Military Review

Unusual intelligence of the US Air Force before the upcoming escalation in the Donbas: political and military aspects

23



A very genuine interest, echoing a flurry of misunderstanding, and somewhere well-reasoned criticism, aroused the last statement of the Russian representative in the Tripartite Contact Group under the “Minsk Agreements” made by Boris Gryzlov on May 11, 2018. According to a senior negotiator on Ukraine’s issues, “the hostilities in the Donbass have virtually stopped, and there are only a few cases of ceasefire violations”; Based on this, Boris Vyacheslavovich proposes to launch the procedure for the implementation of the political part of the “Minsk agreements”, based on compliance with the “Steinmeier formula” and the law “On the special status of Donbass” included in its clauses. But the more absurd such statements sound, the more disturbing News comes to us from the war-ravaged Donbass. Against this background, it is very easy to understand the indignation and opinion of the civilian population, not biased by complex geopolitical games.

What kind of implementation of the political part of Minsk-2 can be discussed when, starting from the day the parties signed the document, 12 February 2015 of the year, the Ukrainian side never completed a single paragraph concerning the withdrawal of large-caliber receiver and rocket artillery from the contact line ? And this, by the way, is the military component of an absolutely inefficient and discredited “Minsk format”, without which no progress can be made a priori. After all, the blind follow-up of “Minsk-2” led to the fact that the Russian city of Mariupol, tormented by esbeush searches and repressions by the Ukrainian power structures, remained under the control of Ukrainian military formations, and dozens of Ukrainian artillery batteries of Acacia, Hyacinth-S systems, as well as towed howitzers “Msta-B” and D-30, to this day, have not been pushed aside by the LDNR people's militia corps 40 km from Donetsk-Makeevka and Gorlovsk-Yenakiyev agglomerations, from which shelling of peaceful civilians in the central cities ah and most LDNR villages would be technically unrealizable.

Nevertheless, despite all its absurdity, this statement by the main Russian curator of the Minsk negotiators can be nothing more than a litmus test for definitive proof of the complete incompetence of the Ukrainian side in the long term. In other words, through the mouth of Boris Gryzlov, the Russian side expresses readiness to conduct a constructive dialogue on resolving the situation, but at the same time holds the trump card with a blank card for 1 and 2 AK NM NMNR to conduct a counter-offensive against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of aggression of the latter, and possibly direct participation in curbing the aggression of the Ukrainian formations during an attempt to arrange another genocide of the peaceful population of Donbass. After all, it is already known that no constructive diplomatic methods with an inadequate Ukrainian regime, controlled by the Pentagon, will not have the desired effect. Some other facts presented by our mass media over the past few weeks testify to this well-thought tactic of Moscow.

First of all, this is quite predictable and objective “freezing” of the Kremlin’s comprehensive interaction with other countries of the “Norman Four” with only Vladimir Putin’s limited communication with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, which Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told 18 on April . Here, Moscow gives European “colleagues”, as well as Kiev and Washington a clear signal about the unacceptability of preserving that hackneyed model of interaction, in accordance with which the Russian side continues to play the unnecessary role of the guarantor of “Minsk-2”, while Kiev is rapidly preparing operational and tactical groundwork for the unleashing of another slaughter in the Donbass, the final goal of which is to clean up the entire dissident population of young republics, and then to deploy Western military on the border of the Rostov region contingents, including new PMCs and military police, arrived "tail" for "blue helmets".

Some political scientists, as well as the State Secretary / Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, believe that the restoration of previous contacts in the framework of the “Norman Four” will be a key topic on the agenda of the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for 18 in May with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Indeed, this issue will be touched upon at the negotiations in Sochi, but with a great deal of confidence it can be argued that even theoretically, this discussion will not bring any fundamental changes in attitudes. The current rhetoric and strategy of Moscow in terms of resolving the situation in the Donbass, in the best case for Kiev, will remain unshakable even after the likely “reopening” of the Quartet’s work in June of this year.

But there are no reasons for this “re-reservation” today and it is not expected. After all, it is well known that last Thursday, 10 of May 2018 of the year, in German Aachen there was a meeting of the illegitimate President of Ukraine Poroshenko, Chancellor of Germany Merkel, as well as the President of France Macron already in the format of the “three” without Vladimir Putin, which rather eloquently indicates care of the Norman four ”from the level of a high-ranking diplomatic group to the level of backstage anti-Russian“ pacts ”aimed at finding ways to bypass the Russian veto in the UN Security Council when voting for the introduction of Western European peacekeeping th contingent in the Donbass. Here is another reason for such an unexpected announcement of the possible use of the resolution “Unity for Peace” by the UN General Assembly resolution 377 (V), with the help of which the Korean War was unleashed in the distant 1950 year.

Secondly, even more 5 days ago in the Russian media referring to RBC and sources close to the Kremlin, extremely important information about the possible resignation of Vladislav Surkov from the post of presidential aide in charge of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, as well as “Square” at the negotiations, rushed through with US State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Walker. Displacement from the post may occur on the basis of personnel changes in the presidential administration. This information is also confirmed with reference to the defense structures of the republics of Donbass. Saying this can only be about one thing: the times of “soft negotiations” and “pouring from one empty sieve” in the course of numerous meetings with Walker safely came to an end; and, as the events of the last day show, to convey the position of Moscow to the frantic and Russophobic-minded "chain dog" Mike Pompeo, a personality is quite tough, very sharply reacting to all Western attacks against the Russian Federation.

It is possible that the new "negotiator" on Ukraine will be the plenipotentiary of the President of Russia in the Volga Federal District, Mikhail Babich, who very sharply responded to the provocative case of the poisoning in Salisbury and the subsequent missile attack of the Western coalition on the SAA in an interview with RIA Novosti. At least, it is about his candidacy that various sources in Russia, in the Donbass and in the “independent” speak. Also, this is partially indicated by the news of “Gazeta.Ru” with reference to unnamed interlocutors in the State Duma about the imminent resignation of M. Babich from his previous post.

As you can see, the Russian side is preparing thoroughly for the new stage of confrontation in the Donbass theater of military operations, lacking only the officially announced “Northern wind” in the form of direct military support of the army corps of the republics in repelling the aggression of the Ukrainian army. But judging by what is happening, and such a scenario is just around the corner. Once again, taking advantage of the protracted “slip” of the “Minsk-2” and the “Norman format”, Kiev quickly forced the reformatting of the punitive operation from the so-called ATO into the “Combined Forces Operation” 30 of April, and also took a half-week pause, which resulted in a relative operational silence only until May 9, with brief shelling along the line of contact. On the evening of May 9, during celebrations to commemorate Victory Day, the settlements of Kominternovo, Leninskoye and Sakhanka were subjected to a powerful artillery strike from the barrel artillery (120-mm mortars 2B11 and D-30 howitzers), as well as shots of women, as well as shots, as well as shots, as well as shots, as well as hands and hands. 30А2 guns mounted on the BMP-42 Ukrainian military units. From this point on, the next pseudo-armistice could be put up a cross. After the numbers 2 operational situation has changed dramatically.

The headquarters of the Combined Forces Operations, headed by war criminal Sergei Naev, who had received his higher military education at the Moscow Military University of Culture and Command, ordered the 24 and 54 of the separate mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to open a regular harassing fire on the Gorlovka operational direction, and also to attempt occupation of the village of Chigiri and the adjacent height after the appropriate artillery preparation. As a result, the suburban village of Chigiri, located in the gray zone, which is distinguished by its tactically unprofitable lowland relief with a marshy surface, came under the control of the 24-th brigade, after which the Ukrainian insurgents automatically fell into the affected area of ​​small arms of the units of the DPR People’s Militia Corps, deployed at a nearby height. Approximately such “tactical skills” were demonstrated by Naev and the entire top staff of “OOS” in the simplest local operation on the outskirts of Gorlovka: the next “half-hotel” is on the face, which will be very difficult for Ukrainian militants even at night and with the “greens”, so the VSN units have Armed with a fairly modern thermal imaging systems.

Nevertheless, it is not worth flattering at all. It must be remembered that the number of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the first line of defense is approximately 2,5-3,5 times higher than that of NM LDNR units, and the number of armored vehicles and artillery is 1,5-1,7 times. And even despite the absence of the 2 line of defense, in the hands of the APU there is a trump card like 35 PU and 210 anti-tank guided missiles FGM-148 "Javelin", which can significantly complicate the defensive actions of 1-1 AK NM DNR in the 35-kilometer area steppe area "Telmanovsky isthmus" or, for example, on Debaltsevskogo ON. From the southern approaches to the DPR (especially in the areas of Pavlopol and Belaya Kamenka) now, in the literal sense of the word, one cannot take one's eye, because the continuing artillery attacks on Gorlovka are directed only at distracting the attention of the DPR Defense Ministry from Volnovakhi and the environs of Mariupol, where the most powerful offensive groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were formed .

The inevitable approach of the military scenario in the Donbass theater of operations is also indicated by the extremely unusual trajectory of the reconnaissance flight of the RQ-4B Block 30 “Global Hawk” high-altitude strategic drone with the call sign UAVGH000 during its last 12 mission in May 2018 of the year. The car, as usual, entered the Ukrainian airspace from Romania and proceeded in the direction of Donbass over the Kirovograd and Dnepropetrovsk regions. Immediately, the reconnaissance operation took place not only along the standard trajectory in the form of a “crescent”, limited to the cities of Berdyansk, Kurakhovo and Severodonetsk, but with initial loitering over the north-eastern part of the Kharkiv region.


The last reconnaissance mission of the Global Hawk for 12 in May was not limited to Donbas


This suggests that the command of the US Air Force was extremely interested in the location and movement of armored vehicles and artillery, as well as ground-based air defense and electronic warfare systems located in the Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod regions. Conclusion: an attempt was made to calculate the location of equipment and the time required to transfer units of the 3rd and 144th motorized divisions, the 1st separate guards tank brigade, the 53rd anti-aircraft missile brigade and the 236th artillery brigade in the area of ​​the Russian-Ukrainian border in the event of an offensive of the Armed Forces on LDNR. And this only indicates that the scale of escalation planned at the Pentagon and the General Staff of the Armed Forces in advance provides for the direct participation of the Russian Armed Forces to protect the republics from the new aggression of the Ukrainian army. Fortunately, in this area the units of one of the most modern in the Western military district of the 16th separate electronic warfare brigade are partially operated, which have at their disposal the most sophisticated electronic countermeasures systems (Krasukha-2/4, and possibly SPN-2/4) capable of suppressing the operation of early warning radar and ground reconnaissance MP-RTIP; it is the latter that are the radar "eyes" of the Global Hawks.

Information sources:
https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2018/05/14/n_11532265.shtml
http://www.tvc.ru/news/show/id/137517
https://real-vin.com/gryzlov-zajavil-ob-izmenenii-situacii-na-donbasse
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23 comments
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  1. Lynx33
    Lynx33 17 May 2018 06: 11
    +21
    Donbass residents are of course sorry, but not the United States pours shells on their heads every day, they are only a financial sponsor and by themselves nothing will resolve there, no matter how our rulers hide their heads in the sand. Undefered by our grandfathers Bandera should be physically destroyed.
    1. Kokarev Mikhail
      Kokarev Mikhail 17 May 2018 10: 49
      +4
      But people with poor mental development will still not translate. And telling them tales, you can raise them to any muck. Do not forget Bandera began to grow in the head with the 91st. Those who are blenders today - they don’t even know who he is, only fairy tales. Physically, it is necessary to exterminate the gardeners on the ground, and the industry itself will dry up.
      1. AleksSandro
        AleksSandro 17 May 2018 15: 56
        +10
        No, not in the 91st, much earlier. As a cadet of the last year, he completed an internship in one of the air regiments in Western Ukraine. It was the end of the 80s. Even then, in the bazaars of the nearest city, they refused to answer my questions. if you contacted not on the "mov". Well, about the hostile attitude of the local population towards people like me. commanders warned us right away. recommending not to appear on the streets at a later time, not to speak loudly in Russian one by one or not to walk in two, etc. and despite the fact that eastern Ukraine did not like western, I regularly heard in eastern. that Ukraine feeds stupid and lazy Muscovites. who peel it like sticky, and if she dropped them from her neck, then at one point it would fly up to heaven and become almost the navel of the universe. And about Bandera I heard that he was slandered by the Communists, that he was a hero who fought for the benefit of the independence with the Germans and Muscovites. In general, there was a period when, to many, not very distant subjects, it seemed that everything that the Communists considered bad was, in fact, good. And vice versa. It must be admitted that the then communist government was largely to blame. At least by the 80s (and even earlier) she had long lost her former authority. Nobody believed in fairy tales about the bright future, including those who told them. Well, only the most moronic government in the world could prosrait a huge country with enormous wealth and unique geographical (even geopolitical) position. equipped with full ... muks. Therefore, new heroes appeared (or "forgotten ones" were revived like Bandera and other kov), and the spirit of Bandera in the square never disappeared, neither during his life nor after. He just hid and disguised himself, then made his way out
    2. RESEARCHER
      RESEARCHER 17 May 2018 11: 08
      +2
      The fault in the conflict lies with the USA. They are, firstly, the ukrov command headquarters, and secondly, their financial sponsor.
    3. Selvester
      Selvester 17 May 2018 12: 52
      +2
      Just the United States and rains. Ukrovermaht - this is just free meat for running errands.
    4. Dimmedroll
      Dimmedroll 17 May 2018 21: 53
      +1
      It’s not a question of who is pouring, but of who started it all. And here is the culprit alone.
  2. aszzz888
    aszzz888 17 May 2018 06: 45
    +2
    The situation does not let the fighters and the people of LDNR relax. I suppose, when the soil dries up and the big "green stuff" ukrofashisty climb to the slaughter.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 17 May 2018 07: 03
    +3
    the times of “soft negotiations” and “transfusion from empty to empty” in the course of numerous meetings with Volker safely came to an end
    I'd like to hope so. The Kiev junta has completely lost its landmarks and is becoming impudent every day.
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 17 May 2018 07: 45
    +4
    All of these zhzhzhzhzh .... not casual ... It is quite possible that the fighting will intensify ... In Syria they hit on Mordos .. Now gasoline will splash where it smolders ...
  5. ochakow703
    ochakow703 17 May 2018 09: 09
    +7
    So, as the GDP said - "We will water in sartir!" And do not breed institute polites! It's time to speak in an intelligible language of an equal interlocutor, and if they don’t hear, then put ultimatums. We are already rushing about with this Zakraina, and its top is all greyhound and greyhound. I believe that our special services should be deprived of a quarterly bonus!
    1. ZuuT
      ZuuT 17 May 2018 10: 48
      +6
      in order to "wet" you need to have eggs, but does the leader of the Lake cooperative have it?
      1. Evgeny Grachev
        Evgeny Grachev 17 May 2018 11: 27
        +1
        Surely stronger than yours ....)))
  6. ilik54
    ilik54 17 May 2018 10: 49
    +2
    To create shock battalions from the visiting migrant workers who will disperse in the areas from which they came and let them clean up their country. To act with a carrot and a stick, that is, the threat of family destruction and decent pay, as with earnings in Russia, there will be no end to it. There is also a committee to save Ukraine — let it act, and not sit behind us and wait for us to send troops there.
    1. Akuzenka
      Akuzenka 17 May 2018 13: 01
      +2
      Sorry, of course. But even laugh at your maxim, laziness.
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. loaln
    loaln 17 May 2018 11: 37
    +5
    All the lousiness of Minsk-2 is in the failed form of the final documents. The speed with which the signing of Minsk-2 was accelerated showed not that Ukraine got into the boiler somewhere, but that Russia did not know how to get rid of the “suitcase without a handle”. And you can’t bother him with anything, and it’s inconvenient to quit.
    The first. The agreement was supposed to be two-way. Between Ukraine and Donbas.
    In addition, only Russia, France and Germany should have signed the Protocol of intent, in which they would offer their mediation in case of any obstacles in implementation. Not more.
    Instead, they signed everything without Donbass, having assumed all obligations on an equal footing. Both Russia and Ukraine. At this moment, Ukraine and pokes Russia constantly. And Donbass only vised. That is, it does not exist. Few people outlined there.
    As a result, created a magic wand for manipulators. On the other brain is not enough. Where they were to Minsk-2, they remained there.
    No, for the time being, the residents of Donbass understood the true intentions of Russia. And eat fish, and the owner does not hurt.
  9. Normal ok
    Normal ok 17 May 2018 13: 14
    +2
    Unusual intelligence of the US Air Force before the upcoming escalation in the Donbas: political and military aspects

    A normal analytical article should have been entitled: "A weekly flight of an American intelligence officer. And the complete absence of the prospect of an APU offensive in the Donbas."
    And what is written here is just waste paper.
    1. Fayter2017
      Fayter2017 17 May 2018 13: 46
      +1
      Theoretically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have time until the end of the World Cup in football to do something, then there will be ay-ay.
      1. C0ba1tum
        C0ba1tum 17 May 2018 17: 03
        +1
        The principle of all of their Hohland is already Khan, crumbles. They just support it, because its main goal as a kamikaze - to drag Russia into the war, it never fulfilled. The Russian Federation is smart and is not conducted. It is a pity to Novorossia to madness, but it’s also stupid to rush with a saber, because we are being pressed not only from the side of 404. Any dentition to Sumerians without training in other areas threatens us with being crushed by them. It’s like a classic gopot’s provocation technique. A shallow, shitty, and shrill bully cripples, and when you lose patience and give him a horn, a pair of bulls appear and legally and in terms of “hey, EPT, beat our sidekick,” you’re wrinkled if you’re not ready.
  10. seacap
    seacap 17 May 2018 16: 54
    +3
    Quote: Kokarev Mikhail
    Do not forget Bandera began to grow in the head with the 91st.

    I’ll clarify a little, from the century before last, the so-called the Ukrainian language, which by the way is a separate language only according to the decree, and all over the world it is a South Russian dialect. And from the 91st it began to be actively introduced, as I remember, when I was on vacation in Lviv, it’s already constantly on the local radio then There was talk about the Ukrainian Movement and veterans of the Galitchin division. It's a shame that our politicians and leaders all this time just stroked the pipe, but they thought the loot was exactly the same situation in other republics, in Kazakhstan, was no different, in Central Asia Russians had recently cut families and children and women, in order to take possession of homes and goodness, I doubt that they have increased their tolerance and love for us. It's a shame another thing that ours also continue to mumble about some kind of mythical independence and non-interference in business, justifying their lack of professionalism and bankruptcy, helplessness in upholding the interests of the country, surrendering them to a power that is generally on the other side of the planet and never, in any way, related to these territories, abundantly watered with a Russian krovushkoy did not have.
  11. NF68
    NF68 17 May 2018 17: 12
    +1
    Soon the horses will come up with something else like this:

  12. seacap
    seacap 17 May 2018 17: 24
    +6
    It was less necessary to iron the pipe, and to transfer all relations to the loot. Shame and utter bankruptcy, the helplessness of politicians and the corresponding structures, and this is in conditions ideal for any service, with a loyal and friendly population. A complete failure of diplomats and specialists of all levels, and maybe direct sabotage, but this is work for other departments. The same thing happens one in one in other republics, the same inactivity and amorphousness of all structures, situational sluggish work, rather even imitation of it to defend one’s interests and influence, covered by all this squalor with a mythical screen of non-interference in affairs and some kind of independence . Yes, in a normal state of affairs, if our so-called the elites did not kill the country and did not surrender it for plunder and further destruction, these so-called presidents, premieres, kings, khans, should ask Moscow for permission to go to the toilet, not to do something or cancel something there, especially not to pop in. Based on this, considering the western lands to be temporarily occupied by our partners, the question arises of who changed the oath and oath and surrendered the native Russian lands without a fight of a foreign army and Nazi evil spirits, why the partisan movement and reconnaissance and sabotage work were not prepared and deployed on the temporarily occupied territory and an agent network, where our politicians are agents of influence, why there is no offensive ideological war? Have you already forgotten that they celebrated May 9, and all the work experience preceding this day? Looking at the utter equanimity of our authorities with all these unthinkable crimes of the brothers, at permissiveness that crosses all borders, the abduction and seizure of citizens of our country and mockery of them, seeing the utter amorphousness and hearing the mumble of heads from TV, I do not want to believe that nothing has changed leaders of the country in relation to their people and state, whom they pledged and vowed to defend, that everything is also measured and changed for loot as before. Wouldn’t it be time to do anything, wait and sit out, it’s impossible to fight without ownership , without control of the situation - the path to defeat, and in our case, to direct physical destruction.
    1. Heterocapsa
      Heterocapsa 17 May 2018 21: 37
      +1
      And what had to be ironed? When is the economy in ruin? A pipe is a lot of money without money and an army and humanitarian aid and generally no help would cut everyone in the Donbass. Such as you, on emotions, will forever break firewood and then into the bushes and nickname change.
  13. Heterocapsa
    Heterocapsa 17 May 2018 21: 34
    0
    The German Foreign Ministry came and, according to him, at the press conference of the Foreign Ministry of Germany and Russia, it was Germany that decided to give a new impetus to intensify negotiations.
  14. shirkoled
    shirkoled 20 May 2018 20: 10
    0
    Gryzlov stayed in Minsk! He is the fate of the inhabitants of LDNR drum !!!
    So his opinion and the opinion of Russians from LDNR differ as heaven and earth !!!
    And our brightest one is still a wise man, he recognized parsley, and he rolled the inhabitants of LDNR !!!