A very genuine interest, echoing a flurry of misunderstanding, and somewhere well-reasoned criticism, aroused the last statement of the Russian representative in the Tripartite Contact Group under the “Minsk Agreements” made by Boris Gryzlov on May 11, 2018. According to a senior negotiator on Ukraine’s issues, “the hostilities in the Donbass have virtually stopped, and there are only a few cases of ceasefire violations”; Based on this, Boris Vyacheslavovich proposes to launch the procedure for the implementation of the political part of the “Minsk agreements”, based on compliance with the “Steinmeier formula” and the law “On the special status of Donbass” included in its clauses. But the more absurd such statements sound, the more disturbing News comes to us from the war-ravaged Donbass. Against this background, it is very easy to understand the indignation and opinion of the civilian population, not biased by complex geopolitical games.
What kind of implementation of the political part of Minsk-2 can be discussed when, starting from the day the parties signed the document, 12 February 2015 of the year, the Ukrainian side never completed a single paragraph concerning the withdrawal of large-caliber receiver and rocket artillery from the contact line ? And this, by the way, is the military component of an absolutely inefficient and discredited “Minsk format”, without which no progress can be made a priori. After all, the blind follow-up of “Minsk-2” led to the fact that the Russian city of Mariupol, tormented by esbeush searches and repressions by the Ukrainian power structures, remained under the control of Ukrainian military formations, and dozens of Ukrainian artillery batteries of Acacia, Hyacinth-S systems, as well as towed howitzers “Msta-B” and D-30, to this day, have not been pushed aside by the LDNR people's militia corps 40 km from Donetsk-Makeevka and Gorlovsk-Yenakiyev agglomerations, from which shelling of peaceful civilians in the central cities ah and most LDNR villages would be technically unrealizable.
Nevertheless, despite all its absurdity, this statement by the main Russian curator of the Minsk negotiators can be nothing more than a litmus test for definitive proof of the complete incompetence of the Ukrainian side in the long term. In other words, through the mouth of Boris Gryzlov, the Russian side expresses readiness to conduct a constructive dialogue on resolving the situation, but at the same time holds the trump card with a blank card for 1 and 2 AK NM NMNR to conduct a counter-offensive against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of aggression of the latter, and possibly direct participation in curbing the aggression of the Ukrainian formations during an attempt to arrange another genocide of the peaceful population of Donbass. After all, it is already known that no constructive diplomatic methods with an inadequate Ukrainian regime, controlled by the Pentagon, will not have the desired effect. Some other facts presented by our mass media over the past few weeks testify to this well-thought tactic of Moscow.
First of all, this is quite predictable and objective “freezing” of the Kremlin’s comprehensive interaction with other countries of the “Norman Four” with only Vladimir Putin’s limited communication with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, which Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told 18 on April . Here, Moscow gives European “colleagues”, as well as Kiev and Washington a clear signal about the unacceptability of preserving that hackneyed model of interaction, in accordance with which the Russian side continues to play the unnecessary role of the guarantor of “Minsk-2”, while Kiev is rapidly preparing operational and tactical groundwork for the unleashing of another slaughter in the Donbass, the final goal of which is to clean up the entire dissident population of young republics, and then to deploy Western military on the border of the Rostov region contingents, including new PMCs and military police, arrived "tail" for "blue helmets".
Some political scientists, as well as the State Secretary / Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, believe that the restoration of previous contacts in the framework of the “Norman Four” will be a key topic on the agenda of the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for 18 in May with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Indeed, this issue will be touched upon at the negotiations in Sochi, but with a great deal of confidence it can be argued that even theoretically, this discussion will not bring any fundamental changes in attitudes. The current rhetoric and strategy of Moscow in terms of resolving the situation in the Donbass, in the best case for Kiev, will remain unshakable even after the likely “reopening” of the Quartet’s work in June of this year.
But there are no reasons for this “re-reservation” today and it is not expected. After all, it is well known that last Thursday, 10 of May 2018 of the year, in German Aachen there was a meeting of the illegitimate President of Ukraine Poroshenko, Chancellor of Germany Merkel, as well as the President of France Macron already in the format of the “three” without Vladimir Putin, which rather eloquently indicates care of the Norman four ”from the level of a high-ranking diplomatic group to the level of backstage anti-Russian“ pacts ”aimed at finding ways to bypass the Russian veto in the UN Security Council when voting for the introduction of Western European peacekeeping th contingent in the Donbass. Here is another reason for such an unexpected announcement of the possible use of the resolution “Unity for Peace” by the UN General Assembly resolution 377 (V), with the help of which the Korean War was unleashed in the distant 1950 year.
Secondly, even more 5 days ago in the Russian media referring to RBC and sources close to the Kremlin, extremely important information about the possible resignation of Vladislav Surkov from the post of presidential aide in charge of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, as well as “Square” at the negotiations, rushed through with US State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Walker. Displacement from the post may occur on the basis of personnel changes in the presidential administration. This information is also confirmed with reference to the defense structures of the republics of Donbass. Saying this can only be about one thing: the times of “soft negotiations” and “pouring from one empty sieve” in the course of numerous meetings with Walker safely came to an end; and, as the events of the last day show, to convey the position of Moscow to the frantic and Russophobic-minded "chain dog" Mike Pompeo, a personality is quite tough, very sharply reacting to all Western attacks against the Russian Federation.
It is possible that the new "negotiator" on Ukraine will be the plenipotentiary of the President of Russia in the Volga Federal District, Mikhail Babich, who very sharply responded to the provocative case of the poisoning in Salisbury and the subsequent missile attack of the Western coalition on the SAA in an interview with RIA Novosti. At least, it is about his candidacy that various sources in Russia, in the Donbass and in the “independent” speak. Also, this is partially indicated by the news of “Gazeta.Ru” with reference to unnamed interlocutors in the State Duma about the imminent resignation of M. Babich from his previous post.
As you can see, the Russian side is preparing thoroughly for the new stage of confrontation in the Donbass theater of military operations, lacking only the officially announced “Northern wind” in the form of direct military support of the army corps of the republics in repelling the aggression of the Ukrainian army. But judging by what is happening, and such a scenario is just around the corner. Once again, taking advantage of the protracted “slip” of the “Minsk-2” and the “Norman format”, Kiev quickly forced the reformatting of the punitive operation from the so-called ATO into the “Combined Forces Operation” 30 of April, and also took a half-week pause, which resulted in a relative operational silence only until May 9, with brief shelling along the line of contact. On the evening of May 9, during celebrations to commemorate Victory Day, the settlements of Kominternovo, Leninskoye and Sakhanka were subjected to a powerful artillery strike from the barrel artillery (120-mm mortars 2B11 and D-30 howitzers), as well as shots of women, as well as shots, as well as shots, as well as shots, as well as hands and hands. 30А2 guns mounted on the BMP-42 Ukrainian military units. From this point on, the next pseudo-armistice could be put up a cross. After the numbers 2 operational situation has changed dramatically.
The headquarters of the Combined Forces Operations, headed by war criminal Sergei Naev, who had received his higher military education at the Moscow Military University of Culture and Command, ordered the 24 and 54 of the separate mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to open a regular harassing fire on the Gorlovka operational direction, and also to attempt occupation of the village of Chigiri and the adjacent height after the appropriate artillery preparation. As a result, the suburban village of Chigiri, located in the gray zone, which is distinguished by its tactically unprofitable lowland relief with a marshy surface, came under the control of the 24-th brigade, after which the Ukrainian insurgents automatically fell into the affected area of small arms of the units of the DPR People’s Militia Corps, deployed at a nearby height. Approximately such “tactical skills” were demonstrated by Naev and the entire top staff of “OOS” in the simplest local operation on the outskirts of Gorlovka: the next “half-hotel” is on the face, which will be very difficult for Ukrainian militants even at night and with the “greens”, so the VSN units have Armed with a fairly modern thermal imaging systems.
Nevertheless, it is not worth flattering at all. It must be remembered that the number of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the first line of defense is approximately 2,5-3,5 times higher than that of NM LDNR units, and the number of armored vehicles and artillery is 1,5-1,7 times. And even despite the absence of the 2 line of defense, in the hands of the APU there is a trump card like 35 PU and 210 anti-tank guided missiles FGM-148 "Javelin", which can significantly complicate the defensive actions of 1-1 AK NM DNR in the 35-kilometer area steppe area "Telmanovsky isthmus" or, for example, on Debaltsevskogo ON. From the southern approaches to the DPR (especially in the areas of Pavlopol and Belaya Kamenka) now, in the literal sense of the word, one cannot take one's eye, because the continuing artillery attacks on Gorlovka are directed only at distracting the attention of the DPR Defense Ministry from Volnovakhi and the environs of Mariupol, where the most powerful offensive groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were formed .
The inevitable approach of the military scenario in the Donbass theater of operations is also indicated by the extremely unusual trajectory of the reconnaissance flight of the RQ-4B Block 30 “Global Hawk” high-altitude strategic drone with the call sign UAVGH000 during its last 12 mission in May 2018 of the year. The car, as usual, entered the Ukrainian airspace from Romania and proceeded in the direction of Donbass over the Kirovograd and Dnepropetrovsk regions. Immediately, the reconnaissance operation took place not only along the standard trajectory in the form of a “crescent”, limited to the cities of Berdyansk, Kurakhovo and Severodonetsk, but with initial loitering over the north-eastern part of the Kharkiv region.
The last reconnaissance mission of the Global Hawk for 12 in May was not limited to Donbas
This suggests that the command of the US Air Force was extremely interested in the location and movement of armored vehicles and artillery, as well as ground-based air defense and electronic warfare systems located in the Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod regions. Conclusion: an attempt was made to calculate the location of equipment and the time required to transfer units of the 3rd and 144th motorized divisions, the 1st separate guards tank brigade, the 53rd anti-aircraft missile brigade and the 236th artillery brigade in the area of the Russian-Ukrainian border in the event of an offensive of the Armed Forces on LDNR. And this only indicates that the scale of escalation planned at the Pentagon and the General Staff of the Armed Forces in advance provides for the direct participation of the Russian Armed Forces to protect the republics from the new aggression of the Ukrainian army. Fortunately, in this area the units of one of the most modern in the Western military district of the 16th separate electronic warfare brigade are partially operated, which have at their disposal the most sophisticated electronic countermeasures systems (Krasukha-2/4, and possibly SPN-2/4) capable of suppressing the operation of early warning radar and ground reconnaissance MP-RTIP; it is the latter that are the radar "eyes" of the Global Hawks.