and vitality in an extremely hostile environment. I consider it a big misunderstanding that the USSR and Israel have become enemies. I hope modern Russia will change this
            1. Doliva63
              Doliva63 17 May 2018 20: 33
              +6
              "The State of Israel, has shown its viability ..."
              It would be more correct to say that France, Great Britain and the USA showed Israel's viability laughing
              You have an incomplete secondary vocational education, it seems?
          2. Grandfather Makar
            Grandfather Makar 17 May 2018 20: 30
            +5
            Quote: Doliva63
            I have no complaints about any nationalities, including Jews. We are talking about a state created by the will of several individuals on the historical lands of other peoples, to their detriment. They wanted it and created it.

            That's right ..! And then how is it against, so immediately anti-Semitic and fascist .. hehe
            And Iran, like Russia in Syria Ostants !!! For a long time..
        4. cats
          cats 17 May 2018 21: 02
          +4
          Quote: Chertt
          I can’t understand where so many anti-Semites come from. Indeed, in normal life they are not visible.

          So in normal life there are not so many aggressive Jews .. request
          And when all sorts of obscure personalities crap here on behalf of the Jews ..
          What should be your reaction?
          And normal ones are rarely shown here, or it’s not interesting,
          whether their beat for normality .. what hi
    2. bouncyhunter
      bouncyhunter 17 May 2018 16: 38
      +3
      Vitalich, hello! hi
      Quote: ANCIENT
      the presence of Iranian troops in Syria to us in a sense on hand.

      I highlighted the keywords.
      1. ANCIENT
        ANCIENT 17 May 2018 16: 50
        +4
        Paul drinks good health to you hi ! There is a game for the future, so Iran is now, so to speak, slowly preparing itself for the role of regional leader!
        1. bouncyhunter
          bouncyhunter 17 May 2018 17: 06
          +1
          Quote: ANCIENT
          Iran is now, so to speak, slowly preparing itself for the role of regional leader!

          And who else is preparing for this role? wink
    3. Chicha squad
      Chicha squad 17 May 2018 16: 38
      0
      Russia-Syria-Iran vs USA-Israel-Isil and other terrorist organizations. That's the question of who will win.

      Just to the topic.
    4. Vladimir Ter-Odiyants
      Vladimir Ter-Odiyants 17 May 2018 16: 51
      +2
      Quote: ANCIENT
      the presence of Iranian troops in Syria

      If only, feet forward! Iran, by good will Never!, Will not leave Syria. As one classic of the revolutionary movement of Russia at the beginning of the first half of the last century used to say: Death is similar: (the phrase is taken out of context) The original sounds like this. Procrastination is similar to death. What was associated with the seizure authorities in one famous city!
      Quote: ANCIENT
      where the Iranian army and the IRGC are honing the experience of conducting anti-terrorist military activities.

      First of all, Iranian forces save the lives of Russian soldiers with their participation!
  2. Pissarro
    Pissarro 17 May 2018 16: 38
    +7
    Where did the author give birth to, that the Iranian troops are in Syria without the sanction of the legitimate Syrian government? They were invited to Syria before us.
  3. Livonetc
    Livonetc 17 May 2018 16: 42
    +4
    Quote: ANCIENT
    The question must be posed differently - who benefits from Iran’s departure from Syria, where the Iranian army and the IRGC are honing the experience of conducting anti-terrorist military activities. Along the way, the Iranians are creating their military bases in Syria, but you need to remember that the Iranians are fighting on the side of Assad and us. That is, the presence of Iranian troops in Syria is in a certain sense at hand.

    Only one correction.
    Iranians are fighting on their own side.
    Not ours, and it is very doubtful that they are seriously concerned about the interests of Syria itself.
    The presence of Iranian troops in Syria can only be beneficial to us if they hypothetically agree to withdraw from Syria, with the participation of Russia in the negotiation process on this subject with the aim of receiving any reciprocal concessions.
    For example, the withdrawal of American units from Syria, the obligation of Israel not to attack the positions of the Syrian army, etc., etc.
  4. samarin1969
    samarin1969 17 May 2018 16: 42
    +2
    Fair, unfair, "legitimate illegitimate" .... In Syria, this has long lost its significance. All aviation and infantry with equipment decide. ... The only topic for negotiation is to convince the "partner of Vladimir" in neutrality towards Iran. ...
  5. Wolf47525
    Wolf47525 17 May 2018 16: 58
    +1
    Will Iran leave Syria?

    Will Iran, figuratively speaking, be tomorrow? This is a valid question.
    1. Paranoid50
      Paranoid50 17 May 2018 17: 04
      +3
      Quote: Wolf47525
      Will Iran, figuratively speaking, be tomorrow?

      Yes, it will be. This is not a hypothetical Kurdistan.
      1. Wolf47525
        Wolf47525 17 May 2018 17: 25
        +1
        I love the self-confident shkoloto. Just do not be offended.
        1. Paranoid50
          Paranoid50 17 May 2018 20: 05
          +2
          Quote: Wolf47525
          shkoloto. Just do not be offended.

          Duc, it’s a sin to take offense at you, therefore I forgive rudeness. laughing I understand - Kurds-shmurdy, the soul of the Montenegrin hurts ... So no one said what would be like in a fairy tale. yes And yes, for the future - the "boys" in the ravine horse eat up. And now the march to do homework is soon the exam.
          1. Wolf47525
            Wolf47525 18 May 2018 06: 22
            0
            You see ......... I know a little more about what is happening in Iran. As in what used to be called ATS.
            1. Brut
              Brut 18 May 2018 09: 10
              0
              Quote: Wolf47525
              You see ......... I know a little more about what is happening in Iran. As in what used to be called ATS.

              Well share it, please.
              1. Wolf47525
                Wolf47525 18 May 2018 09: 41
                0
                Tell me ....... Is it Mossad to teach the owners of Iranian enterprises not to pay workers wages so that they go on strike? It was the State Department that taught protesters in the Iranian province to shout "Not Gaza, not Lebanon! Our homeland is Iran! Remember us!"? Does this Mossad teach Iranian women to protest against the Islamic dress code? Is it the State Department that teaches Iranians to protest against their daughters being married at 15? This Mossad threw the idea of ​​protesting zinc from Syria, Iraq, Yemen in Iranian villages .........?
  6. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 17 May 2018 17: 08
    +7
    Iran still has some bummer in Iraq.
    There in Iraq as a result of democratic (!!! belay ) election
    moderate anti-Iranian Shiites defeated.
    Who want to unite with communist Kurds
    and moderate Sunnis (I don’t know who they are, but not ISIS - for sure)
    and kick the Iranians out of the country am .
    Whether it works out is not known, but, as the Chukchi say from the joke "however, the tendency" fellow .
  7. Usher
    Usher 17 May 2018 17: 10
    +1
    Shta !!! "The UN Security Council did not authorize the entry of Iranian or American troops into the SAR," from which the UN, the UN, has long been a discredited organization. Will die just like the League of Nations. Syria itself knows who to invite and who has come uninvited.
  8. Moskovit
    Moskovit 17 May 2018 17: 35
    +3
    Israel has already “kicked out” the pro-Iranian hezbal from Syria. Now it will also "drive out" from Syria.
  9. Lesorub
    Lesorub 17 May 2018 17: 45
    +2
    By and large, it is worth saying that the Iranian military presence in Syria bears a minimum of legitimacy, as well as the military presence in the UAR of the United States of America. The UN Security Council did not sanction the entry of Iranian or American troops into the SAR. Also, Iranian and especially American forces of Syria were not officially invited.

    What a chaotic thought !!))) To cross a cat and a dog! States (which actually created ISIS), Iran, which helps its soldiers in the life of Syria !, and what does the UN have to do with its security council ??? !!!
  10. alex-cn
    alex-cn 17 May 2018 18: 38
    0
    Iran, perhaps, and even most likely, will leave Syria, but ... "without weapons", leaving everything organized and re-trained by Hezbollah.
  11. Nychego
    Nychego 18 May 2018 00: 08
    0
    Until the Iranians conduct the first Shiite-Israeli war, they will not leave. Why else should they save Assad, except to create a bridgehead for such a war?
  12. Zina389
    Zina389 18 May 2018 10: 38
    0
    Has Assad also invited Turkey? Announce the entire list, please.
  13. Vitalii21
    Vitalii21 18 May 2018 11: 39
    0
    Iran is an independent state with an established management system and its system, in contrast to Israel, which is very dependent on external support and approval! If Israel was somewhere in Europe, then its behavior would be understandable. Knowledge, technology, the presence of a strong economy would put him on a par with the Germans, he has a different mentality in the east, it has turned out historically, respect not smart and cunning, but wise, well, etc. Hence all the problems and the inability to get along with neighbors! Let them study with us, we have centuries-old experience of cohabitation in one country of different beliefs and religions. And you need to agree with your neighbors, as they do in the east, and not fire from behind cover, as the "civilized" world does.
  14. flicker
    flicker 19 May 2018 15: 04
    0
    The issue with Iran should be considered in the context of the Anaconda plan (a plan to strangle Russia). To implement this plan, geldings (and their BV to an ally of Israel) need to colonize Iran, make it manual and controlled. We need to prevent this, so in case of any aggression against Iran, we think we will provide him with material and technical military assistance to the extent that he will need (we will need to supply the S-400, and even the Iskanders) to stop the aggressor .
    To attack Iran geldings (at the first, provocative stage) will be the hands of Israel, and in order for the latter not to want to do this, the presence of the Iranian armed forces in Syria is necessary.
    It’s another matter to attack Iran Israel (and even from the territory of Syria) for no good reason, we will not welcome.